Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

[Iyersan]

WHAT abt the Chinese embassy sutiyapa? Sending alert warning for its citizens. Watch out whether it is removed. Cuz if it ain't, the game is ON...

[rajpa]

There is no road.

--Finis

[pankajs]

American / Russian sats would be monitoring the Doklam area for activity and the remaining can get confirmation from Bhutan.

The thing folks wanted Xi to explicitly spell out the terms of compromise surrender but that was not going to happen anyhow. No Chinese president can survive that kind of a debacle. While there is only one party system in China its internal politics is as vicious or more than Indian politics. One just has to recall how the slate is cleaned after a new president take control.

The other option for Xi was war if he had any hopes of saving his seat and perhaps life. And all this without the 2005 law that SS saar has referred to. That makes it impossible for a president to compromise and survive. Modi too wouldn't have wanted a conflict at this time no matter what the outcome. India got its deal while still allowing for a face saver for the Chinese. I believe, as I havev stated before, the initial few statements were co-ordinated to get the wording correct much like in joint statements.

In itself the deal was good but future will tell if we won anything else for the face saver but we must keep low expectation on that count.

[UlanBatori]

The stand-off was resolved before Modi's visit for BRICS

Correct. No Chinese road south towards Indian ChickenNeck border in Doklam.
Mission Accomplished!
Congratulations and all admiration to the brave soldiers of the Indian Army who literally put their bodies in front of the Chinese PLA and forced them to stop their nefarious activities.

That it got done before the snows came, is the major accomplishment of the govt. Clearly the BRICS played an important part there. Imagine B,R coming there and snickering:
Did u c that WTP cartoon, Comrade? Hilarious, these paper tigers of chinese communist party!

[SSridhar]

Simple pooch - why is saving China's face so important to Modi? Will any of India's neighbours give two hoots about saving India's face?

I do not think GoI is saving China's face. It is trying to save itself, by lying as usual.

It could be that NSG and massod azhar deal could have been sealed. We will have to wait till next plenary of NSG meet.

I do not think China would give up on NSG or Masood Azhar or Pakistan. They are entirely different from Doka La.

[pankajs]

So now they will patrol all the way to Gipmochi?

I believe they will mostly keep till the Indian Doka La post but foot patrols can go further. The road ends just about 200-400 feets form Doka La.

[TKiran]

Brilliant ManishC, but bhakts will twist as Chankian move by Modi/Doval.

TKiran, by no stretch of imagination am I a 'bhakt', whatever that may mean. But, I have a very different opinion on this denouement.

China will claim anything, as is its wont. Why should we believe that?

SS sir, my only anguish is that, there was no scope for PMO/North Block to intervene in this situation.

Let me explain, the Han calculation was that, to secure Lhasa (in turn Tibet and quing imperial China) there are only two areas strategic, 1 Doklam 2 Tawang, if they can deny India these two places, Lhasa is secured.

They don't care for other areas, as even if Indian Army captured other areas, as long as Lhasa is secured, Tibet still would remain with Hans.

So it's a genuine concern of PLA, to deny India these two strategic places, as any other circuitus route IA would take to reach Lhasa can be reversed easily, as long as Lhasa is with them.

India should not have gone to Doka Lam, as it was not Indian territory. When Bipin Rawat asked for permission to enter Bhutan territory with PMO, they should have denied such permission. But once he is given such permission, come what may, we should cling on, and make diplomacy around the changed Reality and support the military manuvre come what may.

Their words that we will not build roads should not be given any consideration, even if Eleven given it in writing to India or even to UN for that matter.

It's like Bhutto telling Indira that they will not enter Kashmir and will not ask for third party mediation. you believe their words and you are doomed.

ManishC has put beautifully, just for smile with Eleven, you give a face saver, it's total naieve.

They will construct roads in Doka Lam, we will not be able to do anything about it.

Now tell me what is that India gained that we gave up a military stand-off in diplomacy? What for?

[rajpa]

So now they will patrol all the way to Gipmochi?

I believe they will mostly keep till the Indian Doka La post but foot patrols can go further. The road ends just about 200-400 feets form Doka La.

They may patrol as much as they like and pelt with stones when slapped on their faces but they will build no road or make any inroads. Indian Army seals all the 11 chinese holes shut. Guys enough of arguing over this.

[pankajs]

They will construct roads in Doka Lam, we will not be able to do anything about it.

I don't know saar which world you live in and what is your source for news but we just stopped them from extending the road a few months back. At least on that point there is no dispute.

What makes you believe that what played out last 2-3 months will not happen again?

[JwalaMukhi]

The most tangible outcome so far from Indian side is:
1) The babucracy has atleast been if not permanently cleaned of Nirupama Rao-esque's stupidity.
2) Chinese had to spin million tales to get out of the spot they got into in the first place.

The first one is very important. Because external enemies are easily taken care of, when intent is clear and unambiguous. This is the most toughest job, as Nehruvian school of thought was very much in vogue inside the babucracy. Cleaning the stables and retaining only permanent unabashed Indian Interests is a must in the babucracy.
The easiest thing for GOI is to win a military confrontation. Army has been exemplary and will deliver with whatever it has at its disposal when the nation is behind it. The toughest part for GOI, is to clean the internal stables and to throw the entire nation behind the Armed forces.

[prasannasimha]

^^ The precondition from India was that they ahd to withdraw all construction activities. Bull dozers etc for making the road have been withdrawn and monitoring is still going on.

[Iyersan]

What goes to say a military confrontation may not happen post Eleven congress is over Cee Pee Cee. When he becomes maharaj XI he might think of spanking Modi.... war is coming my friends....

[schinnas]

Of all the Indian media WION news got it right. They interviewed all the right people from N.D Nalapat to Brahma Challaney and rightly called it as a big diplomatic victory for India and a severe loss of face and loss of credibility by Chinese in South Asia.

All the experts interviewed were unanimous that GoI has handled it very well and that China is the loser. The second statement or clarification by MEA puts everything in perspective in nice diplomatese.

OT: WION news can evolve as India's Al Jazeera in due course. The fish market that is Republic TV cannot hold a candle.

[pankajs]

My guess is the sequencing is important. I think it went something like ...

1. China pulls out its construction equipment from the area. Verified by Indians. Finished
2. Indian troops pulls back to Doka La but stand ready to run down at the first hint of mischief. Verified by the Chinese. In process when the statement was released. Should be over by now.
3. Chinese troops pull back beyond the region. Verified by Indians. In process right now.

[Y I Patel]

India's stated objective going into this was to stop the construction of the road. The unstated objectives were (a) prevent the Chinese from creating new facts on the ground that would strengthen their bargaining position vis a vis Bhutan, and (b) Stop Bhutan's double dealing in this charade where they looked like they were engaging with the Chinese to negotiate away Dokalam in exchange of billions of dollars in "aid".

The Chinese aim, was to first create this fact on the ground (in which they were tacitly abetted by the Bhutanese), and to then use the fact on the ground to wrest Dokalam in a territory swap with Bhutan.

Now the only facts on the ground created by Chinese patrols in this area will be number 1 and number 2. Furthermore, without any need for any overt pressure, Bhutan gets the message to toe India's line or risk getting shoved aside (very politely and diplomatically, of course).

India won. China lost. And make no mistake, India did this without any help from anyone. Do not let apologists for any other power spin this otherwise. Diplomatic statements are always built to provide a graceful outcome for all parties while at the same time couching the real outcomes in unmistakable terms for perpetuity. Look at how India will be able to use this particular statement in perpetuity: do not even think about negotiating over Dokalam without involving India. All the rest is diplomatic cover.

[UlanBatori]

Main feature of this bissing contest is that Indian Govt simply did not open mouths, while IA BROKE UP A CHINESE ROAD WITH BULLDOZERS, stared them down for a month and half, and even Indo-Tibetan polis beat the cr*** out of their Elite Forces when they tried a sneak attack. And released the video from a high point of the PLA running and huddling, clearly showing that their sneak attack had been anticipated. Altogether on both occasions China seen to be encroachers/intruders/treacherous sh1ts. And incompetent. In the end, Indians told them, you can't build no road here, and they meekly withdrew, tails between their enlarged-vein golas.

[Iyersan]

Main feature of this bissing contest is that Indian Govt simply did not open mouths, while IA BROKE UP A CHINESE ROAD WITH BULLDOZERS, stared them down for a month and half, and even Indo-Tibetan polis beat the cr*** out of their Elite Forces when they tried a sneak attack. And released the video from a high point of the PLA running and huddling, clearly showing that their sneak attack had been anticipated. Altogether on both occasions China seen to be encroachers/intruders/treacherous sh1ts. And incompetent. In the end, Indians told them, you can't build no road here, and they meekly withdrew, tails between their enlarged-vein golas.

The PLA will be smarting at this debacle... just as COAS said yesterday... India has to be very vigilant on other doklam's

[Y I Patel]

I just thought of an alarming possibility - what if the Chinese start patrolling Dokalam with Bentleys

[Iyersan]

Both sides will claim victory at Doklam - but if Chinese road building has ceased, then India has won this round
Tweet by @rory_medcalf

[AdityaM]

Simple pooch - why is saving China's face so important to Modi? Will any of India's neighbours give two hoots about saving India's face?

I do not think GoI is saving China's face. It is trying to save itself, by lying as usual.

It could be that NSG and massod azhar deal could have been sealed. We will have to wait till next plenary of NSG meet.

I do not think China would give up on NSG or Masood Azhar or Pakistan. They are entirely different from Doka La.

Anyone in hope of a deal for favourable Chinese move on Azhar & NSG is saying :
India is withdrawing today, in the hope for a Chinese tango in the future.

It ain't going to happen. Once you show all your cards, then pack your cards and leave the table, no opponent will pay you a winning at a later date.
There is no reason for china to favour Indian position, in fact it is going to be all the more intransigent in its approach.

Once India leaves the area, what stops china to restart the road building next year after ensuring that the Bhutanese don't go to India but rather look the other way.



Everytime India & Pakistan clash over issues, their deep state agents in media/politics/civil-society start propoganda to immediately undercut Indian position & propogate Paki POV.

Can people start collating examples of Chinese deep state sympathisers who revealed themselves.
Did voices pushing the Chinese agenda make their way to the media?
Other than that one news magazine article about Bhutan

[Arjun]

Both sides will claim victory at Doklam - but if Chinese road building has ceased, then India has won this round
Tweet by @rory_medcalf

Exactly ! The perceptions will be tied to what actually happens with the road building.

[pankajs]

Both sides will claim victory at Doklam - but if Chinese road building has ceased, then India has won this round
Tweet by @rory_medcalf

The folks who follow such matters know what to focus on ignoring of all the rhetoric. That is the best criteria to judge who came out tops.

[nam]

India won the battle of perception when it stood firmly ALONE for 2 months of ranting and threats by chinos.

People who understand the importance of this are not going to swayed by missing words in mea's GMAT English test examples.

Is someone saying our statement is bad at perception than "shake the mountain" rant.

[shiv]

India (officially) is not claiming victory. China will say what its beepals want to hear. But if they talk too much about "victory" India will blandly blurt out some truths. Knowing that - China will not go beyond a point

[yensoy]

Once India leaves the area, what stops china to restart the road building next year after ensuring that the Bhutanese don't go to India but rather look the other way.

Bhutan is a sideshow. They will say as they are instructed in matters of strategic interest to us.

Folks have argued that what's to stop China from rebuilding the road next year, and to that we have 2 counters:
1. We will continue to be vigilant to developments and can easily cross over to Doklam if Chinese re-start their efforts
2. We have probably dug up the area and laced it with landmines for good measure. Not sure, just a guess.

HOWEVER, this time we got lucky because the road passed by a few hundred meters of our border posts so we were easily able to mobilize. What if their next attempt is at a safer distance to the East, where we cannot reach with ease? That bothers me.

[pankajs]

Actually MEA statement covers all the bases just that it is not in your face on articulation. The reference to "Agreements ... must be scrupulously respected" is clear enough if one takes the time to go back and read the prior 2 releases on the subject.

[KLNMurthy]

In recent weeks, India and China have maintained diplomatic communication in respect of the incident at Doklam. During these communications, we were able to express our views and convey our concerns and interests. On this basis, expeditious disengagement of border personnel at the face-off site in Doklam has been agreed-to and is ongoing,

MEA statement clearly states that agreement is on the basis of our concerns and interests, which clearly means that our concerns and interest have been taken care of in the agreement.

Not at all. It is carefully parsed language which only says the concerns etc. have been "conveyed." IOW Chinese gave us a hearing, that's all.

[KLNMurthy]

“China will continue to exercise sovereignty rights to protect territorial sovereignty in accordance with the rules of the historical boundary,” she said.

Is China claiming the territory and India has conceded? If so, this is a abject surrender.

Seems that way for sure.

[pankajs]

Folks really need to open google map in 3D and start towards Doklam from Chumbi valley to understand what the terrain is like.

Just try figuring out a route to the Indian post at Doka La starting from their main base.

[Jarita]

India (officially) is not claiming victory. China will say what its beepals want to hear. But if they talk too much about "victory" India will blandly blurt out some truths. Knowing that - China will not go beyond a point

And that is the deal

[pankajs]

India (officially) is not claiming victory. China will say what its beepals want to hear. But if they talk too much about "victory" India will blandly blurt out some truths. Knowing that - China will not go beyond a point

What happened last time about the alleged pullout by India was classic. The Chinese folded so fast it was unbelievable! I though they would continue to thump the table for at least a few more days but no.

[shiv]

HOWEVER, this time we got lucky because the road passed by a few hundred meters of our border posts so we were easily able to mobilize. What if their next attempt is at a safer distance to the East, where we cannot reach with ease? That bothers me.

This idea comes from the impression that Indian soldiers are NOT patrolling the plateau but are sitting on cold mountain with thumbs in warm musharraf watching Chinese strolling about

[amohan2001]

India (officially) is not claiming victory. China will say what its beepals want to hear. But if they talk too much about "victory" India will blandly blurt out some truths. Knowing that - China will not go beyond a point

and If China goes beyond a point, India can go in with bulldozers again.

[shiv]

Throughout the issue China maintained that they were on their own territory when they knew damn well what had happened. They do this time and time again and they are meeting resistance for the first time in the Himalayan region. They know their red lines or their eastern sea coast when it comes to Japan or Amreeka

[sanjaykumar]

Words of friendly advice from a Round Eyes to China.


”It would be a strategic disaster for China to make a mortal enemy out of India,” said Daniel C. Lynch, a professor of Asian and international studies at the City University of Hong Kong. “The last thing an aging, economically less vibrant China needs is to fall into a generations-long cold war with India.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/28/worl ... rawal.html

[Marten]

The Indian post is less than 300 meters away. The Chinese path (that used to be a road until BRO did a BBMP on them) to their post is 5-8km?
Who would the average lay person (non BR Tier 1 member, of course) think about the victor in this case?

[shiv]

There remains the possibility that China will fill some area with crack troops and then try a similar thing. But by now they should know that it will mean war. A little titbit which I kept silent about for 2 months. Every year we have wailed and cried about lack of test flying during the monsoon in Bangalore, to the extent that someone suggested that if weather is a problem they should shift the testing somewhere else. But that is only for testing. Ever since Doklam erupted there has been intense fighter activity every single day. I think the Chinese have a right to know that India is not going to sit on its musharraf if they do gaandmasti.

[KLNMurthy]

We asked for getting back to status quo and we got the status quo. Chinis try to extend the road, our troops will block them again, NOT just in Dolam. We now know the volume of hot air in pla's mountain.
...

It's fine to put a brave face on it, but just repeating the same thing "next time" is not a good option in real life. Other party will be learning lessons and I can guarantee that it won't be to stop needling India.

[Iyersan]

We asked for getting back to status quo and we got the status quo. Chinis try to extend the road, our troops will block them again, NOT just in Dolam. We now know the volume of hot air in pla's mountain.
...

It's fine to put a brave face on it, but just repeating the same thing "next time" is not a good option in real life. Other party will be learning lessons and I can guarantee that it won't be to stop needling India.

Murthy sir, the next Doklam type incident is declaration of war with India. The red line is set

[sudeepj]

O brother!

Brilliant ManishC, but bhakts will twist as Chankian move by Modi/Doval.

Paging mods to clear out the Pakis.