Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby rajpa » 07 Aug 2017 21:02

Marten wrote:So what happens now? They just look for bad weather and fire in arty just before the window closes, and claim victory!?! They're looking more and more than locked up bullies who can only bark. I would personally like this situation to continue because it makes them look more like a toothless tiger. A real conflict of any type or size would still mean they are willing to shed blood.


Nothing happens. They wasted everybody's time. Just chill and read up on the entertaining headlines everyday from Gobar Whines.


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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby ramana » 07 Aug 2017 21:17

pankajs wrote:One gent suggested that we cut official ties with China and close their embassy in India because of Doka La impasse. Now lets take that logic to its *extreme* to test its soundness.

Nepal is tilting China way. Lets cut diplomatic relation with Nepal. What about Sri Lanka? How about Maldives? Would Bangladesh be next? Pretty soon we will be *isolated* in our own neighborhood.

What about ASEAN countries? Next look at the Gelf. After that we should ask the same questions wrt Europe followed by Americas. Posing the question "Are you with us or with China?" we will soon find ourselves *isolated* worldwide.

The fastest way loose support is to ask *small and very weak* countries to choose between a *stronger* China and a *weaker* India. NEVER pose that question unless it is ABSOLUTELY CRISIS situation because guess who they will choose to back? China of course! except for countries in our immediate neighborhood.



Why are you talking like Money Shaker Aiyer and Jairam Ramesh?
Have you not learned anything on BRF all these years?

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Prasad » 07 Aug 2017 21:19

We've heard of tripe from gobar times. I heard elsewhere that xinhua is usually not as unrestricted in its bluster as gobar times and other chinese media. But man, if this is restricted -
On how cpc & cmc & comlade xi have brought piss & tranquility to yakherderland - http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017- ... 505999.htm

And this - http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017- ... 505508.htm If Xinhua is a virtually an official mouthpiece then they definitely didn't like Vietnamese trying to c0ckblock them at the ASEAN summit. Also speaks of how confident they are, having co-opted cambodia and others, at ensuring their writ runs over the SCS.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Iyersan » 07 Aug 2017 21:20

What exactly is China trying to do? It's made a fool of itself if it doesn't attack. India is winning

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby ramana » 07 Aug 2017 21:22

Iyersan wrote:What exactly is China trying to do? It's made a fool of itself if it doesn't attack. India is winning


I guess I asked the wrong person.

What do you think they were doing?
What are their aims?

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby pankajs » 07 Aug 2017 21:24

ramana wrote:
pankajs wrote:One gent suggested that we cut official ties with China and close their embassy in India because of Doka La impasse. Now lets take that logic to its *extreme* to test its soundness.

Nepal is tilting China way. Lets cut diplomatic relation with Nepal. What about Sri Lanka? How about Maldives? Would Bangladesh be next? Pretty soon we will be *isolated* in our own neighborhood.

What about ASEAN countries? Next look at the Gelf. After that we should ask the same questions wrt Europe followed by Americas. Posing the question "Are you with us or with China?" we will soon find ourselves *isolated* worldwide.

The fastest way loose support is to ask *small and very weak* countries to choose between a *stronger* China and a *weaker* India. NEVER pose that question unless it is ABSOLUTELY CRISIS situation because guess who they will choose to back? China of course! except for countries in our immediate neighborhood.



Why are you talking like Money Shaker Aiyer and Jairam Ramesh?
Have you not learned anything on BRF all these years?

I did specify that I was going to stretch the logic of the *extreme*. And we have folks on this forum recommending us breaking diplomatic relation with China just because of Doka La standoff.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby UlanBatori » 07 Aug 2017 21:43

If someone threatens war, it is a good plan to break off relations. This bijnej of continuing Most Favored Nation (MFN) status to terrorists and thieving bullies who kill our people, seems asinine. make them send messages through the Sri Lankan embassy.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Prasad » 07 Aug 2017 21:54

Our own media stating that imports from china are a major portion of our imports but share of exports to india are a much smaller part for china and hence a boycott is bad and unlikely to work. This is then gleefully quoted by chinese media. We've got enough idiots within. And our media management needs to improve.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Iyersan » 07 Aug 2017 22:10

ramana wrote:
Iyersan wrote:What exactly is China trying to do? It's made a fool of itself if it doesn't attack. India is winning


I guess I asked the wrong person.

What do you think they were doing?
What are their aims?

My humble 2 cents:
China completely believes in the fact that its sole competitor is the US
To that end they must first establish their dominance in the Asian region first..
Coupled with that is the fact that they have a huge hunger for natural resources... there is no free lunch strategy is applied to countries that take the requisite help ... finance , military etc ( Africa, SL, Myanmar, BD)
I do believe that the world also respects power... of course people would argue power with responsibility.... but a guy with a begging bowl already doesn't care for the niceties of proper decorum ( Pakistan)
To conquer Asia they have to subdue the closest opponent .... India
How does one do it.... military, economic and law fare, psyfare... right now they are trying the least cost option.... to maximise gains with least expense of resource ( pure operations theory).... here is where they are not receiving the right returns.... but one must never forget that Asia and particularly Chinese are a high context society... loss of face is truly very demeaning..... what I don't understand is 60 days is already quite a huge loss of face.... coupled with the fact that not a single day has gone by without any provocations from the Chinese media houses + defence+ foreign ministry.... what are they waiting for? BRICS is early September... even if the standoff fizzles out by Modi and XI bilateral with simultaneous withdrawal India wins.... the weather from August to Sept is apt for a border war... or is the plan more sinister? Is the standoff calculated to divert attentions from SCS and NoKo?Do they plan to hit us elsewhere?

There are many dispersed thoughts in my mind, I might need to look at it in a mind map format... Maybe Doklam is not an isolated incident

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby shiv » 07 Aug 2017 22:21

Some of these things are difficult to quantify, but here is a pdf of the monetary cost to new York after 9-11.
http://resilience.abag.ca.gov/wp-conten ... 20City.pdf

In 1 year the cost was estimated as 80-90 billion. One major city - two buildings

Now what would be the cost of reconstructing 20 Chinese cities - each of which lose say 50,000 buildings and 100,000 people?
What would be the cost in loss of exports and trade?

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby shiv » 07 Aug 2017 22:26

Iyersan wrote:loss of face is truly very demeaning..... what I don't understand is 60 days is already quite a huge loss of face.... coupled with the fact that not a single day has gone by without any provocations from the Chinese media houses + defence+ foreign ministry.... what are they waiting for?

The loss of face will be insignificant (and the media barking forgotten) if they do nothing. Real loss of face is if they undertake military action. Let there be no doubt about it - India is preparing for any type of Chines provocation. India has taken a lot of shit from China - and no Indian will accept another defeat. In the next conflict China is going back humiliated and hurt. If China wants war.

China has also extended the period of enmity it has made with India and I am hoping that enough damage is done for Indians to go off Chinese goods.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Iyersan » 07 Aug 2017 22:32

shiv wrote:
Iyersan wrote:loss of face is truly very demeaning..... what I don't understand is 60 days is already quite a huge loss of face.... coupled with the fact that not a single day has gone by without any provocations from the Chinese media houses + defence+ foreign ministry.... what are they waiting for?

The loss of face will be insignificant (and the media barking forgotten) if they do nothing. Real loss of face is if they undertake military action. Let there be no doubt about it - India is preparing for any type of Chines provocation. India has taken a lot of shit from China - and no Indian will accept another defeat. In the next conflict China is going back humiliated and hurt. If China wants war.

China has also extended the period of enmity it has made with India and I am hoping that enough damage is done for Indians to go off Chinese goods.

Sir with all due respect.... chinas arrogance theory will force it to go to war with India over this incident. No doubt they will drown in their own blood.....coz if they don't they cannot prove their Asia dominance theory... its actually an irony of their own political dispensation that will draw them to war...

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Iyersan » 07 Aug 2017 22:37

I love the Chinese style. Threaten enemy. Start war. Get hammered. Quote Sun Tzu to own people & justify withdrawal. Look pious & "mature".

Major Gaurav Arya's quote on twitter

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Manish_Sharma » 07 Aug 2017 22:38

pankajs wrote:I did specify that I was going to stretch the logic of the *extreme*. And we have folks on this forum recommending us breaking diplomatic relation with China just because of Doka La standoff.


Well though probably you're not referring to my post, but still I'll use this opportunity to make my point:

1. Money Shock
Just like NaMo gave DeMo shock destroying the wealth of corrupt in one night. I think in case we break diplomatic ties with prc it will give us maneuverability overnight to kill 80 billon $ imports from them Instead of long slow painful methods using law-loops like anti-dumping and imposing taxes etc.

With this we also should make a law that no company using any kind of chinese part will be penalised and their assets ceased.

2. Rewarding neighbours :

Imagine if 30 billion of this 80 billion is spread out to Japan, Russia, Vietnam-Cambodia-Thai-Lanka and other SE neighbours.

3. Our own growth
There will be shortages of stuff here and our own industries will flourish. Public will fully support govt. CPM -libtards-congis as usual will be forced to choose, and they'll be exposed further.

4. China's BayIZZati
In front of whole world it will be akin to Bharat dousing cheen with freezing water, and cheeni biz going bankrupt.

5. We will have avoided WTO sanctions too, as there is bound to be a limited war due to this.

6. Feverish pitch of nationalism will stop next lot of youth from going jnu-aaptard-lefti -maoist gangs. NaMo will get 350+ seats.

7. Won't hurt to throw 10 billion to Trump for some biz so he can back us up against cheeni more vigorously.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby pankajs » 07 Aug 2017 22:54

^
It was not you post but let me just leave a few questions for the forum on the embassy closing business. Lets start with Bakistan.

1. Why hasn't the Modi/BJP GOI, not a Bak pasand GOI, declared Bakistan a terrorist state till date? It been 3 years in power.
2. Why haven't we kicked out the bakis and closed their counsolate/embassy in Delhi?
3. Why hasn't GOI withdrawn MFN status granted to bakis long back?

Now let see with China ..
1. We are continuing RECP {hope I have that correct} negotiations. I have said this before and there was an article today that it basically is an indirect FTA with China. Why haven't we walked out yet?
2. After closing the Chinese embassy in Delhi, do we also withdraw from AIB {or whatever}, SCO? If not why? Why were we so eager to join all these China led groupings in the first place?
3. Should we also withdraw from WTO?

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby DrRatnadip » 07 Aug 2017 22:59

http://m.timesofindia.com/world/china/d ... 958647.cms

Doklam: China's defence ministry does not support 'short war' theory


BEIJING: China's defence ministry has distanced itself from discussion in the state backed media about a "small-scale military operation" to remove Indian troops from the disputed Doklam area on the Sikkim border.
"This kind of reports represents the view of the media and think-tanks. For official information please refer to the statements of foreign ministry and defence ministry spokespersons," China's Defence Ministry spokesman Sr. Col. Ren Guoqiang told an Indian media delegation here on Monday.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Iyersan » 07 Aug 2017 23:01

DrRatnadip wrote:http://m.timesofindia.com/world/china/doklam-chinas-defence-ministry-does-not-support-short-war-theory/articleshow/59958647.cms

Doklam: China's defence ministry does not support 'short war' theory


BEIJING: China's defence ministry has distanced itself from discussion in the state backed media about a "small-scale military operation" to remove Indian troops from the disputed Doklam area on the Sikkim border.
"This kind of reports represents the view of the media and think-tanks. For official information please refer to the statements of foreign ministry and defence ministry spokespersons," China's Defence Ministry spokesman Sr. Col. Ren Guoqiang told an Indian media delegation here on Monday.

Would take this TOIlet piece with a pinch of salt. Chinese def min + foreign min has made the matter serious

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby rsingh » 07 Aug 2017 23:11

2. Rewarding neighbours :

Imagine if 30 billion of this 80 billion is spread out to Japan, Russia, Vietnam-Cambodia-Thai-Lanka and other SE neighbours.

That 80 billion of import is sold at higher prices to retailers , thus bringing added value to it. It goes by chain and at every step some amount is added. Indirectly retailers pay for transport, storage and rent in market. All in All one $ imported adds another $ to GDP (very conservative estimates). A poor house hold buy durables at cheaper price that elevates their living standard. A family in remote village can afford plastic sheets,blankets for winter , cheap light bulbs etc adds up to GDP and to well being of family. I have seen in villages where drinking water is supplied one a week in big plastic cans and everybody is happy. Water is clean, ladies do not have to go far to fetch.
What I am saying is giving 30 billion to xyz countries will not help us. And if we think carefully we will loose more then 200 billion in GDP if we stop trade with China. It is good if we produce those goods ourselves or if we buy it from some other countries. Japan, Russia can give us the goods which make market sense for Indian villagers, I do not think so. Vietnam and Cambodia are different.
I am not an economist but it is just common sense. Do not burn your house to kill some rats.
Last edited by rsingh on 07 Aug 2017 23:16, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby g.sarkar » 07 Aug 2017 23:13

http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/dokl ... 20658.html
Beyond Doklam standoff, a look at 5 areas where India is well ahead of China
The ongoing Doklam standoff has brought sharp focus on India and China. The two countries are being intensely compared in respects of not only military, economy and technological advancements.
In early 1980s, India and China were roughly of same size in their economies and technological advancements. But, thereafter China made rapid progress while India looked lagging behind.
The gap was not too wide at the eve of liberalization in India. In terms of GDP, Indian economy was about 4 per cent of the US economy in 1990 while Chinese was 9 per cent. But, in 2014, while India's economy stood at 11 per cent of the US GDP, China was 60 per cent of the world's biggest economy.
Yet, there are many sectors where India is way ahead of China.
GDP GROWTH RATE AND WEALTH DISTRIBUTION
Since 2011 China is slowing down. It is battling hard to keep its economy grow at the previous double-digit or high single digit GDP rate but, the economy is just showing signs of fatigue.
In 2014, India finally caught up with China's GDP growth rate. Chinese economy grew at 7.3 per cent that year compared to India's GDP growth rate of 7.2 per cent. During the next two years, China's GDP growth rate declines first to 6.9 per cent in 2015 and 6.7 per cent in 2016. On the other hand, India's GDP grew at 7.6 per cent each of two years.
Chinese economy has taken a mammoth proportion on the back of stupendous growth of its manufacturing sector. Its high GDP growth rates had been driven by bulging manufacturing sector of China. On the other hand, India's economic growth model has been more balanced and hence growth has been steadier.
The latest data for industrial growth shows the two sides of the story. In 2016, China's industrial growth rate was 6 per cent, while India registered industrial growth rate of 7.4 per cent. The reforms, especially, the GST is likely to push the industrial growth rate further high in India.
......

Gautam

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby DrRatnadip » 07 Aug 2017 23:20

Iyersan wrote:Would take this TOIlet piece with a pinch of salt. Chinese def min + foreign min has made the matter serious

Posted just for sake of records.. I dont belive in any of lizard's word..

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby pankajs » 07 Aug 2017 23:22

Cutting down trade with China can be an option but it has to be done gradually. Let me give you an example where abrupt ban on import from China will lead to loss of life in India. This is fully from memory so while the gist is right the details may be a little off.

We import some of the most critical basic antibiotic API (active ingredient) from China either because production within India is limited or not there at all. We cut the that trade without creating a backup capacity in India and we will be staring at quite a few unnecessary loss of life.

This has been a concern of GOI because it makes us vulnerable to loss of supply. These antibiotics are the basic but critical medication for the poor especially. Last I heard GOI was still thinking on how to onshore the production.

Decisions have implications and hasty decisions can often be harmful. One just doesn't go by dollar amount but has to drill down to get an idea of of the composition. There after one has to formulate plans to tackle imports at item level.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby pankajs » 07 Aug 2017 23:38

Ok .. this is from 2015. The extent of problem is wider than I had remembered and extends beyond antibiotics.

http://www.livemint.com/Industry/L8C3Zb ... ustry.html
Chinese scare looms over India’s bulk drug industry
“We should develop a conducive environment for the bulk drug industry to develop in India. We are over-dependent on China for imports of bulk drugs as more than 75% of bulk drug imports come from China,” pharmaceuticals secretary V.K. Subburaj said in an interview.
....
The panel has called for the revival of public sector units to start manufacturing select essential critical drugs, like penicillin and paracetamol. It also suggested tax-free status and cluster development for revival of the industry.
....
The survey took a list of medicines, including antibiotics (semi–synthetic penicillins, semi–synthetic cephalosporins, macrolides, fluoroquinolones), analgesics (paracetamol, ibuprofen), cardiovascular drugs (Sartans), anti–diabetic drugs (Metformin) and other widely used mass therapies ( Vitamin C, Ranitidine) under consideration, for most of which India was heavily dependent on China.

For antibiotics such as Ofloxacin and Levofloxacin (used to treat infections, India is heavily reliant on imports for both the API as well as the key intermediates. Moreover, most of the imports, over 90% in most cases, are concentrated in China,” the study added.
....
According to lobby group Bulk Drug Manufacturers Association general secretary R.K. Agrawal, the major threat for India from China is in the form of raw materials. “If China decides to stop supply of starting materials and raw materials, we are in trouble. The government should come up with more pharma parks to boost investment in this sector,” Agrawal added.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby RCase » 07 Aug 2017 23:39

Iron Blothel has started the downhill - skilling.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/doklam-chinas-defence-ministry-does-not-support-short-war-theory/articleshow/59958647.cms
BEIJING: China's defence ministry has distanced itself from discussion in the state backed media about a "small-scale military operation" to remove Indian troops from the disputed Doklam area+ on the Sikkim border.
"This kind of reports represents the view of the media and think-tanks. For official information please refer to the statements of foreign ministry and defence ministry spokespersons," China's Defence Ministry spokesman Sr. Col. Ren Guoqiang told an Indian media delegation here on Monday.
...
The ministry did not send out any fresh threatening signals during a two-hour long interaction with an Indian media delegation. Ren questioned India's refusal to understand China's standpoint on the dispute but did not talk about any military consequences of the standoff which has already crossed 50 days.
...
Ren rejected a suggestion from a journalist that China has acquired an image of an expansionist nation owing to its China Pakistan Economic Corridor, which is violating Indian claims over Pakistan Occupied Kashmir, Ren said. "This is not in our genes." :rotfl:

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby UlanBatori » 07 Aug 2017 23:58

Misspelling.
"This is not in our genes Jeans." There. :mrgreen:

Seems a different breed of journalist that visited, compared to Stinker Dupatta at the infamous Dog Biscuits With Musharraf incident.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby ramana » 08 Aug 2017 00:00

Iyersan wrote:
ramana wrote:
I guess I asked the wrong person.

What do you think they were doing?
What are their aims?

My humble 2 cents:
China completely believes in the fact that its sole competitor is the US
To that end they must first establish their dominance in the Asian region first..
Coupled with that is the fact that they have a huge hunger for natural resources... there is no free lunch strategy is applied to countries that take the requisite help ... finance , military etc ( Africa, SL, Myanmar, BD)
I do believe that the world also respects power... of course people would argue power with responsibility.... but a guy with a begging bowl already doesn't care for the niceties of proper decorum ( Pakistan)
To conquer Asia they have to subdue the closest opponent .... India
How does one do it.... military, economic and law fare, psyfare... right now they are trying the least cost option.... to maximise gains with least expense of resource ( pure operations theory).... here is where they are not receiving the right returns....

but one must never forget that Asia and particularly Chinese are a high context society... loss of face is truly very demeaning..... what I don't understand is 60 days is already quite a huge loss of face.... coupled with the fact that not a single day has gone by without any provocations from the Chinese media houses + defence+ foreign ministry.... what are they waiting for? BRICS is early September... even if the standoff fizzles out by Modi and XI bilateral with simultaneous withdrawal India wins.... the weather from August to Sept is apt for a border war... or is the plan more sinister? Is the standoff calculated to divert attentions from SCS and NoKo?Do they plan to hit us elsewhere?

There are many dispersed thoughts in my mind, I might need to look at it in a mind map format... Maybe Doklam is not an isolated incident


Good show. Now concentrate on the bold.

I think you are letting the geopolitical /strategic dominate your mind.
it tactical/military perspective that dominates the Chinese and any other totalitarian state.

Did you know in 1962 the plans were made just one week ahead of Oct 20?
And were based on Indian deployments to achieve the maximum in the minimum time.

So the Sr Col talking about long war is very interesting.
So to sum up the geopolitical comes later w.r.t China.

For example dacoity is crime of opportunity.
Brigands band together to attack a weak victim and disperse.
Same modus operandi that China operates on.
Encroach when the guard is let down.
Hit and run.
And occupy if lightly defended.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby prasannasimha » 08 Aug 2017 00:03

pankajs wrote:Cutting down trade with China can be an option but it has to be done gradually. Let me give you an example where abrupt ban on import from China will lead to loss of life in India. This is fully from memory so while the gist is right the details may be a little off.

We import some of the most critical basic antibiotic API (active ingredient) from China either because production within India is limited or not there at all. We cut the that trade without creating a backup capacity in India and we will be staring at quite a few unnecessary loss of life.

This has been a concern of GOI because it makes us vulnerable to loss of supply. These antibiotics are the basic but critical medication for the poor especially. Last I heard GOI was still thinking on how to onshore the production.

Decisions have implications and hasty decisions can often be harmful. One just doesn't go by dollar amount but has to drill down to get an idea of of the composition. There after one has to formulate plans to tackle imports at item level.

Actually India produces most of the pharmaceutical base drugs for the world For eg that of Pfizer etc.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby pankajs » 08 Aug 2017 00:08

^^
Bhai please read the report quoted in my last post. It is not someones imagination. It is from a proper business paper and quotes quite reliable sources [GOI, Industry/Trade bodies, GOI commissioned research].

Here is another one from Pharmexcil [ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pharmaceu ... on_Council ] Pharmaceutical Export Promotion Council of India (Pharmexcil) is the authorized agency of the government of India for promotion of pharmaceutical exports from India. It was set up under the provisions of Foreign Trade Policy by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry in May 2004

http://www.pharmexcil.com/circulars/req ... ec94b.html [Date: 10.02.2017]
Members are kindly aware, India is heavily dependent on China for our requirements of API and Key starting materials (KSMs), intermediates. It is also a fact that our industry is facing problems due to dependence on China for supplies of APIs and KSMs.

Pharmexcil represented the issue to Department of Commerce and submitted views of the industry. A preliminary meeting was organized with Director, IICT, Chairman of BDMA and Pharmexcil Chaired by Shri Sudhanshu Pandey, Joint Secretary, Department of Commerce recently and it was decided to identify major APIs, Intermediates, KSMs being imported from China for developing a suitable strategy.

We therefore request our members to provide requisite information of all the Key Starting Materials (KSMs), Intermediates and Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients (APIs) being imported during the last two years from China and other countries, in the table given below by email to dgdesk@pharmexcil.com :


Added later: If as an example we import only 20% of the bulk drug but that 20% includes the 5 top selling life saving drugs sold in India then the cost of that stoppage, in terms of human life, would be enormous.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Manish_Sharma » 08 Aug 2017 00:35

pankajs wrote:^
It was not you post but let me just leave a few questions for the forum on the embassy closing business. Lets start with Bakistan.

1. Why hasn't the Modi/BJP GOI, ........
2. Why .....
3. Why hasn't GOI .....



Anybody giving any idea on how to confront China has to answer for actions or non-actions of govt? Strange rule you are enforcing here.

3. Should we also withdraw from WTO?


Again, strange question. We are in WTO before China pranab and congis helped cheeni enter in WTO, why we withdraw?

Why are you so angry personally at anybody suggesting breaking diplomatic relations with cheen. You are coming across as if you will personally be injured by this.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Suraj » 08 Aug 2017 00:37

IMHO a boycott of Chinese goods is a bad idea. It's unnecessarily disruptive and paints us negatively. It's quite a bit difficult to accomplish through any means. A far more effective and easily implemented approach is an import duty applied on any or all products of our choosing. Lots of countries do this, against China and others. They can work their mouths into a froth, but will also provide the money to arm ourselves against them. Use Sun Tzutiapa against them - by using duties on the negative balance of trade to fund the cost of arming outselves against them. Then draw out the process of the dispute at WTO as long as needed to collect enough $$s. Who cares if the WTO dispute is won or lost - just draw it out long enough to collect enough. Each time they raise temperatures, rinse and repeat. The average WTO process takes 1-3 years.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby pankajs » 08 Aug 2017 00:52

Manish_Sharma wrote:
pankajs wrote:^
It was not you post but let me just leave a few questions for the forum on the embassy closing business. Lets start with Bakistan.

1. Why hasn't the Modi/BJP GOI, ........
2. Why .....
3. Why hasn't GOI .....



Anybody giving any idea on how to confront China has to answer for actions or non-actions of govt? Strange rule you are enforcing here.

3. Should we also withdraw from WTO?


Again, strange question. We are in WTO before China pranab and congis helped cheeni enter in WTO, why we withdraw?

Why are you so angry personally at anybody suggesting breaking diplomatic relations with cheen. You are coming across as if you will personally be injured by this.
Please point out any statement made in the current flow/context that seems to be made in anger.

The questions were just to show how much of a non-idea the "Money Shock" idea was. GOI cannot even break diplomatic relation with a terror sponsoring country and it is going to do that with China? Hard to believe.

If we do not withdraw from the WTO how are we going to administer the "Money Shock"? We have certain obligations under WTO and granting MFN to China is one of them.

BTW, just because there is a question mark at the end does not mean that it is spoken in anger but in surprise. Just in case it was not clear.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby vasu raya » 08 Aug 2017 01:03

ok critic saab, the reason one wants to draw parallels between territory and trade is any action on the latter helps in lesser militarization of Tibet. At the moment the scrummage line is the LAC and $80B/year, and this line in both domains is unfavorable for us. In case Doklam ends in a war and we manage a new LAC or the scrummage line closer to Brahmaputra for example, and in trade it would be gradual so say $50B/year post war, are we done?

the question is when are we done? our position has been liberation of Tibet and reinstating it as a buffer zone. which means there will be more rounds of "Doklam" and drawing of new scrummage lines on territory. The Pakis are at it on the LoC since 1947, there is no trade leverage with them, maybe water, unlike China where we can try to interlink trade with conflict.

so, the suggestion is to reduce the trade so it reflects Tibet's status, they are already at the maximal position on the territory with the current LAC, we counteract that with our own maximalist position in the trade domain. what should be the starting position for this?

a) zero trade for current LAC
b) zero trade at the Brahmaputra watershed and anything from that position to the current LAC has to be punitive for them like closing the Chinese embassy or waging war

we cannot reduce trade to zero overnight same issue with damming of Indus waters, however things are shifting

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby DrRatnadip » 08 Aug 2017 01:03

http://m.economictimes.com/news/politic ... 951495.cms

Amid border row, China reminds India how fragile its economy is

Its aggressive stance not working in the ongoing border standoff, China has now reminded India of its “fragile economy”.

China's state-run Global Times has said in an editorial that the recent Goods and Services Tax ( GST) and last year’s demonetisation have slowed down growth in India.

"It comes as no surprise that Indian business activity contracted sharply after the implementation of a new national tax in July. Questions are being raised about whether the country's reform program is too aggressive and how long the economic sluggishness will last," it says. It says businesses are confused about the new taxation system.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby UlanBatori » 08 Aug 2017 01:15

Which is why I have not asked for any government bans. Just citizen boycott. Mobile Phones and toys and Diwali crackers and noodles and triket "jewelry". All ****. Every one an individual decision based on individual preference.

In the above items, displacing Chinese items is not going to hurt domestic consumers, while it will certainly boost domestic suppliers.

An individual boycott is an individual middle finger salute to the commie Mafia. Yeah, I sure DO hope it paints us as bad-ass types. Rather than meek goats who keep giving milk to be allowed to eat the grass that the butcher cuts from the same grassland.
Last edited by UlanBatori on 08 Aug 2017 01:20, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SBajwa » 08 Aug 2017 01:16


Sicanta
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Sicanta » 08 Aug 2017 01:20



It's motorola mobility one is concerned about

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Motorola_Mobility

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby UlanBatori » 08 Aug 2017 01:20

I don't believe that they can build that cheap in USA. But never mind. Motorola is a good ol' American company (still). Oh! &^%$#@*(! They too! :((

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby UlanBatori » 08 Aug 2017 01:25

Bottom line: In 1962 the Chinese had hardly any trade with India, let alone trade surplus. If anything, exports went the other way.

Today the shoe is on the other foot, and India would be stupid not to use it liberally. No country that wants to sell in the Indian market should biss on India and Indians.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby pankajs » 08 Aug 2017 01:29

UlanBatori wrote:Which is why I have not asked for any government bans. Just citizen boycott. Mobile Phones and toys and Diwali crackers and noodles and triket "jewelry". All ****. Every one an individual decision based on individual preference.

In the above items, displacing Chinese items is not going to hurt domestic consumers, while it will certainly boost domestic suppliers.

An individual boycott is an individual middle finger salute to the commie Mafia. Yeah, I sure DO hope it paints us as bad-ass types. Rather than meek goats who keep giving milk to be allowed to eat the grass that the butcher cuts from the same grassland.

It is very doable at an individual level. Moreover GOI too can start with imposing anti-dumping duties, fixing minimum import price and other non-tariff measures like quality control, BIS standards, etc. Just like Suraj, myself and many others have suggested.

I will go one step further and state that till the GOI is not involved *directly* even a social boycott at mass level called by NGOs is ok. GOI cannot be seen as breaching its WTO commitments. The only point I have been making from the start is that bringing the trade down to zero is not an option for various reasons some of which I have shared here and some Suraj has made in his last post.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby UlanBatori » 08 Aug 2017 01:44

The only point I have been making from the start is that bringing the trade down to zero is not an option


No problem there. In fact it can be a race to the bottom: if they start bissing on Indian exports then other things will get hit. Trouble is that in PeeAllSee the citjens do what the Mafia orders them to do. Shopkeepers who sell Indian goods may find themselves receiving the Lucky Family Vacation Getaway tickets to the Gobi. I feel for those who has set up bijnej to export to Cheen, because all these days the "war" was to try and fight back against the trade deficit. This is where GOI should try and help redirect their exports to other places, maybe even subsidize shipping (from unofficial sources) to tide them over. Or just given them a war relief package.


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