Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby rsingh » 03 Jul 2017 17:43

Not a strategist, but I fail to understand few things. China ha less man and material facing our numerically superior troops. We are well equipped and trained. How come China keeps on provoking us? What is the game plan? Few points
-They are just bluffing. They think they can coerce us to get onboard their OBOR or CEPEC.
I do not think they can cow India like this. Their troops are their just to provoke and hold the territory. I think this is diversion. Real target is somewhere else.
- They want this to use as bargain chip to exchange for some strategically important place or concession. Their long term goal is to access to Bangladeshi port.
- Kashmir project. They want to annex ( call it liberated by Bakistan). It will solve lots of their problems. Best indicator for this will be a overt nuclear test by Bakistan(China) to remind the world that this war has potential to go nuclear. Bakistani are counting on internal unrest to change the outcome their way.China will support them overtly. China becomes hero muslim world and super power in the world.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby vinod » 03 Jul 2017 17:56

What I don't understand is.. if this ends up in a war? Isn't the Chinese who is going to lose most, with India following second and west gaining the most???

So, they are simply just pushing their luck.

I hope India is diplomatically active with other India friendly countries like US, Japan, Vietnam, etc. to push for military signals during any misadventure by China.

I'm pretty sure west would like to cut down China if possible without getting their hands dirty.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby chetak » 03 Jul 2017 18:02

rsingh wrote:Not a strategist, but I fail to understand few things. China ha less man and material facing our numerically superior troops. We are well equipped and trained. How come China keeps on provoking us? What is the game plan? Few points
-They are just bluffing. They think they can coerce us to get onboard their OBOR or CEPEC.
I do not think they can cow India like this. Their troops are their just to provoke and hold the territory. I think this is diversion. Real target is somewhere else.
- They want this to use as bargain chip to exchange for some strategically important place or concession. Their long term goal is to access to Bangladeshi port.
- Kashmir project. They want to annex ( call it liberated by Bakistan). It will solve lots of their problems. Best indicator for this will be a overt nuclear test by Bakistan(China) to remind the world that this war has potential to go nuclear. Bakistani are counting on internal unrest to change the outcome their way.China will support them overtly. China becomes hero muslim world and super power in the world.


saar,

what stops them from bringing in more troops and positioning somewhere nearby??

Is it written in stone that the hans will not reinforce?? or escalate??

If any move is made toward cashmere, India has the nuclear option, just like the hans do. The hans will not piss away all that they have schemed and plotted for all these years just for a bit of real estate in India.

BTW, they already have access to beedi ports, unless you specifically mean access via land routes??

their access to gwadar port is all but secure already. Nothing much we can do to stop that part. But the hans seem to have suddenly developed cold feet to access gwadar via the CPEC and so are hell bent on dragging India into the project.

Find the reason why and you will find the reason for the intense itch in the han jocks.

The hans are bluffing. They are holding a hand without any trumps, whereas India holds quite a few trumps. Paki army is the joker in the pack.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby shravanp » 03 Jul 2017 18:39

Karthik S wrote:Funny part is, Cheen is also supposed to be buddhist country before commies took over.


I think they still are, although Cheen's version of Buddhism may not be of same version as Tibetan (also Mongolian) version of Buddhism.

They suppressed Tibetan monasteries but they have other Buddhist shrines in non-Tibetan region of China that are well attended.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby TKiran » 03 Jul 2017 19:03

There's another angle to current situation that a number of Hans are kept in loop via weibo, as PLA thought that it would be positive propaganda to inform Hans about what's happening at doklam plateau (they thought (miscalculated) that Indian Army would back down from there.

Now that it's not happening as they thought, the really got their cheddies in twist, any de-escalation without loss of face is impossible now. Only way they can de-escalate is to make some ambush somewhere along LAC and offer ceasefire.

Based on my interactions with common Han, I can tell that they think India is nowhere near challenge to cheenees, SDRE's are worth less than somalees, just throw some bread at some politicians, you can fool Indians like they always did.

But this time it has been different, and for the first time they are seeing resistance from India,

Every aam Han is anxious to know what's happening between PLA and IA.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby TKiran » 03 Jul 2017 19:45

I tolzya

https://mobile.twitter.com/IndiaTodayFLASH/status/881813777376624640


After border skirmishes, China deploys submarine in Indian Ocean. Watch this report. #ITVideo
(link: http://bit.ly/it_videos) bit.ly/it_videos

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby rsingh » 03 Jul 2017 20:00

^^^^
Frankly I do not think we will ever use Nukes (against Bakistan) even if our non-populated areas are attacked by nukes (by bakistan). i know it is weird thinking but that is my gut feeling. Our leaders are expandable. They can be blackmailed on moral grounds. We are country on non-violance, Nehru Gandhi, Old civilisation, eye for eye makes world blind, anti nuclear demonstrations by left and budhijeevi etyadi. We might use nukes with china if we are attacked. Even for that we will choose some distant non populated region of china. JMT

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby TKiran » 03 Jul 2017 20:42

rsingh wrote:^^^^
Frankly I do not think we will ever use Nukes (against Bakistan) even if our non-populated areas are attacked by nukes (by bakistan). i know it is weird thinking but that is my gut feeling. Our leaders are expandable. They can be blackmailed on moral grounds. We are country on non-violance, Nehru Gandhi, Old civilisation, eye for eye makes world blind, anti nuclear demonstrations by left and budhijeevi etyadi. We might use nukes with china if we are attacked. Even for that we will choose some distant non populated region of china. JMT

The non populated region of China is Tibet and Xinjiang, Hans consider these regions as their vassals, they will laugh their behinds off if we naievely think that we have hit China by hitting these regions. China proper is the coastal China, we may never reach there, though they can target India with nukes from this area.

Well nuclear war is a different ball game altogether. We may not be reaching the stage of nuclear war with China.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Singha » 03 Jul 2017 20:45

Cheen has been alternating a ssk and ssn in ior every 3 months per a report i posted.but someone always us off and a p8 picks it up that someone could be usn singapore japan taiwan or all 4

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Karthik S » 03 Jul 2017 20:45

TKiran wrote:
rsingh wrote:^^^^
Frankly I do not think we will ever use Nukes (against Bakistan) even if our non-populated areas are attacked by nukes (by bakistan). i know it is weird thinking but that is my gut feeling. Our leaders are expandable. They can be blackmailed on moral grounds. We are country on non-violance, Nehru Gandhi, Old civilisation, eye for eye makes world blind, anti nuclear demonstrations by left and budhijeevi etyadi. We might use nukes with china if we are attacked. Even for that we will choose some distant non populated region of china. JMT

The non populated region of China is Tibet and Xinjiang, Hans consider these regions as their vassals, they will laugh their behinds off if we naievely think that we have hit China by hitting these regions. China proper is the coastal China, we may never reach there, though they can target India with nukes from this area.

Well nuclear war is a different ball game altogether. We may not be reaching the stage of nuclear war with China.


Why you think so?

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Marten » 03 Jul 2017 20:56

Singha wrote:Cheen has been alternating a ssk and ssn in ior every 3 months per a report i posted.but someone always us off and a p8 picks it up that someone could be usn singapore japan taiwan or all 4

Several years ago, chanced upon some literature that mentioned underwater arrays being tested near the Andamans. Since there are multiple Indic underwater cable firms, it is also possible that we are able to track specific signatures (the threat profile library bring helpfully shared by US, Australia, Singapore and Japan). We might be lacking in hardware due to procurement issues, but low visibility projects such as these might have been pushed earlier since they are lower cost deterrents or at the very least, our first level tech defenses. We can't afford large ones like the US but having close working relationships with Singapore and Malaysia has benefits. Am sure going around them means being in the ambit of Oz-Filipino (again, US) tracking stations/listening posts.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby shiv » 03 Jul 2017 21:09

TKiran wrote:Based on my interactions with common Han, I can tell that they think India is nowhere near challenge to cheenees, SDRE's are worth less than somalees, just throw some bread at some politicians, you can fool Indians like they always did.

Good if they think that. But if they mean business they have to start mobilizing and the movement will be picked up.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby sanjaykumar » 03 Jul 2017 21:09

That is an interesting dichotomy. Perhaps it comes from being firmly in economic ascent. I wonder what if hardline views on security track Indian states' economic performance.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Iyersan » 03 Jul 2017 21:25

The escalation will be de escalated when Modi meets Eleven on July 7 in Germany

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby TKiran » 03 Jul 2017 21:48

sanjaykumar wrote:That is an interesting dichotomy. Perhaps it comes from being firmly in economic ascent. I wonder what if hardline views on security track Indian states' economic performance.

The propaganda wing of the party has been keeping the ordinary Hans in darkness about Indian economic assent, it's a surprise for them when I showed photographs of metros or some good malls or some decent highways. It's impossible to show good statistics on indian economy in Baidu, complete sensor about India.

They think that only US is their competitor.

Only thing they know about India is that Indians don't have toilets, rape is common in India. Some smart guys ask "I don't think Hindus​ are violent, there is huge Muslim population in India, mostly they must be committing heinous crimes, is it correct? What is the percentage of prison population of Muslims? They should be overwhelmingly high, aren't they?"

Even a thought that India could compete with China gives them jitters, as they were never told that way by the party.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby ramana » 03 Jul 2017 22:19

Could Bhutan be a feint? China could be interested some where else as in 1962.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Iyersan » 03 Jul 2017 22:21

India today states that 14 Chinese warships deployed in IOR post standoff. Live reporting

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby sanjaykumar » 03 Jul 2017 22:37

Even a thought that India could compete with China gives them jitters, as they were never told that way by the party.


Chinese people may just be naive enough to believe the CCP propaganda, much as a religion it has affinity with Christianity or Islam. Christianity's worldview and reportage of the heathen only serve to reinforce its crude narrative. Anything else would be deeply subversive to the gestalt and the primacy of their god and legitimacy of their high priests. Striking parallels indeed.

Christianity has made its peace with Japan, unlike India, by deleting from consciousness its heathenism. Japan however continues to excite China as they are waiting to avenge Nanjing etc, and hence cannot blot them out.



At any rate, China needs to be extremely cautious, Japan itself may launch aggressive sea control patrols over the Senkaku islands, Vietnam may offer further offshore exploration licences in the Indo China Sea, India may open an embassy in Taipei, India may recognise the Dharmashala government in exile. Hong Kong democracy protests may escalate and contaminate Shenzhen. And, the horror of it, Uighurs may grow a beard.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby g.sarkar » 03 Jul 2017 22:52

I wonder if the revival of the long dormant demand for "Gorkhaland" has anything to do with our friend the lizard. I was blaming the mismanagement of Didi for this, but she may not be entirely responsible. A disturbed North Bengal is of great help to the lizard.
Gautam

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby rsingh » 03 Jul 2017 23:04

^^^^
Thought along same lines last week.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Bade » 04 Jul 2017 00:56

Maybe one is reading too much into this. This has been a latent demand for long. She just played her cards wrong by invoking a bit of language chauvinism.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Venkarl » 04 Jul 2017 03:05

Its never too late...the entire stretch between Islampur to cooch behar should be brought under central control by going UT way...a garrisoned one.
And start thinking and act to build a 6 lane highway between Islampur to Cooch Behar via Panchagarh and Haldibari by offering "Something" in return to BD....that chicken neck is always vulnerable....we lost a chance in '71 to thicken that chicken neck

Note: I don't know what's that "something" which we have for BD.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby g.sarkar » 04 Jul 2017 11:50

We have gone through many dramas with China before. India has put a knot in the relationship. Only Fernandez-Chacha can remove this knot.
Gautam
PS Old timers will remember this.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Vikas » 04 Jul 2017 11:56

Ind-Sino jostling match will come to an end soon. Cheen is frustrated with no Indian interest in CPEC and hence these shenanigans.
Today if India gives positive signals on CPEC, tomorrow the borders will go back to being Zen peaceful.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby g.sarkar » 04 Jul 2017 12:17

Bade wrote:Maybe one is reading too much into this. This has been a latent demand for long. She just played her cards wrong by invoking a bit of language chauvinism.

Badeji,
Maybe you are entirely correct. Didi is to be blamed. But it is the timing. I am also quite sure on the sell-ability of the Gorkhaland leaders. If paid enough they will activate the hungama. I do remember reading a long time ago that before the 1962 conflict, there was a palpable increase in the espionage activity coming from the Chinese settled in India (Calcutta?). Troop movements (or the lack of it) was reported to the lizard regularly. I can not remember, perhaps it was in the book "Himalayan Blunder". With age, memory is the second thing to go.
Gautam

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Philip » 04 Jul 2017 13:05

A famous politico once said ,or words to this effect,that "China pushes its sword into flesh relentlessly and only stops when it meets steel"
Therefore it keeps on grabbing land,islands,et al,without fear of retribution as it sabre rattles and threatens like a bloated bully.When it is challenged mano-a-mano,it stops,not wanting to lose face on the battlefield.The simple tactic it uses is to make a claim on its neighbour's property/land.Create a controversy and then look for a compromise in which it benefits the most.

We have to prepare for the worst while hoping that we can call their bluff. Mr.Modi must take most urgent measures on returning and leverage his visit to Israel for whatever the services need from them asap.We must be prepare fro a long dig in.In one way,it is excellent that the arrogant sh*tworms of the PRC have declared their aggressive intent,cunningly trying to squash a hapless Bhutan! Those jokers in the MEA/MOD who've been appeasing China all these years should now be transferred to the dustbin.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 04 Jul 2017 15:24

All eyes now on Modi-Xi meet in Germany - Dinakar Peri, The Hindu

Modi should NOT bring up the border issue. Let Xi bring it up if he wants.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Singha » 04 Jul 2017 15:59

when the world is awake, cheen hides
when the world sleeps, cheen creeps forward
goto step1

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Karthik S » 04 Jul 2017 17:45

SSridhar wrote:All eyes now on Modi-Xi meet in Germany - Dinakar Peri, The Hindu

Modi should NOT bring up the border issue. Let Xi bring it up if he wants.


That will be the best way to rub salt on 11.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby pandyan » 04 Jul 2017 17:59

May be Chinese are trying to distract and reduce pressure on army action on bakis side. bakis i am sure are desperate to continue their normal activities.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby harish_ch » 04 Jul 2017 18:08

I don't think Chinese will do anything for Bakis, especially risking their H&D...

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby TKiran » 04 Jul 2017 18:30

pandyan wrote:May be Chinese are trying to distract and reduce pressure on army action on bakis side. bakis i am sure are desperate to continue their normal activities.

It's not as complicated as you think, the common Han think that India will budge, just like Philippines budged in case of Coral shoals, they have to wait it out that's all.

I think it's the same thinking even in party as well as PLA.

Most probably they are correct, how long can we be in doklam plateau? What about winter?

Only thing that can make this transgression could go wrong is if rNDTV shows live telecast of bloody nose given to PLA by IA. That's not happening.

That will be such a body-blow that even eleven could loose his grip on CPC and CMC. But for that we should give up pusillanimity. That's not happening, very disappointed I am. Such windows of opportunity are very rare and also time critical.

But this move was certainly proactive from IA, and for atleast 24 hours jingo khush hua.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Bade » 04 Jul 2017 18:39

SriJoy wrote:
g.sarkar wrote:Badeji,
Maybe you are entirely correct. Didi is to be blamed. But it is the timing. I am also quite sure on the sell-ability of the Gorkhaland leaders. If paid enough they will activate the hungama. I do remember reading a long time ago that before the 1962 conflict, there was a palpable increase in the espionage activity coming from the Chinese settled in India (Calcutta?). Troop movements (or the lack of it) was reported to the lizard regularly. I can not remember, perhaps it was in the book "Himalayan Blunder". With age, memory is the second thing to go.
Gautam


this is where NAMO can have a golden opportunity- hold Gorkhaland referendum in proposed Gorkhaland. It won't pass simply because No Siliguri = no Gorkhaland and Siliguri is overwhelmingly Bengali (or atleast, used to- I am not sure anymore). Bury it before it can cause strategic disaster for India in the long run.


Why not a Nepal hand in this ? But I would like to look at this as possible way for India to make further inroads into Nepal. Having Gorkhaland and then an expansion into Nepal, perhaps will accelerate Nepalese into a tightening grip into India's orbit and away from China. There is always a silver lining around dark clouds on the horizon. An apparent crisis can be converted into an advantage, but from reading on the ground lots of people in Bengal are not ready for such a parting.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Bade » 04 Jul 2017 18:43

To manage the Chinese threat as this thread title says, may take more than just integrity of the border status quo, it will take some pro-active effort from the Indian side to alter things to its advantage in the long run. Both Nepal and Bhutan are those cards that India will have to not shy away from when the need arises. Any play in Tibet for India to free it from the Chinese will happen only after these are settled favorably.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Karthik S » 04 Jul 2017 18:47

We desperately need SSNs, we realized its significance in 71, still yet to have a fleet. Cheen will send a big fleet to protect its shipping lines and business interests in IOR.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Philip » 04 Jul 2017 18:48

True,China too is different from '62 as they've just said. They're far more arrogant. XI Gins thinks he is a latter-day emperor of Chin ,with delusions of grandeur a yellow Napoleon. The craven Brits rolled out the reddest carpet they could for him when he visited the UK,fawned over him like servile vassals and gave him a ride in the famous Royal Carriage used by HM the Queen on state occasions.So no wonder they think that they can give India a "push and shove".

While some informed sources do not anticipate a spat taking place,they say what we've done as absolutely necessary to stop their land grabbing.
However,the latest media reports have a Chinese PLA journal saying that "India must be taught a lesson" and that a "military conflict could take place".
With a dozen+ PLAN warships,etc. in our "pond",we have to keep[ our powder dry,hope for the best but prepare for the worst. Mr.Modi's visit to Israel will be very keenly watched for signals and any def. agreements announced. The window of opportunity for China is closing as India attempts to lug the gaps and weaknesses in our military machine. By 2020 more aircraft,subs,warships,MBTs,etc. and more advanced tactical missiles like BMos variants,plus strat. missiles like Agni-V,etc. and at least 2 SSBNs at sea,will see a much stronger India ,more defiant of China attracting more strategic friends to its side,who are also afeared of China's global predatory ambitions.

PS:We must be v.watchful that China does not create another "Venlo" type incident (WW2),accuse India and start a scrum.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby nam » 04 Jul 2017 18:57

TKiran wrote:
Most probably they are correct, how long can we be in doklam plateau? What about winter?



We are in Siachen since 84. So the Chinese better get use to waiting for atleast 33 years.

Looks like the daily press conference are meant for mango Chinese. India did not even carry out so many press conference before bombing Pakis in Kargil.

At this rate they may have to permanently recruit someone to give daily briefing.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Venkarl » 04 Jul 2017 18:59

SriJoy wrote:^^
Bad idea. In India, rule of centre is just temporary, its a matter of time before Union territory becomes a state. Especially in a region (chicken's neck) where there is some currency for separate state.

Creating a new state centred around Cooch Behar/chicken's neck is gonna be disastrous in the long run.


Didi doesn't pay much attention to the security of the chicken neck.
Making that region as UT is a bad idea.
A state centered around that region is disastrous in the long run.

Any other suggestions? :P

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Philip » 04 Jul 2017 19:06

New news:

http://www.dnaindia.com/india/report-am ... ve-2491323
Amid Sikkim stand-off, China naval vessels 'unusually' active in Indian Ocean

ABHISHEK BHALLA | Tue, 4 Jul 2017-07:20am , New Delhi , DNA
PM Modi may meet Xi Jinping at G20 Summit in Hamburg later this week

An increased frequency of China's vessels being docked in Karachi and "unusual" activities of its naval units in the Indian Ocean have raised an alarm, amid a month-long military stand-off between Chinese and Indian troops on the Sikkim-Bhutan border. The development comes when Prime Minister Narendra Modi is set to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping later this week on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Hamburg in Germany.

India has already been critical of China's mega infrastructural project 'One Belt One Road' as one of its components called China-Pakistan Economic Corridor passes through Pakistan-occupied Kashmir.

In the last two months, the Indian Navy's satellites, maritime surveillance aircraft and ships have been keeping an eye on around 12 Chinese naval units operating in the Indian Ocean Region. These include Luyang Class III destroyers. The Indian Navy has intensified its vigil using air and surface assets.

Chongmingdao, the Chinese Navy's submarine support vessel assisting their seventh submarine in the Indian Ocean, is being watched by Indian Navy.
The ship and the submarine were in Karachi at the end of May for replacement, sources said.


Sources added that the 10-day Malabar exercise starting July 10, involving India, the US and Japan in the Bay of Bengal, is going to be crucial to control China's naval dominance in the region.

Navy intelligence reports indicate that on the pretext of anti-piracy operations, the Chinese Navy has enhanced its presence in the IOR.

"Anti-piracy operations do not need submarines. Reports indicate they are docked in Karachi and have of late been enhancing their strength in the Indian Ocean," said navy sources.


"In a gap of two to three months, a Chinese submarine is sent. There is an alternative trend of sending a conventional submarine once a nuclear one has been noticed," said naval sources.

Sources said the Chinese navy sent ships in the Gulf of Aden for anti-piracy operations in 2012 for four years after the Indian Navy, but in the last few years they have made attempts to dominate the IOR.

"We have our assets in place accounting for what they are doing," said naval sources.

The Indian and Chinese troops have been locked in a month-long standoff after the Indian Army stopped road construction by the Chinese in Bhutan. The People's Liberation Army destroyed two Indian bunkers at Lalten in Doka La falling at a tri-junction of India, Bhutan and Tibet. China and Bhutan have an ongoing territorial dispute in the region.

Beijing continued to blame India for the standoff alleging that the Sino-India border in the Sikkim sector is well demarcated and the Indian Army's action there is a "betrayal" of the position taken by successive Indian governments.

schinnas
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Joined: 11 Jun 2009 09:44

Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby schinnas » 04 Jul 2017 19:08

Venkarl wrote:Its never too late...the entire stretch between Islampur to cooch behar should be brought under central control by going UT way...a garrisoned one.
And start thinking and act to build a 6 lane highway between Islampur to Cooch Behar via Panchagarh and Haldibari by offering "Something" in return to BD....that chicken neck is always vulnerable....we lost a chance in '71 to thicken that chicken neck

Note: I don't know what's that "something" which we have for BD.


That "something" has a name - Teesta water and road toll that will benefit all the ruling elite of Bangladesh and common people.


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