Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

[Jits]

China needs to learn a lesson from this episode that India is no pushover like Philippines and cannot be coerced into accepting anything that we do not want. It needs to look at our history - where even US could not succeed in coercing india to accept all it's 4 letter treaties like NPT or CTBT at a time when India was much weaker than it is today and US was much stronger than what china would be even 30 years from now. The use of pakistan to keep india boxed in south asia is overused and india has come out of that straitjacket as well.

[Rajeev]

Bhutan's press statement - it is disengagement from "both" side , unlike what Global Times would have you believe otherwise

https://twitter.com/Divyanshuish/status ... 5440556032

[chola]

China needs to learn a lesson from this episode that India is no pushover like Philippines and cannot be coerced into accepting anything that we do not want. It needs to look at our history - where even US could not succeed in coercing india to accept all it's 4 letter treaties like NPT or CTBT at a time when India was much weaker than it is today and US was much stronger than what china would be even 30 years from now. The use of pakistan to keep india boxed in south asia is overused and india has come out of that straitjacket as well.

We were never "boxed" in by Pakistan. We live in an exceptionally weak neighborhood with Pakistan and the lizard barely counting as military powers of any note. We still live in this straight jacket if we see ourselves as "boxed in."

We could and should have taken war to Cheen. Instead we settled for "wins" in perception that can't be measured (and already muddied by commie propaganda.)

The power and advantage of our forces arrayed in the borders are real not perception. They could have changed the border and given us a victory that would have been historic and clear for every generation that follows.

Now that would have really broken us out of a self-imposed dhoti-shivering defensive minded straight-jacket.

[sum]

We were never "boxed" in by Pakistan. We live in an exceptionally weak neighborhood with Pakistan and the lizard barely counting as military powers of any note.

Chola-sir,I beg to differ.

I understand the need for not over-estimating any enemy but this seems the other end of the spectrum ( similar to how TSP had surmised that IA had been too weak to fight after all years of counter insurgency and so it was a walkover if they did a Kargil).

I believe we should be realistic in knowing our capabilities and that of opponents.

My opinion of course

[SSridhar]

Modi to attend BRICS meet

[UlanBatori]

Ramana Sir,
Can we change the name of the thread to " Managing Chinese Threat" as we have currently already neutered it?

In ur dreams, iyersan! India NEUTERED the PLA. Not that their mijjiles were worth anything because of their enlarged veins"roads".

Brilliant name for this thread, seen by all 23 chinese who look beyond GobarCrimes. Even seen by some good Indian journos, since many of the points "we" raised appeared in manistream jhapads shortly thereafter.

The other kind of journos should be listed for "re-education".

[anupmisra]

Ramana Sir,
Can we change the name of the thread to " Managing Chinese Threat" as we have currently already neutered it?

I like the term "neutering". It evokes a sense of effective, ongoing and proactive resistance, and ever-evolving strategic thought. Neutering is what one does to mad, out of control, illegitimately bred dogs (... dragons and lizards?).

"Managing" somehow to me refers to "doing the best one can in out of control conditions". I would prefer to stay with the current title.

[anupmisra]

Can one now refer to the Doklam affair as the Dokla affair (with due reverence to the gujju delicacy)?

[Vinu]

PLA next 'calculated' move. To effectively chellange Modi their next president should be with a name at least LVII.

[anupmisra]

PLA next 'calculated' move. To effectively chellange Modi their next president should be with a name at least LVII.

Or, LUii?

[rsingh]

Here is my take on what has happened after this seemingly ambiguous disengagement

Tactical front:
IA has withdrawn 100 meters and has stopped any more Chinese road construction in the Dok la area. IA will be watching from its higher vantage point and can stop construction activities if needed.

Strategic front
Modi govt have gently nudged the Chinese to understand that it is not going to be business as usual. India will aggressively pursue its interests in the LAC and will maintain status quo.

Long term strategy
In spite of the standoff and the military advantages we have in the Himalayas, we need some serious economic and military fire power to keep the Chinese grounded from any middle kingdom adventures.
1. From the military side we need to make sure we can stand on our own legs when it comes to weapons design and manufacturing. We cannot be importing even basic small arms and then claim to be a super power. Modi govt has to seriously pursue make in India goals in the defence sector and seriously reform the ordnance factories. There are some good signs, but major reform is needed in this area.
2. We desperately need good metalled roads, railways and basic infrastructure in the border areas. Troop mobility is still a major concern in Ladakh and AN areas.
3. We need to actively pursue strong diplomatic relationship with US, Japan, SK, Vietnam etc to stop Chinese bullying behaviour.
4. We need to neutralize internal enemies both through democratic means of winning elections and through legal means when there is evidence of criminal treasonous misconduct.

William sir, very keen observation. Please find time to write more. What do you think China took away from here? It was a moke run for them. like planting fake bomb and waited for time taken and procedure followed by security forces to diffuse it. it can help to fine tune next drama.

[Shanmukh]

Shanmukh and SureshS,
Thanks for the details but the end was right, no?

There are purges and some times violent.

UB #2 was charged with corruption and set aside already.

Yes, Ramana-ji. The Soviets never tolerated weakness & failure. Their leaders were like lion tamers in a circus. They had huge power over their lions, but if they fell, their own lions would tear them apart. I am not sure this is a Soviet thing either - even Russian history is always full of tsars ripped apart after they failed in war, etc. This has been the case from the days of Tsar Ivan the Terrible. Russian leaders always have huge power - far more than the power wielded by most countries' leaders, but the flip side is that if they fall & fail, they can expect no mercy from their own underlings.

[Shanmukh]

slight correction Ramana. Stalin did not kill Beria. Beria was arrested by none other than Marshall Zhukov after stalin died.And than he was executed but not by stalin.

Stalin had started undermining Beria in the years before Stalin's death. In 1946 Abakumov had replaced Beria as head of the NKVD - Beria remained Interior minister. Its speculated that Beria had a hand in Stalin's death in 1953, as he and the rest of Stalin's inner circle feared being purged otherwise.
I don't think the dynamic will be very different in the case of Eleven and his politburo.

I have always read that bit - the supposed fight between Stalin & Beria. It is true that to some extent too - NKVD (Beria's most powerful instrument) was wound up in 1946 & split into two parts - MVD & MGB & the new men - Abakumov & Kruglov were not exactly close to Beria (Abakumov is a bit more complicated - he rose due to Beria, but there was also rivalry). However, Stalin kept Beria very close to him till the end, so the fight between Stalin and Beria cannot have been very serious. Stalin was not the man to tolerate any challenges to his rule & Beria was very subservient towards him till the very end.

[Manish_Sharma]

Ramana Sir,
Can we change the name of the thread to " Managing Chinese Threat" as we have currently already neutered it?

It's a process a kriya like breathing, jab tak Suraj Chand rahegaa it will continue.

[Rajeev]

Slightly off the topic but wondering if Vishnu Shom ( NDTV) still active here . Would have been good to get some journalistic perspective too here , even “inside information” from their typical sources in GOI of what really transpired that clinched the breakthrough

[SSridhar]

China non-committal on halting road construction in Dokalam - PTI

China today remained non-committal on the issue of stopping road construction in Dokalam, a day after Indian and Chinese troops ended 73-day standoff that was triggered by China's move to build a road in the border area.

"In order to meet the needs of defending the borders, improving the living conditions, China has long engaged in infrastructure development including the road construction," Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying said.

India and China yesterday ended their standoff in Doklam by withdrawing their troops from the area, just days before Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to China to attend the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) summit.

When asked if China will continue with building the road in the area, Hua said, "we will take into consideration all relevant factors, including the weather, to make relevant construction plan in accordance with the situation on the ground."

Hua reiterated that Chinese border troops "will continue to station and patrol the Doklam area. We will continue to exercise our sovereignty with historic conventions."

She also parried a question whether China is in consultation with Bhutan, which has protested the Chinese troops' road building in Doklam.

"So far we have resolved the issue of illegal trespass of the Indian troops," she said.

When asked whether China halted the work on a road in Doklam to end the standoff so that the BRICS summit could be held, Hua said, "Peaceful resolution of the issue through the diplomatic channels serves the common interests of all relevant parties."

"It shows the sincerity and responsible attitude of China as a major country," Hua added.

Welcoming the end of the standoff, senior Chinese scholars said major lesson out of border tensions is that China and India should be sensitive towards each other's concerns to avert future conflicts.

"I am very glad to hear that finally the two governments demonstrated their maturity and far reaching and farsighted decision to peacefully end the conflict," Hu Shisheng, Director of the official China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations, told PTI.

Hu said China and India should be sensitive to each other's concerns.

Rong Ying, Vice President and Senior Research Fellow of the China Institute of the International Relations, which is affiliated to the Chinese Foreign Ministry, said the resolution of Dokalam standoff showed maturity and resilience of India-China bilateral relations.

"This is by far the most the serious incident between the two countries on the boundary. Ten weeks of very serious and grave situation. So the fact that both sides through the diplomatic means solved it in a peaceful (way), I think it should be definitely welcomed," said Rong, who served as a diplomat in the Chinese embassy in New Delhi.

[rsingh]

^^^^^^^
Provoking headline and first line. hua is just saving H&D.

[KLNMurthy]

I guess the cartoons make me feel a little better but I rather have the MSC rolling into the Tibetan Plateau.

But the nagging, nauseous feeling that we left a monumental military victory on the table persists. We can't willy nilly declare war but here was the perfect opportunity. They threatened war and we should have taken war to them.

In the end what the hell has changed? The PRC propaganda machine is already proclaiming victory because we gave them face.

They have OBOR, CPEC and a thousand other initiatives across the length and breadth of Eurasia, Africa and South America. They have foreign bases planned. They are in heavy in Iran and Greece never mind Pakistan.

A war and a crushing defeat would have slowed their momentum if not put a stop to these plans because it would have diverted their focus and resources into their military and into Tibet. It would have vaulted us clearly over the lizard.

Now, we sit around the next decade or so to see how their plans work out. They have plans, we have hope -- hope that their economy will somehow collapse. Hope is not a proper strategy.

+1

I would have found a way to indefinitely prolong the standoff even while occasionally issuing prim and proper statements about diplomacy.

I see it as giving up the upper hand over an enemy for no benefit. I keep hearing that we have achieved stated objectives and that may be true, but that means nothing at all when looking to defeat an enemy. You can state anything at all, while keeping the focus on ending the enemy.

All the arguments about next-time-this and next-time-that show ignorance of our native wisdom--if you leave things for the future, solving the problem becomes exponentially costlier. In Telugu we say, "what could have been scratched out by a fingernail now requires the use of axes."

I have seen nothing which persuades me that we will be adopting a policy of controlled aggression towards China, following this episode. Only boasts that time and time again, we will execute the same assertive (not aggressive) defense as the enemy continues his relentless aggression on every imaginable front.

The trouble with that is, history doesn't repeat itself, it is not a circle, but a widening spiral, which feels like things are cycling and repeating, bit each time, the scale is magnified. That means the cost of repeating the same thing goes up over time, see the fingernail-axe analogy above. Are we prepared to put our cities at real risk of nuclear incineration when something similar (but not the same) repeats in 5 or 10 years?

I see the fundamental problem on our side as not recognizing that China is an enemy and hence it is our duty towards the Indian people and culture to remain focused on ending that enemy.

I appreciate the argument that, in the big picture, every decision is debatable (did we give in at Doklam or wisely refrained from overreaching when we are not "strong enough?") and we are likely to prevail in the end, whenever that may be. But the future is uncertain, and we may have squandered a concrete opportunity in the present.

[Jarita]

Shanmukh and SureshS,
Thanks for the details but the end was right, no?

There are purges and some times violent.

UB #2 was charged with corruption and set aside already.

Yes, Ramana-ji. The Soviets never tolerated weakness & failure. Their leaders were like lion tamers in a circus. They had huge power over their lions, but if they fell, their own lions would tear them apart. I am not sure this is a Soviet thing either - even Russian history is always full of tsars ripped apart after they failed in war, etc. This has been the case from the days of Tsar Ivan the Terrible. Russian leaders always have huge power - far more than the power wielded by most countries' leaders, but the flip side is that if they fall & fail, they can expect no mercy from their own underlings.

I would hardly use the Soviets as a template for anything. They no longer exist and even Russia's future appears tenuous. I know we are a self flagellating sorts but we need to look inwards and other more successful systems.

[ramana]

Ramana Sir,
Can we change the name of the thread to " Managing Chinese Threat" as we have currently already neutered it?

Ha! Next edition. Lets enjoy the moment.

My problem is Indians don't celebrate victories and rush off to fight new dragons.
Even on Twitter I see big wig analysts with MBAs in upper hand strategy dhoti shivering "look out China will get you elsewhere!"

Yes they could for that is life, but now they got checkmated. The dragon's fire has been doused.

Kureel has captured the situation marvelously. He is the Abu Abraham of current era.

Also when we were young, mothers would frighten us saying "Buchi will come and take you away"
This was reference to General Bussey who razed Bobbili fortress.

He was able to do that as we were divided.
Once NaMo is done al those dividers will be exposed and meet their fates.

This Doklam saga revealed the role of Rahul Gandhi and Robert Vadra who met the Chinese ambassador at the peak of the crisis and gave encouragement to the Chinese.
Next Amarinder Singh trucked paid protesters to Panchkula to bring about a crisis in Haryana near Delhi the heart of the Indian state.

Will not be forgotten.

[Gus]

a good narration of what happened

https://twitter.com/CestMoiz/status/902523778747424768

[pankajs]

The trouble with that is, history doesn't repeat itself, it is not a circle, but a widening spiral, which feels like things are cycling and repeating, bit each time, the scale is magnified. That means the cost of repeating the same thing goes up over time, see the fingernail-axe analogy above. Are we prepared to put our cities at real risk of nuclear incineration when something similar (but not the same) repeats in 5 or 10 years?

My comment is only wrt the highlighted part.

If similar incident can prompt a nuclear attack in 5 to 10 years then the current incident would have put our cities at risk today too.

OTOH, The gap in nuclear field nuke delivery system will only keep closing. In 5 to 10 years we will have more missiles, better missile and a credible submarine based second strike. Wouldn't your logic dictate to postpone any conflict that has the potential to escalate to nuclear exchange?

[Marten]

a good narration of what happened

https://twitter.com/CestMoiz/status/902523778747424768

...

Sir, please post here as well for the benefit of those who cannot get to Twitter!

[anupmisra]

^^^^^^^
Provoking headline and first line. hua is just saving H&D.

Non-committal and vague response from chun mum kya hua. All her answers reflected the "yeh kya hua?" feelings. Now, it all comes down to how the chini awaam digests this loss of H&D. In my opinion, Yeh Kya Hua will softly back pedal / uphill ski over the next few Q&As to make it seem like it was a chini offer all along to stop any further construction in the greater interest of hindi-chini bhai bhai peace efforts.

[anupmisra]

Also when we were young, mothers would frighten us saying "Buchi will come and take you away"

When I was young (way back in the 60's) my mother convinced me to eat everything on my plate because there are so many starving chinese kids who would be glad to get those morsels.

[Singha]

another han warrior named sakura gets told off by harpreet
https://twitter.com/CestMoiz/status/902201664945389568

[UlanBatori]

China non-committal on halting road construction in Dokalam - PTI

Matters a fa** in a thunderstorm, to use gentle language.
Imagine if China had come out with a huge wall painting as they used to do in Mao's time:

CHINA WILL FOREVER STOP ROAD CONSTRUCTION NEAR INDIA!

Would u believe it? The leptires don't have credibility. Period.
Time to quote the late KPS Gill:

Terrorism in Punjab did not end because the terrorists decided to end it, or because the People Got Tired of Terrorism.
Terrorism ended because we killed the terrorists.

Or in American wisdom:

Praise the Lawd, but Keep Da Powder Dry

[pankajs]

Anyone who looked at the map would have reached the same conclusion but some trust news media more. This is for them.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 264898.cms
Indian soldiers withdraw but hold vantage point, ready to step in again

NEW DELHI: Indian troops are now once again sitting pretty in a militarily advantageous position at their Doka La outpost on the Sikkim border, having almost completed their withdrawal from the Doklam face-off site by Monday evening.

From the Doka La post, the Indian soldiers will continue to keep a hawk-eye on the Doklam bowl - which is Bhutanese territory but claimed by China - less than 500 meters away down the ridge slope. [The point of the standoff is not more than 100-150 meters form Doka La post of IA]

"Our soldiers sit on the top, hold the ridge and can swiftly intervene, as they pro-actively did in mid-June, if the People's Liberation Army once again tries to unilaterally change the status quo by constructing a road near the Sikkim-Bhutan-Tibet tri-junction," said a source.

The defence establishment here believes it has unequivocally proved its point to China that it will not allow the PLA to extend its motorable track towards the Jampheri (Zomplri) Ridge, which is "militarily very sensitive" because it overlooks India's vulnerable Siliguri corridor or the "Chicken's Neck" area.

It was on June 16 that Indian soldiers had come down from Doka La to physically prevent Chinese troops, armed with heavy earth-moving equipment, from constructing the road in the Doklam area, which is disputed between Beijing and Thimphu.

<snip>

"It paid off. Neither China, nor India wanted war. We have no problems with China sending patrols to the area, like it has been doing for years. While Chinese troops frequently patrol till the Torsa Nala, they even go up till the Bhutanese Army's Chela post once in three-four years," said a source.

Even now folks can glean many other details about the terrain if only they take the pain of looking at the 3D map of the area. For e.g. Why the road the Chinese were trying to build has to pass within 100-150 meters from the Doka La post of IA.

[RajeshA]

If we want to have an upper hand in Tibet, we have to make the Tibetan people a part of our strategy. In fact they are best suited for mountain warfare.

We need to have a Tibetan Mountain Regiment, which allows all Tibetans in India to enroll, serve India (and Tibet) and get 1st class military training.

We have to call out the whole of Tibet as occupied territory. History would support Tibet's claims to be independent!

[rsingh]

singha

another han warrior named sakura gets told off by harpreet
https://twitter.com/CestMoiz/status/902201664945389568

Post on 15 h time line

[UlanBatori]

PLA next 'calculated' move. To effectively chellange Modi their next president should be with a name at least LVII.

Or, LUii?

How about "Xit"? Right now PLA leader is Shi Ting Chin

[KLNMurthy]

Guddu,
There is a Chinese saying that says never corner your enemy and leave them a way out to escape. If you corner then you could have an unnecessary fight.
...

KLNM, Please read this. Its not the Chinese script. Its Indian script.

I predict soon China will reform itself.
This is the Battle of Vienna moment.

I appreciate the point. It may well be Indian script, which is good, but I worry about what story the script is telling.

Is it the story of Krishna giving sisupala 99 chances to change while keeping his echandee?

If so, are we Lord Krishna who came to Earth with the specific mission of bringing a controlled but violent end to a yuga? Is that a reasonable price for is to pay?

[yensoy]

If we want to have an upper hand in Tibet, we have to make the Tibetan people a part of our strategy. In fact they are best suited for mountain warfare.

We need to have a Tibetan Mountain Regiment, which allows all Tibetans in India to enroll, serve India (and Tibet) and get 1st class military training.

We have to call out the whole of Tibet as occupied territory. History would support Tibet's claims to be independent!

Using affected population to man a military team can last one generation, at most two. Kids of Tibetan refugees in India are probably doing the same thing your and my kids are, and probably have the same dreams & goals in life, not all of which is centered around giving China a kick in the nads.

[Prasad]

So this chapter is done and dusted. Next will be the BRICS meet. How do we go forward and tackle the dlagon? After the sting of the dokla slap wears off, pla will try again. And they aren't as handicapped in other areas of the border. The Pangong Tso incident is clear evidence of other such points where they have and will needle us in future. Govt must shore up and make up deficiencies in these areas. Including hte UK areas where helicopter passes were made.

[Gus]

Sir, please post here as well for the benefit of those who cannot get to Twitter!

aiyoo..its 40 plus tweets ..too much copy-past work sir, unless somebody know of tools to collate tweets into notepad or whatever..

[anupmisra]

Now, neuter this hindi-chini bhai bhai.

Chinese patients head to India for latest medicines after domestic crackdown

More and more Chinese patients are traveling to India for medication and treatment, especially for liver diseases and cancer. They are attracted by India's cost-effective treatment and high-quality medical services. Some Chinese still hold biased attitudes toward India's medical sector

Chinese patients in third- and fourth-tier cities seek medical treatment in India because the country provides high-quality services in private hospitals

"The professionalism and cleanliness of India's private hospital is impressive. It's more like a hotel, unlike Chinese hospitals which are so crowded," Hua told Liaowang Institute, a Chinese think tank.

There are nearly 10 million hepatitis C patients in China, making it the nation with the most HCV infections.

Did the chini patients not heed their goberment's advice to leave the land of diseases and contamination?

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1063486.shtml

[Marten]

Sir, please post here as well for the benefit of those who cannot get to Twitter!

aiyoo..its 40 plus tweets ..too much copy-past work sir, unless somebody know of tools to collate tweets into notepad or whatever..

No Gus saar, I pinged Kancha san so that he can post here whenever he has the time. Left your post in there so he would have context.

[Singha]

Some meds for cancer are price controlled in india and a lot cheaper than china.

[anupmisra]

Some meds for cancer are price controlled in india and a lot cheaper than china.

And the chinis benefit from the lower prices. All benefits from any subsidies on medical goods should go to Indians (first and only). The rest of the paying world should pay market rate. That's how its done elsewhere.

[KLNMurthy]

If we want to have an upper hand in Tibet, we have to make the Tibetan people a part of our strategy. In fact they are best suited for mountain warfare.

We need to have a Tibetan Mountain Regiment, which allows all Tibetans in India to enroll, serve India (and Tibet) and get 1st class military training.

We have to call out the whole of Tibet as occupied territory. History would support Tibet's claims to be independent!

OT but IIRC there has been such a not-so-open Tibetan formation as early as the 1971 war.