India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby Supratik » 07 May 2013 00:18

SSridhar wrote:From the reports, it appears to me that the area where the PLA intruded which was in India's possession all along, has now become a no-man's land where ITBP cannot be deployed anymore. This is what we have 'given' to China. What have we 'taken' from China ? The end of the stand-off. This is the 'give-and-take' GoI is talking about. Pathetic.



From the conflict maps PLA has been patrolling the area even if it is west of LAC. You need a stronger national leadership to enforce the LAC.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby putnanja » 07 May 2013 01:14

India to give up Chumar post for Chinese withdrawal?

Sources in the security establishment familiar with the negotiations and the local topography told TOI that the 21-day confrontation on Ladakh's desolate Depsang plains ended only after the Indian Army agreed to demolish bunkers it had built in the region of Chumar near the LAC.

The bunkers in question are close to what India considers its current border and are part of the proactive measures objected to by the Chinese. It's said that only after New Delhi agreed to concede the Chinese demand to pull down these "permanent" structures, that allow Indian troops to keep an eye on the Karakoram highway, did the PLA agree to pull back and restore pre-April 15 status.

It has been claimed that India has also adopted "intrusive" tactics to counter aggressive Chinese patrolling and temporarily rolling back some measures is not a large sacrifice. It was also claimed that these bunkers were made only as "retaliation" to the Chinese intrusion. The vacation of the strategically located bunkers or "observation posts" -- that keep an eye on troop movements on the Chinese side - could end India's drill of daily border patrols to the "disputed" area, highly-placed sources said. :evil:
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...
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As the standoff entered its twentieth day on Saturday, the Chinese reiterated the demand for demolition of the Indian Army bunkers at a meeting between the local commanders. It was only after this was approved by the highest level on Sunday morning, with the Chinese agreeing to a reciprocal pull back, the Army sealed the "deal" - something which South Block mandarins stoutly denied. :roll:

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby ramana » 07 May 2013 01:22

Somethign is wrong with Indina Army midset. After Gen Thimmayya's exit, IA has been repeatedly surprised by 'infiltration, intrusion" and plain occupation. In 1965 the Rann of Kutch border issue, the August Jammu & Kashmir infiltraion followed by invasion. Then on to Kargil and now Daulat Beg Oldi.
Its the USPSC exam process, the military academy process, the promotion process all promote a certain mindset that does not think but obeys.

I still can't understand how in Kargil the local commander didn't send out patrols in his immediate area which is an essential functioin of a unit stationed at the border.
The excuse was wintertime vacation of border posts. Isnt the DBO incident a repeat of the same with minor variations?

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby shyamd » 07 May 2013 01:42

Undie TV piecing together what happened:
India-China pullback: what happened behind the scenes
Reported by Sudhi Ranjan Sen, Edited by Mala Das | Updated: May 06, 2013 23:52 IST


New Delhi: The end of a 20-day face-off with China in Ladakh came after intense diplomatic pressure, including the threat that India was willing to scale down its relations with its neighbour if the latter did not withdraw a platoon camped on Indian territory since April 15.

The Chinese were reportedly told that New Delhi might cancel External Affairs Minister Salman Khurshid's visit to Beijing beginning May 9, which would cast a shadow on the visit of Chinese Premier Le Keqiang to New Delhi on May 20.

The two countries do trade of at least $90-100 billion (Rs. 5,41,300 crore) a year.

Sources said what might have also worked is an assurance that India would suspend the construction of new bunkers in the Chumar sector of south-east Ladakh, about 175-odd km from Raki Nalla, where the Chinese troops had camped.


India began constructing seven bunkers in Chumar, which is also considered disputed territory, :eek: in April this year. The Chinese reportedly objected as a 2005 border protocol agreement between the two sides allow neither to construct any permanent structure. India has already reportedly constructed one bunker.

The Chinese, sources said, had also objected to aggressive patrolling by the Indian Army which is believed to have cut off the access routes of the Chinese patrols in this sector.

Government sources have insisted that India struck no deal with and gave no concession to Beijing to resolve the border crisis.

"The assurance of suspending, for the time being, construction in Chumar doesn't qualify as a concession to China since both countries have agreed not to construct in the disputed areas," a senior Ministry of Defence official told NDTV.

New Delhi is now keen to renegotiate the 2005 agreement to allow India some room to develop infrastructure.

Yesterday's breakthrough came after the fourth flag meeting between the two countries; they agreed to go back to their positions before April 15. For India, this will mean moving from its temporary camp put up just 500 metres away from where Chinese troops were stationed.

The Chinese have withdrawn from Raki Nalla, 30 km south of Daulat Beg Oldie (DBO), an advanced landing ground built by India in north Ladakh. DBO overlooks the Karakoram Pass and the crucial Karakoram Highway that connects China and Pakistan.


After Chinese pullout, India to increase Army presence along LAC
NEW DELHI: After the pullout by Chinese troops from Daulat beg Oldi area of Ladakh, infrastructure development programme along the line of actual control is expected to be stepped up besides beefing up of the presence of Army there.

Frenquency of patrolling along the LAC is also expected to be enhanced as per the new measures being contemplated by the government, sources said here on Monday.


The government is also planning :rotfl: to give final clearance to a Rs 84,000 crore Army proposal for raising the Mountain Strike Corps along the northeastern borders which will include deployment of IAF assets as per Army's plans, they said.

The force has been working on capability development in the north and northeastern sector of the country in wake of the major modernisation of military infrastructure by China.

Meanwhile, sources said there is a possibility of India re-adjusting its deployment plans in the Chumar area of Jammu and Kashmir, where Indian troops are in an advantageous positions and can look deep into the Chinese territory.

China has been demanding in the flag meetings that India should dismantle its infrastructure built there including some key forward bunkers, where Indian Army had moved in recent times. However, it is not clear as to what extent India agreed to its demands.

The Indian positions in Chumar, sources said, give India the capability to keep an eye on China's all-important Western Highway.

The Chinese have been carrying out incursions and transgressions into the Chumar area considering its location and the Indian positions there, they said.


This is MEA sources speaking:
India denies deal to end China standoff
Rahul Singh and Jayanth Jacob, Hindustan Times Beijing/New Delhi, May 06, 2013


India claims not to have offered any concessions to China on a platter to resolve the standoff in eastern Ladakh.

“Our position was that the status quo of April 15 had to be restored, unconditionally,” insist Indian officials. But New Delhi is learnt to have assured Beijing that it will consider the northern neighbour’s concerns about Indian activities and infrastructure buildup along parts of the disputed border.

China vague about Ladakh standoff resolution, gives no specifics
The details of the negotiations were largely left to the local commanders conducting the flag meetings between the two armies.


Government sources said India had not struck any deal with China to restore status quo ante in the Daulat Beg Oldie (DBO) sector as existed before the April 15 incursion. New Delhi, however, would negotiate a new border framework with Beijing as a step towards resolving the niggling border dispute that has plagued bilateral ties.

The two countries could look at instituting such a framework during external affairs minister Salman Khurshid’s two-day visit to China, beginning May 9, the sources said. The 2005 border protocol has been found to be wanting as it bans construction of permanent structures in disputed areas, leading to disagreements on both sides that have the potential to become conflicts.

India is understood to have agreed to address China’s concerns in southeast Ladakh’s Chumar area where some construction activities have caused unease for the Chinese.

The army has set up forward observations posts, bunkers and deployed surveillance equipment in this area. It is unclear as to what length India would go to in order to accommodate Chinese concerns in this sensitive sector.


It is understood complete disengagement by both sides from Raki Nala in the windswept Depsang flats could have been achieved after the third brigadier-level flag meet in Chushul sector on April 30, but the Chinese side wanted a commitment from “sufficiently high level” that their concerns would be addressed. :mrgreen:

The Chinese pressed India hard, pushing diplomatic activities into top gear. Both foreign offices worked overtime on Saturday and Sunday to map out the finer contours of a simultaneous disengagement to end the three-week faceoff, with foreign secretary Ranjan Mathai and Indian ambassador in Beijing S Jaishankar spearheading the efforts.

The envoy in China went to the Chinese foreign office twice on Sunday, while Mathai was in constant touch with the resident mission in New Delhi as well as the foreign office there. The Chinese finally agreed to the Indian position, but wanted an assurance from a “sufficiently higher level the in government”.

While sources refused to disclose the exact nature of the assurances given to China, they said the commitment could have been made at the level of the foreign secretary or the national security adviser.

New Delhi used the 2002 Barihota border stand-off as a template for determining their course of action.

Stepped up diplomatic engagement led to the fourth and fifth flag meetings on May 4 and 5 in the Chushul sector, after which both sides agreed to simultaneously pull out of the faceoff site.

China had repeatedly asked the Indian Army to stop infrastructure build-up and construction of bunkers in the Fukche and Chumar regions of Ladakh, as a precondition for withdrawing its troops.

They have also articulated concerns about infrastructure build-up, including reactivations of advance landing grounds, in the DBO sector in the north and Nyoma in the east during the last four to five years.

The Chinese have demanded that some forward observation posts, bunkers and shelters in the Chumar and Fukche areas be removed. Its contention is that some of the build-ups along the line of actual control (LAC) are in violation of protocols governing borders that have not been mutually delineated.


But as a result of diplomatic activity, China reportedly agreed to delink the demands for removing such infrastructure from simultaneous disengagement.

Sources said some of these issues could be discussed in future flag meetings and the diplomatic machinery could kick in to find a peaceful resolution.

Indian officials say they can only speculate as to why Beijing decided to trigger this crisis just weeks before the visit of their premier Li Kejiang. "Our sense is that they miscalculated our response," said one. Beijing may have assumed New Delhi would buckle rather than sacrifice that visit and that of Khurshid. Also, in previous border stand-offs, such as 2008 and 2002, the practice had been to resolve the confrontation discreetly. This time, the whole crisis was played out on in the full media glare, something that unnerves the Chinese.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby Prem Kumar » 07 May 2013 03:12

Indian officials say they can only speculate as to why Beijing decided to trigger this crisis just weeks before the visit of their premier Li Kejiang. "Our sense is that they miscalculated our response," said one. Beijing may have assumed New Delhi would buckle rather than sacrifice that visit and that of Khurshid. Also, in previous border stand-offs, such as 2008 and 2002, the practice had been to resolve the confrontation discreetly. This time, the whole crisis was played out on in the full media glare, something that unnerves the Chinese.


So, Indian officials are claiming this is a victory! I would have inserted an ROFL emoticon if I werent seething with anger. Maybe I will do both. :rotfl: :evil:

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby SSridhar » 07 May 2013 03:44

A clearer picture will not emerge until some years later. We still do not have a clear picture of 1962.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby SSridhar » 07 May 2013 03:55

Centre must give exact ground position in Ladakh: Omar Abdullah - BusinessLine
Some amount of clarity from the Government of India, particularly from the Ministry of Defence, would be desired so that we know exactly what the ground position is. But the fact that the Chinese have withdrawn is something we welcome,” Omar told presspersons here.

Referring to media reports about both India and China pulling back troops from the stand-off point at Daulat Beg Oldi sector yesterday, the CM said while the Chinese withdrawal from the area was understandable, he could not apprehend where the Indian troops pulled back from in the area.

“The only doubt one has in mind based on the reports in the media that it was a withdrawal by both sides — both India and China withdrew. I am wondering where India withdrew from and where India withdrew to because this is our territory, this is our side of the Line of Actual Control,” he said.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby ramana » 07 May 2013 03:56

SSridhar wrote:A clearer picture will not emerge until some years later. We still do not have a clear picture of 1962.



SSridhar, From Indian side its a sellout. That is why not one source has name.

And the MoD official is talking through his cap as the neogotiations are done by MEA. So what does he know?

And what is taking the Govt so long to give final approval of the MSC raising. Is ti the commisison they can extract on all the purchases? AKA "Mr Clean" who cant sign a file has been sitting on it for seven long years!

Omar Abdullah also gets it.

The lack of one name in the sources tells you its all black daal.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby shyamd » 07 May 2013 04:21

SSM gave off the record briefing to journalists at 12.15pm. I imagine his words are mixed in those articles somewhere. I think some sell out probably did happened but Notice some of those articles are contradictory about Chushul sector. De-linking from simultaneous engagement and orders going through to dismantle.... I don't get what the PRC will gain from dismantling the shacks in that sector... I suspect it's not really about surveillance of the highway (India can monitor it regardless) but pure troop presence in that area perhaps?

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby Anindya » 07 May 2013 04:23

India to give up Chumar post for Chinese withdrawal?

NEW DELHI: Although the government maintained on Monday that no concessions were offered to the Chinese to end the face off in east Ladakh, India forces appear to have agreed to the removal of bunkers built by the army in Chumar close to the line of actual control (LAC) to facilitate an agreement.

Sources in the security establishment familiar with the negotiations and the local topography told TOI that the 21-day confrontation on Ladakh's desolate Depsang plains ended only after the Indian Army agreed to demolish bunkers it had built in the region of Chumar near the LAC.

The bunkers in question are close to what India considers its current border and are part of the proactive measures objected to by the Chinese. It's said that only after New Delhi agreed to concede the Chinese demand to pull down these "permanent" structures, that allow Indian troops to keep an eye on the Karakoram highway, did the PLA agree to pull back and restore pre-April 15 status.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby pentaiah » 07 May 2013 06:46

Folks during the Kargil war a Fatwa was issued by High Jirga of BR that all product of TSP should be boycotted.
Till this day I have successfully propagated this boycott at every Cocktail and social events that I host or attend. I have at least persuaded 10 to 12 families not buying Ethan Allen products, in addition to clothes (TSP made in Khols) even groceries (basmati rice you name it).

Now my question to high jirga is should I start boycotting Chinese Vegetable Fried Rice, Kung Pao instead make do with Vegetable Pulao, Kurma of course no fortune cookie.

I look forward to and pray that the Fatwa passed by High Jirga of BR right away
(sshh anyway I have to lose weight)

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby SSridhar » 07 May 2013 06:59

ramana wrote:
SSridhar wrote:A clearer picture will not emerge until some years later. We still do not have a clear picture of 1962.


SSridhar, From Indian side its a sellout. That is why not one source has name.

True. What I meant was that the extent of loss, promises given to China etc. to ensure a successful visit by Li Keqing, would not be known for some time to come. Like the atrocities in Balochistan not making it to the rest of the world because of its remoteness, sparseness of population and a blanket ban on the media, we have a similar situation on the question of border management in the eastern and western sectors of the India-China border for the same reasons. Even the CM of the State is in the dark and demanding information openly !

The Chinese want to settle some principles on border demarcation and they are establishing the same through incursions and making GoI concede to their demands. These will be fait accompli in later discussions.

Added: China remaining very silent on the Ts&Cs under which the standoff ended, is possibly at the behest of GoI not to reveal them and embarrass them. That was the only 'give' from China in the 'Give-and-Take Policy'. The rest are all 'Takes' by the Chinese.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby Singha » 07 May 2013 06:59

Your arteries will definitely bless the absence of thick soya sauces and pork meat sire

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby pentaiah » 07 May 2013 08:03

I just cant believe that there is no visionary in private or public service to prevent and if required take a stance to fight aggression.

Remember 1982 Falklands war....
London was 4000 miles away, Falklands sparsely populated Argentina next door, yet the Brits took on Argentine, yes Britain was Nuke power, so are we yes Argentina was/is not

same case with Gibraltor and so many Islands in Pacific Indian oceans

we on the other hand cant stand to own our lands. Man we didn't even put up fight where is the question of enemy fright?

yes SS garu Chinese amenable to Take (out) (with regard to Give and Take, yes we give they take out)

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby SSridhar » 07 May 2013 08:54

pentaiah wrote:we on the other hand cant stand to own our lands. Man we didn't even put up fight where is the question of enemy fright?

pentiah garu, ordinary mortals cannot understand the deep chankianness with which GoI always operates. It has been one heck of a chankianness since 1947. Wait until somebody really really explains the deep theory behind the 'We give and they take' concept.

Added: The enemy is frightened by our inaction because he/she does not know why India was so docile and then begins to fear if there is a possible deep, sinister and violent Indian plan which was not so obvious to them !

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby Prem » 07 May 2013 09:05

SSridhar wrote:
pentaiah wrote:we on the other hand cant stand to own our lands. Man we didn't even put up fight where is the question of enemy [b]fright[/bpentiah garu, ordinary mortals cannot understand the deep chankianness with which GoI always operates. It has been one heck of a chankianness since 1947. Wait until somebody really really explains the deep theory behind the 'We give and they take' concept.Added: The enemy is frightened by our inaction because he/she does not know why India was so docile and then begins to fear if there is a possible deep, sinister and violent Indian plan which was not so obvious to them !


The anguish is because AammRamShyamSighSheshadhariSwamiNathanAyyerReddyUppa is thinking from Desh' point of view while ruling dispesation's main concern is limited to few individulas or close coterie whose interests are cpnsidered above the national interests. Nothing Chanakyan but Chorri-Dakati -Lootgiri demand certain docile domestic enviornment,genetral apathy to be prepetuated so robbing continue .BTW the violence of rulers is reserved for internal use only. They rather be brute on Bharti people than Baharwale enemies/
Apno pey Sitam , Ghairo pey Kaaram
O GOI Bewafa, Yeh Zulam Na Kar
Yeh Zulam Naa Kar.
Rahne Dey Abhi Thorra Saa Bhaaram
Ki Hum Abbhi Bhi Hai Bharat Bhoomi Kay Sons.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby manjgu » 07 May 2013 09:41

i was reading Siddiq Salik's "Witness to Surrender"..a paki view on 1971 war.. and he says its a very poor idea to mix paramilitary units with regular army for mgmt of borders/ boundaries. I think ITBP should be removed with immediate effect and/or be placed under operational command of army. I hope the clowns know how to react next time such a thing happens.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby SriKumar » 07 May 2013 09:45

Supratik wrote: I don't think you got my point. The state of the military is directly related to the state of the economy which in turn is related to governance. The will to use the military depends on who is in power. All 3 have been lacking with the MMS Govt. A conflict with China may not remain localized. You have to defend a huge border against one of the most powerful militaries in the world. Pre-Vajpayee the focus was Pak-centric.
I did get the point in the very first post. So, wait for _another_ 50 years to get things aligned in the right order: governance, followed by economy, followed by state of military. I see many more opportunities to celebrate victories. And pre-vajpayee = Pak-centric is an amazingly broad stroke. Check out what happened to the army in the years after the '62 war, under Nehru/LBS. Acharya posted something earlier about this. The response was China-centric- as one would expect after getting severely hit in a shooting war.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby rohitvats » 07 May 2013 10:04

For the love of god...PLEASE UNDERSTAND THAT CHUMAR POST HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH kARAKORAM PASS OR KARAKORAM HIGHWAY.!!!

Infact, my reading of the geography tells me that Chumar happens to be an area where INDIA has better accessibility and infrastructure than the Chinese. Chinese side is high mountain area while ours is relatively flat with wide valley floor and good roads leading back to rear areas. The famous Hanle observatory is due east of this location.

This is Chumar (marked in red) - http://mapcarta.com/14893546. You can see the geography in the area.

In this map (http://mapcarta.com/14893546) you can see the roundish area which seems to be the 'disputed' territory.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby Philip » 07 May 2013 10:20

Yes Prem Kumar,startling coincidences.What do they say about history repeating itself? The first time a tragedy,the second time a "farce"!

No matter how much spin is put on the "withdrawal",s one wit out it,we stlll have "withdrawal" symptoms.In the larger context as Omar A has reminded everyone,China has had a decade+ of developing infrastructure,upon Indian territory,without even a squeak from India under the UPA,and it is now blowing hot and cold over our puny attempts to rectify the situ. Now with the "Cursed's" visit to Beijing and the arrival of Leaky-King,what further sell-out the disgraced regime of snake-oil Singh will resort to is anybody's guess.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby SSridhar » 07 May 2013 10:33

Work in Progress - Edit in The Hindu

It took several flag meetings on the ground and much diplomatic energy on both sides but the abatement of tension near the Line of Actual Control in Ladakh came not a day too soon. The Chinese troops who had set up tented positions around Daulat Beg Oldi inside Indian territory some three weeks ago have withdrawn; Indian troops who pitched their tents in response to this provocation have also withdrawn. The Chinese withdrawal may be a victory for diplomacy but it is important to remember that the Depsang Plain, located in a far corner of Ladakh, has only reverted to being what it was — part of the unsettled portion of the LAC between India and China. {China also claims Arunachal, so what ? We are determined to make our own land as 'disputed' first before handing them over to China. The Hindu is clearly toeing the Chinese line} What that means is that India and China need to make a push for resolving the boundary question quickly. As a first step, completing the process of exchanging maps depicting each side’s understanding of where the LAC lies is crucial. Unless this happens, such disputes are likely to arise again, and strain the entire gamut of ties. Thanks to the stand-off, Indian public opinion has become suspicious of Chinese intentions to the point of making irrelevant the important progress achieved in the bilateral relationship over the past decade. The proposed visit by Chinese premier Li Keqiang later this month — and the preparatory visit by External Affairs Minister Salman Khurshid to Beijing this week — will be important for restoring a measure of confidence in the relationship.

It is still unclear what caused the People’s Liberation Army to move troops into the Depsang Plain. There is speculation that it might have done so to convey its displeasure at the recent infrastructure development undertaken by India in Ladakh. Given that a diplomatic mechanism already exists to regulate and draw down mutual deployments along the LAC, it would be unwise for any stakeholder on the Chinese side to try and unilaterally force an outcome through provocative actions. Indeed, Beijing must realise that its attempts to resolve long-standing disputes with countries across Asia through coercive tactics will only rebound on itself. {The Hindu has audacity to warn the Chinese ! Wow} As in Japan and South East Asia, in India too such methods are bound to strengthen those who advocate joining hands with the United States in its efforts to counter Beijing’s influence in this region. Of course, the Indian champions of this strategy must realise that notwithstanding the American “pivot to Asia,” the Ladakh stand-off did not so much as elicit a murmur from the U.S. or its allies. This episode has been confirmation, if any was required, that India’s foreign policy, while answering to what is best for the country, must be able to stand on its own feet.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby Rudradev » 07 May 2013 10:46

rohitvats wrote:For the love of god...PLEASE UNDERSTAND THAT CHUMAR POST HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH kARAKORAM PASS OR KARAKORAM HIGHWAY.!!!

Infact, my reading of the geography tells me that Chumar happens to be an area where INDIA has better accessibility and infrastructure than the Chinese. Chinese side is high mountain area while ours is relatively flat with wide valley floor and good roads leading back to rear areas. The famous Hanle observatory is due east of this location.

This is Chumar (marked in red) - http://mapcarta.com/14893546. You can see the geography in the area.

In this map (http://mapcarta.com/14893546) you can see the roundish area which seems to be the 'disputed' territory.


Chumar or Khadki or Ootacamund- YTF are we dismantling/demolishing/closing down ANY Indian military installation anywhere in India to placate the Chinese?

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby Philip » 07 May 2013 11:16

Making sense of the Depsang incursion

From the Chindu by Manoj Jishi,where he also questions the PRC on its decade long infrastructure dev. in Indian territory,but used the crisis as an opportunity for both sides to progress on the issue.

http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/m ... epage=true

Manoj Joshi

China’s new activism on the border dispute provides an opportunity to take stalled negotiations forward

The People’s Liberation Army’s decision to dismantle its encampment on the Depsang plain abutting Aksai Chin makes it a bit easier to assess the motivation and goals of recent Chinese actions.

If the Chinese action on the ground on the Depsang plain, initiated on April 15, is taken in conjunction with President Xi Jinping’s March 29 statement in Durban that the border issue should be resolved “as soon as possible”, we can conclude that China is signalling a new activism in its border dispute with India. This also becomes evident through Beijing’s official statements of the past two weeks that accompanied their three week-long non-threatening, but provocative, military action.

China steadfastly refused to acknowledge that its forces had in any way breached the Line of Actual Control (LAC) but agreed that the issue could be resolved through diplomacy and negotiations. “The two sides are in communication through the working mechanism for consultation and coordination on boundary affairs… for a solution to the incident…” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying told reporters last Friday.

She added that both countries were “committed to resolving disputes, including the boundary ones, through peaceful negotiations and [to] try to ensure that this kind of dispute will not affect the development of the bilateral relations”.

The Chinese action needs to be viewed at two levels. The first is an established pattern where the PLA keeps nibbling at Indian territory to create new “facts on the ground” or a “new normal” in relation to their claimed LAC. They do this, as they have done in the past — occupy an area, then assert that it has always been part of their territory, and offer to negotiate. In this very sector, Chinese claim lines have been varying since 1956. At that time, for example, the entire Chip Chap and Galwan river valleys were accepted by China as being Indian territory. But in 1960 China insisted that these areas were within their claim line and occupied them following the 1962 war. The April 2013 Depsang encampment seemed to be pushing even further westward.

The fact that the border is neither demarcated nor inhabited, and there is no agreement on the alignment of the LAC in many areas, aids this process. We need to keep a sharp watch in the coming months to see if this pattern is repeated in other areas where there are differing perceptions as to the LAC’s location.

Indian build-up

At another level, China appears to be expressing its unhappiness over the Indian military build up on the Sino-Indian border. In the past five years, India has activated forward airfields in the Ladakh sector, completed important road building projects in the Chumar sector, begun work on the road to link Daulat Beg Oldi with Leh, and moved high-performance fighter aircraft to bases proximate to Tibet. In addition, it has raised two new mountain divisions, plans to establish two armoured brigades across the Himalayas and may raise a new mountain strike corps. In other words, the Indian posture is moving from the purely defensive vis-à-vis the PLA in Tibet, to one which could also include offensive action. In addition, India’s strategic forces have begun to mature with the test of the Agni V and the launch of the Arihant.

If you faced a country with which you have a disputed border, you would not be happy about its growing military profile. But China seems to have developed some amnesia here. After all, its own infrastructure and military build up has outpaced that of India’s by at least a decade and a half. In this period, China has developed a railway, an extensive road network in Tibet and Xinjiang. In addition it has deployed powerful forces, which include armour, rocket artillery and battlefield support missiles. They have developed new airfields and have conducted as many as four major military exercises in Tibet in 2012.

It is useful to look back at the last major crisis which took place in 1986-1987 over Sumdorong Chu. This coincided with ‘Exercise Chequerboard’ involving the movement of forces from the plains of Assam to the Arunachal mountains. When the panicked Chinese moved forward their forces, India began Op Falcon and used its heavy helicopter lift capability to build up rapidly across the entire LAC and even deployed infantry combat vehicles and tanks in some areas.

Far-reaching agreements

The result was the 1993 and 1996 confidence building agreements. They are far reaching and important, and yet they have never been seriously implemented. For example clause 2 of the 1993 agreement accepted that there should be ceilings on forces on either side, that the two sides would reduce their forces along the LAC and that the “extent, depth, timing, and nature of reduction of military forces” would be determined through mutual consultations. Article 3 of the 1996 agreement specified that the major category of armaments such as tanks, infantry combat vehicles artillery guns, heavy mortars, surface-to-surface and surface-to-air missiles would be reduced with the ceilings to be decided through mutual agreement.

However, to implement such an agreement required one key step spelt out in Article 10 of the 1996 agreement — that the two sides would work out a common understanding of the alignment of the LAC. But the Chinese have baulked at working this out and so the key clauses of the agreements remain in a limbo.

Indian chicken hawks who have been advocating a military response to the Chinese action on the LAC are wrong on two counts. First, we are in the middle of our modernisation cycle, lacking vital elements such as mountain artillery and heavy lift helicopters. Second, an over-the-top military response to what was a non-threatening military action on the part of the PLA would have needlessly escalated the situation. In the last count there appeared to be five tents and seven men and a dog in the Chinese encampment. In retrospect, the handling of the situation which involved a symmetrical non-threatening military response by Indian forces, along with patient diplomacy, paid off.

The message from China right now seems to be that it is ready to engage India across the entire spectrum, which includes the disputed border. There is nothing in Chinese actions suggesting that they are looking for a fight. New Delhi needs to firmly tell the Chinese not to put the cart before the horse, and that it cannot and will not freeze its border dispositions or its modernisation schemes.

The upcoming visit of Chinese Premier Li Keqiang should be used to push the long pending exchange of maps detailing the Chinese and Indian versions of the LAC as a prelude to working out a common alignment of the LAC in a time-bound manner. Only this will ensure peace and tranquillity on the Sino-Indian border and open up the possibility that the border dispositions are not only frozen, but actually drawn down as per the 1993 and 1996 agreements. This in turn could give life to the stalled Special Representative process which was set up in 2003 to work out a mutually agreed border.

(The writer is a Distinguished Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi)

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby disha » 07 May 2013 12:00

Cutting across all the mumbo-jumbo from the above article:

"But in 1960 China insisted that these areas were within their claim line and occupied them following the 1962 war. The April 2013 Depsang encampment seemed to be pushing even further westward."

It was a take from China.

Guys nothing is going to happen, the food security bill will be passed and India will be re-impoverished. The KHAM (or its equivalent) will be brought into effect, the middle-class will be fighting for its daily existence, the upper-class and elites will be on twitterati. Rest of the jingoes will burst their veins and die a horrible death of stroke.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby disha » 07 May 2013 12:05

shyamd wrote:SSM gave off the record briefing to journalists at 12.15pm. I imagine his words are mixed in those articles somewhere. I think some sell out probably did happened but Notice some of those articles are contradictory about Chushul sector. De-linking from simultaneous engagement and orders going through to dismantle.... I don't get what the PRC will gain from dismantling the shacks in that sector... I suspect it's not really about surveillance of the highway (India can monitor it regardless) but pure troop presence in that area perhaps?


Okay it was a partial sellout (or some sellout), like a woman can be a partial pregnant (or some pregnant).

I get it, GOI apoligists have a new word "partial sellout". In other words, a complete sellout with words in effect to save our honour and dignity, a partial sellout.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby Singha » 07 May 2013 12:24

from Ajai Shukla blog headline.

"No concessions in Daulat Beg Oldi, say government sources"

this reminds me of how Guru Dronacharya was killed by yudhisthira the dharmaraja saying Ashwathama the elephant had been killed.

except a few hundred people in BR, I bet none are even aware where Chumar is ... it aint in DBO for sure.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby Singha » 07 May 2013 12:28

Duryodhana could not be beaten in a fair fight - Bhima struck below the navel and broke his legs
Drona could not be beaten in a fair fight - The dharmaraja took care of that problem
Karna could not be beaten in a fair fight - the farmers curse over the dead cow ...
Bheesma could not be beaten in a fair fight - shikhandi provided the cover
Abhimanyu was attacked by multiple warriors against the code of 1:1 combat
jayadratha was slain under cover of a false sunset
bhagadatta was killed after wounding his huge war elephant supratika, again against the code

it seems in terms of strategy the chinese have imbibed the indian epics more than our rulers have. perhaps these books are not taught in swiss finishing schools and st.stephens.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby rohitvats » 07 May 2013 12:49

Rudradev wrote:<SNIP>
Chumar or Khadki or Ootacamund- YTF are we dismantling/demolishing/closing down ANY Indian military installation anywhere in India to placate the Chinese?


That is something only the GOI can tell...but what is clear that for Chinese to be so bothered and resort to such tactics, Indian positions were causing some real takleef.

And now Ajai Shukla adds to confusion:

http://ajaishukla.blogspot.in/2013/05/no-concessions-in-daulat-beg-oldi-say.html

From early messages coming out of South Block, New Delhi appears to have made no significant concessions in resolving this dispute [The bunker at Chumar which the Indian Army consented to vacate was built as a retaliation to the Chinese intrusion into the DBO sector on Apr 15th].

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby habal » 07 May 2013 14:13

ramana wrote:Somethign is wrong with Indina Army midset. After Gen Thimmayya's exit, IA has been repeatedly surprised by 'infiltration, intrusion" and plain occupation. In 1965 the Rann of Kutch border issue, the August Jammu & Kashmir infiltraion followed by invasion. Then on to Kargil and now Daulat Beg Oldi.
Its the USPSC exam process, the military academy process, the promotion process all promote a certain mindset that does not think but obeys.


test-takers won't win wars. Now i'm beginning to doubt whether they are fit to even fight wars.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby Sanku » 07 May 2013 14:19

The scar of Depsang will remain

Tarun Vijay
The Chinese return to their previous position is a lesson that we will have to learn if we want to live as a proud and powerful nation. A weak and meek government is neither respected by its electorate nor by the neighbours whom it wants to befriend, says Tarun Vijay


I disagree with Shri Tarun Vijay on one count, our electorate has shown no signs that it is aware or is concerned about national issues, our electorate has not moved beyond the equations of simplistic electoral calculus, held in thrall by snake oil salesmen.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby shyamd » 07 May 2013 14:31

disha wrote:Okay it was a partial sellout (or some sellout), like a woman can be a partial pregnant (or some pregnant).

I get it, GOI apoligists have a new word "partial sellout". In other words, a complete sellout with words in effect to save our honour and dignity, a partial sellout.

I said "I think" i.e. guessing - we still don't know what took place - do you know what we gave up or didn't for certain or are you still guessing like the rest of us and the media?

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby krishnan » 07 May 2013 14:33

ToI has an article saying we agreed to dismantle the bunkers and stop all activity in return for their return..

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby shyamd » 07 May 2013 14:38

Yeah there is another article saying that the request was de-linked from the agreement to withdraw and we are considering it in future meetings. One article says we are going to update the 2005 agreement to allow for Chumar shacks to stay.

Another article from TOIlet - positive spin
How India played hardball with China
Indrani Bagchi & Rajat Pandit, TNN | May 7, 2013, 01.46 AM IST

NEW DELHI: After initial diffidence and a sense of confusion, India had to play diplomatic hardball to get China to withdraw its troops from Depsang Bulge in eastern Ladakh, which officials claimed was secured without giving any concessions to China, even though New Delhi has agreed to bring down a structure that was erected as "retaliation" to the Chinese incursion.

After the withdrawal, Indian and Chinese officials are expected to meet in the next few days under the rubric of the working mechanism to work out a new set of operating procedures along the 4,057-km Line of Actual Control (LAC). "We will discuss peace and tranquillity on the LAC," said officials.

As flag meetings failed to resolve the face-off which happened after Chinese troops pitched tents in the area, the government decided to abandon a soft approach to China, said officials. In Beijing, Indian ambassador S Jaishankar impressed on the Chinese that not only was India ready to cancel the visit of foreign minister Salman Khurshid to Beijing, it was also willing to cancel the visit of the Chinese premier Li Keqiang to New Delhi on May 20.

The political initiative to take a harder stand was led by defence minister AK Antony, while foreign secretary Ranjan Mathai worked with the army chief to ensure that the Chinese understood that India was ready to escalate matters, if necsaary. In the cabinet meetings, it was Antony's voice that carried the government opinion. Both PM and foreign minister Salman Khurshid had taken a much softer approach.

India insisted Beijing withdraw because they had violated a 2005 protocol. Within the government there were those who were worried about an escalation. However, India apparently had a precedent - in 2002, the NDA government had tackled a similar situation at Barahauti in the middle sector with a tough stand.

India, however, may be ready to agree to a Chinese demand to negotiate a new mechanism on border management. This was a demand by the PLA in response to India's border build-up. India was reluctant earlier but as a result of the standoff, negotiations on this may start, said sources. However, Antony is believed to be reluctant to go down that path.

While the high level visits are still on, the government has now lost the enthusiasm for the Chinese premier's visit. It will go through, and it is important because this is the first overseas visit of the new premier. But with the Depsang incident fresh in their minds, the Indian government will find it difficult to go the extra mile for this relationship just now.

The MEA spokesperson said on Monday that India and China have agreed to restore status quo ante along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in the Western Sector of the India-China boundary as it existed prior to 15 April, 2013. While the Chinese side took down their tents, the Indians retreated from the face-off position. In addition, India agreed to bring down a structure that was built on April 20 as part of the trade-off with the Chinese troops.

"There was no deal," said sources. "There is nothing that will stop our efforts to improve infrastructure on the border." The government is taking credit for getting the Chinese to withdraw within three weeks while it took about seven years to get them out during the Wangdung crisis at Sumdurong Chu in Arunachal Pradesh.

Army sources said, it would have to "open" more access routes to the table-top plateau at Depsang Bulge, which became the face-off site between rival troops at an altitude of 16,300-feet.

After the Chinese intrusion 19-km deep into Indian territory on April 15, ITBP and Army troops had to stop their patrolling of the sector on the two available routes going through the Depsang plains and leading up to the strategically-located Daulat Beg Oldie (DBO) and Karakoram Pass to the north.

The Chinese move, as earlier reported by TOI, threatened to cut off access to almost 750 sq km area in northern Ladakh since the Depsang plains are the only flat open land needed for accessibility to the region. ``We will have to slowly open more access routes to the region as well as step up coordinated patrolling with ITBP. If one access route gets blocked, then the others can be used," said an officer.

The military also thinks there will also be the need to build more forward observation posts and other infrastructure in the region, both for surveillance as well as sustaining long-range patrols. China, which itself has bolstered its military infrastructure along the LAC in a major way for well over two decades now, will obviously not be happy with it.

India's re-activation of the DBO, Fukche and Nyoma advanced landing grounds and construction of some posts along the Line of Actual Control as well as troop reinforcements in Ladakh over the last five to six years has proved to be a major irritant for China.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby shyamd » 07 May 2013 16:09

3.46 pm: China has gained from the recent border row in Ladakh, PLA troops didn't retreat as much as they intruded into Indian territory: Sources


Read more at: http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/brea ... 69662.html

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby rohitvats » 07 May 2013 16:09

ramana wrote:Somethign is wrong with Indina Army midset. After Gen Thimmayya's exit, IA has been repeatedly surprised by 'infiltration, intrusion" and plain occupation. In 1965 the Rann of Kutch border issue, the August Jammu & Kashmir infiltraion followed by invasion. Then on to Kargil and now Daulat Beg Oldi.Its the USPSC exam process, the military academy process, the promotion process all promote a certain mindset that does not think but obeys.

I still can't understand how in Kargil the local commander didn't send out patrols in his immediate area which is an essential functioin of a unit stationed at the border.The excuse was wintertime vacation of border posts. Isnt the DBO incident a repeat of the same with minor variations?


It is a sad day when a senior member of BRF makes such posts.

I could write a point-by-point rebuttal of the above - even Brigadier Surinder Singh was partially correct about winter patrols - but then, it would be a wasted exercise. The post above is product of thought process with preconceived notions...nothing can really change that.

And the tragedy is that this ill-informed post will be picked up by others to write more inane posts.

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby Pratyush » 07 May 2013 19:57

now we are a nation of delials. first it was a denial that the italian marines got a deal. now the denial that prc got a concession.

in both cases we were the wronged ones.


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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby Philip » 07 May 2013 20:14

Heard the latest? The Chinese haven't retreated in fact,they've just removed the tents and gone back out of sight a few km,not the entire 18km that they've intruded ,while getting India to dismantle its surveillance post! If true,so much for the smart and tough diplomacy from the "Cursed".

On Ramana's post,I concur.Why have we slipped into such a defeatist mentality especially with respect to the dragon in recent times? Kargil was a different case where we were taken by surprise,but with the hindsight of Kargil and the repeated "intrusions",actually Chinese land grabbing, the Army Chief,should've given local commanders strict orders to to resist any intrusion ,especially one as deep as this one! Secondly,where are our forward positions ,markers,bunkers,whatever,defending what we claim to be the LOC? The Govt. of the day should've aeons ago ordered the IA to plant its stake/flag where it mattered,esp. in key areas of the border.

The sad fact is that the political leadership capitulated ages ago to both Pak and China and the sordid mess involving Gen VKS's age ,charges and counter charges,reeked of political favouritism because of the multiple scams including defence and the filthy lucre to be made by promoting pliant officers to high posts..The leadership of the armed forces instead of roaring like lions and tigers and making their voices felt within their bounds of limitation,are on the contrary mewing like kittens.We are seeing in Railgate and Coalgate what is happening all across the board and defence is no exception.What else can one expect from the "Bofors familia" ?

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby ramana » 07 May 2013 20:14

rohitvats wrote:
ramana wrote:Somethign is wrong with Indina Army midset. After Gen Thimmayya's exit, IA has been repeatedly surprised by 'infiltration, intrusion" and plain occupation. In 1965 the Rann of Kutch border issue, the August Jammu & Kashmir infiltraion followed by invasion. Then on to Kargil and now Daulat Beg Oldi.Its the USPSC exam process, the military academy process, the promotion process all promote a certain mindset that does not think but obeys.

I still can't understand how in Kargil the local commander didn't send out patrols in his immediate area which is an essential functioin of a unit stationed at the border.The excuse was wintertime vacation of border posts. Isnt the DBO incident a repeat of the same with minor variations?


It is a sad day when a senior member of BRF makes such posts.

I could write a point-by-point rebuttal of the above - even Brigadier Surinder Singh was partially correct about winter patrols - but then, it would be a wasted exercise. The post above is product of thought process with preconceived notions...nothing can really change that.

And the tragedy is that this ill-informed post will be picked up by others to write more inane posts.


Please oblige. The record shows that time and again IA is suprised by others who occupy Indian land. Thrice in 1965:Rann of Kutch, J&K Infiltration, TSP Second Armored div. But for Lt Gen Harbaksh Singh, Amritsar was to be evacuated by high command.
Kargil and many lesser events.

Second I dont have preconcieved ntotions and am willing ot let the facts speak for themselves.

Please do inform for this is a forum and not a bulletin board. We are all willing to learn and be informed.


Thanks in advance.
ramana

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Re: India-China War 2013 - Trigger: Incursion into India

Postby Singha » 07 May 2013 20:27

whatever be the political orders from shameless politicians, it is a black day and loss of face for IA for sure.


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