Mihir wrote:Ooh, more estimates! Given how spectacularly the project has overshot previous cost and time estimates, I wouldn't put much faith in these. And I find it hilarious that the JPO and Lockheed don't have a clue as to how they are going to tackle the 700+ problems, but they come up with confident estimates of how much it would cost to fix them
I don't think this debate is leading to a conclusion because you refuse to produce and commit yourself to any concrete figures, preferring an entirely rhetorical approach to the issue.
For example, you claim that the approach of concurrency employed is 'bloody expensive'. Now I don't know how many zeros there are in 'bloody expensive'.
And when I produce official figures that show the cost as a mere $6 mil/unit (down from $8.5 mil), you simply rubbish them without deigning to furnish even unsupported numbers from your end.
The only figure you repeatedly restate is that is it has 700+ problems. We both know that for an aircraft running on 10 million lines of code built by 1500 suppliers in 10 countries, that figure is meaningless unless you provide some context. How many problems should
an aircraft of this type have had at this stage of development? How severe is the average 'problem'? Jitter in the HMDS is a problem, as is
using an unsuitable grade of plastic in fasteners for cockpit instrumentation, but they're hardly comparable. At what pace are the problems being addressed? How many have been solved so far?
But I'm going to assume that was just happenstance, not a deliberate adoption of a 'Sanku-esque' method of debate.
By your estimate
(you can choose to support it with references, or not) how do each of these go-
1. How much does a flyaway F-35A cost today? (In $M)
2. How much will it cost in 2015?
3. How much will it cost at post-LRIP?
4. At what development block will it achieve IOC (basic combat capability)?
5. At what development block will it achieve FOC?
6. What year will it achieve IOC?
7. What year will it achieve FOC?
8. What do you expect the cost of concurrency to be?
I hope you'll commit to yourself to figures (based on your personal analysis of course) and not bypass the questions with more rhetoric.