Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 04 Jul 2017 19:09

The answer to managing the Chinese at our North east border with them, will be a political solution. Some new states will spring up to take care of that. Sikkim anyone ? The parallels are clear...and this has the Chinese fuming and fretting. The only solution they have to thwart India from doing this is a military solution which does not look good on them as an aspiring superpower. They simply cannot grab Bhutan and Nepal, they can only manipulate policy decisions within those countries with respect to India. It is a major handicap for them, so expect them to blare from the rooftops of an Indian occupation and aggression, where there is none.

SriKumar · Post by **SriKumar** » 04 Jul 2017 19:13

Philip wrote:While some informed sources do not anticipate a spat taking place,they say what we've done as absolutely necessary to stop their land grabbing.

This is my impression as well...that what India did was absolutely necessary and the minimum needed to be done. Really India did not have a choice of not reacting in this matter. This is why I am a little surprised by China's stridence in the matter. What did they expect ..... that IA would be sipping Darjeeling tea watching the Chinese build their road?

There is absolutely NO doubt that after building their little road in Dhoklam plateau, they will continue with their one-road-no-belt construction upto the tri-junction (Dhok La) and after that expand the road to 4 lanes or 400 lanes and put a division right in Chumbi valley in a couple of years. The simple choice for Indian army (actually the GOI) is either face them today with their limited/no infrastructure or face them 3 years from now with good infrastructure and troop build-up. By this measure, any activity in the Chumbi valley also presents the exact same issue. In fact, if the Chinese had built up infrastructure in the Chumbi valley and stayed out of the disputed Dhoklam plateau, it would have been much more difficult for India to have a legal basis to interfere. By going into an area where Bhutan has a claim, China seems to have 'walked into it' and presented India an opportunity to get invovled. Now they have to deal with India.

If the maps by rohitvats are correct (and IF I read them correctly) in order to engage the Chinese in Dhoklam plateau, to contact them one would have to either trek across the Chumbi valley (i.e. Tibet/China), or, more likely, meet them directly from Bhutanese territory. And maybe this what the Chinese did not think India would do and hence the stridency.

SriKumar · Post by **SriKumar** » 04 Jul 2017 19:21

nam wrote:
Looks like the daily press conference are meant for mango Chinese. India did not even carry out so many press conference before bombing Pakis in Kargil.

At this rate they may have to permanently recruit someone to give daily briefing.

Is there an official Chinese website that contains these briefings/statements? I went to Xinhua website and found nothing about this. In fact, Xinhua has a lot pleasant and positive news about all the beautiful things happening in China and around the world. Maybe I did not look at the right link within Xinhua.

Similarly, is there an Indian Army website that lists its announcements on the matter. IA recently contradicted so many statements routinely carried by desi press- that no bulldozers were used by China, that this was not the longest stand-off etc. Desi reporters are making up stuff and each one feeds on the other's article and...it becomes news.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 04 Jul 2017 19:44

error

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 04 Jul 2017 21:00

Seems their AC is in Indian Ocean.

BSR Murthy · Post by **BSR Murthy** » 04 Jul 2017 21:09

g.sarkar wrote:We have gone through many dramas with China before. India has put a knot in the relationship. Only Fernandez-Chacha can remove this knot.
Gautam
PS Old timers will remember this.

George Fernandez garu was prescient on China. http://www.nytimes.com/1998/05/05/world ... hreat.html And his admonition/advice IMO still holds true: ''We have become a very soft people, and we must realize that nations are not built through soft options, nor are the country's frontiers secured by a soft line,'' he said. ''One has to be willing to live a hard life.''

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 04 Jul 2017 21:19

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 04 Jul 2017 22:07

Major Gaurav Arya‏Verified account @majorgauravarya
China will invest USD 62 billion in Pak over 15 years through CPEC. India's annual trade deficit with China is 46.56 billion#NumbersMatter

Govt should play a protectionist role, IDK when will govt think in those terms.

jagga · Post by **jagga** » 04 Jul 2017 22:53

Ball is in India's court': China says Doklam situation 'grave', rules out compromise

In unusually blunt remarks, China's ambassador to India Luo Zhaohui said "the ball is in India's court" and it was for the Indian government to decide what options could be on the table to resolve the standoff.

sudarshan · Post by **sudarshan** » 04 Jul 2017 23:01

Let the ball be in India's court and remain there, they think they're playing tennis where India has to return the ball to them, India should instead hog the ball and play basketball. Modi should ask Xi - tera kya hoga, kalia, when India grabs some territory and your own party comrades want to purge you?

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 04 Jul 2017 23:16

Just as USN ship came close to stolen reef in yellow sea, NoKo fires missile. Equation is clear.

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 04 Jul 2017 23:20

Maybe, it is time to really grab some Chinese territory as they claim we are doing. Just constrict the entrance in the north to Chumbi Valley in slow burn mode. Put real pressure there. We do have access north of the snow peaks and glaciers in Sikkim to get around to those parts and it is relatively barren over there.

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 04 Jul 2017 23:24

Is it possible to check if China has changed position or orbit of some of its satellites? Another question: what will happen to Rupee and Chinese Currency in case of armed conflict?

Iyersan · Post by **Iyersan** » 04 Jul 2017 23:41

rsingh wrote:Is it possible to check if China has changed position or orbit of some of its satellites? Another question: what will happen to Rupee and Chinese Currency in case of armed conflict?

Trade will definitely be impacted

nam · Post by **nam** » 05 Jul 2017 00:17

In few days Modi will meet Xi and next week are the Malabar exercise. In either of these case, any action by China will be like "aa bail mujhe maar".

Anyways, I was hoping the Chinese would have spend some time mobilising and shows us their 21 century show and awe deployment like 1500 tanks appear overnight on the borders or mass launch of 2000 jets in Lhasa .. c*ap like that.

We deployed 850k troops in 3 weeks during Ops Parakaram. Instead it has be only press conference by the Chinese.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 05 Jul 2017 03:37

Philip, Maybe the PLAN ships are to reassure Pakis as NaMo visits Israel.

SriKumar · Post by **SriKumar** » 05 Jul 2017 04:00

Posting this article in full because it has some relevant quotes from Chinese envoy. Mods, please move post if this is not the right thread. Article is dated July 4, but not clear when the interview with Chinese envoy took place but likely in the last day or so.

http://www.deccanherald.com/content/620 ... grave.html''

Some things in article seem outright incorrect (e.g. article says Dhok La is the same as Dhoklam plateau- I dont think it is), but article does seem to shed light on why the Chinese are seeing this one differently from previous encounters.

China today ruled out a compromise in the military standoff with India in the Sikkim section, and put the onus on New Delhi to resolve the "grave" situation.

In unusually blunt remarks, China's Ambassador to India Luo Zhaohui said "the ball is in India's court" and it was for the Indian government to decide what options could be on the table to resolve the standoff.

Asked about remarks by official Chinese media and think- tanks that the conflict can lead to a "war" if not handled properly, the ambassador said in an interview to PTI: "There has been talk about this option, that option. It is up to your government policy (whether to exercise military option)."

The Chinese government is very clear that it wants peaceful resolution at current state of the situation for which withdrawal of Indian troops from the area is a "pre-condition", he asserted.

"The first priority is that the Indian troops unconditionally pull back to the Indian side of the boundary. That is the precondition for any meaningful dialogue between China and India," he said.

China and India have been engaged in a standoff in the Dokalam area near the Bhutan trijunction for past 19 days after a Chinese army's construction party came to build a road.

Doka La is the Indian name for the region which Bhutan recognises as Dokalam (this does not seem accurate), while China claims it as part of its Donglang region. China and Bhutan are engaged in talks over the resolution of the area. Bhutan, however, has no diplomatic ties with China and it is supported militarily and diplomatically by India.

"The situation is grave and made me deeply worried. It is the first time that Indian troops have crossed the mutually recognised boundary and trespassed into China's territory, triggering a close range face off between Chinese and Indian border troops. Now 19 days have passed, but the situation still has not eased," Luo said.

He also asserted that India has no right to interfere with the China-Bhutan boundary talks, nor is it entitled to make territorial claims on behalf of Bhutan.

On the standoff, the Ministry of External Affairs had said India was "deeply concerned at the recent Chinese actions and has conveyed to the Chinese government that such construction would represent a significant change of status quo with serious security implications for India".

"As for the so called 'security concerns' of the Indian side, India has crossed a delimited boundary into other country's territory in the name of security concerns, no matter what kind of activities it conducts there, which will not acceptable to any sovereign state.

"India cannot encroach upon the territory of other countries on the ground of its 'security concerns'. Otherwise, the world would be in chaos," the Chinese envoy added.

He also asserted that "it is critical that India shall withdraw its troops immediately to minimise the negative impact. It serves the interests of the two sides."

[....Deleted a couple of lines that are speculation, and likely incorrect].

If Bhutan comes under Chinese orbit, the width of the chicken neck reduces by about half and it becomes longer by 5-10 times; and China will have a border on 3 sides with Arunachal Pradesh (not to mention a border with Assam). Doesn't sound like India had an option to relax and enjoy the show. I would have to think GOI (and IA) would have gamed this scenario way back.

Added later: rohitvats' maps show Dhok La at the very south of the Chumbi Valley, where Bhutan, India and China meet. The road building (currently on hold) is in a place called Dhoklam plateau. Per rohitvats' maps, Dholam plateau is about 25 km north of Dhok La. The above article says both are one and the same place (which I doubt). Linking his article and maps here:
http://vatsrohit.blogspot.com/2017/07/d ... china.html

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 05 Jul 2017 05:17

The only way they can reach the tri-junction area is via road that passed through Bhutanese territory on the Dokla plateau/pass. This is always shown as the disputed area even on google maps on the east side of Chumbi valley bordering Bhutan. It is quite possible Indian troops stationed on the Bhutan side were the ones who intercepted the PLA army road work there. But the connection to tri-junction area is the road itself where the Chinese want to grab land which India would not allow for sure. In that sense they are linked, though not close to each other. Indian troops may have entered the Bhutan side of the tri-junction area on their request. We do not know, as it has not been disclosed publicly by the Indian side.

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 05 Jul 2017 05:30

When one looks on google earth 3d view, the tri-junction area in the south looks like a real plateau. The disputed area on the China-Bhutan side of the border to the north has valleys and peaks, but it seems to be referred to as the Dokalam plateau. Maybe this is what is causing the confusion ?

SriKumar · Post by **SriKumar** » 05 Jul 2017 06:07

Bade wrote:The only way they can reach the tri-junction area is via road that passed through Bhutanese territory on the Dokla plateau/pass. This is always shown as the disputed area even on google maps on the east side of Chumbi valley bordering Bhutan. It is quite possible Indian troops stationed on the Bhutan side were the ones who intercepted the PLA army road work there. But the connection to tri-junction area is the road itself where the Chinese want to grab land which India would not allow for sure. In that sense they are linked, though not close to each other. Indian troops may have entered the Bhutan side of the tri-junction area on their request. We do not know, as it has not been disclosed publicly by the Indian side.

I think you are correct. It was speculation on my side and now looks likely that it was incorrect. I assumed that the area marked 'dokalam plateau' is the scene of the action, but it is probably at the tri-junction (not marked as a plateau), which is also disputed. I'll edit my post above.
--Good to have you back. BTW, Amber.G is back too, posting in Indian Space, and Math threads--

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 05 Jul 2017 07:42

This is what we are up against internally . . .

[Reliance] Jio appears to be ready to flood the market with its 4G devices, having placed orders for 18-20 million of the 4G VoLTE featurephones with some key Chinese original device manufacturers (ODMs) including Zhejiang Techain Electronics Technology Co., Shenzhen CHINO-E Communication Co, Crave and Megaphone. Handset makers sell roughly on average five million feature phones and 15 million smartphones a month.

People aware of the details said that shipments should begin from July end or early-August, with the company looking at a possible launch for August 15.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 05 Jul 2017 07:45

cheen sneaks up and attacks india

https://twitter.com/Pyrmha108/status/881644787601985536

putnanja · Post by **putnanja** » 05 Jul 2017 08:01

China claiming sizeable Bhutan territory, Nehru told Zhu Enlai in letter

"It is not clear to us what exactly is the implication of your statement that the boundaries of Sikkim and Bhutan do not fall within the scope of the present discussion," Nehru wrote in a letter to his then Chinese counterpart Zhou Enlai on September 26, 1959.

"In fact, Chinese maps show sizable areas of Bhutan as part of Tibet," Nehru said in the letter accessed by PTI here.

In the lengthy letter highlighting India's stand on the boundary dispute, Nehru wrote that under treaty relationships with Bhutan, the Government of India is the only competent authority to take up with other Governments matters concerning Bhutan's external relations, and in fact it has taken up with China a number of matters on behalf of the Bhutan Government.

"The rectification of errors in Chinese maps regarding the boundary of Bhutan with Tibet is therefore a matter which has to be discussed along with the boundary of India with the Tibet region of China in the same sector," he wrote.
...
...
At the same time, he pointed out that "it is wrong to say that the frontier east of Bhutan as shown on Chinese maps is the traditional frontier. On the contrary, it is the McMahon Line which correctly represents the customary boundary in this area. The water-parting formed by the crest of the Himalayas is the natural frontier which was accepted for centuries as the boundary by the peoples on both sides."

...

Marten · Post by **Marten** » 05 Jul 2017 08:10

Inevitably, the PLA will attack or at least encroach from a position of strength (rather, where it holds the advantage) or cause mischief close to the current situation as the meeting between Xi and NaMo approaches. This is how the juvenile play book goes. To show strength, apparently. The Malabar exercise will put them under more pressure.

As a sign of things to come, NoKo launched the supposed ICBM. This is probably China's only way to distract attention from the hole they dug themselves into. Sacrificing Kim is easier than losing face.

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 05 Jul 2017 08:34

India Today‏Verified account @IndiaToday
"India is acting shamelessly before the international community," the Chinese editorial said

Guess super powers whine like this.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 05 Jul 2017 09:03

‘ASEAN seeks greater role by India’ - Kallol Bhattacherjee, The Hindu

Opening new possibilities in Southeast Asia, Vietnam on Tuesday asked India to play a greater role in ASEAN’s strategic and security affairs. Speaking at the Delhi Dialogue IX, a platform for discussion between ASEAN and India, Vietnamese Deputy Prime Minister Pham Binh Minh said that India should support freedom of navigation in the South China Sea on the basis of international law and conventions.

“ASEAN supports India to play a greater role in the political and security domain, and create a regional rule-based region. We hope India will continue to partner our efforts for strategic security and freedom of navigation in South China Sea on the basis of international law and legal convention,” said the visiting leader.

The Vietnamese leader who is on a two-day visit to Delhi, is also the Foreign Minister of his country and held talks with External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj. His comments in support of greater role for India in Southeast Asia came even as tension is building up between India and China across the Sikkim sector.

Common interests

“India and Vietnam share political and economic interests. As the future unfolds we have reason to be optimistic. ASEAN will benefit from India’s experience of resolving maritime issues in a peaceful manner,” he said indicating at the dispute with China in the South China Sea region.

In her speech, External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj said that ties with ASEAN is at the centre of India’s Act East Policy. “We place ASEAN at heart of our ‘Act East Policy’ and centre of our dream of an Asian century. ASEAN and India are natural partners,” she said.

TKiran · Post by **TKiran** » 05 Jul 2017 10:17

.India will suffer greater losses than 1962 if incited: Chinese media

Hubris may accelerate collapse of Middle Kingdom sooner than late.

Iyersan · Post by **Iyersan** » 05 Jul 2017 10:26

It is difficult for either side to go into a border skirmish now as there has been sufficient troop build up on either side

TKiran · Post by **TKiran** » 05 Jul 2017 10:48

^^^but there's a chance that the party might have started believing it's own propaganda and that's what I called hubris, you narrate some grandiosity about your own invincibility and start believing it.

Shiv sir may be able to explain piskology better

TKiran · Post by **TKiran** » 05 Jul 2017 11:07

If there has been a build up already, it may be difficult to assess their strength, but we can start watching from now on. Military intelligence makes accurate assessment, but it will be activated only when war starts (I believe)

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 05 Jul 2017 11:14

schinnas wrote:
Venkarl wrote:Its never too late...the entire stretch between Islampur to cooch behar should be brought under central control by going UT way...a garrisoned one.
And start thinking and act to build a 6 lane highway between Islampur to Cooch Behar via Panchagarh and Haldibari by offering "Something" in return to BD....that chicken neck is always vulnerable....we lost a chance in '71 to thicken that chicken neck

Note: I don't know what's that "something" which we have for BD.
That "something" has a name - Teesta water and road toll that will benefit all the ruling elite of Bangladesh and common people.

the beedis have already settled in the chicken neck area in vast numbers.

beedi has recognised the vulnerability of this area and the threat to India here.

We need to cleanse this area first, irrespective of political fall out.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 05 Jul 2017 13:03

Beijing’s Bhutan gambit: Here’s how to contain China - Ahijit Iyer-Mitra, Economic Times

The recent skirmishes with China near the Bhutan border bring home one thing loud and clear: the danger is clear and present. The question is: how do we defuse this, and what options does India have on the table?

The recent spate of deliberate incursions — and let us be clear about it that these are planned in Beijing — seems to have had multiple triggers and multiple desirables. All Chinese actions invariably are multi-causal.{Very True}

In conjunction with ongoing provocations by China in the South China Sea, the first message is clearly aimed at the United States to show that China can activate multiple fronts to make Washington’s life miserable and bog it down in many theatres of action. More importantly, this also demonstrates that the US’s regional allies are security lightweights, and that the benefits they bring are outweighed by the security baggage they lug along.

The second is aimed at India — the message that any closer proximity with the US comes with consequences, and should those consequences escalate militarily, there is very little that the US can realistically do to help India. The third message is also to India — and it has to do with India’s furious rejection of the ‘One Belt One Road’ (Obor) initiative — something President Xi has associated his personal prestige with and the rejection of which he seems to have taken quite personally as well. The final message is to Bhutan. To Bhutanese policymakers, it is to demonstrate the limits of Indian help.

After all, will India risk Gangtok, Itanagar or, for that matter, Delhi, for Thimpu, if push comes to shove? Clearly then, one of the desired tangibles of the latest Chinese action is to co-opt Bhutan into joining Obor and pave the way for formal bilateral relations between the two, reducing, if not jettisoning, India’s vice-regency. So what can India do? The response has to be divided in two: the tactical talking down of China, and the strategic containment of China. The tactical involves appeasing China to some degree and assuaging Xi by pursuing the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar (BCIM) Forum for Regional Cooperation vigorously.

This enables Xi to portray this initiative as a subset of Obor for the purposes of the 19th Congress of Communist Party of China later this year, and in so doing ‘save face’. India, too, saves face by not joining Obor, while ignoring the domestic messaging in China of BCIM being ‘Obor-minus’. The strategic containment borrows from a US Cold War template. The closest point between the US and the Soviet Union was in the Bering Straits, where the two were separated by a mere 90 km. Yet, the US kept the Soviet Union bogged down in Europe, seldom — if at all — paying attention to the straits.

In the Indian iteration, India needs to turn the South China Sea into the Fulda Gap and the Himalayas into the Bering Straits. India’s fear has always been ‘What if China does the same in the Indian Ocean’? This is where our policymakers have a clear decision to make and cannot afford to dither.

Do we continue to invest in an obsolete Army facing what is literally an uphill battle, and indulge the Navy’s power projection fantasies? Or do we focus on the problem at hand, cut the Army, focus on the Air Force, and force our Navy into a sea denial posture in a domain where we enjoy an overwhelming advantage? The path ahead seems quite clear. The question is will Delhi choose it.

(The writer is Senior fellow at the Institute of Peace & Conflict Studies)

nam · Post by **nam** » 05 Jul 2017 13:29

Do we continue to invest in an obsolete Army facing what is literally an uphill battle, and indulge the Navy’s power projection fantasies? Or do we focus on the problem at hand, cut the Army, focus on the Air Force, and force our Navy into a sea denial posture in a domain where we enjoy an overwhelming advantage? The path ahead seems quite clear. The question is will Delhi choose it.

(The writer is Senior fellow at the Institute of Peace & Conflict Studies)

This is a typical American and Australia view of what they want India to do. They want a "SCS version of Pakistan" for taking on China.

It is not possible to do sea denial. The Russian Navy is a shadow of it's former self, but nothing stopped it from supporting Syrian campaign. Compared to the Russians the Chinese are rolling out ships like Foxconn phones.

The Americans jump in to troubles far away because their formidable defence at home. Why would India invest in a fight in the Chinese backyard? I support investment in the Navy, but it should be for defending IOR. Let the Americans "contain" the Chinese in SCS.

On the other hand, Tibet is our backyard and Himalayas is a formidable obstacle for the Chinese. Chinese will have tough time finding people to fight in Tibet, compared to SCS.

The Chinese cannot defeat us in NE unless they clear IAF off the skies. And it is easier for India to build jets than ships.

Regarding the "obsolete" army, we are still a nation because of IA. The haven't invaded us in NE because of this obsolete army.

jagga · Post by **jagga** » 05 Jul 2017 14:25

India will suffer greater losses than in 1962 if it incites conflict,' says state-run Chinese media

As the Sino-Indian border standoff+ enters the 20th day, an increasingly strident Chinese media said "shameless" India must be taught "a bitter lesson" and added that India "will suffer greater losses than in 1962" if war were to break out today.
An editorial on Wednesday in the hardline state-run Global Times also said the Chinese public is "infuriated by India's provocation" and "look(s) down" on India's military might.Further, it accused India of "acting shamelessly before the international community" and of "coercing" Bhutan to get involved in this latest India-China border standoff

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 05 Jul 2017 14:36

http://www.news18.com/news/india/chines ... 52527.html

rukmini naval sat spots cheen spy ship in IOR

nam · Post by **nam** » 05 Jul 2017 15:04

Rukmini is a comm stat, how will it spot ships?

Signal interception?

rsingh · Post by **rsingh** » 05 Jul 2017 16:10

Karthik S wrote:
India Today‏Verified account @IndiaToday
"India is acting shamelessly before the international community," the Chinese editorial said
Guess super powers whine like this.

Every threat, insult shouted by Chinese look funny. Just replace that countries name and put word "china"..........you see the truth as perceived by rest of the world. India,Vietnam, Japan, burkina fasso you name it. China feel threatened by everything. There is not a single country on earth which was not warned by China.

shravanp · Post by **shravanp** » 05 Jul 2017 16:35

China is sounding quite like Kejriwal or CPI guy Karat

nam · Post by **nam** » 05 Jul 2017 16:48

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/201 ... ands-india

The dispute flared up in June after Chinese teams began building a road on territory also claimed by Bhutan. The tiny Himalayan kingdom sought help from its longtime ally, India, which sent border guards onto the plateau to obstruct Chinese workers.

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wir ... l-48445534

The latest dispute flared up in June after Chinese teams began building a road on territory also claimed by Bhutan. Although China and Bhutan have spent decades negotiating the precise border without serious incident, the tiny Himalayan kingdom sought help this time from its longtime ally, India, which sent troops onto the plateau to obstruct Chinese workers.

Good the narrative seems to be spreading. This needs to be repeated in every Indian MEA response. The source seems to be AP.

There was another Op-ed by Brahma Challney in a Japanese paper with the same narrative.

anchal · Post by **anchal** » 05 Jul 2017 16:52

Wanted to buy an MI mobile phone. Will not. I think to bring lizard into some senses, a not so subtle boycott Chinese maal call needs to be given. China uses it every time against its neighbours (Mongolia, SK, Japan) in the pretext of patriotismgiri