India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

pentaiah · Post by **pentaiah** » 01 May 2013 01:51

I think this is god sent opportunity for MMS and Sonia ji
To give good thrashing to PRC if required drop one or two chotus
And win land slide victory in mud term election. No more coalition dharma
Just congress dharma for the next two decades?

A little war now and then us good for everybody

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 01 May 2013 02:29

Prem Kumar wrote:Shyamd: that report & the GOI's action is like declaring a walkover after the first over is bowled. If the Chinese want war, let's give it to them. Escalation - bring it on!

The entire nation will be behind the GOI and our Armed Forces.

That article is talking about some of our options and what the other side can do that were put forward probably by the army. Nothing more. We have time. Its not going to be too difficult to gun 20 men sitting in a tent down.Lets see where the talks take us first (albeit no where so far!).

Tri forces chief, Def min and NSA held meeting on the subject again today after the commanders conference discussing options. Talking with the PRC and preparing at the same time.

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 01 May 2013 02:44

Maybe they are refugees seeking asylum in India and all we need to do is disarm them and give them Indian passports. No need for any action on the ground.

svinayak · Post by **svinayak** » 01 May 2013 02:46

This is a good time for India interest like testing the next Gen (2010 design) n#kes

India interest should prevail and only those groups which look for national interest should be at the center

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 01 May 2013 05:32

China has done this incursion in DBO but expects to land the hammer blow in another sector. Now we need satellite pictures to tell us exactly where they are building up a concentration of forces.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 01 May 2013 06:06

Altair wrote:
Altair. One heavy machine gun will do the trick. But the idea is to settle without force.
And Why?

Here is what it appears like to me.

The Chinese have done the equivalent of putting a chip on the shoulder and are expecting India to knock it down

What does that mean? It means that the 4 or 5 tents are not backed by a heavy rear line preparing for hot war. If that was the case India's response would have had to be to match the heavy forces and prepare for hot war. The Chinese have deliberately kept a light intrusion. That intrusion can be wiped away with very mild military force and that would be the equivalent of "knocking the chip off Chinese shoulder" provoking the response "We had just put a few tents. You could have asked us politely. But you pushed them out/killed them using force. You have aggressive intent. That justifies aggression from our side"

So the way to handle this would be to prepare for hot battle but yet ask them to leave politely. If they leave, fine. If they don't leave, persist with talks and make similar provocations elsewhere. If they increase the provocation then we can say "We have been polite. You are increasing the provocation. You are deliberately being aggressive. We reserve the right to kick you at a time of our choosing"

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 01 May 2013 06:23

Preparing for a hot war on china front is a month long 5000cr million man enterprise stretching back to depots in central and western india, requisitioning of additional trains, vehicles etc. and ofcourse emergency import of shortage items like shells!

Even a localized prep in northern command is a good fraction of the above.

Is the political class prepared for that?

Imo we should prepare the iaf for all out action, but keep it light on the ground and kick them out. If they escalate sure we will lose some territory, but as long as we carry on the fight to logical conclusion i believe iaf will prevail and devastate their ground forces in exposed areas like aksai chin. We can give them a bloody nose and kick them back to the starting line.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 01 May 2013 06:25

Singha wrote:Preparing for a hot war on china front is a month long 5000cr million man enterprise stretching back to depots in central and western india, requisitioning of additional trains, vehicles etc. and ofcourse emergency import of shortage items like shells!

Even a localized prep in northern command is a good fraction of the above.

Is the political class prepared for that?

Singha why are you asking questions that can be construed as d***i shivering?

The way to talk is to say "Yes we are all prepared"

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 01 May 2013 06:26

I am all prepared for my bread omelette breakfast..thats all i can guarantee today

archan · Post by **archan** » 01 May 2013 07:20

pentaiah wrote:What if we import massive amounts of Chinese weapons with our dollars
There by creating shortage if weapons for china itself
No?

enough. stop it. While you may enjoy being a joker, you are not going to be allowed to crap in every thread.

Altair · Post by **Altair** » 01 May 2013 07:40

shiv wrote:
The Chinese have done the equivalent of putting a chip on the shoulder and are expecting India to knock it down

What does that mean? It means that the 4 or 5 tents are not backed by a heavy rear line preparing for hot war. If that was the case India's response would have had to be to match the heavy forces and prepare for hot war. The Chinese have deliberately kept a light intrusion. That intrusion can be wiped away with very mild military force and that would be the equivalent of "knocking the chip off Chinese shoulder" provoking the response "We had just put a few tents. You could have asked us politely. But you pushed them out/killed them using force. You have aggressive intent. That justifies aggression from our side"

So the way to handle this would be to prepare for hot battle but yet ask them to leave politely. If they leave, fine. If they don't leave, persist with talks and make similar provocations elsewhere. If they increase the provocation then we can say "We have been polite. You are increasing the provocation. You are deliberately being aggressive. We reserve the right to kick you at a time of our choosing"

This is not the first time Chinese have made incursions into Indian territory. This may not be the last time either. But if we want to make this a rare occurrence we should demonstrate an aggressive intent in defending our own borders. An unprovocative missile strike at the chinese tents within our borders would send a very tough message for any future incursions.
This will also send a message to Pakis to think about reliability of their hotter than pan, taller than twisters friend.
A soft dosier served with diplomatic subtlety will encourage more such incursions in other sectors in the future by Chinese. This will also encourage Pakis to take some misadventure in some of our blindspots. What will we serve Pakis? More dosiers and send FM to Lahore in a open top bus?

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 01 May 2013 07:45

Adm Sushil Kumar continues the dhoti shivering in indian media ..... "ability to deploy 4 heavy divisions anywhere in the LAC within 24 hrs" "massive airlift" (last I checked their airlift was pretty poor because none of the 35 IL76 signed for yrs ago got delivered)

perhaps ex navy men should stop talking of army issues?

Altair · Post by **Altair** » 01 May 2013 07:50

Blue turban to Red turban- Authorization to fire!!

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 01 May 2013 07:53

as things stand GOI looks about ready to GUBO and concede on following points
- dismantling of tin sheet and brick wall windbreak shelters used by ITBP Patrols to shelter for hostile weather
- a drastic reduction of the periodic fwd patrols
- other gubo initiatives

in exchange for the cheen vacating our own house!
with no promises of future such cases not occurring!

we live in scary times. but then most of the mansabdars of the sultanate became so by sending their daughters to the imperial harem to spend one night with the emperor before joining the free pool..so what we can expect of dilli leadership? nothing.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 01 May 2013 08:41

ajai shukla has a pointed article here on fitness level of service chiefs
http://ajaishukla.blogspot.in/2013/04/w ... ttest.html

let me just say the service most likely to see action does not .... (cough cough)

Yayavar · Post by **Yayavar** » 01 May 2013 08:46

one certainly would want them to look fitter but that is just a slam by Shukla...they are not the ones running up the slopes themselves.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 01 May 2013 09:16

^ true. but a portly CEO will drive culture down the executive suites to atleast three levels below!
anyway its totally OT, so we can fight over this issue in another thread like nukkad

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 01 May 2013 09:29

More OT. Double OT in fact:
1. Were our chiefs unfit last month before the Chinese incursion? Why did Shukla suddenly take note? Is there any form of shivering here masquerading as chiding unfit chiefs?
2. In general the young people of India have become heavier, taller, with bigger muscles and more young people with extra fat. This extends to the army as well. This is a function of higher nutrition

See this video from the 80s (maybe 30 years old). Young Indian soldiers look much more beefy than this nowadays
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E8jW9LlTrZY

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 01 May 2013 09:37

pentaiah wrote:Sometimes I cry that many knowledgeble persons on BRF are so far away from reality...
dont mistake me I do have laughter at such..

Deterent is not bums, a donkey with Tiger skin will not deter anybody, it only brings death quickly...

Deterent is that psychological fear the enemy feels with the unified power of arms, determination, unity in action and thought, the cultural value system of freedom, pride and zeal to fight for the right cause last but not least diplomacy.

India today especially under the current leadership is no way near to project deterent or detegent.

Our Military leadership is in cruise mode for promotions,
Our civil leadership is for amasing wealth
Our political leaderships insatiable lust for power money and riding over the people does not cae for good governance.

there are few islands of people with good old values and patriotism who cant alone by themselves protect the nation.

so this too shall pass, just be ready to mark the India Map with more disputed territory, occupied territory, etc.....

so come back to reality, Our forces are not equiped to take on PRC nor can our coffers afford a war
let us focus on call centers and make few dollars more

This is also off topic, and maybe a personal remark but I cannot help make it. Let us all follow your philosophy so there is no reason to ever do anything. Let us focus on our weaknesses at the expense of doing something. Let us sink into a miasma of inaction.

So we lose. So what? Sir, I would rather be on the losing side with a few people who have the b@lls to act, than be on the winning side with someone who holds your opinions.

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 01 May 2013 09:53

Pranav wrote:Saar, it is mostly a matter of the corruption and incompetence of our own rulers. Why blame vultures for doing their job. So the real war should be between the people and the ruling establishment.

You sound exactly like some old "uncle" guy in a stereotypical Indian family, who, after their girl has been harassed and threatened with rape, sits wringing his hands, and beating his forehead, crying, "ayyayyo, what to do only? It is our own doing, our karma for raising our girls without bounds and limits."

Just saying.

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 01 May 2013 09:59

Pranav wrote:
RajeshA wrote: such logic can go very wrong! It is like - "Why blame the rapist, when the parents did not teach their girl to wear modest clothes?" kind of logic.
So you want to go and fight external enemy while you are still enslaved and controlled by internal enemy?

This is nothing but foolish talk. It is disappointing to see this on BRF.

When we are the aggressor, we have the luxury to choose ideal conditions to fight. When we are attacked, we defend ourselves, and not wait till we consume enough ghee and almonds and spend enough time in the akhada to become strong, and by the way, also perfectly virtuous so that dharma will relent and come over to our side.

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 01 May 2013 10:56

KLNMurthy wrote:
Pranav wrote: So you want to go and fight external enemy while you are still enslaved and controlled by internal enemy?
This is nothing but foolish talk. It is disappointing to see this on BRF.

When we are the aggressor, we have the luxury to choose ideal conditions to fight. When we are attacked, we defend ourselves, and not wait till we consume enough ghee and almonds and spend enough time in the akhada to become strong, and by the way, also perfectly virtuous so that dharma will relent and come over to our side.

Arguably, in India today, some folks are even more enslaved than before 1947. Pre-1947 the colonial rule was at least overt. Now people are under the delusion of freedom while the colonial system continues.

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 01 May 2013 11:04

The recent developments are very disturbing. We are clearly heading for a kargil like conflict, if not a full scaled war. Shiv has rightly pointed out that we should prepare for a war simultaneously as we seek diplomatic resolution.

Virendra · Post by **Virendra** » 01 May 2013 11:04

shiv wrote:The Chinese have deliberately kept a light intrusion. That intrusion can be wiped away with very mild military force and that would be the equivalent of "knocking the chip off Chinese shoulder" provoking the response "We had just put a few tents. You could have asked us politely. But you pushed them out/killed them using force. You have aggressive intent. That justifies aggression from our side"

We have already asked them politely Saar. I'm sure they will remember.
They are in our land. Plain and simple.
We have the right to drag them out, if they don't want to leave on their own feet.

Did anyone hear this Chinese participant at the NewHours debate.
Pardon Arnab for being unable to pronounce Aksai Chin. No time to comment on our defense reporting.

He was using this issue to bring India to negotiation table (PM to PM talks) and also out of nowhere, pulled the so called South China Sea etc into this matter. What gives !!

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 01 May 2013 11:05

pentaiah wrote:I think this is god sent opportunity for MMS and Sonia ji
To give good thrashing to PRC if required drop one or two chotus
And win land slide victory in mud term election. No more coalition dharma
Just congress dharma for the next two decades?

A little war now and then us good for everybody

Why rely on God sent opportunity when you can rely on EVM , Disunited Opposition and you have secular friends , God Sent opportunity can easily turn into Damn We are screwed situation.

Any political leader would walk an extra mile to prevent a war ...... in our case we would walk till North pole and beyond ......you should remember we avoided war even in extreme provocation from Paki ....Chinese act here would look like Babe in the Wood compared to what we are used to from Paki.

Most likely this will be resolved before Chinese PM visit and it will be touted as Diplomatic Victory by GOI and Adherence to Panchsheel will be on the menu for long time to come

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 01 May 2013 11:22

Singha wrote:as things stand GOI looks about ready to GUBO and concede on following points
- dismantling of tin sheet and brick wall windbreak shelters used by ITBP Patrols to shelter for hostile weather
- a drastic reduction of the periodic fwd patrols
- other gubo initiatives

in exchange for the cheen vacating our own house!
with no promises of future such cases not occurring!

we live in scary times. but then most of the mansabdars of the sultanate became so by sending their daughters to the imperial harem to spend one night with the emperor before joining the free pool..so what we can expect of dilli leadership? nothing.

What is important is that the Indian Govt. does not put any of the concessions to paper!

Indians have a weakness and that is that we do not like to go back on our words! We don't want somebody to doubt India's promise! Chinese have no such compunctions! For the others, a treaty is just an intermediate step to consolidate or to lull the other, before they move on to grabbing more. When Indians make treaties, we tend to implicitly invoke Mitra, Varuna, Indra, and the Ashvins as witness!

So I would urge Indians to not accept Indian Govt. making any treaty concerning Bharatiya land and India's borders with any other country, regardless of whether it is a Congress-led govt. or a BJP-led govt. or some other front.

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 01 May 2013 11:29

Pranav wrote:
KLNMurthy wrote:
[saying that we have to defeat the "real" enemies of India first before defending against the Chinese] is nothing but foolish talk. It is disappointing to see this on BRF.

When we are the aggressor, we have the luxury to choose ideal conditions to fight. When we are attacked, we defend ourselves, and not wait till we consume enough ghee and almonds and spend enough time in the akhada to become strong, and by the way, also perfectly virtuous so that dharma will relent and come over to our side.
Arguably, in India today, some folks are even more enslaved than before 1947. Pre-1947 the colonial rule was at least overt. Now people are under the delusion of freedom while the colonial system continues.

Sorry, but more foolish talk of "Yeh aazaadi jhooti hai" variety. When we are attacked, we have an obligation to fight back otherwise we are as good as dead inwardly. I have lived long enough to hear enough condescending blather from slimy "progressives" that "you don't know your real enemies, you need to educate yourself better (i.e., swallow my BS propaganda and accept my leadership)" whenever they are confronted with a fundamental moral issue. It is just a standard commie trick to sap the fighting spirit and morale of the people while pretending to be on the people's side.

Unless it is cover for some devious plan on our side to play for time before we strike a powerful political / military blow to the Chinese, all talk of going after the "real" enemies when faced with Chinese aggression is either rank stupidity or outright treason, in my opinion of course.

In reality, if we don't have the drive to fight an overt enemy staring us in the face, then there is no chance at all that we would ever take on and take down all these secret oh-so-powerful lurking internal enemies. So, for you to make it a precondition of taking on the Chinese is beyond foolish.

I don't want to call you a fool, but the alternative possibility that I see is that you are putting out a hail of reasonable-sounding (but mostly obvious and platitudinous, like we should first get all the facts about the Chinese outpost's position, yaar) verbiage around a fundamentally specious core, with the expectation that people will fall for it.

I admit I know you only by your posts, but I have to say the second possibility makes you seem like something much worse than a fool in my book.

abhik · Post by **abhik** » 01 May 2013 12:51

ramana wrote:Adm Sushil Kumar

http://www.indianexpress.com/news/not-j ... /1109359/0

Not just another border incident.

snip
But the good news is he appears to have bolstered the nukes as the Admiral is saying which we should credit MMS.

The article seems to be suggesting that the MMS Government has used the existing strategic deterrent to down play conventional build up and modernization. Nowhere is he suggesting that the it has actually significantly bolstered the nuclear deterrent (Or did I miss it?). Nor is there any open source information AFAIK to suggest such a thing. All we know for sure is that we only have a Minimum Deterrent who's Credibility still has some doubts. And that not good enough
And as far as the Admiral's contention, if we had say 10,000 nukes with a robust delivery system then I think China would have thought twice before doing ga**d masti like this.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 01 May 2013 17:19

Telegraph: In yesterday's flag meeting the PRC asked for removal Fukche and DBO ALGs. When the first fixed wing aircraft landed in DBO there was immediate flag meeting called by PRC asking for removal. So theory is that their actions are used as bargaining chip. These air fields are being used for transporting supplies to Siachen by helicopters.

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 01 May 2013 17:26

shyamd wrote:Telegraph: In yesterday's flag meeting the PRC asked for removal Fukche and DBO ALGs. When the first fixed wing aircraft landed in DBO there was immediate flag meeting called by PRC asking for removal. So theory is that their actions are used as bargaining chip. These air fields are being used for transporting supplies to Siachen by helicopters.

Well this is obvious given that they were asking us to stop infra on our side. No secret about it.

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 01 May 2013 17:41

Infra was actually only mentioned shelters and other stuff. Not ALGs specifically.

Breaking news is that army chief gave 3 options to CCS:
1. Cut off supplies 2. Set up camp in similar area 3. Aggressive patrolling in aksai chin next to large PLA camp

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 01 May 2013 18:12

What is the free Chinese press saying?

Varoon Shekhar · Post by **Varoon Shekhar** » 01 May 2013 18:35

http://www.timesnow.tv/Debate-China-stu ... 426483.cms

Latest debate on Newshour. Very intelligent, sensible comments by K.Sibal. M.Bhadrakumar explodes at one point, for being allegedly cited as a China apologist. Even swears on national TV! Neither Bhadrakumar nor the CPI fellow denounce or criticise China in the least. For them, it's all about India's national interest, which is best served by being very soft on the matter. This(Newshour) has to be one of the best programmes on Indian TV.

Pranav · Post by **Pranav** » 01 May 2013 18:56

KLNMurthy wrote: Sorry, but more foolish talk of "Yeh aazaadi jhooti hai" variety. When we are attacked, we have an obligation to fight back otherwise we are as good as dead inwardly. I have lived long enough to hear enough condescending blather from slimy "progressives" that "you don't know your real enemies, you need to educate yourself better (i.e., swallow my BS propaganda and accept my leadership)" whenever they are confronted with a fundamental moral issue. It is just a standard commie trick to sap the fighting spirit and morale of the people while pretending to be on the people's side.

Unless it is cover for some devious plan on our side to play for time before we strike a powerful political / military blow to the Chinese, all talk of going after the "real" enemies when faced with Chinese aggression is either rank stupidity or outright treason, in my opinion of course.

In reality, if we don't have the drive to fight an overt enemy staring us in the face, then there is no chance at all that we would ever take on and take down all these secret oh-so-powerful lurking internal enemies. So, for you to make it a precondition of taking on the Chinese is beyond foolish.

I am not saying the the Chinese do not deserve to be resisted. The point is that there is a larger perspective. You talk about treason, but if you ask people like Gen VK Singh, they would probably tell you that the people ruling over you think nothing of committing treason day in and day out. All your exertions vis-a-vis the Chinese tents will ultimately be futile if you don't bother to put your house in order.

But if it is posited that this thread is confined to discussing a symptomatic response, without addressing the underlying disease, then that would be a fair point, which I would be willing to concede. I have no intention of downplaying the need for symptomatic responses.

I don't want to call you a fool, but the alternative possibility that I see is that you are putting out a hail of reasonable-sounding (but mostly obvious and platitudinous, like we should first get all the facts about the Chinese outpost's position, yaar) verbiage around a fundamentally specious core, with the expectation that people will fall for it.

I admit I know you only by your posts, but I have to say the second possibility makes you seem like something much worse than a fool in my book.

What you think about my humble self does not bother me in the least. One is bemused by people getting riled up by the innocuous remark that one does need to have reliable info about facts on the ground, before suggesting a policy.

pentaiah · Post by **pentaiah** » 01 May 2013 19:28

shyamd wrote:Infra was actually only mentioned shelters and other stuff. Not ALGs specifically.

Breaking news is that army chief gave 3 options to CCS:
1. Cut off supplies 2. Set up camp in similar area 3. Aggressive patrolling in aksai chin next to large PLA camp

What is our objective
To evict
To accommodate

None of the options given by COAS
Fall under 1
They fall under 2
Who is the aggressor
PRC
Do we want our sovereignty respected
then evict

The Japanese preempted PRC by sending force to islands
PRC is on our side and now 9/10 law applies

Prem Kumar · Post by **Prem Kumar** » 01 May 2013 20:20

Altair wrote:Blue turban to Red turban- Authorization to fire!!

We should come up with a new terminology in BRF "Throwing in the blue turban", which is the most likely course of action

I dont think I need to explain what that means

harbans · Post by **harbans** » 01 May 2013 20:27

According to former ambassador to China, P. Stobdan, the recent incursion was not a one-off incident, but its forces have slowly but surely been pushing into India since 1980s.

In a startling disclosure to Headlines Today, Stobdan said more than 400 sq km of prime pasture land has been conceded by India to the aggressive neighbour in Ladakh region only. China's aim seems to be to push India to the west of the river Indus.

"From 1980s till 2008, we have lost 45x9 sq km of land in Ladakh to China... Areas where we could go in 80s are out of bounds today for us,â Stobdan told Headlines Today.

He said the ministry of external affairs (MEA) and the Prime Ministerâs Office (PMO) were aware of the slow and steady land grab by China, but were not paying attention to it.

"On ground, China has almost pushed us on the west bank of Indus... China deploys nomads to first sense our presence and their military follows while we deny permissions and decimate our nomads in Ladakh," Stobdan revealed.

http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/chin ... 68364.html

This is just Ladhak, it is hard to imagine how much land we are losing under this so called Border Management Mechanism that is done behind closed doors. This is a major scam and the closed door border management that the Alka Acharya's and Bhadrakumars so relish as a success be done away with major urgency or at the minimum every talk be made public. We are signing away territory after territory in these closed border behind the scene talks..

shyamd · Post by **shyamd** » 01 May 2013 21:13

CCS waiting for a full analysis of the third flag meeting held yesterday before the government firms up its position on the entire issue and takes further action.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 01 May 2013 22:14

Since any action will be to just officialize even more losses the best we can hope for is inaction.

I am sure landgrab has happened in sikkim and arunachal as well hence the vow of omerta between goi and indian army.

member_23629 · Post by **member_23629** » 01 May 2013 22:54

India misreads Chinese incursion, ties itself in knots

NEW DELHI: A group of Chinese troops pitching tents in Depsang Bulge in eastern Ladakh since April 15 has thrown the Indian government into a mass of confusion. As Chinese troops grow roots in an area 19km inside what India considers its own territory and which holds immense strategic importance for the country, crossed wires, leaks and a blame game has taken over New Delhi.

The civilian leadership, comprising both the MEA and the PMO, had initially discounted reports of the incursion. MEA spokesperson, Syed Akbaruddin, has made perhaps the only strongly-worded statement on the issue so far, when he said the Chinese should revert to "status-quo ante". From the beginning it was clear this was no ordinary incursion, or aggressive patrolling that Indians and Chinese regularly engage in these days. There was solid reasoning behind the MEA's decision to raise the decibel level on this issue.

However, this was swiftly overtaken by other voices — foreign minister Salman Khurshid dismissed the incident, variously calling it "localized" and even described it as "acne". At the higher levels in the foreign policy establishment, the more important issue seemed to be preserving the bilateral ties with China. The dominant narrative was not that India would do everything to get the Chinese off Indian soil, but that this event would not be allowed to ruin ties with Beijing.

All voices arguing for a more robust response were successfully hushed. At every stage, it was more important that the new Chinese premier Li Keqiang's visit, beginning May 20, be insulated from this. When the media noise became too loud, the government "inspired" certain strategic experts to write dismissive articles on the incident, saying it happens "all the time". Even Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was advised to say the incident was "localized".

It was becoming clear that the incident was more serious than ever before and was a bigger geo-strategic threat to India. If Li's visit was important to the Chinese they would not have done the incursion barely a month before the visit. The Chinese were clearly testing the Indian preparedness, and it was the most serious incident since Sumdorong Chu in Arunachal Pradesh 1987. India could not possibly let the Chinese stay.

The uniformed brass was busy making own assessments. Beyond dispatching a team of Ladakh Scouts to the area, the armed forces did not take the steps they should have to evict the Chinese. In Delhi, the game in the defence corridors became two-fold — the Army was waiting for directions from the civilian leadership to take any action. Among the civilian leadership, the assessment was the Army was totally incapable of taking on the Chinese juggernaut. Any military action on the Indian part would result in escalation and it could be another 1962 again. That froze all action, while it drove the Indian bureaucrats in Delhi and Beijing to burn the phone lines with the Chinese.

Besides, the paramilitary forces, the intelligence establishment, all started leaking to the media like crazy. Everybody had a partial story to tell, but everybody told it anyway, because that was the only way they were getting any traction. Thus the media knew the outcome — or lack thereof — of flag meetings before the government had a chance to vet it. Inevitably, the media became the villain of the piece. From the district commissioner's office in Leh to bureaucrats and officers in New Delhi, a gag order has been issued.

First, India was caught off-guard. Second, India's intelligence assessment of the incident and its implications has been inadequate at best. Third, while trying to play the good boys with Beijing initially by not taking any action, now New Delhi will be seen to be taking action under public pressure, not because the government has deemed the incident to have crossed a threshold.

An April 2005 Protocol on CBMs between India and China lays out in detail the steps to be taken by troops if they encounter a "face-off" situation. The protocol has been followed in large measure. But this time it wasn't. China had violated the 2005 pact, but if one believes the highest levels of the government, this is just another incident.