India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby RajeshA » 06 May 2013 01:00

shyamd wrote:"There had to be some face-saver for the Chinese,": ToI


Sigh! We should really learn to provide no face-savers to others, especially when they are the instigators of conflicts!

This is simply the height of stupid thinking! What about OUR FACE! Why the hell don't our leaders care about OUR FACE! Or do they think we have none?! Indians want to know when was the last time our leaders showed some balls and forced others to see to it that they pulled back and we were given a "face-saver"!

Face-Savers should never be on the table when the other is the aggressor, the instigator! Let's remember all that China did to give Nehru a face-saver in 1962! They give us face-slaps and we give them face-savers! There is something fundamentally wrong with this mentality!

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby Vinod Ji » 06 May 2013 01:03

prahaar wrote:
Vinod Ji wrote:My feeling is India gets to do chest thumping and china gets the honey!
I don't believe China, under any circumstances, will pull back without achieving its minimum target whatever that is.


Sir, why do you have so much confidence in China's power and so much confidence in India's weakness? Irrespective of the party line, one should not disrespect India's strength.


Prahaar ji
Very provocative way of questioning.
Irrespective it is neither. I AM INDIAN and do not belong to ANY party.
I am an old man, who does not have energy nor time for duals. words "feeling" & "believe" were used to avoid this.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby shyamd » 06 May 2013 01:07

Interesting article:

Mutt mauls troops’ sleep

NISHIT DHOLABHAI
New Delhi, May 3: Locked eyeball to eyeball with the Chinese in icy eastern Ladakh, what’s giving Indian troops sleepless nights is a torment Calcuttans from Shyambazar to Sealdah would instantly recognise.

The incessant howling of a dog.

The mutt apparently accompanied the Chinese soldiers as they intruded into the Daulat Beg Oldi area last month and is allowing neither side to get a wink of sleep at night, The Telegraph has learnt.

Canines are essential companions to patrols from either side on the harsh terrain, but most of these are sturdy mountain dogs. This one, though, is a common Chinese mongrel that apparently followed a Chinese trooper, said a soldier who receives inputs from Ground Zero.

The dog is chained to a Chinese tent at night and, unaccustomed to the harsh conditions, “howls its lungs out through the chilly nights”, the source said.

In the cold desert, where night temperatures dip below minus-10 degrees Celsius, the dog’s howling and occasional barks are apparently the only sounds besides the howls of the wind.

The Indian and Chinese tents are pitched about 100 metres to 30 metres apart, “giving both sides a lot of insight into how the other side is surviving”, the source said.


Apparently, even though the dog occupies an honoured place in the Chinese calendar — 2006 was a Year of the Dog and 2018 will be the next — the Chinese troops tend to get quite miffed as their loyal friend kicks up a racket right outside their tents.

To add to the Chinese troops’ woes, they apparently did not have enough kerosene to keep themselves warm one chilly night, the source said.

The Chinese had first intruded over 20km into Indian territory near the Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) camp at Burtse. ITBP patrols had pushed the platoon-strength Chinese back till they noticed the tents, pitched about 18km from the Line of Actual Control (LAC), on the Depsang plateau.

The Burtse foray seems to have been a decoy to mislead the Indians while the Chinese erected tents at a strategic point. The army and the ITBP have now stopped their regular patrols along the LAC as the Chinese intrusion has apparently blocked the key road through the Raki Nala.

Army sources, though, say that patrolling patterns are flexible and are very much in place.

Till April 14, the ITBP was patrolling five spots known as Point 10, Point 11, Point 11A, Point 12 and Point 13 along the LAC. However, on April 15, China sent its troops close to Burtse, south of the LAC.


The ITBP cannot go behind the Chinese troops lest such a step is seen as an offensive move, sources said. Going behind the Chinese tents without using the Raki Nala road would anyway be difficult as alternative routes are harsher. (as if PRC setting up camps and we subsequently setting up camps next to them is not offensive?)

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby Philip » 06 May 2013 01:09

First,we have to verify exactly where both sides have retired to.Where were the Chinese before the crisis and where have they returned to? We know where Indian troops came from.

There are probably at least three reasons why the Chinese have withdrawn (as they did in '62,Russia and Vietnam).The first is that one can always return,after 'testing the waters".With this incursion,they have had a good opportunity to see how India would react militarily and how we would put to use DBO,etc., the newly operationalised airstrips.

They have also seen how the nation has reacted politically,the incursion beginning to unite the peoplel and the political parties.The strong media coverage of the incursion has helped shape public opinion against the Chinese,when they have squeezed much juice out of the MMS regime's "fruit"!

What has worried the PRC the most is a major diplomatic embarrassment for their new PM,with any cancellation/postponement of his visit to be seen worldwide as a major snub .A stirring in India's lions would also be viewed with some belief by certain threatened nations as a great snub to the Chinese ,plus India as a nation that in unafraid to intervene militarily .Even greater fallout would be if India pursued her sovereign right and severed diplomatic relations ,recognising Taiwan ,the Tibetan got. in exile,whatever.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby SriKumar » 06 May 2013 01:18

Supratik wrote:No if you would like to take AC which India claims to be its own territory or at least enforce the LAC you need to be very strong militarily viz-a-viz China. I am not talking about a few tents. It will depend on economy, governance and will of the Govt. in power. The attempt to match China militarily started really with Vajpayee. So it has been only 15 years. How fast we can do it will depend on the above three factors.
Not sure that you got my point, For India to keep the matter local to Aksai Chin, it must be able to counter China anywhere on the entire border (unless China has a gentleman's agreement with India that any battle will be limited to A. Chin). Note that China amplified its claims on Arunachal P. only in the last 5 years, so China does not seem to trying to keep it local to A. Chin. Ref. the bolded part.... good luck waiting on economy (so what happened in the last 10 years- in India and in China respectively?) , governance (-how's that coming along, by the way?) and will of the govt. in power- this is getting really funny at this point- should I really talk about MMS? (or Sonia?). I got one word for you: Maldives. Yes, if you say that things will change in the future, I'll say: yes, let's all together hope it will.

Until that time, let's celebrate the victory that India can claim since the Chinese withdrew after pitching their tents 19 Km inside the LAC. I think China will be generous in giving India many more opportunities to celebrate such victories in future.

(BTW, after '62 India did start in earnest raised several mountain divisions in a few years, at great cost to its economy at that time. 15 years is not correct. India gave a military response to Sumdurong chu ('87), which was well before Vajpayee- and even then, it was because Gen. Sundarji put his foot down, RG initially did not want the military escalation.).
Last edited by SriKumar on 06 May 2013 01:56, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby disha » 06 May 2013 01:43

shyamd wrote:TOI says: Though there was no immediate official word on what were the exact terms of disengagement but sources said "there was some give-and-take" to resolve the face-off. "There had to be some face-saver for the Chinese," said a source.

Worked out exactly as mentioned before


No Sh8t sherlock! We gave and they took!!

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby member_23692 » 06 May 2013 02:02

Marten wrote:
rsangram wrote:If the Chinese have truly withdrawn all the way back, then we missed this golden opportunity to test(nuke).

If on the other hand they are still in our territory, even a few meters, then we should test quickly, before they withdraw.

Admins, please forgive this OT post:
Sir, are you advocating the test of a nuclear weapon to address incursion on borders that we have failed to mark?
That is not a military solution since the decision is taken by the executive, and not the armed forces command.

Secondly, what would be repercussions of another round of technology and trade bans on the country? At a time when the country is struggling with a rising trade deficit, you're advocating stalling exports to a dangerous point.

What is the point of this nuke test, in specific military and political terms? Would be nice if you could separately list these for our benefit.


Certainly. Again, if the admin wants to remove this post and put it in the appropriate thread, I would not mind. Being relatively new, I cant figure out where to post this.

1. Yes, Sir, I am advocating the test of a nuke to address the Chinese incursion on borders that "not we have failed to mark", but the Chinese have violated time and again. These are not mere "incursion on borders" as you suggest, without even naming China in your post above. These are deliberate and brazen incursions, one of hundreds over the years and have a context to them. First of all, the Chinese attacked and took over Tibet in the 1950s, in an event that in my view is one of the several cataclysmic events in the history of our people. It sent shock waves through the core of the Hindus and was a direct attack at the Hindu (/Buddhist) civilization, fundamentally weakening it and its strategic position. It removed from us a vital extension of our nation, not only the Tibetans who were our own people, being part of our civilizational stream, but also completely exposed us for eternity to the Chinese horde. The result is not only the destruction of the Tibetan people and their culture but a permanent vulnerability for us from China which not only causes us to spend precious billions on our defense but is a constant open wound right through our chest which keeps festering and causing pain, with no sight of it ever abating or healing. Then on top of that, the Chinese attack, in what they call in 1962 an "incursion" and take over thousands of square kilometers of our land, which they continue to hold, violating a border that the Tibetans and not the Chinese had any right to question, if at all. Then on top of that they have since massively supported Paki and locked us in this two front tense standoff, which is again another wound that festers in our body, with no prospects of any solution ever. Then they oppose us on every multi-lateral platform and malign us, causing us all kinds of embarrassment and trouble, including asking the multi-lateral agencies to stop loaning us money for Arunachal. Then they keep indulging in these "incursions on the border" as you call them. I have not even covered the entire context, but I think you get the idea.

Given the nuclear weapons that China holds, and the conventional superiority it has and the superior economy and world standing it has, there is no way for India to retaliate or ever retaliate to defend itself, certainly not in the forseeable future. Therefore, we have to devise a strategy, an asymetric strategy to be able to fight off this menace. Asymetric strategies are deployed all over since the advent of history, by the seemingly weak against the seemingly strong, a lot of time, with great effect. The latest example being the Taliban VS the US. I am recommending using nuclear testing as a asymetric tool to announce to the world that we will make the entire world and the world nuclear proliferation regime unstable by 1) our testing and 2) our proliferating nuclear weapons to states like Vietnam and others, if the world does not pay heed to India's concerns at our border with China and doesnt put pressure on China to give us at least a quiet and settled border. I think this is politically (world politics) a doable thing, if followed properly and accompanied by robust diplomacy and internal resolve.

And as to your second point that we will face technology embargoes etc, I think, that if we are embargoed, we keep upping the ante, keep doubling down on our nuclear testing and proliferation, do a North Korea or do a China of the 1960s, so as to bring the West on the bargaining table and to deter them from putting in too many embargoes. I feel that we are in a much better position than China was in the 1960s when it tried nuclear blackmail and much better position than North Korea now when it is trying that and much better position than Paki, which has been living on nuclear blackmail for at least the last two or three decades. Besides, the West today is at its weakest point in the last 100 years, certainly the last 40, where I dont think, IF WE HAVE THE INTERNAL RESOLVE AND THE STEEL to "eat grass for a 100 years", I dont think the West would want to antagonize a civilizational power such as India too much today at this juncture, given where they stand. Yes, there will be the perfunctory condemnations, and lashing out, and even some embargoes in the short run, but all of these can be "fixed" in due course, as the West keeps getting attacked by the Islamists and the Chinese keep flexing their muscle all over and all around. The Islamists and the Chinese cant help themselves and have a clinical compulsion to act in the manner that they do, and they will not be able to apply strategic restraint vis-a-vis the West to be able to have a cohesive strategic or even a tactical alliance with the West in the long term, to continue to isolate India.

You may agree or disagree with what I have said, and I have said a lot, which is not often said, so I have opened myself up to a lot of disagreement. I hope all will be able to keep it to the level of disagreement and not take it to insults and abuse or personal attacks, as I have tried to do in this post. You asked a question and I have give you the respect of answering. I am sorry, if I could not answer it in a way that you could agree with partially or in its entirety.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby svinayak » 06 May 2013 02:11

SriKumar wrote:(BTW, after '62 India did start in earnest raised several mountain divisions in a few years, at great cost to its economy at that time. 15 years is not correct. India gave a military response to Sumdurong chu ('87), which was well before Vajpayee- and even then, it was because Gen. Sundarji put his foot down, RG initially did not want the military escalation.).


The 1950s was generally a decade of neglect for the
Indian Army.
Because India believed that there was no external threat
to her--with the exception of Pakistan--the national defense
budget was minimal. In the mid-1950s, the Army numbered about
350,000, and there was only minimal growth in manpower over
the next several years; after India's 1962 defeat, the Army's
numbers would leap to 827,000!

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby rajrang » 06 May 2013 02:33

Austin wrote:If Indians did not give up any thing and the Chinese meekly accepted the agreement .....then we can rule out MMS and MEA hand it this must be the Aliens who are often seen landing UFO in the region might have negotiated the deal...they need safe landing zone after all.


Did the US played a behind the scenes role - for the simple reason that they cannot accept China to become the dominant power in the Himalayas (even if India is willing to accept that status)? The recent military exercises in Nepal - involving a large number of countries but pointedly excluding (and therefore insulting) China - would appear aligned with this line of thought. My intuition suggests that the US will contest China for supremacy in the Himalayas from Tajikistan to Myanmar - even if India would rather be a bystander.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby shyamd » 06 May 2013 02:40

disha wrote:No Sh8t sherlock! We gave and they took!!

Nice statement to make but not practical.

India's position last week was we aren't going to hold another flag meet unless PRC withdraw fully and India will not accept any pre-conditions to talk. So what happened in the back-to-back meetings is the question everyone is asking.

To de-escalate, Both sides had to save face which ultimately means the PLA will have to get something in return since it is in the public domain - they don't want to look like they did something wrong (even know we know they did). What exactly we gave we'll find out tomorrow.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby SSridhar » 06 May 2013 04:14

From the reports, it appears to me that the area where the PLA intruded which was in India's possession all along, has now become a no-man's land where ITBP cannot be deployed anymore. This is what we have 'given' to China. What have we 'taken' from China ? The end of the stand-off. This is the 'give-and-take' GoI is talking about. Pathetic.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby RajeshA » 06 May 2013 04:18

SSridhar wrote:From the reports, it appears to me that the area where the PLA intruded which was in India's possession all along, has now become a no-man's land where ITBP cannot be deployed anymore. This is what we have 'given' to China. What have we 'taken' from China ? The end of the stand-off. Pathetic.


So we have promised the bully we would not go into our own lawn now, because he doesn't like our face when he sees us there!

Jai Ho! Singh is Kiing!

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby disha » 06 May 2013 05:30

shyamd wrote:.. To de-escalate, Both sides had to save face which ultimately means the PLA will have to get something in return since it is in the public domain - they don't want to look like they did something wrong (even know we know they did). What exactly we gave we'll find out tomorrow.


That is the point, they escalated and we have to work hard to de-escalate?

Was this not gamed earlier? It was a matter of time, even BR has been predicting that with change of guard at China, there will be some "show of strength"., and they will push and prod. They are doing it everywhere from Bay of Vietnam to North Japan Sea and here they actually won!

We ended up converting "LAC" into a no-mans land. A gaming situation would have been to let it fester till winter, activate the whole border and make it warm if not hot, in winter let the Chinese freeze their assets. That would be a scenario. But then this govt. is all bluster and only gets activated when somebody is raped and common people protest.

In the name of their "face saving" they salami-sliced you! What a shame.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby disha » 06 May 2013 05:41

Ack thoo! when we have f8rts like B.Raman talking about skull duggery but not taking a stance and others eggsperts who are into "babugiri" (not a complement, a babu or ex-babu or son-of-a-babu doing dadagiri via entitlements) explaining GOI position as "give and take" and "face saving" it is all give and give only.

If a troupe of monkey climbs up your mango tree you do not give a ladder or a banana, you bring in either dandas or langurs or both. This a 5 year dehati from desh will understand. And this dehatis pray Hanuman and generally are good to monkeys but also ensure that the dandas are ready and the local madaris with access to langurs are on call. If they can foresee and plan and react on a situation, why cannot GOI? But then the GOIs mantra is #theekhai, let us give something and take nothing.

Simple, LAC has been converted into no-man's land and is celebrated as a win? Shame.

We should have a overtly aggressive policy against China. Period. Talk softly do your business, make money, have item number song and dance, enjoy life but when push comes to shove, have b@ll$ to back up a resolve.

Nothing more to say.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby disha » 06 May 2013 05:44

rajrang wrote:Did the US played a behind the scenes role - for the simple reason that they cannot accept China to become the dominant power in the Himalayas (even if India is willing to accept that status)? The recent military exercises in Nepal - involving a large number of countries but pointedly excluding (and therefore insulting) China - would appear aligned with this line of thought. My intuition suggests that the US will contest China for supremacy in the Himalayas from Tajikistan to Myanmar - even if India would rather be a bystander.


That is not GOI win then, but US win. GOI is spinning at its win when and if the above is true, the foreign policy has been outsourced to US. If that is the case, rejoice, we have lost our freedom. When are we outsourcing governance to US?

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby SSridhar » 06 May 2013 06:17

disha wrote:Simple, LAC has been converted into no-man's land and is celebrated as a win? Shame.

disha, a small correction. It is 750 sq. Kms. adjoining the LAC on *our* side that has been converted into a no-man's land.

A week into the incursion, Shinde said it was "no-man's" land. Obviously, GoI panicked and offered this straighaway to the Chinese. Either the Chinese did not want to accept this generous offer immediately or tried to extract more from a dhmmi GoI, we do not know yet. The Chinese turned screws more on us by refusing to confirm the visit of Salman, a visit Salman Kurshid was anxious to make. Hence the stand-off continued for a while. That was why the MEA was probably confident that it would be eventually resolved.

Xi Jinping has close and deep relationship with the PLA and the new Sprcial representative (SR) for India-China border talks is the tough non-yielding ex FM under Wen Jiabao. This appeasement is going to turn out to be very difficult for India in the future negotiations.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby SSridhar » 06 May 2013 06:30

rajrang wrote:Did the US play a behind the scenes role - for the simple reason that they cannot accept China to become the dominant power in the Himalayas (even if India is willing to accept that status)? The recent military exercises in Nepal - involving a large number of countries but pointedly excluding (and therefore insulting) China - would appear aligned with this line of thought. My intuition suggests that the US will contest China for supremacy in the Himalayas from Tajikistan to Myanmar - even if India would rather be a bystander.

rajrang, I am sure that the US inserted itself into the conflict but I am not so sure if the Chinese would have welcomed it. They would have simply warned the Americans to back off for they are already having a big issue with the US pivot to Asia and the Chinese would distrust the Americans with any honest intentions.

The military exercise was under the auspices of the UN and China did not participate because PLA does not contribute men and material for UN peacekeeping operations. I would assume that it is as simple as that.

Earlier, it was the US policy to leave this region under China's hegemony and hence it was that the Clinton administration asked the Chinese to draft the UN resolution condemning India's Shakti II tests. It was for the same reason that Clinton revealed Vajpayee's secret communication to him to the Chinese. I am not sure if there is a reversal of this policy yet though we know that the Americans want India's robust participation, both militarily and diplomatically, in the Indo-Pacific region.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby symontk » 06 May 2013 06:50

Sushupti wrote:Area under Chinese control rich in thorium

http://www.sunday-guardian.com/news/are ... in-thorium


No wonder why Sandia National Labs showed interest in "resolving" Siachen conflict

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby krisna » 06 May 2013 07:32

With dragon spewing fire and not recognising the border, it may help in the future for India. Only India is insisting on marking the border compared to china. For china it is the PLA which calls the shots since the reign of last military men like deng xiaping ended. PLA likes to keep the pot boiling without overtly spilling it.
It helps to
1) keep the nationalistic sentiments in check inside china,
2) keep a close watch on Tibet,
3) undermine Indian efforts in that direction.
4) show it is the top dawg in asia and second to khanate.
5) keeps pukis happy

what about India --
1) it throws open the question of appeasement policy of India with china
2) reorient the diplomacy and military vis a vis with china
3) not respect the border with china as it is pointless to do so when china does not respect.
4) makes it easier for India to recognise border is with Tibet only and not china.
5) make demands that china vacate the chinese occupied J&K
6) make Tibet a autonomous region free of china
7) intervene in Indochina sea
8 ) make friends militarily with neighbours of china
9) develop economically and militarily over time


overall the chinese actions will strenghthen India
IF

the GOI develops some spine and works in that direction.

or may be a better stronger govt does it.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby ramana » 06 May 2013 07:46

Supratik wrote:......


No if you would like to take AC which India claims to be its own territory or at least enforce the LAC you need to be very strong militarily viz-a-viz China. I am not talking about a few tents. It will depend on economy, governance and will of the Govt. in power. The attempt to match China militarily started really with Vajpayee. So it has been only 15 years. How fast we can do it will depend on the above three factors.



In 1965 the PRC tried to support TSP and claimed illeaal structures put up by India and threatened to use force. LBS told them to dismantle them if they can and force will be met with force. Noting happened.
In 1967 there was a extensive skirmish at Nathu La and India did destroy a lot of PRC bunkers.

Border was quiet for 20 more years till Sumdrong Chu even with US inducing PRC to invade India during 1971 war to relieve pressure on TSP.


Anyway is it clear that the crisis has subsided?

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby disha » 06 May 2013 08:04

SSridhar wrote:
disha wrote:Simple, LAC has been converted into no-man's land and is celebrated as a win? Shame.

disha, a small correction. It is 750 sq. Kms. adjoining the LAC on *our* side that has been converted into a no-man's land.


That is correct. I am just having a rage attack. Cannot express properly.

And GOI did not even factor this into account? This is a simple gaming scenario where even I can think of the following:

PM (me) : Oye DM (Deaf Min)., this new guy in China, what is he going to be like?
DM (Let me check): Logs into BRF and chats up with buddies and finds out Xi is PLA ka banda and Wen is a dog ready to bite. Reports to PM.
PM: DM, if they bite what are our options?
DM: Dhoti Shiver?
PM: #TheekHai.

The point is, after dhoti shiver point, I will do something, if there is a pin prick here - I will put in a pin prick there. Let us see where the red lines are crossed.

But what we have is apologists of GOI coming and trying to say #BheekHai and #TheekHai.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby Prem Kumar » 06 May 2013 08:18

What works to GOI's favor is opaqueness:

a) Keep the people dark on where is the LAC, what's India's claimed area, where do we patrol, where do the Chinese patrol etc

b) Keep the people dark on what was "given" to China for their withdrawal - both short term & long term

c) A compliant media which will incessantly beat the "we won due to Manmohan Singh's tough message by extending his Japan stay" drum.

For now, the only verifiable fact for the mango man is whether the Chinese troops have dismantled the tents or not. And this too needs to come via unofficial Army sources via social media or word of mouth for the people concerned to believe it. For all we know, the Chinese might pitch tents 2 Km inland, instead of 19 Km inland and ITBP might be asked to look the other way and not patrol the area at all.

There is a reason for the information blackout.

If we lose a war without fighting & no one knows about it, did we really lose the war?

P.S. I am looking forward to Chindu's articles tomorrow to know the Chinese thinking. I bet it will be pat in the back to both India and China for "resolving this face-off in a mature fashion that will strengthen bilateral ties between 2 emerging supah-powahs. About how we have deep civilizational linkages and much to offer to each other". There will also be cautionary advice to the media to "stop over-reacting to such minor misunderstandings and show a Khurshid-like maturity."

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby abhijitm » 06 May 2013 08:35

SSridhar wrote:From the reports, it appears to me that the area where the PLA intruded which was in India's possession all along, has now become a no-man's land where ITBP cannot be deployed anymore. This is what we have 'given' to China. What have we 'taken' from China ? The end of the stand-off. This is the 'give-and-take' GoI is talking about. Pathetic.

I think the on going understanding between the two armies is to patrol the area but not to camp or build a permanant structure. Which was duly followed by both of us. The contract was broken by the chinese by setting up the tents. So we too set up the tents. If both the sides have reached the agreement to go back to the previous positions then I think it is okay. It is the possibility of giving up something extra that fears me.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby Kati » 06 May 2013 08:40

If my inside info is correct then in another 5 to 10 years India will be out of Nepal picture. Unkil will be there in waist deep, and making sure that Chinkus don't dare to call the shots there. Don't know whether any one is paying attentions or not, but just in the last three years unkil has suddenly pouring money in Nepal for various social development projects - from aforestation to water purifying projects, from education to healthcare. Suddenly, we see a lot of Nepali students flocking to US schools for graduate studies; - their current numbers compared to past figures are statistically significant. In the last three years US scientists from various US universities visiting nepal has gone up significantly also.....
J
ust keep watching....and see how my prediction comes true in a few years.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby Pranav » 06 May 2013 09:09

disha wrote:I am just having a rage attack. Cannot express properly.

With this govt the best one can hope for is that the damage done is limited. Hopefully another govt will strengthen Indian capacity in multiple dimensions, after which differences regarding the LAC can be settled.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby member_23629 » 06 May 2013 09:19

Kati wrote:If my inside info is correct then in another 5 to 10 years India will be out of Nepal picture. Unkil will be there in waist deep, and making sure that *deleted* don't dare to call the shots there. Don't know whether any one is paying attentions or not, but just in the last three years unkil has suddenly pouring money in Nepal for various social development projects - from aforestation to water purifying projects, from education to healthcare. Suddenly, we see a lot of Nepali students flocking to US schools for graduate studies; - their current numbers compared to past figures are statistically significant. In the last three years US scientists from various US universities visiting nepal has gone up significantly also.....
J
ust keep watching....and see how my prediction comes true in a few years.


This whole Maoist business in Nepal and killing of the royal family was sponsored by Uncle Sam exactly for this purpose. I won't be surprised if Maoists offer Unkil a military base.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby svinayak » 06 May 2013 09:42

Kati wrote:If my inside info is correct then in another 5 to 10 years India will be out of Nepal picture. Unkil will be there in waist deep, and making sure that *deleted* don't dare to call the shots there. Don't know whether any one is paying attentions or not, but just in the last three years unkil has suddenly pouring money in Nepal for various social development projects - from aforestation to water purifying projects, from education to healthcare. Suddenly, we see a lot of Nepali students flocking to US schools for graduate studies; - their current numbers compared to past figures are statistically significant. In the last three years US scientists from various US universities visiting nepal has gone up significantly also.....
J
ust keep watching....and see how my prediction comes true in a few years.


This has come to the notice. It was started in 1990 where Unkil has exploited the grievance of the Nepali people to its advantage. They have setup posts and observation center. also they have started to work on History. The main goal may be to hijak the history of Buddha and historical sites inside Nepal. This plan of peeling away the history of the Indian subcontinent is very strategic so that *one* history of India is destroyed and replaced by social engineered project.

The pretext of watching the chinese is taking a different turn with dominating the region including Bhutan in the future.
It is a colonizing project with gullible population.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby member_20317 » 06 May 2013 09:58

Re. Prem Kumar Post subject: Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into IndiaPosted: 06 May 2013 08:18

Great post there, the 2 km inside Indian territory apprehension is a valid one. Shukla did mention Chinese not having fully withdrawn at Sumdurong chu and G. Partha could not really respond to that.

One thing I admire about Chinese is that they can keep up a fight for a long long time. Just look at the amount of centuries they spent on gobling up Tibet. If the other side gets slack at any point they will start their downfall domino, with no hope of ever coming back into the game.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby member_23629 » 06 May 2013 10:11

The main goal may be to hijak the history of Buddha and historical sites inside Nepal. This plan of peeling away the history of the Indian subcontinent is very strategic so that *one* history of India is destroyed and replaced by social engineered project.


Academics and professors are an essential component of Western neo-colonial projects and have to be treated as such. Their intellectual output should never be allowed to be circulated among the targeted people. It seems every arm of Western society, from historians to movie makers to businessmen, work in sync to spread White Man's agenda of world domination.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby chaanakya » 06 May 2013 10:26

Quid pro quo behind India-China de-escalation?
Rajat Pandit, TNN | May 5, 2013, 11.02 PM IST

NEW DELHI: It seems there was some sort of "a quid pro quo" behind the mutual withdrawal of Indian and Chinese troops from the 16,300-feet face-off site in the Depsang Bulge area of northern Ladakh on Sunday evening.


With India furiously working the diplomatic channels ahead of foreign minister Salman Khurshid's visit to Beijing on May 9, in preparation for Chinese premier Li Keqiang's trip to India on May 20, two back-to-back flag meetings were held between local commanders at Spanggur Gap area between Daulat Beg Oldi and Chushul sectors on Saturday and Sunday afternoons.


By 7.30pm on Sunday, the two forces - with 30 to 40 troops each - had begun to withdraw from the 20-day-old standoff site along the Raki Nala, which India perceives to be 19-km inside Indian territory, after a handshake between the two local commanders at the fifth flag meeting held earlier in the day.

Though there was no immediate official word on what were the exact terms of disengagement but sources said "there was some give-and-take" to resolve the face-off. "There had to be some face-saver for the Chinese," said a source. ( and none for India since we dont have face anyway)

China, since the very beginning and through the first three flag meetings on April 18, 23 and 30, had remained adamant that India should dismantle its forward observation post at Chumar in eastern Ladakh since it overlooks Chinese highways and can detect any troop movement there.

India, in turn, was demanding that the over 32 Chinese troops, who had pitched tents at the face-off site and were getting their supplies through regular vehicular support, should return to their pre-April 15 positions. India was worried about the deep Chinese intrusion in the Depsang Bulge area, a table-top plateau, since it threatened to cut its access to around 750 sqkm area in the region.

The face-off site was just about 40-km south of the strategic Karakoram Pass, which is at the tri-junction of China-Pakistan-India borders, and overlooks the Siachen Glacier-Saltoro Ridge to the west and the Indian observation post in the Chumar sector to the east. ( If you sell off Siachen-Saltoro Ridge to Pakistan the necessity to have Chumar post will cease to exist . Some of us inlcuding most in UPeeA have advocated it as track-II diplomacy. The mistake of such an idea should be obvious to us though. Karakorum pass is important for us as it would need to be cut off during war.)

Though already angry with India's re-activation of advanced landing grounds at Daulat Beg Oldi, Fukche and Nyoma and building of other infrastructure along the LAC over the last four-five years, China had made the dismantling of the Chumar post as a pre-condition for de-escalation.

The Chinese, in fact, had earlier even tried to "immobilize" the surveillance cameras positioned at the Chumar post by cutting wires there. In June last year, Indian troops had intercepted two Chinese personnel on mules across the Chumar post. Though they were subsequently let off, with language being a barrier, China got hugely irritated about the incident. Holding that the two Chinese were from its revenue department, Beijing since then has been pressing hard for the Chumar post to be dismantled.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby svinayak » 06 May 2013 10:27

varunkumar wrote: It seems every arm of Western society, from historians to movie makers to businessmen, work in sync to spread White Man's agenda of world domination.

It was there for more than 150 years. It has been broadcasted globaly with modern media and modern education

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby manjgu » 06 May 2013 11:13

well the deal to me looks like this....

We ( dragon) will withdraw from ur house ( DBO) to our house and u ( elephant) also withdraw from ur own house (DBO). !! and i thought dragons house was also on our ( elephants) land??

What an idea sir ji... !! :eek: :eek:

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby manjgu » 06 May 2013 11:14

and no BJP or anybody else is even asking for the details of the deal?? mera bharat mahan..

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby SSridhar » 06 May 2013 11:32

manjgu, no political party in India has India's interests and those interests alone in their mind. We have a long experience with one political party and we know that quite well. The other political parties which briefly ruled now and then have also exhibited the same after brave words while they were not in power.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby rajrang » 06 May 2013 11:47

SSridhar wrote:
rajrang wrote:Did the US play a behind the scenes role - for the simple reason that they cannot accept China to become the dominant power in the Himalayas (even if India is willing to accept that status)? The recent military exercises in Nepal - involving a large number of countries but pointedly excluding (and therefore insulting) China - would appear aligned with this line of thought. My intuition suggests that the US will contest China for supremacy in the Himalayas from Tajikistan to Myanmar - even if India would rather be a bystander.

rajrang, I am sure that the US inserted itself into the conflict but I am not so sure if the Chinese would have welcomed it. They would have simply warned the Americans to back off for they are already having a big issue with the US pivot to Asia and the Chinese would distrust the Americans with any honest intentions.

The military exercise was under the auspices of the UN and China did not participate because PLA does not contribute men and material for UN peacekeeping operations. I would assume that it is as simple as that.

Earlier, it was the US policy to leave this region under China's hegemony and hence it was that the Clinton administration asked the Chinese to draft the UN resolution condemning India's Shakti II tests. It was for the same reason that Clinton revealed Vajpayee's secret communication to him to the Chinese. I am not sure if there is a reversal of this policy yet though we know that the Americans want India's robust participation, both militarily and diplomatically, in the Indo-Pacific region.


If the US genuinely wants India's robust participation in the Indo-Pacific region, then, the logically the US would want to relieve the military pressure on India from PLA and Pak. After 911, the US has managed to distract Pak away from treating India as its only enemy. Allowing Chinese hegemony in the Himalayas would run counter to having India play a greater role in the Indo-Pacific region. Thus, logically, it would seem that there should have been a reversal of this policy. An Indian military setback in a confrontation with PLA would be unacceptable to the US. That is why the US is supplying ultra-light artillery guns and other equipment to India. They are not supplying these weapons to China.

I also see a US hand in the worldwide usage of the phrase "India and China" in the same breadth in order to reduce China from its super power aspirations to a local great power. Similarly, the widespread usage of the phrase "the world's largest democracy" to refer to India (the second largest country) is meant to insult China, by comparison. These phrases were not coined by Indians and the Chinese should know that. These two phrases are a low (zero?) cost game practiced by the West to lower China's diplomatic clout in the world.

Since end of the cold war the US and the West have been slowly moving in the direction of containing China. As the cold war drew to a close, the US did not need China anymore, the West (during Bush Senior's term) used Tiananmen Square as the excuse to stop large scale arms exports to China. Surely the Chinese would have noted the coincidence of this with the end of the cold war even though T Square was stated as the reason. During Clinton, the US sent two aircraft carriers through the Taiwan straits to warn China to leave Taiwan alone during a crisis when an attack on Taiwan seemed imminent. Under Bush Junior's term, continuing this trend, the US tried to build an alliance with India through the nuclear deal, arms sales etc. - even though he was distracted for many years by Al Qaida. Initially Obama began with a balanced view of China but today this has changed to a US military pivot to Asia.

The conclusion - From being an ally of China in the eighties, the US today is trying to contain China.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby Sri » 06 May 2013 15:54

No deal was struck with China to end Ladakh face off: Sources

"The governments of India and China have agreed to restore status quo along Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Western Sector as it existed prior to April 15. Flag meetings have been held to work out modalities and to confirm the arrangements," said the Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson on Monday.
China also confirmed that the face off in Ladakh has been "resolved fruitfully". "The issue at the border is resolved with larger bilateral interests in mind," it added.


Though the Indian officials are refusing to spell out the details of how the standoff was resolved, sources have said that there was no deal struck between India and China. India used the hysteria over Chinese incursions at home, to press Beijing to withdraw, they added. Sources also said that the standoff was the result of the failure of India and China to exchange maps of the western and eastern sectors of the LAC.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby Philip » 06 May 2013 18:30

X-posted:

One important reason why China decided to withdraw,with "no loss of face" supposedly,but whatever compromise may exist in the fine print,is the situ in the Pacific with Japan.True,they have tucked their tails between their legs and departed! It is a fine moral victory for India,which for once stood firm.The massive pressure upon the GOI/UPA both from the Opposition and from some of its own allies,not to mention the military,probably shook the Chinese mandarins who had not expected such a response from India.I'm also sure that the consequences of not withdrawing,diplomatic,economic and military,of which we on BR have done our bit in elaborating upon,playing our part in the propaganda war,made them retreat...but for the moment.If we are weak,they will return again another time.

The news today that 3 PLAN warships have intruded into Japanese territorial waters indicate that the PRC takes the situ in the Pacific far more seriously than in Tibet/Ladakh.The Chinese would've also remembered the old adage ,not to fight a war on two fronts simultaneously. At the moment,it is sabre rattling "tous azimuth",raising the concerns of nations all across Asia and beyond.What must not happen now is for Salman-the-Cursed to fly to Beijing,kowtow with his Chinese counterparts and snatch defeat across the table by giving away the victory on the ground!


A few articles on the crisis from various analysts:

1. http://newindianexpress.com/thesundayst ... 575212.ece

PMO’s peace disease paralyses foreign policy
By Santwana Bhattacharya & Devirupa Mitra - NEW DELHI

2.
India tested, found wanting
By Bharat karnad
03rd May 2013

A Chinese military move seriously to test India’s resolve has been on the cards for a long time now. But, this is only a gambit by Beijing to see what level of provocation will get the Indian government to act, and a means to establish a baseline for future actions. Alas, the Chinese planners misjudged how much soft tissue there is in India’s China policy, and foreign and defence policies generally, where spine should be.

From the first, the China Study Group (CSG) headed by the National Security Adviser and old China-hand, Shivshankar Menon, which fuels the Ministry of External Affairs’ thinking on the subject and dictates the government’s response whenever China heaves into view, decreed that the brazen armed intrusion be soft-pedalled. Thus, the depth of penetration in the Depsang Valley in Ladakh by People’s Liberation Army troops was initially stated as 8 km, before this figure was revised to 10 km and later 19 km. Now, 19 km is not a distance that small military units “stray across” as much as it is ground covered in a directed mission and yet, the junior minister in the Home Ministry managing the Chinese border with some miserable paramilitary maintained it was a mere “incursion”, not armed “intrusion”. By such hair-splitting is the Manmohan Singh government determined to do nothing?............

3.http://www.deccanchronicle.com/130505/c ... t-doctrine

Milquetoast Doctrine
Ashok Malik | 05th May 2013

4.UPA sweats over foreign policy.

UPA sweats over foreign policy

By Santwana Bhattacharya & Devirupa Mitra - NEW DELHI

06th May 2013 08:16 AM

Foreign policy is a battle of perception and India isn’t on a winning streak.

After the Chinese occupation of parts of Depsang valley on April 15 followed by Sarabjit Singh’s murder in a Pakistani jail, questions are being raised on who is running Indian foreign policy.

Is it the Prime Minister, with his conciliatory attitude towards India’s belligerent neighbours?

According to reports, Sarabjit’s release was not even on the agenda of talks between Manmohan Singh and Pakistan president Asif Zardari last April, though an ailing Pakistani scientist Chisty was released by India on humanitarian grounds. Zardari had campaigned for his release while India kept mum on Sarabjit.

Does the dithering Indian Foreign Minister Salman Khurshid -- whose China visit slated for May 9 is being met with China’s apparent indifference -- have a say in formulating Indian foreign policy?

Is it India’s ineffective foreign secretary Ranjan Mathai, who retires in June and has been unable to take decisions within his own ministry like appointing key envoys who takes the call on India’s international stance?

Or is it the National Security Adviser Shivshankar Menon, the advocate of a soft policy towards China and other neighbours who decided Indian foreign policy?

The divergent dynamics, or the lack of it, has brought Indian diplomacy to its lowest nadir since the Indo-China War in 1962.

Defence Minister A K Antony -- known for his peacenik image -- toed the PMO line on the Chinese intrusion by advocating diplomatic resolution.

However, the Army and the Foreign Ministry were at loggerheads over China and Pakistan.

Defence sources claimed that the Army had told the China Study Group headed by the NSA that, “the first 48 hours after the intrusion was detected were crucial”.

It would have been “easier to evict the Chinese camps in that period, but there was no green light from the top”. But the South Block repeated a single chant -- the Army should stand down and there should be no confrontation on the border.

Dither and Slither

The NSA-led Ministry of External Affairs is hawking peace even as Chinese soldiers are sitting within Indian orders and Indian soldiers were beheaded on the LoC. Manmohan Singh, desperately but ineffectually trying to save his image, is abstaining from opening any other front.

The US pressure to maintain military stability in the region has weakened a pliant India, which has been told to refrain from military action against an election-bound Pakistan. Even symbolic actions like suspending group visas and restricting business visits of Pakistani citizens are not being done in order to prevent Manmohan’s ill-fated peace process from failing.

On Wednesday, the Army chief briefed the Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) and given various options to remove the Chinese, including the use of military aggression. But he was vetoed. This paralysis is seriously worrying the Congress, which faces elections in 2014, having sensed the popular mood against the government after Sarabjit’s killing and the Chinese incursion.

South Block sources say that the abject political failure owes a lot to Menon’s ‘ivory tower’ style. He was India’s Foreign Secretary during the controversial Sharm el-Sheikh talks where India was humiliated by Pakistan. As the opposition BJP and even supporting partner Mulayam Singh opened fire on the UPA for its failure to counter Chinese aggression, or save the lives Sarabjit and Chamel Singh in Pakistan’s jails, the Congress’ war-team at Rakabganj Gurdwara Road had to step in.

It was not the government, but they who uploaded the UPA’s foreign policy initiatives on an unofficial Face-book page on the PM as a last ditch attempt to contain the damage. The dithering government, out of sync with the national outrage on China and Pakistan’s transgressions, and the political backlash they anticipate has not able to promptly cancel Khurshid’s proposed Beijing trip in face of the Chinese aggression.

Pakistan Quicksand

In certain quarters in Islamabad, the message has filtered through that New Delhi will not take any strong step, however big the provocation, as the talks -- lavish lunches to Pakistan Minister -- as per the US blueprint. The PMO directly handles Pakistan policy, thereby ensuring only pliant Foreign Ministers like S M Krishna handled India’s image abroad.

“On Pakistan, Menon is on the same page as Manmohan Singh. They are both inclined to give a degree of leeway to Islamabad, despite its various transgressions, and at the cost of underestimating an enraged public opinion,” informs a foreign policy wonk.

Dove in South Block

The PMO’s captaincy of Indian foreign policy has weakened the Foreign Minister’s authority and given extra muscle to the NSA. Described as “intellectually arrogant” by a South Block colleague.

Sources say that Ranjan Mathai has been so ineffectual that he has been able to appoint only one joint secretary in the MEA. He has chosen to keep quiet on both Sarabjit and the Chinese incursion. Meanwhile, being a China watcher is part of Menon’s family heritage -- his grandfather KPS Menon was the first Indian ambassador to China, so was his uncle. Menon himself has served thrice in Beijing -- and his imprint is writ large on India’s response, which was characterised by the government’s ally Mulayam Singh Yadav as the “biggest humiliation since 1962”.


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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby Prem Kumar » 06 May 2013 21:56

Thanks for sharing that article, Philip.

The pheno-Menon strikes again. The parallels to '62 are scary:

1) A peacenik PM with zero idea of world politics & no interest in the military

2) An intellectually arrogant Menon

3) Chinese incursion

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby Vayutuvan » 06 May 2013 22:09

So it was fruitful for Chinese. That settles it.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby Supratik » 07 May 2013 00:14

SriKumar wrote:Not sure that you got my point, For India to keep the matter local to Aksai Chin, it must be able to counter China anywhere on the entire border (unless China has a gentleman's agreement with India that any battle will be limited to A. Chin). Note that China amplified its claims on Arunachal P. only in the last 5 years, so China does not seem to trying to keep it local to A. Chin. Ref. the bolded part.... good luck waiting on economy (so what happened in the last 10 years- in India and in China respectively?) , governance (-how's that coming along, by the way?) and will of the govt. in power- this is getting really funny at this point- should I really talk about MMS? (or Sonia?). I got one word for you: Maldives. Yes, if you say that things will change in the future, I'll say: yes, let's all together hope it will.

Until that time, let's celebrate the victory that India can claim since the Chinese withdrew after pitching their tents 19 Km inside the LAC. I think China will be generous in giving India many more opportunities to celebrate such victories in future.

(BTW, after '62 India did start in earnest raised several mountain divisions in a few years, at great cost to its economy at that time. 15 years is not correct. India gave a military response to Sumdurong chu ('87), which was well before Vajpayee- and even then, it was because Gen. Sundarji put his foot down, RG initially did not want the military escalation.).


I don't think you got my point. The state of the military is directly related to the state of the economy which in turn is related to governance. The will to use the military depends on who is in power. All 3 have been lacking with the MMS Govt. A conflict with China may not remain localized. You have to defend a huge border against one of the most powerful militaries in the world. Pre-Vajpayee the focus was Pak-centric.


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