West Asia News and Discussions (YEMEN, gulf)

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 05 Jun 2017 15:07

The cut-off of Qatar is a pretty dramatic development. It is not merely a "diplomatic" dispute. It could have serious strategic implications across the board - from energy to air travel to inter-Arab relations as a whole.

I'm struggling to understand what the real dynamic is. The rationale which the other GCC members and Egypt have given for cutting off from Qatar could have been used a year ago. Why now? Very peculiar. People are talking about Trump's visit, but it does not make much sense. The biggest US base outside the US is in Qatar I think (Al Udeid - the only place outside the US that the Space Shuttle can land). Relations are tight. Not significantly less tight than US-Saudi relations. I'm beginning to suspect that the Trump was played by the Saudis... I mean properly played.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 05 Jun 2017 15:19

what does Saudi gain from Qatar isolation that too by antagonising US deeply ? ^

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 05 Jun 2017 15:26

I am think crown prince Salman's another signature move ... to assume leadership and "punish" a weak adversary and "appear strong" against Iran
.
he did this to yemen. ofcourse it blew up and he had to go find cannon fodder mercs from african coast to carry on the fight...

elements of the US deep state spoiling for a war with iran could also have bypassed the POTUS and assured him of backing.

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 05 Jun 2017 15:39

IndraD,

Saudi is not antagonising the US by this, just confusing the heck out of it, unless this was agreed in some way during Trump's visit. It makes no particular sense, at least from the timing point of view. The Qataris themselves seem perplexed by the intensity and multi-country nature of the action.

This could actually mean war between Saudi Arabia/Egypt against Qatar with the UAE/Bahrain playing bit roles. Not kidding people. Sounds weird, but there it is.

I mean the sudden and dramatic nature of it is actually unprecedented, despite occasional relationship frictions in the past, including border clashes. But this is "weird" for lack of a better word. High level visits were going on between Qatar and Saudi, and things seemed normal. Everyone attended Trump's summit.

Something of a very confrontational nature must have happened behind the scenes in the last 3 weeks.

Falijee · Post by **Falijee** » 05 Jun 2017 17:24

Qatar Crisis: Saudi Arabia, U.A.E., Bahrain and Egypt Cut Ties With Gulf State Over 'Terrorism'

IMO, this is nothing new in the Ummah World ; Muslims in general and Arabs in particular have been known to react and over-react . This has happened many times in the past. Their alliances keep shifting , like the proverbial "shifting sands of the desert" . If I recall correctly, many Arab "brethren" cut their diplomatic ties with Egypt, when Sadat signed the Peace Treaty with the "Arch Enemy Of The Arab World" . And we are currently hearing rumours that the Saudis are in contact with the Israelis over how to contain Iran . Who knows what is going to happen five years down the road. Kiss and make up ! . But their long -term agenda as far as the kaffir world is concerned, has not change !!!

abhik · Post by **abhik** » 05 Jun 2017 18:10

Muslim Brotherhood is bad terrorists for the Saudis but good terrorists for the Qataris.

Falijee · Post by **Falijee** » 05 Jun 2017 18:23

Maldives severs diplomatic ties with Qatar

Read sometime ago, that the Saudis were wooing Maldives and had offered "financial support" - and had purchased some private islands for "fun" - to this poor nation, who will be "most affected" by climate change. But did not know that they they have become "Ghulam" or "Abdul" of Saudi Arabia

Bhurishravas · Post by **Bhurishravas** » 05 Jun 2017 19:39

Qatar has been promoting Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. That is reason Sisi has done it.
Monarchies have been trying to get Qatar to stop this as Muslim Brotherhood is opposed to Islamic monarchies.
Instead of paying heed, Qatar has been hobnobbing with Iran The Qatari emir called and congratulated Rouhani in a clear snub to the arab monarchies over their attempts to isolate Iran. Finally, the Saudis have had enough of this.

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 05 Jun 2017 20:22

Need to watch how does this dynamics play out for
1. Indian diaspora
2. oil market: As clear fissures between OPEC would mean difficulty in setting fixed output targets. We should use this opportunity to negotiate good oil deals out of them

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 05 Jun 2017 20:29

Falijee wrote:Qatar Crisis: Saudi Arabia, U.A.E., Bahrain and Egypt Cut Ties With Gulf State Over 'Terrorism'

IMO, this is nothing new in the Ummah World ; Muslims in general and Arabs in particular have been known to react and over-react . This has happened many times in the past. Their alliances keep shifting , like the proverbial "shifting sands of the desert" . If I recall correctly, many Arab "brethren" cut their diplomatic ties with Egypt, when Sadat signed the Peace Treaty with the "Arch Enemy Of The Arab World" . And we are currently hearing rumours that the Saudis are in contact with the Israelis over how to contain Iran . Who knows what is going to happen five years down the road. Kiss and make up ! . But their long -term agenda as far as the kaffir world is concerned, has not change !!!

very astute observation!

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 05 Jun 2017 20:37

Yemen & Libya have also cut off ties with Qatar.

https://www.ft.com/content/3c6b7224-49d ... 42b9791d43
Very informative and precise re Qatar crisis

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 05 Jun 2017 20:54

Speculations that Qatar is anticipating fall of Saudi seems far fetched ...in that case why so many Gulf & African countries have lined up behind Saudi and not Qatar?

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 05 Jun 2017 22:12

IndraD wrote:what does Saudi gain from Qatar isolation that too by antagonising US deeply ? ^

US is in no position to be "antagonised" under Trump as it is very confused right now about who its friends and enemies are. Even worse, Trump doesn't even know that there is confusion.

Under Obama, Saudi under its deputy crown prince was frustrated in its attempt to take the driver's seat in the US-Saudi relationship. Saudis always had a problem with Muslim brotherhood, and Qatari support for it. MB is the "civilized " and "democratic " approach to Islamist domination. If successful, it would necessarily take down the Saudi monarchy, which keeps itself going by nurturing first AQ and now ISIS as "worse" alternatives.

My first reaction on seeing the news of the break with Qatar was that Saudis felt free to act once they got a personal measure of Trump and his entourage including the great genius McMaster. It confirmed for them that Trump is an actual moron, and more importantly, a paper tiger, and US strategic equations are in a total and complete shambles.

They were probably waiting for that confirmation to pull the trigger on open enmity with Qatar, Iran and the whole Muslim Brotherhood "Islamic Democracy " movement (which has the potential to unite middle class shias and sunnis under some sort of quasi-modernist umbrella, slightly more liberal than Iranian "democracy", looking a bit like paki "democracy" with its very tenuous shia-sunni bhaichara.)

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 05 Jun 2017 22:30

Qutbist Muslim Brotherhood : Qatar :: Wahhabi/Salafist ISIS and AQ: KSA

The Qutbists were being propped up by the Hillary Clinton State Dept as the new "third alternative" group to claim the middle-ground political space in West Asia between the established socialist authoritarian Arab nationalists (e.g. Ba'ath leaders and Gaddhafi), whom the West was busy undermining and deposing, and the Wahhabi/Salafists like AQ and ISIS. Hence the Clinton State Dept pursued all kinds of questionable policies such as: deposing Gaddhafi, propping up Mohammed Morsi in Egypt, financing all manner of Salafists against Assad (weakening both poles so that a Qutbist "third alternative" could be injected in the middle ground that came progressively up for grabs).

Huma Abedin and her family were at the core of managing this project on the American side.

Other players interested in claiming the "Middle Ground" include Iran (has made alliances with other identity groups like Kurds, Lebanese, and Alawite Ba'athists, but still carries the millstone of non-Arab Persianate identity and Sh'ia religious identity around its neck); Erdogan of Turkey (may succeed if AK party can expand beyond the limitations of an ethno-linguistic "Turkish" identity and put on a more pan-Islam face).

The Clintonistas' dog in this fight was Qutbist MB, headquartered in the proxy state of Qatar. All this time the Saudis kept quiet and went along for the ride, hoping the US would at least get rid of Assad and open up some political space in Syria where the Saudis could then stake their claims via proxies like ISIS, Al Nusra etc. They stayed quiet during the uncertain first four months of Trump, not knowing how engaged he was going to be in the region.

In addition to the electoral defeat of Clinton, the recent Trump visit to KSA seems to have given the Saudis the reassurance they needed to show their cards, and openly oppose the Qatar-based, Clinton-backed Qutbist "third-alternative".

Remember the photograph of Trump, Salman, and Al-Sisi all holding a glowing orb during the recent visit of the POTUS to Riyadh. Salman was hoping for (and got) reassurance that Trump would be strongly and actively anti-Iran in his policy posture. But Al-Sisi was there to lend his voice to Salman's, in asking that the US eschew any compact with the Qutbists as a "third alternative" in the way Clinton and Huma Abedin would have preferred.

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 05 Jun 2017 23:02

For many years Qatar has held positions on various issues which are are odds with the Saudis; Support of the Muslim Brotherhood, support for Hamas as opposed to Fatah, establishing Al-Jazeera which has a mandate to criticize all other oppressive regimes in the region including the Saudis except of course Qatar's own Al Thanis, continuing a working relationship with Iran out of necessity because Qatar and Iran share the Gas Field which makes both of them among the largest producers of natural gas/LNG, a long simmering dispute over islands with Bahrain etc. The desire to smack down Qatar has been around for decades but has not happened because of US pressure and adroit maneuvering by Qatar's prior rulers, Hamad Al Thani and before that his father Khalifa Al Thani. IMO the Trump Administration has been comprehensively played by the Saudis. Notice the flurry of visits to the White House by Mohammad bin Salman, Deputy Crown Prince, KSA, Mohammad bin Zayed, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi, Abdel Fatah el-Sissi of Egypt prior to Trump's visit to the region. All of this plus the relative inexperience of the current Qatar ruler Jassim Al Thani who has taken over in 2013? and his relative youth. He is <40?

By the way Sultan Qaboos of Oman also did not attend the Islamic summit in Riyadh. And Oman in addition to Qatar is also opposed to the creation of a Sunni bloc to oppose Iran.

Bhurishravas · Post by **Bhurishravas** » 06 Jun 2017 03:08

We think of GCC and it's leaders as idiots n monkeys who like big golden cars and are spoilt moneybags.
When we think beyond that, we look at wahaabi Islamic ideology and servility to the west. No more.
We need deeper analysis to understand why they do what they do. For eg. the Muslim NATO has a clear objective. It is to counter the al-rafida. The Shia iran. Obviously, it is their top priority. This can be used.
Understanding the GCC monarchies will go a long way in helping us shape our policies vis a vis them. At BR , we have already resigned ourselves to, "No use talking about these retarded uncivilised barbarian monkeys".

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 06 Jun 2017 03:17

Bhurishravas wrote:We think of GCC and it's leaders as idiots n monkeys who like big golden cars and are spoilt moneybags.
When we think beyond that, we look at wahaabi Islamic ideology and servility to the west. No more.
We need deeper analysis to understand why they do what they do. For eg. the Muslim NATO has a clear objective. It is to counter the al-rafida. The Shia iran. Obviously, it is their top priority. This can be used.
Understanding the GCC monarchies will go a long way in helping us shape our policies vis a vis them. At BR , we have already resigned ourselves to, "No use talking about these retarded uncivilised barbarian monkeys".

this year itself when Saudi king went to Indonesia he carried his personal fleet of 500 members, with gold escalator, 50 chef, several wives (at age of 80) , Saudi is a country where women can't drive, despicable human rights records, high number of capital punishment, all men council of women etc etc ...what do we assume of such a country?

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 06 Jun 2017 08:36

Prince Sheikh Milk-Shake Whatzit has a private jet - An A-380!!! With a gold throne as his official seat, solid gold stuff all round.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 06 Jun 2017 08:48

read the article one of the 'sources' is militants themselves..

https://www.ft.com/content/dd033082-49e ... 42b9791d43
The $1bn hostage deal that enraged Qatar’s Gulf rivals;
Doha reportedly paid al-Qaeda affiliate and Iran to win release of royal hunting party

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 06 Jun 2017 09:09

Falijee wrote:Maldives severs diplomatic ties with Qatar

Read sometime ago, that the Saudis were wooing Maldives and had offered "financial support" - and had purchased some private islands for "fun" - to this poor nation, who will be "most affected" by climate change. But did not know that they they have become "Ghulam" or "Abdul" of Saudi Arabia

Maldives is a deeply Wahabized nation. Zahir Naik and likes are beamed into homes day after day there. So it is not surprising that they joined Saudis.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 06 Jun 2017 12:29

Has Trump given the go-ahead for a Saudi-led invasion? The US already has a massive air base in Qatar from which it can rapidly send in airborne troops to "secure" the base (fig leaf purposes).While on land,the Saudi led camel caravan,led by an infamous Paki general, may play the role of a Muslim wannabee "Orenz of Barbaria! With the Yanquis so firmly entrenched in Qatar,there's precious little that the Qataris can do to stop the Soothis invading like Saddam did to Kuwait! This time however,there will be no UN sponsored mil force to evict the Soothis,head of the UN's Human Rights council whatever!

The Qataris are between a rock and a v.hard place. The Soothis want them to surrender immediately or be swept into the Gulf waters. Once upon a time the Kuwaiotis were the most detested Arabs in the Muslim world for their arrogance.Now it is the Qataris who are the envy of their jealous Muslim neighbours,especially a bankrupt Soothi Barbaria who now have to pay the Donald around $300B for their toys and fireworks! The moolah will come from Qatari coffers.That;s the deal the Soothis will be telling the Qataris,if Thani and co. ant to keep their A-380s,gold thrones,et al.

https://sputniknews.com/middleeast/2017 ... -invasion/
Saudi armoured vehiclesNext Step - Invasion? Why Saudi Arabia Moved to Cut Ties With Qatar © AFP 2017/ KHALED AL-SAYYED
MIDDLE EAST
04:51 06.06.2017
Topic: Persian Gulf Disarray: Arab States Sever Relations With Qatar (47)
A think tank head has told Sputnik that Saudi Arabia had severed the diplomatic ties with Qatar in preparation for a full-scale invasion of its neighboring country.

"The Saudis have two goals: First, to get Qatar into a subservient relationship that is comparable to slave labor. There are to be no half measures. Second, the Saudis are eyeing the massive Qatari reserves of cash. They want it," he said.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 06 Jun 2017 13:48

there are good number of indic engineers in rasgas qatar...apart from construction sector.

Bhurishravas · Post by **Bhurishravas** » 06 Jun 2017 14:29

IndraD wrote:
Bhurishravas wrote:We think of GCC and it's leaders as idiots n monkeys who like big golden cars and are spoilt moneybags.
When we think beyond that, we look at wahaabi Islamic ideology and servility to the west. No more.
We need deeper analysis to understand why they do what they do. For eg. the Muslim NATO has a clear objective. It is to counter the al-rafida. The Shia iran. Obviously, it is their top priority. This can be used.
Understanding the GCC monarchies will go a long way in helping us shape our policies vis a vis them. At BR , we have already resigned ourselves to, "No use talking about these retarded uncivilised barbarian monkeys".
this year itself when Saudi king went to Indonesia he carried his personal fleet of 500 members, with gold escalator, 50 chef, several wives (at age of 80) , Saudi is a country where women can't drive, despicable human rights records, high number of capital punishment, all men council of women etc etc ...what do we assume of such a country?

Who cares if he carries 500 or 5000 members?! Our goal is to achieve our foreign policy objectives. While we are willing to work on the Iranians who are no less jihadi types, we arent willing to work with GCC monarchies. We dont want to understand them and we dont want to understand their motivations, goals etc.
When Modi visited UAE after Paki-UAE breach, it was initiated by the sheikhs. Not by us. King Salman has been phoning Modi and has also been cooperating in extraditing some terrorists. But we would rather just sit on out tight asses and wait for that all giving phone call from Dubai rather than work to achieve something.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 06 Jun 2017 15:14

>>But we would rather just sit on out tight asses and wait for that all giving phone call from Dubai rather than work to achieve something.

it is wrong to state that one fine day UAE decided to work with us because of their relation with TSP going south. a bunch of carrots and sticks have been applied by namo and doval behind the scene to get anything. such demands and actions are never put in public domain to give people a fig leaf of H&D and save face before the domestic nobles and boyars. unelected arabi satraps rule partially by fear (mukhabarat) and partially by grand spectacle and air of command - handing over well connected criminals to a foreign state does not keep that show going.

we also play along and show our respect to these satraps , because the labour market, food exports and arabi sovereign funds inflow of investment benefits our economy. not making a huge show of humiliating them in public is a small price to pay - albeit people are left unsatisfied when mysterious arrests are made at nepal border than someone brought back in chains on a emirates flight to T3

Oman is a interesting case. by history and culture they are the arabian sea trading nation, like the phoenicians in the Med , perhaps not a warlike raiding bedouin culture ... they are most in tune with indic interests and refrain from prince salman type adventures. they also host perhaps the 2nd biggest US/UK base in the region - Thumrait

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 06 Jun 2017 15:20

btw do indian oil/gas engineers still work in iran? during the 70s oil boom my uncle was telling of the fabulous salaries someone got there (compared to govt sal here). i would imagine with a much bigger and well educated pop they dont really need foreign help to keep things running.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 06 Jun 2017 16:15

UAE is being implicated more than Saudi for latest fall out by Al Jazeera mouth piece of Qatar govt..

UAE demands guarantees before mending Qatar ties
"We need a guaranteed roadmap to rebuild confidence after our covenants were broken," UAE state minister for foreign affairs Anwar Gargash said on Twitter.
Gargash accused Doha of turning to "money and media and partisanship and extremism" in a series of tweets early on Tuesday. Qatar has denied the allegations

Israel has firmly supported Saudi move to isolate Qatar.
Turkey & Kuwait are trying to play peace broker.

vinod · Post by **vinod** » 06 Jun 2017 16:22

Yep, they are after the UAE ambassador to US.

The latest action originates from this hacked emails issue. As soon as this got published, the crisis began
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/06/h ... 56229.html

I wonder who the hackers are in reality... Russians or Qataris or Saudis or US or UAE? For what?

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 06 Jun 2017 16:52

>>Israel has firmly supported Saudi move to isolate Qatar.

a sure sign the US deep state was well aware...DT may or may not have been.

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 06 Jun 2017 20:49

It was a hack and then a counter hack.

Somebody hacked the Qatar News Agency and published remarks supposedly made by the Emir of Qatar in which he allegedly says, "Iran is a great Islamic power and one should not go against it", also, "we have good relations with Israel", and "Hamas is the true representative of the Palestinian people".

Then the counter hack to embarass the UAE when the email account of the UAE ambassador to the US was hacked and the contents were sent to The Intercept.

Collusion between UAE and pro Israeli think tank in US

So this is regime change in Qatar if the Al Thanis do not come to heel. With CENTCOM headquartered in Qatar there is nothing Qatar can do.

But Qatar under the Al Thanis was one place where the Israelis were welcome to visit, as was Hamas. India also has a good equation with Qatar acting as a conduit for Track 2 with Taliban etc.

I think the Saudis and UAE were just fed up of Qatar punching above it's weight and being a general pain in the a** and conned DT into painting Qatar into the same corner as Iran. With DT and his entire top team being completely anti Iranian, Qatar became dog meat. Also shows how ruthless the Israelis are. The one country in the GCC where they were welcome and they are ready to throw them to the dogs to get at the Iranians.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 06 Jun 2017 20:57

overall the common thread is that everyone wants a confrontation and war with Iran. except oman, iraq and syria...perhaps turkey too.

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 06 Jun 2017 21:00

Singha wrote:overall the common thread is that everyone wants a confrontation and war with Iran. except oman, iraq and syria...perhaps turkey too.

And Qatar happens to be in the wrong place at the wrong time and is a victim of this Drive by Shooting.

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 06 Jun 2017 21:03

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/06/t ... 01513.html

Trump has come out openly in support of the Saudi/Emirati/Bahraini move.

I think war or clashes of some kind will happen in the next 60 days, if the situation is not defused immediately. War may be the objective though.

But the oil price, even if it goes up, will only go up temporarily.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 06 Jun 2017 21:04

NYTIMEs - this is big since qatar probably imports all manufactured goods and FOOD as well

Maersk Says No Longer Able to Ship Qatar Bound Cargo
By REUTERSJUNE 6, 2017, 11:18 A.M. E.D.T.

LONDON — The world's biggest container shipping line, Maersk, is no longer able to transport goods in or out of Qatar after Arab countries imposed restrictions on trade with the Gulf state, the company said on Tuesday.

Shipping lines transship cargoes from the port of Jebel Ali into Qatar, which is dependent on imports by sea and land for its needs.

A Maersk Line spokesman said: "We have confirmation that we will not be able to move Qatar cargo in and out of Jebel Ali."

"We expect disruptions to our Qatar services. The situation is very fluid," the spokesman said, adding that Maersk would notify customers about alternative options as soon as possible.

(Reporting by Jonathan Saul; editing by David Clarke)

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 06 Jun 2017 21:07

Qatar is being comprehensively blockaded GD. All vessels, sea and air and air movement have been curbed, and in some cases totally cut off. To be frank, this looks like nothing short of a takeover attempt by Saudi, with UAE backing.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 06 Jun 2017 21:11

US News Outlet Market watch:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres- ... 6-05/print

Rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East should be good for a pop higher in oil prices, right? Not necessarily.

Oil futures saw a knee-jerk rise after Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates and Egypt broke diplomatic ties with Qatar in a coordinated move, accusing the country of backing terrorist activities. But the bounce didn’t last, with crude slipping into negative territory in early U.S. trading hours. Yemen’s Saudi-backed government followed suit later.

But the tensions still have important implications that could affect commodity and financial markets in the days and weeks ahead.

West Texas Intermediate crude for July delivery CLN7, -0.40% on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the U.S. benchmark, fell 26 cents, or 0.6%, to settle at $47.40 a barrel on Monday, after logging deeper losses earlier in the session. August Brent crude LCOQ7, -0.59% the global benchmark, declined 48 cents, or 1%, to $49.28 a barrel. On Tuesday, WTI was down 11 cents to $47.19 a barrel, while Brent was 16 cents lower at $49.35.

Simply put, Qatar isn’t a major player when it comes to crude. Though a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, the country produces just over 600,000 barrels a day, or around 2% of total OPEC output. It is, however, the world’s largest exporter of liquefied natural gas.

What sparked the rift?

Tensions between Qatar and its Arab neighbors, most important, Saudi Arabia, have been running high for years. Qatar’s backing of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and elsewhere were seen helping fan the flames of the so-called Arab Spring in 2011. Doha has also offered support to Iran-backed Hamas and has served as a haven to groups such as al-Qaeda-linked Syria Conquest Front and Afghanistan’s Taliban, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Saudi Arabia and its allies have fallen out with Qatar before, most notably in 2014, but moved to repair the rift. The current rupture comes after Qatar’s state-controlled news agency published comments attributed to the nation’s emir that praised Iran. Qatar later denied the emir made the remarks and said the state news agency had been hacked, but state-linked media continued to publish the remarks, news reports said.

Relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran have been strained for decades.

“The catalyst for the recent rupture was Qatar’s softer stance on Iran and decision to reach out to Iranian President Rouhani in the wake of his electoral success. With this action, Qatar had in essence, crossed Saudi Arabia and UAE’s two most important regional red lines,” Croft wrote.

What does Saudi Arabia and its allies want?

The Saudi-led alliance is unlikely to back down without some change in the Qatari government’s orientation and policies, including the expulsion of Qatar-based Hamas and Taliban leaders and wanted Egyptian clerics, wrote Firas Abi-Ali, senior principal analyst at IHS Markit, in a Monday note.

That would be a tall order, however, for Qatar to fill, Abi-Ali wrote. Qatar “is likely to initially attempt to create the illusion of complying without fully doing so, but this will likely trigger a more stern response,” he said.

The conflict potentially puts the U.S. in a bind. Saudi Arabia is the closest U.S. ally in the region, while Qatar is home to a major U.S. military base that is instrumental in the air campaign against ISIS.

U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, speaking in Sydney, said tensions have been building for some time but played down the rift.

“We certainly would encourage the parties to sit down together and address these differences,” Tillerson said.

As for the energy implications, the spat isn’t expected to present a near-term threat to regional energy security, Croft said.

Egypt remains unlikely to close the Suez Canal to Qatari tankers and Doha remains “firmly part of the coalition of the willing supporting OPEC production cuts,” Croft wrote.

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 06 Jun 2017 21:13

UAE has banned any ship coming to and from Qatar from using even it's anchorage facilities off Fujairah which ships do if their loading/unloading in ports further up the Gulf is delayed. So yes, this is an economic blockade. Supermarkets in Qatar will soon start experiencing food shortages if not already happening. And then expats will start leaving.

sooraj · Post by **sooraj** » 06 Jun 2017 21:26

If oil prices go up India will have to interfere, Indian economy is doing good with low oil price.

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 06 Jun 2017 21:28

Another Iraq Saddam like situation in making? Saddam had ful backing of state department to go to Q8. And rest is history. but I have feeling that Iran will come to help Qattar. So you have all elements of prolong on-off war. US entering at right moment.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 06 Jun 2017 21:35

JE Menon wrote:Qatar is being comprehensively blockaded GD. All vessels, sea and air and air movement have been curbed, and in some cases totally cut off. To be frank, this looks like nothing short of a takeover attempt by Saudi, with UAE backing.

i read qatar airlines is using iranian airspace and iraq->turkey to run flights west. other airlines might soon suspend.

if expats leave then gas production will grind to halt.

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 06 Jun 2017 21:35

sooraj wrote:If oil prices go up India will have to interfere, Indian economy is doing good with low oil price.

At the best we will be providing humanitarian assistance in evacuating our and other countries peepal