Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Prem » 26 Sep 2015 01:29

http://theweek.com/articles/578815/how- ... ss-pacific
How America used 3 stealth subs to show China who's still the boss of the Pacific


Major missile tests are potentially provocative and destabilizing. America's intent in the aftermath of the Chinese tests was to signal U.S. strength with just the right amount and kind of potential force. Submarines seemed to fit the bill, as if Washington were saying to Beijing, "Sure, you might surprise us with your missiles. But we remember we have plenty of missiles of our own — and they're not far from you."Greg Torode reported on the incident for the South China Morning Post:
The appearance of the USS Michigan in Pusan, South Korea, the USS Ohio in Subic Bay, in The Philippines and the USS Florida in the strategic Indian Ocean outpost of Diego Garcia not only reflects the trend of escalating submarine activity in East Asia, but carries another threat as well.
Between them, the three submarines can carry 462 Tomahawks, boosting by an estimated 60 percent — plus the potential Tomahawk strike force of the entire Japanese-based Seventh Fleet — the core projection of U.S. military power in East Asia. …One veteran Asian military attaché, who keeps close ties with both Chinese and U.S. forces, noted that "460-odd Tomahawks is a huge amount of potential firepower in anybody's language.""It is another sign that the U.S. is determined to not just maintain its military dominance in Asia, but to be seen doing so — that is a message for Beijing and for everybody else, whether you are a U.S. ally or a nation sitting on the fence."

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby NRao » 26 Sep 2015 02:02

SSridhar Sir, no use using history or logic. Chinese and Pakistan rewrite them on a regular basis.

India needs to carry a bigger stick, both militarily and politically. And use that stick at least with Pakistan. Start by instructing China to leave PoK, by end of June 2016.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby member_19686 » 26 Sep 2015 06:27

08.11.2015 18:22

Racing toward a Population Cliff
China could have fewer than 600 million people by the end of the century, but misleading statistics are blinding policymakers and the public to the danger

A recent report released by the United Nations Population Division (UNPD) predicts that China's population will reach 1.42 billion people by the end of 2025 and fall to slightly above 1 billion by the end of the century. Alternative scenarios range from 613 million to 1.56 billion people at the end of the century.
This makes the worries among Chinese researchers and the public that the population will collapse absent drastic corrective measures seem unfounded. However, a closer look at the historical data from the UN shows it has always overestimated the growth of China's population.
From 2000 to 2015, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) indicate the population rose by no more than 109 million people. The median estimate made in 2000 by the UNPD for the same period, however, said the growth would be 135 million. It also predicted that China would have 1.46 billion people by the end of 2050. Over the years it had to lower the figure repeatedly to reflect the actual changes. In 2010, the estimate was reduced to less than 1.3 billion.
The overestimation was rooted in invalid assumptions about the fertility rate – the number of children a woman has during her life. In 2000, for example, the UNPD expected the fertility rate in China to be 1.9 from 2010 to 2015. Meanwhile, data from the NBS put the number at 1.18, 1.04, 1.26 and 1.24 from 2010 to 2013.
In 2010, the UNDP revised its estimation for China's fertility rates from 2010 to 2015 to 1.31, 1.56 and 1.81 in three scenarios. But even the lowest figure was still higher than NBS' highest number. That means the real fertility rate of the population from 2010 to 2013 could be lower than the most conservative estimate by the UNPD. Despite this, the organization's most recent estimate of China's population by the end of the century (1.04 billion) was actually higher than its estimate of 941 million five years ago.

This seems odd considering that UNPD's estimates about the populations of many other countries often seemed conservative. Why does it overestimate China's population? The reason probably has to do with family planning authorities.
The 2000 NBS census suggested that China's fertility rate was only 1.22. But the final result was changed to 1.8 because the then Population and Family Planning Commission – which has been folded into the National Health and Family Planning Commission – insisted that many people did not truthfully report how many children they had. This revision had been widely questioned by critics.
Ten years later, data from the 2010 census suggested that a more accurate fertility rate back then was about 1.34. From 2010 to 2013, NBS surveys showed fertility rates ranging from 1.04 to 1.26. Officials from the family planning commission, however, still claimed that the rates were between 1.5 and 1.6. Not surprisingly, the UNPD's forecasts about China's population from 2010 to 2015 were based on a fertility rate, which the officials would agree, of 1.55.
Ironically, the family planning authorities have been fond of citing research from the UNPD to support their views about the country's population in advertising to the public and advocating policies to the central government.
The divergence between UNPD's estimation and reality will only widen over time. Currently, less than 17 million people are born in China every year. Within a generation, the number will probably shrink to only 6 million at a fertility rate of 1.4 and based on the assumption that there will be 44 percent fewer women aged from 23 to 28.
The decline will continue. We expect that the population by the end of the century will fall under 600 million, lower than the lowest estimate by the UNPD.
Even this could be too optimistic because we assumed a more favorable policy environment than what we are seeing. More importantly, the established social institutions and public opinions on child-bearing, which discourage birth, will continue to affect the population for generations to come even if the government reverses its stance on family planning overnight. The shrinking of China's population will not stop by the end of this century; it may become worse after that.
To put this in perspective, in 1820, China made up 35 percent of the world's population. Now it accounts for only 19 percent. Every year, newborns in China made up 12 percent of the world's total. In about a generation or two, the ratio may fall to only 3.4 percent, considering that China's fertility rate is only half of the global average.
This paints a very different picture about China's population than the one by the UNPD. In fact, despite all sorts of evidence suggesting that the country is neck deep in a population crisis, family planning authorities and the UNPD have continued to spread misleading information that blinds people to the cliff we're racing toward. This is also why we have not been able to relax the one-child policy even more. In fact, lifting all restrictions on child birth is not enough now. The government must start encouraging birth like all other countries with low fertility rates.
Huang Wenzheng is a biostatistics expert at Johns Hopkins University. Liang Jianzhang is a co-founder and chairman of Ctrip.com International Ltd. This is a translated excerpt of a commentary they published on Caixin's Chinese website

http://english.caixin.com/2015-08-11/100838459.html

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 26 Sep 2015 18:59

Obama, Xi agree on cyber crimes, climate, but clash on South China Sea - Melissa Sim, The Straits Times
US President Barack Obama and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed that their governments would not engage in or support online theft for commercial gain - a first step towards resolving a major area of tension between the two nations.

Speaking at a joint press-conference on Friday (Sept 25), after two-days of meetings, Mr Obama said the leaders had "jointly affirmed the principal that governments don't engage in cyber espionage for the gain of commercial companies".

He later added that the two countries had made "significant progress" in agreeing to how law enforcement would work together to "go after individuals or enemies engaging in cyber attacks".

Mr Xi, who is on his first state visit to the US Capitol, said in agreement that "both countries have reached important consensus on joint fight against cyber crimes" and added that the nations would establish a "high level joint dialogue mechanism" to address the matter.

The tone of cooperation was, however, tempered by Mr Obama's statement when taking questions from reporters that they would continue to monitor if "words are followed by actions" and assess if "progress has been made in this area".

He added that the US has tools to clamp down on the problem, including the ability to impose sanctions on individuals or entities that conduct cyber attacks.

Mr Xi's trip comes at a time when US-China relations are fraught with tension over outstanding issues such as Chinese hacking, its aggression in contested waters in the South China Sea and its treatment of civil society.

While the two countries came together on issues such as climate change - both reaffirming their shared commitment to address it, and Mr Obama commending China for announcing a cap on trade emissions - there was still tension on the issue of the South China Sea.

Mr Obama reiterated US concerns about "land reclamation, construction and militarisation of disputed areas, which make it harder for countries to resolve disputes peacefully".

But Mr Xi did not back down on China's claims to the islands in those contested waters, saying it would defend those claims in the face of competing claims by neighbouring countries.

"Islands in the South China Sea, since ancient times, are China’s territory. We have the right to uphold our own territorial sovereignty and lawful and legitimate maritime rights and interests,” Xi told the joint press conference.


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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby vijaykarthik » 27 Sep 2015 11:05

^^FTA:
"Islands in the South China Sea, since ancient times, are China’s territory. We have the right to uphold our own territorial sovereignty and lawful and legitimate maritime rights and interests,” Xi told the joint press conference.

No, in the ancient times, there was no concept of territory / China / anything remotely significant. It was predominantly shared territory with the concept of tribal states and no clear borders. Revisionist approaches has its limits and just because some Chinese general made his way to Tibet / Nepal / SCS during some period circa 1545 and peed there for a couple nights doesn't make it his territory. How stupid can this approach be? And whats more significant: why arent the other countries questioning this stupidy in approach?

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby A_Gupta » 29 Sep 2015 01:43

China proliferates think-tanks:
http://blogs.cfr.org/asia/2015/09/28/ch ... p-forward/
China is experiencing a think-tank great leap forward. Governments, universities, and non-governmental actors have all jumped on the bandwagon of growing and creating think tanks. In responding to the government’s call to build fifty to a hundred high-end think tanks “with Chinese characteristics,” existing think tanks were quick to release reform and rebuilding plans, while new think tanks mushroomed in China. Just this month, at least ten new think tanks were reported to have been launched.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby ldev » 29 Sep 2015 04:21

Link posted by Saurav Jha via his twitter account. The video is uploaded August 24 so this standoff appears to be quite recent.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 29 Sep 2015 17:18

After Chinese incursion bids, ITBP to set up new command in Leh - PTI
In the wake of frequent incursion bids by Chinese People's Liberation Army, Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) will be establishing a new command at Leh and the process of setting up over 40 modern border outposts in the icy heights of Ladakh has been initiated.

The ITBP, which mans the 4,086km long Sino-Indian border from Ladakh to Arunachal Pradesh, has decided to establish a sector command which will be headed by an inspector general of police rank, official sources said on Monday.

ITBP, which is the first point of response to any incursion by the PLA, earlier had a Frontier headquarter headed by two deputy inspector generals based at Leh and Srinagar. Both these officers reported to an inspector general based at Chandigarh.

The government has accepted the demand of the ITBP for creation of a sector command to facilitate taking decisions at crucial times without any loss of time, the sources said.

"The inspector general's office has been shifted from Chandigarh to Ladakh where the Army Corps Commander sits. This has been done for better coordination between the two forces present to secure the China border areas," a senior official of the ITBP said.

The Army, which carved out a separate corps after the Kargil intrusion in 1999, had been demanding operational control over the ITBP, which has been time and again rejected by the government.

In a related development, work has been initiated for setting up 40 border outposts in the icy heights of Ladakh to be manned by ITBP jawans who guard the border of the country in hostile weather at many places where the mercury slips to minus 40 degrees celsius.


Just to recall. On June 10, 2014, a day after the Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi left New Delhi after having come as a special representative of Pres. Xi Jinping to the new Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, India sanctioned 54 new border posts in Arunachal Pradesh along its 1126 Km border with China, for the ITBP. . In October 2014, the Home Minister Rajnath Singh announced the recruitment of 12 new battalions (12000 personnel) to man the 54 new BoPs that have been sanctioned. In October 2014, the ITBP began acquiring high-end surveillance cameras that could see over 20 km deep into Chinese territory. One had been already installed in Leh and 50 more were being inducted.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 30 Sep 2015 13:09

India, US, Japan to work together to maintain maritime security - IANS, Economic Times
Reflecting the growing convergence of their individual interests in the Indo-Pacific region, India, US and Japan have agreed to work together to maintain maritime security through greater collaboration.

The agreement was reached at the inaugural US-India-Japan Trilateral Ministerial dialogue held here {New York} on Tuesday on the sidelines of the 70th UN General Assembly session.

US Secretary of State John Kerry hosted the dialogue with Indian External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj and Japanese Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida.

Representing a quarter of the world's population and economic production power, the three countries highlighted their shared support for peace, democracy, prosperity, and a rules-based international order, according to a joint statement.

The three ministers highlighted the growing convergence of their respective countries' interests in the Indo-Pacific region.

They also underscored the importance of international law and peaceful settlement of disputes; freedom of navigation and overflight; and unimpeded lawful commerce, including in the South China Sea
, it said.


They reiterated their support for ASEAN centrality in the multilateral political and security architecture in the Asia-Pacific region and emphasized the importance of the East Asia Summit as the premier leaders-level forum for addressing key political and security issues of the region.

The three countries agreed to work together to maintain maritime security through greater collaboration
, the statement said.

The US and India welcomed Japan's participation in the 2015 MALABAR exercise.

Recognizing the three countries' extensive disaster response capabilities and converging interests, the three sides agreed to convene an experts-level group on humanitarian assistance and disaster relief to enhance ability to respond jointly to complex disasters.

In an effort to capitalise on collective capacities in promoting regional economic linkages, the three ministers launched an experts-level group on regional connectivity to identify collaborative efforts that can help strengthen regional connectivity, including between South and Southeast Asia.

The three ministers expressed interest in exploring trilateral cooperation on women's skill enhancement and economic empowerment to further social and economic development.

All three ministers welcomed the inaugural Trilateral Ministerial as a platform for strengthening cooperation and noted their interest in meeting again.


This is a big announcement indeed. The ASEAN countries, except perhaps Laos & Cambodia, would be pleased by the thrust of the statement. This would further enhance the status of India among the ASEAN countries. India & the US jointly welcoming Japan into Malabar and expressing that openly in the joint statement should address Chinese objections and its frequent attempts with India to drive a wedge between us & the Japanese. The centrality of ASEAN & East Asia Summit as the key meeting of the leaders, nixes any attempts by China from usurping these. When it talks of convergence among the three nations, it makes their position clear. It is as good as an alliance in the Indo-Pacific. An excellent first trilateral meeting.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 06 Oct 2015 11:09

US warns against 'egregious' restrictions in contested South China Sea - Reuters
SYDNEY: Some countries appear to view freedom of the seas as "up for grabs" in the South China Sea, imposing superfluous warnings and restrictions that threaten stability, a US Navy commander said on Tuesday in comments apparently aimed at China.

Admiral Scott Swift, commander of the US Pacific Fleet, said in a strongly worded address in Australia the United States remained "as committed as ever" to protect freedom of navigation through the region.

"It's my sense that some nations view freedom of the seas as up for grabs, as something that can be taken down and redefined by domestic law or by reinterpreting international law," Swift told a maritime conference in Sydney.

"Some nations continue to impose superfluous warnings and restrictions on freedom of the seas in their exclusive economic zones and claim territorial water rights that are inconsistent with (the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea). This trend is particularly egregious in contested waters."

"Put simply, we will continue to exercise freedom of the seas for all nations, because we know from painful past experience, to shirk this responsibility and obligation, puts much more at risk than any one nation's maritime interests," Swift said.

China last month said it was "extremely concerned" about a suggestion by a top US commander that US ships and aircraft should challenge China's claims in the South China Sea by patrolling close to artificial islands it has built.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby NRao » 06 Oct 2015 12:17

China could have fewer than 600 million people by the end of the century, but misleading statistics are blinding policymakers and the public to the danger


filed under Acronyms.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 08 Oct 2015 09:07

India's naval diplomacy aims to contain China: China's Global Times - PTI, Economic Times
India has launched a naval diplomacy campaign to garner support from Australia, Japan and Vietnam for countering China's maritime expansion into the Indian Ocean, a Chinese official daily said today.

State-run Global Times in its report on Indian Naval Ship (INS) Sahyadri's visit to Vietnam's port city Da Nang and Japan, said, "Vietnam and Japan are currently embroiled in territorial disputes with China in the South China and East China seas, respectively, and are very willing to partner with India to form diplomatic and security ties under the threat of Chinese maritime expansion."

"The three nations together would be able to form a coalition that could surround China from both the northern and southern regions of the Indian Ocean," it said.

As part of India's Look East and Act East Policy, indigenously built multi-role stealth frigate INS Sahyadri entered Vietnam's port city Da Nang on October 2 for a four-day visit.

The visit of INS Sahyadri was aimed at strengthening bilateral ties and enhancing inter-operational abilities between navies of India and Vietnam.

On departure from Da Nang, the ship proceeded to participate in the International Fleet Review at Sagami Bay in Japan.

The daily also highlighted Chief of Naval Staff, Admiral R K Dhowan's visit to Australia to consolidate existing maritime cooperation initiatives, as well as explore new avenues.

"To prevent China from expanding its maritime power into the Indian Ocean, New Delhi has launched a naval diplomacy campaign to garner support from Australia, Japan and Vietnam," it said.

It said Admiral Dhowan's Australia's visit coincided with the prestigious annual Sea Power Conference organised by the Royal Australian Navy.

"Dhowan used the opportunity to engage with the heads of navies from 40 different countries around the globe. Australia is currently one of the staging bases for US military operations in the disputed South China Sea, where China has been building artificial islands in the face of competing claims from the Philippines and Vietnam, among other countries," the daily said.


India and Australia are both the members of the Indian Ocean Naval Symposium, formed by 35 different littoral states in the Indian Ocean to maintain regional stability.

Australia and India held their first bilateral maritime exercise, known as Ausindex, off the coast of India last month.

China gets very sensitive about foreign naval vessels visiting countries along the South China Sea, where it has maritime disputes with Vietnam, the Philippines, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan as well as East China Sea, where it locked in a dispute with Japan over uninhabited islands.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 09 Oct 2015 11:19

Pressure on China to counter TPP agreement's impact: Analysts - Straits Times
China, the biggest economy to be excluded from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), has made a veiled call for the trade pact to observe international rules and contribute to the Asia-Pacific.

The Chinese Commerce Ministry said yesterday that China is "open to any mechanism that follows the rules of the World Trade Organisation and boosts the economic integration of the Asia-Pacific". "We hope the TPP and other free trade arrangements in the region can boost each other and contribute to the Asia-Pacific's trade, investment and economic growth," the ministry added in a statement on its website.

The Chinese media has mostly downplayed the TPP - viewed here as one of Washington's tools to curb Beijing's rise - and questioned whether members could get domestic approval in time.

Observers say the TPP would pose challenges for China's economy and influence, making its counter-efforts more crucial now. These include revival of two ancient trade routes under the "One Belt, One Road" (Obor) initiatives aimed at deepening trade links.

People's Daily senior editor Ding Gang noted that the TPP would affect China's manufacturing sector, given that a prescribed proportion of a product would have to comprise items sourced from TPP members to enjoy lower tariff. He also believes the pact could affect the Obor initiatives, as they do not have any free trade element. "Some countries might be more inclined to join the TPP," Mr Ding wrote in a commentary yesterday.

China is aiming to conclude talks this year on the 16-nation Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership comprising Asean as well as India, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand. China has also inked several free trade agreements lately, such as with Australia, to counter the TPP's impact.

Debate was again stirred yesterday on whether China should join the TPP. Some observers say joining the free trade agreement before China can meet the standards may do more harm to its image and businesses.

Financial commentator Lei Sihai said the key obstacle is the TPP's investor-state dispute settlement mechanism, which allows foreign investors to take action against host states over the impact of national laws or policies. "In the light of the impact on our national sovereignty, the likelihood of China joining the TPP is remote. China will need to use its own tactics to counter the US' master plan," he wrote in a commentary yesterday.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 11 Oct 2015 07:14

China vows to keep building in disputed reefs - AFP
China on Saturday vowed to continue building in disputed reefs of the South China Sea, as state media said construction had finished on two lighthouses on reefs claimed by other countries.

Beijing has been bolstering its claim to almost all the South China Sea by rapidly building large artificial structures resembling islands, straining ties with neighbours. The 50-metre-high lighthouses on Cuateron Reef and Johnson South Reef in the Spratly islands have been officially opened, the state-run Xinhua news agency said late Friday.

China’s building has increased tensions with Washington, which has condemned the structures. — AFP

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Austin » 12 Oct 2015 12:48

IDSA COMMENT

China as a Peer of the United States: Implications of the Joint Statement of September 25, 2015

Mukul Sanwal

October 01, 2015

China is emerging as a peer and partner of the United States in international affairs. India’s response should be to work with China in the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank and in China’s ‘Road and belt’ initiative to make the ‘Asian Century’ a reality as well as in the G20, which China will chair in 2016 (and India in 2018), to begin shaping the future global agenda, ‘global goods’ and institutions, including reform of the United Nations, while maintaining strategic autonomy to safeguard its maritime trade routes.

New partners in climate change

In the US-China Joint Statement on Climate Change, President Obama has met the criticism of the US Senate that unilateral emissions reductions should not give China a competitive advantage while President Xi has achieved for developing countries what the G77 collectively was finding difficult to attain.

On 25 September, Xi and Obama outlined their “Vision for the Paris Climate Conference”, (re) defining the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities as a system that provides flexibility to developing countries “in light of their capacities” and “that differentiation should be reflected in relevant elements of the agreement in an appropriate manner”.

They also agreed on joint support for a “global transition to a low carbon economy, renewed focus on adaptation “as a key component of the long-term response” to build resilience and reduce vulnerability and the “crucial role of major technological advancement in the transition”.

The Statement recognises that transparency provisions have to include both ‘action’ as well as ‘support’ provided to developing countries – a long standing demand of developing countries. Also, transparency provisions are expected to “provide flexibility to those developing countries that need it in light of their capacities”, emphasising differentiation.

The Joint Statement moves beyond the post-colonial North-South dichotomy and welcomes the provision of resources from countries “willing to do so;” it is no longer seen as a commitment based on notions of historical responsibility. Both countries will provide USD 3 billion each to help poor countries, with China announcing the establishment of a China South-South Climate Cooperation Fund. This puts pressure on all developed countries to enhance contributions towards the USD 100 billion to be provided by 2020. The need for bilateral investments to encourage low-carbon technologies and climate resilience, equating mitigation and adaptation (even though these terms are not mentioned) provides an opening to discuss the role of public finance in the transition.

By endorsing a global goal of “low-carbon transformation” within the 21st century – convergence on an overarching meta-global goal is a significant development which the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) were not able to achieve – the statement also serves to define the ‘Objective’ of the Convention; something which has eluded the multilateral process since 1992.

New forms of international co-operation


Xi used his address to the United Nations General Assembly to reiterate China's call for a "new type of international relations based on win-win cooperation." He added: "We should resolve disputes and difficulties through dialogue and consultation," as “the law of the jungle leaves the weak at the mercy of the strong."

Xi emphasised that China represents less powerful nations through its seat on the Security Council ("China’s vote at the U.N. will always belong to developing countries") and projected China as a champion of the developing countries.

The trip was planned so there would be major funding announcements on each of the three days Xi was at the UN General Assembly in New York, as that is what concerns the G77 the most. He pledged establishment of an assistance fund for South-South cooperation to implement the SDGs with USD 2 billion dollars; increasing investment in LDCs to USD 12 billion by 2030; and the exemption of debt owed by LDCs, LLDCs, and SIDS on interest-free loans; a USD 10 million contribution to the UN women’s agency, a USD 1 billion ‘peace and development’ fund and USD 100 million in military aid for the African Union. He also co-hosted a women’s summit at the UN.

China already contributes more peacekeepers than other permanent members of the Security Council. Xi promised to send the first Chinese helicopter squad to join peacekeeping in Africa, train 2,000 peacekeepers from other countries in China over the next five years, and build a peacekeeping standby force of 8,000 troops. Xi’s largesse portrays China as a contributor to global growth and security amid international concerns about China’s economic stability and military ambitions.

Global rules for the new services and knowledge economy

Over time, Xi’s success in implementing sweeping market reforms aimed at changing China’s economic model from an investment and export-driven one to an innovative consumer-driven and service-oriented one may be the critical factor in shaping Beijing’s economic and foreign policies in the future, as the economic relationship with the US will remain key.

Cyber issues are now among larger concerns in the economic relationship, with bilateral trade totalling USD 590 billion in 2014 and China holding USD 1.2 trillion in US Treasury bonds. On cyber-security it was agreed that “neither country’s government will conduct or knowingly support cyber-enabled theft of intellectual property, including trade secrets or other confidential business information, with the intent of providing competitive advantages to companies or commercial sectors.” In addition, Xi and Obama agreed to create a cabinet-level mechanism and a hotline to address concerns. Both pledged to cooperate in creating a global code of conduct for cyber security. The Bilateral investment treaty Talks stalled as each side offered “negative lists” of items to be excluded and these lists can wall off industries considered strategic such as energy, aviation, telecommunications or access to state-owned industry procurement.
New co-operative multilateralism

The United States and China will remain the key global actors in developing a multilateral consensus on global issues as long as they successfully represent the concerns of the others. In an inter-connected world, the outcome will be a new model of co-operative multilateralism supplemented by bilateral understandings between national stakeholders that do not require the mediation of the United Nations Secretariat and prolonged negotiations over obscure texts.

The post-world war multilateralism involved agenda setting by the G7 balanced by the G77 laying out their interests, or positions, at the start of a multilateral negotiation. Subsequent rounds of negotiations were designed to narrow the differences with secretariat documents suggesting consensus language and calls to capitals. Last minute compromises and trade-offs are very much part of the process, leaving most developing countries unhappy. The result has been continuing tension and the need for a United Nations secretariat to help mediate between the groups, siding more with the funders in achieving their goals. This arrangement has, at least for climate change, now lost its relevance.

The 21st century, characterised by the majority of the middle class living in cities, a post-industrial knowledge economy and global trade dominated by services rather than goods, needs to respond effectively to global concerns through means for agenda-setting and securing a global consensus very different to those adopted for a fractured world emerging from colonialism and world war. With the two largest economies and most powerful countries, that cut across the political divide, emerging as peers and partners, agenda setting will require wider consultation in the G20, which China will chair next year. India, too, must shape the contours of the new multilateralism by working with China.

New military and strategic balance in Asia

The Dongfeng (East wind) 21D “carrier-killer” missile, which made a public appearance in a military parade on 3 September 2015, with a range of 1,550 km and a projected 10 times the speed of sound (faster than anything that could intercept it) after re-entering the atmosphere can manoeuvre on to a target, making it theoretically capable of landing a large warhead on or near a moving ship. Some analysts say such missiles reduce the threat from aircraft carriers — which form the basis of current US naval strategy — just what aircraft carriers themselves did to battleships with Japan’s 1941 attack on Pearl Harbour. While the potency of the DF-21D is debated in the defence community, these capabilities are changing the balance of power in Asia against the United States requiring it to strengthen its alliance system.

The geopolitical world order established by the United States after World War II is unravelling because of the geo-economic shift to Asia. China’s Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank has served to focus minds in Europe and East Asia. The new Bank will be a rival to the IMF and World Bank and the US risks losing its ability to shape international economic rules, and global influence that goes with it. The UK described the decision as an “irresistible opportunity” and brought accusations from Washington about London’s “constant accommodation” of China, reflecting the two world-views on the emerging global order.

For India, the lesson from the failed US attempt to obstruct the new bank is that, as Asia’s urbanisation will require more than USD 8 trillion to be spent on infrastructure in this decade, countries in the region will welcome all the support they can get. Rather than be suspicious of China’s motives and seek to prevent the ‘Belt and road’ initiative, it should deal with the strategic concerns by joining in the development projects, for example, by providing the software packages required in the management of the ports. A mutual recognition of special interests of each other in the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean should be a strategic objective, and will be a strategic win-win for both.

The ‘Asian Century’ provides an integrating theme to focus minds on shaping the economic integration of Asia, where two-thirds of future global growth is going to come from, and the alignment of the rail, road, sea routes and gas pipelines from Iran, for example, can position India as a node for South and Western Asia. Including a services component in the projects will add to their productivity and support cooperation between the Asian giants; trade is a win-win proposition.

Conclusion

The global trend is that countries are gaining in influence more because of the strength of their economy than the might of their military. India can either drift into the future remaining in its periphery or it can shape the future jointly with China to become one of the two engines of the Asian economy. China is likely to remain the world’s largest producer of goods and India has the potential to be the largest producer of services in the largest consumer market. According to McKinsey and Company, the services sector will be the real driver of growth in Asia as affluence will be concentrated in cities. The ability to design, finance, build and implement the big data-technology systems will be the defining comparative advantage in the future, and India and China can work together to make this happen sharing their respective expertise. The complex interdependencies will be a strong stabilising force.

According to Prime Minister Modi, China and India are “two bodies, one spirit” and President Xi has emphasised the “need to become global partners having strategic coordination”. The G20 meeting in 2016 provides the opportunity for the Asian giants to work together to define a global agenda, ‘global public goods’ and institutions to respond to the global middle class and the Asian Century with two centres of gravity, with India seeking to achieve this joint agenda when it chairs the G20 in 2018.

Mukul Sanwal was Director, United Nations, 1993-2008.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby panduranghari » 12 Oct 2015 16:51

Mukul Sanwal past Director, United Nations, 1993-2008 wrote:India can either drift into the future remaining in its periphery or it can shape the future jointly with China to become one of the two engines of the Asian economy


I am reminded of the dialogue by Gandalf from LOTR - 'There is only one lord of the ring and he does not share power'. Why are we supposed to accommodate China? India is going to be an engine of growth without or without Chinese/American help. Niall Ferguson who is a respected economist has written since 2005 about the death of Globalisation.Though we do not need to agree with everything he writes or says, he is on the ball about this. The Han is perfidious. Why do we forget this lesson time and again? China has more to loose than anyone with the problems in the OROB implementation. Why can't the Han accommodate the 'Mausam' initiative. They never will. And we have people like Shri Sanwal recommending masochistic policies.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Paul » 12 Oct 2015 16:54

Not to worry...It is Hindu Taqqiya. Narrative is to gain time to build muscle. Chances are even Sanwal may not know this

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 13 Oct 2015 10:49

Not worried about Malabar drills: Beijing - The Hindu
While the Indian Army was conducting joint counter-terror drills with the Chinese in Kunming, the navies of U.S. and India and the Japanese Maritime Self Defence Force began interactions in the run up to Exercise Malabar 2015 in the Bay of Bengal. Ten ships — four of U.S., five from India and one from Japan — are participating in the exercise that is being closely watched by China.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying reacted sharply when asked about the exercise on Monday: “You mentioned India is having naval exercises with U.S. and Japan and you ask whether China is concerned. I think you are thinking too much…Everyday a lot of activities take place around the world. We cannot connect every activity with China.

We are not that fragile and we are having sound relationship with both India and the U.S. We hope that relevant activities will contribute to the regional stability they will contribute more positive energy for that,” she added.

The motley army exercise between India and China pales in front of the scale and size of the naval drills involving the three countries, where the U.S. is fielding a massive aircraft carrier with 90 fighters, a nuclear submarine, and two other warships and a P-8A Poseidon maritime surveillance aircraft. The Indian side is fielding a Rajput class destroyer, two other ships, a conventional submarine and a P-8I maritime surveillance aircraft. Japanese Maritime Self Defence Force is deploying an Akizuki-class guided missile destroyer.

The exercise will begin on October 16 in full swing after the ships are in the high seas, and will go on for four days.

In 2007, when the Malabar exercise featured countries other than just India and U.S., China raised objections.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 13 Oct 2015 15:55

China operationalises biggest dam on Brahmaputra in Tibet - PTI
BEIJING: China on Tuesday operationalised the USD 1.5 billion Zam Hydropower Station, the largest in Tibet, built on the Brahmaputra river, which has raised concerns in India over the likelihood of disrupting water supplies.

All six of the station's units were incorporated into the power grid on Tuesday, the China Gezhouba Group, a major hydropower contractor based in Wuhan, capital of Hubei Province in central China told state-run Xinhua news agency.

Located in the Gyaca County, Shannan Prefecture, the Zam Hydropower Station also known as Zangmu Hydropower Station, harnesses the rich water resources of Brahmaputra known in Tibet as Yarlung Zangbo River, a major river which flows through Tibet into India and later into Bangladesh.

The dam, considered to be the world's highest-altitude hydropower station and the largest of its kind, will produce 2.5 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity a year.

"It will alleviate the electricity shortage in central Tibet and empower the development of the electricity-strapped region. It is also an important energy base in central Tibet," the company said.

Officials said when the electricity is ample in the summer season, part of the electricity will be transmitted to the neighbouring Qinghai province, Xinhua report said.

Investment of the hydropower station, about 140 kilometers from Tibetan capital Lhasa, totalled 9.6 billion yuan (about USD 1.5 billion).

The first unit began operations last November.

Reports in the past said besides Zangmu, China is reportedly building few more dams. China seeks to ally Indian fears saying that they are the run-of-the-river projects which were not designed to hold water.

The dams also raised concerns in India over China's ability to release water in times of conflict which could pose serious risk of flooding.

An Indian inter-ministerial expert group (IMEG) on the Brahmaputra in 2013 said the dams were being built on the upper reaches and called for further monitoring considering their impact on the flow of waters to the lower reaches.

The IMEG noted that the three dams, Jiexu, Zangmu and Jiacha are within 25km of each other and are 550km from the Indian border.


India has been taking up the issue with China for the past few years the two countries reached.

Under the understanding reached in 2013, Chinese side agreed to provide more flood data of Brahmaputra from May to October instead of June to October
in the previous agreements river water agreements in 2008 and 2010.

India is concerned that if the waters are diverted, then projects on the Brahmaputra, particularly the Upper Siang and Lower Suhansri projects in Arunachal Pradesh, may get affected.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 13 Oct 2015 16:02

In October 2010, China started damming the Brahmaputra at Zangmu in Tibet for a hydroelectric project (510 MW). In 2007, when I visited Tibet, I saw extensive survey work being carried out at Zangmu. It is generally unwilling to reveal data about such projects that could affect lower riparian states. In February 2013, the Chinese media reported green signal from the State Council (or Cabinet) to build three hydroelectric power generating dams in the middle reaches (between Lhasa and the Great Bend of the Brahmaputra river). A 640 MW dam will be built in Dagu, which lies 18 km upstream of Zangmu. Another 320 MW dam will be built at Jiacha, downstream of Zangmu. A third dam will be built at Jiexu, 11 km upstream of Zangmu. The New Energy Development Plan announced in January, 2013 said the government “will push forward vigorously the hydropower base construction” on the middle reaches of the Yarlung Zangbo (Brahmaputra). The massive plan to divert the river waters from south to north were temporarily on hold. However, news emerged in late August 2013, that the Chinese had conducted three to four low-yield PNEs (Peaceful Nuclear Explosions) deep underground in c. 2005 to divert Brahmaputra. It has been the Chinese plan to take the Brahmaputra to arid zones in the north by building a 200-km-long canal passing through Mount Namcha.

Reacting to Indian concerns, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said that China has “always taken a responsible attitude towards the utilisation and development of cross-border rivers.” Apart from making this customary statement, China has, however, shared little specific information about the status of approved or proposed new projects. The issue of the dams was raised by the Indian NSA Shiv Shankar Menon when he met his outgoing Chinese counterpart Dan Bingguo in Beijing in December, 2012. The Indian Prime Minister, Manmohan Singh, also took up this issue with the visiting Chines Prime Minister, Li Keqiang when he paid a state visit to India during May 19-21, 2013. India and China only renewed the pact on sharing hydrological data on Brahmaputra (Yarlung Tsangpo) twice a day during the flood season (June 1 to October 15) and similar data if water levels exceed mutually agreed levels during the non-flood season.. However, the Chinese side was unwilling to consider the long-standing Indian request for a joint mechanism over river water sharing especially concerning the 39 projects identified by China over the Brahmaputra.

In October 2013, a Chinese scholar accused India of pressurizing China by garnering the sympathy of the international community on the Brahmaputra issue. Li Zhifei of the National Institute of International Strategy of the influential Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, wrote in a commentary on in Global Times that India was looking to “put more pressure on China by exaggerating the facts and drawing attention from the international community, with the intention of preventing China from developing Tibetan water resources. China should firmly resist such remarks and actions, and actively seek to address disputes through following the principles of peaceful negotiation and cooperation.”.

In June 2014, during Vice President Hamid Ansari’s visit to China to mark the 60th anniversary of Panchsheel, Beijing formally agreed to allow India to “dispatch hydrological experts” to conduct study tours “according to the principle of reciprocity.” China also agreed to extend provision of hydrological data, from May 15 to October 15 every year on a daily basis, adding 15 days to an earlier agreement. The data will be provided by three stations at Nugesha, Yangcun and Nuxia in Tibet on the main stream of the river. In November 2014, the Indian Minister of state for external affairs VK Singh said, “the government would commission a study to examine the impact of the dams. It is essential to re-examine studies done in the past. It is only after through study that the risk posed by Tibetan dams could be determined. In the early 1950s, a major earthquake took place and changed the course of Brahmaputra. The river bed also went up. We have to see how much water comes from China, and how much is contributed by its different tributaries like the Lohit”.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Prem » 14 Oct 2015 01:25

An Indian Inter-Ministerial Expert Group (IMEG) on the Brahmaputra in 2013 said the dams were being built on the upper reaches and called for further monitoring considering their impact on the flow of waters to the lower reaches.The IMEG noted that the three dams, Jiexu, Zangmu and Jiacha are within 25 kms of each other and are 550 kms from the Indian border.India has been taking up the issue with China for the past few years the two countries reached.Under the understanding reached in 2013, Chinese side agreed to provide more flood data of Brahmaputra from May to October instead of June to October in the previous agreements river water agreements in 2008 and 2010.India is concerned that if the waters are diverted, then projects on the Brahmaputra, particularly the Upper Siang and Lower Suhansri projects in Arunachal Pradesh, may get affected.


http://www.deccanchronicle.com/151013/w ... iver-tibet

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 14 Oct 2015 09:43

India should be vigilant about joining anti-China camp: Chinese Media - PTI
Asserting that the Sino-India relationship is on a sound track, the Chinese media today asked India to be vigilant to the efforts to rope it into anti-China camp in the backdrop of Japan joining the Malabar naval exercises.

"The China-India relationship is on a sound track, and healthy ties are beneficial to both countries. India should be vigilant to any intentions of roping it into an anti-China camp," an article in the state-run Global Times said today highlighting that the India-China joint drills and the Malabar exercises involving the navies of India, the US and Japan are being held concurrently.

On Sunday, the 10-day India-China anti-terrorism joint military drill, code-named Hand-in-Hand 2015, commenced in the Chinese city of Kunming, Yunnan Province.

The next day, a trilateral drill by India, the US and Japan was launched in the Bay of Bengal, the article titled 'Concurrent India drills spark unnecessary speculation'.

"Malabar, a bilateral navy exercise involving the US and India, includes Japan this year. Speculation has therefore mounted that Washington and New Delhi are considering turning Japan into a permanent partner."

"Rabble-rousers say that India is eyeing China by including Japan in the Malabar exercise and the trilateral drill is targeted at China," it said.

Reacting to the Malabar exercises, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Hua Chunying told media briefing two days ago that "everyday a lot of activities takes place around the world. We can not connect every activity with China".

The Global Times article said Indian officials stressed that New Delhi has been pursuing a "multi-vectored diplomacy".

"India's policies and strategies are based on its national interests. It has been proved that over the past decades, India has stuck to independent foreign policies and never wants to be part of any coalition to contain China," it said.

"The efforts of China and India moving closer have been snubbed by the West, which tries to hype the contention of the two sides. Given the border disputes between China and India, and geopolitical rivalry as well, mutual distrust is slow to dissolve, and India is vigilant against China's rise. This creates opportunities for other countries to drive a wedge between Beijing and New Delhi," it said.

"But China and India have reached a solid consensus that continued growth in bilateral relations should not be thwarted by divergences," it said highlighting the consensus during Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to China in May that two countries "have enough political wisdom to manage and control divergences."

"Both China and India are emerging countries and share more common interests than disagreements. Since both face an arduous task of development, neither side will prioritise geopolitical competition," it said.


By the same token, China should immediately dissociate from its five-decade old anti-India nexus with Pakistan

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 14 Oct 2015 10:00

BJP document clubs China and Pakistan as “external challenge” to India - Ravish Tiwari, Economic Times
The BJP's indoctrination document for party workers refers to China as "external challenge" to India's interests, putting it in the same league as Pakistan at a time when PM Modi has been publicly pitching for development ties with the neighbour.

"We have border disputes with Pakistan and China, both these neighbouring countries create trouble on the border as well as domestic fronts," says the document prepared by the central BJP to indoctrinate 1.5 million cadres from among the over 100 million members the party has enrolled. The document alleges that both countries "have established closed diplomatic ties to harm India, which is emerging as a global power" and highlights how "China lent support to Pakistan in the UN over a proposal against (26/11 mastermind) Lakhvi".

It further alleges China supports Maoists rebels in Indian forests. "In receipt of continuous support from Pakistan and China, the Maoists have become an internal security threat," the document says.

While the document blames Pakistan for state-sponsored terrorism against India, it alleges "China does not even seem interested to resolve the border dispute that has continued for several years". The document raises alarm bells over a Chinese military build-up along the border with India, its maritime prowess and posing threat to Indian interests in the Indian Ocean.

The document points out that "though no shots have been fired along the border since 1962, and there has been no specific tension along the border, China has still been piling ammunitions along the border and maintaining competing pressure against India".

It says that "although India has always maintained a spirit of economic cooperation with China, the Chinese side has consistently ignored our economic interests at diplomatic level as well as a country of Indian Ocean".

"China has consistently been strengthening its naval power and posing danger to Indian maritime interests. This is another reason for serious worry", the document says, adding that "China has been helping Pakistan and Sri Lanka by laying a web of road along the border. This is posing challenge to Indian dominance in Indian Ocean".

The document, however, seeks to impress upon party cadres that the BJP government has sought to tackle this challenge by engaging with Nepal, Bhutan, Myanmar, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. "India has undertaken necessary effective steps to strengthen our security and intelligence sources to deal with the potential threats from China and Pakistan," the document says, laying out the efforts being made by the Narendra Modi government to deal with this challenge.

The document, which has been circulated to party cadres across the country for its ongoing nationwide training camp, reflects a sentiment that runs contrary to the public display of bonhomie between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the Chinese leadership since the BJP's return to power last summer.

The joint statement issued during Modi's visit to China early this summer said, "The leaders agreed that the process of the two countries pursuing their respective national developmental goals and security interests must unfold in a mutually supportive manner, with both sides showing mutual respect and sensitivity to each other's concerns, interests and aspirations."


This is how Desh Drohi Media reacts, by only 'alleging' Chinese misdeeds when the whole proof is there in front of our eyes. I cannot see media in any other country behaving this way about its most formidable and persistent enemy country.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Yagnasri » 14 Oct 2015 16:09

They forgot that China occupy large portions of our land and also clams few states of ours of theirs.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Austin » 14 Oct 2015 17:53

Nehru Wrote to Kennedy for Help in 1962 War With China, Says New Book
Washington: Former Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru had sought American assistance and wrote to the then US President John F Kennedy to provide India fighter jets to stem the Chinese aggression during the 1962 Sino-India war, according to a new book.

The main objective of Mao Zedong, the founding father of the People's Republic of China, to attack India in 1962 was to "humiliate" Mr Nehru who was emerging as a leader of the third world, the book said.

"India's implementation of the Forward Policy served as a major provocation to China in September 1962," Bruce Riedel, a former CIA official, wrote the book titled 'JFK's Forgotten Crisis: Tibet, the CIA and the Sino-Indian War'.

"Mao's focus was on Nehru, but a defeat of India would also be a setback for two of Mao's enemies: (Nikita) Khrushchev and Kennedy," Mr Riedel wrote.


As India was losing its territory to China fast and suffering heavy casualty, Mr Nehru in a letter to US President Kennedy in November 1962 said India needed "air transport and jet fighters to stem the Chinese tide of aggression."

"A lot more effort, both from us and from our friends will be required."

Mr Nehru wrote another letter to Mr Kennedy in quick succession, Mr Riedel writes. Mr Nehru's letter was hand delivered by the then Indian Ambassador to the US K Nehru to President Kennedy on November 19.

"Nehru was thus asking Kennedy to join the war against China by partnering in an air war to defeat the PLA (Peoples Liberation Army of China). It was a momentous request that the Indian Prime Minister was making. Just a decade after American forces had reached a cease-fire with the Chinese Community Forces in Korea, India was asking JFK to join a new war against Community China," Mr Riedel wrote in his book.

Ahead of Mr Nehru's letter, the then US Ambassador to India Galbraith sent a telegram to the White House giving the President Kennedy an advance notice that such a request was coming from Mr Nehru.

In the letter, Mr Nehru asked for 12 squadrons of US air forces, Mr Riedel told the Washington audience during the preview of the book at an event organised by the Brookings Institute -a top American think-tank - yesterday.

"A minimum of 12 squadrons of supersonic all weather fighters are essential. We have no modern radar cover in the country. The United States Air Force personnel will have to man these fighters and radar installations while our personnel are being trained," Mr Nehru wrote in the letter, which has been quoted by Mr Riedel in the book.

In addition, Mr Nehru also requested "two squadron of B-47 Bombers" to strike in Tibet, the author says quoting the letter.

In the letter, Mr Nehru assured Mr Kennedy that these bombers would not be used against Pakistan, but only for "resistance against the Chinese".

The stakes were "not merely the survival of India", Mr Nehru told Mr Kennedy "but the survival of free and independent Governments in the whole of this subcontinent or in Asia".

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 15 Oct 2015 03:49

What Bruce Riedel has said is already well known.

The only thing new that I have not come across before is his claim that the US/UK combine deterred both China and Pakistan. I think he is trying to take an opportunistic advantage here by claiming that without proof.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 15 Oct 2015 03:59

India backs Philippines on South China Sea row - Sachin Parashar, ToI
India on Wednesday backed the Philippines in its dispute with China over islands in South China Sea, which Manila calls West Philippine Sea, saying it wanted peaceful resolution to the maritime disputes, at the heart of which lies Beijing's expansive maritime claim in the form of the nine-dashed line covering 90% of the sea's waters.

India's position implies diplomatic support for the Philippines' decision to approach Permanent Court of Arbitration against Beijing's maritime claims in early 2013 and persisting with arbitration even though China boycotted the proceedings of the Arbitral Tribunal for long.

The Tribunal is likely to announce its decision this month and even if China were to ignore any adverse ruling, it will have to contend with a loss of face which, many hope, would force it to go slow on its recent military build up in South China Sea.

Foreign minister Sushma Swaraj and her counterpart Albert Del Rosario, secretary of foreign affairs, Wednesday co-chaired India-Philippines third joint commission meeting on bilateral affairs here. The joint statement issued after the meeting referred to South China Sea as West Philippine Sea, a name which Philippine started to use only after escalation of its maritime dispute with China in the region. {Bravo}

``Rosario briefed Minister Swaraj on the developments in the West Philippine Sea, and the status of the Philippine arbitration case at the Permanent Court of Arbitration, in The Hague, the Netherlands,'' said the statement.

``Minister Swaraj expressed support for the peaceful resolution of the West Philippine Sea/South China Sea dispute. Both sides reiterated the importance of the settlement of all disputes by peaceful means and of refraining from the threat or use of force, in accordance with universally accepted principles of international law, including the 1982 UNCLOS,'' it said, adding that the two ministers also reiterated the importance of safeguarding the freedom of navigation and overflight in the South China Sea.

In this regard, it said, they reiterated the importance of an expeditious conclusion on a Code of Conduct and full and effective implementation of the 2002 Declaration of the Code of Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea.{Something that China also agreed to with the ASEAN but has done nothing to conclude the Code even though the ASEAN has submitted its version of the Code a long time back}

As it seeks to engage more with countries party to the South China Sea disputes, India has not shied away from using its own maritime dispute with Bangladesh, which it successfully resolved through international arbitration, as an example worth following in the region.

According to the joint statement, the Philippines recognized the steps taken by India to solve its maritime boundary with Bangladesh , through arbitration at the Permanent Court of Arbitration, and its acceptance of the ruling as an example of peaceful resolution of disputes in accordance with universally recognized principles of international law, including the 1982 UNCLOS by the International Court.

Like much of the international community, the Philippines believes that China's activities in South China Sea violate 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). China though believes UNCLOS is not applicable to the South China Sea disputes even though it uses the same to lay claims over Senkaku or Diaoyu islands in East China Sea.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 15 Oct 2015 16:10

India, US, Japan 'indispensable' partners for regional stability - PTI, Economic Times
CHENNAI: Navies of India, US and Japan today placed great importance on the ongoing trilateral naval exercise MALABAR-2015, with a top Japanese official describing the three countries as "indispensable partners" for regional stability.

Addressing reporters on board INS Shivalik here, senior officials of the three navies concurred that the initiative will help increase inter-operability between them against the backdrop of regional maritime peace.

Vice-Admiral B K Verma of the Indian Navy said the initiative will help increase inter-operability among the three participating navies.

"Learning doctrinal and operational aspects will go a long way in inter-operability," he said adding personnel from either side could benefit from exchange of ideas to explore implementing them in their respective countries.

Vice Admiral of Japanese Maritime Self-Defence Force (JMSDF) Y Murakawa appreciated the Indian navy for inviting his country to participate in the event, which has been on between India and US since 1992.

Japan is taking part in the exercise for the fourth time.

"We are very proud that three navies are further able to improve cooperation...the three navies are indispensable partners for regional stability," he said.

Vice Admiral J P Aucoin of the US Navy said his country had been partnering with India in the Malabar series of exercises since 1992, adding the two shared the common interest of a "stable economic environment" in the region.
He also commended his Japanese counterparts for their "high standards" of professional capabilities and looked forward to their participation in the future, too.

The three officials reiterated their navies' commitment to ensure free, open and peaceful maritime commerce in the Indo-Pacific region.

During the exercise, the Indian navy will be represented by INS Shivalik and INS Betwa, both indigenous frigates, guided missile destroyer INS Ranvijay and Fleet support ship INS Shakti.

Submarine INS Sindhudhvaj, Long Range Maritime aircraft P81 and integral rotary wing helicopters will also be part of the exercise which began yesterday.

The US Navy, for its part, will see ships from Carrier Task Force (CTF) 70 of the USN 7th Fleet, based in Japan, sail the waters along with Indian and Japanese vessels.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby member_19686 » 17 Oct 2015 20:31

Taiwan's Ruling Nationalists Dump Presidential Candidate
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESSOCT. 17, 2015, 8:18 A.M. E.D.T.

TAIPEI, Taiwan — Taiwan's ruling Nationalist Party dumped its unpopular presidential candidate on Saturday, in hopes that her replacement will revive the party's fortunes three months before an election that the pro-independence opposition is heavily favored to win.

Delegates at an extraordinary party congress voted overwhelmingly to nullify Hung Hsiu-chu's nomination and selected party Chairman Eric Chu to lead the ticket in the Jan. 16 election.


Chu, the mayor of suburban New Taipei City and a former accounting professor, had earlier declined to seek the nomination. But upon accepting it on Saturday, he said the election was too important not to step in.

"The presidential and legislative elections are polls to determine the nation's future, to determine the future polices of the nation," Chu said.

Hung had resisted stepping down as the party's candidate, but said she accepted the decision and would remain loyal to the party.

The Nationalists have lost favor over their pro-China policies, and Hung was running about 20 percentage points behind Democratic Progressive Party candidate Tsai Ing-wen, who advocates greater caution in relations with Beijing.

While the presidency remains in doubt, a more popular candidate could help the Nationalists retain their majority in Taiwan's 113-seat parliament.

Hung's nomination in July set up Taiwan's first presidential race between female candidates from the two major parties.

However, the veteran legislator and former teacher was seen as lacking in executive experience and had focused much of her campaign on the party's already embattled China policy. Chu is seen as relatively more moderate on cross-Taiwan Strait relations while maintaining friendly ties with the mainland's ruling Communist Party.

A win for Tsai would throw up new questions about Taiwan's relations with Beijing, which claims the island as its own territory to be reunited with the mainland, by force if necessary. Despite that threat, China is now Taiwan's biggest trading partner and a growing source of tourism and investment.

Talks between the sides have been based on the Nationalists' acceding to Beijing's demand that Taiwan and China be seen as part of the same country, something the DPP has refused to do.

While the DPP officially advocates Taiwan's formal split from China, it has pledged to adhere to the will of the majority of Taiwanese, who favor maintaining the status quo of de facto independence.


China took a hard line against the last DPP president, Chen Shui-bian, who served from 2000 to 2008. Its approach softened radically under current Nationalist President Ma Ying-jeou, who is constitutionally barred from seeking a third four-year term.

Ma's government signed 23 agreements with China to promote investment, tourism and trade, helping to reduce tensions between the sides to their lowest level in more than six decades.

Although welcomed by the business community, the agreements incurred a backlash from younger Taiwanese. Tens of thousands protested in Taipei last year against the deals, saying they'd been rushed through without adequate consultation.


Along with harming their economic prospects, the deals were opposed out of fear they will eventually give China political control over the island.

A former Japanese colony, Taiwan split from the mainland in 1949 when the Nationalists, led by Chiang Kai-sheck, moved their government here following defeat to Mao Zedong's Communists in the Chinese civil war.

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2015/10 ... itics.html

NRao
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby NRao » 17 Oct 2015 20:41

SSridhar,

You need to start your own thread with no discussions. Makes life so much easier.

Good finds and thx.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Paul » 19 Oct 2015 11:42

X-post

Wrt to the proposed 300K PLA cutback and USN foray into SCS

If I were Xi I would use this opportunity to make my point that China needs to spend more on Navy and cut army expenditure. This could be a +ve for India and give it 10-15 yrs for defence modernization

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Philip » 19 Oct 2015 12:37

Indo-China Sea please! In the Indo-China Sea,China has NO legitimate right to claim the waters/territory under any international law/agreement,and thus it is open season for anyone to shaft the PRC up its nether end.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldne ... aters.html

China blinks.See how China's bluff and bluster gets pricked when someone draws the line.
China offers to hold naval drills with South Asia rivals in disputed waters

China says it is willing to carry out joint naval drills with its rivals in the disputed South China Sea, as the US threatens to send warships into waters claimed by Beijing


However,there is a warning too.
Richard Bitzinger, a military expert at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, said “cooperative training” was common, even among “countries who are not always friendly with each other”.

“But the timing does suggest that the Chinese are trying to do some fence-building, after engaging in a particularly long period of aggressive behaviour,” he added.

“This is actually typical for China: Do something particularly assertive, stand its ground, extend an olive branch, and then wait for the uproar to die down.


“In the end, the Chinese accomplish their objectives – the goalposts have effectively been moved.”


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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby MadhuG » 20 Oct 2015 02:36

China is the biggest threat to peace, security and environment right now. I am quite confident that the next major war will involve them if not started by them. Their leaders seem to think that fascist expansions are possible in the 21st century. It will eventually lead to their downfall and bring great hardship to their people.

The best solution to all the problems is if the Chinese people would overthrow the war mongering Communist Party and usher in democracy. Then we will have peace.

Until then, India should strive to build an excessive nuclear deterrence to assure the Chinese of an equal outcome. I don't think anything else would work.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 20 Oct 2015 18:30

The US Factor in Sino-Indian Relations: India's Fine Balancing - R.N.Das, IDSA Monograph Series
In the narrative of India-China-US triangular relations, the United States occupies some degree of strategic space notwithstanding the fact that Sino-Indian relations, like Sino-US relations, or for that matter, Indo-US relations have their own dynamics and imperatives. The monograph seeks to determine the extent to which the US is a factor as an intervening variable in the complex relationship between the two countries. The study attempts to probe the research question as to how China perceives U.S policy towards India in particular, and whether growing Indo-US ties can affect China's security interest negatively. Related to this research question is how India is trying to calibrate its relationship with both USA and China, and how far India has been successful in this endeavour in the context of strategic distrust and security dilemma between both the countries.


I am yet to read this.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 21 Oct 2015 15:12

‘Communist Party of China values ties with CPI(M)’ - Atul Aneja, The Hindu
China has signalled that it is according top priority to its engagement with the Indian Left parties, after Sitaram Yechury, the CPI(M) general secretary, called on President Xi Jinping and Vice-President Li Yuanchao.

Mr. Yechury, who was in the Chinese capital to participate in an international conference of Asian political parties, met Mr. Xi last Thursday.

In a conversation with The Hindu , following the meeting, Mr. Yechury said that Mr. Xi conveyed to him that the Communist Party of China (CPC) highly valued its relations with the CPI(M). Mr. Xi added that the CPI(M) was a strong votary for driving the relationship between China and India, including people-to-people ties.

Mr. Yechury said his conversation with Mr. Li Yuanchao focused on the ongoing economic transition in China. Mr. Li pointed out that the CPC was developing ties with all Indian political parties, including the CPI(M).

Highly placed sources told The Hindu that the Chinese Vice-President, without mentioning Pakistan, told Mr. Yechury that Beijing’s ties with other countries would not stand in the way of the development of Sino-Indian ties.

Mr. Li is expected to visit India next month at the invitation of Vice-President Mohammad Hamid Ansari.

At the International Conference of Asian Political Parties (ICAPP), which had China’s Silk Road connectivity projects as its core theme, Mr. Yechury had advocated convergence between China’s Maritime Silk Road (MSR) concept and India’s Maritime Spice Route. He stressed that China’s “one belt one road” concept, of which the MSR is a part, cannot “comprehensively realise the inherent potential of the region unless the Maritime Spice Route is simultaneously revived.”

During his intervention, he had also counselled a visiting Pakistani delegation led by the chairman of the Pakistan Peoples Party, Bilawal Bhutto, to refrain from internationalising the Kashmir issue at the conference.

I may be bigotted, but I look at the Indian communists with disdain and contempt. How would Yechury explain his close contacts with an enemy country's political party? Advising Pakistan is fine, but I want to know about what Yechury told Mr. XI & Mr. Li about the India-China border dispute or China continuing to use Pakistan as a proxy against India or China acting as a stumbling block for India in the UNSC or NSG, or dams on the Brahmaputra or limiting access to the Chinese market by Indian businesses etc? So long as CPI(M) does nor articulate its position on these matters or come candid on the Yechury-Xi/Li confabulations, one cannot but look at CPI(M) with suspicion. Their history is such.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Yagnasri » 21 Oct 2015 15:19

Is there anything new here? Both communist parties are basically gang of traitors openly working for other nations. Chairman Mao is our chairman was the slogan of CPM even during Indo China war. CPI on the other hand was jumping to Soviet tune.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Austin » 22 Oct 2015 16:34


panduranghari
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby panduranghari » 22 Oct 2015 16:58

Edward Luttwak gives a good overview. Apologies if posted before.

How to improve co-operation between India-Vietnam-Japan-Phillipines? Easy let China start needling all. The others dont reason to gang up on China in the near future.



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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 23 Oct 2015 08:25

Spy cam project fails to click - Vijaita Singh, The Hindu
An ambitious project of the government to install high-resolution surveillance cameras along the China border has run into rough weather.

A pilot project undertaken in 2013 to monitor the movement along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) has failed to give the desired results and the government is now rethinking its strategy. China has a robust surveillance system on its side.

In the wake of the 21-day face-off with the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) of China at Depsang Valley in the Ladakh region in 2013, the government had given the go-ahead to install surveillance cameras along the unmanned pockets on the China border.

It was decided that the cameras would be put up at 50 locations in Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Sikkim and Tawang in Arunachal Pradesh.

The cameras were to relay live-feed in a 20-25 km range to help the security personnel deployed there to plan patrolling in vulnerable areas more effectively. The camera was installed at the Thakung post of the Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) near Pangong Lake, at an altitude of 14,500 feet.

“The pilot project was taken up at Thakung post, which is a high-altitude terrain. The weather is not favourable there as high-velocity winds and frost tend to blur the images. We had planned to link it to the Delhi headquarters, but it has not been possible to link it even with the battalion headquarters in Leh,” said a senior government official.

The official said they were looking at better technology now. “While the Chinese have put up a well-knit surveillance network on their side, we don’t have any such arrangements on our side. This project was essential to build up our own intelligence network,” said another government official.

The Indian Army, which is the second line of defence along the China border, does its own surveillance with the help of unmanned aerial vehicles but this also has its limitations.

“This system would have given us time to analyse the recordings. We decided to test the product of a particular service provider, but now we plan to open the floodgates to multiple vendors,” said the official.

Thakung is a post most prone to Chinese transgressions.

“Somehow, the Chinese know the exact movement of our troops. Whenever our men go for patrolling along the border, the Chinese come to know about it. Apart from human intelligence, we don’t have much electronic evidence to aid our patrolling,” said the official.

India has always maintained that incidents of transgressions occur due to difference in perception regarding the border. After the NDA government came to power, the frequency of patrolling along the China border has increased.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Prem » 24 Oct 2015 05:34

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/6e098274-587a ... agreatgame
China’s Great Game: Road to a new empire
According to former officials, the grand vision for a new Silk Road began life modestly in the bowels of China’s commerce ministry. Seeking a way to deal with serious overcapacity in the steel and manufacturing sectors, commerce officials began to hatch a plan to export more. In 2013, the programme received its first top-level endorsement when Mr Xi announced the “New Silk Road” during a visit to Kazakhstan. Since the president devoted a second major speech to the plan in March — as concerns over the economic slowdown mounted — it has snowballed into a significant policy and acquired a clunkier name: “One Belt, One Road”. The belt refers to the land trade route linking central Asia, Russia and Europe. The road, oddly, is a reference to a maritime route via the western Pacific and Indian Ocean.
Port construction in countries like Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Pakistan has led some analysts to question whether China’s ultimate aim is dual-use naval logistics facilities that could be put into service controlling sea lanes, a strategy dubbed the “String of Pearls”.Achieving the trust of wary neighbours including Vietnam, Russia and India is not a given, and is consistently being undermined by sustained muscle flexing by China elsewhere. In the South China Sea, for example, naval confrontations have increased in the face of aggressive maritime claims by Beijing. High quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. construction growth is slowing and China doesn’t need to build many new expressways, railways and ports, so they have to find other countries that do,” says Tom Miller of Beijing consultancy Gavekal Dragonomics. “One of the clear objectives is to get more contracts for Chinese construction companies overseasHigh quality global journalism requires investment. Please share this article with others using the link below, do not cut & paste the article. See our Ts&Cs and Copyright Policy for more detail.
If this approach does not work, China will be faced with some grim alternatives — either turn tail and leave, or risk getting bogged down in security commitments and local politics. It has made clear that it does not want to replace the US in Afghanistan nor does it see itself as a regional policeman. “China will not fall into the same mistakes,” says Jia Jinjing, a specialist on south Asia at Beijing’s Renmin University.Economic development, strategists in Beijing argue, will remove the appeal of radical Islam in China and Pakistan, Afghanistan and central Asia. But critics note that culturally insensitive policies, an enormous security presence and economic strategies that benefit Chinese communities at the expense of locals have so far only escalated tensions in Xinjiang, the desert region that has 22 per cent of China’s domestic oil reserves and 40 per cent of its coal deposits.


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