Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

All threads that are locked or marked for deletion will be moved to this forum. The topics will be cleared from this archive on the 1st and 16th of each month.
GShankar
BRFite
Posts: 868
Joined: 16 Sep 2016 20:20

Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby GShankar » 17 Oct 2016 04:17

Austin wrote:
SSridhar wrote:I agree.

But, we should continue the efforts for several reasons until he is either eliminated through Special Ops or is detained and brought to India, because:

  • That's the right thing to do, especially when Masood Azhar is a great admirer of OBL, was a member of OBL's IIF (Islamic International Front for Jihad Against the Crusaders and the Jewish People) and arranged for the killing of 18 American soldiers in Somalia in c. 1993. His elaborate confession lies with the Indian police when he was detained here. The UNSC 1267 list is meant especially for Al Qaeda sympathizers and he deserves to be there especially when his organization is already under sanctions under the same provision.
  • We must bring as much discredit to Pakistan internationally as possible and Maulana Masood Azhar, as a big fish, eminently fits that bill.
  • We never know when his name, under the 1267 list, would be beneficial to us in the future.He needs to be brought back to India to face trial on three cases, at least, AFAIK. One, travelling to India under a false passport for which he was originally detained, Two, for organizing an armed resistance to India in Kashmir. Three, for organizing his escape through international terrorism, hijack and killing of an Indian citizen (Rupin Katyal)
  • We must never let go of an opportunity to pile up pressure on Pakistan. We have been at Masood Azhar since c. 2008 and China is the only stumbling block since then.
  • Masood Azhar's case gives us an opportunity to expose the duplicity of the Chinese as well


Look all that is fine , bring pressure on Pakistan is OK.

I am looking at practical result since 1992 Mumbai blast , we could not bring any single accused from Pakistan to justice there were many acts of terrorism between then and till date both on civilians and army in India in Mumbai Delhi etc and in valley.

The only one I recollect that ever came back is Yakub Menon and we know from his own court statement he came on his own accord out of his own conscious

All this let me put a ban on this guy or that guy has produced zero results other then some talking point over chai biscuit. The guys organisation is already under UN ban and by association the person who heads it.

Let's us be practical and put effort where it can give result rather then do something for chai pe charcha.

Let's take out dawood , mazoor , Hafiz and all these folks in Pakistan via special ops , these guys roam around and according to India's own admission some of the address are known.

Let's get out of this childish rant to ban this or that via UN or US or EU , these folks don't get impacted by such verbal toilet paper value thing but let's be pro- active and hunt them in their own backyard

Look even OBL was banned under UN but till US went inside Pakistan and took him out there was no way he was affected or was Pakistan , infact Pakistan did not face any ban from US inspite of the fact he was caught near Rawalpindi with his pants down , let's not be navieve about such things


What you are suggesting is almost like the "juice" mose-ad model. To scale to the level of unkil, we need lot more resources than what we have now.

However we need to continue demonstrating to the rest of the world the silliness that is called as paki and cheeni foreign policy.

And continue to conduct all necessary surgeries as possible in the future. I don't think India will create a hit squad and let it free in Dubai, pakistan, etc.

SSridhar
Forum Moderator
Posts: 22776
Joined: 05 May 2001 11:31
Location: Chennai

Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 17 Oct 2016 09:26

Continuing from the "Tracking India's Admission .. ." thread . . .

svinayak wrote:This is a competition between China and USA
China is taking a punishing attitude because USA is supporting India in the international forums and for UNSC

China by opposing Indian demands is delaying the India USA strategic alliance in the international scene
By Opposing India , China is opposing US and Its global super power influence

Earlier USA and China were together in supporting the Pak jehad organization. Now China is the one supporting Pak Jehad,


I partially agree.

My only contention is that while going by the narrative of US-China antagonism and India being 'punished' by China in the process, we should not dismiss the underlying unremitting hostility by the Chinese towards us.

Since the mid-1950s, China began to treat India as an enemy. It took us until 1962 to understand that change. Even when Nehru was following his non-alignment, China accused us of being a stooge and a running dog of the Western Imperialists. China itself became aligned with the same Imperialists in the 70s in order to wipe out the Soviet threat. Then, they embarked on a project to become very powerful, both economically and militarily. Then, the quest to dislodge the Americans and assume the No. 1 spot.

But, during all this time and even when they were in bed with the Americans during the 70s and 80s, their antagonism towards India never changed. This is clearly brought out by that Nixon/Kissinger - Mao/Zhou discussion disparaging India. While the US-India relationship, which had also remained fraught since our Independence (though, of course, there are no border disputes etc), changed gradually and significantly, the Chinese were never interested in mending fences with us. They were disinterested or extremely slow and reluctant in responding to Indian overtures during this period. From c. 1967, Mrs. Gandhi tried to change the India-China dynamic, but her efforts to restore diplomatic links could fructify only in c. 1976. Vajpayee's visit to China in c. 1979 did not lead to any breakthrough. In fact, with Vajpayee in Beijing, China launched an offensive to 'teach a lesson' to Vietnam resorting to the same phraseology that it used against us in 1962. It was the Rajiv Gandhi's visit in c. 1988 that led to some change. But, not until the mid-1990s, when China sensed a huge market, did it make *some* concilliatory moves.

But, it was in this period that China had already started the nuclear & missile proliferation to Pakistan with the active connivance of the US. This fact alone, that of nuclear-targetting India through Pakistani proxy with the support of the US, proves the extent of hostility by China against India. China funded, armed, trained, protected and encouraged all the insurgencies in our North East. Paresh Barua of ULFA is still living in Ruili in Yunnan. The NSCN(K) attack on 6 Dogras last year was egged on by the PLA, officially. It is very clear that the Chinese were (and have been) not merely disinterested in maintaining a good relationship with us but were (and are) actively pursuing a policy of containment and sabotage against us.

This Chinese policy of containment and sabotage has acquired multiple dimensions today, from shadowing Indian naval assets in Indo-China Sea, to blocking India's legitimate entry into international fora commensurate with India's standing, to go on a limb to even support a world-renowned terrorist Masood Azhar etc.

IMO, therefore, though there is a huge strand of US-China tension that contributes to problems in India-China relationship, there should be no ambiguity about an entrenched, deep-rooted Chinese hostility towards us that cannot be wished away. China looks at us as an enemy which should be dealt with across the entire spectrum by all means available.

SSridhar
Forum Moderator
Posts: 22776
Joined: 05 May 2001 11:31
Location: Chennai

Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 17 Oct 2016 18:25

Chinese support for 'selective terrorism' continues and its support for the 'all-weather friend' shines through. It is a kind of egg-or-chic first' between China & Pakistan now, Chin-Pak. Do we need to tackle China first in order to take care of Pakistan or do we tackle Pakistan first to defang China? IMO, as tackling China is beyond our means at present, we need to dismantle Pakistan first.

China defends Pakistan after PM Modi's 'mothership' of terror remark - PTI
A day after Prime Minister Narendra Modi called Pakistan a "mothership of terrorism"+ , China on Monday strongly defended its all-weather ally, saying it is against linking any country or religion with terror and asked the world community to acknowledge Pakistan's "great sacrifices".

In a sharp reaction to a question about Modi's characterisation of Pakistan at the BRICS Summit in Goa+ , spokesperson of the Chinese foreign ministry Hua Chunying said China is opposed to linking any country to terrorism.

Answering a question on Modi's criticism of Islamabad in aiding and abetting terror groups opposed to India, she said "on counter-terrorism, China's position is consistent".

"It is the same way we oppose linking terrorism with any specific country or religion," she said.

"We oppose terrorism in all forms {She missed out on the exact phraseology, 'in all its forms and manifestations'. Everybody mouths it and nobody means it.} and we believe that international concerted efforts are needed to ensure stability and security of all countries," she said.

"We oppose linking terrorism with any specific ethnicity or religion. This is our long-standing position. China and Pakistan are all-weather friends.

Noting that India and Pakistan are "all victims of terrorism", she said Islamabad has made "great sacrifice to combat terrorism and this needs to be recognised by the international community". {Pakistan has been successfully able to push this line, thanks to the support from the US and China}

To another question about Modi's criticism that Pakistan state continues to support anti-India terrorist groups+ giving them arms, financial support and helping them to cross the border to carry out attacks in India and whether it is China's view that international community should not take a stand on Islamabad's support to terrorists, Hu said: "I understand your concern."

"But, as I said on counter-terrorism China's position is consistent. It is the same way we oppose linking terrorism with specific country or religion,"
:D she said.

"As per the problem between India and Pakistan, both the two countries are close neighbours of China. We truly hope that they can resolve these differences in a peaceful way through dialogue and consultation, so that India and Pakistan relations can develop. This serves the interest of the two countries and the region," she said.

SSridhar
Forum Moderator
Posts: 22776
Joined: 05 May 2001 11:31
Location: Chennai

Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 18 Oct 2016 11:34

In the Goa BRICS Joint Statement, I came across this:

We reiterate that outer space shall be free for peaceful exploration and use by all States on the basis of equality in accordance with international law. Reaffirming that outer space shall remain free from any kind of weapons or any use of force, we stress that negotiations for the conclusion of an international agreement or agreements to prevent an arms race in outer space are a priority task of the United Nations Conference on Disarmament, and support the efforts to start substantive work, inter alia, based on the updated draft treaty on the prevention of the placement of weapons in outer space and of the threat or use of force against outer space objects submitted by China and Russian Federation. We also note an international initiative for a political obligation on the no first placement of weapons in outer space.


Look who is talking about "the threat or use of force against outer space objects", China.

China did two ASAT (Anti-Satellite) tests, one in 2007 and the other in 2014. And, generated a lot of space debris. But, beyond that, it is incrementally adding to its space-weapons capabilities.

Various PLA officers and PRC defence analysts have justified China’s ASAT requirements. During 60th anniversary of PLAAF, its former commander Xu Qiuling stated that it will develop force projection ability to outer space too and that only power can protect peace. On January 5, 2013, China’s state-run Global Times said in an editorial, “China should continue substantive research on striking satellites. In the foreseeable future, gap between China and the US cannot be eliminated by China's development of space weapons. The US advantage is overwhelming. Before strategic uncertainties between China and the US can disappear, China urgently needs to have an outer space trump card. China’s public policy is peaceful use of space, which is also China's real desire.". Look at the supposedly disarming, glib talk that the Chinese always employ while doing just the opposite. OTOH, the Editorial advises space weapons while on the other hand, it claims 'peaceful intentions of China'. Like it claims it has a consistent, zero-tolerance anti terrorism policy but has vetoes Masood Azhar's case every time since 2008. It tried its best not to include Hafeez Saeed to under 1267 List. Before the Goa meet, China's MEA said, "On counter-terrorism, it is an important area for cooperation among BRICS members for political security. Cooperation on this front will enhance BRICS communication and coordination and will contribute to world peace and security. That is quite obvious." In the Goa meet, it prevented India from targetting LeT & JeM.

In c. 2010, PRC conducted a missile test using its ASAT capabilities. This flies in the face of China’s support for PPWT (Prevention of the Placement of Weapons in Outer Space and the Threat or Use of Force against Outer Space Objects) which it has officially endorsed in a white paper on national defense titled China’s National Defense in 2010 on March 21, 2011. It said in that white paper “ . . .the Chinese government has advocated from the outset the peaceful use of outer space, and opposes any weaponization of outer space and any arms race in outer space.” Thus, PRC’s approach is to conclude the PPWT thereby denying any advantage to potential adversaries like India which have not started their activities in this sphere while pursuing its own goals in space weapons and build infrastructure before the Treaty comes into effect. It is pursuing this goal with Russia. In fact, immediately after the ASAT event, China also conducted an anti-missile test in which an incoming missile was intercepted by a DF-21 at an altitude of 700 Kms, thus displaying significant BMD capabilities.

Between June-August 2010, the Chinese Space agency also conducted a series of “rendezvous and proximity operations (RPO)” involving two ELINT gathering polar sun-synchronous-orbit satellites at an altitude of 600 Kms. Such an on-orbit satellite inspection capability raised further fears of an ASAT weapon in development by the Chinese.

svinayak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14223
Joined: 09 Feb 1999 12:31

Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby svinayak » 18 Oct 2016 12:32

SSridhar wrote:Continuing from the "Tracking India's Admission .. ." thread . . .


My only contention is that while going by the narrative of US-China antagonism and India being 'punished' by China in the process, we should not dismiss the underlying unremitting hostility by the Chinese towards us.

Since the mid-1950s, China began to treat India as an enemy. It took us until 1962 to understand that change. Even when Nehru was following his non-alignment, China accused us of being a stooge and a running dog of the Western Imperialists. China itself became aligned with the same Imperialists in the 70s in order to wipe out the Soviet threat. Then, they embarked on a project to become very powerful, both economically and militarily. Then, the quest to dislodge the Americans and assume the No. 1 spot.


svinayak wrote:India has to have a strategy of doubling trade with CHINA as China strategy at policy. CHINA knows that India will grow and will go close to US

India should give the freedom to Indian people to decide if India wants to buy China product.

Indian people should veto based on China reducing terrorist support to Pakistan


Last edited by svinayak on 18 Oct 2016 14:11, edited 1 time in total.

IndraD
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6719
Joined: 26 Dec 2008 15:38
Location: भारत का निश्चेत गगन

Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby IndraD » 18 Oct 2016 13:35

Image

http://www.samaa.tv/economy/2016/10/fir ... adar-port/

First Chinese ship docks at Gwadar. While West is busy & fixated with Sy , Cheena is rapidly colonising Pk. It will be interesting to watch how West (read US) will punish Pk. Or Pk will display amazing capability to be in bed with Cheena & US at same time? :eek:

Bhurishravas
BRFite
Posts: 680
Joined: 02 Sep 2016 18:25

Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Bhurishravas » 18 Oct 2016 18:25

http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2016- ... 726387.htm
This article states that the water of Brahmputra river will be used for irrigation.
Its reservoir was designed to store up to 295 million cubic meters of water and help irrigate 30,000 hectares of farmland.
The farming area, which usually suffers from severe drought, is a major crop production base in Xigaze.


This is supposed to be a run of the river project. Can its water be used for irrigation?!

kit
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2570
Joined: 13 Jul 2006 18:16

Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby kit » 18 Oct 2016 18:43

to understand the chinese psycology : If they want something they will do it / try doing it and brand themselves as the subjugator and accuse the other one of doing the same thing they are doing . This way they try to eat the cake and have it as well .
examples : south china sea ; POK ; North Korea ; almost all trade deals

oh wait didnt they accuse India of trade protectionism ? :mrgreen:

Chandragupta
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3469
Joined: 07 Dec 2008 15:26
Location: Kingdom of My Fair Lady

Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Chandragupta » 19 Oct 2016 00:24

x-posting from STFUP thread.

TKiran wrote:Baluchistan case may be weak as even Tibet armed resistance withered away, we lost Tibet card in 2003 when vajpayee accepted Tibet as integral part of China.

Only card we have is PoK, and like OBOR, we should take initiative to connect to Afghanistan via PoK by liberating it and collecting toll for any trade between China and Pakistan. Still Gwadar is lost to China. They have a naval base there, even without CPEC


Just because Vajpayee threw away Tibet doesn't mean we can't reignite it. Issue is can we ignite it and whether the Tibetans have a stomach for a fight? And whether we are prepared to lose Indian lives to get Tibetan independence.

TKiran
BRFite
Posts: 836
Joined: 13 Dec 2009 00:22

Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby TKiran » 19 Oct 2016 01:25

^^^^^chandraguptaji, total Tibetan population is not even 5 million and Tibet is as big in area as that of India. Tibetans are no match for 1200 million Hans, that was the point I was actually trying to make. The same with Baluchistan. Yeah it definitely is a morally good stand to supporting Baluchistan or Tibet, but it would be only a miracle if ever these people get Independence. Of course if China breaks down like USSR, it's possible, but such break down I can't see in the horizon.

In panchatantra, Vishnu sharma explains that the neighbor should keep on needling the other powerful neighbor till the powerful neighbor comes for "sandhi". We are unable to needle the Hans as they have Tibet as buffer.

Many analysts suggest that Chinese don't have any friends, but I see differently. Chinese don't have any enemies who can needle them truly in the heart of han land. They have buffer zone all around them.

ETIM terrorists may be not more than 500 that too living as expatriates. They are also very few in population for as much of land mass as India. So there is no threat to them.

Even economic threats are also exaggerated as they have attained depths into economy.

Their only vulnerability is that the entire Han population is deracinated. If some how we can make CPC loose grip like some introduction of Perestroika the entire China would collapse.

Actually we should not have abandoned the Tibet card and kept on at least a claim to Tibet as greater India. That was gigantic blunder. Religion has no meaning for Hans so somebody has suggested that religion is their vulnerability, I don't agree with that point.

I still grudgingly accept the technics used by mushrat when he nearly solved the problem of Kashmir in Paki's favor. Chinese solved their Indian problem for ever by occupying Tibet. Both Paki's and Hans used "panchatantra" technics perfectly against us.

Prem
BRF Oldie
Posts: 20830
Joined: 01 Jul 1999 11:31
Location: Weighing and Waiting 8T Yconomy

Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Prem » 20 Oct 2016 05:23

In a first, India and China hold joint Army exercise in J&K

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... paign=show

NEW DELHI: In a first, India and China on Wednesday carried out a joint army exercise in eastern Ladakh in Jammu and Kashmir, a move that comes amid hectic diplomatic manoeuvring between the two countries over a host of issues like Nuclear Suppliers Group+ and designation of Masood Azhar as a terrorist by the UN+ .During the day long exercise on Humanitarian Aid and Disaster Relief (HADR) a fictitious situation of earthquake striking an Indian Border village was painted. Thereafter joint teams carried out rescue operations, evacuation and rendering of medical assistance.
This was done as a sequel to the first Joint Exerc
ise held on February 6 in the area of Border Personnel Meeting Hut at Chushul Garrison of Eastern Ladakh, along with Chinese troops of Moldo Garrison.Sources said that in February, the exercise was held in the Chinese side and this time in the Indian side along the line of Actual Control.The Indian team for the exercise was led by Brigadier R S Raman and that of the Chinese was led by Sr Col Fan Jun.The exercise was a great success and has not only refined the drills to provide succour to the border population in case of natural calamity but has also increased the level of trust and cooperation between the two border guarding forces along the LAC in Eastern Ladakh, the Army said in a statement here.

Guddu
BRFite
Posts: 834
Joined: 01 Dec 2008 06:22

Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Guddu » 20 Oct 2016 05:43

What is the benefit of these military exercises with China ?

Prem
BRF Oldie
Posts: 20830
Joined: 01 Jul 1999 11:31
Location: Weighing and Waiting 8T Yconomy

Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Prem » 20 Oct 2016 08:24

China's Great Stagnation
http://www.aei.org/spotlight/china-stagnation/
( China's decade coming to end soon)

China's economy is stalling. The most likely economic scenario over the course of the next decade is not high growth or an economic collapse, but stagnation. If this occurs, the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) will have difficulty sustaining its ambitious national development and strategic plans. In particular, Beijing will not be able to avoid a more serious "guns v. butter" tradeoff.This has sharp implications for American policy. Most importantly, while the US certainly has its own structural problems, it is far wealthier and more powerful than China, and that gap may actually grow or at least hold, rather than shrink. The dominant Sino-US relations paradigm of a declining power managing a rising power is inaccurate. A truer depiction of the Sino-American relationship is that China is a capable great power seeking to compete with US primacy in Asia, much as Russia has become a US rival in Europe and the Middle East, while Iran challenges American interests in the Persian Gulf. To attribute to China the capability to "overtake" the US or compete with it globally—or to describe the power dynamics as a "power transition" from Washington to Beijing—is at best premature.
To understand why stagnation is likely, first consider other countries. While the categories are not well-defined, far more economies rise out of poverty than become truly rich. This is sometimes referred to as the middle-income trap.In the postwar era, the most impressive economic success stories are in East Asia, which bodes well. However, in comparison with the world as a whole, ]. Only one country with a population over 30 million has become rich for the first time in the postwar era: South Korea. A long list of countries that have not gone beyond middle-income, from Argentina to Thailand. It would not be surprising if Chinese cities the size of Singapore had income levels similar to France. I[/b]t would be astonishing for the PRC as a whole to match French income, much more astonishing than what it has accomplished to date.. In terms of what people actually have in their pockets, China reported disposable income per person equivalent to $3,400 at the end of 2015, less than one-tenth of the US.. The PRC's economic weakness did not appear in 2015, as some seem to think. It did even not begin with the 2008 financial crisis. It began in 2003. From 1978 to 2002, several waves of partial pro-market reform created a new economic powerhouse. In 2003, the new government under Hu Jintao decided state-owned banks lending to state-owned enterprises (SOEs) should continue to constitute the core of the economy, employing large numbers of people and otherwise serving the party's aims. Fresh market-oriented reforms were soon displaced by soaring publicly directed investment. After a four-year boom, the economy began to hiccup. It was no longer greater productivity from market reform driving the numbers but increasing dependence on foreign consumption to buy the goods ultimately produced.The global financial crisis was a double blow. Foreign demand plummeted. And on top of the previous public investment surge, Beijing conducted arguably history's biggest stimulus through state-run banks. Loans grew 32 percent in 2009 alone, even as profit opportunities vanished. At this point the stagnation path became clearly visible.The PRC's national debt is in excess of $25 trillion and climbing. Roughly two-thirds has been accumulated in the past nine years.[b] In 2015, total debt rose four times as fast as nominal GDP, mocking the idea that China continues to enjoy comparatively rapid economic growth. When a country has already spent so much, the return on yet more spending is low. This is the main reason growth has slowed. A re[/b]lated point is that, when a country's debt is so large, a large amount of capital is spent paying it back. This is the main reason growth will slow further.

Demography also portends stagnation. Demography can cause social and political crisis when there are too many young people and not enough jobs. China is instead rapidly aging (by demographic standards), heading toward a situation of hundreds of millions of elderly requiring support and not enough workers to support them and expand economic activity.The government reports the number of working-age people started to inch downward in 2012 and has fallen progressively more sharply each year through 2015. These numbers may not be entirely accurate, but the work force will certainly shrink before this decade ends and continue to shrink throughout the next decade. The contribution of labor to growth will fade until labor actually detracts from growth, as it does in Japan and parts of Europe. Older countries tend to stagnate.
In addition, growth based on natural resources has disappeared. In the 1980s, farm productivity soared, permitting those who had become unnecessary farmers to become manufacturing workers and helping create the world's new factory. Land and natural resources will not spur economic growth again for the foreseeable future because the PRC has significantly depleted its resource endowment.. The World Bank cites water stress starting at 1,000 cubic meters of water per person per year; northern China offers one-fifth of that. Three-fifths of monitored national groundwater sites are rated by Beijing as unfit for drinking. Just as hefty payments are due on financial debt, they are also due on environmental debt, making growth even more difficult.Weakness in other sources of growth means increasing reliance on something that is hard to measure: innovation. The PRC has successfully imported foreign technology, legally and through the theft of intellectual property. As countries climb the technological ladder, however, they no longer benefit greatly from merely absorbing what others offer, and innovation becomes more challenging.The cost of ‘maintaining social stability' (weiwen), primarily through the police force, has become astonishingly high. The Chinese government's official budget for national defense in 2012 was 670.3 billion renminbi (about $109 billion), while the budget for police and public security was 701.8 billion renminbi (more than $114 billion).otwithstanding China's notorious budgetary opacity, there is reason to believe that maintaining a surveillance state costs as much as maintaining the People's Liberation Army.China, due to its historic one-child policy, has a fertility rate of 1.6 (below replacement levels) and a well-documented looming demographic cliff with its old-age dependency ratio set to increase to close to by almost 4x between 2010 and 2050. . . . Pension expenditure is already the single largest expense of the Chinese government, at US$200bn annually, higher than infrastructure, healthcare or defence, almost 20% of its total budget, (but still only totaling 2.7% of annual GDP), with coverage provided to less than half of the population above the age of sixty.These numbers will only rise.It seems almost unimaginable that it can sustain rapid growth in security spending as well. Xi's only political option given these circumstances is to create and sustain a new elite coalition around his nationalist program of "national rejuvenation" and the "China dream." Given slow economic growth and unfunded promises to seniors, Xi like Mao before him will have to ready his people for "sacrifices" in furtherance of China's return to greatness.

Even as he faces greater financial strain, thus far Xi's national security approach has been to centralize control over security policy, to expand internal security, and most importantly to continue with Hu's more muscular stand on territorial claims in the South and East China Seas. In addition to these efforts, Xi has also put forth an ambitious development and strategic plan called One Belt One Road (OBOR), in which China will create a network of infrastructure projects linking itself with over 60 Central Asian, Middle Eastern, and European countries.As Chinese entities went overseas to find resources, security leaders feared that the US and its allies could cut off supply in the event of a downturn in Sino-American relations. To expand its maritime presence, China has deployed a naval task force in the Gulf of Aden since 2008, developed military forces able to project power into both the South China Sea and Indian Ocean, and built diplomatic and military logistics relationships through port calls in the Persian Gulf and Africa. Plans are on track to build China's first overseas base in Djibouti, as well. Hu also began to press maritime claims in the East and South China seas and demonstrated a dangerous capability with a high-profile anti-satellite weapons test in 2007.If Beijing's maritime ambitions were not enough, Xi has also turned west with OBOR. The grandiose hope is to link Asia with Europe, a plan so ambitious it leaves Xi enough room for variegated assessments of success or failure. If OBOR is mostly a way to rid China of excess capacity and purchase more influence in neighboring countries, it may well "succeed." But if the strategy is meant to reshuffle Eurasian geopolitics by creating a "New Silk Road" linking East and West, with China at the heart, it will almost surely fail.
The risks of Xi's foreign policy approach are twofold. First, as Xi acquires a base in an unstable region, devotes more resources to Central Asia, and pushes contested maritime claims, the chances of a foreign policy failure have grown. China has little experience managing a high-stakes competition with a set of capable rivals such as the US and Japan, or countries willing to stand up to it under certain conditions such as Vietnam. Eventually, one of its rivals may push back hard (e.g., demonstrating that the militarized new "islands" are indefensible or placing US and allied exercises closer and closer to its shores), leaving Beijing with few palatable options. This scenario could be highly embarrassing to Xi who has cultivated a strong-man image. Part of the party's claim to the mandate of heaven is that it is reversing centuries of foreign humiliation. No CCP leader can be seen creating new humiliations.
A stagnating China's best analogue is not the stagnant Japan of the past two decades. Because of Beijing's geopolitical ambitions, the better comparison is to Putin's Russia, albeit with a much larger economy and thus more durable power. Despite already poor demographic conditions and a shrinking economy, Putin continues to exert Russian power abroad. He remains a popular leader and therefore can sustain these ambitions for a strategically relevant period of time. Similar to Russia, China is discontent with an American-dominated geopolitical order and has a strong sense that it should be the leading power in its region. Political power will likely remain centralized, and opposition will be put down ruthlessly. Xi will walk a tightrope on foreign policy adventurism. Right now his activities in the South China Sea serve both strategic goals and his nationalist domestic policy goals. The risk of this approach has been, and will remain, low as long as the US continues its tepid response. Going forward, he will calibrate assertiveness based on how much he needs to fuel nationalism and how great the strategic payoff China receives, measured against the risk of a real or perceived failure (e.g., the US effectively stops China from creating new manmade islands).
Another key source of American leverage is CCP insecurity. Xi needs to inspire nationalism and demonstrate that he is leading the process of national rejuvenation, but he cannot risk a foreign policy failure that would make him look weak at home. That means he will press on contentious issues until it becomes too risky to continue. For example, his South China Sea aggression has worked. He has paid no real cost and can credibly claim to his people that he is retaking lost territory and gaining control over China's historic seas. But if the US took action to stop China from dredging new "islands" in such places as the Scarborough Shoal, Xi would not have many responses. If the US began to convoy fishermen to waters they can legally fish, Xi would be left with a host of bad options. If the US began an active diplomatic initiative with maritime claimants in Southeast Asia to resolve conflicting issues of maritime rights and territories without China, Beijing would be isolated. These strategic initiatives should be accompanied by a renewed US informational campaign emphasizing how Xi is isolating China when there are many other options to integrate the country with the international community.

SSridhar
Forum Moderator
Posts: 22776
Joined: 05 May 2001 11:31
Location: Chennai

Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 20 Oct 2016 10:58

Guddu wrote:What is the benefit of these military exercises with China ?

IMO, nothing because when a disaster strikes neither army units would enter the others' areas to help, nor would that even be sought. But, mandarins probably believe that it increases familiarity with Chinese counterparts for the BSF, Army, ITBP et al, reduces tension and generally a part of CBM. We should not be lulled into any complacency here.

Philip
BRF Oldie
Posts: 19366
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: India

Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Philip » 20 Oct 2016 11:15

Yeah,a real "disaster" of an exercise! Pointless.

Look at how the dragon is baring its fangs and breating fire."India can only bark not bite".Let's make the boycott really work.

http://www.defencenews.in/article/India ... artnership
India can only 'BARK' about Trade Deficit :: China slams India-US Partnership

Wednesday, October 19, 2016
By: ET

The call for boycott of Chinese goods on Indian social media is "rabble rousing" as Indian products cannot compete with those of China, the state-owned media said on Wednesday.

In an acerbic op-ed, Global Times launched a blitzkrieg of sort against India, saying New Delhi can only "bark" and do nothing about the growing trade deficit between two countries.

China's continued opposition to India's effort to declare Pakistan-based militants as international terrorists has angered many Indians who have called for a boycott of Chinese products.

It described Prime Minster Narendra Modi's pet project "Make in India" as "impractical".

The daily warned Chinese companies not to invest in India as it would be "suicidal" to put money in a country where corruption is high and the workforce is not hard working.

"There has been a lot of talk recently in the Indian media as well as on social media about boycotting Chinese products. It's just rabble rousing," it said.

"Indian manufacturing cannot compete at all with Chinese products, for various reasons."

The daily said that India was to yet build roads and highways and had chronic shortage of power and water supply.
"Worst of all, corruption is highly prevalent from top to bottom in every single government department."
It slammed India for courting the US.

"The US is no one's friend. The Americans are just indulging India in order to contain China, as the US is jealous of China's development and global power.

"India has enough money but the majority of it is concentrated with politicians, bureaucrats and a few crony capitalists. Indian elites don't want to spend funds available in the country, which in reality is the taxpayers' money but is utilized by the Indian establishment for its own personal consumption.

"Because of this, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has started impractical schemes like 'Make in India'. The reason is that the Indian establishment wants foreign companies to invest in the country.

"It would be completely suicidal for Chinese companies to put their money in India by starting manufacturing projects there. The labour class in India is not very hard working or efficient," it argued.

The daily said that instead of opening shops in India, Chinese companies should set up their manufacturing units in China.
The world's third-largest smartphone maker, Huawei, opened its manufacturing unit in India last month.

"In any case, Indian businessmen flock to China in large numbers to buy products from China and sell them in India. This model suits China, so why disturb it by going and wasting money setting up manufacturing facilities in India?

"Let the Indian authorities bark about the growing trade deficit with China. The fact of the matter is they cannot do anything about it."


A contrary CHinese viewpoint.
http://www.defencenews.in/article/Dear- ... %27Bark%27

Dear China, Times are a changing : India's 'Bite' can be worse than its 'Bark'
Thursday, October 20, 2016
By: First Post

An op-ed piece in an English language Chinese newspaper is causing much consternation in India (read here). The piece uses terms like the Indian government's "bark" when referring to our concerns over widening trade deficit between the two countries.

Among other things, it also dismisses any attempt by India to match China's manufacturing prowess and terms attempts on Indian social media to boycott Chinese products as mere "rabble rousing".

It is true that the current ultra-nationalist sentiment, which has lead Indian social media warriors to call for boycott of all Chinese things is foolish and liable to fail, given India's dependence on imports from China. We import roughly six times more in value than what we export to China, our largest trading partner.

But then the op-ed in the Global Times is going to the other extreme and missing the woods for the trees. Even though India is in no position at present to stand up to Chinese hegemony in trade, there is every reason to believe that we can improve exports to that country, if we try.

The author of the acerbic piece in the Global Times has been described there as an Indian-born freelance writer living in Baiyin, Gansu Province. Perhaps he needs to take note of what researchers in Chinese territory, Hong Kong, have found through extensive research earlier this year about the potential that various Indian states have to develop as manufacturing hubs.

Yes, you heard it right. The research in fact said a number of manufacturing companies which right now operate in China are looking to shift lock, stock and barrel and could choose India over other Asian destinations.

For one, the strong Make in India push by Prime Minister Narendra Modi has attracted the attention of Hong Kong Trade Development Council (HKTDC), which has – over the last few months – conducted extensive research of advantages India provides for low-cost manufacturing versus other Asian economies such as Vietnam, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Sri Lanka and mainland China. And India seems to be a very favourbale destination in almost all parameters.

“We believe India has a huge potential for this. For one, India’s wages are way below China’s and many other South East Asian countries. Two, India has a huge buyers’ market – Vietnam has only about 90 million in domestic market size compared to about 1.3 billion people in India. Not many companies in Hong Kong are aware of India’s potential in low value added products’ manufacturing...we have done the research and shared it with them,” Dickson Ho, Principal Economist with HKTDC told Firstpost last month.

The Hong Kong-based companies are increasingly eyeing production relocation out of mainland China due to rising production costs. HKTDC Research visited Gujarat, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka earlier this year. It did not find the National Capital Region (NCR) viable because of rising costs for labour-intensive production.

Ho’s research quotes factory operators in these states to say manufacturers were increasingly relocating labour-intensive operations from the NCR to other states such as Maharashtra, Rajasthan and Gujarat to take advantage of lower production costs. The five states selected have been identified as having the most potential for production relocation and diversification.

Labour ::
HKTDC says competitive labour costs that are expected to remain for some time in India could be our biggest advantage in attracting fresh manufacturing. Currently, India’s labour costs are lower than China and almost all of the other countries in Southeast Asia, with the exception of Myanmar. We are a third of the wages in mainland China and roughly half those in Indonesia.

Industrial land rates ::
All selected states have developed industrial parks for private investors to set up their production plants. The state governments or private companies provide infrastructure and amenities such as connecting roads, electricity, water supply, sewage treatment facilities and communication networks. This is another feather in India’s cap

Transportation ::
Sea freight is an important factor for manufacturers. Mundra in Gujarat is a port-based special economic zone; Jawaharlal Nehru Port (JNPT) in Maharashtra is India’s largest port with hinterland covering Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Karnataka and most of North India. Visakhapatnam mainly serves northeast India, Chhattisgarh and Orissa. Chennai port is the major logistic hub of South India, supporting the vibrant manufacturing activities in Tamil Nadu. So most of the manufacturing hubs identified by HKTDC are also conveniently connected with major ports.

Ease of doing business ::
Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh are identified as the EODB reform leaders, adopting many business-friendly measures to entice both local and foreign investment, while the other three states require further acceleration in reform. Also, all five states have made notable efforts in tax reforms to streamline registration and payment of value added tax (VAT) and central sales tax (CST) through online services. At the national level, the Centre is working to pass the Goods and Services Tax (GST) Bill to convert India into a unified market and prevent tax-on-tax, notes HKTDC.

Tariffs on India made products ::
Another key consideration for factory relocation is the import tariffs levied on manufactured products originating from India and whether this country has entered into any preferential trade deals that lower the import tariffs. India has been an active player in Asia, securing free-trade agreements (FTAs) inside and outside the region, including engaging in an FTA talk with the EU. Taking yarn-related products as an example, import tariff rates for India range from 0 percent to 5 percent. Further, US import tariff rates for Indian yarn-related products range between 0 percent and 2.7 percent.

So will there be a wholesale movement of manufacturing from China to India anytime soon? Ho said earlier that large shifts of manufacturing facilities in favour of India may not immediately happen. Apparel, shoes, clothing, textiles and other low-value-added manufacturing activities may look for the shift initially. And this too would perhaps be a trickle instead of being a deluge. But even if a handful of manufacturing units in Hong Kong consider the shift, it would be worthwhile for India.

More to the point, it would make op-ed writers - with scant knowledge of the changing Indian landscape and policy environment - eat a humble pie.

DavidD
BRFite
Posts: 879
Joined: 23 Jun 2010 04:08

Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby DavidD » 20 Oct 2016 11:37

Philip,

Don't mind the Global Times op-eds, 99% of the time they're just poorly informed jingoistic rants. The second article takes a much more educated view, which if you read carefully actually agrees that this boycott business is unrealistic, though offers realistic ways for India to reverse the trade imbalance. As I mentioned in the buy Indian thread, strengthening oneself is the only way forward, these boycott shenanigans never work.

kit
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2570
Joined: 13 Jul 2006 18:16

Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby kit » 20 Oct 2016 14:10

DavidD wrote:Philip,

Don't mind the Global Times op-eds, 99% of the time they're just poorly informed jingoistic rants. The second article takes a much more educated view, which if you read carefully actually agrees that this boycott business is unrealistic, though offers realistic ways for India to reverse the trade imbalance. As I mentioned in the buy Indian thread, strengthening oneself is the only way forward, these boycott shenanigans never work.


Strengthening oneself in a democracy is a different measure than a totalitarien country like China . India needs a comprehensive grass roots movement ..no half measures

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 50066
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby ramana » 21 Oct 2016 22:38

News of Indian banks debit/Credit cards hack could be a Chinese attack.

SSridhar
Forum Moderator
Posts: 22776
Joined: 05 May 2001 11:31
Location: Chennai

Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 24 Oct 2016 09:48

China needs another Mao, Xi fits the bill, says media ahead of party meet - PTI
China needs a strong leader like Mao Zedong and President Xi Jinping “fits the bill”, an official publication of the ruling Communist Party said on the eve of a key meeting of the party. The four-day meeting, set to begin on Monday, could amend a decades-old rule and bolster Mr. Xi’s position.

Mr. Xi (63) currently heads a seven-member Standing Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) which virtually rules China. Since he took over the leadership in November 2012, Mr. Xi has emerged as the most powerful leader of China in recent times, beginning his ten-year tenure as head of both the party and the powerful military.


While the Standing Committee in the past represented collective leadership principles enunciated over three decades ago, critics say Mr. Xi’s emergence as a powerful leader has overshadowed other six members, including Premier Li Keqiang.

Mr. Xi has systematically consolidated power both in the party and the military, carrying out a massive anti-corruption drive and breaking established norms like that not to prosecute retired leaders and officials.

Ahead of the meet that begins on Monday, People’s Tribune , which is affiliated to CPC’s official newspaper People’s Daily said, “China needs a leader like Mao and Xi fits the bill.” — PTI

SSridhar
Forum Moderator
Posts: 22776
Joined: 05 May 2001 11:31
Location: Chennai

Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 24 Oct 2016 09:50

Chinese President Xi Jinping to consolidate power at party plenum - AFP
The leaders of the world’s most powerful political party gather in Beijing on Monday for a conclave that could change the course of Chinese history.

In meetings at the exclusive Jinxi Hotel, safe from the public’s prying eyes, nearly 400 top members of the Chinese Communist Party will confer for four days, discussing changes to how the giant party will be managed.

The meeting, according to the official Xinhua News service, will focus on the issue of “party discipline”.

The dry rhetoric hides what may be a ferocious, high-stakes battle for control over the world’s second largest economy.


The Sixth Plenum, as the meeting is known, comes as the party — which has more than 88 million members — faces a period of tectonic change. Since taking its helm in 2012, General Secretary Xi Jinping has sought to take control of more levers of power than any leader since Mao Zedong. Mr. Xi has described the party as a “magic weapon” that can be used to implement reforms necessary to achieve his goal of the “Great Rejuvenation” of the Chinese nation.

The meeting comes as speculation mounts that Mr. Xi could look to stay on in power after 2022, when he would normally be expected to step down after two terms in office. — AFP

SSridhar
Forum Moderator
Posts: 22776
Joined: 05 May 2001 11:31
Location: Chennai

Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 24 Oct 2016 17:49

China irked at US' India ambassador's Arunachal visit - Reuters
China admonished the United States on Monday for sending its ambassador in India to a contested stretch of land on the India-China border, warning that a third party's meddling would only complicate the dispute between Beijing and New Delhi.

China claims more than 90,000 sq km (35,000 sq miles) of Arunachal Pradesh, which China calls South Tibet.

US Ambassador to India Richard Verma posted photos on his Twitter account on Oct. 21 of his recent trip to Arunachal Pradesh, thanking Indian officials for their "warm hospitality" and calling the region a "magical place".

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang said China was "firmly opposed" to the US diplomat's actions, which he said would "damage the hard-earned peace and tranquillity of the China-India border region".

"Any responsible third party should respect efforts by China and India to seek peaceful and stable reconciliation, and not the opposite," Lu told a regular press briefing.

"We urge the United States to stop getting involved in the China-India territorial dispute and do more to benefit this region's peace and tranquillity," he said, adding that China and India were handling the matter appropriately through talks.

A spokesman for India's Ministry of External Affairs was not immediately available for comment.

Disagreement between the nuclear-armed neighbours over parts of their 3,500-km (2,175-mile) border led to a brief war in 1962. The countries have moved to control the dispute, but repeated rounds of talks have failed to make much progress.

India says China occupies 38,000 square km (14,600 sq miles) of its territory on the Aksai Chin plateau in the west, and is also suspicious of China's support for its arch-rival, Pakistan.

Tensions occasionally flare over the disputed border. In August, China was angered by India's plans to place advanced cruise missiles there.


What about GB through which China built Karakorum Highway and proposes to build the CPEC? What about the Chineze involvement with the Diamar-Basha Dam and the Neelum-Jhelum Power Plant which are located, not in 'disputed' lands, but on Indian territory held illegally by Pakistan? What about the 1963 Border Agreement between China & Pakistan through which China fraudulently occupied the Indian land of the Shaksgam Valley?

If China is asked these questions, I am sure its spokesperson would give funny answers.

TKiran
BRFite
Posts: 836
Joined: 13 Dec 2009 00:22

Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby TKiran » 24 Oct 2016 18:00

Actually Tibet is an occupied territory by Chinese han, there is a border dispute between Tibet and India, and as Tibet's Govt is in exile, and China is temporarily taking care of the foreign affairs of Tibet, the Chinese are claiming that there is a border dispute between Tibet and India, and China is trying hard to get a solution by negotiating with India on behalf of Tibet, as long as China is in charge of Tibet.

Once Tibet gets the Independence, we can directly negotiate with Tibet. Till then there would be chai-biscoot between China and India on the alleged dispute between Tibet and India.

SSridhar
Forum Moderator
Posts: 22776
Joined: 05 May 2001 11:31
Location: Chennai

Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 24 Oct 2016 18:51

Nothing unusual about US enovy trip to Arunachal Pradesh: India - The Hindu
Rebuffing China for objecting to U.S. Ambassador to India Richard Verma's visit to Arunachal Pradesh, India said on Monday there was “nothing unusual” about his trip to a State that was an integral part of the country.

“The U.S. Ambassador visited Arunachal Pradesh, a State which is an integral part of the country to which he is accredited. There is nothing unusual in it,” External Affairs Ministry Spokesperson Vikas Swarup said here [New Delhi].

IndraD
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6719
Joined: 26 Dec 2008 15:38
Location: भारत का निश्चेत गगन

Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby IndraD » 24 Oct 2016 22:27

Milan honors Dalai Lama as citizen over China's objections http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/worl ... 962883.cms

SSridhar
Forum Moderator
Posts: 22776
Joined: 05 May 2001 11:31
Location: Chennai

Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 25 Oct 2016 13:30

China’s Dam Building Spree in Tibet: Strategic Implications and India’s Options - G.G.Dwivedi, IDSA
Recent reports have pointed to China blocking the Xiabuqu tributary of the Yarlung Zangpo River (Tibetan name for Brahmaputra) for a dam project. The 195-km long Xiabuqu originates at Bainang and joins the Brahmaputra at Xigaze, close to Sikkim. The construction of the dam as part of the Lalho hydroelectric project at Xigaze reportedly began in June 2014 and is expected to be completed by 2019.

The project has been viewed with concern in India, which is a lower riparian state. The Yarlung Zangpo flows 1625 kms in Tibet before entering Arunachal Pradesh as the Siang. Further down, after confluence with the Dibang and Lohit, it is known as the Brahmaputra. In Bangladesh, it merges with the Ganga and empties into the Bay of Bengal.

China has tried to allay India’s apprehensions by stating that the project is not designed to hold water. It further claims that the Xiabuqu’s mean discharge volume is barely 0.02 per cent of the Brahmaputra’s average annual trans- boundary discharge, which latter is estimated at 142.37 cubic km. Earlier, Beijing had vehemently denied undertaking any dam construction activities on the Brahmaputra in Tibet. It was only in 2010 that the then Chinese Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi formally acknowledged the construction of the Zangmu dam.

China’s closed door political system is shrouded in secrecy, leading to trust deficit. In the absence of an effective water sharing mechanism, the construction of the dam on the Xiabuqu could emerge as another irritant between India and China. Beijing’s elaborate plans to harness the waters of the rivers in Tibet have serious strategic and socio-economic implications for India.

China’s Grand Design


China’s water resources are unevenly distributed. The better developed northern region, home to 42 per cent of the country’s population, contains only 14 per cent of its fresh water. The agrarian South, which is comparatively less developed, is water surplus with a 86 per cent share of the country’s total fresh water. Over the years, industrial and domestic usage of water in China has increased significantly. As a result, Beijing has taken recourse to dam construction and water diversion to sustain economic growth.

The Tibet plateau has enormous strategic significance due to its rich water resources. Its 100,000 sq. km. surface is covered by glaciers that feed a number of river systems in South and South East Asia. The major Chinese rivers, Yangtze and Huang He, originate from the plateau. The Indus and Sutlej that flow through India also have their origin in Tibet. And the Salween and Mekong rivers, which also originate in Tibet, traverse through Indo-China.

China, as the largest consumer of energy, plans to double its current electricity generation capacity to 430,000 MW in the next couple of years. To reduce carbon emissions, Beijing aims to enhance the proportion of non-fossil fuel usage to 15 per cent by 2020. According to the Chinese Academy of Science, the hydroelectric power generation capacity of the Yarlung Zangpo basin is around 114,000 MW. The Chinese are in the process of constructing 36 dams on the rivers and tributaries in Tibet.

To tide over existing water and energy shortages, China has adopted a multi- pronged strategy. The Three Gorges project on the Yangtze generates 18,000 MW of electricity and has enabled the transfer of water to the northern regions. Another project underway is the South-North Water Transfer Project (SNWTP), which entails diverting the waters of the Yangtze to augment the capacity of the Huang He.

In Tibet, the Chinese dam building spree on the Brahmaputra includes the 510 MW dam at Zangmu, which was completed in 2015. Under the ‘New Energy Development Plan-2015’, the Chinese cabinet has approved the construction of three more dams on the middle reaches of the Brahmaputra. Two of these dams, Dagu (640 MW) and Jiexu (capacity unconfirmed), are 18 and 11 kms, respectively, upstream of the Zangmu. The third at Jiacha (340 MW) is downstream.

However, it is the northward rerouting of waters under the ‘Great Western Route Water Transfer Project’ that is of serious concern to India. The proposal involves the construction of a mega dam (38,000 MW capacity) at Namcha Barwa, where the Brahmaputra makes a steep loop before entering India. While initially the project is for power generation, subsequent plans are to divert water up to 200 bcm for irrigating the deserts of Xinjiang, Gansu and Inner Mongolia. Due to the requirement of major tunnelling effort, for the time being, the project is on hold. However, the Chinese have proven expertise in executing highly complex engineering ventures.

The Chinese are also in the process of constructing about a dozen dams on the Salween (Nu) in Tibet and Yunnan. Six mammoth dam projects on the Mekong are also in the pipeline.

Strategic Implications

Dams over the Yarlung Zangpo, even if these are ‘run of river’ projects, provide China the ability to control the flow of water in the Brahmaputra. An accidental or emergent outflow from these dams could prove catastrophic. Cases in point in this regard are: the sudden rise of water in the Siang in 2000, which resulted in the death of 26 people; and, the Pareechu episode in 2005, which led to flash floods in the Sutlej causing extensive damage.

In case China pursues the option of diverting the waters of the Brahmaputra, the consequences could be wide ranging. It could seriously affect the navigability of National Waterway-2 – the 890 km stretch from Sadiya to Dhubri – given the requirement of maintaining a minimum depth of 1.5 metres from Sadiya to Dibrugarh and 2 metres beyond that. Even ‘run of river’ projects are not benign. When water held back in pondage is released for the turbines to operate, it results in diurnal variation in the downstream flow. That, in turn, is likely to seriously impact India’s efforts to exploit the hydro potential of the region. Moreover, any disturbance in the existing ecological environment will have an adverse effect on the densely populated Brahmaputra Valley.

To counter the Chinese grand design of ‘stealing the rivers’, India has planned to construct 76 dams with an estimated capacity of 36,900 MW, taking advantage of the ‘UN advisory on the river water dispute’, whereby a downstream riparian state can ensure ‘first user right’ on the international rivers by building dams. Of these, the 44 dams on the Siang are expected to generate 18,293 MW of hydro power. But very little progress has been made on these dam projects due to numerous factors: inefficient official machinery, allegations of corruption and kickbacks, influential activist bodies opposing the construction of the dams on the pretext of environment degradation, and technical glitches, to name a few.

While China as an upper riparian state enjoys ‘restricted territorial sovereignty’ as per international law, it also has an obligation to protect the interests of lower riparian nations. Currently, there is no arrangement between India and China on water sharing. In a recent article carried by the state-run Global Times, China had expressed willingness to have multilateral cooperation with India and Bangladesh to share waters. Retracting this two days later, the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s official spokesperson went on to state that effective cooperation regarding sharing data on the flow of rivers already existed.

India’s Options

India needs to address the issue of water sharing with China in a comprehensive manner. New Delhi must garner the support of other affected nations – Bangladesh and Bhutan, besides Myanmar, Thailand, Laos and Vietnam – to build consensus with the aim of dissuading China from going ahead with the planned projects in Tibet. There is an urgent need to formulate a national policy that factors in both the strategic and legal dimensions. Besides, the constitution of a body of experts would go a long way in addressing the issue in its entirety.

In the emerging geopolitical scenario, water and energy security are critical for China to realise its global aspirations. In pursuit of national interests, the Communist Party’s leadership approach is characterised by assertiveness and unilateralism. Therefore, instead of adopting a policy of appeasement, New Delhi must forcefully take up its concerns with Beijing. It is only through persistence that a formal framework for a water sharing mechanism with China can be evolved. To this end, strong political will combined with crafty diplomacy appears to be the best option.

The author is a former Assistant Chief Integrated Staff. He has served as Defence Attaché in China. He is currently Professor Security & Strategic Studies at Aligarh Muslim University.

SSridhar
Forum Moderator
Posts: 22776
Joined: 05 May 2001 11:31
Location: Chennai

Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 25 Oct 2016 19:50

San Diego to South China Sea: U.S. Navy tested new command in latest challenge to China - Reuters
The U.S. Navy destroyer that sailed near Chinese-claimed islands in the South China Sea last week was under orders from the Third Fleet headquarters in San Diego, a first aimed at bolstering U.S. maritime power in the region, two sources said.

The USS Decatur on Friday challenged China's "excessive maritime claims" near the Paracel Islands, part of a string of islets, reefs and shoals over which Beijing has territorial disputes with its neighbours.

It was the first time such a freedom of navigation operation has been conducted without the Japan-based Seventh Fleet in command and was a test of changes aimed to allow the U.S. Navy to conduct maritime operations on two fronts in Asia at the same time
, two sources told Reuters. The sources spoke on condition that they were not identified.

Having the Third Fleet regularly command vessels in Asia, which it has not done since World War Two, means the U.S. Navy can better conduct simultaneous operations such as on the Korean peninsula and in the Philippines, said one of the sources, who is familiar with the goals of the reorganization.

"It is the first iteration of what will be a more regular operations tempo," he said.

The guided-missile destroyer Decatur is part of a three-ship Surface Action Group (SAG) deployed to the South China Sea six months ago, said Commander Ryan Perry, a spokesman for the Third Fleet in San Diego, who confirmed its command role.

U.S. Pacific Fleet Commander Admiral Scott Swift last year signaled a wider role for the Third Fleet, when he said he was abolishing an administrative boundary along the international dateline that had separated the Third and Seventh fleets.

Until then, Third Fleet vessels crossing the line came under Seventh Fleet command.

This year, an official told Reuters more ships from the Third Fleet would be sent to East Asia.

The reorganisation, giving the Third Fleet a bigger frontline role, comes as momentum for the United States' Asian "pivot" falters and as Beijing's growing assertiveness fuels tension in the South China Sea.

China claims most of the sea, through which $5 trillion in ship-borne trade passes a year. The Philippines, Vietnam, Taiwan and Brunei have overlapping claims.

Beijing has accused Washington of deliberately creating tension by sailing its ships close to China's islands.

Asked about the use of the Third Fleet headquarters, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lu Kang said that if U.S. moves harmed the peace, security and stability of the Asia Pacific then China would naturally oppose them.

"If U.S. moves jeopardise China's sovereign rights and security interests then China will, when all is said and done, take necessary steps in response," Lu told a daily news briefing in Beijing, without elaborating.

The latest U.S. operation, its fourth, came as new Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte travelled to China to seek deeper ties with Asia's biggest economy. This week, he visits U.S. ally Japan.

The Seventh Fleet, headquartered at the Japanese port of Yokosuka near Tokyo, is the most powerful naval fleet in Asia, with some 80 ships, including the United States' only forward deployed carrier, the USS Ronald Reagan.

The U.S. Third Fleet consists of more than 100 vessels, including four aircraft carriers.

IndraD
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6719
Joined: 26 Dec 2008 15:38
Location: भारत का निश्चेत गगन

Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby IndraD » 25 Oct 2016 22:34

Infrastructure along India-China border being enhanced at "galloping pace": ITBP DG
Several border posts, with electricity supply have reduced Chinese incursions significantly .
http://www.firstpost.com/india/infrastr ... 69644.html

IndraD
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6719
Joined: 26 Dec 2008 15:38
Location: भारत का निश्चेत गगन

Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby IndraD » 25 Oct 2016 22:35

At least 100 women ITBP personnel have been deployed at 15 border posts along the arduous Sino-India frontier

making it the first such posting of ‘mahila’ combatants in a forward area. The force has recently completed the full processes for deployment of the women personnel at select forward posts, ITBP Director General Krishna Chaudhary told reporters here. The women contingent, trained in war craft and and weapon firing, have been posted after the Border out Posts (BoPs) were made “gender neutral” and other facilities were created for them, he said.

http://indianexpress.com/article/india/ ... r-3100409/

Prem
BRF Oldie
Posts: 20830
Joined: 01 Jul 1999 11:31
Location: Weighing and Waiting 8T Yconomy

Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Prem » 25 Oct 2016 23:47

http://www.sundayguardianlive.com/opini ... ready-over
China’s ‘century’ is already over
Over already? For one thing, China’s economy, the motor of the country’s rise, looks like the engine of its fall. Wednesday, Beijing’s National Bureau of Statistics reported that the country’s gross domestic product grew 6.7% in the third calendar quarter, the same rate announced for both the first and second quarters of this year. The extraordinary consistency is remarkable and suggests Beijing is not accurately reporting the country’s economic performance. No economy, especially an emerging one, can grow without volatility.Although Chinese leaders have been able to shape global perceptions with their announcements, scepticism exists. Citigroup chief economist Willem Buiter, who called China’s data“mendacious”, believes growth is about half what is routinely reported. Christopher Balding of Peking University’s HSBC Business School, examining bank payment data, thinks China’s economy is close to a zero rate.Yet even if China were growing at the announced 6.7% rate—dubious, to say the least—the country is creating debt four times faster than incremental GDP. No one knows how much debt the country has incurred in its frantic growth push, but the accumulation of obligations is worrisome. China is heading to a debt crisis, as the Bank for International Settlements, the bank for central banks, warned last month.And the Chinese people are evidently concerned. The country is bleeding money, a sign of their fundamental lack of confidence in their economy and society. Net capital outflow last year reached $1 trillion according to Bloomberg, the financial data provider. This year, outbound flows could, despite the imposition of extraordinary controls, match 2015’s total or even exceed it.Some observers see China returning to a period of robust growth due to a consumption-powered rally, but there is a developing consensus that the country’s economy will, over a long period, stall. Washington, D.C.-based scholars Dan Blumenthal and Derek Scissors make this case in their recent essay, “China’s Great Stagnation”. ( posted earlier on this thread)More likely in my view is a sharp crisis, largely the result of misguided policies applied over the course of the past decade. Chinese leaders will, I believe, continue to use every policy tool to keep the economy going until they can no longer do so. When they can no longer do so, the economy will go into free fall. For various reasons, including the failure to implement reforms, China has passed the point of no return. Chinese leaders, it appears to me, are merely delaying the inevitable.
Yet whether the economy fails in a crash or endures decades of recession and recession-like stagnation, the country’s leadership will have to make tough choices.
In fact, Beijing already has had to do so. The biggest surprise from this year’s National People’s Congress was the announcement that the budget for the People’s Liberation Army would increase only 7.6%, well below last year’s 10.1% rise and the first single-digit increase since 2010. Senior officers grumbled in public over the relatively paltry rise. Lt Gen Wang Hongguang, for instance, said the armed forces should have received a 20% increase.At a time of rising demand at home, Chinese leaders have great ambitions abroad. Among other plans, they want to orbit a space station; build a base on the moon; plant military depots across the globe; and build two great transportation links connecting their country to Africa, Central Asia, and Europe, the “21st Century Maritime Silk Road” and the “Silk Road Economic Belt”. They are financially supporting regimes from Pakistan to North Korea to Venezuela to Zimbabwe. They are building a capital for Egypt and a canal for Nicaragua. At home, they are constructing cities without people and high-speed rail lines for deserted locations. Beijing has contracted the world’s worst case of Paul Kennedy’s “imperial overstretch.”And, at the same time, Chinese leaders seem determined to provoke disputes in an arc from India in the south to South Korea in the north. In its surrounding seas—the South China Sea, the East China Sea, and the Yellow Sea—Beijing is trying to seize islands and close off international water. As it tries to do so, it needles the United States, its allies, and friends. And apart from Russia, North Korea, and a few other needy states, China has no friends of its own.
The world, therefore, has a stake in this internal turmoil because it’s possible to draw a mostly straight line between the troubled leadership transition and the country’s more provocative external policies. And much of this has to do with China’s generals and admirals easing themselves into a power brokering role in the Communist Party. As a result, some senior military officers now wield great influence over Xi, who relies on them for their backing.Chinese leaders, both military and civilian, must be starting to see a closing window of opportunity. Soon, if they have not done so already, they will understand that their crumbling economy, which is on the eve of a debt crisis, will not support their long-term ambitions. We have to be concerned, therefore, that Beijing will lash out.

Philip
BRF Oldie
Posts: 19366
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: India

Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Philip » 26 Oct 2016 12:22

It's working! Anti-China sentiment is slowly gathering momentum.We need to keep the momentum up and increase awareness of the insidious Chinese strategy to beggar India and overwhelm India militarily using our own money.The $50B trade deficit could work wonders if even half is used for the armed forces and the otrher half for Indian small/med scale industry incentives.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city ... 059184.cms
Desi stuff rides high on ‘shun Chinese’ wave
TNN | Updated: Oct 26, 2016, 07:08 IST
Jaipur: City's leading markets like Johari Bazaar, Kishan Pol Bazaar and MI Road are decked up with multi-coloured fluorescent lights, fancy figurines, LED diyas and speakers blaring out latest Bollywood hits.
Despite rising popularity of e-commerce websites and malls, the Walled City markets continue to cater to people from all walks of life. "People from places like Dausa, Kekri and Sikar are thronging Indira Bazaar and Bapu Bazaar to buy new bedsheets and readymade clothes. There is hardly any dip in our sales," said Govind Swaroop Sharma, owner of an electronics shop at Radio market.
The entire Walled City market was teeming with people hopping from one shop to another; huge crowds were seen outside shops of crackers, namkeen, dry fruits, idols, sweets and electronic appliances.

Bucking the trend, city folks this time are increasingly shunning Chinese products, especially decorative lights for desi diyas and artificial flowers. Shop owners said the call to boycott Chinese products has led to a sharp dip in sale of Chinese goods. Even market associations so far have relied on hanging candles, flowers and indigenous bulbs for decorations.
"The market sentiment is against Chinese products. There is a 30% to 40% dip in sale of all Chinese goods. Traders also have to respect the customers' emotions; therefore, many traders and retailors have cut down the orders of Chinese products," said Anand Maharwal, additional sectary, Rajasthan Chamber of Commerce and Industries.
Chinese products like lights, bulbs and fancy electric candles were widely used during the festival season, but there are few takers for these cheap products this year. "A Chinese light costs around Rs 60, in the same cost, you can get 100 diyas. We had ordered 200 lights for this Diwali, but after the call to boycott Chinese products gained momentum, we have sold only 67 lights so far. The sale has dropped to more than 50%," said BL Chandel, owner of an electronics shop.
The boycott of Chinese products has led to a sharp increase in demand for desi products like candles, small and big sized diyas. "Such is the demand this time that we have to work overtime to make more and more diyas. We have already sold over 1,500 diyas till Dussehra and we are making more every day to meet the demand," said Meena Bai, a diya retailer at Chaura Raasta.

Singha
BRF Oldie
Posts: 62680
Joined: 13 Aug 2004 19:42
Location: the grasshopper lies heavy

Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Singha » 26 Oct 2016 12:29

president Duterte says he wants all foreign(ie american) troops gone from his country within 2 years.

Philip
BRF Oldie
Posts: 19366
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: India

Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Philip » 27 Oct 2016 10:53

Paying China back in the same coin.The sh*tworms of Beijing think that they can ride roughshod over everyone on the planet.The Dalai Lama is the sspiritual head of the Tibetan people and Godless China will one day be punished by the Almighty for their evildoing.

http://www.defencenews.in/article/Modi- ... na_furious
Modi clears Dalai Lama’s proposed Arunachal visit : China furious :mrgreen:
Thursday, October 27, 2016
By: ET

The Modi government has cleared Dalai Lama’s proposed visit to Arunachal Pradesh early next year in a move that might further rile China after Beijing had protested against the recent tour to the northeastern state by US envoy Richard Verma.

The MEA on Monday dismissed Beijing’s objection to Verma’s October 21 visit to Tawang in Arunachal Pradesh, asserting that the state is an integral part of India.

The government also cleared Tibet’s exiled leader the Dalai Lama’s proposed visit to Arunachal Pradesh in early 2017, sources in Tibetan government in exile indicated.

This move will raise eyebrows in Beijing. In 2009, China had protested against a similar plan by the Dalai Lama to visit Arunachal Pradesh.

The current Dalai Lama fled from China to India via Tawang in 1959.

One of the earlier Dalai Lamas was born in Tawang. China on Monday said that it was “firmly opposed” to Verma’s visit to Arunachal Pradesh, as it was a “disputed region between India and China”. The issue may be raised by China’s state councillor Yang Jiechi when he visits India soon. Jiechi is also the Chinese special representative for boundary talks with India.

India would raise with Yang the issue of China Pakistan Economic Corridor through PoK and reiterate its demand for Beijing’s support in the UN against Masood Azhar.

Interestingly, China recently acted on India’s request and arrested a Pakistani fake currency smuggler carrying fake Indian notes from Guangzhou. It was a result of trilateral cooperation between India-China-Sri Lanka.

The US ambassador to India visited Arunachal Pradesh to take part in the Tawang festival on October 21. He was invited by chief minister Pema Khandu. China does not recognise Arunachal Pradesh as a part of India and claims over 83,500 sq km of territory in the state as its own, particularly the Tawang tract.

“The US ambassador visited Arunachal Pradesh, a state which is an integral part of the country to which he is accredited. There is nothing unusual in it,” Vikas Swarup, official spokesperson of the Ministry of External Affairs, said.

His comment came after Beijing stated that “interference” by the US in the boundary dispute between India and China would “disturb the hardwon peace and tranquillity” in border areas and “stir up or heighten tensions”.

The US ambassador’s tour New Delhi’s permission to Dalai Lama’s proposed visit to Arunachal Pradesh put the spotlight once again on the long-pending territorial dispute between India and China.


adityadange
BRFite
Posts: 274
Joined: 04 Aug 2011 11:34

Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby adityadange » 27 Oct 2016 16:09

In order to contain china what if we start talking about democracy in china? i mean the way they create maoist groups in india is it possible for us to create democratic groups in china? they dont need to be violent etc. specially in these days on internet the task might be easier that before (i understand that it is difficult although internet and social media is there).

SSridhar
Forum Moderator
Posts: 22776
Joined: 05 May 2001 11:31
Location: Chennai

Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 27 Oct 2016 17:47

Boycott of goods will hurt ties, warns China

What about transfer of nuclear weapons to our enemy country by China? What about non-tariff trade barriers against Indian goods & services? China feels that it can threaten every country and get away with it.

Boycott of Chinese goods in the Indian festive season will hurt bilateral cooperation, the Embassy of China said in an official release issued on Wednesday. The statement came following reports that sale of Chinese products had dipped during the pre-Diwali days due to an online campaign that urged Indian consumers to boycott Chinese products and firecrackers.

“China is the world’s largest trading nation in goods, with its exports in 2015 amounting to $2,276.5 billion. The exports to India accounted for only 2% of China’s total exports. India’s boycott of Chinese goods will not have much impact on China’s exports. China is more concerned that the boycott will negatively affect Chinese enterprises to invest in India and the bilateral cooperation, which both Chinese and Indian people are not willing to see,” it said.

adityadange
BRFite
Posts: 274
Joined: 04 Aug 2011 11:34

Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby adityadange » 27 Oct 2016 19:48

i think china has started feeling the heat about boycott. even if indian trade is only 2% of $2276 bn it still makes $22bn and if that trade comes down to 50% then its still 11bn. this reduces the trade deficit between china and india to $39bn (50bn is the amount if i recall right). about 20% reduction in trade deficit.

svinayak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 14223
Joined: 09 Feb 1999 12:31

Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby svinayak » 27 Oct 2016 20:44

adityadange wrote:i think china has started feeling the heat about boycott. even if indian trade is only 2% of $2276 bn it still makes $22bn and if that trade comes down to 50% then its still 11bn. this reduces the trade deficit between china and india to $39bn (50bn is the amount if i recall right). about 20% reduction in trade deficit.


It is about the sentiment they are worried. They had no nation connecting their trade with their foriegn policy.
They thought that things can go same way even if they did not stop the terror org being banned by UN.

Now China has to be linked to directly supporting terror in India. Boycott of Chinese goods should be connected to support for Terror in India

IndraD
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6719
Joined: 26 Dec 2008 15:38
Location: भारत का निश्चेत गगन

Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby IndraD » 27 Oct 2016 20:56

China is not bothered about trade deficit etc (2% of exports) but baffled that their bullying is being answered back. India is not afraid any more and steps being taken to demonise them . Up coming Dalai Lama visit to Arunachal is one such step. US envoy in Arunachal was not long ago. If TIbetans are mobilised to rally around 'democracy in China' 'free Tibet' etc with intl media working as force multiplier it can hurt their image badly.

Atulya P
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 39
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Atulya P » 27 Oct 2016 21:46

While sentimental value may be high, this is not going to impact the deficit by much. Thinking about 20% reduction is a pipe dream. The impact due to this boycott etc would be nothing compared with the majority of trade which is skewed towards Electronics (36%), Machinery (22%), Chemicals and Fertilizers (20%). Even if the boycott impacts Electronics by 10% and others by 1-5%, the net impact would be limited to 5%.

The bigger impact would be sentimental, noise being over-indexed to actual reality. Suits us fine.

IndraD
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6719
Joined: 26 Dec 2008 15:38
Location: भारत का निश्चेत गगन

Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby IndraD » 28 Oct 2016 16:38

Dalai Lama's Arunachal visit will damage ties with India: China http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 112857.cms

SSridhar
Forum Moderator
Posts: 22776
Joined: 05 May 2001 11:31
Location: Chennai

Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 28 Oct 2016 18:43

China has objected earlier to the Dalai Lama-Man Mohan Singh meeting and in c. 2011, after the Dalai Lama addressed Buddhist monks in Kolkatta, China even postponed the border talks between the Special Representatives. Chinese threats shall be ignored.


Return to “Trash Can Archive”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 2 guests