West Asia News and Discussions (YEMEN, gulf)

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 06 Jun 2017 21:38

^ Iran has agreed to supply food and essentials to Qatar..but how long will this un natural alliance last seems to be key..

Regarding India - Saudi relations: not only under Modi govt ( who are working hard to improve relations), even previoulsy India has enjoyed good rappo with both Iran & Saudi.
Recently Op Rahat led by Gen Singh in Yemen, and several evacuations executed well by MEA in ME is only a pointer to this..Just to add soon after last plane took off from Yemen with Indians, airport was bombed by Saudi AF, obviously India must have maintained close link with Saudi.
Syed Ibrahim has become Doval's right hand and it is understood he keeps visiting Riyad.

The growing strategic arc between Riyadh and New Delhi was evident in the fact that Saudi Arabia was, in September 2016, one of the first countries to condemn the terrorist attack at Uri that lead to death of 18 Indian soldiers. This was an unexpected development, given the traditional pro-Pakistan position of Saudi Arabia on matters pertaining to Kashmir. Their 2016 joint statement made it quite clear that India and Saudi Arabia are seeking greater intelligence sharing to combat terror http://www.e-ir.info/2017/03/13/indo-sa ... overnment/

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 06 Jun 2017 21:40

And the impact on flights from India to Qatar:

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 010268.cms

"The UAE has told Indian carriers that their aircraft overflying or crossing its airspace on India-Doha route must take its permission before doing so. If they allow, it is okay. Otherwise flights from places other than north India like Mumbai and the south will have to take a much longer route: fly north over the Arabian Sea, enter Iran and then fly straight over the Persian Gulf to Doha. The same route will have to be taken on return if the UAE denies permission," said the operations head of an Indian airline.

The other big worry for Indian carriers is that Bahrain is the alternate airport for their aircraft headed to Doha. Now if an Indian aircraft has to divert for any reason, it will not be able to fly direct to Qatar from Bahrain. "We are making plans to fly to some nearby place in Iran and then approach Doha from there. Flying a diverted aircraft all the way back to India is not a viable option," said an Indian flight route planner.

sooraj · Post by **sooraj** » 06 Jun 2017 21:41

Will Russia remain neutral in this spat???

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 06 Jun 2017 21:55

Nop. Russia for Iran and Qatar. Russia has to continue "wtf,who care about USA" attitude. It is good chance for them to poke sole world power.

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 06 Jun 2017 21:57

Meanwhile Gas supply from Qatar to indian not affected.
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ind ... 002349.cms

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 06 Jun 2017 22:41

alternate view from a media house sympathetic to Qatar--reasons behind recent spat http://www.middleeasteye.net/columns/wh ... -621030574

The first motive is that both Mohammed bin Salman, the deputy crown prince of Saudi, and Mohammed bin Zayed, the crown prince of Abu Dhabi, see Trump as an opportunity to finish the job started in June 2013 when Morsi was toppled. The counter-revolution against freely elected governments has not been going that well.

The second motive is a personal one. By launching an attack on Qatar, they aim not only to silence external opposition, but internal forces as well. In Bin Salman’s case, silencing opposition within the royal household is a crucial step he has to make, before he can displace his elder cousin, Mohammed bin Nayef, as crown prince.

By hitching themselves so firmly to Trump’s wagon, Bin Salman and Bin Zayed think they have bought themselves an insurance policy

The third motive for attacking Qatar goes further than that. They could actually want to see Qatar itself disappear as an independent state. That may explain why the UAE is campaigning hard in Washington to move the US base out of Qatar.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 06 Jun 2017 23:18

ldev wrote:And the impact on flights from India to Qatar:

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 010268.cms

"The UAE has told Indian carriers that their aircraft overflying or crossing its airspace on India-Doha route must take its permission before doing so. If they allow, it is okay. Otherwise flights from places other than north India like Mumbai and the south will have to take a much longer route: fly north over the Arabian Sea, enter Iran and then fly straight over the Persian Gulf to Doha. The same route will have to be taken on return if the UAE denies permission," said the operations head of an Indian airline.

The other big worry for Indian carriers is that Bahrain is the alternate airport for their aircraft headed to Doha. Now if an Indian aircraft has to divert for any reason, it will not be able to fly direct to Qatar from Bahrain. "We are making plans to fly to some nearby place in Iran and then approach Doha from there. Flying a diverted aircraft all the way back to India is not a viable option," said an Indian flight route planner.

India should tell UAE to stuff it.
And fly the planes with fighter escort.

Bhurishravas · Post by **Bhurishravas** » 06 Jun 2017 23:27

^^ Too hot.
India needs to stay out of this. It's internal kabila matter.
Wait.
In fact, if UAE and Saudi are willing to pick up the tab, then India should support them. Qatar anyway has been supporting jihadis, Muslim brotherhood types. If pakis don't support Saudi, UAE , even better.

Gyan · Post by **Gyan** » 06 Jun 2017 23:34

Qatar is a US bitch, While Saudi think that they are US mistress. So fight between the two for getting the spoils from serving the master. Obama for all his Saudi love, lifted Iran Sanctions and allowed the possibility of Shia Cresenct. Now Trump helping divide Sunni Camp. I don't think Qatar will get pushed over. They are tooooooo rich and have US backing. I think Saudis are whining as ISIS is getting its ass kicked. If Qatar funds Sunnis & Iran Shias in Barbaria, then Saudi Royals may be on their last days/years,

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 06 Jun 2017 23:43

We make a crapload of money from the GCC countries, and there are huge numbers of expatriates in each of these countries (as well as in Kuwait & Oman). It's a very very delicate situation.

Our objective should be very clear and simple - get these countries to move to status quo ante (at least in terms of the blockade measures) asap.

But frankly, I'm not optimistic, given the full statement put out by Trump.

Certainly, our visibility is very very low granularity of the actual situation at the leadership levels, and the real fund flows to terror groups, etc. We at BRF simply don't know the actual current reality. But to anyone it should appear rather odd that Qatar is being singled out.

If anything, looks like part of a bigger deal, whereby Qatari sovereignty may be diluted in exchange for a wider shut-off of the money taps. If that is the case, Trump has been played I fear.

And it will mean a hot war, if status quo ante is not restored in terms of the blockade measures with some compromises, cosmetic or otherwise, from the parties involved. The war does not have to be in the GCC area as such.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 06 Jun 2017 23:52

sooraj wrote:If oil prices go up India will have to interfere, Indian economy is doing good with low oil price.

OIl prices will remain low , Saudi, Gulfie, Goldman Sachs etc will make sure of this.

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 06 Jun 2017 23:54

JEM, major disruptions in energy supplies for any significant length of time are going to slow things down economically for both India and PRC. I think that may at least partially explain the US interest in throwing the Qataris under the bus and winking/nodding as Saudi/UAE start a war in the region. A core strategy of the Trump administration has been to undermine and set back those it sees as potential competitors to US "leadership"... including the EU, PRC, and India.

Here's a take by Fred Kaplan in Slate. Definitely an outlet with its own biases (anti-Trump) but may offer some data points regarding the US Deep State point of view (which the Clinton SDOTUS' policies reflected).

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_ ... risis.html

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 06 Jun 2017 23:59

Entirely possible RD.

It looks like they are implementing what Rumsfeld (in an unguarded moment) said to an open mike on the steps of the Capitol after 9/11. They will attack, they will sow discord, they will make them fight each other, etc. etc... It's playing out more or less along those lines.

I wish that video clip could be recovered. It's been thoroughly cleaned out of the net. Couldn't find it anywhere.

Bhurishravas · Post by **Bhurishravas** » 07 Jun 2017 00:03

India should call UAE and Saudi amassadors and ask if it can help. Thereafter put out a statement to the effect -

India opposes religious extremism of any form. India also.opposes the interference of one country into the internal affairs of another country.
Qatar by supporting muslim.brotherhood in Egypt and by supporting radical elements in Syria and Libya has done great disservice to its allies and friends.
We support the measures taken by the seven countries against Qatar and hope that Qatar can be pursuaded to change its policies and bring them in line with modern international rules of cohabitation.

ArjunPandit · Post by **ArjunPandit** » 07 Jun 2017 00:28

^^yes and India also supports Turkish support to ISIS and saudi support for Wahabism/salafism.
This is a green on green terror and we are best staying away from it, and just protecting our citizens and long term interests. Not our land not our fight

kmkraoind · Post by **kmkraoind** » 07 Jun 2017 00:33

Probably Qatar may witness ruling family change. The new ruling family that is more amenable to K/USA and other fellow Arab monarchs. Wondering if that will be achieved through blood less or with some bloody hunagama.

Erasing Qatar from world map and salami slicing will not happen, but a more docile Ruling Family will come. A big Arab nation cant host US fleet and Airbase forever, for that purpose a small Arab nation is required.

Bhurishravas · Post by **Bhurishravas** » 07 Jun 2017 00:43

India s first priority should be to smash Pakistan. Every breach that Pakistan has with any of its friends must be exploited. Where there aren't breaches, they must be created.
Saudi, UAE are paki backers. The first time they got upset was when pakis refused to join Sunni NATO. That led to their improvement of relations with India .
This is the second opportunity, India should support Saudi and UAE and also point out that it is doing so to every Saudi and UAE royal.

SBajwa · Post by **SBajwa** » 07 Jun 2017 01:01

Qatar is one of the few countries where there are Temples and Gurdwaras and they let Indians do what ever they want. Indians are 25% of the Qatar's population.

Bhurishravas · Post by **Bhurishravas** » 07 Jun 2017 01:03

In 1997, Saudi and UAE were the only countries apart from Pakistan which recognised the Taliban govt. By 2014, Taliban was opening its office in Qatar and not Saudi or UAE.
Isis, All Qaeda, and most jihadis have already declared Saudis apostates. It's highly unlikely Saudis are supporting these elements. Saudis have improved relations with much hated Israel, there is no reason why they wouldn't be amenable to better relations with India

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 07 Jun 2017 01:08

SBajwa wrote:Qatar is one of the few countries where there are Temples and Gurdwaras and they let Indians do what ever they want. Indians are 25% of the Qatar's population.

That's about 650,000 desis (compare ~5000 in Yemen, evacuated during Op Raahat in 2015).

How do we bring them safely home?

Bhurishravas · Post by **Bhurishravas** » 07 Jun 2017 01:10

This issue will be resolved peacefully with Qatar bringing its policies in line with Saudi desires.
India can jump the bandwagon of chastising Qatar with no.cost imho.

Falijee · Post by **Falijee** » 07 Jun 2017 01:13

Ummah Brothers Cut Off Food Supply To Qatar

Qatar Tries to Quell Food-Supply Fears After Crowds Throng Shops

Qatar’s government sought to dispel concerns of possible food shortages a day after its biggest suppliers, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, cut diplomatic and trade links with the import-dependent country. Authorities have taken steps to ensure a regular supply of food and other goods, the Ministry of Economy and Commerce said in a video released on Tuesday that showed fully stocked supermarket shelves.“There are abundant products in line with a government plan that is activated under such circumstances,” the video’s unidentified narrator said. “The import of all food and consumer goods from different sources and countries continues normally.” Muslims and Arabs known for "emotional outbursts" have acted as predicted. In a few months one of the Arab countries will "volunteer" as a mediator and everything will be back to normal.

Qatar, an arid country about the size of the U.S. state of Connecticut, relies heavily on imports to feed its 2.7 million people, most of them expatriates.

“An abundant strategic reserve of food and consumer goods is available,” the ministry video’s narrator said. “Prices are stable and will not be affected, especially that the prices of most consumer and food products have been fixed and any changes will require the ministry’s approval.”

The U.A.E. and Saudi Arabia, together with Bahrain and Egypt, accuse Qatar of supporting extremist groups.

The U.A.E. and Saudi Arabia are also Qatar’s two biggest food suppliers, according to the World Bank.

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 07 Jun 2017 01:25

kmkraoind wrote:Probably Qatar may witness ruling family change. The new ruling family that is more amenable to K/USA and other fellow Arab monarchs. Wondering if that will be achieved through blood less or with some bloody hunagama.

Interesting thought kmkraoind ji.

However, if the objective was only regime change... this is relatively easy to accomplish through much lower-profile means in a constitutional monarchy.

All they had to do was find some young Thani scion of the right stripe... Harvard/Georgetown grad, golf-playing, rolls-royce driving, totally Western-indoctrinated. You can be sure there must be members of the royal family fitting that description. Bribe the right people in Qatar's security forces, use some Culinary Institute skullduggery to replace the Amir with your chosen Thani scion, flex just a little hint of muscle in the CENTCOM base if any "loyalists" decide to contest the issue, and that's that.

What has happened instead is that a very public case is being built up for multilateral diplomatic isolation and economic blockade. So it appears that a bloody hungama in the form of war is being signaled, and the intent goes beyond merely changing the ruler to fundamentally altering the political landscape in the region. At least that is what the noise and fury seems to convey. Let's see.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 07 Jun 2017 01:28

SBajwa wrote:Qatar is one of the few countries where there are Temples and Gurdwaras and they let Indians do what ever they want. Indians are 25% of the Qatar's population.

Hence my recommendation.

RD> KSA needs a victory as its beaten by the Houthis in Yemen. so beat up Qatar.

Agree for Indian POV Qatar is small and equally bad. But on a scale of 1-10 on Indian interests, its close to 7 than UAE, Bahrain or KSA.

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 07 Jun 2017 02:15

Rudradev wrote: ...

However, if the objective was only regime change... this is relatively easy to accomplish through much lower-profile means in a constitutional monarchy.

All they had to do was find some young Thani scion of the right stripe... Harvard/Georgetown grad, golf-playing, rolls-royce driving, totally Western-indoctrinated. You can be sure there must be members of the royal family fitting that description. Bribe the right people in Qatar's security forces, use some Culinary Institute skullduggery to replace the Amir with your chosen Thani scion, flex just a little hint of muscle in the CENTCOM base if any "loyalists" decide to contest the issue, and that's that.

What has happened instead is that a very public case is being built up for multilateral diplomatic isolation and economic blockade. So it appears that a bloody hungama in the form of war is being signaled, and the intent goes beyond merely changing the ruler to fundamentally altering the political landscape in the region. At least that is what the noise and fury seems to convey. Let's see.

Looks like everyone is agreed that this is a bin Salman show.

So, how successful has this guy been at anything he tried so far? From what I can see, Yemen is a quagmire, no idea how well the drive for business diversification and saudi-ization of labor force is going (do they even have the culture and talent pool to achieve this?).

If they start a war against Qatar, wouldn't that be an invitation for Iran to get involved? Does this hotshot want a war with Iran? He is just a rich princeling with great man syndrome. Rahul Gandhi with high testosterone.

This is all a great arap sword dance, but I am guessing it will fizzle out or get locked in a prolonged low intensity stalemate.

India's best bet is to do nothing, just make friendly, concerned noises all around. And work on a plan to break the previous civilian evacuation record, hopefully weaponize the logistics skills gained thereby.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 07 Jun 2017 02:32

so the lines are drawn...if series of trump tweets are connected then axis is ..
US > KSA> Israel > UAE > minions vs Russia > Iran > Doha > ...??

Jordan downgrades diplomatic relations with Qata

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 07 Jun 2017 02:49

IndraD wrote:so the lines are drawn...if series of trump tweets are connected then axis is ..
US > KSA> Israel > UAE > minions vs Russia > Iran > Doha > ...??

Jordan downgrades diplomatic relations with Qata

1) Add Egypt to the US/KSA/UAE side.
2) I am not sure about Russia. They went all-in to preserve their geopolitical interests in Syria but they may well be happy to stay out of KSA/Qatar fight (it doesn't serve them in any obvious way to get involved). Iran may have some interest in saving Qatar, but Russian collaboration with Iran may not extend so far as to actively join Iran's side in this conflict.
3) Turkey wants to uplift its status as the Great Peacemaker/Adjudicator/Leader of Muslim World by brokering a settlement.
4) Kuwait, likewise, is remaining neutral for the time being. But may not be able to resist pressure of the majority of GCC countries (and USA) for long.
5) Houthis would have been a good ally for Qatar to have, distracting KSA on its southern front, but Qatar was actively involved in prosecuting the KSA-led war against them. That may not matter if Iran openly backs Qatar and is able to bring the Houthis in on its side.
6) Finally some of the AQ and IS allied militias also operating in Central and Eastern Yemen may also be beholden to the Qataris.

Y I Patel · Post by **Y I Patel** » 07 Jun 2017 06:49

CNN is now reporting that all of this arose out of fake news implanted by Russian hackers. No idea about the veracity of that story being put out by US, but it does indicate that others in US who have a better grip on reality than Trump are trying to cool things down.

Also remember that Qatar is no land-locked country. If it has arrangements to source trans-shipped food imports from neighbors, that is intended to maximize capacity at its own ports for oil and gas exports. It is not as if a total blockade can be imposed without going to war which would be ruinous to GCC, and Saudi, UAE and others might have gotten into all of this in a fit of tactical brilliance. At best, Qatar might figure that discretion is the better part of valor and give the others some face saving concessions with the understanding that everything will be back to normal order of business soon. At worst, it might decide to tough it out through short term turmoil. Qatar is just too rich and has too many chips for it to be seriously hurt. IMVHO, of course. But again, IMVHO, this is something that will boil over short term but will have definite long term effects. Qatar will never trust GCC alliance again.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 07 Jun 2017 07:12

YIP, I think this is a fallout of the defeat of ISIS formed by KSA, Turkey, and Qatar.
Qatar is reaching out to Iran is the causis belli.
Further accusation is Qatar overpaid $1B to Houthis as ransom money for kidnapping. I don't know the date of this.

This marks three defeats to KSA: defeat of ISIS, in Yemen by Houthis, and defection of Qatar.

So they are trying to prevent the last one of defection of Qatar.

Y I Patel · Post by **Y I Patel** » 07 Jun 2017 07:50

ramana

My point is limited to what is going to happen - Saudi et al will soon discover how little influence they have on Qatar, just as they discovered in Yemen how ineffectual their military forces are.

They are just a bunch of incompetents elevated by their control over the black gold. The good times of oil monopoly shielded all of this, but long term the balance of power in the Middle East will tilt towards countries with larger natural gas reserves since it is the fossil fuel of the future. Thankfully, it is also much better dispersed throughout the world so the pie is shrinking even on that account. So IMHO all of this is about the change of power in the Persian Gulf, and the defeats you refer to will keep coming until the Saudis and their cronies wake up to grim reality.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 07 Jun 2017 08:33

ramana wrote:YIP, I think this is a fallout of the defeat of ISIS formed by KSA, Turkey, and Qatar.
Qatar is reaching out to Iran is the causis belli.
Further accusation is Qatar overpaid $1B to Houthis as ransom money for kidnapping. I don't know the date of this.

This marks three defeats to KSA: defeat of ISIS, in Yemen by Houthis, and defection of Qatar.

So they are trying to prevent the last one of defection of Qatar.

Ransom was paid to Hizbulla in 2015 .

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 07 Jun 2017 08:45

Qatar has the 3rd largest gas reserve in the world. A country with 2.6 mil population.

Avarachan · Post by **Avarachan** » 07 Jun 2017 09:16

I don't know how accurate this is--I am skeptical of the claim regarding Qatar's economic collapse--but other aspects are interesting.

https://syrianperspective.com/2017/06/w ... -east.html

You see, folks, once the natural gas pipeline is completed from Iran, across Iraq, to Syria’s coast, Qatari gas will be so expensive that the country will float on its cash reserves for a couple of years and then, implode. No more Qatar.

Hmmmm. The Iranians thought. What if we let the Qataris in on the deal? What if we share the natural gas pipeline? What if we can drive a wedge between Qatar and the rest of the Arabian trash on the Gulf? Wouldn’t that be British of us?

And so, it has happened. Iran has agreed to give Qatar a share of its rights in the pipeline to Syria and Damascus has agreed as long as Qatar discontinues its support for Al-Qaeda, ISIS and all the other rat groups like Faylaq Al-Rahmaan. Soon, Qatar’s useless military officers will be withdrawn from MOK in Jordan. And, better yet, Qatar is now absolved from any further obligation to the so-called “Saudi coalition” in the very unpopular war in Yemen. The Saudis are enraged.

Baikul · Post by **Baikul** » 07 Jun 2017 11:09

I wonder if Raheel Sharif's reported departure from the Islamic Military League was a fallout of his or the Pakistani government's early realization that the $hit was about to hit the fan, and subsequent downhill skiing.

sum · Post by **sum** » 07 Jun 2017 11:14

^^ Would believe its the case since all said and done, the TSP-ians do have lots of high level contacts with most Gulf biggies

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 07 Jun 2017 11:15

Tsp elites have a finely honed spider sense and superb intel in gulf. They will sit this one out and lavishly praise the winner.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 07 Jun 2017 12:01

Saudi invasion imminent! Kuwait trying to defuse the situ.Will the Qataris succumb to Saudi blackmail? Wioll the Iranians step in if the Saudis invade?

http://macedoniaonline.eu/content/view/32139/53/

Saudis issue 24hr Ultimatum for Qatar to comply to 10 demands, or else...
Tuesday, 06 June 2017
Shortly after imposing a naval blockade in the immediate aftermath of the Qatar diplomatic crisis, one which left the small Gulf nation not only politically isolated and with severed ties to its neighbors but potentially locked out of maritime trade and crippling its oil and LNG exports, on Tuesday SkyNews Arabia reported that Saudi Arabia has given Qatar a 24 hours ultimatum, starting tonight, to fulfill 10 conditions that have been conveyed to Kuwait, which is currently involved in the role of a mediator between Saudi and Qatar.

According to media report, among the key demands by Saudi Arabia is that Qatar end all ties Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas.

While there was little additional information on the Ultimatum and more importantly what happens should Qatar not comply, Al Jazeera reported that Kuwait's emir, Sheikh Sabah Al Ahmad Al Jaber Al Sabah, left Saudi Arabia on Tuesday after holding mediation talks with the Saudi King Salman bin Abdul Aziz to try to defuse an escalating crisis between Arab countries and Qatar. No details were given on the talks.

In addition to Saudi Arabia's aggressive approach, Egypt's Foreign Ministry accused Qatar of taking an "antagonist approach" towards Cairo and said "all attempts to stop it from supporting terrorist groups failed". Qatar denied the allegations, with a Foreign Ministry statement describing them as "baseless" on Monday.

Speaking to Al Jazeera, analyst Giorgio Cafiero of Gulf State Analytics, a geopolitical risk consultancy based in Washington, DC, said: "I think the Kuwaitis as well as Omanis ... fear the prospects of these tensions escalating in ways which could undermine the interest of all six members of the GCC.

"There are many analysts who believe that a potential break-up of the GCC has to be considered right now."

"If these countries fail to resolve their issues and such tensions reaches new heights, we have to be very open to the possibility of these six Arab countries no longer being able to unite under the banner of one council," said Cafiero.

He added that if tension escalates, some have warned of a "military confrontation".

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 07 Jun 2017 12:08

Qatar has a total of 12 mirage2000 . Even uae alone can roll that up for breakfast

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 07 Jun 2017 12:10

Uae has 75 f16 and 30 m2k.

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 07 Jun 2017 12:12

And those UAE F-16's are the AESA equipped Block 60 variant, reportedly today the amount advanced F-16 variant