Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

amohan2001 · Post by **amohan2001** » 21 Aug 2017 07:52

Left or right, This incident tells Chinese that they will not get a walkover they got in '62.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 21 Aug 2017 07:53

NRao wrote:
I do not think that jean shivering is that simple. For Goldman will never make billion if American do not shiver.

Thanks. Interesting (American) insider information..

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 21 Aug 2017 07:54

There are three huge military objectives worth committing significant forces:
1) Cut the Akshay Hind road that connects Uttar Dharmsala to East Turkestan. Isolate the cheens in POK.
2) Clear the area around Mansarovar and cut straight across Northern Arunachal. No more of this standing on 18000 foot peaks.
3) Invade the big dam complex and seize Brahmaputra headwaters. All 3 places have to be held against sustained counterattack and air strikes. Air superiority will be very tough to establish, but is crucial.
So I would say, build planes like crazy, and store up fuel, because tanker routes will get hit.
To achieve these objectives, a half-million many army will have to be sustained in the high plateau. Face that. Takes IMMENSE logistics.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 21 Aug 2017 07:56

I think it is wise for the Chinese to withdraw from the SCS, leave alone the IOR. Here on out they will be challenged on all fronts. And, by everyone.

Modi seems to be the person that the world was looking for in MMS.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 21 Aug 2017 08:02

Roger that UB!!

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 21 Aug 2017 08:03

Bishwa wrote:for all its worth

ITBP men with red banner Posted in DFI

https://www.google.co.in/search?biw=360 ... rEg5FmWmlM:

that should end the unseemly spectacle of indians calling indians half wits and liars.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 21 Aug 2017 08:10

From YusufDFI
http://www.dailypioneer.com/columnists/ ... china.html

Doklam: A bitter pill for China
The Pioneer
7-9 minutes

Certainly, a India-China war is not on the cards. The use of military force requires tactical and strategic objectives to achieve targets. Besides, geo-political implications too have to be considered

The Doklam stand-off between India and China is close to two months but there is still no solution in sight, as neither side is willing to take a step back.

Beijing continues to use its media to wage a psychological warfare, in order to scare New Delhi to pressurise it to back off. The latest of such threat was witnessed in an editorial in China Daily, which said that the countdown to war has begun. The editorial titled, ‘New Delhi should come to its senses while it has time’ said, “The countdown to a clash between the two forces has begun, and the clock is ticking away the time to what seems to be an inevitable conclusion.”

This writer is frequently faced with a question if war with China is inevitable. And his answer has always been in the negative. The use of military force requires tactical and strategic objectives and the ability to force a win, to achieve these objectives. Wider geo-political implications must also be considered.

In the current stand-off the tactical objective of the Middle Kingdom is clear: To evict Indian forces from what Beijing considers to be its sovereign territory. But can China achieve this objective? In this writer’s opinion, the answer is no.

Ever since the stand-off started, India has quietly built up troops in the area, which was already considerable. The Indian Army’s Eastern Command has three corps numbering over two lakh troops at its disposal. Apart from this, India has air assets in the area, which can provide close air support to the troops as well as strike Chinese positions, supply lines, forward bases etc. Besides, Indian troops are better positioned in the area, overlooking China’s Chumbi valley that ends in a dagger shape near Bhutan’s Doklam area that China claims to be its own. Indian forces can cut off Chinese supply line and, in fact, take on the Chumbi valley.

China cannot spring a surprise on India as it will have to move at least two lakh troops to take on the nearly 60,000 well-trained and

well-acclimatised Indian troops that are deployed along the eastern sector. Such large movements will be picked up by satellites and other reconnaissance platforms.

Having said that, what are the options for China if it does decide to use force? First, it can open fire on the Indian troops who have blocked the road construction in Doklam. This will be swiftly retaliated by the Indian troops. It will be no more than a shooting contest which will result in casualties on both sides but not alter the positions and end the stand-off. It could also lead to the conflict spiraling out of control.

Second, China can start building up troops in the area over the next month or so into September-October. The 1962 war was started by China in October. The 1967 Nathu-la and Cho-la skirmishes, which India won, was in the month of September and October respectively. But like this writer mentioned earlier, there will not be any element of surprise. India will lie in wait for the Chinese troops, resulting in a bigger shooting contest in which India holds better positions. It can also inflict heavy casualties to China.

Third, China can start a full fledged war against India across the 4,000-kilometres India-China border. This will involve the use of missiles and the Air Force. China has thousands of conventional cruise and ballistic missiles that it can rain on India while New Delhi can cause serious damage to Chinese infrastructure in Tibet.

India is raising a mountain strike corps whose first of three divisions has been raised and is operational. The strike corps’ is being raised to capture the Chinese territory; to bargain any loss of territory to China in areas where Indian defences are weak. India’s air assets are also well placed to conduct offensive operations over Tibet and Xinjiang.

Moreover, Chinese jets have to take off from high altitude bases in Tibet, which restricts the payload it can carry and its range and endurance. On the other hand, Indian jets will take off from near sea level bases and it can carry its full load of weapons and fuel. They also carry variety of modern sensors both indigenous and western which gives it an edge over the Chinese jets.

Besides that, Indian pilots are well trained and also have the advantage of training with the best pilots in the western world.

In fact, a report by NDTV by Vishnu Som, talked about an assessment paper written by Squadron Leader Sameer Joshi, a former Indian Air Force Mirage 2000 fighter pilot. Som writes, according to Squadron Leader Joshi, “Terrain, technology and training will assuredly give the Indian Air Force an edge over the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) in Tibet and southern Xinjiang, thereby counter-balancing the numerical superiority of the PLAAF, at least for some years to come.”

India is also well placed to hurt the Chinese Navy and its trade and energy flows, should the war include the maritime domain, which is likely in the event of a full fledged war.

So, India can counter the Chinese military aggression and take it to a stalemate. The costs in terms of men and material will be immense in the case of a full-fledged war and will come as a huge set back for the economies of both countries. But it won’t help China achieve its military or strategic objectives. On the contrary, the geo-political losses of such a stalemate will be immense for China.

First, it will make a rising India its permanent enemy. It already has generated a lot of ill feeling amongst Indians for bullying Bhutan and precipitating the current stand-off. Chinese industries stand to gain enormously from India’s industrialisation and infrastructure development. It already runs a trade surplus with India to the tune of $60 billion. India will certainly impose trade restrictions on China denying it any share of India’s economic growth.

Second, it will expose the limitations of China’s military power to the rest of the region which is increasingly being bullied by China into territorial concessions.

Third, it will push India into the US corner, something that China doesn’t want and has repeatedly warned against. It could also lead to some kind of alliance with other regional powers, undermining China’s quest for military dominance in the region.

Fourth, it will affect the One-Belt-One-Road project of Chinese President Xi Jinping.

The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China is due in November this year. Will Xi risk a war with India which can result in a stalemate dealing a blow to China’s prestige and Xi’s power or will he swallow a bitter pill and look for a way out of the current crisis? Analysts can only speculate what’s running in the mind of China’s most powerful leader since Mao.

(The writer is editor, Defence Forum India)

vnms · Post by **vnms** » 21 Aug 2017 08:12

When I look up the word hubris, I get China. They could have gone about their business without unnecessarily needling her neighbors. Could have really changed the dynamic in Asia. But their itch to be the big dog and demand respect instead of earning the said respect will be their eventual downfall.

As someone had mentioned earlier, Vietnam or Japan should start building their own islands in Vietnam/Philippines sea.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 21 Aug 2017 08:14

Winnie The Pooh tries to project as a big Colonial plantation owner, as head of PLA Inc. That Gobal Crimes lacist video was quintessential Eleven racism. It was VERY curious that an article in another govt-run daily (what other kind do they have) criticizing that video, was suppressed quickly. That means someone was very afraid to biss off the sugar-daddy of the non-houri with the "seens".

I think Eleven is headed for the Gobi Le-Education Centel to learn the joys of farm life in China. He should learn from the history of The Gang Of Four.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 21 Aug 2017 08:27

Do not know what this "count down" means, BUT, IF Indian were to take some territory, she should never give it back.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 21 Aug 2017 08:35

fanne wrote:One of the thing that is obvious is (reading all the 1962 battles), the attacking force has the initiative and will win.

No

Winning in one area is not a victory. Conventional (and frequently quoted) military wisdom is that an attacking side needs 2:1 or even 3:1 numerical superiority to actually go in an control territory. Going in and coming out at one or more weak spots means nothing other than for psychological effect.

About a decade ago, when I pointed out the same thing - I was railed by Rahrah StarSpangledBannerites who told me that in Iraq the US never had numerical superiority of that sort. I am unable to find those people in 2017 to ask what happened.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 21 Aug 2017 08:38

Eleven compared to Winnie the Pooh? Now I understand why he turns into Winnie the Pooh in this video
http://indiatoday.intoday.in/video/xi-j ... 28149.html

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 21 Aug 2017 08:44

shiv wrote: As the Chinese economy and apparent military progress got bigger in the last 6-7 years and they started churning out copies of American ware from stealth planes to carrier ballet by PLAN men - there was an "equal and opposite" spike in American dhoti shivering (or jeans shivering?) and American respect for this new adversary. The Chinese would have loved nothing more than this new American respect for them. And demands that the Chinese be respected as the Americans do started appearing on BRF as lectures given to unwashed desis who mocked the Chinese.

There has always been a so called American dhoti/jeans shiver from the time of the Soviets to now the Chinese. But is that really authentic behavior? Not really...the American version of dhoti shiver goes something like this:

The US military and military contractors do a dhoti shiver about how big and strong a particular enemy is to the Congress/President who hold the purse strings. The enemy could be the Soviets in the past and China today. The US military has always cried about the "space gap", the "missile gap" etc. etc with their enemy of the moment.

In private their assessment is that they will handily thrash so called "big and strong" enemy with current weaponry.

But in that case how will the monster which is the military industrial complex be fed?

So the American version of dhoti shiver is nothing but an elaborate ploy to open the purse strings wider and shovel ever more money into the defence contractors.

And the reason they get away with this is because the US public is split between those who have blind faith in the ability of the US forces to defeat an enemy and those who know absolutely nothing. The US public does not do a dhoti shiver, they are divided between those who are blindly confident and the rest who are completely clueless.

I suspect that in India also most people do not do a dhoti shiver. But here on BRF we have this strange fascination with dhoti shiver....

Atmavik · Post by **Atmavik** » 21 Aug 2017 08:50

shiv wrote:Eleven compared to Winnie the Pooh? Now I understand why he turns into Winnie the Pooh in this video
http://indiatoday.intoday.in/video/xi-j ... 28149.html

And now Winnie the pooh is banned in Hanistan(true story). it was this pic that apparently crossed the line. I posted an Al Jazeera video in another thread that reports heightened media censorship in the run up to CCP election.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... -Pooh.html

Bade · Post by **Bade** » 21 Aug 2017 09:04

shiv wrote: I don't know if you have fired up Google Earth and looked or not, but if you do you will see two things
1. heavy ITPB presence (a camp) very close by (2.4 km to the west)
2. The area east of that "squared peninsula) is an island of disputed territory where both armies patrol despite the Chinese looking "loop" road. Nearest Chinese camps are 20 km east

A Chinese base with jetties exists further east - and less vulnerable to Indian attack
Some details in my video
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q-CKlBQdWTI

This video is also a very good one and puts even more context to the supply lines to the specific area of interest. I did not view the landmass between the two lakes as an island, as I use the 3D view in google maps most of the time, and not google earth to check the areas out.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 21 Aug 2017 09:29

our dhoti shivering is a mix of genuine naivete based on MSM paidnews dhoti shiver and #blowtomodi psyops.

US dhoti shiver results are in the piechart below - like TSP but in another way, the US is a military in possession of a country

khan · Post by **khan** » 21 Aug 2017 09:42

Now that things have become interesting (and the Chinese have started throwing stones and playing kabbadi

) Khan has decided to re-join the fray.

Given that the Chinese have decided to play kabaddi and chor-police in Ladakh, it makes him think that maybe - they think this is the weakest link.

What say you fine gentlemen? What would happen if Chinese got serious and pre-emptively took out relatively exposed positions/IBTF bases in Ladakh with Cruise missiles to "teach a lesson"? h

How far can China go if they do this?

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 21 Aug 2017 09:56

khan wrote:
What say you fine gentlemen? What would happen if Chinese got serious and pre-emptively took out relatively exposed positions/IBTF bases in Ladakh with Cruise missiles to "teach a lesson"? h

How far can China go if they do this?

Since this is the gazilionth time this exact same question has been asked let me answer for the gazzilion+1th time

1. Cruise mijjile taking out army camps? How many crooj mijjiles? How many camps. It's not as though those camps are waiting to be taken out by a sudden air or mijjile attack
2. Supposing they are taken out - so what? We have men and material deeper inside to replace them

But what happens after that is open to question

1. If that is a prelude to conflict then there has to be prior Chinese mobilization which has not happened. If it happens - we will also step up defences & vigilance further
2. Supposing not much damage is done then India has the choice of doing nothing and branding Chinese the aggressor while building up internal support among Indians to boycott Chinese goods
3. India could do an instant retaliation but with all the media hype after 10 days no one will know that China started it
4. India could wait and show the whole world what China has done, build up wide public support against China, crush the internal Dalals and hit back at "a time and place of our choosing" For example the next time a Doklam or Finger 5 happens - no bulldozer+ banner. Start with machine guns

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 21 Aug 2017 10:02

using good earth i took at a look at two legendary PAF bases - masroor in karachi and mushaf in sargodha.

very well constructed, dispersed and hardened bundobast there. i doubt even a squadron of planes or 30 CMs could shut them down more than a day.
mushaf has a huge weapons storage facility also in a matrix of underground bunkers.

you can extrapolate that to the lots of bases we have in range of theater.

manjgu · Post by **manjgu** » 21 Aug 2017 10:09

vnms...and other guys for the last time a) open google earth...maan merak ...upto chushul shore is south end ..other side is northern shore b) a red line passes from north shore to south shore c) where the line crosses the northern shore into the lake is the place where the incident happened ..squarish looking beach d) the camera is looking down from a height onto the squarish beach where the incident is happening towards the lake and then south shore... general direction chushsul..kakstet.. e) if u r looking down the red line from north to south shore ..the left side is china ..right side is india. now please watch the video...which side is left which side is right..which side is the looping road... the side of looping road is china..there is a rocky outcrop which is towards indian side. ...hope this settles the debate. i sincerely believe India came on tops after this incident..the hans have been reduced to stone throwing... the sequence of events IMHO is ...there is a brawl..a chinese is on ground being thrashed..the chinese flag goes into the dust..is retirevied..dusted...stone throwing... ITBP man is in a vantage position throwing stones..indians like good children holding the banner.. the guy is kicked..falls down and gets up and resumes the fight...a stone hits one of the ITBP chaps..maybe not wearing helmets only woolen cap... he goes down..people rush to him ..both sides retreat...

manjgu · Post by **manjgu** » 21 Aug 2017 10:13

singha i believe wrt sargodha and masroor or any airfield in general..the real target is the air strip..if the strip is sufficinelty damaged and hit repeatedly the ops get affected. i dont believe IAF will waste too much time hitting the hardened bunkers..underground facilities. they will go for the strip onlee...they cant make the strip underground or harden it !!!

Schmidt · Post by **Schmidt** » 21 Aug 2017 10:15

manjgu wrote:vnms...and other guys for the last time a) open google earth...maan merak ...upto chushul shore is south end ..other side is northern shore b) a red line passes from north shore to south shore c) where the line crosses the northern shore into the lake is the place where the incident happened ..squarish looking beach d) the camera is looking down from a height onto the squarish beach where the incident is happening towards the lake and then south shore... general direction chushsul..kakstet.. e) if u r looking down the red line from north to south shore ..the left side is china ..right side is india. now please watch the video...which side is left which side is right..which side is the looping road... the side of looping road is china..there is a rocky outcrop which is towards indian side. ...hope this settles the debate. i sincerely believe India came on tops after this incident..the hans have been reduced to stone throwing... the sequence of events IMHO is ...there is a brawl..a chinese is on ground being thrashed..the chinese flag goes into the dust..is retirevied..dusted...stone throwing... ITBP man is in a vantage position throwing stones..indians like good children holding the banner.. the guy is kicked..falls down and gets up and resumes the fight...a stone hits one of the ITBP chaps..maybe not wearing helmets only woolen cap... he goes down..people rush to him ..both sides retreat...

-------------------------------------------------

This is all entire nonsense - I dont mean the post but the fracas
The entire Aksai Chin area was annexed illegally by China and the whole area belongs to India
There is no "Chinese side" within Aksai Chin area - lets not fall for this trap

Prasad · Post by **Prasad** » 21 Aug 2017 10:35

Bade wrote:The Highway 219 access via Aksai Chin area to Xinjiang is not as critical to the PLA as it was in the 60s and 70s perhaps anymore as they have developed even better connectivity both south and north of the Gobi to their western boundary areas. I do not think if India were to take over large parts of Aksai Chin area, it would be such a loss for them. Loss of Chumbi valley on the other hand is a real loss of face. We need to focus on the battle here in Ladakh to win land and keep it for good.

Rolling up Xinjiang all the way up to Urumqui is a very definite possibility if we take back Aksai Chin. What is to stop us from liberating the oppressed minorities of Xinjiang from the yoke of the evil Han maoists of the East who never had a claim to rule the western mountains? Remember All their CA oil comes via pipelines through Xinjiang.

Gagan · Post by **Gagan** » 21 Aug 2017 10:38

They need tons and hundreds of Grads and Pinakas, field artillery to pound 24x7
All under UAV and Satellite surveillance
IAF can spread some love to bigger bases

Speaking of sat surveillance, plenty of people possibly willing to jump into the ring to further boost Indias fairly decent abilities

Gagan · Post by **Gagan** » 21 Aug 2017 10:40

Singha wrote:using good earth i took at a look at two legendary PAF bases - masroor in karachi and mushaf in sargodha.

very well constructed, dispersed and hardened bundobast there. i doubt even a squadron of planes or 30 CMs could shut them down more than a day.
mushaf has a huge weapons storage facility also in a matrix of underground bunkers.

you can extrapolate that to the lots of bases we have in range of theater.

What is needed is a true bomber unloading a few tons of different types of bombs all over that area
Or a ballistic missile which can throw like 3-5 tons of bomblets of various sizes all over the place

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 21 Aug 2017 10:45

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1061460.shtml

New Delhi may disrupt BRICS Summit to blackmail Beijing

India orchestrated the standoff to not just guarantee the security of the Siliguri Corridor - India's sensitive "chicken's neck" connecting its central and northeast regions, but more importantly to jeopardize China's Belt and Road initiative. In this way it can reverse its strategic disparity with China in South Asia and the Indian Ocean region and tighten its grip on small countries there. Given the rising nationalism in India, its leadership believes that the country has entered its third flourishing period since its independence and has the backing of the US and Japan to confront China. Meanwhile, Indian leaders have misjudged the will and resolution of Chinese government and leadership in defending China's territorial sovereignty.
India has calculated that China worries any armed conflict with other countries will spoil its peaceful development strategy and reputation for advocating peaceful solutions to international conflicts and disputes, impact China's investment in and economic cooperation with India, and disturb the upcoming 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China and BRICS summit. It also assumes that a Chinese military undergoing reform dares not start a fight with Indian troops. India hopes to achieve its strategic goals by delaying withdrawal. With repeated requests to talk with China over the standoff and to withdraw its troops simultaneously with China, India wants to compel China to admit that there are territorial disputes over the Sikkim section of the China-India boundary, and admit India's concerns about the Siliguri Corridor are justified. Yet once China does as expected, it would suffer unbearable losses both diplomatically and internally. As for the BRICS summit, it is merely a forum for emerging countries, far more important for its geopolitical symbolism than its actual results. Due to India's disruption, in recent years BRICS has barely made any progress in promoting internal cooperation and reform of global economic governance. In fact, any international organization in which India has a big say can't play its due role. A successful BRICS summit can lift up China's international reputation, but it can't offset the losses that an inappropriate handling of the Doklam standoff will inflict.

If India feels humiliated in the standoff, it may undermine the outcomes of the Xiamen summit. There is a possibility that Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi won't attend the summit and send lower-ranking officials instead.However, it's worth noting that India needs BRICS more than China does. BRICS has provided a platform for India to become an international rule-maker. Besides, India uses BRICS to balance its relations with China, and wants to attract Chinese investment via the New Development Bank and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. India also intends to maintain its relationship with Russia through BRICS. In the Doklam standoff, China must gear up without any hesitation. China has to enhance communication and coordination with Russia, Brazil, South Africa and other developing countries, and make clear to the international community that India intends to undermine the cooperation between emerging and developing countries and blackmail China at the cost of the common interests of developing countries and South-South cooperation. So far, Russia hasn't made its voice heard on the standoff. But it must be aware of the damage that India's moves will make to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, BRICS cooperation and regional stability, as well as to Russia's strategic interests. This year marks the 10th anniversary of BRICS' establishment. China has to work with Russia, Brazil, South Africa and other developing nations to foster the BRICS-plus model and steadily promote its enlargement. Even without Indian participation, BRICS will turn into a new platform for Belt and Road cooperation and South-South cooperation, and take in more members. BRICS will not decline as the West expects, but instead fare better.

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 21 Aug 2017 10:48

khan wrote:Now that things have become interesting (and the Chinese have started throwing stones and playing kabbadi ) Khan has decided to re-join the fray.

Given that the Chinese have decided to play kabaddi and chor-police in Ladakh, it makes him think that maybe - they think this is the weakest link.

What say you fine gentlemen? What would happen if Chinese got serious and pre-emptively took out relatively exposed positions/IBTF bases in Ladakh with Cruise missiles to "teach a lesson"? h

How far can China go if they do this?

If they hit India now, after making such a song and dance about it (so that the hitting cannot be hushed up), they will make a multi-generational enemy of India, as well as probably 90% of Indians on the planet.

If this is the fate Chinese choose for themselves, no one can help them. So much for ancient civilizational wisdom.

Prasad · Post by **Prasad** » 21 Aug 2017 10:49

UlanBatori wrote:There are three huge military objectives worth committing significant forces:
1) Cut the Akshay Hind road that connects Uttar Dharmsala to East Turkestan. Isolate the cheens in POK.
2) Clear the area around Mansarovar and cut straight across Northern Arunachal. No more of this standing on 18000 foot peaks.
3) Invade the big dam complex and seize Brahmaputra headwaters. All 3 places have to be held against sustained counterattack and air strikes. Air superiority will be very tough to establish, but is crucial.
So I would say, build planes like crazy, and store up fuel, because tanker routes will get hit.
To achieve these objectives, a half-million many army will have to be sustained in the high plateau. Face that. Takes IMMENSE logistics.

Not just the Brahmaputra but the western rivers as well. There was an 'expert' on Gobar Times who said Hydrographic data (which is usually shared and is particularly of importance now given the floods in the NE) cannot, understandably, be shared at this moment given the conflict at Doklam. That is the level of shamelessness of the chicoms. Give no quarter I say and ensure our water safety for the next century by protecting our river sources in Tibet. Justified enough claim one would say. Given time those buggers will build more tunnels to divert the brahmaputra towards their east and choke our water sources. Not just us but BD will suffer too. Given how critical freshwater sources will be in this century, this is one aim the government shuold start putting out and making claims.

Gagan · Post by **Gagan** » 21 Aug 2017 10:50

OT
But Col Purohit just got Bail !!!

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 21 Aug 2017 10:57

Gagan wrote:OT
But Col Purohit just got Bail !!!

Aap ke muh mein ghee shakkar

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 21 Aug 2017 11:00

Good start, but should be acquitted and reinstated after getting unconditional apology.

amohan2001 · Post by **amohan2001** » 21 Aug 2017 11:55

I think now even India can not, if it wanted to, save China from losing face this time. We just need to decide how much pound of flesh we want to extract.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 21 Aug 2017 12:36

We must keep our eyes firmly on the ball.Yet again media reports say that "we do not think that the PRC will go to war"...for the usual reasons...too expensive for both nations,etc.,etc.

China is at the crossroads in its history.OBO will look after its eco needs for decades.It therefore wants this achieved any which way.Cutting deals with smaller nations whose leaders are "looked after" (Africa)and land/atoll grabbing in the ICS,throwing its weight around.With Western nations,their economies are now so tied up with China that they simply acquiesce,wanting China to but their aircraft,cars,etc.,that is until Trump arrived.His maverick methods are something that the Chinese dislioke,esp. when he blames them for the NoKo standoff and defiance in the ICS.

The Chinese armed forces ,beefed up with decades of eqpt.,etc.are also in a gung-ho mood,itching to kick someone in the butt just as the US has done in the MEast,etc.This they hope would raise the prestige of the PLA.They've increased numbers involved in UN peacekeeping forces.The hoped for capitulation by India in Doklam has caught them off guard.They're now assessing their mil options depending upon the attitude of India post BRICS.There are enough reasons (massive floods,etc.) for Mr.Modi to stay at home and send some lesser mortal to BRICS,preferably the good Dr."SS",former FM,who wouldn't pull his punches.Media reports say that India is engaged with Russia to persuade the Chinese to stand down. The future of BRICS depends upon he next Chinese move,that would completely derail Russia's efforts at creating a non-Western alternative for developing nations and also send the SCO with India's membership of it into confusion.

We have to plan for the worst case hoping for things to diplomatically improve,but in the current mood of the "Middle Kingdom",where its arrogance is at an all time high,most unlikely that it will accommodate Indian expectations. The Sino-Indian stand-of could last for a v.long time.One has the Korean spat as an example of just how long disputes can remain unresolved.

Meanwhile,we must do as much as poss. to get the boycott of Chinese goods going in every city and town across the nation.I'm trying to organise something along with an organisation.But the message should spread from homes,to friends,workplace,children-to their schools,etc.,etc.Even a 10% drop in buying Indian instead of Chinese goods means around $5-6B!

AjayKK · Post by **AjayKK** » 21 Aug 2017 12:40

Gagan wrote:People should also remember that china is a country that shares a border with like 13 countries, but has border disputes with like 20!!!
Hain ji! That is some shit that the chinese have managed to pull, more border disputes than borders !!!!

PS: Numbers quoted in this post is a guesstimate. Please double check exact numbers before posting

Times of India took the lead after your post!

http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Arti ... 2017022005

nits · Post by **nits** » 21 Aug 2017 12:57

shiv wrote:
India is raising a mountain strike corps whose first of three divisions has been raised and is operational.

Sorry for a Noob Q; but how many division a corps is supposed to have...

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 21 Aug 2017 13:02

We should petition the editor of the TOI that the so-called "South China Sea" should be renamed as the ICS .

The Chinese must've put a curse on the USS John McCain,just involved in a collision.

https://sputniknews.com/asia/2017081210 ... -tensions/
Xcpts:

South China Sea Tensions Escalate, Risk 'Involving More and More Countries'
16:47 12.08.2017(
China accused the United States of breaching its sovereignty and international law norms after an American warship came close to the Spratly archipelago in the South China Sea. Beijing claims the islands to be part of its territory.
"The USS John S. McCain entered the neighboring waters of relevant islands and reefs of China's Nansha Qundao without the permission of the Chinese government. … The relevant acts of the US warship violated Chinese laws and international law, severely undermined China's sovereignty and security," Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Geng Shuang said in a statement.

Still Building: Think Tank Says Beijing Continuing South China Sea Construction (PHOTOS)
On August 10, a US guided missile destroyer, the USS John S. McCain, sailed within 6 miles of the man-made Mischief Reef in the Spratly archipelago in the South China Sea, during a "freedom of navigation exercise" in the disputed region.
According to the Chinese Foreign Ministry, such actions do not contribute to sustaining stability in the region, being the "biggest factor in the 'militarization' of the South China Sea."

"China has been unswervingly determined to safeguard its territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests and uphold peace and stability in the South China Sea. The provocation by the US side has compelled the Chinese side to take measures to further enhance its capability to defend its territory," the spokesperson added.

Speaking to Radio Sputnik, Vladimir Terekhov, a Russian expert on the Asia-Pacific region, suggested that the current situation in the region risks further escalation.
"In the long run, the situation may evolve into something similar to the Korean crisis, with systematic escalations or a direct standoff. Tensions are mounting. This is a gradual process, and the problem is that the South China Sea is now becoming a geopolitical whirlpool sucking in more and more countries. This is not good," Terekhov pointed out.
The expert also shared his thought on the possibility of an open military confrontation in the South China Sea.

"The US is still not ready to give up showing its presence in this region. A number of bilateral alliances have been established there since the 1950s. During the presidency of Barack Obama, Washington made attempts to pull out of some of the agreements [concerning security in the region]. The move was opposed by many parties, including European allies, Japan and others, and the US stepped back. But this is the main danger of this geopolitical whirlpool," Terekhov said.

Adding Fuel to Fire: S China Sea is in Epicenter of Int'l Brawls Again Making ‘Co-Existing’ Impossible
Chinese authorities have repeatedly voiced their protests against US actions in the region, which are considered by Beijing as violations of its own sovereignty.

In July 2016, The Hague's Permanent Court of Arbitration ruled that China has no rights for territorial claims in the region. According to the ruling, the disputed Spratly Islets are not an exceptional economic zone. China has not recognized the ruling.

ashthor · Post by **ashthor** » 21 Aug 2017 13:10

The paki front is quite...while the han is creating disturbances...guess after the han quietens down
the paki front will wake up...some ping pong going on.

manju · Post by **manju** » 21 Aug 2017 14:29

ashthor wrote:The paki front is quite...while the han is creating disturbances...guess after the han quietens down
the paki front will wake up...some ping pong going on.

u mean pig pong

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 21 Aug 2017 14:37

We are still have the defensive mindset and posture as is clear below. That is not to say that we will not grab some territory in Tibet but that is mainly as exchanges for Indian losses. We will attack Chinese position on Tibet as part of a defensive war to cut off Chinese troops on the border. There are no plan currently to boldly take the fight to Tibet.

http://www.tribuneindia.com/news/nation ... 55150.html
LAC ‘war-gamed’, no free run for China

In the past decade or so, India has “militarily tailored” its defences along the Himalayas and China could be surprised if an armed clash breaks out.

A repeat of the 1962 debacle, when Peoples Liberation Army of China, with a few exceptions, literally overran the Indian military defence, is just not possible in 2017, is an assessment in India.

In early 2004, India stepped up efforts to secure areas along the 3,488-km Line of Actual Control (LAC) — the de facto boundary. Every possible route of ingress is continuously “war gamed” by the Army. “War-gaming” is an art of predicting future outcomes of military postures of rivals, fine-tuned by regular military exercises with the IAF, study of satellite imagery and available inputs.

Since 2004, around 60,000 troops have been added along the LAC. This includes three new Army divisions and three additional brigades. Part of these form the newly raised Mountain Strike Corps. As of now, India has some 14 divisions (13,000-14,000 troops in each) — facing China that has 15-16 divisions facing India.

Over the past five years, a few regiments of tanks have been added to the mechanised forces at specific places in eastern Ladakh and northern Sikkim. In Arunachal Pradesh, India has added troops. It has converted six British-era mud-paved runways into fully paved landing grounds for the IAF. One of these can be a forward base for the Sukhoi-30 MKI fighter jets. Leh has an airfield with abilities to launch 24x7 strikes. Kargil and Thoise in Ladakh have functional airfields.

A complement of Sukhois at Hashimara (at the base of Bhutan) has been tasked to take on offensive in Chumbi Valley — the Doklam plateau stand-off is in the same valley. Tezpur in Assam has Sukhoi tasked to take an offensive role, so is Bareilly in Western UP. A squadron (18 planes) of MiG 29 jets has been added to Adampur (Punjab) to swing over Himachal Pradesh into Tibet.

Modern US-procured planes C-130-J add to the fleet of Russian AN 32. Within hours, fully equipped troops can be dropped in Arunachal Pradesh and eastern Ladakh.

The Indian stance along the LAC is not akin to Jawaharlal Nehru’s 1960-1961 “forward policy”, but it mandates holding on to own claim lines. The “forward policy”, as explained by Neville Maxwell in his book “India’s China war”, entailed taking up permanent positions along the high ridgelines of eastern Ladakh.

There are 12 spots of major disputes along the LAC besides several minor ones. The sanctity of these spots is maintained by getting real-time satellite updates on Chinese movement; countering their LAC patrols with own patrols; and maintaining a level of firepower. The Army and the Indo-Tibetan Border Police (ITBP) have been tasked with conducting joint patrols along the LAC at designated points, identified by the high-power China Study Group.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 21 Aug 2017 15:32

"Offense is the best form of defence" "Fortune favours the bold",i another famous quote.In any spat with China,we must be calculatingly bold and strike where it will hurt the enemy most. Indian raids and ops inside Tibet ,aimed at destroying its airfields,infrastructure,etc.,will disrupt its communications,cause logistic problems and complicate any Chinese mil. strategy that it had planned against india. Its prime targets would be Ar.Pradesh and Tawang,threatening this key v.ancient centre of Tibetan Buddhism and thus wounding by default the Dalai Lama.ladakh its primary target on the western front. However,as this piece below says,if the yellow-livered Chinkos think that they're in for another '62 "take away",they're going to be in for a v.rude shock.

http://www.dailypioneer.com/columnists/ ... china.html

DOKLAM: A BITTER PILL FOR CHINA
Monday, 21 August 2017 | Yusuf T Unjhawala | in Oped

Doklam: A bitter pill for China
Certainly, a India-China war is not on the cards. The use of military force requires tactical and strategic objectives to achieve targets. Besides, geo-political implications too have to be considered

The Doklam stand-off between India and China is close to two months but there is still no solution in sight, as neither side is willing to take a step back.

Beijing continues to use its media to wage a psychological warfare, in order to scare New Delhi to pressurise it to back off. The latest of such threat was witnessed in an editorial in China Daily, which said that the countdown to war has begun. The editorial titled, ‘New Delhi should come to its senses while it has time’ said, “The countdown to a clash between the two forces has begun, and the clock is ticking away the time to what seems to be an inevitable conclusion.”

This writer is frequently faced with a question if war with China is inevitable. And his answer has always been in the negative. The use of military force requires tactical and strategic objectives and the ability to force a win, to achieve these objectives. Wider geo-political implications must also be considered.

In the current stand-off the tactical objective of the Middle Kingdom is clear: To evict Indian forces from what Beijing considers to be its sovereign territory. But can China achieve this objective? In this writer’s opinion, the answer is no.

Ever since the stand-off started, India has quietly built up troops in the area, which was already considerable. The Indian Army’s Eastern Command has three corps numbering over two lakh troops at its disposal. Apart from this, India has air assets in the area, which can provide close air support to the troops as well as strike Chinese positions, supply lines, forward bases etc. Besides, Indian troops are better positioned in the area, overlooking China’s Chumbi valley that ends in a dagger shape near Bhutan’s Doklam area that China claims to be its own. Indian forces can cut off Chinese supply line and, in fact, take on the Chumbi valley.

China cannot spring a surprise on India as it will have to move at least two lakh troops to take on the nearly 60,000 well-trained and

well-acclimatised Indian troops that are deployed along the eastern sector. Such large movements will be picked up by satellites and other reconnaissance platforms.

Having said that, what are the options for China if it does decide to use force? First, it can open fire on the Indian troops who have blocked the road construction in Doklam. This will be swiftly retaliated by the Indian troops. It will be no more than a shooting contest which will result in casualties on both sides but not alter the positions and end the stand-off. It could also lead to the conflict spiraling out of control.

Second, China can start building up troops in the area over the next month or so into September-October. The 1962 war was started by China in October. The 1967 Nathu-la and Cho-la skirmishes, which India won, was in the month of September and October respectively. But like this writer mentioned earlier, there will not be any element of surprise. India will lie in wait for the Chinese troops, resulting in a bigger shooting contest in which India holds better positions. It can also inflict heavy casualties to China.

Third, China can start a full fledged war against India across the 4,000-kilometres India-China border. This will involve the use of missiles and the Air Force. China has thousands of conventional cruise and ballistic missiles that it can rain on India while New Delhi can cause serious damage to Chinese infrastructure in Tibet.

India is raising a mountain strike corps whose first of three divisions has been raised and is operational. The strike corps’ is being raised to capture the Chinese territory; to bargain any loss of territory to China in areas where Indian defences are weak. India’s air assets are also well placed to conduct offensive operations over Tibet and Xinjiang.

Moreover, Chinese jets have to take off from high altitude bases in Tibet, which restricts the payload it can carry and its range and endurance. On the other hand, Indian jets will take off from near sea level bases and it can carry its full load of weapons and fuel. They also carry variety of modern sensors both indigenous and western which gives it an edge over the Chinese jets.

Besides that, Indian pilots are well trained and also have the advantage of training with the best pilots in the western world.

In fact, a report by NDTV by Vishnu Som, talked about an assessment paper written by Squadron Leader Sameer Joshi, a former Indian Air Force Mirage 2000 fighter pilot. Som writes, according to Squadron Leader Joshi, “Terrain, technology and training will assuredly give the Indian Air Force an edge over the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) in Tibet and southern Xinjiang, thereby counter-balancing the numerical superiority of the PLAAF, at least for some years to come.”

India is also well placed to hurt the Chinese Navy and its trade and energy flows, should the war include the maritime domain, which is likely in the event of a full fledged war.

So, India can counter the Chinese military aggression and take it to a stalemate. The costs in terms of men and material will be immense in the case of a full-fledged war and will come as a huge set back for the economies of both countries. But it won’t help China achieve its military or strategic objectives. On the contrary, the geo-political losses of such a stalemate will be immense for China.

First, it will make a rising India its permanent enemy. It already has generated a lot of ill feeling amongst Indians for bullying Bhutan and precipitating the current stand-off. Chinese industries stand to gain enormously from India’s industrialisation and infrastructure development. It already runs a trade surplus with India to the tune of $60 billion. India will certainly impose trade restrictions on China denying it any share of India’s economic growth.

Second, it will expose the limitations of China’s military power to the rest of the region which is increasingly being bullied by China into territorial concessions.

Third, it will push India into the US corner, something that China doesn’t want and has repeatedly warned against. It could also lead to some kind of alliance with other regional powers, undermining China’s quest for military dominance in the region.

Fourth, it will affect the One-Belt-One-Road project of Chinese President Xi Jinping.

The 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China is due in November this year. Will Xi risk a war with India which can result in a stalemate dealing a blow to China’s prestige and Xi’s power or will he swallow a bitter pill and look for a way out of the current crisis? Analysts can only speculate what’s running in the mind of China’s most powerful leader since Mao.

(The writer is editor, Defence Forum India)

PS:More than the sue of the IAF in any such conflict ,would be the use of the IN in the IOR,Malacca Straits and even in the Indo-China Sea.
I postulate the foll:

1.The IN destroys.captures any Chinese merchantman transiting the IOR,esp.l tankers . A "string of flaming pearls" right across the IOR,Malacca Straits and even in the ICS,destroy the image of the PLAN and the Chinese vulnerability at sea to the entire globe.

2.IN strikes at Chinese bases at Djibouti and perhaps even at Gwadar by the VikA carrier task force,using MIG-29Ks with stand-off missiles,would send a v.strong signal esp. to African states enamoured of the Chinese. I rule out any strike at Hambantota as Sri Lanka is too sensitive a nation just 25 miles away from us,with a rich heritage of Buddhism and Hinduism.However,the IN destroying/sinking vessels at Htota,just off the Lankan coast at both Colombo and Htota,just outside the 12 NM limit,would speak for itself!

3.Using the A&N islands as a forward base,LRMP aircraft,MKIs,and naval assets to stop any Chinese transit through the Malacca Straits .The recently retd. Bears LRMP/bombers,should be brought back into service asap,as they have immense range and endurance used extensively still by the RuAF/RuN,esp. in the bombing role,as we've seen in Syria and testing UK air defences. Our Bears should carry LR ASMs,one is sure that we have a qty. of BMos ASMs ready for "testing",apart from Nirbhays and other Ru ASMs.

4.Bears and IN subs to be used to attack targets of opportunity in the Indo-China Sea,Hainan island/naval base and hunt for the Varyag./LIaoning. INS Chakra must be deployed in the ICS.She has a 100 day endurance and can after such a patrol replenish supplies etc. in the A&N islands.A couple of Klub armed Kilos can also be sent into the Malacca Straits waters ,upto the ICS to ambush any PLAN subs or warships attempting to transit into the IOR.Had we had more subs available,we could've sent them to patrol the waters outside the principal PLAN naval bases to pick off targets of opportunity just as the Germans did in WW2 in the Atlantic/Scapa Flow.

5.A combination of naval assets to also destroy any Chinese merchantmen/naval assets operating just outside the territorialk waters of other neighbouring countries in the IOR,esp. BDesh,Burma,the Maldives (SL already mentioned).

In this we can be sure of much assistance/intel from the US,Japan,OZ,Vietnam and other nations who feel threatened by China.The naval domination of the IOR must be total and China must suffer naval losses in the Indo-China Sea,which it claims as belonging to it. What is now needed is the most urgent moves to equip the IN (apart from the other two servcies) with the most critically needed weapons (torpedoes for Scorpenes),spares,ammo,etc. for a prolonged naval conflict.