Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

[Iyersan]

NDTV sources indicate, no thinning of forces has taken place

http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/no-troop ... eststories

The thinning of forces story was put out by China and fits their narrative and it is possible Indian journalists have picked it up

Another point Sushma Swaraj talked in Parliament in end July about parallel troop withdrawl, there is no way as per the Chinese MEA statement that soldiers were just 40 by end July

[UlanBatori]

Actually the chinese are totally correct on this one. There are 40 Indian troops, mainly sent there to help the 160 Bhutanese village women with frying pans who are the main force causing the PLA to bee in their bants. There are actually 500 PLA soldiers assigned there, but only about 30 are daring to come forward and confront the Bhutanese villagers. Oh! And there are also the original 5 Bhutanese Traffic Policemen there, who initially advised the PLA to get the h888 out of there before the villagers came in.

[nam]

“India’s standing up to China can only be a boon for Southeast Asian countries even when they don’t say so openly,” he said, “Any major power keeping China in check can only yield geopolitical benefits to Southeast Asia as the region is wary of China’s growing assertiveness.”

Perfect. It has become like this:

[ManishC]

Eleven desperately looking to teach a low cost lesson, and milk it over his extended reign. The ChiPandas in ChanakyaPuri must have gamed NM likely be back for another term, and window of opportunity for lesson teaching shrinking and becoming costlier.
A short, sharp conflict is a distinct possibility with attendant chances of miscalculation.

[sudhan]

Well, China has been taking liberties with Pak.. Such 'unprotected liaisons' can and will result in sudden and unexpected onset of the dreaded 'Tactical Brilliance' syndrome.

[UlanBatori]

Conflict is most possible IMO in Aksai Chin, and end with the Karakoran Hwy and OBORE cut. Doklam is total sideshow.

[rsingh]

40 Indian soldiers and 1 bulldozer is in Chinese territory which in fact is Bhutan's. Weren't there supposed to be 150 Indian soldiers??

No troop withdrawal at Doklam, says India as it rejects China's claims

http://m.ndtv.com/india-news/no-troop-r ... ai-rum=off

As per the report around 350-400 personnel still remain deployed.

I think it is first sign of Chinese retreat (climbdown). Actual message is : Ploblm is almost resolved. India has obeyed China and has lemoved all but 40 tloops and a small buldozer. standoff is almost finished and will fight with dossier. It is easier to fight with MEA then with IA. But MEA spoiled the game by declaring that nothing has changed.

[rsingh]

Actually the chinese are totally correct on this one. There are 40 Indian troops, mainly sent there to help the 160 Bhutanese village women with frying pans who are the main force causing the PLA to bee in their bants. There are actually 500 PLA soldiers assigned there, but only about 30 are daring to come forward and confront the Bhutanese villagers. Oh! And there are also the original 5 Bhutanese Traffic Policemen there, who initially advised the PLA to get the h888 out of there before the villagers came in.

Pardon there are no traffic cops in Bhutan. If you are talking about yak herders, that is different matter.

[UlanBatori]

Cops sent to manage traffic, like hold STOP sign, are called Traffic cops. People sent to manage yaks wandering drunk down the roads are also called Traffic cops. People send to shoo away wandering stupid yellow buffalos are also called Traffic Cops. Surely you are not meaning to insult the brave Bhutanese by suggesting that their Police cannot handle these cowardly geckos?

[ManishC]

Conflict will probably be along the lines of Kargil, initiated by the Chinese - Doka La was an early small scale example. The element of surprise lies with them along the 2000 km front for the next land grab. India was proactive (relatively) in Doka La. Need to invest more in satellite, UAV and Humint to sniff out next place of mischief.

Also, Chinese propensity to define, settle/adjust the border on their terms has to change.
India should reiterate its claim to McMahon line as the defacto border in the east and dispute and salami slice the areas where Chinese are in violation. Let them rush about moving defenses for a change, and more importantly lose face. Nothing delates a bully more than someone not taking it lying down.
Henry McMahon was born in Shimla, and thus is Indian. Any line staked by an Indian is a red line to India and Chicoms would do well to quit making Imperialistic claims based on their occupation of Tibet or defunct Anglo-Russian convention. Same goes for Aksai Chin - China has no business being in erstwhile princely state of J&K. If Chinese can use all past rulers going back to Qin as basis of there claims then what is sauce for the lizard...

[Karthik S]

If Chinese attack Aksai Chin, we should take it back. Shouldn't repeat past mistakes.

[UlanBatori]

Two can play the game and Aksai Chin is vast... So is Xinjiang.

[g.sarkar]

http://www.business-standard.com/articl ... 760_1.html
Doklam standoff: Pull back troops with 'no strings attached', says China
Press Trust of India | Beijing
August 2, 2017 Last Updated at 16:10 IST
China on Wednesday said it has conveyed its firm stand to India that it must take "concrete actions" by immediately pulling back troops from Doklam in the Sikkim section with "no strings attached" to resolve the current standoff.
Providing the details of the July 28 meeting between National Security Advisor (NSA) Ajit Doval and State Councillor Yang Jiechi for the first time, Chinese Foreign Ministry said that the two officials exchanged views on BRICS cooperation, bilateral relations and relevant major problems.
Doval was in Beijing last month to attend the BRICS -- Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa -- NSAs meeting.
Doval and Yang are also the Special Representatives of the boundary talks between the two nations.
Yang held a bilateral meeting with Doval "at his request and in accordance with the practice", the ministry said in a written reply to a question about the discussions relating to the standoff at Doklam which began when China started constructing a road in the area.
"Yang Jiechi expressed China's stern positions and explicit requirements on the trespass of Indian border troops into China's territory at the Sikkim section of China-India boundary," it said, indicating that there was no breakthrough during the talks between Doval and Yang.
India's position on the issue was made clear by External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj last month, saying both sides should first pull back their troops for any talks to take place, favouring a peaceful resolution of the border standoff.
India also conveyed to the Chinese government that the road construction would represent a significant change of status quo with serious security implications for it."
.....

Gautam

[UlanBatori]

Modi has already given out an important fact: he asked ppl to not buy Chinese crackers, lamps, clothes, sweets or toys for Diwali. Every Chinese threat helps the boycott gather steam. In another month I predict that boycott will be over 10%, and another month, 30%+ If Chinese claim any military victory the boycott will head towards 100%. Any chest-thumping will bring more boycotts all over SE Asia and maybe US and Europe.

[Lisa]

http://www.business-standard.com/articl ... 914_1.html
Doklam crisis begins winding down as both sides reduce troops - Shooklow [One needs to be careful about this gent's farts]

The 45-day confrontation in Doklam has begun de-escalating. Top army sources tell Business Standard that the number of Chinese border guards at the contested border tri-junction between India, China and Bhutan is now down to just 40, from a peak of over 300 at the end of June. Meanwhile, many Indian troops have also been pulled back. From a peak of almost 400 at the height of the crisis, there are now just 150 Indian soldiers in the contested Doklam bowl. In addition, a full Indian Army brigade, consisting of almost 3,000 troops, stands poised in Indian territory near the ...

Rest behind paywall

Pankajsji, paywalls in India don't really work. Just right click and View Page Source and you will normally find the text content at the bottom of the page.

[Rudradev]

An article on Politico about how the US is managing its perceived Chinese threat.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/08/0 ... 3?lo=ap_f1

Relevance to India: two fold.

1) On trade, the US itself is no longer restricting itself to the WTO's arbitration (a pattern it has mostly followed since the Bill Clinton era) but opening an investigation under its own Trade Act of 1974 (Section 301). The consequent weakening of the WTO will be a good thing... giving India its own opportunity to buck the WTO and impose tariffs and barriers unilaterally against Chinese dumping.

2) In a wider sense, DupleeCity has begun to openly confront the PRC's game of proliferating to and propping up nuclear rogue states as the destabilizing effectors of its foreign policy. One of these states, as we (and the Americans) know is Bakistan. The PRC was counting on CPEC/ "Belt and Road" to somehow confer international legitimacy and respectability on its relationship with Bakistan (conduit to the world, key part of pan-Asian trade corridor etc.) However, with some deft maneuvering by India's MEA mandarins, the international focus can now be drawn back to what the relationship is really about: nuclear proliferation and terrorist blackmail.


Sources: Trump administration to take action against China

By ANDREW RESTUCCIA and DOUG PALMER

08/01/2017 11:50 PM EDT

The Trump administration is preparing to take action against China over trade as soon as this week, two administration officials familiar with the issue told POLITICO.

President Donald Trump will soon call on U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer to open an investigation against China under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974 for violations of U.S. intellectual property rights and forced technology transfers.

...

Trump's aides have been deeply divided on trade, with top trade adviser Peter Navarro and chief strategist Steve Bannon calling for aggressive measures, while others, like National Economic Council Director Gary Cohn, have urged caution. But an administration official said the decision to launch a Section 301 investigation won broad support among the president's ideologically diverse staff.

...

Trump has grown increasingly frustrated with China in recent months, fuming in public and in private about what he views as the country’s unfair trade practices. He has separately complained that China isn’t doing enough to stop North Korea from developing a nuclear weapon capable of striking the United States.

The pending decision would dramatically escalate tension between the United States and China — and it could result in steep tariffs on Chinese goods.

U.S. companies have complained they are often forced to share valuable technology with Chinese counterparts as a condition of doing business in the country. Section 301 allows the U.S. to impose unilateral duties against countries that impose barriers to U.S. exports.

...

Frustration that China is not doing more to persuade North Korea to rein in its nuclear program seems to be motivating the administration to fire a shot across the bow on the trade front, one source said. Many in the business community are likely to silently cheer the action as long overdue, but others may be worried about a further souring of the business environment and possible Chinese retaliation, a second source said.

...

The Commerce Department is separately completing its own investigation into steel imports that could result in additional actions against China. That investigation is ongoing and likely won’t be unveiled this week, sources said.

Section 301 has not been widely used since the creation of the World Trade Organization in 1995, when the United States began to litigate disputes through the Geneva-based body rather than take through unilateral action. However, it remains on the books as a potential tool.

Aggrieved industries can file a petition asking for an investigation into unfair trade practices, or the USTR can self-initiate a probe. Once the trade agency makes a finding of unfair trade, it would be empowered to seek a negotiated settlement - backed up with the threat of possible retaliation if no deal is made.

...

Meanwhile, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) and other Democrats are set to roll out new trade legislation Wednesday with a special emphasis on stopping China and other countries from cheating on trade rules and manipulating markets for an unfair advantage.

Schumer has repeatedly goaded Trump to make good on campaign promises to get tough on China. On Tuesday, he urged the president to punish Beijing for its failure to stop North Korea by blocking it from making any further purchases of U.S. companies. “If China does not change its posture, the U.S. should take clear and firm action to seek to ensure China’s cooperation," Schumer said.

So for various reasons, the drive to confront Chinese threat in Washington is now bipartisan.

The Democrats’ new bill is part of their effort to convince voters they can offer “a better deal” for the middle class than the Republicans can under Trump.

[g.sarkar]

"Pankajsji, paywalls in India don't really work. Just right click and View Page Source and you will normally find the text content at the bottom of the page."
Pankajji, It is over here, in case you are still interested:
http://ajaishukla.blogspot.de/2017/08/d ... -both.html
Gautam

[rsingh]

http://www.business-standard.com/articl ... 760_1.html
Doklam standoff: Pull back troops with 'no strings attached', says China
Press Trust of India | Beijing
August 2, 2017 Last Updated at 16:10 IST
China on Wednesday said it has conveyed its firm stand to India that it must take "concrete actions" by immediately pulling back troops from Doklam in the Sikkim section with "no strings attached" to resolve the current standoff.
Providing the details of the July 28 meeting between National Security Advisor (NSA) Ajit Doval and State Councillor Yang Jiechi for the first time, Chinese Foreign Ministry said that the two officials exchanged views on BRICS cooperation, bilateral relations and relevant major problems.
Doval was in Beijing last month to attend the BRICS -- Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa -- NSAs meeting.
Doval and Yang are also the Special Representatives of the boundary talks between the two nations.
Yang held a bilateral meeting with Doval "at his request and in accordance with the practice", the ministry said in a written reply to a question about the discussions relating to the standoff at Doklam which began when China started constructing a road in the area.
"Yang Jiechi expressed China's stern positions and explicit requirements on the trespass of Indian border troops into China's territory at the Sikkim section of China-India boundary," it said, indicating that there was no breakthrough during the talks between Doval and Yang.
India's position on the issue was made clear by External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj last month, saying both sides should first pull back their troops for any talks to take place, favouring a peaceful resolution of the border standoff.
India also conveyed to the Chinese government that the road construction would represent a significant change of status quo with serious security implications for it."
.....

Gautam

This was something predicted on BR. Really these guys are insane.

[pankajs]

Bandhus no ji, etc for me and Thanks for the links and work arounds.

[ManishC]

^^^ Incognito mode on Chrome defeats most paywall type restrictions.

[VKumar]

In case of an Indo China war, I expect TSP to join in, even though the Chinese never opened another front during Indo Pak wars. Firstly, the pakis will want to establish thier usefulness to chinese, also to take advantage of the situation, finally, realizing that this would be their last ever hope to defeat India.

[Deans]

Anti dumping duty imposed on Chinese radial tyres. The message is slowly being sent.

[g.sarkar]

An article on Politico about how the US is managing its perceived Chinese threat.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/08/0 ... 3?lo=ap_f1
.....
Sources: Trump administration to take action against China
By ANDREW RESTUCCIA and DOUG PALMER
....

Rudradevji,
Seeing is believing. And I do not even believe 50% of what I see. 90% of what DT administration says is BS and contradictory. The US-China relationship benefits both sides. It would be hard (but not impossible) to break the relationship cold turkey, but costs will have to be paid if this has to happen. There is currently no political will for that. More likely scenario is China will do nothing with Korea, and US will do nothing about China trade. Both sides will blow hot and blow cold and then calm down. DT just loves such hot and cold BJs.
As far as India is concerned, the US will not solve the Pakistan, Kashmir or China problems. It may just pay some lip service and egg us on. India has to solve them by itself if ever wants to be a powers that is reckoned with. That is the price of becoming a world power.
Gautam

[Iyersan]

There will be war. And my only regret is that I am not in the armed forces. But I will grind my axe for if push comes to shove I will behead the Chinese on my motherland. Har har Mahadev!!!.

[Iyersan]

There will be war. And my only regret is that I am not in the armed forces. But I will grind my axe for if push comes to shove I will behead the Chinese on my motherland. Har har Mahadev!!!.

[pankajs]

Nitin A. Gokhale‏Verified account @nitingokhale 4h4 hours ago

So here's the ground situation. No change in numbers or posture at Dolam. Abhi bhi atka hua hai (it--the standoff--is still on) is the word!

[ArjunPandit]

There will be war. And my only regret is that I am not in the armed forces. But I will grind my axe for if push comes to shove I will behead the Chinese on my motherland. Har har Mahadev!!!.

1. I too think there will be some military action (not full blown war).
2. Chinese have tied the knots so much that if they get out of this mess without firing a shot, they will show their true worth of inflatable dragon.
3. The problem is if they get bloody nose (which they will), it will be even worse. However, they are master of propaganda and their friends in China/Clinton News network(CNN) in the form of democrats will certainly come to their aid.
4. My prediction, they will behave almost like pakis, demonize India, claim victory and hide their dead bodies, shout in public forms UN and gobarX(gobar times)

[VKumar]

Practically the window of opportunity is closing for the Chinese ( if they ever want to grab more territory or to show their strength), for the traitors in India, since 2019 is approaching. TSP are just pigs waiting to wallow in the muck.

[VKumar]

The weather is summer in Tibet but floods in Assam making movement difficult for us. Will they dare to risk Tibet and POK?

[Rudradev]

An article on Politico about how the US is managing its perceived Chinese threat.

http://www.politico.com/story/2017/08/0 ... 3?lo=ap_f1
.....
Sources: Trump administration to take action against China
By ANDREW RESTUCCIA and DOUG PALMER
....

Rudradevji,
Seeing is believing. And I do not even believe 50% of what I see. 90% of what DT administration says is BS and contradictory. The US-China relationship benefits both sides. It would be hard (but not impossible) to break the relationship cold turkey, but costs will have to be paid if this has to happen. There is currently no political will for that. More likely scenario is China will do nothing with Korea, and US will do nothing about China trade. Both sides will blow hot and blow cold and then calm down. DT just loves such hot and cold BJs.

Very possible. All that has actually happened as of now, is that a leak has been made to US media about an *intended* plan by Trump sarkar to review trade policy with PRC. Could be nothing but a "dhamki" to the Chinese just as the Gobar Times is endlessly making against India.

The significance is that Bill Clinton's policy of first bringing China into WTO, and then essentially appointing WTO as the apex court of international trade arbitration (over and above even the sovereign laws of the US), is being questioned within America for the first time.

We have to understand that WTO was essentially the "Seat of Power" for the G2 Co-dominium envisioned by the Clinton administration. It was the original "non-state actor" created to enforce a certain globalist politico-economic order that has held good through the Clinton and GW Bush years.

Even in the Obama years, while a pivot to Asia was mulled, the co-dominium enthroned in its WTO Singhasana remained sacrosanct.

That the US is even talking about circumventing the WTO for the first time in 20+ years of dealing with China, is significant.

As far as India is concerned, the US will not solve the Pakistan, Kashmir or China problems. It may just pay some lip service and egg us on. India has to solve them by itself if ever wants to be a powers that is reckoned with. That is the price of becoming a world power.
Gautam

No doubt about that.

The relevance to India, as mentioned in my original post, is that if WTO is bypassed by the US in its confrontation of China, it becomes that much easier for us to bypass it as well. China gets a lot of its international prestige by belonging to (and dominating) various international fora... P5 of UNSC, WTO, Nuclear Suppliers Group, APEC, SCO among them. It uses its membership and domination of these institutions to throw its weight around (e.g. blocking India's entry into NSG, blocking UN designation of various Pakis as terrorists, hectoring various countries for hosting the Dalai Lama, etc.). The weakening of these institutions, therefore, provides India with an opportunity to level the playing field.

But of course it is up to India to seize the opportunity and do that.

[UlanBatori]

There will be war. And my only regret is that I am not in the armed forces. But I will grind my axe for if push comes to shove I will behead the Chinese on my motherland. Har har Mahadev!!!.

Needs pinned thread where we can save these. The terms

Go up there and bring them down by the scruff of the neck!

and

Taking a knife to a gunfight

come to my evil and cynical mind.

I am not in the armed forces.

A fortunate circumstance, if I may respectfully venture an opinion without sticking my neck out (figuratively speaking).
If u "But I will grind my axe for if push comes to shove behead I will Chinese ON UR MOTHERLAND", birather, u have already lost the war: u r fighting inside ur territory, hand-2-hand in the home or street, because the regular armed forces have been destroyed.
Or u r in a street riot mob and killing innocent civilians/legitimate visitors minding their own business inside India. JFYI, IITC, throwing gas cylinders and disemboweling pregnant wimmens in the street with trishuls is the more accepted mode.

[UlanBatori]

I am dhoti-shivering about the possibility of the Tarrel and Failer and Tight-A**ed Fliend venturing a really bad terror attack to help the sholter and squattel fliend. No wonder, as someone else posted, anti-terrorist ops are in full swing and Shiv's "typeC" obstructionist "civilian" terror-supporters are also getting shot if they get in the way. Can't afford a bad terror attack a la Godhra which we are pretty sure, was done by the Chinese/their commie sh1ts inside India to help out the Pakis, just when India was ready for a really really massive jhapad all the way to the chai-dookan @ RYK.

[Marten]

I am dhoti-shivering about the possibility of the Tarrel and Failer and Tight-A**ed Fliend venturing a really bad terror attack to help the sholter and squattel fliend. No wonder, as someone else posted, anti-terrorist ops are in full swing and Shiv's "typeC" obstructionist "civilian" terror-supporters are also getting shot if they get in the way. Can't afford a bad terror attack a la Godhra which we are pretty sure, was done by the Chinese/their commie sh1ts inside India to help out the Pakis, just when India was ready for a really really massive jhapad all the way to the chai-dookan @ RYK.

Surely this would have been gamed. We are ALWAYS on tenterhooks expecting this feint every time the Bakis are in trouble.

[UlanBatori]

It was **NOT** gamed in 2002, sadly. All Rapid Action forces that could have reached earthquake-recovering Guj were beyond the last rivers to the Yellow Sea, and other states were too scared to spare any polis. This time I am sure they would have thought up something worse, they do this full-time remember whenever they have a shortage of goats in the harem.
IMO it set back the launch date of Op. Pa...m by 2 months and by then it was irrelevant. Just thinking out loud, Northeast is the most likely vulnerable point, followed by W.Bengal (riot environment already exists), UP, Bihar. Or maybe far down south. Or in Arunachal. Who knows, other than the cheeni-pakis? If you see any commie-pakis buying air tickets to conferences in The Bhesht scheduled for, say, March 2018, investigate them. That was the sign that was missed in October 2001. Oberlin Conference, March 2002. Only bijnej transacted was a Resolution Condoming Indian Govt. for Jenn-O-Side. Conf. planning occurred in Oct. 2001 in (PRC funded) Oberlin College, Ohio. Serious prep in January 2002.

[sanjaykumar]

Day what? 52? All crouching tiger inflatable dragon.

[UlanBatori]

The message that is so tough to convey to 404 desi masses is:
1) PRC and Pak leaders do not hesitate to implement plans that kill THOUSANDS of Indians as long as they are safe from retaliation
2) They spend much of their time planning and dreaming of such things.
3) Credible deterrence involves reminding them that they can feel real pain.

Item 3 can be done today with a massive nationwide and diaspora-wide boycott of Chinese goods.
Also with support for Balochistan, Balwaristan, Pakhtoonistan, North Dharmasala and Xinjiang Freedom Movements.

[ldev]

1) PRC and Pak leaders do not hesitate to implement plans that kill THOUSANDS of Indians as long as they are safe from retaliation
3) Credible deterrence involves reminding them that they can feel real pain.

Item 3 can be done today with a massive nationwide and diaspora-wide boycott of Chinese goods.
Also with support for Balochistan, Balwaristan, Pakhtoonistan, North Dharmasala and Xinjiang Freedom Movements.

And most imporant to have offensive weapons and delivery systems, short of crossing the nuclear threshold, capable of inflicting real pain in China vs a far away colonial outpost such as Tibet where more Tibetans than Chinese will die from Indian military action.

Unfortunately India continues to believe that dropping a few bombs in Tibet will hurt China in any meaningful way. Other than loss of H&D, nothing will happen to the real China that matters, which is located far away on the eastern seaboard.

[SriKumar]

--kaboom--

[ldev]

We should not make the mistake of conflating Chinese capability with their current intentions. If the capability exists, intentions can change.

Interesting excerpt from National Interest:

Missile Strikes on U.S. Bases in Asia: Is This China's Real Threat to America?

Gonzalez and Shugart are both commanders in the Navy, and the latter currently serves as a military fellow at CNAS. In the report, they argue that China could use its missile forces to conduct a surprise preemptive strike against U.S. military bases in the region to prevent U.S. intervention in a conflict over Taiwan or the Senkaku Islands. “Driven partly by distinct first-mover advantages associated with the employment of modern long range precision weaponry, such a preemptive strike appears consistent with available information about China’s missile force doctrine and military strategy,” they write.

Chinese leaders began building up these capabilities after being shocked by America’s overwhelming victory over Saddam Hussein’s forces in the First Gulf War. This led Beijing to transform its Second Artillery Corps from a primarily nuclear force into one consisting of nuclear and precision conventional missiles (both ballistic and cruise). This strategy sought to capitalize on China’s asymmetric advantages such as geography and the low cost of producing missiles.

To achieve a preemptive strike against America’s military bases, China has procured a massive missile force. In fact, Beijing has the largest land-based missile arsenal in the world. According to Pentagon estimates, this includes 1,200 conventionally armed short-range ballistic missiles, two hundred to three hundred conventional medium-range ballistic missiles and an unknown number of conventional intermediate-range ballistic missiles, as well as two to three hundred ground-launched cruise missiles. Many of these are extremely accurate, which would allow them to destroy targets even without nuclear warheads. As a Rand Corporation report noted, Chinese missiles’ “circular error probabilities have decreased from hundreds of meters in the 1990s to as few as five or ten meters today.” Some of them, including the much discussed DF-21D “carrier killer” missile, have maneuverable reentry vehicles that further improve accuracy and allows them to evade missile defense systems.

Shugart and Gonzalez also point out that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has carried out drills simulating preemptive attacks against America’s regional military assets. In one such instance, the PLA Rocket Forces “appears to have been practicing on several ship targets of a similar size to U.S. Arleigh Burke–class destroyers moored in a mock port that is a near-mirror image of the actual inner harbor at the U.S. naval base in Yokosuka.” This is illuminating, the authors note, because the only way the Chinese military could catch three U.S. ships in port is if they conducted a complete surprise attack.

After reviewing Chinese capabilities and doctrines, the authors try to simulate such an attack to judge its effectiveness. Interestingly, while they believe China would strike U.S. bases in Japan and even some Japanese forces, they assume Beijing would avoid attacks on Korea “in order to prevent a distracting second front on the Korean Peninsula while pursuing its primary military goals elsewhere.” In their simulation, they also assume that Beijing would not initially target America’s base at Guam since it is U.S. territory and China would want to prevent an escalation that could result in America bombing mainland China.

Shugart and Gonzales run two different models of a simulated preemptive attack, keeping in mind what they know about U.S. and allied missile defense systems in the region. In both models, “enough ballistic missiles seemed likely to leak through to cause highly significant damage to U.S. bases and forces in the region.” Some of the results of the attacks include:

• “Almost every major fixed headquarters and logistical facility struck, with key headquarters struck within the first few minutes of the conflict.”

• “Almost every U.S. ship in port in Japan struck pierside by ballistic missiles.”

• “In most cases, cratering by ballistic missiles of every runway and runway-length taxiway at all major U.S. air bases in Japan.”

• “As a result of runway cratering, headquarters destruction, and air defense degradation, more than 200 trapped U.S. aircraft destroyed on the ground in the first hours of the conflict.”

Then the authors speak of a silver lining in the form of the US ABM system THAAD:

One silver lining, according to the authors, is that a more robust missile-defense system in Japan—including the deployment of Terminal High Altitude Air Defense (THAAD) and Aegis ballistic-missile-defense destroyers dedicated to protecting U.S. bases in Japan—could reduce the damage of such a surprise attack. While a significant number of missiles would still penetrate defenses in Okinawa, the damage there would be reduced. More importantly, other U.S. bases in Japan that are situated further away from China could intercept enough missiles to allow planes to get off the ground and ships out of port.

And China in turn is practicing missile drills to overwhelm US ABM THAAD defences:

Ankit Panda‏Verified account @nktpnd 3h3 hours ago
More
Ankit Panda Retweeted Ankit Panda
Update: PLARF drill against a THAAD battery mockup on 7/29 involved 4 x DF-26C IRBMs, 10 x DF16A MRBMs, and 6 x CJ-10 LACMs. (20 total.)

To overwhelm US THAAD batteries, China practiced a missile drill targeting that battery with 14 ballistic missiles and 6 cruise missiles. This drill was conducted on July 29.

All that I am saying is that I just hope that the Indian military is gaming all sorts of scenarios vs China including a bolt out of blue missile attack OR an ASAT attack against Indian satellites or BOTH. Better to be prepared than sorry.

[UlanBatori]

[quote="SriKumar"][/quote]
Aiyyoooo!!! Will ppl pls kindly THINK b4 posting, hain? Which side r ppl on, anyway?

Message is relevant today all the more.