Just a quick calculation for kilo class vs Next gen AIP subs
Price per unit is US$200–250 million .China paid approx. US$1.5-2 billion for 8 Project 636 Kilo class submarines (wiki)
consider cost increased from that point say approx 300-350 million (
so for 3.5 billion we can get 10 kilo class subs (new & improved over earlier design) + they will start delivery after 3 years of contract (vietnam)for 11-12 billion $$ we can get 11/3.5=31 new kilo class.
the only question in consideration is AIP , how important has AIP become for Submarines nowadays .
can a non AIP submarine be a good option for IN.
considering that for same amount six submarines are to be built + cost escalation + delivery date problem + new technology absorption problem + training problem + many more others
31/6 = 5(approx)
so for 1 AIP sub we can get 5 kilo class.
even if endurance of 1 AIP submarine is 3X of non AIP sub. we are still at profit.(also at AIP speed is limited & sub can't run from enemy subs)
kilo class has all the punch we need for Indian navy so attack capability is not in question + kilo class sub is feared by most strong navies due to its capability to disappear in thin air (water its a sub
+ Nirbhay(ver. 2.0) could be configured in future to be fired from Kilo class (no tech. knowledge just saying )
Views............. abt is there a possibility of swift decision by Mr PM to go for such a contract with Russia
Points to note
1. Navy needs Subs quick.
2. Cost could be decreased depending on units of purchase(31 is a lot).
3. Mr.Pm is not really a western guy.
4. Kilo has all the tech. & punch that IN needs.
5. slipping of delivery date is normal phenomena in Indian shipyards.
6. Tech. absorption will mean at least 5-6 years before we see our precious AIP sub(non scorpion)(again being polite).
7. if contract is signed now we can start getting subs from 2017 , for AIP Next gen sub we can't get before 2020 & by the time our SSN fleet might start to grow so long distance patrol could be handed over to them.(& non AIP low endurance can start to protect shores).
8. We don't have a concept of expeditionary force in last 1000 years we have not attacked any one & will not attack preemptively any country . our whole goal of Armed forces is based on defensive stands.