Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

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pankajs
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby pankajs » 11 Nov 2016 13:34

SSridhar wrote:[url=http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/South-China-Sea-China-asks-India-Japan-to-respect-neighbours-concerns/articleshow/55364274.cms]Chinese official media warned that India may suffer "great losses" in bilateral trade if it joins Japan to ask China to abide by the international tribunal's ruling quashing Beijing's claims over the South China Sea (SCS) Indo-China Sea (ICS)

"India should beware of the possibility that by becoming embroiled in the disputes, it might end up being a pawn of the US and suffer great losses, especially in terms of business and trade, from China," an op-ed article in state-run Global Times said yesterday.
[/quote]
This is the real baki part. They have a massive trade surplus and India will suffer trade gets disrupted. :rotfl:

This SunSu type behavior strikes me as odd.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby TKiran » 11 Nov 2016 15:42

India should respect China’s position on Dalai Lama: Envoy
http://idrw.org/india-should-respect-ch ... ama-envoy/

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby chanakyaa » 12 Nov 2016 05:05


SSridhar
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 12 Nov 2016 17:13

India will not become a 'pawn' for Japan: China's Global Times - PTI
India will not become a "pawn" for Japan to contain China, a Chinese state-run media said on Saturday, accusing Japan of exploiting Sino-India disputes for its own interests.

"Japan wants to use the disputes between China and India to court India to help contain China. Japan seeks to urge India to meddle in the South China Sea issue, even at the cost of changing its long-held position of reducing nuclear usage to offer special benefits of civil nuclear cooperation to India," Global Times said in an editorial on Prime Minister Narendra Modi's three-day visit to Japan.

"Looking at Japan's diplomatic policies over the past few years, (Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo) Abe administration has become more active trying to sway regional powers to encircle China," the daily said.


It said that India is in need of acquiring nuclear and military technology from Japan and attracting more investment for its manufacturing industries and infrastructure, like high-speed railways.

The daily, however, said that India is not likely to change its position according to the wishes of Japan.

"India takes a multilateral approach to diplomacy and pursues a status as a leading power. Japan's plans are full of antagonism, which contradict India's policies. Therefore India will practically assess specific cooperation with Japan case by case," the daily said.

"India will not become a pawn for Japan to contain China, as it wants to become a power on par with China and Japan and benefit from both sides. India will get closer to Japan but will not enter into a brotherhood relationship," it said.

The editorial, which was apparently written before India and Japan issued joint statement on Friday, said that "both sides hinted they would include the South China Sea Arbitration in their joint statement".

India and Japan on Friday sought a peaceful solution to the territorial disputes in the strategic South China Sea, saying parties involved in the matter must not resort to "threat or use of force", in remarks that could anger China which is opposed to any outside interference.

There is no official reaction by China yet about the outcome of Modi's visit, but ahead of his visit Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lu Kang told media that New Delhi and Tokyo should respect the legitimate concerns of their neighbours.

A Chinese state media report on Wednesday warned India that it may suffer "great losses" in bilateral trade if it joins Japan in asking China to abide by an international tribunal's ruling quashing Beijing's claims over the SCS.

China has been making aggressive advances in the strategic region - parts of which are also claimed by Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia and Brunei - by rapidly building artificial islets that experts fear could be potentially used as military posts.


The Chinese reaction is on predictable lines. Its reaction every time Indian leaders meet leaders of other nations is hope and despair, hope that India would not do something that would affect interests of China and despair that India is increasingly taking a tough stance vis-a-vis China. It tries to drive the thin end of a wedge by seemingly praising Indian neutrality. It regularly does it with India-US and India-Japan relationships.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby anupmisra » 12 Nov 2016 18:14

UN peacekeepers refused to help as aid workers were raped in South Sudan – report

Chinese troops abandoned their posts rather than engage in fighting and protect civilians, says US-based rights group
Chinese UN peacekeepers in the capital Juba “abandoned their posts entirely” at one civilian protection site where tens of thousands had sought safety from successive bouts of fighting
The Chinese troops subsequently abandoned their posts, leaving weapons and ammunition behind


According to: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/ ... ers-report

However, China denies allegations its peacekeepers abandoned S.Sudan posts

Yang Yujun, a spokesman for China's Ministry of Defence, said in comments published on the ministry's official website (http://www.mod.gov.cn) that the report was "malicious speculation".


According to: http://af.reuters.com/article/southSuda ... FL4N1CH00G

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby arun » 12 Nov 2016 20:20

X Posted.

Point 51 of the India-Japan Joint Statement calls out the Peoples Republic of China’s high handed behaviour in the South China Sea (SCS) Indo-China Sea (ICS) 8) :


The two Prime Ministers reiterated their commitment to respecting freedom of navigation and over flight, and unimpeded lawful commerce, based on the principles of international law, as reflected notably in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). In this context, they urged all parties to resolve disputes through peaceful means without resorting to threat or use of force and exercise self-restraint in the conduct of activities, and avoid unilateral actions that raise tensions. As the leaders of the State Parties to the UNCLOS, the two Prime Ministers reiterated their view that all parties should show utmost respect to the UNCLOS, which establishes the international legal order of the seas and oceans. Regarding the South China Sea, the two Prime Ministers stressed the importance of resolving the disputes by peaceful means, in accordance with universally recognised principles of international law including the UNCLOS.



From the Nov 11 Press Release by Government of India’s Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) via the “Official” Press Information Bureau’s (PIB) website:


India-Japan Joint Statement during the visit of Prime Minister to Japan

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Prem » 13 Nov 2016 09:06

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-e ... SKBN1360IU
Trump sees Japan's Abe as ally in push back against China: adviser

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's meeting next week with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe may mark the start of talks to garner Japan's support for a push back against China's growing influence in Asia, a security adviser to Trump said.In the face of a rising China and a volatile North Korea, Trump's campaign comments, including a demand that Japan pay more for the upkeep of U.S. forces on its soil, have worried Tokyo about a rift in a security alliance with Washington that has been the bedrock of its defense since World War Two.A tougher stance against China, however, and a call for Japan to play a bigger security role through a Trump-Abe axis would fit with Abe's hawkish policies that include allowing the military to operate more freely overseas.Abe will meet Trump in New York on Thursday before going to the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Peru.Trump was looking to Japan "to play a more active role in Asia", the adviser, who declined to be identified because he was not authorized to talk to the media, told Reuters.Abe, he added, was "a uniquely placed figure to offer leadership in the alliance".
Senior U.S. Navy commanders have said they would welcome joint air and sea patrols with Japan's military in the disputed South China Sea, where the construction of island bases is extending Beijing's influence. Tokyo has balked at direct provocation of its neighbor, choosing instead to assist nations in the region with disputes with China, such as the Philippines.Trump, in his first 100 days in office, would end budget sequestration that mandates spending, including cuts in military outlays, and submit a budget that would fund construction of dozens of new warships, the adviser said.It would "send a message to Beijing as well as allies Japan and South Korea and other nations that the U.S. is intent on being in (Asia) for a long time", he said.However, current U.S. officials warn it would be difficult to build and absorb new warships."Ships can't be built overnight," a U.S. defense official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity. "The larger concern is how they would be funded and how they would be manned."Potential friction between the two countries, however, exists over how much Tokyo pays for the deployment of U.S. forces in Japan. Japan says the funding it provides, which covers three quarters of the cost, is enough."We are bearing the burden for what we should bear," Japanese Minister of Defense Tomomi Inada told reporters in Tokyo on Friday, Kyodo news reported.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Prem » 14 Nov 2016 10:33

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-t ... ium=Social

China's Xi tells Trump cooperation is only choice

Chinese President Xi Jinping told U.S. President-elect Donald Trump in a phone call on Monday that cooperation was the only choice for relations between the two countries, Chinese state media said.Trump had lambasted China throughout the U.S. election campaign, drumming up headlines with his pledges to slap 45 percent tariffs on imported Chinese goods and to label the country a currency manipulator on his first day in office.His election has injected uncertainty into bilateral relations at a time when Beijing hopes for stability as it faces daunting reform challenges at home, a slowing economy, and a leadership reshuffle of its own that will put a new party elite around Xi in late 2017."The facts prove that cooperation is the only correct choice for China and the United States," China Central Television (CCTV) cited Xi as telling Trump."The two sides must strengthen coordination, promote the two countries' economic development and global economic growth, expand all areas of exchange and cooperation, ensure the two countries' people obtain more tangible benefits, and push for better development going forward in China-U.S. relations," Xi said.CCTV said Trump told Xi he was willing to work with China to strengthen U.S.-China cooperation and that he believed U.S.-China relations can "definitely achieve greater development".The two exchanged views on issues of concern to both sides and agreed to maintain close communication and meet soon, CCTV said.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 14 Nov 2016 11:00

‘OBOR project caught India by surprise’ - The Hindu
The China sponsored ‘One Belt One Road’(OBOR) project has caught India by surprise, said Srikanth Kondappally, Professor of Chinese Studies, JNU.

Delivering the valedictory address at the conference on ‘India, China and the new Silk Road Initiatives’ organised by the Mahatma Gandhi University [Kottayam], Prof. Kondappally said while the proposed global scale of the projects connecting Europe, Asia and Africa could provide an opportunity for expanding trade and investments it also challenged the national security of the country as the projects are passing through the India-claimed Kashmir regions currently held by Pakistan.

OBOR projects, if pursued vigorously are expected to connect the ‘heartland’ with the ‘rim land through continental and maritime routes and thus at one stroke make the rising China indispensable in the calculations of any country in the region, he said.

For India, regional and global leadership issues are also a consideration in the OBOR initiative. On the other hand, India also has its own initiative of Project Mausam of reviving commercial and cultural linkages with the Indian Ocean region and beyond, he noted.

Kandaswami Subramanian from Chennai Centre for China Studies, said that the global economic crisis leading to the collapse of exports has fuelled the rebalancing in China.

The earlier economic model had created excess capacity in major sectors like steel, transport, cement, metals. These excess capacities coupled with the management capability of Chinese public and private firms beg for opportunities abroad. These arrangements also seek to challenge the U.S. hegemony.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby ldev » 14 Nov 2016 22:17

Malacca harbour plan raises questions about China's strategic aims

China is building yet another port and reclaiming 3 islands in the Malacca straits in a joint venture with Malaysia. The Singapore Straits Time wonders whether the real objective is military given that there is enough civilian capacity in the existing ports in Malaysia as well as Singapore.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 15 Nov 2016 11:29

China insists on NPT for NSG entry - Atul Aneja, The Hindu
China on Monday obliquely criticised the India-Japan agreement on nuclear energy, pointing out that all countries were entitled to peaceful use of atomic energy so long as they followed “the international nuclear non-proliferation regime.”

“With regard to the nuclear agreement signed between India and Japan..., we believe that under the promise of absorbing the international obligation of nuclear non-proliferation, all countries are entitled to the peaceful use of nuclear energy,” Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang said at his regular briefing. “At the same time, the relevant cooperation should be conducive to safeguarding the authority and effectiveness of the international nuclear non-proliferation regime.”


China maintains the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which India has not signed, is essential to prevent the spread of atomic weapons.

In a separate statement, the Foreign Ministry commented on the November 11 meeting of the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) in Vienna. The meeting, which discussed the two-step intergovernmental process to address the issue of non-NPT states’ participation, follows India’s bid to become a full member of the 48-nation NSG. China has so far opposed India’s membership, citing the need for common criteria for all non-members, including Pakistan.

The statement said the Vienna meeting was held to discuss the “technical, legal and political aspects of non-NPT states’ participation in the NSG,” in accordance with the mandate adopted in June during the grouping’s meeting in Seoul. The meeting was a maiden attempt since the NSG’s inception in 1975 to formally take up non-NPT states’ participation “in an open and transparent manner.”

However, the statement reiterated China’s insistence on linking NSG membership to the NPT — a formulation that rules out India’s membership. “China maintains that any formula [for membership] worked out should be non-discriminatory and applicable to all non-NPT states; without prejudice to the core value of the NSG and the effectiveness, authority and integrity of the international non-proliferation regime with the NPT as its cornerstone; and without contradicting the customary international law in the field of non-proliferation.”


India has underscored that NPT membership is not essential for joining the NSG, as was the case with France. Highly placed sources said that at the talks with the Chinese, India insisted that the NSG was not a non-proliferation, but an “export control,” mechanism. Therefore, India’s NSG bid should be de-linked from the criterion of NPT membership.

‘Good beginning’


The Foreign Ministry said: “The meeting marks a good beginning of the two-step inter-governmental process launched by the Group.” It added that the first step for membership was the evolution of a “formula,” which would be followed by a second step which would be “country-specific.”

“China supports the continuation of this open and transparent inter-governmental process, in accordance with the relevant rules of the Group, and to ensure a solid first step taken towards an early formula on the...issue so that the Group can proceed to the second step of taking up country-specific membership application by non-NPT states at an early date.”

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Viv S » 15 Nov 2016 19:34

X-Posting. Have there been previous trilateral conferences involving Russia, China & Pakistan?

Russia, Pakistan and China to hold talks on Afghanistan - The News

MOSCOW: Russia will hold a series of trilateral talks on Afghanistan next month, its foreign ministry said Monday, as Moscow plans to establish a wider regional partnership on the issue.

Zamir Kabulov, director of the Second Asian Department, told RIA Novosti the next consultation on Afghanistan would take place between Russia, China and Pakistan.

"We are discussing this with the Chinese, the Iranians, Indians, Pakistanis. There is work on specifics… For example, we are planning the next Russian-Chinese-Pakistani consultations in December. They will be held in Moscow," said Kabulov.

The development comes amid a series of massive assaults in Afghanistan by the Taliban, the latest one on the German consulate in Mazar-eSharif, as the militant group refuses to surrender the Afghan government.

The Taliban said the bombing late Thursday, which tore a massive crater in the road and overturned cars, was a "revenge attack" for US air strikes this month in the volatile province of Kunduz that left 32 civilians dead.

The Quadrilateral Group, consisting of Pakistan, China, Afghanistan and the United States, had gained little success in brokering peace talks between Kabul and the militant group.

The peace talks, however, collapsed after a US drone strike killed Taliban leader Mullah Akhtar Mansour in Balochistan in May this year. It wasn’t until September the Afghan government held secret peace talks with the militant group.

The Guardian had reported that a senior American diplomat was present in the meetings in Qatar, where the Islamist group has a diplomatic office. No Pakistani official took part in the latest talks, according to the Guardian, which cited Taliban sources.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 16 Nov 2016 08:41

Eye on China, Manohar Parrikar to visit Bangladesh to bolster defence cooperation - Rajat Pandit, ToI
India is dispatching defence minister Manohar Parrikar to Dhaka later this month to chalk out a major upgrade in bilateral defence cooperation in the backdrop of China continuing to expand its strategic footprint in Bangladesh.

Government sources said on Tuesday that a new defence cooperation framework, which will lead to stepped-up military supplies, technology transfer, training and joint exercises as well as closer cooperation in counter-terrorism, will be discussed during Parrikar's two-day visit to Bangladesh from November 30.

"It is likely to be inked when Bangladesh PM Sheikh Hasina visits India in December. Incidentally, Parrikar will be the first Indian defence minister to visit Bangladesh in years," said a source.


The visit comes soon after Bangladesh took delivery of its first-ever submarines from China on Monday. The two diesel-electric submarines, handed over to Bangladesh Navy chief Admiral Mohammad Nizamuddin Ahmed at the Dalian seaport of Liaoning province in China, is a big indicator of the extensive military ties being forged between Dhaka and Beijing.

In mid-October, Xi Jinping also became the first Chinese president in 30 years to visit Bangladesh, which led to 27 deals worth $25 billion being inked. India, of course, can neither match China's economic muscle nor its domestic defence industrial base.

But India is trying to counter China's inroads into its neighbourhood, ranging from Sri Lanka, Maldives, Seychelles and Mauritius to Bangladesh, Myanmar and Nepal. Apart from supplying air defence guns, radars and mine-protected vehicles to Sri Lanka, for instance, India is also constructing two naval offshore patrol vessels (OPVs) for the island nation now.

"Similarly, India can supply OPVs to Bangladesh through innovative financing mechanisms. The training of Bangladeshi personnel in Indian military establishments will also be increased under the overall capacity-building," said the source.


The sixth edition of the India-Bangladesh joint military exercise "Sampriti" is also currently underway at Tangail in Dhaka. "With the focus being on counter-terrorism, the exercise will boost interoperability between the two armies. Regular naval and air force exercises will also be on the agenda now," said the source.

India's ties with Bangladesh are certainly once again on upward trajectory now under Sheikh Hasina's leadership. The two have backed each other on terrorist attacks on their soils, with Dhaka supporting New Delhi's stand on boycotting the SAARC summit in Islamabad.

India was also relieved at Bangladesh's move to scrap China's bid to construct the Sonadia deep-sea port at Cox's Bazaar earlier this year. But China has several other projects underway in Bangladesh, which also supports the former's "One Belt, One Road" initiative.

India, on its part, has actively worked towards bolstering ties with Bangladesh over the last three-four years, with one of the main objectives being the need for the two to `resolutely' tackle terrorism together.

India has also been holding direct Army-to-Army staff talks with Bangladesh since 2009. The importance of the talks can be gauged from the fact that India has similar staff talks with just a handful of countries, which include US, UK, Israel, France, Japan, Australia, Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby prashanth » 16 Nov 2016 14:14

SSridhar wrote:
The visit comes soon after Bangladesh took delivery of its first-ever submarines from China on Monday. The two diesel-electric submarines, handed over to Bangladesh Navy chief Admiral Mohammad Nizamuddin Ahmed at the Dalian seaport of Liaoning province in China, is a big indicator of the extensive military ties being forged between Dhaka and Beijing.



Looks like an attempt by PRC to keep track of movements of INS Arihant and follow on subs in bay of bengal.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 16 Nov 2016 14:15

Viv S wrote:Russia, Pakistan and China to hold talks on Afghanistan - The News

Have there been previous trilateral conferences involving Russia, China & Pakistan?

No, AFAIK.

I will post the following in the Afghan thread too but some parts of it are relevant to the above development.

In early 2016, a Quadrilateral Coordination Group (QCG) of Afghanistan, China, Pakistan and the United States on Afghan Peace and reconciliation process was setup but the flux in the Taliban ranks after the announcement of Mullah Omar’s death and the opposition to the elevation of ISI-sponsored Mansour to Emirship led to non-participation in the first meeting in January 2016. The third round of the QCG was held in Islamabad on February 6, 2016 and it was announced that direct talks between Kabul and the Taliban would be held by the end of that month. The next meeting of the QCG was planned for the 23rd of February.

Hiwever, the Mansour-led Taliban group laid down pre-conditions for resumption of talks, such as stopping all attacks on them and withdrawal of all ISAF troops. A statement by its spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said the Taliban “reject” peace talks and that reports of their participation were “rumours.” It also said “(Islamic emirate) once again reiterates that unless the occupation of Afghanistan is ended, blacklists eliminated and innocent prisoners freed, such futile misleading negotiations will not bear any results”. Earlier, the Pakistani Foreign Advisor Sartaj Aziz had claimed that Pakistan could deny the Taliban access to their families, medical facilities, etc, if the group was not willing to partake in the peace negotiations. He even posited that the leadership could be expelled from Pakistan if they failed to comply; this was the first time ever such a threat was publicly made by a senior official of Pakistan. Sartaj Aziz had thereby admitted that the Taliban leadership resided in Pakistan, a long-known open secret.

The Taliban had concluded that they were having an upper hand and could dictate terms. This assessment was proved correct when the Taliban kicked off their annual Spring Offensive (what the Taliban leadership council, Rahbari Shura called like a regular military operation, as ‘Operation Omari’ in honour of Mullah Omar)on April 19, 2016 with a bloody truck-bomb attack with hundreds of kilogrammes of explosives on an elite division of the Afghan National Army in central Kabul killing 37 and wounding 300 more. This came after the brief take-over of Kunduz about six months earlier in September, 2015 and many significant attacks around the country even during the winter.

The Afghan-Pakistan relationship, already under much strain, nosedived. So was the case with the US-Pakistan relationship. In his address to a joint session of the Afghan Parliament after the attack, Pres. Ghani termed the attacks as “undeclared war” which “ is not a civil war, but a war waged by terrorists and their regional supporters against our country”. Referring to the unfulfilled promise made by Pakistan to bring around the Taliban to the negotiating table, Pres. Ghani said, “Those who have failed to implement their commitments within this international framework or have been unwilling to implement them, are isolated more than ever today”. The Presidential Spokesman had been blunt earlier saying, “Pakistan is in a state of isolation. We want to use diplomatic initiatives to isolate Pakistan at the regional and international levels and to tell the world community where the terrorists are and which country and intelligence (agency) supports them.” Pakistan which was already deporting the Afghan refugees, began to detain a large number of Afghan Pashtuns and the rift between the two countries widened.

Simultaneously, the US State Department said, “We have consistently expressed our concerns at the highest level of the Government of Pakistan about their continued tolerance for Afghan Taliban groups such as the Haqqani Network operating from Pakistani soil. And we did again – after this week’s attack [April 19, 2016 Kabul Attack] we have pressed the Government of Pakistan to follow up on its expressed commitment not to discriminate between terror groups regardless of their agenda or their affiliation by undertaking concrete action against the Haqqanis.” Ultimately, the US Congress in late April 2016, put its foot down on the sale of eight F-16 aircraft to Pakistan under US aid by asking it to pay the entire cost of USD 770 million. In early August 2016, the US Secretary of Defence, Ash Carter, said that the Pentagon would not pay Pakistan USD 300 Million under Coalition Support Fund (CSF) because he could not certify that Pakistan has taken sufficient action against the Haqqani network.

On May 21, 2016, the US State Department said that a drone had killed the Emir of Taliban Mullah Akhtar Mansour in a remote area in Balochistan in the Pakistan-Afghanistan border. Amidst all these, a fierce clash erupted between the ANA and the Pakistani Rangers at Torkham border crossing in mid-June 2016 as Pakistan began constructing a border checkpost there to which the Afghans objected claiming that they did not recognize the Durand Line and hence would not allow Pakistan to construct anything there. Both sides mobilized heavily as fierce shelling continued for a few days before eventually ceasefire could be effected. A Pakistani Major was killed while Afghanistan lost three soldiers.

The QCG was buried at this point.

On July 18 (– 22), a Taliban delegation, led by Abbas Stanakzai (a trusted lieutenant of the slain Taliban Emir Mansour Akhtar), had visited Beijing at China’s invitation and later a Taliban spokesman said “We wanted the Chinese leadership to help us raise these issues on world forums and help us get freedom from occupying forces.”. In early August 2016, China and Afghanistan held their first strategic military dialogue led by Gen. Fang Fenghui, member of China's Central Military Commission (CMC), and Gen. Qadam Shah Shahim, chief of general staff of the Afghan National Army. After that new military quadrilateral mechanism involving China, Tajikistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan was established, which was more targeted towards Central Asia. In the meanwhile, China announced that the Afghan QCG had gone defunct, after the killing of Taliban Emir Akhtar Mansour. China claimed that the involvement of Tajikistan was to plug the hole that existed for Islamist terrorists between Xinjiang & Tajikistan and Tajikistan & Afghanistan, trying to assuage Russia for its omission. Effectively, the USA was shunted out of the earlier QCG.

An alternative QCG was expected and seems to be developing in the form of China, Russia, Pakistan & Afghanistan. Whether it could achieve anything without the gorilla sitting in Afghanistan with almost 10000 soldiers is a moot point. With a new administration in the US coming in, we will have to wait for another six months for clarity from them. This period may be crucial for the Taliban as well as for the new QCG to consolidate.But, Afghanistan is slipping out of Pakistan's clasp is my estimation.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 16 Nov 2016 15:36

U.S. could join China’s ‘Belt and Road’ initiative - Atul Aneja, The Hindu
The head of China-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), Jin Liqun, has signalled that the United States under President-elect Donald Trump could reverse its decision not to join the lender — a move that could pave the way for Washington’s broader acceptance of Beijing’s One Belt One Road (OBOR) connectivity initiative across the Eurasian region.

The AIIB is widely viewed as part of a new global financial architecture, and is expected to back infrastructure projects in Asia that are part of OBOR.

U.S. could join AIIB


In an interview with the official People’s Daily , Mr. Jin said: “I have heard a certain senior official of the President Barack Obama speak good of the AIIB and after Donald Trump won, I was told that many in his team have an opinion that Obama was not right not to join the AIIB, specially after Canada joined, which was a very loud endorsement of the bank. So we can’t rule out the new government in U.S. endorsing the AIIB or indicating interest to join as member.” A separate article in the same publication quoted individuals — supposedly part of the Trump camp — as telling that the U.S. embrace of OBOR under the newly elected President could be on the cards, in case Beijing agreed not to the alter the status quo in the Asia-Pacific. The daily pointed to a November 10 article by former CIA director James Woolsey, who is part of Mr. Trump’s inner-circle, titled, “Under Donald Trump, the U.S. will accept China’s rise — as long as it doesn’t challenge the status quo .”

China’s leadership role

According to the People’s Daily , “Woolsey recognised China’s leadership role, but also said that the balance of power in Asia depends on America’s strength”.

It added: “He [Mr. Woolsey] called U.S. opposition to the formation of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank ‘a strategic mistake,’ and said that the new administration should warm up to the ‘Belt and Road’ initiative. He expressed hope for a new agreement between the two sides.”

The daily also carried an article by Nicholas Rosellini, the China head of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), extolling the OBOR’s potential to positively change the international landscape.

Mr. Rosellini highlighted that the “ambitious ‘Belt and Road’ Initiative, potentially the world’s largest economic corridor, is part of a new trend and an innovative contribution to global governance. It represents an opportunity to build a shared vision for common prosperity through regional cooperation, and could act as an accelerator for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).”

Mr. Rosellini also said that the Chinese initiative “aims to foster trade, financial integration, and people-to-people bonds, while promoting inclusiveness and win-win cooperation — hence reshaping the landscape of international cooperation.”

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 17 Nov 2016 06:53

Modi’s China policy is on the right track, says US expert - M.Ramesh, Business Line
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s China policy is on the right track, says John Garver, a China expert at the Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, the US. He invoked the 5th century Roman axiom, si vis pacem, para bellum, which means ‘if you want peace, prepare for war’, to justify India forming military deals with other countries.

Garver, an Emeritus Professor the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs at the Georgia Tech, was in Chennai to interact with members of the think-tank Chennai Centre for China Studies. His comments came in the context of India forming military agreements with the US, and more recently with Japan, in what is seen as a move to balance China’s military might.

In China’s perspective, it wants to rise as a global superpower while being friendly and co-operative with all countries, including with those it has geo-political issues such as Japan and Taiwan, said Garver, a fluent Mandarin speaker and author of 11 China-centric books. It does not want confrontation with anyone, he said.

However, India would not want to leave its future predicated on China’s good faith, Garver said later, in a chat with Business Line. The best chance for peace is to prevent China from going the same road that Germany and Japan did before World War II.

Modi and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe realise that the way to peace with China is to be strong. Garver summed up the philosophy behind the approach saying, “You can’t pick us one-by-one, we are going to hang together.” It is not good if any one country grows in a “vacuum of power”, he said.

He said that the US foreign policy was to create multiple strong powers in Asia to deter war. As part of that, the country wants to encourage India to grow into a strong power. “There is no secret about that,” he said. He observed that Japan was more of a pacifist whereas India imagines itself to be a power and acts like one.


‘Ganging up’

The professor observed that since China believes it wants to grow peacefully with friendship with all countries, it is irritated by India’s moves which it sees as India “ganging up” against it. He said India was very much an interventionist, trying to put spokes in China growing close with India’s neighbours such as Sri Lanka and Bangladesh. China doesn’t like it and sees it as India’s hegemony, he said.

Garver, who said he was on a mission to find out how the Indian public saw the rise of China and the growing co-operation between India and the US in the context of China’s rise, said that the question was whether India would kow-tow China in order not to antagonise it, or resist it.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 17 Nov 2016 07:23

China denies visa to Indian badminton team's manager Bamang Tago - ToI
Arunachal Pradesh State Badminton Association secretary Bamang Tago, who was nominated manager of the Indian badminton team for the ongoing Thaihot China Open championship 2016 in Fuzhou, has been denied visa by China.

The Chinese embassy in Delhi informed Tago that he had not yet been given a visa because of his Arunachal domicile. Tago was to lead a team of 14, including players and officials, at the Thaihot China Open 2016 from November 15.

While the Indian shuttlers completed their first-round matches on Wednesday, Tago was running from pillar to post for a visa and met junior home minister Kiren Rijiju on Wednesday.

The Thaihot China Open is among the super series calendar events of the Badminton World Federation. The team was invited by the Fuzhou Municipal Sports Bureau.

"The Badminton Association of India (BAI) had submitted all relevant documents of the Indian contingent at the Chinese Embassy several weeks ago for visa. All the 13 members got their visas and left for Fuzhou on November 12 but for the manager," said Tago.

When BAI official Anand Kare inquired about the denial of visa on November 14, the embassy said "it needs approval from China".

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Prem » 17 Nov 2016 09:33

Donald Trump wants to increase America’s military force in the Asia-Pacific
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/business/ ... 34bad04ee1

DONALD Trump’s administration has given its strongest indication yet that the United States will increase America’s military force against China.Rudy Giuliani, the president-elect’s frontrunner for secretary of state, has revealed Mr Trump intends to prioritise building a “gigantic” military force to overthrow China’s ambitions in the Pacific.Speaking to global business leaders in Washington yesterday, Mr Giuliani said the United States would raise its number of troops to 550,000, instead of shrinking it to 420,000.He also said they intended to take their navy up to 350 ships, instead of going down to 247. It currently has around 280.He said the expansion would allow the US to fight a “two-ocean war”.
This presents a more assertive foreign policy than the world ever heard from Mr Trump in the lead-up to election with regards to China.While the South China Sea remains one of the world’s most tense geopolitical regions, the celebrity billionaire was careful to keep his remarks on it to a minimum in the lead-up to the US election.“It’s likely that America will have a lot more military muscle under his presidency,” said Macquarie University Security Studies analyst Adam Lockyer. “While we can’t get ahead of ourselves, much of that will likely go into the Asia-Pacific region, because China’s a major challenger.“On one hand they’re paying less diplomatic and critical attention to the region, but on the other they’re building more military presence in the region.”
The Trump administration will face significant financial hurdles if it does take on this ambitious military program.Asia-Pacific security expert Jingdong Yuan from the Centre For International Security Studies told news.com.au said it was achievable. He said Mr Trump will be able to work with the Republican-controlled Congress to do away with the sequester process that automatically cut $500 billion in defence over a decade.Dr Yuan says Washington and Beijing ultimately need to work together.But it could be relatively difficult for the incoming government to direct too much of its financial focus to defence.“US defence spending as a percentage of GDP and government spending is at a historical low, especially after the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq,” said Dr Yuan.“At the same time, entitlement spending, such as social security and medicare cannot be cut, and increase year by year, and federal government deficits of over $18-19 trillion make it difficult to spend more in discretionary areas such as defence.
“So Trump need to find the money to support his ambitious military programs. We will see.”He also said that neither the United States nor China are being realistic when it comes down to it.“Beijing and Washington will have to work on their differences while at the same time work together on things they both agree.“This is a very complex relationship and neither America’s will to remain predominant nor China’s desire for a Sino-centric order in Asia are realistic.“Indeed, if they both pursue these extreme goals, conflict will become more likely and it will be deeply destabilising for the region — Australia included.”

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 19 Nov 2016 08:56

http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/tp-national/arunachal-officer-withdrew-visa-plea-says-china/article9363060.ece - Atul Aneja, The Hindu
The Chinese Foreign Ministry on Friday added a new twist to the controversy surrounding the alleged denial of visa to the manager of a visiting Indian badminton team to China from Arunachal Pradesh, by pointing out that his application had been withdrawn.

In response to a question regarding the issue, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman, Geng Shuang said: “What you said does not comply with the facts.”

He added: “According to what we learnt that the person you have mentioned had previously gone to the Chinese embassy in India for visa application but later he himself cancelled the visa application.

Bamang Tago had applied for a visa at the Chinese embassy in New Delhi in order to accompany an Indian badminton team to Fuzhou for the ongoing China Super Series Premier badminton tournament.

Mr. Tago is also the secretary of Arunachal Pradesh Badminton Association.

Mr. Geng said China pursued a “flexible” approach to visa applicants hailing from Arunachal Pradesh. “The way China issues visa to people is a flexible approach to facilitate exchanges between the two sides.” {No, we don't want any flexible approach. Let it be a normal approach}

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 19 Nov 2016 14:11

Attended a conference yesterday by Chennai Chapter of China Studies (C3S) in association with National Maritime Foundation, Chennai Chapter and the Deptt. of Strategic Studies, Madras University on "Current Developments in China: Regional Implications on Security & Stability".

I give below the salient points made by different speakers.

Theme address by Rear Admiral Sudhir Pillay, CI, Navy, DSSC, Wellington
The 2008 financial crisis, the seeming failure of Washington Consensus (Bretton Woods policies) and the seeming vindication of the Beijing Consensus (alternate to Washington Consensus and based on Chinese political & economic policies) appears to have greatly emboldened the Chinese ruling elite including a veritable behavioural shift that became manifest later.
The Sino-Pakistan Entente since 1962
China’s increasing heft in maritime order
The US naval challenge (China is weak vis-à-vis US and will remain so for 30 years)


Dr. John Garver, Emeritus Professor, Sam Nunn School, Georgia Instt. of Technology
In India to study India’s thoughts on China.
Countries around the region are still trying to assess how to respond to China’s rise. Traditional American strategy was to nurture China hoping it would be a partner. But, it hasn’t happened.
Chinese naval strategists are enamoured of the US naval strategist Mahan. Chinese naval strategy is to be powerful enough to ward off the USN for at least 3 weeks or so around Taiwan in order to occupy it. Many in China believe that it is a benevolent power, Pax Sinica.
Traditional powers are exiting leaving the space for China.
4 key strategies.
The Chinese studied the rise & fall of great powers and concluded that hegemonic powers failed. They want to exhaust & confuse the US and make a tired US exit Asia.
The Chinese are deeply apprehensive of Japanese military power.
The second Chinese strategy is win-win. To purchase friendship, development, supply infrastructure.
The third strategy is to separate economic cooperation from strategic rivalry. Ex. Taiwan, Japan, US, India.
The fourth strategy is sea-power. Chinese believe in Mahan’s strategy. Fleets, commerce & bases. China is historically not a sea-power.

Dr. Lawrence Prabhakar, Asst. Professor, Deptt of Political Science, Madras Christian College
Indians view China from Continental & Maritime geopolitics.
Confucius-Menicus formulation that complements Sun Tzu.
Middle-Kingdom Complex
The concept of “Shi”.
“3M strategy” – Militray, Multilateralism, Multipolarity
China does not really want US to exit Asia because it is calming down the nuclear ambitions of Japan & Korea.
Encircling rising powers, India & Japan.
Encouraging brinkmanship states like Pakistan, North Korea, Iran etc.
Enmeshing Africa for natural resources.
There is a ‘Gestalt’ [Garver 2002] See for example, this
Parabellum paradigm
Defeat the adversaries without firing a shot.

Dr. M.Venkatraman, Asst. Prof., Deptt of Strategic Studies, Univ. of Madras
China’s military modernization
Deng Xiao Ping launched 4 changes: Agriculture, Industry, S&T, Military modernizations
Historically CCP & PLA have had estrangements.
Reliance on the military to maintain order domestically: Coup to dislodge Gang of Four, Tienanmen Square etc.
Liu Huaqing formula – three island chains

Claude Arpi, Geopolitics Expert, Pondicherry
China’s core interest in Tibet. Can India play Tibet card?
India must also have a ‘core issue’, that is Tibet.
The main source of Tibetan culture is Indian.
Until 1954, the Foreign Bureau of Tibetan Govt in Lhasa was dealing directly with MEA, New Delhi. It was after the Panchasheel Agreement that India started talking to Lhasa through Beijing.
In c. 2016, China passed a law that all infrastructure into Tibet must follow military standard which means that the military would immediately be able to use it. Dual purpose.
The Dalai Lama is clear that Tawang is part of India. The exiled Tibet government in Dharmasala has to similarly make clear of its position about the Central sector.
People migrated from Demchok into China recently because there were not much civil works. Recent Demchok irrigation canal work in the face of PLA’s opposition is good. India stood its ground for the first time. Last year 74 people from Indian side moved into the China side because of lack of infrastructure.
Minsar enclave in Tibet near Kailash belonged to J&K and was given away silently by Nehru without informing the Parliament.

Cmde. R.S. Vasan IN (Retd) (who is also the Director of the Chennai Centre for China Studies)
Changing Contours of regional maritime dynamics
Change of tack by Duterte suddenly.
Malaysia following Duterte? ASEAN losing voice?
Pivot to Asia under threat?
Options & Expectations for USA
-Trade Wars?
-Withdrawal from Pacific?
-Increasing engagement with ASEAN & India
India’s Options
-Maintain strategic economy (no need for join patrols)
-Chahbahar is a priority
-Need for engagement with CAR
-Continue to oppose CPEC and play Baloch card.
-Engage with all land & maritime neighbours
China’s Options
-‘Wait & Watch’ policy (very patient)
-Build clout with ASEAN countries.
-ADIZ
India continues to be a challenge to China
There won’t be a strategic military alliance with the US.

Air Marshal Matheswaran (Retd)
Doctrinal rethinking 1975 Deng Xiaoping
The 1985 Vietnam War was to show the mirror to PLA by the CMC (Deng) that they were up to no good and need to change.

Col. Hariharan (Retd) MI
China’s Counter-terrorism Discourse


The day long programme was well attended (almost a hundred people including students) and interesting questions were asked/discussed. I have seeded BR in some of the attendees. Some others (speakers & others) were aware of BR and said they visit us now and then.

The Russian Consul General also attended the programme. When I asked him about the increasing proximity between Russia & Pakistan, he said that Russia must develop contacts with everyone in order to secure itself from various terror groups. When a member of the audience made a comment about thousands of cyber attacks from China on India, he asked him for 'proof' !! Later, he told me that the Chinese do not know English and therefore the claim that thousands of hackers are employed by PLA (Units 61398 & 61486) cannot be true. Another participant tried to explain the growing Russia-Pakistan nexus to the detriment of India by saying that Russian scholars had told her during her recent visit there that Russia wanted to show to India that if it can move away from it to the US, it can also do so by getting closer to Pakistan. The Consul was vigorously muttering 'NO'.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby panduranghari » 19 Nov 2016 15:48

^Thanks for a excellent summary.

Learnt something new today;

Parabellum Paradigm
Brief summary
: Johnston sees strategic culture as a shared set of ranked preferences for
offensive versus defensive and accommodationist strategies. For culture to exist these
preferences have to be consistent over time and across situations. Johnston isolates
Chinese strategic culture from the
Seven Military Classics
. While he acknowledges that
there are two strands of Chinese strategic thought (the Confucian-Mencian paradigm,
which privileges accommodationist, nonviolent strategies for dealing with conflict, and
the parabellum paradigm which emphasizes offensive strategies and
quan bian
, or
absolute flexibility and sensitivity to changing relative capabilities), Johnston argues that
his corpus shows a preference for parabellum strategic culture. He then assumes that
since the military have been reading the
Seven Military Classics
since the dawn of the
Chinese civilization and study them even today, Chinese strategic culture has remained
unchanged. Johnston argues that when leaders are socialized in a parabellum strategic
culture, their behavior will reflect the features of this strategic culture and they will
exhibit a preference for offensive over defensive and accommodationist strategies. The
test is provided by examining the writings of Mao Zedong on nature of conflict (zero
sum), the nature of the enemy (conceived in class terms), and the role of conflict (violent
struggle not only necessary but desirable). Johnston argues that Chinese conflict behavior
under Mao exhibited the offensive characteristics of parabellum culture. He concludes by
arguing that ideas, norms, and culture engender and make meaningful structures which
could be either anarchic (in the case of realpolitik) or institutionalized (idealpolik).
Realpolitik and idealpolitik behavior flow from these structures. Behavior in turn
influences culture, resulting in a circular model

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby svinayak » 20 Nov 2016 00:59

http://www.dailyprogress.com/news/busin ... 92b33.html

Xi said that China has contributed to 40 percent of global growth since the global financial crisis. China's economy is now cooling as it seeks to rebalance growth away from exports to more domestic sources of growth, but it remains an engine of global growth.

Xi said that more than 700 million Chinese tourists will fan out across the globe in coming years and the country will invest billions abroad.


China is trying to hijack all multilateral forums
It sees both Russia and US weak and unable to handle the global changes.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Prem » 20 Nov 2016 02:19

svinayak wrote:http://www.dailyprogress.com/news/business/wire/the-latest-china-promotes--nation-trade-agreement/article_d1def315-9eca-5712-9414-380c8ea92b33.html
Xi said that China has contributed to 40 percent of global growth since the global financial crisis. China's economy is now cooling as it seeks to rebalance growth away from exports to more domestic sources of growth, but it remains an engine of global growth.Xi said that more than 700 million Chinese tourists will fan out across the globe in coming years and the country will invest billions abroad.


China is trying to hijack all multilateral forumsIt sees both Russia and US weak and unable to handle the global changes.


It won't work as they have limited soft power and hard power will soon wane way because their economic strength depend on their adversaries. PRC have at max 10- years of belligerence and then back to normal.To Their luck ,Chinese have to live with huge nation like India in the neighborhhod which they can't dominate. Superpower England separated itself from Eurotoons , US have no no such neighbor and Russia had SU and no wonder WEST tried best to block Russia connecting with India which could have produced real planetary SUPERSUPERPower.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 20 Nov 2016 15:17

svinayak wrote:China is trying to hijack all multilateral forums
It sees both Russia and US weak and unable to handle the global changes.

In the last three decades, China has almost never reconciled from any position that it took. Other countries have adjusted themselves to China's demands, posture and diktats. There are very few occasions where others have stood up to China's hegemony. It has bribed, coerced, massaged others into submission.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby svinayak » 21 Nov 2016 06:30

SSridhar wrote:
svinayak wrote:China is trying to hijack all multilateral forums
It sees both Russia and US weak and unable to handle the global changes.

In the last three decades, China has almost never reconciled from any position that it took. Other countries have adjusted themselves to China's demands, posture and diktats. There are very few occasions where others have stood up to China's hegemony. It has bribed, coerced, massaged others into submission.

China was supported by state support of US behind and other European allies from 1978 when China started the economic reforms
This was meant to make Soviet come down in the economic and political influence globally.

Now PRC does not have that support since it is already in the global scene. China has gone rogue and has ambitions beyond its needs.
Now India will have to focus on Indian interest and seek support globally.
India has a legitimate right in all these international regimes and also has lot of support.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 21 Nov 2016 13:10

Post G-20, China sees India as partner to boost global economy - Atul Aneja, The Hindu
Taking cue from the G-20 summit in Hangzhou, China is advocating greater participation of the Global South and the emerging countries in the world economy, including closer ties between Beijing and New Delhi.

At a major brainstorming exercise marshalled by the Communist Party of China (CPC), several speakers recognised that western economies were avoiding structural reforms, which were necessary to revive an anaemic global economy.

The two-day intensive exercise in Chongqing, a booming city on banks of the Yangtze river, included invitees from major national and international think-tanks, as well as political parties across a wide cross-section of the globe.

Two separate sessions focussed on Africa and countries along the Mekong River, signalling China’s intent to include the Global South in its blueprint to lift the global economy.

Many participants proposed a pervasive economic engagement between China and India to help bring about a global turnaround.

“If you look at the economic perspective, China and India are complementary to each other. There is immense scope to enhance cooperation,” observed Lin Yifu, former Vice-President of the World Bank.

Quick revival unlikely

Aware of the headwinds, Mr. Lin was bearish about a quick revival of major western economies, citing their fear of structural reforms. “I am more on the pessimistic side. It is very hard for the major economies to carry out the necessary structural reforms because it means short-term constrictions, slowdown in the economy and increase in unemployment,” said the former multilateral banker.

Amar Bhattacharya, a senior fellow with the Brookings Institution also concurred. He told The Hindu that once the no-go areas were clarified, there was immense scope for scaling up the India-China economic partnership.

“Please do not forget the big picture that by 2050 they [China] will be the first and we [India] will be the second largest economies in the world, with very complementary type of demographic and supply chain structures,” he said.


However, Dr. Bhattacharya stressed that India should insist on a long-haul relationship with China, focussed on joint ventures, allowing India’s “smart engineers” to absorb advanced technology.

“The biggest thing India can learn from China is in the arena of infrastructure. They [the Chinese] are a powerhouse of infrastructure,” he said, adding that construction and high-speed railways should become flagships for tie-ups in the infra sector.


“These are two countries to learn from in the construction industry — Turkey and China. South Korea has already moved to a higher league,” he said.

The U.S.-based academic highlighted that collaboration in high-speed railways was promising as it would not be hampered by the availability of land — a chronic problem confronting foreign investors seeking avenues in India’s manufacturing sector.

Dr. Bhattacharya also said that India should build solid economic foundations with China, which, he said, would reinforce strong mutual interest. “That would also help us manage our differences. Pakistan as a factor in Sino-Indian ties would gradually recede to the background”.

Integrated supply chain

Gopal Krishna Agarwal, a BJP national executive member, praised the integrated supply chain China had established, based on seamless connectivity. “China has integrated its highways railways, metros and airways. The resulting fast supply chain is China’s strength from which we can learn,” he observed.

Other participants, including Liu Yunshan, a member of the powerful Politburo of CPC Standing Committee, said geo-political and related factors were also dragging down the global economy. He cited the “refugee crisis, climate change and terrorism {It certainly does not include terrorism emanating from Pakistan and directed towards India at all} as some of the factors undermining growth.

Consequently, the Chongqing conclave called for re-defining the rules of economic governance, which, should equally focus on non-economic factors hampering revival. “Usually, when we say global governance, we refer to global economic governance, which is also the focus of this dialogue. I believe, however, effective global governance can’t be founded on economics alone,” said Song Tao, head of the International Department of the CPC.

He said the international system must now aim at “comprehensive governance” that focussed on “cooperative and sustainable security” that would yield lasting political stability.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby pankajs » 21 Nov 2016 21:16

SSridhar wrote:Post G-20, China sees India as partner to boost global economy - Atul Aneja, The Hindu
<snip>
At a major brainstorming exercise marshalled by the Communist Party of China (CPC), several speakers recognised that western economies were avoiding structural reforms, which were necessary to revive an anaemic global economy. {The same is true of China. It too is avoiding structural reforms. It still far too dependent on Infrastructure sector and exports to power its growth.}
<snip>
Many participants proposed a pervasive economic engagement between China and India to help bring about a global turnaround. {Hell with Bestern markets anaemic, the only big under exploited market remains India. This sweet talk is about China being able to exploit the Indian market to power its exports.}

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 22 Nov 2016 13:55

India, China reiterate call to maintain border peace - The Hindu
The Chief of Army Staff, General Dalbir Singh, who is on a visit to China, and top Chinese military officials have reiterated their call to maintain peace and tranquillity along the India-China border, and to keep up the momentum of high-level military exchanges between the two countries.

General Singh on Monday called on General Xu Qiliang, Vice-Chairman of the powerful Central Military Commission (CMC).

General Singh had been earlier welcomed by General Li Zuocheng, Commander PLA Army, with a Guard of Honour.

“During the call-on, both of them reiterated their desire to keep up the momentum of defence exchanges and the need to keep the borders tranquil and peaceful,” said a press statement from the Indian embassy in Beijing.

During talks with Gen. Li, both sides welcomed the ongoing sixth India-China Joint Training Exercise ‘Hand-in-Hand’ 2016, in India. They also agreed to further expand defence exchanges between the two armies.

China has revamped the CMC on the watch of President Xi Jinping, who also heads the organisation. Fan Changlong, who had invited Gen. Singh and Gen. Xu are Vice Chairmen of the CMC.

Military reforms

China’s military reforms have also included formation of combat-focused theatre commands, capable of projecting force over longer distances, using integrated assets on land, sea, air and space.

General Singh, and four senior army officers accompanying him, will also visit Xian and Nanjing, where an interaction with General Liu Yuejun, Commander of the Eastern Theatre Command is planned. He will also visit other key military installations.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby RajeshA » 22 Nov 2016 17:13

Basically Modi has built good relations with the Gulf Countries. That is good as it neutralizes to some extent their negative effect of Islamizing.

Under Trump Presidency however, USA is going to take a hard U-Turn and could start revising its support to Saudi Arabia.

I expect China to move in into the region in a big way! It is up to India to neutralize this threat also! We would have to balance our alliances there!

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby panduranghari » 23 Nov 2016 19:24

Does China have the heft to manage taking over US role in West asia? I do not think they can even if they would want to. And which side will the pick? Shia or Sunni?

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 26 Nov 2016 05:01

Be mindful of our aspirations: India to tell China - ToI
India is looking for a "pragmatic" conversation with China on "how not accommodating each other's aspirations is not beneficial to the relationship". Speaking before a parliamentary panel foreign secretary S Jaishankar, however, asserted, "We need to have that conversation and we will have that conversation."

India-China relations have been in a trough for a while and have been exacerbated by several factors - Beijing's opposition to India's membership bid of the NSG; its refusal to allow UN sanctions against Masood Azhar of the JeM; its insistence on building the CPEC through Indian territory, among others.

Although in recent weeks, NSA Ajit Doval and his counterpart Yang Jieche met in Bangalore, its generally acknowledged a substantial gulf has emerged between the two countries. In 2016 itself, Prime Minister Narendra Modi met Chinese leader Xi Jinping several times, but an earlier cordiality has hardened into a more formal, distant relationship.

"I do not think we should be in denial of what is the problem that we are having with China right now," Jaishankar told the parliamentary panel examining India's use of its soft power attributes.

While an "NSG problem" cannot actually be resolved through soft power projection, but "I think an average American has an image of India which is much superior to what an average Chinese has of India. Therefore, clearly there is work to be done, there is soft power deficiency there which needs to be remedied".

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 27 Nov 2016 07:29

Rajapaksa’s visit part of the India-China ‘Great Game’ in Sri Lanka? - Meera Srinivasan, The Hindu
Former Sri Lankan President Mahinda Rajapaksa is on a week-long visit to China on the invitation of the Chinese government — a development that sections within the government and diplomatic circles here see as a “strong message” from Beijing.

The visit assumes further significance in the wake of controversial remarks made by Yi Xianliang, the Chinese Ambassador to Colombo, that pointed to apparent tensions between the Sri Lankan government and Beijing.


At a press conference here [Colombo], Mr. Yi asked why Colombo sought more loans from Beijing if it found them “expensive”, as the Sri Lankan Finance Minister had observed. While the Chinese Foreign Ministry defended the envoy, Sri Lanka’s Foreign Minister Mangala Samaraweera met Mr. Yi and “advised” him to take up such matters through Foreign Ministry channels rather than the media. {This was a few months back}

‘Uncharacteristic move’


A top source here, requesting anonymity, said that the incident — which was “uncharacteristic” of Chinese diplomacy — coupled with Mr. Rajapaksa’s trip to China, was a clear message from Beijing.

“Not just to our government, but also to New Delhi,” the senior official said, referring to competing strategic interests that the two powers are known to have in the island nation.

Mr. Rajapaksa, during his two terms in office, was widely perceived as being close to Beijing. With Chinese loans, he built a massive port and airport in the southern city of Hambantota, which the current government termed financially non-viable.

This invitation points to a public display of support, observers noted, weeks after pro-Rajapaksa actors floated a new political party and invited him to lead it. It also comes about a month after his brother and former Defence Secretary Gotabhaya Rajapaksa travelled to China to attend a defence seminar.

The former President’s political ally and Democratic Left Front Leader Vasudeva Nanayakkara said that by “inviting the former President, the Chinese government has shown how much they value the relationship with the former President and appreciate his political stature.”

When contacted, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said Mr. Rajapaksa was on a “private goodwill visit” on the invitation of the Chinese People’s Institute of Foreign Affairs, a state-backed thinktank. “President Rajapaksa made positive contributions to the development of China-Sri Lanka relations during his term of office. The Chinese side appreciates what he has done for the friendship between the two countries,” the Ministry told The Hindu .

Ahead of his departure, Mr. Rajapaksa told editors of select local newspapers that India had adopted a softer line with the new government though it had “sold the Hambantota port to the Chinese.”

Recalling the incident involving Chinese submarines that had docked at Colombo harbour in 2014, when he was in power, he said: “They [New Delhi] made a big issue about the submarines, but today even if you give the entire port [to China], it is not a problem for them [India]. This shows the difference in diplomatic relations.” Last month, Sri Lanka said it would sell 80 per cent of the $1.5-billion port in the southern city of Hambantota to a Chinese company to tackle the country’s debt burden.

( With inputs from Atul Aneja in Beijing )

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby DavidD » 27 Nov 2016 11:28

pankajs wrote:<snip>
At a major brainstorming exercise marshalled by the Communist Party of China (CPC), several speakers recognised that western economies were avoiding structural reforms, which were necessary to revive an anaemic global economy. {The same is true of China. It too is avoiding structural reforms. It still far too dependent on Infrastructure sector and exports to power its growth.}
<snip>
Many participants proposed a pervasive economic engagement between China and India to help bring about a global turnaround. {Hell with Bestern markets anaemic, the only big under exploited market remains India. This sweet talk is about China being able to exploit the Indian market to power its exports.}


Reforms don't happen overnight, it's the accumulation of many smaller steps, steps which I think many analysts are either missing or unable to piece into a greater whole. Both export and import have been on a downward trend for years now as the economy has increasingly become dependent on producing and consuming products within the country.

Image

As a result, consumption has been steaming ahead during that time, and surpassed manufacturing as the largest contributor to GDP growth for years now, and will achieve parity in the near future.

Image

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 28 Nov 2016 20:04

China lodges representations with Singapore over seizure of SAF armoured vehicles in Hong Kong - Straits Times
China has lodged representations with Singapore after Hong Kong customs seized Singapore Armed Forces (SAF) vehicles bound for the city state after a military exercise in Taiwan.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeman Geng Shuang said on Monday (Nov 28) that China has asked Singapore to "strictly abide by the laws of Hong Kong Special Administration Region (SAR), and cooperate with the SAR government on all necessary follow-ups."

"The Chinese government has always firmly opposed countries that have diplomatic ties with China to have any form of official exchanges with Taiwan, including military exchanges and cooperation," he said at a regular media briefing "We asked that the Singapore government strictly abide by the One-China principle," he added.

The protest by China comes after Hong Kong's customs officials seized nine SAF armoured vehicles and related equipment on board a container ship belonging to shipping firm APL.


The armoured vehicles covered with green tarpaulins in a Hong Kong Customs and Excise Department facility in Tuen Mun yesterday. Nine Terrex Infantry Carrier Vehicles were seized by Hong Kong Customs at a port on Wednesday. They were being shipped fr

The SAF conducts overseas training in a dozen or so territories and hires commercial shippers to transport military equipment to and from Singapore.

A report by Hong Kong’s FactWire news agency on Saturday claimed that the APL container ship had docked in Xiamen in mainland China before transiting in Hong Kong. The report claimed that the Hong Kong Customs and Excise Department was tipped off by its mainland counterparts about the nine SAF armoured vehicles, leading to their seizure in Hong Kong last Wednesday.

Neither China nor Hong Kong has confirmed the report.

Citing customs sources, the report said the city’s customs authority was told that the vessel did not have “approval notice” for the military vehicles. It said the shipment was discovered to have contained “undeclared military materials” when it stopped over at Xiamen’s Haitian Container Terminals after leaving Kaohsiung in south Taiwan.

Singapore's Ministry of Defence had said earlier that the cargo had “no ammunition or sensitive equipment on board”.

It is not known why the Xiamen customs authorities did not seize the vehicles but chose to tip off their Hong Kong counterparts instead.

When asked by The Straits Times about the report at the media briefing on Monday, Mr Geng said he had no further information.

The Xiamen customs department told The Straits Times it was not allowed to speak to foreign media, when asked if the APL ship did not produce the necessary paperwork for the clearance of the nine military vehicles.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 29 Nov 2016 16:41

China reveals it held secret combat drill with all its naval fleets in September - Shailaja Neelakantan, ToI
China has revealed that it held secret combat drills with all three of its naval fleets in September, but kept the exercise under wraps as it didn't want to provoke South Korea at a time when Seoul's ally, the US, hadn't yet decided on deploying the THAAD missile defense system, Chinese state-run media reported today.

The drill in the Yellow Sea and the Bohai Sea involved involved more than 100 vessels and several warplanes and involved China's South Sea, East Sea and North Sea fleets.

China was hoping South Korea would decide not to deploy the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense system, said Li Jie, a Beijing-based military expert, told the Global Times.

But on September 27, the US said it will deploy THAAD in South Korea on "an accelerated basis" and "as soon as possible".

China had conducted two other large-scale drills in the South and East China seas in July and August, which was earlier reported.

Meanwhile, Japan has set up a commission to examine the potential benefits of placing THAAD systems on its territory to increase its defense capabilities against a potential North Korean ballistic missile threat, Reuters reported last week.


China yesterday urged Japan to "act prudently in the military and security fields and avoid unsettling regional stability", the Chinese foreign ministry told the Global Times.

"We were concerned about the news reports. China's position on the deployment of the THAAD is very clear and remains unchanged," Geng Shuang, a spokesperson for the foreign ministry said.

Japan's military and security activities are watched closely by its Asian neighbours and the international community because of its history, he said.

"We hope Japan [will] play a constructive role in boosting regional peace and stability, and not to the contrary," said the spokesperson.

He called the current Korean Peninsula situation "complicated and sensitive."

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby adityadange » 30 Nov 2016 16:58

will an exercise involving 100 vessels go unnoticed by spy planes/satellites?

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 01 Dec 2016 20:03

India has urged China to change stand on Masood Azhar: Government - PTI
Government has urged China to reverse its technical hold on India's request, which is co- sponsored by several prominent countries, to get Masood Azhar designated as terrorist by the UN, Minister of State for External Affairs M J Akbar said today.

In a written reply in a question in the Rajya Sabha, Akbar said China has often repeated its concern on spread of terrorism and their desire to cooperate with India on this issue.

On several occasions, China has reiterated with India their resolute opposition to terrorism in all its forms and manifestations with "zero tolerance", and has agreed that there is no justification for terrorism.

"Government has consistently highlighted to China regarding the threat of cross border terrorism emanating from Pakistan and affecting the region, including India.

"Specifically, we have emphasised forcefully that while the Pakistan-based Jaish-e-Mohammed has been proscribed by the UNSC Sanctions Committee...for its well known terror activities and links to the Al Qaeda, the designation of JeM's main leader, financier and motivator Azhar has been repeatedly put on a technical hold.

"Accordingly, we have urged China to reverse its technical hold on India's request to list Azhar under 1267 provisions. India's request is co-sponsored by several prominent countries," the Minister added.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby adityadange » 01 Dec 2016 21:44

How about india introducing a proposal in UN to declare china as terrorist backing country? cite incidents where china has scuttled indian efforts. what could be reaction of other countries/china itself and napak?

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 02 Dec 2016 19:38

Indian Navy keeping a close eye on Chinese ships in Indian Ocean Region: Navy Chief - PTI
The Indian Navy today said it was aware of the deployment and movement of Chinese naval ships and submarines in the Indian Ocean region, and that it has "kept a close eye" on them.

Addressing the annual 'Naval Day' news conference here, Navy chief Sunil Lanba said a Chinese nuclear submarine was deployed in the Indian Ocean and it did a port call at Karachi harbour.

"As far as People's Liberation Army (PLA) Navy ships and submarines are concerned, the Indian Navy keeps a close eye and monitor their movements. We have maritime domain awareness of the deployment of PLA naval forces in the Indian Ocean region (IOR).

"We launch surveillance missions in the form of aircraft and ships to keep a track of them. They had started deployment of their submarines from 2012," he said.


The Navy also termed as "bogus" the claims made by Pakistan that an Indian submarine had entered into territorial waters.

"There was no Indian submarine deployed in the area where the Pakistani Navy is claiming it to be. As far as repelling a submarine of any nation goes, it is not an easy task and the claim made by Pakistani Navy is totally bogus. We deploy submarines where there is an operational necessity and we will continue to deploy them," Lanba said.

The Pakistani Navy had last month claimed that it had prevented an Indian submarine from entering its territorial water.

The Chief of Naval Staff said India's primary area of interest was the IOR followed by Strait of Bab el Mandeb and the Strait of Hormuz.

In response to a question on Indian Navy's capabilities in the Pacific region, Lanba said, "The Navy is well within its capabilities to operate in the region."

Lanba also sought to downplay the Bangladesh Navy acquiring its first submarines from China, saying "India has a plan in place that takes into account what is happening in the neighborhood."

When asked about the South China sea dispute, the Navy chief said maritime issues should be solved as per United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).

He added that the Kalavari Class Scorpene submarine will be commissioned next year.

"She has successfully finished dry trials and further trials are in progress," Lanba said.


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