Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

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pankajs
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby pankajs » 08 Aug 2017 02:03

The ideal way to go about reducing trade deficit is to identify items that

a) constitute a large value
b) expertise exists in India to produce

Start with the topmost import in value terms. Give local industry incentives to build up capacity at competitive prices. Impose anti-dumping duties.
E.g Steel, Tyres, plastic products, Pharma, Chemicals

BTW, check this out. Indian imports from China. Decide what can be knocked off easily.
http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/visualize ... show/2015/

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby RajeshG » 08 Aug 2017 02:09

Shanmukh wrote:@chola,
You have been arguing for war. What are the war goals (physical ones, not psychological)? What is the actual change on the ground you want before ceasefire in - say - two weeks? What pieces of land do you want to take from them & what are you willing to lose, if any?


not chola and no general either. Just mango-man. I doubt there will be war. I think this is just namo doing ungli to xi as payback.

But if at all there is a war as political objective i would love if we can punch thru POK/COK territory in a way that we can create a land link to afghanistan and cutoff CPEC. this has to be in an area which we can ideally hold forever (maybe 50kms wide) and this should be achievable in 2-4 weeks ?

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby g.sarkar » 08 Aug 2017 02:14

Pankajji,
The only reason we import from China is because the products are cheap. If we stop the imports suddenly, we will have to import from else where at a higher price. You are right when you say we must identify areas and then encourage manufacture. This is a long process, and Chinese industries went through the same process a few decades ago. Boycott of Chinese can however be done on an individual basis aka Swadeshi and Satyagraha. This will reduce the demand of Chinese goods and deliver jingo satisfaction.
Gautam

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Gagan » 08 Aug 2017 02:34

Hain ji!
Is there such a thing as "export to china" kinda viable business anywhere at all?
Those guys xerox and make cheap, poor quality copies of everything!

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Suraj » 08 Aug 2017 02:34

Here's why I think individual boycotts are pointless:
a) New Delhi must be seen to wield power, by diktat. The deliberate way is to apply tariffs - even WTO non compliant ones - and channel all the monies into defence procurement, raising additional mountain warfare brigades, the works. Beijing can take us to WTO, whereupon we'll but our most effective bureaucrats to work at doing what they're legendary at, dragging their feet.

b) An approach where we are sacrificing something to compel them to change, inherently makes it possible to manipulate us. It puts the onus on us expending energy on maintaining the cohesion of our own response, across a billion people. In other words, it's high maintenance. It's the tariff equivalent of Mao compelling the masses to make iron in backyard furnaces during the Great Leap Backward, err, Forward. If I were some Beijing mandarin I'd toy with it by ordering 'cut prices of the products 25% and see if they still maintain their boycott'. They have so much overcapacity that they need to almost give away things.

The easier and more effective way is to make them pay armament duties for every dollar of their trade surplus with us. It's easier for them to get rid of their surplus goods and accumulate capital, than to be denied easy sale of goods *and* have to pay us to arm ourselves against them.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Gagan » 08 Aug 2017 02:42

This Gobar Times news outlet is a laughter challenge winner!
One can imagine that ordinary chinese laugh their arses off reading the state propadandoo, but can't really really laugh out loud or else...
We OTOH should have no such compulsions.
Gobar times is as funny as the Mad magazine :rotfl:

Here on BRF, it is funny as hell to see dumb people post chinese propagandoo, because they are a) not well informed about military capabilities on the border, b) have very poor sense of the diplomatic, military and economic clout of india vis a vis china, or c) refuse to see reality!

China is not winning this one militarily, all out war or border skirmish not withstanding.
They will always be at a disadvantage in Chumbi Valley. If there is war, Chumbi Valley will be the first independent Tibet Land liberated from the Chinese. Apart from the IA, the boys from chakarata are probably itching to have a go at the manicured chinese soldiers

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby UlanBatori » 08 Aug 2017 02:48

^ Surajji, all that is too complicated for my poor yak-brain. IMO what we will show is exactly the reverse: that the determination to punish China for bad behavior comes directly FROM THE PEOPLE. NaMo etc have no choice. It is not the govt's war, it is the Indian people's righteous anger.

And besides, like I said, 10% boycott is $6B per year. Plus $200B of publicity around the world that the Indian People, largest democracy in the Dunia, are showing the ungli to communist mafia.

I wouldn't be surprised to see buttons saying: "Me hum Arunachali" appearing in Europe. At least "I stand with Tibet". Or "I stand with India. At Dokam La". "Red China Out of Bhutan!" "Free Tibet!"

I wouldn't call that pointless.
Last edited by UlanBatori on 08 Aug 2017 02:49, edited 1 time in total.

Gagan
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Gagan » 08 Aug 2017 02:49

"The boys from Chakrata" were so viscious with the chinese soldiers through the 60s & the 70s, that they had to be restricted from going near the McMohan line.
Their visciousness was totally understandable, seeing their homeland in illegal occupation by the Chinese

I know several tibeteans living all over the world will be baying for han blood.
The han blood these days is not red enough, the red of chinese communism has diluted with market capitalism. Also diluted is the han's ability to wage a real war.
Chinese soldiers are manicured sissy brats, who know how to troll online or on the border, but can't fight

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Viv S » 08 Aug 2017 03:19

RajeshG wrote:But if at all there is a war as political objective i would love if we can punch thru POK/COK territory in a way that we can create a land link to afghanistan and cutoff CPEC. this has to be in an area which we can ideally hold forever (maybe 50kms wide) and this should be achievable in 2-4 weeks ?

Its not doable. Just getting from Kargil to the N35 highway means advancing 200 km up the Astore valley road over hellish terrain, endless number of choke-points, half a dozen towns and two infantry brigades. Cutting off the northern route to the Karakorum pass would require going a further 50 km and the taking the city of Gilgit (pop: 250,000).

Just for reference, the Kargil incursion, while spanning a broad frontage, was limited to a depth of just 10-15 km and even then possible only through surprise & deception.

A ground offensive in PoK is tactically and logistically untenable. Forget a military assault, if you wanted to trek that distance on foot it would take you two weeks minimum.

A massive heliborne operation might be an option but retaining the element of surprise would be near impossible. And unless total surprise is achieved, the assault force would need to run a brutal air defence gauntlet, at the end of which the landing troops would still have only minimal logistical support (whatever the helos can ferry) and non-existent artillery support. Against a division plus formation (FCNA HQ - Gilgit).
Last edited by Viv S on 08 Aug 2017 03:29, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Suraj » 08 Aug 2017 03:25

UlanBatori wrote:^ Surajji, all that is too complicated for my poor yak-brain. IMO what we will show is exactly the reverse: that the determination to punish China for bad behavior comes directly FROM THE PEOPLE. NaMo etc have no choice. It is not the govt's war, it is the Indian people's righteous anger.

Yakhearder saar, getting the people to do anything on that scale takes time and effort to coordinate. It's a very useful pressure mechanism upon GoI, true. But step back and look at it: Doklam isn't unique because of Chinese actions. It's not different because of Indian mango man actions. It's different because of *Indian government actions*. It's GoI alone that's caused this episode to take its current contours. Beijing isn't doing anything differently, neither are Indian mango people. Just this GoI.

Same mango people have built up an unhealthy appetite for cheap Chini maal, despite the fact that PRC have been grabbing out territory for decades now. Where are you going to summon this peoples' anger from, that gets them to give up their cheap goods ? IMHO, the public policy difficulty of this 'peoples anger' approach is being vastly underestimated. Decades of Chinese 'what's mine is mine, what's yours is negotiable' behavior hasn't stopped people from consuming ever increasing amounts of Chinese maal. Very little 1962 era anger either. Most of the forum junta were born in 1987 Sumdorong Chu era...

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby shyamal » 08 Aug 2017 03:47

Suraj, once public opinion is mobilized things get a life of its own. Last diwali there was a huge boycott of Chinese lights diyas and such trinkets. It was a spontaneous thing by the people and was serious enough to reduce sales of Chinese imports by 15 to 20% in just 1 month in most of the metros.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby UlanBatori » 08 Aug 2017 03:55

If there is a single Chinese bullet fired, its game over for Chinese products, once the campaign is underway on social media (as it is gathering steam there already, past 3 weeks). That's where the mango anger comes in - amplified 1000-fold by the same mobile phones and Smartphones that the Chinese have made affordable for 100s of millions in India incl. me. Anyone who refuses to go along will face social ostracization (many mumbaiwallahs already quoted with their versions of Let Da Peasant Eat Cake, and they will be wishing they could eat their words).

Shiv Sena calling for boycott already. Baba Ramdev calling for boycott. Now if Shahrukh Khan and Rajnikant (er... last heard he's considering running for political office) wake up.... the Dlagon has a problem on its tail. BTW, who are the latest houri heartthrobs? Haven't been following since Aishwarya Rai and Madhuri Dixit and Mandira Bedi retired. Manju Warrier and Shobhana in Malloostan, I guess. If they put out the fatwa against Chinese clothes and trinkets, that's huge. In this case I think Indian Muslims, Xtians, Hindus, Buddhists, Jains, Sikhs are all on the same page.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Suraj » 08 Aug 2017 04:15

shyamal wrote:Suraj, once public opinion is mobilized things get a life of its own. Last diwali there was a huge boycott of Chinese lights diyas and such trinkets. It was a spontaneous thing by the people and was serious enough to reduce sales of Chinese imports by 15 to 20% in just 1 month in most of the metros.

None of this strikes me as in any way meaningful to conducting foreign policy. Did it get back any land ? Cause any change in behavior from Chinese ? As far as I can tell, all they did was a few months later they precipitated the current situation. IOW, how was it effective was the entire exercise, besides temporary euphoria ?

This also includes building trust and cohesion within our own society. When something like this happens, a bunch of no good types attempt to pass off Chinese goods as sourced from elsewhere. People don't trust whether they're truly not buying Chinese goods. It sows doubt among the populace, because obviously 100% of people can't be expected to do the same thing. They can do it once, or twice, but after a while the cynicism builds.

I'm also not in favor of any one time 'lets all band together and show ppl power!' approaches where foreign policy is concerned. It's nice and impressive when it happens, but we can't run foreign policy that way. GoI needs to establish and utilize strong levers it can use at will, not expect people to collectively get down to doing that. Application of duties is immediate, applied on seller, and serves as a cost applied upon the Chinese for their actions that GoI can repeatedly play, stall at WTO, repeat.

It doesn't need to wait for public opinion to build about a crisis level issue. It's repeatedly applied to suit any situation we initiate, as opposed to reacting to them. The public might react to major issues once in a while, but they cannot be depended upon to do this all the time. GoI has to do it all the time for their foreign policy responsibility, so *they* need to develop and utilize these levers of persuasion.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Shanmukh » 08 Aug 2017 04:27

Viv S wrote:A massive heliborne operation might be an option but retaining the element of surprise would be near impossible. And unless total surprise is achieved, the assault force would need to run a brutal air defence gauntlet, at the end of which the landing troops would still have only minimal logistical support (whatever the helos can ferry) and non-existent artillery support. Against a division plus formation (FCNA HQ - Gilgit).


Viv - that is PoJK, not CoK, or Uttar Dharmsala. I was thinking more along the lines of something important in Uttar Dharmasala. Like Chumbi, or Ngari or even Gartok, or something like that, which we can use as the HQ of a Free Uttar Dharmasala govt. Is that doable for us? Or can we take back Shaksgam valley?

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby shyamal » 08 Aug 2017 04:32

India is a democracy. It means the actions of govt of India reflects the will of its citizens. Spontaneous boycott is a very strong message- not just to our govt but that of china.
Actions reinforce thought patterns. even a temporary boycott makes Indians consider Chinese as enemies. That in itself is as valuable as 3 aircraft carriers :)
For me - the target is not to change Chinese behavior but to change Indian response. Just as 90 percent sane Indians shudder from every thing pakistani, we need to make our compatriots see china in the same light.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Suraj » 08 Aug 2017 04:36

We may be a democracy, but we also have an active functioning government, whom we pay taxes to, to do work while representing our will. And one of those is foreign policy. Any 'spontaneous action' isn't just a message to PRC. It's a message to GoI to do their work. GoI's doing their work now, which is why this whole episode is so satisfying. They should keep doing work, by building more levers of foreign policy action they can employ at will. It's their job.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby shyamal » 08 Aug 2017 04:44

Its also our job to do whatever we can. No one is forcing anyone to boycott.
What can the govt do? Levy duties making Chinese goods 20% more expensive? I am talking of cultivating a state of mind among a large section so that they do not buy even if it is 50# cheaper.
The effects of the swadeshi movement lasted well beyond the brit occupation. Plenty of people played foul then too but thats not what the whole story was about.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Suraj » 08 Aug 2017 04:58

shyamal wrote:Its also our job to do whatever we can. No one is forcing anyone to boycott.

And that is exactly why it is unworkable. Time and effort will be spent trying to get public to react , and they won't react except in moments of crisis where in any case they would have reacted patriotically, regardless of what GoI did or didn't do.

Foreign policy requires potent immediate action by a government. Not waiting for domestic public opinion to build. Tariffs have the intended side effect of discouraging consumption of goods from China as well, while simultaneously putting the power to act in GoI's hands as opposed to the hands of the general public.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby shyamal » 08 Aug 2017 05:04

Its not unworkable at all. GoI action and public action complement each other. One is not a substitute for the other. Without public anger govt will not have the means to levy duties on cheap products and make them unaccessable to the public. Even a 10% drop in sales is a good barometer of public mood.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Suraj » 08 Aug 2017 05:06

Fine. How many times has the Indian public reacted in anger as you imply ? And how many times have the Chinese actions hurt us in the foreign policy domain ? Did they rise up in anger in response to Masood Azhar ? The attempt to stymie our UNSC ambitions ? The Tsangpo construction ? The NSG blocking ? I haven't even gotten to border matters. The ratio is something like 1:25 .

The bottomline remains that GoI has to assiduously build tools of persuasion when it comes to foreign policy. The public will react once in a while, but GoI has to react every single time.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby shyamal » 08 Aug 2017 05:09

We are not going anywhere in a hurry. Neither is china. In addition to the immediate action activities we need to be ready for a sustained period of on-off hostilities with china. Public mood and resolve is just as important as official foreign policy moves.
If mango public is not ready for long term actions then no govt can sustain its campaign.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby shyamal » 08 Aug 2017 05:19

Suraj wrote:Fine. How many times has the Indian public reacted in anger as you imply ? And how many times have the Chinese actions hurt us in the foreign policy domain ? Did they rise up in anger in response to Masood Azhar ? The attempt to stymie our UNSC ambitions ? The Tsangpo construction ? The NSG blocking ? I haven't even gotten to border matters. The ratio is something like 1:25 .

The bottomline remains that GoI has to assiduously build tools of persuasion when it comes to foreign policy. The public will react once in a while, but GoI has to react every single time.

That is where the actions influence thoughts part comes :)
Indians see pk as existential enemy. They will be wary of paki moves even if pk delivers us pok for free. Every time pk tries hanky panky it cause outrage and hatred.
Indians see china as a competitor with whom we sometimes have some "disputes". Not really a threat. Yes - not everyone is a brfite to know details of chino perdify. As there is no bloodshed so there is no sense if enemity.
That part is changing over the last one year. Slowly but steadily. A boycott - forget about its effect on china - reinforces Chinese villainous conduct in the minds of mango public. They do not need to boycott themselves all the time. Even a isolated incident plants a seed.
That seed needs to be planted and nurtured if india is to oppose and fight china in the long haul.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Suraj » 08 Aug 2017 05:45

Sorry we have to agree to disagree . I don't even agree that 'Indians see Pak as an existential enemy'. They haven't been one for about 2 generations now, since 1971 .

Public attitudes have been completely out of sync with Indian foreign policy objectives with respect to PRC for a long time . Heck, they've been out of sync with TSP objectives, or else something like the Mumbai attacks would never have resulted in INC returning to power in 2009.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby KLNMurthy » 08 Aug 2017 06:11

Suraj wrote:Here's why I think individual boycotts are pointless:
a) New Delhi must be seen to wield power, by diktat. The deliberate way is to apply tariffs - even WTO non compliant ones - and channel all the monies into defence procurement, raising additional mountain warfare brigades, the works. Beijing can take us to WTO, whereupon we'll but our most effective bureaucrats to work at doing what they're legendary at, dragging their feet.

b) An approach where we are sacrificing something to compel them to change, inherently makes it possible to manipulate us. It puts the onus on us expending energy on maintaining the cohesion of our own response, across a billion people. In other words, it's high maintenance. It's the tariff equivalent of Mao compelling the masses to make iron in backyard furnaces during the Great Leap Backward, err, Forward. If I were some Beijing mandarin I'd toy with it by ordering 'cut prices of the products 25% and see if they still maintain their boycott'. They have so much overcapacity that they need to almost give away things.

The easier and more effective way is to make them pay armament duties for every dollar of their trade surplus with us. It's easier for them to get rid of their surplus goods and accumulate capital, than to be denied easy sale of goods *and* have to pay us to arm ourselves against them.

Government restrictions and popular boycott are not mutually exclusive things.

A privately orchestrated popular boycott campaign can only complement and bolster government action. A show of GOI "force" is something, but in a democracy in the social media era it has to necessarily harmonize with public will. Something called national spirit and wrath of the masses is a huge force multiplier.

At the very least, if it gets us away from the shameful state of buying our puja-murthys and fatakas from China, that will be a plus. We have worshipped our gods for thousands of years using purely local products. We have done import substitution in rocketry and satellites when we were under sanctions. We had our own crappy plastic buckets even before we started importing Chinese crap. We can do just fine in pharma and puja without Chinese inputs.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby shyamal » 08 Aug 2017 06:23

Suraj - just curious- do you stay in india?
I am intrigued when you say indians donot consider pk as existential enemy. If they did not do so then past GoIs would have been a lot more conciliatory wrt pk.
Its sheer (fear of)public opinion/wrath that prevented some dovey moves.

Aam public has not seen china for the theeat it is. Main reason - no bloodshed at the border or direct terrorism connection. Aim is to change that attitude. Which is already changing btw. Any moves from GoI is welcome and complementary to this.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby shiv » 08 Aug 2017 06:40

India has a robust bulk drug manufacturing capability, but a huge population and price competition may be driving imports from China. China has a bad reputation in terms of drug quality - and the discussion here has suddenly opened my eyes. A concerned colleague recently spoke to me about a patient who had been taking a particular drug for a while but tests appeared like she had received no drug. The first thought that came to mind was spurious medicine.

I am gong to start questioning drug company reps if they source their drugs from China - not that it will help, but at least it will put people on their guard and create awareness. It is entirely possible that nations like Germany and Switzerland source from China and repackage. Decades ago my late father in law noticed that "German made" pumps in Nigeria were Kirloskar pumps with a German stamp. It is really ironic that the type of ethics that are completely out of bounds in the medical profession are "Good, sensible trade practices" that are an indicator of good business sense and the laudable aim of protecting shareholder interest.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby kancha » 08 Aug 2017 06:57

pankajs wrote:Why do I recall some story about Banditji gifting China two tongues of territory on the map? Subsequently CON ruled India did not correct the maps because it would have exposed Banditji or so was the story.


Yes, it was land equivalent to Goa.
Saurava Jha tweeted some days ago that this might see some enhanced PLA activity
Twitter Link

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SriKumar » 08 Aug 2017 07:00

shiv wrote:India has a robust bulk drug manufacturing capability, but a huge population and price competition may be driving imports from China. China has a bad reputation in terms of drug quality - and the discussion here has suddenly opened my eyes. A concerned colleague recently spoke to me about a patient who had been taking a particular drug for a while but tests appeared like she had received no drug. The first thought that came to mind was spurious medicine.

I am gong to start questioning drug company reps if they source their drugs from China - not that it will help, but at least it will put people on their guard and create awareness. It is entirely possible that nations like Germany and Switzerland source from China and repackage. Decades ago my late father in law noticed that "German made" pumps in Nigeria were Kirloskar pumps with a German stamp. It is really ironic that the type of ethics that are completely out of bounds in the medical profession are "Good, sensible trade practices" that are an indicator of good business sense and the laudable aim of protecting shareholder interest.

Good point . Note that we _recently_ saw a report from CAG (or some such office) where parts for a (Bofors?) howitzer in IA were Chinese-made even though they were supposed to be from Germany. On a related note, it is surprising to see India is importing Chinese-based antibiotics. I saw this in a link that showed India's top 10 imports from China. How is quality assured here, with the product coming from a nation that is well-known for sending poor quality, shoddy goods. Atleast if the cell phone or router is poor quality, you just get a new one a year later (instead of 2 years later) and no one gets sick or dies.

In 2015 India imported $870 million worth of antibiotics from China per this website. Direct imports...no routing from Europe.

http://www.infodriveindia.com/india-tra ... ports.aspx
Last edited by SriKumar on 08 Aug 2017 07:17, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby UlanBatori » 08 Aug 2017 07:03

GOI cannot impose a boycott, or other significantly reduce the trade deficit without incurring wrath of WTO (schemes to say let's break the law now, the police won't send us to jail for another 5 years don't impress me much).
Citizen boycott suffers no such issues. We buy what we like, we don't buy what we don't like. And right now, its the Chinese' govt's fault that we don't like them.

Concerns from Suraj re: 2008 attacks are very valid. But recently (post-2014) I see a rising willingness to speak out in nationalistic terms and not be so cowed down by commie/PC bullying. Just saying based on reaction seen to recent posts on fB, for instance. The SmartPhone/Twitter/fB/WhatsApp access to info has indeed brought a huge change. Rural people were always more patriotic and nationalistic; urban types were jaded and cynical and considered themselves to be more "World Citizens" etc. But not in the past 2 years. Only some Mumbaiwallahs seem not to have got the message. They will.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby shiv » 08 Aug 2017 07:20

SriKumar wrote:On a related note, it is surprising to see India is importing Chinese-based API or some such thing that gets used in making antibiotics. I saw this in a link that showed India's top 10 imports from China. How is quality assured here, with the product coming from a nation that is well-known for sending poor quality, shoddy goods. Atleast if the cell phone or router is poor quality, you just get a new one a year later (instead of 2 years later) and no one gets sick or dies.

The drugs scene in India is both bright and murky. There are a whole lot of irrational and useless drug combinations made by questionable companies and pushed by drugstores and doctors. I am hoping that the new law that imposes upon doctors the need to prescribe drugs by their generic names help weed out the worst. That said - the government is surely involved in drug/medicine scams. I was recently taking a share taxi ride with a wheeler-dealer who represented a company making IV fluids - like Saline and Dextrose. When the government makes an order - it's not 1000 bottles like a private hospital. It will be 500,000 bottles. Multiple truckloads.The opportunity and temptation to cut corners and skim money with such large orders must be high and my co passenger was pretty open about the profits he could make if a deal went through and how much he would pay the government guy sitting the Bangalore City corporation office - where the guy got out of the taxi

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Suraj » 08 Aug 2017 07:31

KLNMurthy: I don't disagree that public opinion matters . I think that is so self evident that it does not need mentioning . But, public opinion on foreign policy is not and has never been 'vernacular' . In moments of crisis it clearly galvanizes the government .

But the problem is that Chinese actions far, far outnumber public galvanization . The one notable example provided is firecrackers for an annual festival . A perusal of the news shows plenty of stories of people rebranding Chinese fireworks to avoid losing money on stuff they already imported, too.

The public cannot respond to every act of Chinese aggression . They cannot be expected to be . They often don't even know what's happening . And if we depend on their response , by direct corollary it means the situation has already gotten that bad, which means GoI hasn't been able to counter and deter the Chinese enough .

That just proves my point - GoI should have its own levers of punitive retaliation . By the time public responds its already quite grave and their response is invariant of the situation . For example, the public reacted with great gusto in 1962 even when Banditji and co demonstrated they couldn't even find their own mush with both hands and an illustrated guide available .

Manish_Sharma
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Manish_Sharma » 08 Aug 2017 07:41


kancha
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby kancha » 08 Aug 2017 07:43

deejay wrote:
kancha wrote:Blog: Bhutan-China Boundary Dispute: A historical perspective

Twitter Link

A short blog on historical perspective of the Bhutan - China Boundary Dispute.


Nice blog Sir.


Thanks Deejay. Penning a follow up post right now. Will upload today / tomorrow

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby niran » 08 Aug 2017 07:44

Suraj wrote:None of this strikes me as in any way meaningful to conducting foreign policy. Did it get back any land ? Cause any change in behavior from Chinese ? As far as I can tell, all they did was a few months later they precipitated the current situation. IOW, how was it effective was the entire exercise, besides temporary euphoria ?


GOI cannot call for boycott or advise boycott products it can only ban or place restrictions that too after due process. Thus it is us (Indian nationals) who are to boycott,BaBa Ramdev can call fora boycott, Shri Shri can call for, TaTa can Becuase they are not GOI. no, it won't bring back captured land or reduce your IT returns rate but it will and do alert the cheenese about consequences if shooting starts.

TIS 2017 not 1962 then onree news paper and AIR were NEWS source currently public opinion and action are formed and acted upon within hours not months

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Suraj » 08 Aug 2017 07:48

Niran boss , I never asked for GoI to ask for a boycott . In fact I didn't ask for anyone to boycott . My position is that GoI should apply punitive duties on Chinese imports, couched in whatever language lets us get away with it, or maximizes the delay in arguing it out at WTO . And direct that money to build up out Sino-Indian border, and fund Tibetan govt in exile . All this talk about boycott is other people's arguments . In my opinion boycotts take too much time and energy and don't work . Duties can be imposed, augmented or re targeted out of FinMin collaborating with EAM.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby devesh » 08 Aug 2017 07:59

KGS Nightwatch is predicting that Chinese have decided to use force if India doesn't comply with their demands. Their analysis is that Chinese rhetoric shows signs that they're not simply bluffing.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Iyersan » 08 Aug 2017 08:01

devesh wrote:KGS Nightwatch is predicting that Chinese have decided to use force if India doesn't comply with their demands. Their analysis is that Chinese rhetoric shows signs that they're not simply bluffing.

Link Sir?

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby devesh » 08 Aug 2017 08:10

Iyersan wrote:
devesh wrote:KGS Nightwatch is predicting that Chinese have decided to use force if India doesn't comply with their demands. Their analysis is that Chinese rhetoric shows signs that they're not simply bluffing.

Link Sir?


Paid service.

shiv
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby shiv » 08 Aug 2017 08:13

Another good one from Ata Hasnain
http://www.apnlive.com/opinion-and-anal ... -war-23445
WAR BUT NO WAR

Manish_Sharma
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Manish_Sharma » 08 Aug 2017 08:23

Suraj wrote:
The bottomline remains that GoI has to assiduously build tools of persuasion when it comes to foreign policy. The public will react once in a while, but GoI has to react every single time.


Thanks Suraj I like this "Mountain Strike Corps Tariff" imposed on yellow myopics even more.

As NaMo & Jaitley wielding it like swords against elevan gang seems even more delicious. With financing of more MSCs while doing it added bonus.


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