Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

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nam
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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by nam »

Singha wrote:There is no way really to prevent annual floods in assam the whole thing is a 100km wide flood plain with highest silt carriage in the world

People from mainland would find it hard to believe how watery it is just the train to ghy would cross tens of small and medium rivers from bhutan and countless wetlands

My best memories of childhood is the heavy rain drumming on our tin roof as i crawl under a blanket reading books
In such a terrain SDRE Indian Army blitzed and captured the most densely populated area in the world, defeating US equipped and trained TFTA Paki Army.

And the Chinese think we are weak, because we don't make HD videos of marching soldiers. :D
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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by schinnas »

UlanBatori wrote:I don't see why IoT sensors are needed (a few could be dropped into the big lizard dams, sure). Soldiers are near these rivers (I HOPE!!!!) and can call in the water level. It's critical to road access through the valleys anyway so their lives depend on it.
Indian govt machinery including army works on the basis of siloed ownership. Army sentries near any river banks may not be trained to scientifically measure or quantify water level and flow. Even if they can, this calls for a different level of real time coordination between two government entities. Very difficult, sir.

US has spy satellites that can supposedly see through fog and clouds. In the spirit of yankee-hindi bhai bhai between Trump and Modi, can we atleast get the data if not the technology itself? ☺️
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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by nam »

On the topic of Modi visiting BRICS, he should go. And not utter a single word about the standoff. Give the usual lofty speeches about partnership yada yada.

Foreign Office should specifically say, there is no bilateral planned, just like G20 summit. Modi can do a photo opp like G20. If the Chinese want to talk, they can come and talk.

Putin is not going to intervene until the first shots are fired. By that time he would sold few billions of arms to us and some S500 orders from 11.

Why should we leave the field open for 11 to create a propaganda victory.
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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by UlanBatori »

schinnasji, buying satellites with cloud-penetrating imaging does nothing if ISRO and CWPRI (Central Water and Power Research Institute) cannot communicate, hain? All they have to do is stick poles with levels marked, on the riverbanks. Soldiers can see how many meters the way has risen by just looking at them - or take cellphone pics and send them. So this whole :(( about lizard not sending data, seems more and more like a cop-out by Indian met ppl for not giving timely warning.
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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by srin »

We should attend the BRICS. Heck, we should say "hindi chini bhai bhai" and start reciting panchsheel and all such Nehruvian nonsense.

At the same time, supply Brahmos and Akash to Vietnam, complete the raising of MSC, physically push the chinese off all mountain passes, derecognize one-china policy, and prepare to win a hot war.

Diplomacy is the art of saying "nice doggie" till you find a big stone ...
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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by nam »

Any Mandarin readers here?

Apparently chinese version of 67

http://news.junmin.org/2017/xinwen_jish ... 32755.html
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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by Manish_Sharma »

pankajs wrote:Well then Modi should hide in a Bunker under Delhi. Sastri died in what was then USSR. US admin at one time made quite a effort to nail Modi.

Why should we trust Russia and US anymore? And what about the countries that has heavy Chinese influence. Should they too be off limits?
Reagan administration had arrested Osho for 12 days illegaly and then gave him radiation + Thallium poison which made him very sick and he used to sleep 18 hours a day to survive for next 5 years with all body in pain most of the time. He died a painful death after 5 years.

Chinese can do something similar to Modi, so he won't be able to function with full energy in Rashtra Nirmaan. We need to take care, there shouldn't be a redux of Hemraj Vikramaditya.
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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by pankajs »

If that is the case shouldn't Modi also avoid US [Osho] and Russia [LBS] along with China? Where else will Modi be safe besides Delhi?
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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by Gagan »

Aditya_V wrote:Looking at Google earth, in the Chushul area, the Chinese have built thier last border post exactly 900 meters from the erstwhile Chushul airstrip. ANy idea instead of attacking through the Spanggur gap why did the Chinese choose to attaack through Rezang La in 1962 and who occupies Rezang La today alogn with Rezang La road. The Tsaka La Road running from Demchok to Chushul looks very vulnerable. Our Rezang La war memorial is on around 4KM away from the last Chinese Outpost on the Spanggur gap near the former Chushul airstrip.

Regarding Chip chap, I hardly see Chinese Infrastructure there today. I think this winter we must make sure the PLA and PLAAF keep significant troops on the Plateau, keeping 300k troops is unsustainable for them in the long term, so far like the Pakis they have been intruding whenever they feel like mostly in summer and Moonsoon season without feeling they need to defend thier areas.
Aditya-V ji
I don't know if someone has answered your questions, but the chinese attacked from the spangur gap area. They came along the south bank of the Pagong Tso, crossed the Yu La pass ( 33°37'48.62"N, 78°52'22.41"E) next to Black Top mountain and attacked Indian positions along Chushul and sppangur gap. India stopped them at spanggur gap and they had a lot of casualties, being cut down by machine guns from the AMX tanks.

Their attempt to take Rezang La was to capture the Tsaka La pass ( 33°29'3.72"N, 78°44'58.90"E) to prevent reinforcements to come to Chushul from the south from along the Indus. They faced stiff resistance at Rezang La, but then withdrew as they must have been trying to consolidate down south and running low on rations. They retreated south to near Dumchele area, where they still have a post 33° 4'30.81"N, 79°10'5.50"E
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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by Gyan »

srin wrote:We should attend the BRICS. Heck, we should say "hindi chini bhai bhai" and start reciting panchsheel and all such Nehruvian nonsense.

At the same time, supply Brahmos and Akash to Vietnam, complete the raising of MSC, physically push the chinese off all mountain passes, derecognize one-china policy, and prepare to win a hot war.

Diplomacy is the art of saying "nice doggie" till you find a big stone ...
+1
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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by Prem »

Crude minded Xi may take pee at the border to act mischievously on border in middle of BRICS summit .
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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by Gagan »

Chinese posts in the Aksai Chin:

1. Post: 35°17'56.74"N, 78° 3'33.99"E
2. Post: 35°19'47.32"N, 78°10'40.10"E
3. Post - Transit camp in Qizil Jilga: 35°19'11.35"N, 78°48'54.99"E
4 Arty Gun Position: 35°18'40.39"N, 78°17'43.65"E. There are other possible gun positions visible, where they have roads built, but no signs visible on current images.
5. Weitan Post: 35° 0'2.43"N, 78°35'13.34"E
6. Kongka-La post: 34°19'50.65"N, 79° 6'39.85"E
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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by pankajs »

Prem wrote:Crude minded Xi may take pee at the border to act mischievously on border in middle of BRICS summit .
That truly is a risk so we have to be on alert all across the LAC and be ready to do a counter deployment across LAC if required going behind the Chinese troops.

OTOH, Xi will be mindful that any poking and prodding at the LAC while Modi is at BRICS is only going to push India to harden its stance on a lot of issue and not just at the border. One example is the Free trade agreement that the Chinese are trying to hammer out for the region. Indian obstinacy will washout all Chinese efforts at least push it back and dilute its impact. Chinese have the biggest stake in getting it done. There are other pressure points.

BRICS might also be the occasion to thrash out an agreement over Dokalam. That would be another incentive for the Chinese not to indulge in poking at the LAC at least till the talks are over.

BTW, there is another leverage that Modi has specific to the BRICS summit. That is the joint declaration. I am not sure how it works but India can throw a wrench in that process and stall it or get it cancelled. That would be a direct embarrassment to the Chinese like no other; worse than Doklam if there is no joint declaration at the end or if there are two declaration. Even the appearance of a split at BRICS will be an embarrassment to China. One has just to recall what happened at BRICS Goa and why GOI has to bow down to the Chinese and Russian pressure on Bakistan. Not getting bakis named in it was one level but not getting a joint declaration out would have taken it to another very embarrassing level.

In-spit of the above Xi might still prefer the way of the bully. So be it.
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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by pankajs »

Agreement would include the Chinese troop going back to their base taking their road building equipment with then and clearing of the latest build. Chinese patrol would still be allowed because the status is still in dispute. It would be return to the status before say May 2017.

That would be better than both armies sitting on Doklam.
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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by pankajs »

Gagan wrote:Chinese posts in the Aksai Chin:

1. Post: 35°17'56.74"N, 78° 3'33.99"E
2. Post: 35°19'47.32"N, 78°10'40.10"E
3. Post - Transit camp in Qizil Jilga: 35°19'11.35"N, 78°48'54.99"E
4 Arty Gun Position: 35°18'40.39"N, 78°17'43.65"E. There are other possible gun positions visible, where they have roads built, but no signs visible on current images.
5. Weitan Post: 35° 0'2.43"N, 78°35'13.34"E
6. Kongka-La post: 34°19'50.65"N, 79° 6'39.85"E
Thanks. Some of the above are simply not market on the maps is unsearchable. Was looking for the info else the other option was to scan the whole area.
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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by Gagan »

The maps are still of 2010 vintage on google earth etc. So things might change once maps are updated

There are two ground radars. One next to Pagong Tso in Srijap. The other is on a hillock in Demchock which looks at Fukche airstrip
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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by nam »

Gagan wrote: Their attempt to take Rezang La was to capture the Tsaka La pass ( 33°29'3.72"N, 78°44'58.90"E) to prevent reinforcements to come to Chushul from the south from along the Indus. They faced stiff resistance at Rezang La, but then withdrew as they must have been trying to consolidate down south and running low on rations. They retreated south to near Dumchele area, where they still have a post 33° 4'30.81"N, 79°10'5.50"E
The Chinese could create some trouble in Ladakh, however correct me if I am wrong they can mountain only infantry attacks. The only flat area is the Indus valley in South Ladakh, where we will mount a armor offensive and cut off G219. Other entry areas are pure mountains.

The Chinese would be desperate to stop a Armour offensive towards Ngari.

Even though we say Aksai Hind was lost in 62, the reality is Chinese already captured it way before 62. I don't see how they could have mounted major offensive in East Ladakh.
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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by pankajs »

Gagan wrote:The maps are still of 2010 vintage on google earth etc. So things might change once maps are updated

There are two ground radars. One next to Pagong Tso in Srijap. The other is on a hillock in Demchock which looks at Fukche airstrip
Would you have the co-ordinates of Lanak La and Hot spring
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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by UlanBatori »

I think Modi should go wearing a Winnie The Pooh t-shirt.
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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by UlanBatori »

BTW, a short sanity break:
a) there is a reason why Indian hydrologists are screaming about lack of lizard data. Indian army ppl must have detected rapid rise in water levels.
b) the reason why lizards are not releasing data is the same: they released a lot of water instead and are culpable for half the floods in Assam: India may well be entitled to demand compensation in world courts for this.
c) and this is the sanity break: I think they were forced to do so because of huge floods in cheen. Lots of ppl killed including Political Commissars. For the greatest infrastructure experts in the Dunia, this poor planning must have come as very severe loss of face. It is quite possible that they could not take any more flow in their rivers, and their dam controllers were ordered at gunpoint to divert the water into India.
d) Indians are right that the rains in Assam don't explain the floods: the rains dumped on the lizards this year. Quite possible that half their Made in China highway overpasses are floating 50 miles away.

Someone could have a lot of fun doing a deep dive (pun intended) into lizard news about the actual flood situation. May be like Pak Indus situation of a few years ago.
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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by UlanBatori »

Look at this
87 DEAD in floods.

Made In China quality:
Nearly 50,000 homes have collapsed, it said.
OK, another 500 deaths coming from execution by firing squad.
Altogether about 8.6 million people have been affected by the flooding, according state media and local government reports. (multiply x10 to get the Truth As V Report on PeeAref)
Large parts of China have been inundated with rain this summer, killing more than 200 people.
Heavy rains had already pushed many lakes and rivers in the Yangtze Valley close to flooding by early July 2010, and rain kept falling. Global Times reported that 39 people had drowned along the Yangtze between July 8 and 13, and some 810,000 hectares of cropland had been destroyed.
This color-coded image shows rainfall amounts around the city of Shanghai from July 6 to 12, 2010. The heaviest rainfall amounts—400 millimeters or nearly 16 inches—appear in dark blue. The lightest amounts—50 millimeters or less than 2 inches—appear in light green.

The heaviest rainfall amounts occur west-southwest of Shanghai. The Yangtze River empties into the ocean just north of Shanghai, but the river’s route takes it through an area southwest of the city, including the area experiencing heavy rain.

This image is based on data from the Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis produced at Goddard Space Flight Center, which estimates rainfall by combining measurements from many satellites and calibrating them using rainfall measurements from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite.
Related Resources
Global Times. (2010, July 13). More people drown in floods. Accessed July 13, 2010.
Aha! u say, but how does this relate to Himalayas etc? Point is that they are reporting all these from Yangtse river and points east, which is the Hana that they care about. The rain is all over, from north China to south china. So it must be orders of magnitude worse in the Kunming basin and points east. They just don't report it. To get a sense of THAT, let's go to Vietnam:

Heavy rains to continue pounding Vietnam as another storm looms
July 23, 2017
A tropical depression has strengthened into a storm brewing over the South China Sea (which Vietnam calls the East Sea) and is forecast to cause heavy rains in Vietnam’s northern and central provinces on Tuesday.
According to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF), as of 1 p.m. on Sunday, the storm was around 140 kilometers (87 miles) southeast of China’s Hainan Island, with gusts of wind blowing up to 75 kilometers per hour.
The storm is expected to be 210 kilometers (130 miles) southeast of Vietnamese coasts on Tuesday afternoon, causing heavy rains from Thanh Hoa to Thua Thien Hue provinces on that day.
The storm, named Sonca, is the fourth to develop over the East Sea this year. Tropical Storm Talas, the second storm to hit Vietnam, killed at least eight people and damaged buildings and roads across northern and central Vietnam after making landfall last Monday.
Weather forecasters in Vietnam are predicting a particularly stormy typhoon season this year, with 13-15 typhoons and tropical depressions expected to develop over the East Sea. Three to four are likely to make landfall in central Vietnam.
Last year, 10 typhoons and tropical depressions developed over the East Sea, four of which hit Vietnam’s mainland.
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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by anupmisra »

Take that Yindooostan!!
Muslims living in China’s Xinjiang are ‘happiest in world
Muslims living in China’s far western region of Xinjiang are the happiest in the world and people should not believe the lies spread by extremists and their Western supporters, a senior official wrote on Friday in an unusually strongly worded piece.
Writing in the official Xinjiang Daily, the region’s deputy foreign publicity director, Ailiti Saliyev, said Xinjiang was stable, harmonious, prosperous, open and modern.
“Many people say from the bottom of their heart: ’The happiest Muslims in the world live in Xinjiang
The problem stems from the “evil collusion” between extremists and “hostile Western forces”
Extremists ....also laud criminal elements as “warriors resisting the oppression of the Han Chinese government” and “the mother of the Uighurs”, the official added, a reference to Uighur leader Rebiya Kadeer, once a successful businesswoman who now lives in exile in the United States.
Groups overseas who claim to speak for Uighurs are nothing more than "running dogs and pawns"
Neuter this paki source! Neuter that running dog.

https://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/22593 ... t-in-world
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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by UlanBatori »

Myanmar also got hit, but nothing unusual for them: 140,000 ppl displaced in July.
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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by UlanBatori »

BTW, look at the images. When wet and miserable, Chinese people don't look very different from people elsewhere. No super-race. No wonder they don't report the realities from Kunming. But let's see Important to know because Indian Army ppl will be asked to improve matters there soon.
Recent floods in Kunming have come with serious consequences. These include property damage on a massive scale, ruined automobiles, extensive crop damage outside the city, as well as stagnant water and its attendant health risks. There is at least one bright spot as well — some drought alleviation. Below is a sampling of what city officials and Spring City newspapers have been discussing in the aftermath of Kunming's worst flooding in years. Is the drought over? Unfortunately the most straightforward answer appears to be: 'not really'. Despite heavy rains in many of the areas that eventually drain through Kunming and into Dianchi Lake, local newspapers are still characterizing the city's water storage situation as "grim". Over the past four years, that word has become common in local media when describing water levels in the major reservoirs supplying the city with water. Following the rains this summer, storage in Kunming's seven largest reservoirs now stands at 110 million cubic meters. This figure may sound gigantic, but only represents a reported one-tenth of full capacity — underscoring just how intense the drought has been in Yunnan for more than four years. Officials are still requesting Spring City residents to do all they can to conserve water.
What can be done in the future?

Much public wringing of hands since flooding began on July 18. Some of it has been comical, such as the exhaustive historical review of Kunming flooding published by Yunnan Society.
The article, which chronicles Yunnan rain-related flooding from the Han Dynasty era until today, looks to glean lessons from the disasters of history. ..report is woefully short on helpful conclusions.

Perhaps more constructively, the city government has begun a fact-finding survey of the world's most efficient, and inefficient, sewer systems. Municipalities specifically singled out for emulation were Qingdao and its "German-built drainage system", Tokyo and London. Paris was also of special note because it has what at least one reporter has concluded is "the world's most prestigious sewer".

Provincial governor Li Jiheng (李纪恒) went on a tour of the city's more seriously damaged areas, including neighborhoods along Longquan Lu. He discussed the need for a more comprehensive disaster early warning system as well as a more extensive and effective urban drainage system. Li did not offer any details regarding such projects, but did call specifically on grass-roots organizations to come forward with any ideas. Nationally, urban planners have been quoted by Xinhua as saying water drainage systems have largely been ignored during the country's decade long construction boom. In the same article China's State Council reportedly announced that over the next decade the government would work "[...] to build a more perfect urban water drainage engineering system."

Weird flood news(Megafarts)

Workers conducting clean-up efforts in Kunming have discovered nearly 400 vehicle license plates amidst piles of garbage. Police are having trouble explaining how so many cars lost their plates in the flood. Website Yunnan Society surmises the licenses were torn off when people attempted to drive their cars through flooded streets. Similarly strange and unexplained are several explosions that occurred while much of Kunming was under water. At least nine manholes or sewer grates were reported to have exploded during flooding. Methane levels at each explosion site were elevated but firefighters on the scene explained they thought pipes clogged with copies of Global Times leading to raised water pressure were to blame."[\quote]

NOW I understand why posts on liberating Kunming from oppressive Han occupation, brought only silence from our dear Chinese experts here. :rotfl:

Here are more images from Kunming floods

Comment on one of those obviously-posed photos (look at the one showing the legs of the Gobar Times English Expert)
"It's kind of ironic that the yellow truck they are pushing has the words "Flood Prevention and Water Drainage" written on its side."
Read more: https://www.gokunming.com/en/blog/item/ ... ns_capital
Last edited by UlanBatori on 26 Aug 2017 03:05, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by Gagan »

pankajs wrote:Would you have the co-ordinates of Lanak La and Hot spring
Lanak La: One can see the road there: 34°23'39.64"N, 79°32'32.72"E

Both are related to the Oct 21, 1959 incident
Hot Springs: (? Gogra): 34°17'58.01"N, 78°57'1.98"E
Kongka-La: 34°19'43.04"N, 79° 2'31.03"E
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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by Bishwa »

https://sites.tufts.edu/gis/files/2013/ ... Daniel.pdf

Highly recommend reading this. It shows the enormous dependency of the Chinese on the Malacca Strait.

Our A&N assets and capabilities would be of serious concern to them
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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by shiv »

On the topic of floods - has anyone ever heard of floods in Tibet? I don't recall reading about floods in Tibet ever. Tibet is in the shadow of the Himalayas and clouds tend to dump rain on this side. Not much rain on the other and I guess whatever rain there is simply freezes and sits pretty as permafrost. I guess there must be some melting in summer - but floods? Don't know.
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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by shiv »

Here is a China, Tibet and Uighuristan rainfall map. Arunachal Pradesh has been marked as a part of Tibet and shows deep blue of heavy rainfall
Image
For comparison
Image
Last edited by shiv on 26 Aug 2017 07:03, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by UlanBatori »

Well.. Yunnan got bluer this year, and even north Cheen apparently got floods.
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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by brvarsh »

Saw this two western journalists discussing difference between India and China - Bring six Indians in a room and you will end up with eight ideas, often conflicting, bring six Chinese in the room and you will have one idea and only the senior most speaking about it. India knows how to live and excel around conflicts, Chinese do not. And as and when conflicts begin to surface in Chinese society what we would see is heavy handedness by the Chinese authorities - not that we haven't seen it before. Indirectly India needs to send a feeler to China that conflicts do exist and can flare up in any possible Military conflict with India.
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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by pankajs »

^
IIRC, the one who brought out the idea, 6 Indians / 8 ideas, seemed to be of Indian origin though I can't be sure. Not that it matters but it must be kept in mind that perhaps an Indian origin person was giving that bit of gyan.
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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by Dileep »

I don't know about all Indians, but us Malloos have a well defined pattern of ideation, which is extreme NIH. Being in the business of realizing ideas, I see this all the time.

If I say "maybe you should look at the AD gizmochip", I can guarantee that the design proposal will have a Maxim part in it.
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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by Philip »

IN to increase a permanent presence in the Malacca and Sunda Straits. I pointed out elsewhere that it still gets more than 50% of its oil from the MEast.
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Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by Peregrine »

Bishwa wrote:https://sites.tufts.edu/gis/files/2013/ ... Daniel.pdf

1. Highly recommend reading this. It shows the enormous dependency of the Chinese on the Malacca Strait.

Our A&N assets and capabilities would be of serious concern to them
Bishwa Ji :

This Article’s Production Date: May 2011. The map in the Right Hand Top Corner is from 2009.

I refer you to the following Article dated 15-02-2015 :

With Oil And Gas Pipelines, China Takes A Shortcut Through Myanmar - Eric Meyer

Check the Pipe Line Map.

At Present the Port of Kyaukpyu can handle VLCCs of up to 300,000 Tonnes.

Earlier ULCCs of nearly Half a Million Tonnes were plying from PG to Japan but traversed the Lambok Strait during Loaded Passage and used the Malacca Straits during the Ballast Passage.
Philip wrote:2. IN to increase a permanent presence in the Malacca and Sunda Straits. I pointed out elsewhere that it still gets more than 50% of its oil from the MEast.
Philip Ji :

There are many ways to by-pass “Blockades during Transit”.

Firstly, it is the use of Third Party Flag Ships. Then these ships will, ostensibly, carry cargoes destined for a “Third Country” and have the Documents issued accordingly. This raises the following questions :

A. China built 25 to 30 VLCCs for Iran. These Iranian tankers are “Paying the Cost of the VLCCs” by way of Iran Exporting its Oil to China. Let us say the IN Ship suspects that the vessel is carrying Oil for China. What will the IN Ship do? Is it going to Torpedo the Iranian Ship?

Think of the Pollution!

B. The VLCC of any Flag – Iranian or Otherwise – is carrying Oil with Documents stating that the Destination of the Cargo is Japan or Korea or Taiwan. Can the IN Ship even detain the VLCC? Most definitely NOT.

Gentlemen, I await your views.

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Singha
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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by Singha »

can we cross check with the Govt of japan/soko/taiwan if the cargo manifest checks out wrt to destination?

I am sure we can setup a hotline to their consulates to get this info within hours?

if proven fake we nab the rats!! detain them and redirect them to indian ports where we loot and use the oil. tell iran to stop shipping to china for the duration of war or risk getting hurt in the melee.

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we can also take a leaf from the british book by commisioning 'privateers' who will fly under their own flag of piracy and commerce raid ships bound toward cheen. they hit the spanish galleons that way.
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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by pankajs »

If we are going after Crude destined for China why wouldn't we target the port of Kyaukpyu? In this particular instance there can be no doubt on the destination of the Crude. This would be the easiest blockade to implement.

The blockade of the Malacca and other route out of IOR will not be so easy given the oil tankers ply under all kinds of flag.
Singha
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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by Singha »

^^ yes more the oil flows through myanmar or thailand easier to track and hit. even land based Urans from A&N islands will be in range.

I am sure the thai and myanmar govts will wisely shut the facilities for the duration and not bear the risk.
Bade
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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by Bade »

How many tankers ply that route, and what resources IN has to intercept each one of them, to filter out China destination ones only. Someone in the business can answer better perhaps.
pankajs
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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by pankajs »

A naval blocade is very unlikely. Going after someones SLOC far away from the area of conflict is very escalatory. Only to be thought of in an all out conflict.

Not to say that we shouldn't prepare for it. In fact we should prepare and device system / procedures to wage such a war. Total and absolute dominance of IOR should be our goal and that by itself will act as a deterrence.
Last edited by pankajs on 26 Aug 2017 17:17, edited 1 time in total.
SriKumar
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Re: Neutering & defeating Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by SriKumar »

Singha wrote:can we cross check with the Govt of japan/soko/taiwan if the cargo manifest checks out wrt to destination?

I am sure we can setup a hotline to their consulates to get this info within hours?

if proven fake we nab the rats!! detain them and redirect them to indian ports where we loot and use the oil. tell iran to stop shipping to china for the duration of war or risk getting hurt in the melee.
I think that is do-able as long as the other country cooperates. We can expect this of perhaps Japan, Taiwan, and Vietnam, Indonesia, Australia (?) but probably not so sure about NoKo/SKo and Malaysia.

On a different note, for the past 2-3 months (while pullikeshi's buffalos are still grazing in Dokalam) one could expect China to be stockpiling oil on an expedited basis, probably enough for military use for many weeks. Civilian use is about 12 million barrels per day, of which they import about half, not sure how much comes through Burma pipeline (shipping to which can be intercepted from Andaman) and overland from Russia and the many bordering *sthans. Its oil-hungry economic machine could take a hit if Malacca shipping is degraded. But methinks the difference would not be drastic or immediate. But over time (many weeks to months), it will be cumulative and could have a major effect. Shorter term shocks could probably be absorbed.
Last edited by SriKumar on 26 Aug 2017 17:21, edited 1 time in total.
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