Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 28 Aug 2017 19:01

The optics at BRICS will be excellent.

Doklam brought clarity across the board. It might be said that this was a tactical miscalculation on the part of the Chinese, probably without Beijing's knowledge or approval. When it escalated locally on India's side, New Delhi was far more "together" in its responses. In fairness, it was easier for GoI because we are not the ones who changed the status quo. China did. It was local bravado or simply ham-handedness as part of the usual changing facts on the ground routine that the PLA has been engaging in on many fronts. Once the escalation on the Indian side became clear, it required higher handling, and it was. Someone in the Western command in China is going to get his ass caned properly for sure, for embarrassing XI.

TKiran · Post by **TKiran** » 28 Aug 2017 19:03

^^^^baikul ji, +1

You said exactly what I was trying to say

samirdiw · Post by **samirdiw** » 28 Aug 2017 19:04

Baikul wrote:Given the statements issues by both sides, it is not clear to me how India has won or even managed a draw. Optics may not always reflect reality but they sure as hell paint a picture. How about the MEA issues another statement emphatically rejecting what China is so bluntly claiming?

Incidentally, when even committed defenders like Rakshaks have to generate nuanced statements to prove a win, IMO you have already lost.

Now we (BR's, general public, armed forces, govt) can be content and go back to bitching about the Pakistanis.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 28 Aug 2017 19:10

bharat karnad is not happy about this for sure

https://bharatkarnad.com/2017/08/28/los ... at-dok-la/

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 28 Aug 2017 19:12

Peregrine wrote:

Inquiring minds would like to know wtf is the dotted line on the map if Doklam is Chinese tellitoly?

RajeshA · Post by **RajeshA** » 28 Aug 2017 19:16

As far as Chinese hurling insults are concerned, that is mostly a sign of someone playing a weak hand, trying to compensate lack of balls or strength with lots of substandard verbosity.

During this whole standoff, I've felt that China has been behaving as someone whose little finger has been twisted and is crying out in pain. That English-speaking woman from Xinhua video squealing on Indian fault of stopping China from building roads in its own territory comes to mind.

In all this GoI has shown steel. The more one talks, the weaker one looks, because it is the weaker party which talks morality.

What this incident has shown me, is that as long as India is willing to provide China with a face-saver, India can go ahead and force China to head to our interests.

There is an immense pressure on authoritarian regimes to show no loss of face, because anybody who causes this really puts the whole political edifice of the regime at risk, and brings out the vultures in the regime out to overthrow the chief. That is the weak-spot of these regimes. These regimes stand because of their claim of making nation strong and not because of any democratic legitimacy. If the chief cannot keep up that pretense, his head rolls.

We have to start boiling the lizard in water first slowly and gradually increasing the temperature, always politely coaxing the lizard to accept the higher temperature.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 28 Aug 2017 19:22

They can patrol all they want and show banners that say
"Please go back. U are in our land".
And IA will show banner that says:

你是丑陋的和您的门马连衣裙你丑

and everyone happily goes back to enjoying laddoos and jilebi and stir-fried ratsnake as usual.

ManishC · Post by **ManishC** » 28 Aug 2017 19:23

What Army clawed back in Doklam, PMO/MEA has lost. Another Hiji Pir brilliance just to smile foolishly with Xi.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 28 Aug 2017 19:23

eklavya wrote:
JE Menon wrote:https://twitter.com/MEAIndia/status/902148971136655360

Further explanation from the MEA

One is tempted to put a grinning smiley out there. There is enough in the tone and content of this for all to be satisfied within reason.
Thank you for posting that.

"disengagement of border personnel of India and China" "almost completed under verification"

"understanding reached on boundary issues must be scrupulously respected"

In other words:

1. Chinese troops also pulling out under verification

2. Status quo to be maintained (which is the "understanding") i.e. no road building in disputed areas

3. Chinese missed a great opportunity to shut up, and 11 GinPegs returning home without his undies is unfortunately now a public fact

That is the key. What was the understanding reached between China/Bhutan and China/India before this standoff started?

Folks who want to know need to go back to the 2 statements put out by our MEA and 2 put out by Bhutan after the standoff started. That is clear enough but people want to put in their own spin.

Folks are entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 28 Aug 2017 19:24

ManishC wrote:What Army clawed back in Doklam, PMO/MEA has lost. Another Hiji Pir brilliance just to smile foolishly with Xi.

O brother!

Arjun · Post by **Arjun** » 28 Aug 2017 19:25

Singha wrote:bharat karnad is not happy about this for sure

https://bharatkarnad.com/2017/08/28/los ... at-dok-la/

I agree with him. In the absence of a definitive statement from India or Bhutan regarding the road construction, India will have lost the war of perceptions. This really does raise serious questions on this government's ability to manage a battle of perceptions in any sphere, not just this one. The simply don't seem to have the required intellectual firepower.

It was a very big thing for the Indian army to reduce the “mighty” PLA — or that’s the self-pumped up image Beijing likes to project to the world — to school-boyish pushing and shoving and throwing stones, and fulminating in the media, which about is the most the PLA could do in the circumstances it found itself in. MEA/Delhi have lost in the perceptions realm what a resolute army won in Dok La.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 28 Aug 2017 19:26

anupmisra wrote:The chini statement is for home consumption as we all know. It is framed for the masses that do not have the freedom to access the Internet. The chini statement is not far from the facts. But it is only half the truth. Focus on what was not said.

Absolutely and read it with the release out out by MEA that JEM saar linked to.

JE Menon · Post by **JE Menon** » 28 Aug 2017 19:28

One way of looking at it is that it is a 1962 lite. They came into our territory and withdrew. Here we did the same on a smaller scale, but on behalf of a third party - which is worse in a sense.

prasannasimha · Post by **prasannasimha** » 28 Aug 2017 19:29

Every objective was achieved by India. It showed it is no pushover. Now no one will pay hard to Chinese Masala rhetoric. They are now trying to preserve H&D but at the end they did not get what they wanted to achieve. We of course have to be prepared for other incursions but their bluff has been called which is an international loss of H&D with people laughing at their stone throwing attempts.

TKiran · Post by **TKiran** » 28 Aug 2017 19:30

UlanBatori wrote:
ManishC wrote:What Army clawed back in Doklam, PMO/MEA has lost. Another Hiji Pir brilliance just to smile foolishly with Xi.
O brother!

Brilliant ManishC, but bhakts will twist as Chankian move by Modi/Doval.

kapilrdave · Post by **kapilrdave** » 28 Aug 2017 19:44

RajeshA wrote:As far as Chinese hurling insults are concerned, that is mostly a sign of someone playing a weak hand, trying to compensate lack of balls or strength with lots of substandard verbosity.

During this whole standoff, I've felt that China has been behaving as someone whose little finger has been twisted and is crying out in pain. That English-speaking woman from Xinhua video squealing on Indian fault of stopping China from building roads in its own territory comes to mind.

In all this GoI has shown steel. The more one talks, the weaker one looks, because it is the weaker party which talks morality.

What this incident has shown me, is that as long as India is willing to provide China with a face-saver, India can go ahead and force China to head to our interests.

There is an immense pressure on authoritarian regimes to show no loss of face, because anybody who causes this really puts the whole political edifice of the regime at risk, and brings out the vultures in the regime out to overthrow the chief. That is the weak-spot of these regimes. These regimes stand because of their claim of making nation strong and not because of any democratic legitimacy. If the chief cannot keep up that pretense, his head rolls.

We have to start boiling the lizard in water first slowly and gradually increasing the temperature, always politely coaxing the lizard to accept the higher temperature.

Good point. If chinese are happy to concede their territory on ground as long as we are giving them face saving, then no harm giving them that. This is our first experience of the sort. We should get bolder and probe other areas next time and try to capture some strategic land, and see their reaction. They don't seem to be too interested in fighting afterall

.

One thing is for sure. As their economy slows CCP will need more and more face saving while we will be getting stronger and stronger by day. We should probe them more and more

!

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 28 Aug 2017 19:45

pankajs wrote:
eklavya wrote:
Thank you for posting that.

"disengagement of border personnel of India and China" "almost completed under verification"

"understanding reached on boundary issues must be scrupulously respected"

In other words:

1. Chinese troops also pulling out under verification

2. Status quo to be maintained (which is the "understanding") i.e. no road building in disputed areas

3. Chinese missed a great opportunity to shut up, and 11 GinPegs returning home without his undies is unfortunately now a public fact
That is the key. What was the understanding reached between China/Bhutan and China/India before this standoff started?

Folks who want to know need to go back to the 2 statements put out by our MEA and 2 put out by Bhutan after the standoff started. That is clear enough but people want to put in their own spin.

Folks are entitled to their own opinion, but not their own facts.

Woops ... forgot to point out one important thing. The exact MEA statement is "Agreements and understanding reached on boundary issues must be scrupulously respected"

Prior Agreements were pointed out by India and Bhutan in their previous statements. That is what I was referring to in my comments. This release needs to be read with those 2 statements issues by each India and Bhutan.

TKiran · Post by **TKiran** » 28 Aug 2017 19:50

kapilrdave wrote: Good point. If chinese are happy to concede their territory on ground as long as we are giving them face saving, then no harm giving them that. This is our first experience of the sort. We should get bolder and probe other areas next time and try to capture some strategic land, and see their reaction. They don't seem to be too interested in fighting afterall .

One thing is for sure. As their economy slows CCP will need more and more face saving while we will be getting stronger and stronger by day. We should probe them more and more !

There are only two areas strategic, 1. Doka Lam which we just lost. 2. Tawang, which we will lose by our brilliant diplomats, even if our army clings to it.

VishalJ · Post by **VishalJ** » 28 Aug 2017 19:55

kapilrdave · Post by **kapilrdave** » 28 Aug 2017 19:57

TKiran wrote:
kapilrdave wrote: Good point. If chinese are happy to concede their territory on ground as long as we are giving them face saving, then no harm giving them that. This is our first experience of the sort. We should get bolder and probe other areas next time and try to capture some strategic land, and see their reaction. They don't seem to be too interested in fighting afterall .

One thing is for sure. As their economy slows CCP will need more and more face saving while we will be getting stronger and stronger by day. We should probe them more and more !
There are only two areas strategic, 1. Doka Lam which we just lost. 2. Tawang

Any winnable or encroachable land is strategic!

The land that is not perceived by the enemy as strategic is even more strategic!

Remember "not a blade of grass grows...", coco island?
It doesn't matter how the land is won. Who controls it is what matters afterall.

Time to turn the table... slowly... smartly... wickedly...

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 28 Aug 2017 19:59

TKiran wrote:
kapilrdave wrote: Good point. If chinese are happy to concede their territory on ground as long as we are giving them face saving, then no harm giving them that. This is our first experience of the sort. We should get bolder and probe other areas next time and try to capture some strategic land, and see their reaction. They don't seem to be too interested in fighting afterall .

One thing is for sure. As their economy slows CCP will need more and more face saving while we will be getting stronger and stronger by day. We should probe them more and more !
There are only two areas strategic, 1. Doka Lam which we just lost. 2. Tawang, which we will lose by our brilliant diplomats, even if our army clings to it.

The only battle India has lost is of perception and I believe that might be to allow China to save face. China lost a lot in the last 3 months. Everyone of their neighbors is baying for blood after India stood ground.
There a reason why China's puppet media quickly deleted it's tweet. We did fine.

JwalaMukhi · Post by **JwalaMukhi** » 28 Aug 2017 20:01

The Indian Army has the capability to take care and is more than a match to challenges across the border. Need to watch the paid commies/Naxal brigades inside India to see if any of such deep assets gained something really tangible. Without contaminating the thread with politics, it needs to be seen if some critical internal domestic dirty game is set with adverse consequence. The game has become dirty and it will become openly more so. The sleeper assets in positions of power inside India are forced to show their hands to achieve their objectives.
Will have to watch the squealing or lack thereof of the Naxal Press and other usual china assets. It takes sometime for the cheques from the Central Party to reach.

sanjayc · Post by **sanjayc** » 28 Aug 2017 20:06

India prevailed. Indian silence is deliberate to provide a face saver to China. India's quiet firmness in standing up to China and not giving an inch has been noticed by other countries in China's neighborhood.

Chandragupta · Post by **Chandragupta** » 28 Aug 2017 20:10

Simple pooch - why is saving China's face so important to Modi? Will any of India's neighbours give two hoots about saving India's face?

sanjayc · Post by **sanjayc** » 28 Aug 2017 20:13

H&D is important to China. Making China lose face will force its hand to take military action even with heavy casualties. Modi was smart in this when it allowed China to withdraw while claiming there were no concessions from its side. It is a win win for India actually. China learnt a lesson that its bluff will be called by India when required. Other countries are not fools -- they noticed what exactly happened on the border. China is the loser actually. Their aggression on the border will be gone from now on. It is a massive blow to the superior attitude against Indian army that Chinese were having since 1962. It is a paradigm shift. As Bruce Lee said, the best fighting style is to fight without fighting. India won without firing a bullet

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 28 Aug 2017 20:13

sanjayc wrote:India prevailed. Indian silence is deliberate to provide a face saver to China. India's quiet firmness in standing up to China and not giving an inch has been noticed by other countries in China's neighborhood.

Exactly - Media in India has to lay low. China must save face. China would have had a major coup if there was a confrontation. Sometimes, it is OK to pretend to compromise to accomplish greater objectives. This is a classic case of Modi's Nishkam karma where he could sing for credit but is laying low for larger benefit for the nation. He is truly a great leader.

Suresh S · Post by **Suresh S** » 28 Aug 2017 20:14

Indian win on points . As Philip rightly said any delay is in our favor.Nationalistic govt at center, we get time to prepare for the coming war.A war 5 yrs out with shitistan hugely favors India. A war with chinkis 10-15 yrs out will favor India.Preparation for war must continue as they have been over the last few months only put the foot on the accelerator as much as the engine will take.On the political front Modi has put eleven in the dog house.

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 28 Aug 2017 20:15

Suresh S wrote:Indian win on points . As Philip rightly said any delay is in our favor.Nationalistic govt at center, we get time to prepare for the coming war.A war 5 yrs out with shitistan hugely favors India. A war with chinkis 10-15 yrs out will favor India.Preparation for war must continue as they have been over the last few months only put the foot on the accelerator as much as the engine will take.On the political front Modi has put eleven in the dog house.

Real victory is to win without a war. Do not expect Modi to be a war jingo to score brownie points. This individual is capable of great sacrifice for greater outcomes.

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 28 Aug 2017 20:16

TKiran wrote:Brilliant ManishC, but bhakts will twist as Chankian move by Modi/Doval.

TKiran, by no stretch of imagination am I a 'bhakt', whatever that may mean. But, I have a very different opinion on this denouement.

China will claim anything, as is its wont. Why should we believe that?

Iyersan · Post by **Iyersan** » 28 Aug 2017 20:22

Folks why are we debating. GOI statement is a mature and firm one. Modi and Doval will only act in India interest. BTW war is coming. Grinding my axe and keeping it ready to behead the PLA.

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 28 Aug 2017 20:23

Iyersan wrote:Folks why are we debating. GOI statement is a mature and firm one. Modi and Doval will only act in India interest. BTW war is coming. Grinding my axe and keeping it ready to behead the PLA.

It could be a different kind of war. Just wait and watch.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 28 Aug 2017 20:26

So let me put it in terms that UBCN's readership will understand.
I am owning a big house onlee. Next to my property is this barren triangular strip of land, between two smaller houses. I am owning a big dog that can bark loud enough to be heard in the next subdivision. I am also known to come home drunk every Fridin evening and beat up my children, yelling at them:

Son of a dog!!

So my neighbors are somewhat wary of me and my dog. Although I am known as the greatest trader and always smiling and wearing nice clothes, they are not sure what to believe about me or my dog.
Next to the two small houses, lives another big trader, though he is not nearly as rich as I am. He also owns a dog, which mostly does not bark.

My dog regularly pees all round that property. Neighbors don't come out when he is p-ing. Other trader's dog looks over the fence from their property, but rarely does anything.

But I happen to know that the trader home has this beautiful goat. My dog wants to look over the fence and see that goat so he can (never mind, let's just say that my dog has "enlarged veins"). So one day I build him a ramp, so that my dog can climb on that and look over the fence.

My smaller neighbor objected. Their poodle came out and barked at my dog. My dog pushed the poodle away and barked very loudly, so the poodle ran off with tail between legs. My dog then proceeded to push the ramp with his paws, closer to the tall fence.

Suddenly, my trader neighbor's silent dog came bounding down from the side fence, growled at my dog, and chewed the ramp to pieces and spat it out. My dog retreated, yelping. The Silent Dog just stood there, inside MY LAND (!!) baring his teeth. My dog was very afraid.

I got very mad at the other trader (anyway he has become a pesky competitor, always in my way even at the village jirga). I threatened to get my shotgun and shoot his dog. But I saw that he had 3 shotguns pointing out from behind the fence.

So we all sat there growling.

Eventually, I decided to give up on letting my dog peek over the fence. No ramp. No peeking at Ayesha the Goat.

I pulled my dog back. The Silent dog went back inside his fence.

The trader just went about his business. His dog pees inside their fence (OK, sometime comes over and pees on MY land when my dog is not looking).

Then I declared Victory:

MY DOG CAN STILL PEE ON MY LAND!!

JwalaMukhi · Post by **JwalaMukhi** » 28 Aug 2017 20:30

War is already in place. The strategy has shifted. Brute force military exchange and full blown war is extremely expensive and the chinese have realized.
But war by other means will continue. A nation that has transferred "newclear" assets to porkistan, is expected to not have change of heart in a hurry.
What they realized is the escalation of the cost of war is no longer linear, it is going to be exponential.
Hope, India doesn't let its guard down because of "peace" due to mutual withdrawal or whatever. War by other means will escalate. Boycott of chinese maal, and other things needs to go full court press. China can only be good, when they are not India's neighbour. Tibet is natural and true neighbour of India. Till that happens expect no good will from the chinese.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 28 Aug 2017 20:32

the time has come to suggest that all get behind the GOI and stop this usual argumentive indian raucous 'speaking in many voices'

either stand behind the flag or leave - shitting on the GOI on such a important matter is not good.

we can do our bit by making sure oppo , xiaomi and vivo lose their panties here and withdraw in shame.

chola · Post by **chola** » 28 Aug 2017 20:37

Suresh S wrote:Indian win on points . As Philip rightly said any delay is in our favor.Nationalistic govt at center, we get time to prepare for the coming war.A war 5 yrs out with shitistan hugely favors India. A war with chinkis 10-15 yrs out will favor India.Preparation for war must continue as they have been over the last few months only put the foot on the accelerator as much as the engine will take.On the political front Modi has put eleven in the dog house.

A war with Cheen NOW favors India. In 15 years, who the hell knows what would happen.

In 15 years, we could be surrounded by chini bases resulting from OBOR. In 15 years, they would have carriers in the IOR. In 15 years, they might actually build up their forces in Tibet compared to the weak crap they have there today.

We have a guaranteed victory staring us in the face right now but we're giving it up for better positioning in the future? No, I have no hope we will fight in the future either because we'll be waiting always be waiting for the SYRE first move that'll never come.

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 28 Aug 2017 20:39

chola wrote:
Suresh S wrote:Indian win on points . As Philip rightly said any delay is in our favor.Nationalistic govt at center, we get time to prepare for the coming war.A war 5 yrs out with shitistan hugely favors India. A war with chinkis 10-15 yrs out will favor India.Preparation for war must continue as they have been over the last few months only put the foot on the accelerator as much as the engine will take.On the political front Modi has put eleven in the dog house.
A war with Cheen NOW favors India. In 15 years, who the hell knows what would happen.

In 15 years, we could be surrounded by chini bases resulting from OBOR. In 15 years, they would have carriers in the IOR. In 15 years, they might actually build up their forces in Tibet compared to the weak crap they have there today.

We have a guaranteed victory staring us in the face right now but we're giving it up for better positioning in the future? No, I have no hope we will fight in the future either because we'll be waiting always be waiting for the SYRE first move that'll never come.

In 15 years will China even exist in present form. We will see

SSridhar · Post by **SSridhar** » 28 Aug 2017 20:46

A few things to note:

The stand-off was resolved before Modi's visit for BRICS
The stand-off got resolved before the 19th Congress of the CPC
China claims that it will continue to 'patrol' this area
China claims that Indian troops have been pulled out from the border
China is "pleased" that Indian troops have withdrawn from Doklam

Let us look at each point above.

We have to remember that in 2014, Xi Jinping's India visit happened with a stand-off with intrusion by PLA. The PLA did not withdraw and the stand-off continued through the state visit of the Chinese President with a tense situation on the border. Xi Jinping's visit was marred by the twin intrusions of Chumar & Depsang. So, I do not believe that Modi would have somehow wanted to resolve the stand-off in order to have a smooth BRICS. The incumbent government is known to retaliate in kind. Even the Man Mohan Singh government had done so earlier.

It is my belief that the PLA is not completely within Xi's control. Immediately after his return to Beijing after the India visit, Xi Jinping addressed the PLA and exhorted them to be prepared for a regional war and be victorious in that. He said, “Headquarters of all PLA forces should improve their combat readiness and sharpen their ability to win a regional war in the age of information technology. Headquarters of PLA forces must have absolute loyalty and firm faith in the Communist Party of China, guarantee a smooth chain of command and make sure all decisions from the central leadership are fully implemented”. Immediately thereafter, General Fang Fenghui, PLA chief, said in a statement that all PLA forces follow the instructions of President Xi. Some interpreted these twin statements to mean that President Xi was unhappy that his instructions to the PLA to stand-off at the LAC were not obeyed. There are a few reasons to believe in such a conclusion.

That would explain the rest of the points.

China, of course, cannot be seen to have stood down even if it was a mutual withdrawal. In Chinese culture, it would amount to loss of face. Moreover, no Chinese leader can compromise on their unilateral claim over territories because they would otherwise risk their lives in view of the Anti-Secession Law of 2005. It is a capital offence to agree to a compromise on perceived Chinese sovereignty. So, they will have to claim what they claim.

But, I believe that the present crisis could also have been something similar to the twin crisis of c. 2014 with an out-of-control PLA escalating the situation. Points 2,3,4 & 5 follow such a proposition as it takes time for Xi, the Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces, to effectively control his renegade forces. The Chinese Government also has to save the face of the PLA even if it was disloyal & runaway.

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 28 Aug 2017 20:50

A nice ambiguous statement by Xinhua
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017- ... 562890.htm
BEIJING, Aug. 28 (Xinhua) -- The Chinese military will remain vigilant and firmly defend national territory and sovereignty following a military stand-off between China and India, a military spokesperson said Monday.
"Peace and stability along China-India border concerns regional peace and stability and accords with the common interests of the two peoples," said Wu Qian, spokesperson for the Ministry of National Defense.
India has withdrawn its personnel and equipment from Dong Lang (Doklam) after the stand-off that lasted more than two months.
"We remind India to draw lessons from the stand-off, abide by established treaties and the basic principles of international law, and work together with China to safeguard peace and stability along the border and promote the healthy development of the two militaries," he said.
The spokesperson said that the Chinese military is confident and capable of safeguarding national sovereignty, safety and the interests of development. It is also confident and capable of making a bigger contribution to world peace.
KEY WORDS:India

Narad · Post by **Narad** » 28 Aug 2017 20:56

Chandragupta wrote:Simple pooch - why is saving China's face so important to Modi? Will any of India's neighbours give two hoots about saving India's face?

It could be that NSG and massod azhar deal could have been sealed. We will have to wait till next plenary of NSG meet.

samirdiw · Post by **samirdiw** » 28 Aug 2017 20:58

So now they will patrol all the way to Gipmochi?