Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

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Singha
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Singha » 25 Jul 2017 11:00

i think time has come to withdraw any acceptance of the illegal conquest of tibet, recognize the tibetan govt in exile as the govt of tibet and allot them a formal embassy in new delhi diplomatic area with all protocol.

much overdue and another byproduct of banditjis muddled head.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby g.sarkar » 25 Jul 2017 11:30

Mort Walker wrote:My prediction is that in the event of a conflict, the US will remain neutral and most likely cut off logistics for any weapon system as mandated by the US congress. The Russians will openly side with the Chinese, but still provide India and China logistics - for a price. Then there would be a UNSC meeting to put an arms embargo on both India and China. India would be the one that suffers the most.

IMHO USA would be happy if there is a prolonged war between India and China. It would solve a lot of its problems. Russia because of its financial situation would have to supply weapons to both sides. But it would not welcome a complete win for China.
Gautam

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Kanson » 25 Jul 2017 11:33

Here are the reasons for China for doing what it is doing currently:

Indian is managing a PoK attack & retake of strategic areas or total PoK, that could stop CPEC in its tracks, checkmate Chinese influence around IR and also could stop OBOR totally.

All these heightened low warfare which is termed as routine along LoC and other such actions or recent Sushma's statement in support of PoK resident for medical treatment are outward manifestation of the under current that could bring tectonic shift in Geopolitics & power projection.

There might have been talks on this(at NSA level or higher) with leading powers and they could be willing participate in such elaborate plan. There is a definite alligning of interest here among powers that is against China and OBOR.

Sensing this, that India could cut China's access to PoK, it is trying to offset that by showing its clout of what it can do to India's 'Chicken neck'.

At present, we could simply take it that as warning. India already gamed the eventual possibilities. As EAM said, we are prepared.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Kanson » 25 Jul 2017 11:38

Singha wrote:http://www.firstpost.com/india/india-china-border-row-state-run-global-times-calls-for-war-second-lesson-for-forgetful-india-3852629.html?google_editors_picks=true

China's state-run media yet again fired a fresh salvo at India on Monday. An editorial in the English language daily Global Timesurged China to "teach India a second lesson", in an apparent reference to the 1962 Indo-Sino war.


Such warnings will keep on coming, to pressurize India not to cross the red line. They will keep the pot boiling for the time foreseeable and if needed make it is as ruse to attack India.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Yagnasri » 25 Jul 2017 11:43

We have been preparing ( may not be full) for China since long. Remember the statement that China as enemy number 1 ( G Fernandez?) long back. Development of infra etc in NE etc was undertaken (most of the time in a half hearted manner) Raising of the new Moutain forces based on WB is also to address that issue only. We are building airstrips etc in Arunachal Pradesh. So we can not say that there is no recognition or no preparation.

The main problem is a lack of allocation of funds for defence and also very very bad defence management.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby pankajs » 25 Jul 2017 11:49

Mort Walker wrote:
pankajs wrote:In any case this should be an opportunity to up the military spend. Just the push we may need.


To buy more imported arms? Imports must stop. If anything, this must be a lesson to develop India's domestic Military Industrial Complex (MIC).

How much time do you think it would take to create a reliable MIC? And what should be do in the interim with belligerents on both our borders?

A mix of local production and Imports will be the trend for foreseeable future whether we like it or not. Hope is not a strategy.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Kanson » 25 Jul 2017 11:51

>>The main problem is a lack of allocation of funds for defence and also very very bad defence management.

that was due to *wilful* neglect of previous administration.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Pulikeshi » 25 Jul 2017 11:53

Singha wrote:http://www.firstpost.com/india/india-china-border-row-state-run-global-times-calls-for-war-second-lesson-for-forgetful-india-3852629.html?google_editors_picks=true

China's state-run media yet again fired a fresh salvo at India on Monday. An editorial in the English language daily Global Timesurged China to "teach India a second lesson", in an apparent reference to the 1962 Indo-Sino war.


The Chinese have overplayed their hand imho:
In 1962 the Chinese got a wink & a nudge from USA - will they get any such thing this time around? Can they act without that approval? :P
Seems like India has done a Paki move on them Cheen! The Chinese are reduced to sending dosas (dossiers) via the Global TImes...
Which I am sure no Chinese ever reads!

If China attacks India will be limited to giving India a bloody nose - before the "world" will ask for a ceasefire - this means India is then free to declare free Tibet & end of one China silliness! If China does not attack India it will be reduced to a whimpering bully - either way bring out the beer & popcorn :mrgreen:

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby chola » 25 Jul 2017 11:56

I don't think there is any real danger that Cheen will declare war. The more time that goes by, the less likely. You don't scream and shout to alert the other guy to dig in if you are actually attacking.

It would be nice if they really did attack and force the GOI's hand but I pretty much know they won't. Their MO is pure and simple intimidation to steal a strategic asset on the cheap. They haven't fought a real war in decades and I doubt they would start now when they are in a midst of OBOR and other schemes that is dependent on peace and stability.

The real question is whether we would allow them to get away with this without a crushing defeat that is almost guaranteed by our local superiority along the entire Cheen border.

Any moral "victory" over face or anything intangible will be buried under an avalanche of propaganda and money in the coming years unless we gain territory from this row.

Without war, the chinis will continue with their scheme. Read this NY Times article and think about what will happen in the coming decades if we don't fight today.

OBOR/CPEC is not just about Pakistan but Iran too. While we talk incessantly about Chabahar, they are pulling all of Iran into their web:
https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/07/25/world/middleeast/iran-china-business-ties.html

For China’s Global Ambitions, ‘Iran Is at the Center of Everything

By THOMAS ERDBRINK
JULY 25, 2017
NEYSHABUR, Iran — When Zuao Ru Lin, a Beijing entrepreneur, first heard about business opportunities in eastern Iran, he was skeptical. But then he bought a map and began to envision the region without any borders, as one enormous market.

“Many countries are close by, even Europe,” Mr. Lin, 49, said while driving his white BMW over the highway connecting Tehran to the eastern Iranian city of Mashhad recently. “Iran is at the center of everything.”
...
Like pieces of a sprawling geopolitical puzzle, components of China’s infrastructure network are being put in place. In eastern Iran, Chinese workers are busily modernizing one of the country’s major rail routes, standardizing gauge sizes, improving the track bed and rebuilding bridges, with the ultimate goal of connecting Tehran to Turkmenistan and Afghanistan.
...
Much the same is happening in western Iran, where railroad crews are working to link the capital to Turkey and, eventually, to Europe. Other rail projects will connect Tehran and Mashhad with deepwater ports in the country’s south.
...
“China is dominating Iran,” said Mehdi Taghavi, an economics professor at Allameh Tabataba’i University in Tehran, adding that the “Iranian authorities do not see any drawbacks to being dependent on China. Together, we are moving ahead.”


We are staring at an epic, historic military victory that can vault us into leadership of Asia but on the flip side if we refuse to fight then it will be inevitable strategic strangulation under the weight of chini money and infracture.

Time to fight. Let's roll!
Last edited by chola on 25 Jul 2017 12:00, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby adityadange » 25 Jul 2017 11:58

shiv wrote:This info is in my videos. Will link later

sorry for OT but I cannot send PM yet so posting here.
Shiv saar, your video is spreading within the mangoes. I received it as whatsap forward in two separate groups.
my father also received it. since he knows that i follow defense matters he called me and said look at this video. i just looked at it and said "i know the person who made it." :)

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby ashish raval » 25 Jul 2017 12:01

Mort Walker wrote:This might be the best time for India to test a multi-megaton TNW.


Exactly my thoughts a week back on here, Sir. Now is the time to test surprise weapons a) battlefield tactical nukes - bag packed neutron bombs like US special forces and b) Fusion bombs and c) MIRV tipped with Nukes in IOR region..

We will see how Chi pants will be wet and how stronger than moultail forces cannot shake but can melt away..

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby pankajs » 25 Jul 2017 12:04

No testing of nukes will take place .. Not with India pushing for NSG ... A total deal killer not just for US or China but all the small members that have pledged to support India's candidature.
Last edited by pankajs on 25 Jul 2017 12:06, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Karthik S » 25 Jul 2017 12:05

Agni 6, INS Aridhaman with K4. We got enough muscles to show.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Singha » 25 Jul 2017 12:07

pankajs wrote:No testing of nukes will take place .. Not with India pushing for NSG ... A total deal killer not just for US or China but all the small members that have pledged to support India's candidature.


I am not aware of a scenario - win or lose for the dlagon wherein they will not invoke their veto on new NSG entrants.

however post-N test we can use that as a stick to beat them with and gain political cover and discredit that body and hold it up as a toothless tiger.

treaties are toilet paper for the strong, not the "word of god" - they are drafted to suit whoever is the strong gorillas of the day.

with iran flirting with n-weapons and Noko tested multiple times with no repercussions the NPA lobby in massa stands discredited and weak and DT has no time for them. now is the best window to test with DT in charge imo.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Pulikeshi » 25 Jul 2017 12:08

chola wrote: Time to fight. Let's roll!


India seems better off getting a strategic point victory without a fight, there is no such thing as leadership of Asia...
China can wastefully subsidize Asia if not the World! Their constraints are on how to increase exports as their consumption is not growing...
Whatsoever it is, it will come when the leaders of the ASEAN are in Delhi come next Republic Day. The tortoise is steady... the hare has slipped!
Even if there were such a thing, it is in India's best interest to let others subsidize her transformation - will not got into this more!

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby pankajs » 25 Jul 2017 12:10

^^
Sure on China veto BUT have we scaled back our push? If we are still pushing despite China then you know GOI will not risk a nuke test. The other small countries will join China in vetoing India.

It is not China or US that is the deterrence on testing it is India's own position on getting entry into NSG. The moment we are ready to walk back we can test. BTW, were are we going to test the MT nukes?

Missile test, Mirv, etc possible
Last edited by pankajs on 25 Jul 2017 12:17, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby chola » 25 Jul 2017 12:16

Pulikeshi wrote:
chola wrote: Time to fight. Let's roll!


India seems better off getting a strategic point victory without a fight, there is no such thing as leadership of Asia...


What exactly is a strategic point victory when absolutely nothing changes on the ground?

We should be itching to regain everything we lost in 1962 at the very least.

Victory is STARING us in the face. Just do the needful onlee.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Prasad » 25 Jul 2017 12:26

Just wanted to put in a note of thanks for all the info everyone has put in this thread.

As for driving the Dalai Lama to Potala palace in an open topped Jeep with hundreds of Tibetans receiving him into Lhasa & showering flowers on him, there are a few catches. TAR is a subset of the Tibetan plateau that Tibetans claim to be theirs. Be that as it may, after their mauling by the soviets and soviet help to India in '71, they moved a ton of their strategic presence into their Inner Tibet area. Inner Tibet is pretty much the eastern Kham and amdo. Gansu is pretty much Han by now. According to latest census its 50%-45% approx Tibetan vs Han. Inner Tibet is where they moved their nuclear installations to. The Inner/outer nonsense came about by the Simla Accord in 1914. TAR is their buffer zone between missile launch sites and nuclear labs. So if Lhasa goes, we move that much closer to their nuke sites. Not something they would want. No reason to dhoti shiver or ignore the question of liberation of Tibet. Just putting it out there that we no longer unofficially consider that TAR should be under PRC through various mouthpieces will put enough of a fear in them.
Edit: Forgot to add that Tibet also has Uranium reserves that China mines. And they've been at cutting forests in the NE tibet for decades now making enough of a change in the climate all by themselves. Idiots.

Let us not forget that apart from the logistics issue, fear of a Tibetan uprising behind their frontlines was a reason for ending the fighting in '62. They had to fight off a brutal open rebellion starting in the Kham and Amdo and spread to Lhasa ending with the Dalai Lama fleeing from Lhasa. Now they have a better presence within Tibet but they still have routine protests and disturbances within Tibet that prompts their brigades to ride around towns in their armoured vehicles to show the flag and danda. Any fighting on the border will invite a swift increase in insurgency within Tibet leaving their supply depots and storage facilities of all kinds perfect targets for becoming one with parabrahmam.
Last edited by Prasad on 25 Jul 2017 12:47, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Marten » 25 Jul 2017 12:33

chola wrote:
Pulikeshi wrote:
India seems better off getting a strategic point victory without a fight, there is no such thing as leadership of Asia...


What exactly is a strategic point victory when absolutely nothing changes on the ground?

We should be itching to regain everything we lost in 1962 at the very least.

Victory is STARING us in the face. Just do the needful onlee.

Your objectives are probably tactical. Long term, we need to ensure OBOR is projected and demonstrated as a shaky project that will fall into shambles the moment local insurgent groups target assets. A power plant here and a bridge there, one railway line here and a station there would ensure partners start doubting the viability of trade via the OBOR. That by itself is not our end game -- this would hopefully start a trend of toppling over the hardliners gang backed by Xi. What we want is to win the war within China. Military means are only one aspect. Secondly, restoration of Tibet as an autonomous region or better, a free state will help improve our security prospects in Leh & Ladakh.

Our secondary objective would be to liberate occupied territories such as Aksai Chin, and Shaksgam Valley -- currently we have no routes to Afghanistan or CAR. That should be another objective. Open the tracts and ensure we have easier access to our immediate neighbors Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan and eventually, access to Turkmenistan.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Philip » 25 Jul 2017 12:52

In view of the current scenario,a high-level India dpl/pol mission to all the Central Asian republics should be exercised,to make them aware of Chinese mischief.They too one day could be threatened with a Chinese "lesson" and could bond more closely with India in preventing that from happening.
India staying away from the SCO for now is an absolute.Mr.Modi should say so. Gestures like wishing XI Gins and other flatulent Chinese bigwigs on their Bdays will be taken as a sign of weakness,not politeness. The PM should let his spokespersons do the tough talking to China,he one is sure will speak to the nation when necessary.

Meanwhile,China is losing no time in sending its troops to the IOR.Africa.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/07 ... st-africa/
China sends troops to its 'support base' in East Africa
A soldier of China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) is holding a PLA flag as others stand guard at a military port in Zhanjiang, Guangdong
Neil Connor, beijing
12 JULY 2017 • 1:40PM
Ships carrying Chinese troops tasked with setting up the country's first overseas military base are steaming towards the East African nation of Djibouti.

China calls its new facility a 'support base' and says it will have mainly logistical functions, however observers see it as a key part of Beijing’s plans to expand its global reach through military might.

India in particular views the base with suspicion as New Delhi is concerned that China is confronting it with a ‘ring of pearls’ – a series of assets and alliances across the Indian Ocean and into South-East Asia.

A report from the Pentagon recently suggested that China is likely to open a military base in Pakistan, India’s main rival in Asia. However, China dismissed this.

China started building its base in Djibouti just over a year ago. *(Look at the speed with which it has inducted its forces)
It is stationed just a few miles from a US camp, and France and Japan also have bases in the nation, which is about the size of Wales.
A report by China’s official Xinhua news agency said the decision to set up the base was "made by the two countries after friendly negotiations”.

The report added: “The base will ensure China's performance of missions, such as escorting, peace-keeping and humanitarian aid in Africa and west Asia.

“The base will also be conducive to overseas tasks including military cooperation, joint exercises, evacuating and protecting overseas Chinese and emergency rescue, as well as jointly maintaining security of international strategic seaways.”

China’s defence ministry said that a ceremony was held at a naval pier in the southern Chinese port of Zhanjiang presided over by navy commander Vice Admiral Shen Jinlong.

Neither Xinhua or defence officials gave details on numbers or units of troops travelling to the new base.

Foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang told a daily news briefing the facility would enable China to make "new and greater contributions" to peace in Africa and the world and would benefit Djibouti's economic development.

The People's Liberation Army Daily said in a front-page commentary that the new base would help China fulfil its obligations in ensuring global peace, working with its huge UN peacekeeping force in Africa and its anti-piracy patrols.

The Global Times, a newspaper which often takes a nationalist tone, said the new facility was indeed a military base.
“We will base troops there,” it said. “It's not a commercial resupply point. It makes sense there is attention on this from foreign public opinion.”

Additional reporting by Christine Wei.


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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Prasad » 25 Jul 2017 13:00

+1. Making a move to look NorthWest and bringing the 4 -stans above will help. Clearing out PoK of its rat infestation will help build a nice trade route all the way to Caspian Sea in the west and Astana in the north, bringing all those countries into a trade relationship by road/rail with India. Won't be a moment too soon to bring back areas with Indic history back into close contact. Samarkand, that Taimur made as capital, has a rich buddhist history that Xuanzang saw on his way to India after passing through Kashgar in Xinjiang province today.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Philip » 25 Jul 2017 13:27

This seems to be the core of the issue ,why China is behaving so belligerent under XI Gins,who has problems at home and is decapitating his perceived rivals.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/ ... n-zhengcai
Man tipped as China's future president ousted as Xi Jinping wields 'iron discipline'
Sun Zhengcai rose from farming studies in Hertfordshire to Communist party elite. Many fear his downfall signals turbulent times in Beijing
Sun Zhengcai was ejected from his role for a ‘serious violation of discipline’, China’s People’s Daily reported.

Tom Phillips in Beijing
Tuesday 25 July 2017 07.36 BST Last modified on Tuesday 25 July 2017 07.37 BST
He studied agriculture in rural England and was tipped by some as China’s future leader.

But on Tuesday morning Sun Zhengcai’s political obituary was splashed across the front page of the Communist party’s official mouthpiece in a damning editorial entitled: “Rule strictly over the party with iron discipline.”

“The investigation into comrade Sun Zhengcai sounds the alarm bell for the party,” the People’s Daily article warned, as it announced that the youngest member of China’s political elite had been ejected from power for a “serious violation of discipline”.

Get out! Chinese agents bar access to the 'free' wife of Liu Xiaobo

“Top cadres must hold firm political positions, temper their political characters … and act in a manner consistent with the party’s central committee with [president] Xi Jinping as its core,” the broadsheet declared.

Just a few weeks ago, Sun, a 53-year-old former agriculture minister who studied farming at Hertfordshire’s Rothamstad research centre in the 1990s, was the high-flying party chief of one of the world’s fastest-growing cities, the sweltering Yangtze port of Chongqing.

Many believed he was being groomed for greatness and would use that job – handed to him in late 2012 after the sensational downfall of flamboyant party leader Bo Xilai – as a springboard from which to leap into one of seven highly-coveted spots on China’s top ruling body, the politburo standing committee. Places on that elite council will be up for grabs later this year when Chinese leaders flock to Beijing for their quinquennial enclave, the 19th Communist party congress.

Such a promotion would likely have put Sun – part of the so-called sixth generation of post-revolution leaders – in line to succeed either Xi or premier Li Keqiang at the next party congress in 2022.

But Xi’s unforeseen decision to purge Sun has shredded not only those expectations but also the playbook governing how one-party China conducts political leadership successions. In doing so, some experts fear Xi may also have set in motion a new phase of political turbulence in the world’s number two economy.

“A smooth leadership transition is really crucial to the survival of Chinese Communist party rule in China and this really throws a monkey wrench into the machine,” said Susan Shirk, a US expert in elite Chinese politics who was deputy assistant secretary of state under Bill Clinton.

Shirk said that for almost two decades China’s rulers had abided by an unofficial succession system designed to prevent both cut-throat and destabilising internecine power struggles and the rise of strongman dictators who could cling to power until they died or were violently overthrown.

According to those unwritten rules, presumptive heirs to the Communist party’s top two jobs, general secretary and premier, should be informally anointed five years ahead of a full leadership transition, as had happened with Xi and Li in 2007.

Some had seen Sun as one of those two likely heirs – the other was Guangdong party chief Hu Chunhua, who remains in power – and the decision to bring him down now brought “intense uncertainty about how the game will be played in the future”, Shirk said. “I think that has got to make the people at the top ranks of the Chinese communist party very uneasy about the risks that presents.”

As with much about Chinese politics, the exact nature of Sun’s alleged crimes remains murky, as does the political rationale behind his defenestration.

The first hint of his undoing came when one of Xi’s feared corruption-busting teams descended on Chongqing late last year. In its subsequent report the group accused his administration of failing to eliminate the poisonous and pernicious “ideological legacy” of Bo Xilai, a bitter Xi rival, who had been ousted five years earlier after the murder of British businessman Neil Heywood sparked China’s biggest political scandal in decades.

Then, in mid-July, came the unexpected and unexplained announcement that Sun had been replaced by a Xi loyalist who vowed to purify the city’s “political ecosystem”. Sun is rumoured to have been taken into custody while attending a conference in Beijing.

Cheng Li, the director of the Brookings Institute’s China Center, said it was unclear if Sun was facing accusations of corruption or political offences such as conspiring against Xi: “It could be either – or both.”

Many believe Xi, who some suspect hopes to stay in power beyond 2022, viewed Sun as a power-hungry competitor who had to be eliminated. Li, an authority on the Communist party’s elite, said that even before the purge: “I have talked to many people who know Sun [and they said] … ‘That guy has a very strong personal ambition; you simply cannot believe what he says and what he promises’.

“In Chinese, you use the term ‘yóu’ [slippery or cunning].”


Bill Bishop, the publisher of the influential Sinocism newsletter, said Sun’s demise was further proof that Xi – who took power in 2012 and has been called China’s most dominant leader since Mao – was a masterful and steely political strategist.

As he sought to cement his status as China’s omnipotent ‘Chairman of Everything’, Xi was using anti-corruption investigators to pick off rivals, who were replaced with supporters. Sun’s successor in Chongqing, Chen Min’er, who worked under Xi during his five years as Zhejiang province’s party boss, now appears poised to claim a seat at the party’s top table at this autumn’s congress.

“Xi certainly looks like he would make Machiavelli – and Mao – quite proud,” Bishop said.

Shirk, the chair of the 21st Century China Centre at the University of California, San Diego, said she saw Sun’s downfall not as as sign of Xi’s strength, but of the fragility of China’s political system. “If [Xi] upturns the smooth succession now, I think he’s setting himself up for trouble, for some pushback from the rest of the party elite.

“If they feel they are being put at risk and the whole party is being put at risk by a leader who is trying to claim too much of the power and privilege for himself, then I think there is a risk.

“I’m not saying it is necessarily an elite coup or something like that, but it could be.”

For Sun Zhengcai, there is little doubt what now lies ahead.
“He’ll end up in jail,” said Li.


Additional reporting by Wang Zhen

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby nits » 25 Jul 2017 13:49

BBC View on India \ China Standoff - Why is the India-China border stand-off escalating?

Guys in US - how is US media portraying this (if they are reporting?) and what is there view on it ?

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby schinnas » 25 Jul 2017 13:53

If we take a step back and think, it is very clear that the long term sustainable defensive or offensive strategy w.r.to both China and Pakistan would involve taking back Gilgit Baltistan and PoK back under Indian administration. Areas of Ladhak under illegal Chinese occupation, Akshai Chin., independence of Balochistan, Chabahar port, are all secondary or tertiary to that in terms of strategic importance to India.

India's strategy and tactical muscle building (including diplomatic, intelligence, armed forces, etc) should focus on getting back GB and PoK asap. The window of opportunity is already closing. Ideal time would have been few years before CPEC took a concrete shape and Karakoram highway was re-opened.

Now it is an uphill task, but nevertheless it is a must-do, regardless of the cost. There are no two ways about it.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 25 Jul 2017 13:58

Philip wrote:This seems to be the core of the issue ,why China is behaving so belligerent under XI Gins,who has problems at home and is decapitating his perceived rivals.

I wrote the following five days back here.
Xi is also tightening his noose around the Politburo, dismissing a 'Wen Jiabao' faction member from the highest governing council two days back. The upcoming CPC Congress is important because many posts would need to be filled up and Xi would naturally stuff his supporters in. He would ratchet up nationalism in the run up to the Congress, a usual Chinese tactic. He would therefore like the decibel-level of the rhetoric to go up a few notches. He would be glad if GoI reacts because that would give him an opportunity to raise the heat further. But, he would be careful not to go to war because it may spin out of his control as India can effectively counterpunch in a limited engagement. That would be the end of Xi's 'China dreams'. There are too many knives out for him within the Party & PLA.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby schinnas » 25 Jul 2017 14:08

^^ Sorry to disagree with venerable SS-ji's analysis on this point. IMHO, it is too simplistic a motivation and doesn't seem to add up to fully explain this standoff and rhetoric.

Uncle Eleven is already established as the most powerful ruler of China and is undisputed. All he is doing is doing second level of clean-up to ensure he brings all second and third level leaders under his control. Both PLA top leadership and politburo top leadership are in his pockets already including state commie chiefs in most provinces. All he is working on now seems to be to get _absolute_ control.

All the dissent we keep learning from english language sources need not present the true picture.

We shouldn't over estimate challenges to Xi or internal opposition to him. For our calculations, we can recognize that Xi is more powerful (or weilds absolute unquestionable power) in China than Modi in India and that is saying something. We need not expect this equation to change in next few years atleast unless Xi does something gigantically stupid twice in a row. His position actually offers him enough room to get through one big blunder.

Coming back to the Dolam stand-off, there is enough for Xi to whip up nationalistic sentiment in terms of South China Sea. Aaam Hans dont really know or care about Dolam. Its very likely that Cheen's chest thumping in Dolam stems from their tactical / strategic goals in this region and not a trivial exercise because of CPC meeting in October.

This issue will not have a natural death after CPC meeting. We are better off working on what our strategic and tactial positions should be and assume that Cheen is operating from their strategic and tactical viewpoints outside of any minor internal power struggles.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby shiv » 25 Jul 2017 14:26

ashish raval wrote:
Mort Walker wrote:This might be the best time for India to test a multi-megaton TNW.


Exactly my thoughts a week back on here, Sir. Now is the time to test surprise weapons a) battlefield tactical nukes - bag packed neutron bombs like US special forces and b) Fusion bombs and c) MIRV tipped with Nukes in IOR region..

We will see how Chi pants will be wet and how stronger than moultail forces cannot shake but can melt away..

At this point in time - nuclear weapons are the "last resort" weapons. Testing last resort weapons means that we are scared. really really scared. And not at all confident of prevailing in a a conventional war. If China tests a nuke now -I would laugh because it means that they are not confident of winning a conventional war. Similarly the Chinese may lose the war by laughing at us if we were to test now. No one who matters will be scared.

We lose the psy-ops war by doing things that show how scared we are. The Chinese exploit these fears

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby suryag » 25 Jul 2017 14:31

if not a haseena dhamaka just for cheap thrill reinstate that dd anchor who called him eleven

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby chola » 25 Jul 2017 14:41

schinnas wrote:^^ Sorry to disagree with venerable SS-ji's analysis on this point. IMHO, it is too simplistic a motivation and doesn't seem to add up to fully explain this standoff and rhetoric.

Uncle Eleven is already established as the most powerful ruler of China and is undisputed. All he is doing is doing second level of clean-up to ensure he brings all second and third level leaders under his control. Both PLA top leadership and politburo top leadership are in his pockets already including state commie chiefs in most provinces. All he is working on now seems to be to get _absolute_ control.

All the dissent we keep learning from english language sources need not present the true picture.

We shouldn't over estimate challenges to Xi or internal opposition to him. For our calculations, we can recognize that Xi is more powerful (or weilds absolute unquestionable power) in China than Modi in India and that is saying something. We need not expect this equation to change in next few years atleast unless Xi does something gigantically stupid twice in a row. His position actually offers him enough room to get through one big blunder.

Coming back to the Dolam stand-off, there is enough for Xi to whip up nationalistic sentiment in terms of South China Sea. Aaam Hans dont really know or care about Dolam. Its very likely that Cheen's chest thumping in Dolam stems from their tactical / strategic goals in this region and not a trivial exercise because of CPC meeting in October.

This issue will not have a natural death after CPC meeting. We are better off working on what our strategic and tactial positions should be and assume that Cheen is operating from their strategic and tactical viewpoints outside of any minor internal power struggles.


Agree. If you are in a life or death political struggle at home the last thing you need is a foreign conflict to distract yourself.

Besides which Xi's future at home means little to us. Hell, I've said it before that I rather have Cheen stay communist than having become a democracy with all the backing of the West. Our struggle with China is civilizational. Ideology is fleeting. But if our goal is great power status we'll need to run the chini gauntlet no matter its political stripe.

A commie China with fifth of the per capita income of Hong Kong is a far easier opponent to catch than a democratic Cheen with the same per capita income as Taiwan and unrestrained by the US.

Strike now while Cheen is still commie and under pressure by US and allies!

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby TKiran » 25 Jul 2017 14:45

Chola, it's getting boring... Chill out...

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby shiv » 25 Jul 2017 14:45

Targets in Tibet - there are a lot more - but just load these on GE and look around
https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B3JNY ... jk4Y0wteDA

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby chola » 25 Jul 2017 15:05

TKiran wrote:Chola, it's getting boring... Chill out...


Yeah, boring for me too. Losing hope fast of us doing a 1962 in reverse since Cheen is nothing but hot air and the GOI will never take the offensive even when the balance is heavily in our favor.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby VikramS » 25 Jul 2017 15:09

Singha wrote:i think time has come to withdraw any acceptance of the illegal conquest of tibet, recognize the tibetan govt in exile as the govt of tibet and allot them a formal embassy in new delhi diplomatic area with all protocol.

much overdue and another byproduct of banditjis muddled head.


Indeed. Long due.

Incidentally there are three US CSGs near North Korea right now. And the PLA is moving troops closer to the NK border.

How many fronts does the PLA plan to open?

http://www.cnbc.com/2017/07/24/china-re ... order.html

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby deejay » 25 Jul 2017 15:25

shiv wrote:Targets in Tibet - there are a lot more - but just load these on GE and look around
https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B3JNY ... jk4Y0wteDA


Bridges Doctor Sahib, bridges!!!. There are eleven road bridges and also some key railway bridges. They are the prime targets. Power Stations, Weapons dump, Fuel dumps. Such like targets.

Thank You! for the effort though. :)

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 25 Jul 2017 15:37

schinnas wrote:Uncle Eleven is already established as the most powerful ruler of China and is undisputed. All he is doing is doing second level of clean-up to ensure he brings all second and third level leaders under his control. Both PLA top leadership and politburo top leadership are in his pockets already including state commie chiefs in most provinces. All he is working on now seems to be to get _absolute_ control. . . For our calculations, we can recognize that Xi is more powerful (or wields absolute unquestionable power) in China than Modi in India and that is saying something.

All the dissent we keep learning from English language sources need not present the true picture.

We shouldn't over estimate challenges to Xi or internal opposition to him.

schinnas, Xi is or will never be as powerful as Mao. The Chairman himself and his deputy Zhou couldn't normalize the US-China relationship until Gen. Lin Biao was physically eliminated through a plane crash in remote inner Mongolia. Gen. Lin Biao opposed the rapprochement with the US in 1970. There was a a large number of pro-Moscow generals who gathered around Lin Biao and against Mao & Zhou's pro-US policies. One of the reasons for Cultural Revolution of such a large scale was also to eliminate opposition to Mao. Let us keep that in the background.

I will have to state the following:
  • In dictatorial or communist countries, one never knows when the top man would fall even when seemingly most secure. The history of such countries is full of such instances. Of course, Xi is formally declared by CPC as a “core leader” which places him along with Mao Zedong, Deng Xiaoping, and Jiang Zemin. However, apparent consolidation of power is very deceptive in such setups, including Xi's. This rarely happens in a democratic setup.
  • Xi has presided over the biggest purge within the party and the military after Mao. He has also reduced the strength of the armed forces significantly and this led to joblessness for which he promised to absorb most of the compulsorily-retired armed forces personnel into some kind of constabulary. This hasn't happened. There is widespread disenchantment across the party and the military, the two pillars of Xi's strength
  • When we analyze China, we can't rely upon any news emanating either in Chinese or English from mainland Chinese media. Our analyses must be based on reports by foreign correspondents or dissidents or visitors. Such reports are not flattering [for Xi]. They mention of hundreds of riots over the vast nation that do not get reported at all anywhere. Such riots happen all over an open India too but an authoritarian Communist rule is vulnerable when this happens.
  • We must remember the Depsang & Chumar incidents in 2014 when Xi was our State guest. Initially, everyone was perplexed as to whether Xi was sending a tough message to India even as he seemed to want a deeper economic relationship with the unknown entity Modi who had just become Indian PM. In fact, the Chumar incident rapidly spun out of control and a thousand troops each were deployed along the LAC facing each other. It soon became apparent that the PLA defied Xi and continued with the incident thus belittling Xi's 'famous' tight control over the Chinese military. Returning to China, he addressed the PLA and said, "Headquarters of PLA forces must have absolute loyalty and firm faith in the Communist Party of China, guarantee a smooth chain of command and make sure all decisions from the central leadership are fully implemented". Immediately thereafter, General Fang Fenghui, PLA chief, said in a statement that all PLA forces follow the instructions of President Xi. Many interpreted that President Xi was unhappy that his instructions to the PLA to stand-off at the LAC were not obeyed. We should therefore not assume that Xi has unstinted loyalty either from the Politburo or CPC or PLA just because he has accumulated all powers within himself.
We need not expect this equation to change in next few years atleast unless Xi does something gigantically stupid twice in a row. His position actually offers him enough room to get through one big blunder.

Coming back to the Dolam stand-off, there is enough for Xi to whip up nationalistic sentiment in terms of South China Sea. Aaam Hans dont really know or care about Dolam. Its very likely that Cheen's chest thumping in Dolam stems from their tactical / strategic goals in this region and not a trivial exercise because of CPC meeting in October.

This issue will not have a natural death after CPC meeting. We are better off working on what our strategic and tactial positions should be and assume that Cheen is operating from their strategic and tactical viewpoints outside of any minor internal power struggles.

I have already posted about the multiple objectives of China in the Doka La stand-off. That is the open agenda that Xi would tell his 7-member committe that is the innermost clique. But, we cannot rule out the possibility of Xi's personal agenda.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby ldev » 25 Jul 2017 15:42

Those who believe that just because both China and India are nuclear armed that China wlll not launch a conventional ballistic and cruise missile attack against India are mistaken. It is all about signaling. China has signaled for years that it is developing a conventional missile strike force such as the DF-15, DF-16, df-21 and variants. In fact it has a dedicated unit in the Peoples Liberation Army Rocket Forces (PLARF) for just such an attack as also it's CJ-10 long range cruise missiles. India on the other hand has signaled that it's ballistic missile forces are for a nuclear response. All the Agni missiles are mated to a nuclear warhead. Furthermore, India does not have a launch on warning system in place and has not explicitly signaled that it has. So a missile heading towards India will not be dealt with until it lands and on landing if it is a conventional Chinese warhead, then India by virtue of it's NFU pledge will not give a nuclear response. Furthermore by all available accounts, China has a total conventional missile force, ballistic and cruise, of over 1500 missiles. They constitute it's edge, they are going to use that edge in the event of a conventional war.

For others who have stated, that 1000 cruise missiles will destroy only 1% or less of Delhi, that 1% destruction will ensure that there is no power, with no guarantee as to when power will be restored, no phone service, maybe no internet, You think the fat cats of Lutyen's Delhi will take that well? How about if Ambani's 24 storey building in Mumbai is hit with a missile? All that I am saying is that there could be pressure on GOI to "stop this madness and make peace with China" aided and helped by all the usual suspects. But it is precisely if India grits it's teeth and manages to get through this initial damage that it will be able to carry the war to China and cause China long term damage e.g. nobody has done a detailed assessment of what a blockade of Chinese shipping will do to the Chinese economy. In this age of just in time inventory delivery to what extent will a stoppage in raw material supplies affect manufacturing. What is the extent of the Chinese strategic petroleum reserve? How long before there are shortages of fuel in China? Will a blockade of commercial shipping make some shipping companies stop taking Chinese cargoes because of sky high insurance rates and/or non-availability of insurance? Will e.g. the sinking of just one Chinese nuclear submarine in the IOR by the IN give China pause that India has formidable ASW capability etc.

The image below is US centric but gives an idea of various Chinese missiles and their ranges and why a conventional missile strike will be very much on the cards:

Image

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 25 Jul 2017 15:46

In the meanwhile, Chinese jets intercept U.S. aircraft - AFP
A U.S. surveillance plane was forced to take evasive action after two Chinese fighters intercepted it over the East China Sea, the Pentagon said on Monday.

The incident occurred on Sunday when the two Chinese J-10 warplanes intercepted a U.S. Navy EP-3 reconnaissance plane in international air space west of the Korean Peninsula, Pentagon spokesman Navy Captain Jeff Davis said.

One of the Chinese jets came underneath the U.S. plane at high speed, then slowed and pulled up in front of it, he said. “It was forced to take evasive action to prevent collision,” he said, adding that that it was “uncharacteristic” of the Chinese military. “There are intercepts that occur in international air space regularly, and the vast majority are conducted in a safe manner.”

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby williams » 25 Jul 2017 15:46

nits wrote:BBC View on India \ China Standoff - Why is the India-China border stand-off escalating?

Guys in US - how is US media portraying this (if they are reporting?) and what is there view on it ?


I would say there is very neutral reporting here with a slight tilt towards Indian POV. However, media here today hardly matters. It looks like their primary goal is to embarrass DT regime. What should matter is what does SD and Pentagon circle think about this issue and will they be of any help to India. From what I can gleen from very few public sources is that Uncle will look the others side if at all we trash the Chinese in Tibet and/or IOR. They will be glad to sell weapons. They will start making noise only when there is a major disruption in global economy when such a war extends to let us say mainland China. On the other hand, they will sit in the fence, if India gets trashed with let us say a Chinese missile attack. Overall, I think India has the strategic autonomy to choose her path as long as she does not dent the global economy.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby anupmisra » 25 Jul 2017 16:07

nits wrote:BBC View on India \ China Standoff - Why is the India-China border stand-off escalating?

Guys in US - how is US media portraying this (if they are reporting?) and what is there view on it ?


It is not headline news. No one cares.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Karthik S » 25 Jul 2017 16:19

shiv wrote:Targets in Tibet - there are a lot more - but just load these on GE and look around
https://drive.google.com/open?id=0B3JNY ... jk4Y0wteDA


Except the one in Qindhai, all other targets are within reach of BrahMos.


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