Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 19 Jul 2017 00:10

chola I could have rephrased it better but was on phone.

Mallacca straits effects sea lanes while Chicken Neck is our territory.

A vast difference.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 19 Jul 2017 00:21

prasan wrote:
ramana wrote:Worse.
Malacca only threatens Chinese sea lanes.
Chicken Neck threatens Indian territory.
Cant we ask bangladesh to give access through their territory to move men and materials.

no need to ask. We will not be stopped if we need to go that route.

just move where you want and to hell with the rest. It can all be sorted out later.

IG was strategically myopic in making settlements with the beedis as well as the pakis. we had them both on the mat.

It almost seems anti national now that no concessions were sought after the war to benefit India. She certainly had shit for brains advisors.

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 19 Jul 2017 00:30

chetak wrote: no need to ask. We will not be stopped if we need to go that route.
just move where you want and to hell with the rest. It can all be sorted out later.

Internal politics may not allow Sh. Haseena to agree to a loss of sovereignty to India. But if India just goes ahead during a war like situation, I do not see BD able to object in time to do anything.
Gautam

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 19 Jul 2017 00:31

Let's remember when we talk about "escalation" that there are at least two extreme models of escalation (and a spectrum of possibilities between the two). Escalation is not a ladder, it is a matrix.

The two extreme models are:

1) Exclusively Local Escalation: Actual military responses/initiatives as well as posturing, deployment of personnel. shoring up of firepower and logistics capabilities, emergency acquisition of materiel are all overtly and strictly focused on the contested area. Meaning: only the Dhoklam Plateau in this case. This may be accompanied by other (economic, diplomatic etc.) offensives and countermeasures but in *military* terms the contest is restricted by both sides to a well-defined local theatre of operations. A classic example of this would be the Kargil War: India responded to Paki incursions with exclusively local escalation in Kargil and Drass sectors, never crossing the LoC (let alone mobilizing on IB etc.)

Restricting escalation to this model relies on both countries having an interest in spatially limiting and circumscribing the military ramifications of a conflict OR on one country having such an interest, while the other country lacks the capability to extend the conflict beyond the local sphere (or to deal with the aftermath of spillover). The latter case obtained in Kargil.

Many commentators (at least on the Indian side) are assuming that India and China both have a committed preference for Model 1 escalation in the present situation.

2) Breadthwise/Lateral Escalation: Actual military responses/initiatives are broadened over many fronts and many theatres. Classic example would be 1965 war when Pakis wanted to restrict the theatre to J&K but India broadened to Punjab/Rajasthan. In the current conflict this would involve scenarios where China opened additional fronts in Ladakh or Tawang to break a stalemate; or India mobilized its naval assets to blockade Malacca Straits (or even to menace the Coco Island PLAN base).

The advantage of this as seen in 1965 is (for the escalating party) to fight on ground and terms of its own choosing rather than simply responding to the enemy's initiative. The disadvantage is escalation spiraling out of control and leading to all-out war with all the ramifications thereof.

Of course in most cases the actual escalation matrix falls somewhere between these two extremes.

One thing that has not been a major factor influencing the escalation matrix in earlier conflicts, but might very well become a factor in present and future conflicts, is the deployment of 4GW methods. Disinformation, asymmetric warfare through proxy actors, and cyber warfare to name a few.

Today it seems China doesn't even want to escalate in Dhoklam beyond loud sabre-rattling and refusing to pull back, and India is also simply staying put (though doing so relatively quietly). This indicates a preference by both sides for Model 1, if at all escalation occurs to break out of the stalemate.

However there are two factors that increase the chance of a miscalculation by the Chinese.

1) A belief (true) that they are ultimately at a strategic disadvantage should things get hot on the Dhoklam Plateau and Chumbi Valley. For all the reasons we have described: inaccessibility of the region for China vis-a-vis proximity to the Indian heartland, difficulty of air operations from Tibet, etc. So if they escalate strictly upon Model 1 they will lose.

2) A belief that China can engage in 4GW beneath a certain threshold and STILL restrict their military involvement to Model 1 escalation. This is what is signaled by the Chinese activation of proxies in NE and J&K, as well as their *threat signaling* (whether credible or not) to engage in Model 2 (lateral) escalation in J&K. The Chinese may also believe that exploring other options of 4GW, such as large-scale cyber attacks on Indian govt and economic targets, will enable them to exert irresistible pressure on India while limiting the actual military escalation to Model 1 (i.e. they may calculate that we will not open additional military fronts in response to 4GW).

This second factor is critical. How true is this Chinese belief? By what Indian signals can it be deterred or undermined?

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 19 Jul 2017 00:36

ramana wrote:Worse.
Malacca only threatens Chinese sea lanes.
Chicken Neck threatens Indian territory.

currently, without the malacca straits, the hans are up the shyte creek without the proverbial paddle.

CPEC is far far away.

just need to sink a few fully laden bulk carriers at specific places already identified and not only the hans but the world's economy will rapidly wind down. we will not be much affected except for very high global oil and some commodity prices.

The han economy will tank rapidly with massive internal unrest.

this is the black swan event that has been gamed by all countries in the world.

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 19 Jul 2017 01:15

Rudradev wrote: 2) ...This is what is signaled by the Chinese activation of proxies in NE and J&K, as well as their *threat signaling* (whether credible or not) to engage in Model 2 (lateral) escalation in J&K. The Chinese may also believe that exploring other options of 4GW, such as large-scale cyber attacks on Indian govt and economic targets, will enable them to exert irresistible pressure on India while limiting the actual military escalation to Model 1 (i.e. they may calculate that we will not open additional military fronts in response to 4GW).

As we do not have an independent Nagaland, Mizoland, Assomland or even a Bodoland, proxies have not worked for China. They have been just an irritant. Even if they revive the agitations in Indian NE, it will not have a short term effect. But we must watch out such activities on the long run. What China needs is to have a shock and awe type of campaign as in Jugoland, Kuwait or Iraq, where the opposition is overwhelmed by massive attacks and meekly surrenders. Do they have that much fire power as the Khans did?
Gautam

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 19 Jul 2017 01:30

Gautam, it's not that the Chinese have to actually achieve independent Nagaland, Mizoland etc. to "win" in 4GW. That's not the purpose of 4GW necessarily... it's more about imposing strategic denial on the enemy than gaining strategic control oneself. According to THEIR calculations, the Chinese may decide they simply have to create enough trouble via such proxies that India backs off from the point of direct military confrontation (in this case Dhoklam) and resolves the stalemate in their favour.

Such a belief on China's part may cause them to try and activate NE and/or J&K proxies in the current situation. However that will have the effect of blurring the distinction between the Model 1(local only) escalation model, which is the rational choice for both countries, and the Model 2 (lateral/breadthwise) escalation model which runs a much higher risk of spinning beyond control. The Chinese may think that activating proxies to create trouble for India in NE or J&K "doesn't count" as opening a "new front". However India, provoked beyond a point, will indeed see it as a "new front" being opened by China.

How then will we respond?
>Should we open a 4GW front of our own via encouraging active Tibetan separatism?
>Should we open a new operational military front, say in POK by targeting CPEC?

What will be the likely effects of each course of action by us?

Trying to stay a couple of steps ahead of the game here.

Guddu · Post by **Guddu** » 19 Jul 2017 01:45

Ajai Shukla has an update at his blog..

"Doklam faceoff: Motives, stakes and what lies ahead?
By Ajai Shukla
Business Standard, 19th July 17
What motives underlie the month-long standoff between Indian Army troops and Chinese border guards in the Doklam bowl, on the Sino-Indian border in Sikkim? What is at stake there for India and China? How could this play out, and is there a real threat of war?"

Avtar Singh · Post by **Avtar Singh** » 19 Jul 2017 02:03

this chicken neck thing has to be one of the biggest Indian red herrings

as others have alluded to above, in a conflict with china....
India is really going to sit there and be worried about the confines of this stupid chicken neck?

bangladesh should be told to keep its air force grounded(does it have one?)
radars off and army in barracks, unless it is helping India

a conflict with china would be “total war” and if it comes to becoming 3.5 fronts so be it...
India should not let this stupid chickens neck hinder its operations...
I would say this should apply even in a limited conflict

DavidD · Post by **DavidD** » 19 Jul 2017 02:08

chetak wrote:
ramana wrote:Worse.
Malacca only threatens Chinese sea lanes.
Chicken Neck threatens Indian territory.
currently, without the malacca straits, the hans are up the shyte creek without the proverbial paddle.

CPEC is far far away.

just need to sink a few fully laden bulk carriers at specific places already identified and not only the hans but the world's economy will rapidly wind down. we will not be much affected except for very high global oil and some commodity prices.

The han economy will tank rapidly with massive internal unrest.

this is the black swan event that has been gamed by all countries in the world.

You should take a look at this graph:

http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NE. ... ions=CN-IN

China's economy is rapidly changing, it's important to keep up with the latest developments in order to build a foundation for more accurate assessment. Trade for example, has taken up a higher percentage of GDP for India than China since 2009. Though the difference is minor currently, compared to the 3 decades prior it's a big change.

There are a few problems with a Malacca strait blockade. First, as the above graph shows, it might not hurt China as much as you think. Second, it requires sustained presence of a lot of ships, which the PLAN has a clear advantage. Third, it directly threatens the livelihood of all nations in the area and in fact would be quite damaging to the world economy as you alluded to. Fourth, it's difficult to target solely Chinese ships, as the world market is filled with instances of Norwegian ships manned by Filipino sailors sailing from UAE to Shanghai (just an example), and shipping companies would certainly mitigate risks by increasing such instances so sinking one of their ships would be as offensive to as many people as possible. Lastly and IMO most importantly in the long run, it would very much suit China's geopolitical goals as nothing would pull the SEA nations closer to China than Chinese warships coming to defend their lifeline. In fact a blockade would be anathema to both American ideals of freedom on the seas and their geopolitical goals in Asia and they may not want China to take credit for breaking such a blockade.

DavidD · Post by **DavidD** » 19 Jul 2017 02:23

chola wrote: Our objective should be VERY clear:

Give Cheen a crushing military defeat along the border and, ideally, create suffocating chaos for the chini economy by cutting off its trade routes in the IOR.

Because Cheen is a rational trading power with non-military culture, a short war is possible especially if we overwhelm them in the theaters of our choice and give them no incentive to pursue further hostilies by limiting territorial gains to what we lost in 1962 and bit more in defensible positions. It won't go long term or total war if we don't get victory disease and attempt to detach Tibet as a whole. They'll settle down to making money again once we magnanimously release our chokehold on the IOR and trade flows again.

For us, this victory over Cheen would instantaneously vault us to the position of top power in Asia and number 2 in the world behind the US. It would be our Spanish-American, Franco-Prussian or Russo-Japanese War (the three signature wars which made the US, Germany and Japan into great powers.)

Three victories over TSP gave us nothing in terms of reputation or status as a great power because it is such a shitty failure of a nation. Cheen is a P5 and considered a peer rival of the US but like Imperial Spain, post-Napoleon France and Czarist Russia in those other wars it is a perfect opponent -- top flight reputation but weak militarily under the hood.

The objective is great power status.

Conversely, if we do not fight then we will not see India overtaking Cheen in our life time. I posted the calculations earlier. Cheen adds far more every year to its economy than we do to ours even with a higher growth rate. The GDP gap is widening and will widen for decades. The arms gap will widen, they have built four 12K ton Type 055s in parallel and that is on top of a flood of Type 054 frigates and Type 052D destroyers. Where are our P15Bs? And that's only the surface fleet. We are worst off on the submarine front and when their Type 002 and 003 carriers come out, we'll be behind in naval air as well. This will change the calculus of our stranglehold on their trade routes.

Your plan sounds more "how to give the Chinese a bloody nose before we can't anymore" than a road to superpowerdom. Hows a war in Chimbi valley gonna change the construction of the Chinese fleet or the Indian fleet, for example? Vietnam defeated the Americans, Afghanistan the Soviets, where's their superpower status? Vietnam pushed back China in '79, did that stop China's rise? Superpowersdom is gained through comprehensive national strength, which is built through rational planning, while your plan is based on emotions.

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 19 Jul 2017 02:30

Guddu wrote:Ajai Shukla has an update at his blog..

"Doklam faceoff: Motives, stakes and what lies ahead?
By Ajai Shukla
Business Standard, 19th July 17
What motives underlie the month-long standoff between Indian Army troops and Chinese border guards in the Doklam bowl, on the Sino-Indian border in Sikkim? What is at stake there for India and China? How could this play out, and is there a real threat of war?"

Link
http://ajaishukla.blogspot.com/2017/07/ ... -what.html

Since India does not claim the Doklam bowl, China’s entry placed the ball squarely in Bhutan’s court. But Thimphu had not objected forcefully when China had encroached into the Doklam bowl in 2003-07, and it was – understandably, given Bhutan’s power differential with China – reluctant to intervene now. Consequently, Indian troops in the vicinity, acting in accordance with New Delhi’s foreign policy coordination treaty with Thimphu, crossed on June 16 into Bhutanese-claimed territory and physically blocked the movement of Chinese border guards. India also positioned two bulldozers in the Doklam bowl to undo any road construction by the Chinese.]Since then, several hundred Indian soldiers and as many Chinese border guards (since their army does not guard the border) have come face to face in Doklam in a testy stalemate.

So we're looking at ~1 battalion-strength deployments on each side (in answer to my own question earlier in this thread).

g.sarkar · Post by **g.sarkar** » 19 Jul 2017 02:56

Rudradev wrote:Gautam, it's not that the Chinese have to actually achieve independent Nagaland, Mizoland etc. to "win" in 4GW. That's not the purpose of 4GW necessarily... it's more about imposing strategic denial on the enemy than gaining strategic control oneself. According to THEIR calculations, the Chinese may decide they simply have to create enough trouble via such proxies that India backs off from the point of direct military confrontation (in this case Dhoklam) and resolves the stalemate in their favour.

As I see it, the separatists in Indian NE have agitated for a long time, and have often given up and joined the Union to share in the fruits of power. However put, this has not been a victory for China by any means. As far as creating trouble, they have done that for decades there is not much more they can do without direct involvement. These troubles did not trouble India that much. We can live with this for a long time and we have.
Gautam

bharotshontan · Post by **bharotshontan** » 19 Jul 2017 03:06

Any chance for a Bhutan merger with India coming out of this Chinese aggression?

Dipanker · Post by **Dipanker** » 19 Jul 2017 04:04

Why is GOI in mostly silent mode? China is issuing daily dose of psyops/threats which the MSM newspapers are faithfully reproducing. At least some of these need to be countered.

Sikkim stand-off could escalate into full-scale conflict, warns China

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 19 Jul 2017 05:13

Because they are devotes of Mahatama Theodore Roosevelt.

That Ajay Shukla article fits my India "broke some unwritten rules". Google Earth does show roads/tracks into the territory in question dating back several years.

The Indians have obviously gamed this every which way: They ain't backing down.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 19 Jul 2017 05:22

BRF thread on

Roots of Chinese boastfulness - history & psyche

Good to read to understand Chinese psyche.

amit · Post by **amit** » 19 Jul 2017 06:08

This latest Doklam incursion by China could have been a tactic to gain strategic advantage to threaten the Siliguri corridor in order to put pressure on India to join CEPC.

Note very carefully the folks that the Chinese Amby met and then note the statements issued by Karat and Mamata among others. Particularly Mamata.

IMO the Chinese game plan was that by 2024 or so the BJP would be weaker than it is today and so a combination of bribes and danda in terms of threats to the Chicken's Neck via Doklam would pursuade the TMC and the other parties to put pressure on India to join CEPC.

IMO there is a realization that CEPC is dead on arrival for China without the Indian market - its original concept was a case of tactical brilliance but strategic blunder. If China wanted Gwadar port, it didn't need to spend $54 billion for it. Heck the Chinese already control the port. This was a case of Eleven's hubris and now China is scrambling to make it work as if it doesn't work so doesn't OBOR.

China is hollering away because it's acting like the kid who was caught with his hand in the cookie jar. They did not expect a robust Indian response in Bhutanese territory. One should note that the road building exercise stopped short of Indian territory. If China indeed wanted to provoke India why stop a kilometer from the Indian border?

Chinese moves should never be analysed in isolation. It's not a military power in the sense that Japan was. Rather it is a merchantilist power which uses every state instrument to further its merchantilist ambitions. So behind every muscle flexing look for the $$ trail.

Hint: South China Sea is reported to have huge hydrocarbon reserves. The waters off the Taiwan coast, on the other hand, have no such reserves. Also note there are several islands virtually a boat ride from the Chinese coast which are controlled by Taiwan. Have you heard of seen any Chinese efforts to reclaim those islands?

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 19 Jul 2017 07:11

Can anyone explain Mamta's flip flop. Is she on Chinese rolls ? Earlier it was China threat to Gorkhaland movement, now she is saying something different. At least the communists have not changed their story line.

Or is that their meeting with Rahul did not gain dividends, so they are trying Mamata now ?

The only message that China is sending out is that they are mad at us, but do not want war at the same time. Usually, one has to read the opposite meaning of the statements they make. When they say it is Chinese territory that India did incursion on, clearly it means the opposite.

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 19 Jul 2017 07:23

duplicate

Arjun · Post by **Arjun** » 19 Jul 2017 07:37

One other point to remember is that the China: India GDP multiple is at its peak right now at 5:1, and therefore this is the one point in history where China has the maximum strength relative to India. 40 or 50 years ago it was almost 1:1. Also looking into the future, all economists are agreed that the multiple will again decline as India surpasses China as the world's leading economic growth engine.

Therefore if there is an opportune time for China to impose a war on India this is it...Perhaps they are also calculating that through this war they can change India's economic trajectory so we no longer can take the crown from China.

Fortunately for India, two can play this game - and India can also target Chinese economic interests through CPEC and Tibet.

Iyersan · Post by **Iyersan** » 19 Jul 2017 07:39

http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/chin ... 05448.html
Now, China moves tonnes of military equipment to Tibet. Should India be scared?

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 19 Jul 2017 07:49

Arjun wrote:One other point to remember is that the China: India GDP multiple is at its peak right now at 5:1, and therefore this is the one point in history where China has the maximum strength relative to India. 40 or 50 years ago it was almost 1:1. Also looking into the future, all economists are agreed that the multiple will again decline as India surpasses China as the world's leading economic growth engine.

Therefore if there is an opportune time for China to impose a war on India this is it...Perhaps they are also calculating that through this war they can change India's economic trajectory so we no longer can take the crown from China.

Fortunately for India, two can play this game - and India can also target Chinese economic interests through CPEC and Tibet.

GDP? US:Russia is 10:1. Did that stop Russians from going into Georgia, Syria? US:Vietnam in 1970 was 80:1. We know who came out victorious there.

rohiths · Post by **rohiths** » 19 Jul 2017 07:53

Chinese may attack during Independence day. We would have completed 70 years of Independence and that will be a perfect moment to show India it's place. They have no intention of keeping quiet. Hope we are prepared.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 19 Jul 2017 08:03

rohiths wrote:Chinese may attack during Independence day. We would have completed 70 years of Independence and that will be a perfect moment to show India it's place. They have no intention of keeping quiet. Hope we are prepared.

Have you read any reports of Chinese mobilization which they absolutely will need before such an attack? Do you know their current deployments? Or are you merely expressing some deep seated fears?

khan · Post by **khan** » 19 Jul 2017 08:03

Iyersan wrote:http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/chin ... 05448.html
Now, China moves tonnes of military equipment to Tibet. Should India be scared?

If they do attack, this could be an opportunity to liberate Tibet.

amit · Post by **amit** » 19 Jul 2017 08:05

Arjun wrote:One other point to remember is that the China: India GDP multiple is at its peak right now at 5:1, and therefore this is the one point in history where China has the maximum strength relative to India. 40 or 50 years ago it was almost 1:1. Also looking into the future, all economists are agreed that the multiple will again decline as India surpasses China as the world's leading economic growth engine.

Therefore if there is an opportune time for China to impose a war on India this is it...Perhaps they are also calculating that through this war they can change India's economic trajectory so we no longer can take the crown from China.

Fortunately for India, two can play this game - and India can also target Chinese economic interests through CPEC and Tibet.

Arjun,

We discussed this window of opportunity for China for a war and I remember we all generally agreed that 2017-18 was the window for the attack.

However, I think some new factors have cropped up which we didn't foresee back then. One is that with this new government in place India has a far more robust foreign policy. Another factor is the way international relations have changed due to a variety of factors, including China's belligerence.

Another factor is trade and future expectations of it in India. CEPEC is $53 -$55 billion coming out of China's pocket. On the other hand India's trade deficit with China is in the region of $47 billion in 2017. That's money in China's pocket and could almost fund CEPEC.

At the moment if I'm not mistaken, the Kolkata metro has ordered 100 coaches from China, other metros have also ordered stuff from China. India is going big in solar energy. Solar panels is a China speciality.

All this means $$$ for China and the other interesting point is Japan is also a big producer of the stuff that India is looking for.

So do you think China would risk all that $$$ for a war to teach India a lesson? I don't think a mercantilist power like China would do that.

However, that doesn't preclude the fact that things can get out of control and there could a war but that wouldn't be because China wants to teach India a lesson.

I personally am coming to the conclusion that China badly miscalculated at Doklam.

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 19 Jul 2017 08:06

So they are amassing all those forces in North Tibet to attack Nepal.

Coming to think of it, this might be their ploy, while India is distracted by Doklam standoff. This is the best time for them to make for Nepal and grab some territory which they specialize in. In any case they are also giving massive loans to the Nepalese to build dams and roads, and an extension of their Tibetan rail line to make it easy to walk in to Nepal with troops.

If this happens what is the counter strategy for India, other than asking Bhutan to sign the dotted line and become a state in the union ?

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 19 Jul 2017 08:07

Iyersan wrote:http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/chin ... 05448.html
Now, China moves tonnes of military equipment to Tibet. Should India be scared?

Fear fear fear fear. We are a scared nation of peaceniks who shit brix all the time.

The Chinese already have plenty of forces in Tibet - but for actual war those forces have to move down one or more of the roads described in these 2 videos. If it is happening - expect action. Not necessarily war. Also expect news of Indian mobilization
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6wUkKcSBtss

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q-CKlBQdWTI

amit · Post by **amit** » 19 Jul 2017 08:14

Bade wrote:Can anyone explain Mamta's flip flop. Is she on Chinese rolls ? Earlier it was China threat to Gorkhaland movement, now she is saying something different. At least the communists have not changed their story line.

Or is that their meeting with Rahul did not gain dividends, so they are trying Mamata now ?

The only message that China is sending out is that they are mad at us, but do not want war at the same time. Usually, one has to read the opposite meaning of the statements they make. When they say it is Chinese territory that India did incursion on, clearly it means the opposite.

In the case of Mamata everything is possible. As far as Rahul goes I'm quite sure the Chinese have factored in the fact that in any post-BJP/Modi scenario Rahul is not going to a major political factor. On the other hand Mamata, as CM of WB can exert a lot of pressure on the centre with the cry that WB security is at stake. For all you know that could still be the game plan - it seems from her statement - if there's shooting war at Dokalam. Mir Jafar was not a one off phenomenon.

rohiths · Post by **rohiths** » 19 Jul 2017 08:17

shiv wrote:
rohiths wrote:Chinese may attack during Independence day. We would have completed 70 years of Independence and that will be a perfect moment to show India it's place. They have no intention of keeping quiet. Hope we are prepared.
Have you read any reports of Chinese mobilization which they absolutely will need before such an attack? Do you know their current deployments? Or are you merely expressing some deep seated fears?

The continuous escalation in their commie mouth pieces, engagement with Congress and anti nationals in India all suggest that something is imminent. What other day is more significant than Independence day to inflict losses on India. This is similar to terrorists attacking during Independence day. Moreover there is Chinese commie Congress in Sept. Eleven Jin.ping would want absolute control and he can use this incident to proclaim total control.

Arjun · Post by **Arjun** » 19 Jul 2017 08:18

Karthik S wrote:GDP? US:Russia is 10:1. Did that stop Russians from going into Georgia, Syria? US:Vietnam in 1970 was 80:1. We know who came out victorious there.

None of these posed an existential threat to the other - except in the case of Vietnam who expectedly won because their stakes were much higher.

Also, a lot of things have changed since the 70s, with technology and economics mattering a whole lot more in a war situation.

It does seem that the stakes for both China and India are very high at the current juncture...and if indeed China is thinking on the lines I mentioned then India should definitely be prepared to undo China's presence as an unwelcome neighbour to India.

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 19 Jul 2017 08:19

Bade wrote:So they are amassing all those forces in North Tibet to attack Nepal. Coming to think of it, this might be their ploy, while India is distracted by Doklam standoff. This is the best time for them to make for Nepal and grab some territory which they specialize in.

Oh that will be fun. Nepal is not Tibet (a wide plateau thinly populated by mostly docile people). It is mountains upon thickly forested valleys upon more mountains upon hills upon dense jungles, like a layer cake. And it has a generous population of Gorkhas and Madhesis who are not known to cower before aggressors. No expansionist empire, not the Mughals, Yuans, Brishits or anyone else has ever been stupid enough to make a military grab for Nepal, with good reason.

What the Nepalis could do to an invading PLA (with a little help from air assets, elint, satellite imagery, supplies and whatnot from a mysterious neighbour to the south) would indeed be something to watch. In fact the only thing more tasty than seeing the lising supel powel aimed folces kicked in the nuts by our MSC would be to watch Nepal do it. Talk about a Vietnam redux!

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 19 Jul 2017 08:22

a chinese attack to show india its place need not mobilize anything locally. it could be a surprise missile attack released from 100s of km away onto our camps in the doklam region. and there is really no onsite defence or even warning system to control this.

they would then sit back and dare the indian leadership to respond either there or anywhere, while activating MSM/sickular subalterns to lead a shrill media campaign calling for 'statesmanship' and 'peace talks' to 'avoid a damaging conflagration' and how it is all namos fault.

the only credible response will be for prithvi/iaf to wipe out a similar well populated chinese camp at night off the map, release satellite photos and say 'your move next'.

protests and dossiers will be rudely laughed at. dragons do not talk, they burn!

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 19 Jul 2017 08:26

Rudradev wrote:
Bade wrote:So they are amassing all those forces in North Tibet to attack Nepal. Coming to think of it, this might be their ploy, while India is distracted by Doklam standoff. This is the best time for them to make for Nepal and grab some territory which they specialize in.

Oh that will be fun. Nepal is not Tibet (a wide plateau thinly populated by mostly docile people). It is mountains upon thickly forested valleys upon more mountains upon hills upon dense jungles, like a layer cake. And it has a generous population of Gorkhas and Madhesis who are not known to cower before aggressors. No expansionist empire, not the Mughals, Yuans, Brishits or anyone else has ever been stupid enough to make a military grab for Nepal, with good reason.

What the Nepalis could do to an invading PLA (with a little help from air assets, elint, satellite imagery, supplies and whatnot from a mysterious neighbour to the south) would indeed be something to watch. In fact the only thing more tasty than seeing the lising supel powel aimed folces kicked in the nuts by our MSC would be to watch Nepal do it. Talk about a Vietnam redux!

Didn't Nepal go closer to the Chinese? Why would China attack such a country.

PS: If China does attack, can we do another Maharaja Hari Singh with Nepal?

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 19 Jul 2017 08:29

Singha wrote:a chinese attack to show india its place need not mobilize anything locally. it could be a surprise missile attack released from 100s of km away onto our camps in the doklam region. and there is really no onsite defence or even warning system to control this.

Bingo. The missile blitz will be the first and only offensive move. Not anything involving CQB. The PLA wants to demonstrate that they can shock and awe puny India and lay waste to our troops as the TFTA Amrikis and Russians do with third world foes. Using uber tech advantage from standoff distances, to which they are betting we cant or wont reply.

The newly deployed forces in North Tibet will rush in following the massive wave of missile strikes to occupy all of Doklam once our camps there have been destroyed.

Lesson taught. Unless we do something they don't expect. But what?

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 19 Jul 2017 08:30

Singha wrote:a chinese attack to show india its place need not mobilize anything locally. it could be a surprise missile attack released from 100s of km away onto our camps in the doklam region. and there is really no onsite defence or even warning system to control this.

Have you checked our positions in Doklam and their vulnerability - like Taliban got killed by US cruise mijjiles?

And if they don't mobilize at the border - we will simply over run their positions elsewhere. By all means shiver, but think and shiver

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 19 Jul 2017 08:31

One other point to remember is that the China: India GDP multiple is at its peak right now at 5:1, and therefore this is the one point in history where China has the maximum strength relative to India.

At PPP it is 2.5:1. Further a proportion of their economy is meaningless, circular economic activity. Such as mining coke and iron ore to make steel to make bogie wheels to transport ore to make the wagons that transport ore etc etc. An unvirtuous cycle.

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 19 Jul 2017 08:36

Also, whatever forces they have brought to North Tibet will have to come through the long, cold, starkly exposed waste of the Chumbi valley to get to Doklam. Total Balbeque pit.

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 19 Jul 2017 08:40

Bhutan was getting friendlier with China, and still China attacked Bhutan...well there was not much to attack, just grab their land. So if Nepal is getting friendlier with China like Bhutan then it can also expect at least a land grab, to preempt any Indian moves there.

Chumbi valley is the way for India to get to Lhasa, but the only way to hold against China in Tibet, is via Nepal. The terrain is perhaps milder than in Uttarakhand's borders with China. Control of Nepal gives China much closer access to Indian heartland through a buffer state...which is what their intentions are with Bhutan.