West Asia News and Discussions (YEMEN, gulf)

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IndraD
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by IndraD »

^^ US
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by pankajs »

http://www.foxnews.com/world/2014/10/13 ... ys-report/

Gruesome photos may show ISIS using chemical weapons on Kurds, report says
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Shreeman »

Oil prices are dropping. How low can they go? 70 is a distinct possibility, warm winter and we might see 60.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Singha »

a guy named sheytanelkebir has some interesting points in milphotos gen discussions forum wrt next moves on the chess board.

--
"average" (meaning 90%) of Iraqi units have humvees or M113 with a 12.7mm.

The humvee is slower and less reliable than the toyota 4x4s that ISIS use.

ISIS also mount either a 14.5mm or sometimes a 23mm on theirs outgunning and outmanouvering the Iraqi HUMVEES / M113s.

ISIS have anti-tank missiles issued to their units. No IA unit has Anti Tank missiles.

ISIS have FN-6 SAMs in use operationally. Iraq has only 8 avenger fire units "operational".

In terms of "rifles" they are about the same.

ISIS have "ground observers" (most of the sunni populace) acting as their "early warning system" giving them very good situational awareness... The Iraqis have only 5x KingAir 350I ISR planes which only give patchy coverage of a very large battlefront.

ISIS rely on the local populace for their food / water / shelter meaning they can manouver rapidly from front to front compared to the IA who have to take everything they eat and drink with them.

As soon as any civilian sees IA formation or an aircraft / helicopter you can be sure that ISIS know where they are and in which direction they're going. In most instances ISIS are inside civilian homes wearing civilian clothes with their vehicles in garages... they choose the "battlefield".

The Iraqi Government's "moratorium" on the bombing of any "civilian" areas by aircraft or artillery effectively gives ISIS a safe haven to operate from, only venturing "out" into the desert and fields when their ground observers show "favourable" conditions in terms of enemy aircraft and ground force formations.
---
ISIS is not "tightening the noose" on Baghdad.

There are tens if not hundreds of thousands of ISIS and ISIS sympathisers INSIDE Baghdad today. I will confidently state that there are more ISIS and ISIS supporters INSIDE Baghdad Today (14th October 2014) than there are inside Fallujah today. I am 100% confident of this FACT.

The fact that these ISIS are mostly "dormant" at this point in time is the key point.

Many of them would be in the Baghdad Police Force and in the Infantry Divisions inside Baghdad.

Many would be in the entourage of the Members of Parliament (all the security of the Sunni Parliamentarians can be safely considered ISIS operatives).

So there are hundreds, if not thousands, of ARMED ISIS members INSIDE the "Green Zone" in Baghdad.
---
I would say the "sleeper clean up" happening now has not even truly scratched the surface IMHO.

Thing will "get real" once ISIS announce their "D-Day".... and I think they won't be "driving in from Fallujah on Toyota 4x4s"... I rather think it would be the "security entourage" of the Sunni Arab Parliamentarians starting a war inside the Green Zone that rapidly engulfs all of Baghdad into all out Sectarian War.
---
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Singha »

Libya, the new hub for Jihadism

Article published by @MaliWitness

Libya has experienced drastic changes all over its territory; all across Libya we are witnessing different groups with different agendas and ideologies.
But the most interesting movements to look at are those groups and movements who seek to establish Islamism across Libya and the whole of region. Over the past weeks, months and even years we have seen how Jihadi groups have established their strongholds in especially the Eastern region – observing these changes is very important in order to understand what might happen in the upcoming months and years.

Dernah, the Libyan Raqqah

The city of Dernah has become the Libyan Raqqah in my sight – with ISIS militants controlling the city and implementing the usual social strategies of the ‘Islamic State’. In the end of September the Jihadi group “Majlis Shura Shabab Al-Islam fi Dernah” (Council of Islamic Youth in Dernah) gave its pledge of allegiance to the ‘Islamic State’, establishing a stronghold of Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi, leader of the ‘Islamic State’. The leader of the Jihadi group “Majlis Shura Shabab Al-Islam fi Dernah” gave his pledge of allegiance on behalf of the group, swearing that he will be loyal to Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi through times of hardship and times of ease. After this oath of allegiance given by the Emir[1] the Jihadi group’s fighters marched on the streets of Dernah screaming the usual chants of the ‘Islamic State’, “Baaqiyah”; “The Islamic State will remain”.

With this militant group having previous conflicts with one of the other Islamist militant groups named “Abu Salim Martyrs Brigade”, it was only logical to ask how other groups felt of this announcement – and it seems that this announcement have split the Abu Salim Martyrs Brigade with some members being in favor of the announcement and others being against it, while other groups like Ansar Al-Sharia, who are not that influential in Dernah have been neutral. So overall it seems that no other group has recognized this announcement of a Caliphate inside Libya, but knowing the ‘Islamic State’, it most likely won’t change their vision.


More after the link: http://maliwitness.wordpress.com/author/maliwitness/
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by pankajs »

Josef Salih ‏@JosefSalih 3h3 hours ago

@Hevallo Turkey bombs PKK, which is the only real the force on the ground to fight the ISIS terrorists
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by member_20292 »

Singha wrote:a guy named sheytanelkebir has some interesting points in milphotos gen discussions forum wrt next moves on the chess board.

--
"average" (meaning 90%) of Iraqi units have humvees or M113 with a 12.7mm.

The humvee is slower and less reliable than the toyota 4x4s that ISIS use.

ISIS also mount either a 14.5mm or sometimes a 23mm on theirs outgunning and outmanouvering the Iraqi HUMVEES / M113s.

ISIS have anti-tank missiles issued to their units. No IA unit has Anti Tank missiles.

ISIS have FN-6 SAMs in use operationally. Iraq has only 8 avenger fire units "operational".

In terms of "rifles" they are about the same.

ISIS have "ground observers" (most of the sunni populace) acting as their "early warning system" giving them very good situational awareness... The Iraqis have only 5x KingAir 350I ISR planes which only give patchy coverage of a very large battlefront.

ISIS rely on the local populace for their food / water / shelter meaning they can manouver rapidly from front to front compared to the IA who have to take everything they eat and drink with them.

As soon as any civilian sees IA formation or an aircraft / helicopter you can be sure that ISIS know where they are and in which direction they're going. In most instances ISIS are inside civilian homes wearing civilian clothes with their vehicles in garages... they choose the "battlefield".

The Iraqi Government's "moratorium" on the bombing of any "civilian" areas by aircraft or artillery effectively gives ISIS a safe haven to operate from, only venturing "out" into the desert and fields when their ground observers show "favourable" conditions in terms of enemy aircraft and ground force formations.
---
ISIS is not "tightening the noose" on Baghdad.

There are tens if not hundreds of thousands of ISIS and ISIS sympathisers INSIDE Baghdad today. I will confidently state that there are more ISIS and ISIS supporters INSIDE Baghdad Today (14th October 2014) than there are inside Fallujah today. I am 100% confident of this FACT.

The fact that these ISIS are mostly "dormant" at this point in time is the key point.

Many of them would be in the Baghdad Police Force and in the Infantry Divisions inside Baghdad.

Many would be in the entourage of the Members of Parliament (all the security of the Sunni Parliamentarians can be safely considered ISIS operatives).

So there are hundreds, if not thousands, of ARMED ISIS members INSIDE the "Green Zone" in Baghdad.
---
I would say the "sleeper clean up" happening now has not even truly scratched the surface IMHO.

Thing will "get real" once ISIS announce their "D-Day".... and I think they won't be "driving in from Fallujah on Toyota 4x4s"... I rather think it would be the "security entourage" of the Sunni Arab Parliamentarians starting a war inside the Green Zone that rapidly engulfs all of Baghdad into all out Sectarian War.
---
Kashmir used to be ~somewhat similar~ in the sense that there are so many sympathizers in the populace, who used to cross over to Pak , train and come back and fight the Indian army in Kashmir.

What sorted this situation out?

1. Massive funds for Indian army and massive, permanent deployment of the IA in Kashmir.
2. Solid suppression of local as well as foreign supporters of terrorism by the IA. Increased border guarding, preventing terrorists from crossing over, amongst other measures
3. America in Afghanistan for 10 years, putting pressure on the Pakis to clean up their act.
4. this pressure resulted in solid blowback to Pak - rapidly increasing the amount of terror attacks inside their territory.

But the above is The long and expensive way forward. You do this when you are a gentle and effete democracy with a lot of tolerance for punishment.

The short sighted and cheap way is to screw the happiness of people , big time. Tolerance will not get you anywhere.

Suppress the populace like China in Tibet and Xinjiang, genocide them like Saddam/Assad/Gaddafi/other dictators. In the past, in India, you have had major league blood-letting in the case of the Mughals, the Ghaznis, Chandashoka, and others.

Iran is another model, of theocratizing and suppressing people to keep the peace.

There is no cheap and easy way to keep the peace in the "Muddle-East". The fight will go on for many more years. Giving any one side arms and training is probably NOT the way forward, though I may be wrong. Supporting one side or the other is also NOT the way forward.

The ISIS, as Singhaji has correctly pointed out, used to be the Baathists earlier. They are embedded in the day to day, humdrum, normal society in Baghdad and elsewhere in Iraq - unless they genocide each other for a long time, the Shia-Sunni equilibrium will NOT be established in Iraq.

Supporting FSA, like Saudi did, led to this blowback of the ISIS. Lesson from this may be - don't meddle , even if a Shia dictator in Assad is suppressing Sunnis or a Sunni dictator like Saddam, is suppressing Shias. But this lesson is lost on the Saudis and the Iranians, who will do ungli to each other, through their proxies, in this manner.

Rightly so, America wants to have nothing to do with these idiots. One no better nor no worse than the other.

One thing is, that all their bad karma is not hitting the Saudis where it hurts. This is due soon, and I will expect all their karma , through some, yet unseen mechanism, to bite their 'botis' soon. *watch for this event , gentle rakshaks*

Net net, get your popcorn, since this show will go on for a loooooong time. It has been going on for the past 2000 years already, and still "picture abhi baaki hai!"
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Singha »

There are daily suicide bonbings of Shia by Isis in Baghdad these days.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by IndraD »

Image

Image

Image

Image

women Kurd fighting barbarians on own
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by govardhanks »

Many fluctuating heads and leaders in middle east will get clear mindset as time passes, may be ISIS should be left like this for good! for time being, and then taken into account when it is inevitable..let them reach maturity and do some chest thumping, victory songs, and what not. US and EU people are doing the right thing by giving it time!!
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by UlanBatori »

The humvee is slower and less reliable than the toyota 4x4s that ISIS use.
Exactly. Toyota RAV-4 stands for Real Armored Vehicle-4 wheel drive. 8)

It is dismal that with all the military might of the UN, civilians have to take up arms to have any hope of at least fighting to the death against these monsters.

I think India should ask all Indians to get out of KSA and the gelf and Turkey, because this is leading to nuclear holocaust. Only way to clean up the whole region and make it really Pure.

See Afghanistan on a Google Earth map: you will see that the whole region is a mega-crater. I think the Ancients had them figured right and tried to clean up the region. Same needs repeating.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by IndraD »

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 94641.html

Curds reclaim key mountain, tear black flag down, is this the reason why Toorki jet were out today targeting Curds?

Image
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by vishvak »

The lady fighters have been consistent from moment ISIL attacked Yezidis. The Arab neighbors (who let barbarians straight to yezidis), the guards who ran, the pro-shia and pro-Kurd fighters (who help in parts, run arbitrary campaigns and at times fight against each other), the Turks (who directly aid ISIL even from within Turkey) are all fighting irregular warfare. When ISIL attacked sinjar mountain first, the lady fighters were the only one holding ground and not running away while a few militias stole weapons from helpless villagers too.

One good reason to nuke ISIL is the way they treat Yezidis - calling them devil worshippers & therefore not eligible for jiziya; but eligible only for slavery and mass murder. The ISIL barbarians and their coward masters need to be dragged all the way to extinction.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Austin »

Iran Rejects Saudi Arabia Suggestion on Withdrawal of Troops From Syria: Reports
MOSCOW, October 14 (RIA Novosti) - Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian has rejected Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister Saud Faisal's suggestion that Iran should withdraw its troops from Syria to facilitate the settlement of the conflict in the country, the Elaph newspaper reported Tuesday.

"The Islamic Republic of Iran is an important country of the region that is fighting terrorism. The Iranian government will help the nations of Iraq and Syria in accordance with international laws," Abdollahian was quoted as saying by the newspaper.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Singha »

if you want to fight a light mobile war with almost no logistical tail, the toyotas and mercedes trucks are indeed less problem than dedicated mil grade kit. mostly their payload and protection is less but the payload is only a few RPG, 1 HMG and raving mad jihadis only...and neither the kurds have any form of artillery or similar cavalry to target them effectively.

the americans themselves have only the CBU-105 SFW weapon to attack many moving targets at the same time. if a regular 1000lb JDAM is dropped on a convoy, it will take out anything in a radius but the rest will scatter in all directions and escape. the british have brimstone salvo fired from tornado GR4 in this nice application.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by IndraD »

What machine gun is that on the top pic SIngha ji, a heavy one?
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Singha »

almost all african and middle east militias use some variant of the old soviet Degtyarev 12.7mm HMG and so is this one I think.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Aditya_V »

Coming to think of it those type of anti material HMG's along with Vidwanshak and Denel anti material rifles will be pretty useful in nos along the LOC, IB etc, We can also hit some Jihadis by shooting these through walls(with infra red/thermal scopes) rather than getting in close with AK-47's.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Austin »

So will Washington play ball with Turkey and create NFZ over Syria and attack Syria in return for Turkey committing ground troops.

I suspect the Sunni country fight against ISIS is half hearted , on one hand they are financing and arming them and they also dont want to annoy washington.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Klaus »

IndraD wrote:What machine gun is that on the top pic SIngha ji, a heavy one?
DShKM 1938 model.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Singha »

Aditya we already have around 900 Denel AMR 0.50 cal so no doubt these are being used.
we also use the Browning M2 HMG which is the most widely used one among conventional armies of the world.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... n_M2_1.jpg
but neither of these are effective on concrete bunkers though they will readily chew up brick or mud houses.

for concrete bunkers we have dismantled and brought forward the bofors L70 30mm AA cannons.
some pix from border here
http://defenceforumindia.com/forum/indi ... ost-9.html
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Philip »

It is an undisputed fact that the Gulf monarchies and the Saudis supported ISIS.Who supports them staying in power for their oil wealth? The West! It appears that like OBL and al Q,blowback has repeated itself.The West has learnt nothing from its past mistakes in trying to control the Arab/Muslim world ,tribal in nature,through the lens of western cultural and "democratic" conventions.
If the foll. report is true,it isn't too late to defeat ISIS.US-Russian cooperation in intl. crises will to a great extent defuse such events.The two superpowers must cooperate more to make the region less combustive.

http://rt.com/news/196052-russia-us-security-renewed/
Divided over Ukraine, but US & Russia band together to fight ISIS
Published time: October 15,

Home /
News /

Divided over Ukraine, but US & Russia band together to fight ISIS
Published time: October 15, 2014

Washington and Moscow are renewing security cooperation, which ground to a halt amid the rift caused by the Ukrainian crisis. The two are back in business together to share intelligence on the Islamic State (IS, formerly ISIS) militant group.

The mending move came after a three-hour meeting in Paris between Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and US Secretary of State John Kerry. The talks were focused on issues other than Ukraine and appear to mark a pivot in US-Russia relations, which lately have stood at a post-Cold War low.

The renewed cooperation, and particularly sharing of intelligence on the IS is part of US and Russia assuming “major responsibilities” as world powers, Kerry said. Tackling North Korea and finding a solution to Iran's controversial nuclear problem are other examples where the two nations need a partnership, he added.

Lavrov, speaking separately from Kerry, confirmed the development.

"We can cooperate better together to increase the effectiveness of settling problems for larger society. That especially concerns the fight against terrorism, which has now become the main threat to the whole Mideast," he explained.

The crisis in Ukraine started with anti-government protests last year, which the US and the EU supported and which led to an armed coup in which right-wing radical groups played a key part.

After the new authorities demonstrated intention to repeal a law giving official regional status to Russian language, the predominantly Russian region of Crimea held a referendum, voting to become part of the Russian Federation.

Western nations consider the events an illegal annexation by Moscow, while Washington launched a campaign to isolate Russia internationally. The effort saw limited success with major players like China or India refusing to join in, but it included the severing of most avenues for cooperation between the US and Russia, including on security.

The rise of the IS in Syria and its lightning offensive in Iraq, which left the country's US-trained army demoralized and fleeing, required a major international response. Washington leads a coalition of nations that use airstrikes to hamper the IS advances.

The operations in Syria are being done without either a UN Security Council mandate or an invitation from the Syrian government, which the US wants ousted. Critics argue that it makes the bombings an illegal military invasion in terms of international law.

Syria's top regional ally Iran, which is helping Iraqi government to fight against the IS, does not take part in the US-led campaign in Syria. Russia, which supports Iraq with arms supplies, is also skeptical about the involvement in Syria.

The renewed cooperation between the US and Russia hardly cancels all the divisions the two countries have, including those over Ukraine. Violence continues in the country despite a ceasefire negotiated last month. Ukraine's economy continues sliding down and the country's debt for supplies of Russian gas is yet to be settled
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by pankajs »

dna ‏@dna 1h1 hour ago

Wounded Kurdish soldiers fighting Islamic State die after being refused entry at Turkey border http://dnai.in/cpkU
He said he spent the next four hours watching them die, one by one, from what he thinks were treatable shrapnel wounds as Turkish border guards refused to let them through the frontier. "To me it is clear they died because they waited so long. If they had received help, even up to one hour before their deaths, they could have lived," said Omar, 34, an ethnic Kurd originally from Iraq who holds Swedish nationality.

"Once the soldiers realised they were dead, they said, 'Now you can cross with the bodies.' I cannot forget that. It was total chaos, it was a catastrophe," he said, choking back tears.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Aditya_V »

No doubt then from reports that NATO alliance member is helping ISIS along with GCC countries, i.e NATO and it allies are responsible for arming and supporting the crimes done by ISIS.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by UlanBatori »

Where is our resident expert on US foreign & domestic policy and military? Polls are showing American public opinion demanding ground offensives against the ISIS. Maybe draft will have to be reinstated? Or is BO going to wait until the ISIS is driving their Toyotas up Pennsylvania Avenue with slave American women as hood ornaments?
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by pankajs »

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/worl ... 827239.cms

Saudi sentences iconic Shia cleric to death
DUBAI: A well-known Shia cleric was sentenced to death Wednesday by a court in Saudi Arabia, sparking fears of renewed unrest from his supporters in the kingdom and neighboring Bahrain.

Sheik Nimr al-Nimr's case has been watched closely by minority Saudi Shiites in the eastern region of the majority Sunni kingdom. The 54-year-old cleric's case was seen as a barometer for Saudi Arabia's handling of Shia grievances over the past years.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Anand K »

Wahhabism vs. Wahhabism: Qatar Challenges Saudi Arabia

Dunno if this was posted here before.... makes interesting reading considering the ISIS.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by UlanBatori »

And as for US, we can all rest assured. The Secret Operation Code Name has been revealed:
IN HER *** DISSOLVE
No wonder they wanted to keep it secret. :roll: The Joint Chief of Staffs, BTW, seems to be really on 'joints'. Nearly as clueful as his boss.
The U.S. has a "winning strategy" to defeat ISIS, the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff told CNN exclusively Wednesday
:rotfl:
Is it possible that ISIS could gain control of Baghdad? "I don't see that happening," he said. "I'm confident we can assist the Iraqis to keep Baghdad from falling."
he "can't foresee" sending "large ground combat forces into Iraq."
(Common factor: He has his eyes closed)
yet he also told CNN that "war is discovery" .
airstrikes alone will not beat ISIS though they have forced the group to change "the way it's moving." (Now they move much faster by rolling on the floor laughing)
Code name means (and this is an exact quote):
"we need to be able to be credible and sustainable over time in order to accomplish the mission that we've been given."
THIS REALLY gives me confidence that this is the right leader of the Armed Forces of the US of A.
Isn't this what Patton said when he landed in North Africa? Europe? In his pakistan?
ISIS is a "national security threat"
Ebola is a global threat for at least 90 days. "I'm worried about it because we know so little about (Ebola)," (but we know more than we know about ISIS)
Pathetic.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Singha »

the inevitable is just being postponed. Iraq will go through a N-S civil war with ISIS-qatar-saudis-turkey on one side, and iran and southern shias on the other, with the battlefront starting at baghdad and moving N or S as fortunes dictate. no mercy will be shown to prisoners or non-combatants, wholesale massacres will be order of the day when a town falls as it was in middle ages in arabia and europe (in contrast this was usually avoided by indic rulers per the code of war to spare civilians and wounded..as clashes in india were between personalities (kings) not religions or along ethnic lines usually ).

the kurds might just be roadkill unless iran uses its adjacent border to move heavily on their side. its clear turkey wants them gone, one way or another.

likewise the ISIS clamp on north iraq and syria means the overland route from Iran -> hezbollah and iran -> damascus is closed. only limited help can be sent by sea. Assad is hence now sorely dependent on Putin's help. Hezbollah will probably lie low and depend on getting things via Assad.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by govardhanks »

Is it like?
Iraq gone--- 50 years of peace
Shia gone--- 50 years of peace
ISIS gone--- again 50 years of peace
Sunni gone---again 50 years of peace
Baki gone (along with some islands in Ind)--- again 50 years of peace
End of inevitable era
China gone -- again 50 years of peace
Whoever next would stand will also be gone---

"Peace is earned by war, now decide how much peace you want"

sorry for being naive and childish, but this is what it looks to me.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by IndraD »

IS retreating from Kobane due to US air strikes (really) ?

Image


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle- ... um=twitter
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Singha »

one US Gen was claiming due to bad weather over Iraq, he could free up more a/c for kobane and delivered some 50 in the last 24 hrs.
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Prem »

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/frontline-isis ... nt-1470119
She is a 40-year-old fighter who has been fighting for 20 years in the ranks of HPG/PKK [Kurdistan Workers' Party.] Before going to Kobani, she was fighting in Cezire, in the region of Qamishli, and she has been deployed in Kobani for a year and a half now."Ever since Isis started its attacks, the checkpoints of the YPJ [Women's Protection Unit] in Kobani have not withdrawn and have stayed in their positions. They have resisted many fierce attacks by Isis and shown competent armed force... many army brigades in both Syria and Iraq couldn't stand such attacks."Kenan Fani Dogan, a Kurdish political refugee, activist and blogger based in Stockholm, said that "the Kurdish society has always perceived female fighters as a symbol of bravery and valor."There is a common Kurdish saying about that: "Şêr şêre çi jine, çi mêre'', which means 'a lion is a lion – be it a female or male.' This mentality has developed even more today with Kurds who lean to and support the women's liberation and their right to have leading roles in all aspects of life.
UlanBatori
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by UlanBatori »

US is claiming "several hundred" ISIS Pest-e-sha'eed. Since I have read news reports from the Vietnam War making similar claims every day for "body count" I have to be a bit suspicious. Do they really know who is ISIS and who their victims?
Singha
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Singha »

there is nobody on the ground to be making accurate BDA assessments. so these are just claims thats all. ground situation is ISIS occupies half the town and shows no sign of leaving. they are feeding in more fighters to replace those killed or wounded.

I am not sure why the US cannot position a troop of Reapers on the open roads leading into Kobani and pop hellfires on any vehicles esp at night. nobody else but ISIS is likely to be heading into Kobani from Syrian side as they control the adjacent area.

israel has been able to support street battles using apache and cobra helicopters, hence Repears at hellfires and their excellent EO kits should be able to target ISIS units street by street if kurds can be tasked to lay some smoke markers on target areas to id the battle line.
IndraD
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by IndraD »

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... obane.html

no way to ascertain truth, Curds claim to have pushed IS except for 2 pockets
Philip
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Philip »

The Saudi oil war against Russia, Iran and the US
http://rt.com/op-edge/196148-saudiarabi ... rontation/
Saudi Arabia has unleashed an economic war against selected oil producers. The strategy masks the House of Saud’s real agenda. But will it work?

Rosneft Vice President Mikhail Leontyev; “Prices can be manipulative…Saudi Arabia has begun making big discounts on oil. This is political manipulation, and Saudi Arabia is being manipulated, which could end badly.”

A correction is in order; the Saudis are not being manipulated. What the House of Saud is launching is “Tomahawks of spin,” insisting they’re OK with oil at $90 a barrel; also at $80 for the next two years; and even at $50 to $60 for Asian and North American clients.

The fact is Brent crude had already fallen to below $90 a barrel because China – and Asia as a whole – was already slowing down economically, although to a lesser degree compared to the West. Production, though, remained high – especially by Saudi Arabia and Kuwait - even with very little Libyan and Syrian oil on the market and with Iran forced to cut exports by a million barrels a day because of the US economic war, a.k.a. sanctions.

The House of Saud is applying a highly predatory pricing strategy, which boils down to reducing market share of its competitors, in the middle- to long-term. At least in theory, this could make life miserable for a lot of players – from the US (energy development, fracking and deepwater drilling become unprofitable) to producers of heavy, sour crude such as Iran and Venezuela. Yet the key target, make no mistake, is Russia.

A strategy that simultaneously hurts Iran, Iraq, Venezuela, Ecuador and Russia cannot escape the temptation of being regarded as an “Empire of Chaos” power play, as in Washington cutting a deal with Riyadh. A deal would imply bombing ISIS/ISIL/Daesh leader Caliph Ibrahim is just a prelude to bombing Bashar al-Assad’s forces; in exchange, the Saudis squeeze oil prices to hurt the enemies of the “Empire of Chaos.”

Yet it’s way more complicated than that.
Sticking it to Washington

Russia’s state budget for 2015 requires oil at least at $100 a barrel. Still, the Kremlin is borrowing no more than $7 billion in 2015 from the usual “foreign investors”, plus $27.2 billion internally. Hardly an economic earthquake.

Besides, the ruble has already fallen over 14 percent since July against the US dollar. By the way, the currencies of key BRICS members have also fallen; 7.8 percent for the Brazilian real, 1.6 percent for the Indian rupee. And Russia, unlike the Yeltsin era, is not broke; it holds at least $455 billion in foreign reserves.

The House of Saud’s target of trying to bypass Russia as a top supplier of oil to the EU is nothing but a pipe dream; EU refineries would have to be reframed to process Saudi light crude, and that costs a fortune.

Geopolitically, it gets juicier when we see that central to the House of Saud strategy is to stick it to Washington for not fulfilling its “Assad must go” promise, as well as the neo-con obsession in bombing Iran. It gets worse (for the Saudis) because Washington – at least for now – seems more concentrated in toppling Caliph Ibrahim than Bashar al-Assad, and might be on the verge of signing a nuclear deal with Tehran as part of the P5+1 on November 24.

On the energy front, the ultimate House of Saud nightmare would be both Iran and Iraq soon being able to take over the Saudi status as key swing oil producers in the world. Thus the Saudi drive to deprive both of much-needed oil revenue. It might work – as in the sanctions biting Tehran even harder. Yet Tehran can always compensate by selling more gas to Asia.

So here's the bottom line. A beleaguered House of Saud believes it may force Moscow to abandon its support of Damascus, and Washington to scotch a deal with Tehran. All this by selling oil below the average spot price. That smacks of desperation. Additionally, it may be interpreted as the House of Saud dithering if not sabotaging the coalition of the cowards/clueless in its campaign against Caliph Ibrahim’s goons.

Compounding the gloom, the EU might be allowed to muddle through this winter – even considering possible gas supply problems with Russia because of Ukraine. Still, low Saudi oil prices won’t prevent a near certain fourth recession in six years just around the EU corner.

Reuters / Hamad I Mohammed

Reuters / Hamad I Mohammed
Go East, young Russian

Russia, meanwhile, slowly but surely looks East. China’s Vice Premier Wang Yang has neatly summarized it; “China is willing to export to Russia such competitive products as agricultural goods, oil and gas equipment, and is ready to import Russian engineering products.” Couple that with increased food imports from Latin America, and it doesn’t look like Moscow is on the ropes.

A hefty Chinese delegation led by Premier Li Keqiang has just signed a package of deals in Moscow ranging from energy to finance, and from satellite navigation to high-speed rail cooperation. For China, which overtook Germany as Russia’s top trading partner in 2011, this is pure win-win.

The central banks of China and Russia have just signed a crucial, 3-year, 150 billion yuan bilateral local-currency swap deal. And the deal is expandable. The City of London basically grumbles- but that’s what they usually do.

This new deal, crucially, bypasses the US dollar. No wonder it’s now a key component of the no holds barred proxy economic war between the US and Asia. Moscow cannot but hail it as sidelining many of the side effects of the Saudi strategy.

The Russia-China strategic partnership has been on the up and up since the “epochal” (Putin’s definition) $400 billion, 30-year “gas deal of the century” clinched in May. And the economic reverberations won't stop.

There’s bound to be an alignment of the Chinese-driven New Silk Roads with a revamped Trans-Siberian railway. At the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit last month in Dushanbe, President Putin praised the “great potential” of developing a “common SCO transport system” linking “Russia’s Trans-Siberian railway and the Baikal-Amur mainline” with the Chinese Silk Roads, thus “benefiting all countries in Eurasia.”

Moscow is progressively lifting restrictions and is now offering Beijing a wealth of potential investments. Beijing is progressively accessing not only much-needed Russian raw materials but acquiring cutting-edge technology and advanced weapons.

Beijing will get S-400 missile systems and Su-35 fighter jets as soon as the first quarter of 2015. Further on down the road will come Russia’s brand new submarine, the Amur 1650, as well as components for nuclear-powered satellites.

Reuters / Hamad I Mohammed

Reuters / Hamad I Mohammed
The road is paved with yuan

Presidents Putin and Xi, who have met no less than nine times since Xi came to power last year, are scaring the hell out of the “Empire of Chaos.” No wonder; their number one shared priority is to dent the hegemony of the US dollar – and especially the petrodollar - in the global financial system.

The yuan has been trading on the Moscow Exchange - the first bourse outside of China to offer regulated yuan trading. It’s still at only $1.1 billion (in September). Russian importers pay for 8 percent of all Chinese goods with yuan instead of dollars, but that’s rising fast. And it will rise exponentially when Moscow finally decides to accept yuan under Gazprom’s $400 billion “gas deal of the century.”

This is the way the multipolar world goes. The House of Saud deploys the petrodollar weapon? The counterpunch is increased trade in a basket of currencies. Additionally, Moscow sends a message to the EU, which is losing a lot of Russia trade because of counter-productive sanctions, thus accelerating the EU’s next recession. Economic war does work both ways.

The House of Saud believes it can dump a tsunami of oil in the market and back it up with a tsunami of spin – creating the illusion the Saudis control oil prices. They don’t. As much as this strategy will fail, Beijing is showing the way out; trading in other currencies stabilizes prices. The only losers, in the end, will be those who stick to trade in US dollars.
vishvak
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by vishvak »

We seem to have missed appreciation of $ and rather would focus on depreciation of other currencies. Fact is, a strong $ would fetch better deals wrt $ reserves (say Rafale fighters perhaps) but that part is completely ignored (even by the French)!

If Russians (and also Indians, Chinese, Americans, Europeans) aren't affected by appreciating $ and fall in crude prices, the obvious target remaining is Iran - this when Iran is already under sanctions by the NATO. Have we missed anything else here?
Rajagopal
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Rajagopal »

Damn! Now i can never visit Turkey. A good video clip of the university attacks in Turkey

http://www.voanews.com/media/video/turk ... 86346.html
Prem
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Re: West Asia News and Discussions

Post by Prem »

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ ... olationism
India's Isolationism
Why New Delhi Refuses to Engage the Middle East

Shortly after Narendra Modi became prime minister of India in May 2014, his government faced its first foreign policy crisis. Just weeks after his inauguration, members of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) captured 41 Indian construction workers in Mosul and 46 Indian nurses in Tikrit, producing one of India’s worst-ever hostage crises.The fate of the Middle East, home to roughly seven million Indians, has long been tied to that of India. As Salman Khurshid, then India’s foreign minister, noted in 2013, the Persian Gulf, which supplies two-thirds of India’s oil and gas, is the country’s largest trading partner -- more important than the 28 countries of the European Union combined. Despite its stake in the region, however, India has remained passive in the face of crises. It appears wary of taking on a more assertive diplomatic or military role -- more likely to evacuate citizens than send more in to grapple with the Middle East’s problems.Despite its stake in the region, India has remained passive in the face of crises in the Middle East.

Over the past decade, New Delhi has reacted to turmoil in the Middle East with interest but little else. In 2003, for example, according to the historian Rudra Chaudhuri, New Delhi briefly considered deploying its 6th Infantry Division to northern Iraq -- a contingent that would have been the second largest in the country, behind only that of the United States. New Delhi ultimately dismissed this possibility, however, in the absence of a supportive resolution from the United Nations. Although New Delhi appeared eager to advance the U.S.-Indian relationship by committing troops, it would not do so at the cost of its historical commitment to multilateralism and to what Atal Bihari Vajpayee, India’s prime minister at the time, called an “honest nonaligned policy.” New Delhi remained committed to nonalignment in 2011, when it opposed NATO’s intervention in Libya against Muammar al-Qaddafi’s regime. India abstained from voting on UN Resolution 1973, which authorized the use of force in Libya, calling the situation there an “internal affair,” and hewing closely to the Russian and Chinese position. India’s permanent representative to the United Nations complained that “the pro-interventionist powers did not ever try to bring about a peaceful end to the crisis.”New Delhi has viewed subsequent uprisings in Syria, Bahrain, and elsewhere similarly. Like China and Russia, India voted against UN resolutions in February and July 2012 that called for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to step down. It also abstained from voting on a harsher resolution in July 2013, arguing that it could not support “effecting regime change by sleight of hand,” and opposed the United States’ proposed punitive missile strikes. Indeed, India’s foreign ministry continues to assert on its website that “India and Syria enjoy friendly political relations based on historic and civilizational ties.”
What explains India’s reluctance to involve itself in the Middle East? In part, New Delhi is wary of supporting popular uprisings that it views as causing regional instability and disruptions in the global energy market. The Indian government heavily subsidizes public sector domestic oil companies and products -- New Delhi has spent 1.4 percent of India’s GDP on fuel subsidies since 2008 -- and is therefore particularly vulnerable to market volatility, especially if the Indian rupee falls relative to the U.S. dollar.India has another vested interest in the Middle East’s status quo: remittances. Given the substantial population of Indian citizens in the Middle East -- Libya was home to some 18,000 in 2011, for example, and Iraq to 10,000 this year -- it is no surprise that the region provides India with its highest remittances. In 2012, for example, India received $69 billion in remittances, of which $30 billion came from the Gulf States, including $15 billion from the United Arab Emirates and $8 billion from Saudi Arabia. Instability, in the form of Western interventions, domestic unrest, and the like, threatens this cash flow.In addition to these economic concerns, New Delhi has deeper ideological reasons for its opposition to intervention in the Middle East. Indian policymakers tend to view recent Western intervention in the Middle East as comparable to the U.S.-funded and Pakistan-led effort to support opposition forces in Afghanistan after the Soviet Union’s invasion in 1979. In the Indian view, it was the West’s intervention that primed Afghanistan for the growth and spread of radical Islam. Suhasini Haidar, strategic & diplomatic affairs editor of the Indian newspaper The Hindu, summarized the feelings of many Indians in a July 2014 op-ed: “Each of the countries today at the center of the world’s concerns over extremism is, in fact, a country that has seen direct or indirect Western intervention, not Western absence -- Afghanistan, Syria, Libya, and Iraq.” Moreover, India is particularly wary of Saudi Arabia’s role in supporting ultra-conservative Islamists, a caution compounded by India’s pragmatic relationship with Iran, Saudi Arabia’s regional rival.
These beliefs explain why, during Modi’s first official visit to Washington in September, he ruled out India joining the U.S.-led coalition against ISIS, which includes Saudi Arabia but excludes Iran. It also helps explain why India has not supported opposition forces in Syria: Like Moscow and Tehran, New Delhi sees the Assad government as an authoritarian but secular regime that has been attacked by fundamentalists armed and funded by the West, and believes the civil war will lead to long-term disorder, further extremism, or both. For now, India appears unlikely to broaden its role in the Middle East. At the Geneva II peace talks in early 2014, for example, India appeared unwilling to use its influence over the Assad regime to help broker an end to the Syrian civil war. Unlike countries such as Turkey that revel in the pomp of mediation, India sees advantage in obscurity: Why invite global scrutiny of its position on a sectarian civil war, the argument goes, when the prospects of success are so low and the likelihood of alienating one side so high?The fate of the Middle East, home to roughly seven million Indians, has long been tied to that of India.
In September, an article in the Hindustan Times newspaper suggested that, in the wake of the spread of ISIS, New Delhi would consider offering “material and financial” support to the Kurdistan Regional Government. “India has traditionally been wary of taking steps that can be seen as support for separatist elements in Iraq,” a senior Indian official is quoted as saying. “But in light of the changing geopolitics of the region, we need to hedge our bets with all key players.” But there has been little follow-up from the Indian government, and it remains unclear what commitments, if any, will be made.
India has too much on its regional plate -- an increasingly violent border with Pakistan, growing Chinese influence in the Indian Ocean, and a fragile Afghanistan -- to devote serious resources to the Middle East. But a nation that seeks a permanent seat on the UN Security Council and has so many economic and security interests at stake in the Middle East could benefit from a larger role. Any future military role, however, would have to be predicated on a robust UN-authorised multilateral framework, something that is likely to prove elusive.New Delhi could nevertheless leverage its unusual position -- positive relations with both Iran and Israel, for instance -- to play an important role in regional diplomacy. A larger and more diverse Indian diplomatic and intelligence footprint in the region would also help India protect its citizens and understand the complex mosaic of regional players in a place like northern Iraq. And, as Russian and Chinese interest in the Middle East grows, Western powers should welcome a broader and deeper Indian role.
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