Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

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fanne
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by fanne »

Thanks shiv
Any comments on the Chinese able to mass 32 Div and the performance of planar air asset in Tibet?
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by Deans »

shiv wrote: Where are the border points from which the Chinese can attack? There are 9 points where conflict could take place. I will list them and write some detail from what I have observed on GE. the points will be listed from East to West

1. Eastern tip of Arunachal - near Walong
2. West of Walong along the Yangtse (Siang river in India) valley
3. Tawang
4. Sikkim/DoKala
5. Uttaranchal - Barahoti plain
6. Himachal
7. Up north along the Indus river as it starts from China right up to Demchok in the Leh area
8. Pangong Lake area
9. Aksai Chin proper


As Shiv mentions, there are limited points where conflict can take place. At each of these points we have the following forces to counter.

1. East Arunachal: 3rd corps at Dimapur with 3 divisions, the nearest of which has its HQ in Dibrugarh. Although it takes time for any significant
force on our side to get to Walong, it will take the Chinese longer, due to the terrain and lack of roads.
2. Tawang: 4th corps at Tezpur, with its 3 Mountain divisions is well placed to handle any incursion.
3. Sikkim: We have 33rd Corps in Siliguri with 3 mountain divisions. I'm not sure if any part of our strike corps has been raised. If it has
we also have 59th Inf division in Pangarh, which would move to Sikkim.
As a reserve in the East, we have an additional division in Ranchi.

4. Uttaranchal: We have 6th Mountain Div, in Bareilly. There is also a RAPID division in Dehra Dun, but that is part of our strike corps, unsuitable for mountain warfare. Given the distances, we should be able to get to the Barahoti plain faster than any large sized PLA formation.

6. Himachal/Demchok/Chushul: 9th Corps in Yol would handle Himachal. It has 2 Mountain divisions and 3 armoured brigades (intended to fight
in Jammu/Pathankot) though I''m not sure if the terrain here is Tank friendly.

7. Aksai Chin: 14th Corps at Leh, comprising 2 divisions at Leh and Dras (excluding a brigade in Siachen).
Last edited by Deans on 25 Jul 2017 22:33, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by rsingh »

shiv wrote:
UlanBatori wrote: Shiv, wonder what would happen, given the General's very sober assessment, if the PM were to order civil defense drills all over India. Sireens, and ppl doing drills for nuclear attack. Like .
There will be no war. There will be rebellion in the ranks of government. The army will be very angry and embarrassed when the government is forced to call a pull out from Dokala. We will lose the war without firing a shot that way.

Civll defence drills in India are common - but they are carried out by the national disaster management authority. In the 1960s paranoia of the US people either had shelters to go to or were having them built and stocking with Iodine and stuff to last our a nuke war. In India everyone lives out in the open. In general the "sentiment" of aam aadmi, whose brother and son join army is that if my brother is going to die at the frontier I will face difficulty here and die if need be. Death is looked at differently in India. it is only the wealthy hoity toity who want to live and be spared of the horrors of war and the politicians all come from this class.

I think in India people will not be asked to save their asses, they will be asked to face up to danger and hardship and save the nation. Just my guess..
I think GOI doesn't want to show panic and play into Chinese hand. IA was sent there after certain threshold was reached by PLA. IA is not going to retreat and give Chinese a victory. That is just not going to happen.It is either Chinese withdraw ( citing winter) and expecting indians to do the same or some border skirmishes. No body is going to bomb big cities. And main reason is Economic growth. Nifty is 10000. We are doing good. Why spread panic.
Chinese make more noise when they feel that opposition is not in the mood to escalate the event. Example, they provoke USA again and again. US is not going to bomb any airbase. Indian leadership has been expandable and Chinese are used show dadagiri. things will change from now on.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by Varoon Shekhar »

An India today tv discussion program strongly refuted the Chinese statement about Hindu nationalism. Even a left type prof of JNU rebuked the Chinese. Good sign I think
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by fanne »

Dean sir keeping two front war in mind I count 14 Div, 2 of which maybe suspect, 9 Corp that looks like tsp specific formation. Math right? So we have 24 against tsp?
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by nam »

Deans wrote:
2. Tawang: 4th corps at Tezpur, with its 3 Mountain divisions is well placed to handle any incursion.
What is the amount of air cover will the PLA units sitting on top of tawang will get? I am aware of one airbase nearby. Are there anymore.

I am thinking, as soon the first round of artillery is fired anywhere on LAC, this lot should be pounded with standoff PGM by IAF.

The capability of IAF will the key to counter any action by PLA.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by Mort Walker »

shiv wrote:
Mort Walker wrote:The Chinese have a surplus of mindless drones. They wouldn't mind if a few million perished. Look at the Long March and Great Leap Forward.
You mean Indians value life?
The common Chinese person and lower rank enlisted PLA members. Manpower of the PLA is bloated in order to provide jobs.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by shiv »

rsingh wrote: I think GOI doesn't want to show panic and play into Chinese hand.
A nation with the type and size of armed forces we have has no reason to show panic. Those forces exist for such contingencies.

In fact all the panic I am seeing is among some Indians - even on BRF reading Chinese media. No one else is panicked
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by shiv »

Mort Walker wrote: The common Chinese person and lower rank enlisted PLA members. Manpower of the PLA is bloated in order to provide jobs.
We will create more job opportunities for them. They can get new recruits as they bury existing ones. If that is what they want,
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by Mort Walker »

CRamS wrote:If NaMo is perceived to have caved in to Chincom demands of pulling back from DoKla, his haters will have a field day making a laughing stock out him and BJP, and its good bye BJP in 2019. We will back to Congoon rule (makes my thrown up at the very prospect of that disgusting spectacle). I have a feeling Chincoms in collusion with opposition traitors in India are gaming this in unison. That statement that Doklam is a manifestation of "Hindu nationalism" by CCP is a dead give away. If NaMo is perceived to have "lost" this round, it will be an irreversible political disaster internally. So at the very least, ModiJi/DovalJi will manage the battle pf perception both internally and externally. It will be interesting to watch how they do it.
As long as there is progress on other fronts no one in India will care. As it is many of us on BRF are not in India and from looking at Facebook and WhatsApp, no one India is too concerned.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by ramana »

fanne wrote:Dean sir keeping two front war in mind I count 14 Div, 2 of which maybe suspect, 9 Corp that looks like tsp specific formation. Math right? So we have 24 against tsp?
fanne, I know you are trying to quiet your own angst but after Deans satisfied that wrt China, whay ask about TSP!

No need to panic so much. Take it light.
I will say this it will be offensive-defense wrt TSP and defensive-defense wrt China.
That's the big picture.

And if both attack together its different level of war.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by Cosmo_R »

shiv wrote:...
You mean Indians value life?
Yes—our own skins. Very valuable. Neighbor's? Not so much.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by Mort Walker »

shiv wrote:
rsingh wrote: I think GOI doesn't want to show panic and play into Chinese hand.
A nation with the type and size of armed forces we have has no reason to show panic. Those forces exist for such contingencies.

In fact all the panic I am seeing is among some Indians - even on BRF reading Chinese media. No one else is panicked
This is true. I have not slept well since this weekend and have been watching news reports and YouTube videos, including yours, and scouring the news websites and BRF.

Truthfully, I'm in panic mode telling my relatives in Delhi and Mumbai on WhatsApp to start thinking about a safety plan. Much like some of us in the US have for things like tornadoes. My relatives have largely ignored me on social media. The only thing about China they seem to care about is how popular Dangaal film is there.
Last edited by Mort Walker on 25 Jul 2017 23:15, edited 1 time in total.
schinnas
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by schinnas »

Ramana Garu, any reason India cannot undertake offensive defence against China? Mutualbland grab for later negotiations and trade off seems to be the best strategy. Why unnecessarily limit war strategy options when enemy does not?

Did dhoti shivering of top politicos in the past lead to such a timid strategy?
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by shiv »

Mort Walker wrote:
Truthfully, I'm in panic mode telling my relatives in Delhi and Mumbai on WhatsApp to start thinking about a safety plan. Much like some of us in the US have for things like tornadoes.
Thanks for making the Chinese happy. But nothing like that in India
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by SwamyG »

CRamS wrote:If NaMo is perceived to have caved in to Chincom demands of pulling back from DoKla, his haters will have a field day making a laughing stock out him and BJP, and its good bye BJP in 2019. We will back to Congoon rule (makes my thrown up at the very prospect of that disgusting spectacle)................. If NaMo is perceived to have "lost" this round, it will be an irreversible political disaster internally. So at the very least, ModiJi/DovalJi will manage the battle pf perception both internally and externally.
I need to laugh at this post. Sorry. If you think people will vote Modi out (or Congress in ) because of what is happening in Bhutan. Please get a grip.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by shiv »

Well folks - It's time for me to get out and stay out of this thread...
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by manju »

shiv wrote:
Mort Walker wrote:
Truthfully, I'm in panic mode telling my relatives in Delhi and Mumbai on WhatsApp to start thinking about a safety plan. Much like some of us in the US have for things like tornadoes.
Thanks for making the Chinese happy. But nothing like that in India
Was speaking with my taxi drievr on way to airport. His brother in law is a jawan posted in Ladhak now. I Was impressed with what he said... reflected sentiments on BR.


"Cheens are acting smart. we should fight them if they dont back off! If we dont then no one in the neighborhood will respect us"
Last edited by manju on 25 Jul 2017 23:19, edited 1 time in total.
Karthik S
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by Karthik S »

I see people in BRF dhoti shivering. Others are busy with Bigg Boss in India.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by Karthik S »

manju wrote:
shiv wrote: Thanks for making the Chinese happy. But nothing like that in India
Was speaking with my taxi drievr on way to airport... Was impressed with what he said... reflected sentiments on BR.


"Cheens are acting smart. we should fight them if they dont back off! If we dont then no one in the neighborhood will respect us"
It's actually the other way around. After all this war cry, if Cheen back off, they won't be taken seriously.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by SwamyG »

shiv wrote:
Mort Walker wrote: I hope you're wrong, but it is most likely the truth after the 28th July Indian forces will pull out of Dok La. It will be business as usual.
I will mark this post with a @@@@ and do a string search for it after July 28th. At least you have been kind enough to make a prediction that is a few days away. Most predictions on BRF are so far in the future that people will be dead before anyone can get back and challenge a failed prediction
My prediction is war will not happen; jostling and skirmishes will happen.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by g.sarkar »

http://www.abplive.in/india-news/chines ... row-556380
Chinese daily says Doval 'main schemer', he can't end border row
BEIJING: A leading Chinese daily has called India's National Security Advisor (NSA) Ajit Doval "one of the main schemers" behind the border row and said his trip to Beijing on Friday won't help settle the row.
The state-run Global Times said in a scathing editorial: "Doval is believed to be one of the main schemers behind the current border standoff. Doval will inevitably be disappointed if he attempts to bargain with Beijing over the border disputes."
Reiterating that the withdrawal of Indian troops from Doklam was a "precondition", it said Dovtal's visit for a meeting of BRICS NSAs meet will not change Beijing's stance on the issue.
"India's withdrawal from Chinese territory is a precondition and a basis for any meaningful dialogue between the two sides. The Chinese side will not talk with India on the issue before the Indian troops' unconditional withdrawal."
....
I guess Pakistan is not the only country where Mr. Doval is unpopular.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by Mort Walker »

The only thing that would calm many of our nerves is if Modi gives a national address stating that India is ready.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by fanne »

Ramna sir, I am not panicking at all. Look at the big picture. If I know namo and white pegion right, they will not initiate anything that is fool hardy and that we can loose. The govt initiated this (by not looking the other way, upa did that successfully for 10 years). I just want to go nderstand the dynamics. It is two front front war if the balloon goes up. All news indicate that goi has factored that in. I am just catching up.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by pankajs »

Perhaps the Chinese were briefed by the Bakis on the *devil* himself. BTW, did the baki ISPR share with China the video on Doval created by ISI?
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by Prasad »

nam wrote:
Deans wrote:
2. Tawang: 4th corps at Tezpur, with its 3 Mountain divisions is well placed to handle any incursion.
What is the amount of air cover will the PLA units sitting on top of tawang will get? I am aware of one airbase nearby. Are there anymore.

I am thinking, as soon the first round of artillery is fired anywhere on LAC, this lot should be pounded with standoff PGM by IAF.

The capability of IAF will the key to counter any action by PLA.
There have been instances of PLAAF fighters from Lhasa coming up to try to intercept IAF fighters that seemed like they were heading towards Tibet. So we could expect some presence. But if we're going to all HAM then we should be able to handle them easily. What they do have though is unmanned and manned radar stations and the prime threat will be from IAD with hq-7/9/12/16 battalions.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by pankajs »

Mort Walker wrote:The only thing that would calm many of our nerves is if Modi gives a national address stating that India is ready.
No no saar.

Modi giving a national address will imply that India is rattled. Modi is doing the reverse wishing Xi on his birthday as if they are chaddi buddies.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by nam »

Ofcourse the SAMs are the biggest threat. At the same it will be a interesting cat and mouse game with the Himalayan mountains providing way for jets to sneak in and dive in to if faced with a incoming threat. Remember the valleys are quite deep and jets can fly between them.

The Himalayas are true difficulty & force multipliers at the same time!

Add this our Yehudi friends should be sending some interesting goodies for beating SAMs.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by la.khan »

Hi all,

While the focus is on India-Bhutan-Tibet tri-junction, how is the rest of the border? Nothern border areas like Ladakh? Middle border areas of Uttaranchal & Himachal? Eastern borders of Arunachal Pradesh? Any sign of Chinese troop movements/buildup? Any sign of Indian troop movements, reinforcements rushed in?

Hope our humint (RAW, IB), elint (NTRO), space based assets (Cartosat etc) are all tuned in.

It is always good time to resume nuclear testing; my pet peeve with Indian establishment is that testing is done once in a blue moon, preferably, when no one is looking :P . I prefer nuclear tests be carried out regularly (may be once or twice an year) so that we can validate our bomb designs, have confidence in our bomb designs, our military is familiar with the hardware (dimensions, weight, reliability etc), DAE/DRDO can gather data (input vs. output) etc.

I wonder how far is India from 1 MT H bomb capability :?: There are no known pointers to this in the public domain.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by Rudradev »

nam wrote:
Add this our Yehudi friends should be sending some interesting goodies for beating SAMs.
Our Yehudi friends are greater friends of the Chinese than of us. Recall what Bibi Netanyahu was heard saying on a hot mike to a meeting of European emissaries.

They will stay strictly neutral this time, unlike in Kargil.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by ShauryaT »

Deans wrote:
shiv wrote: Where are the border points from which the Chinese can attack? There are 9 points where conflict could take place. I will list them and write some detail from what I have observed on GE. the points will be listed from East to West

1. Eastern tip of Arunachal - near Walong
2. West of Walong along the Yangtse (Siang river in India) valley
3. Tawang
4. Sikkim/DoKala
5. Uttaranchal - Barahoti plain
6. Himachal
7. Up north along the Indus river as it starts from China right up to Demchok in the Leh area
8. Pangong Lake area
9. Aksai Chin proper


As Shiv mentions, there are limited points where conflict can take place. At each of these points we have the following forces to counter.

1. East Arunachal: 3rd corps at Dimapur with 3 divisions, the nearest of which has its HQ in Dibrugarh. Although it takes time for any significant
force on our side to get to Walong, it will take the Chinese longer, due to the terrain and lack of roads.
2. Tawang: 4th corps at Tezpur, with its 3 Mountain divisions is well placed to handle any incursion.
3. Sikkim: We have 33rd Corps in Siliguri with 3 mountain divisions. I'm not sure if any part of our strike corps has been raised. If it has
we also have 59th Inf division in Pangarh, which would move to Sikkim.
As a reserve in the East, we have an additional division in Ranchi.

4. Uttaranchal: We have 6th Mountain Div, in Bareilly. There is also a RAPID division in Dehra Dun, but that is part of our strike corps, unsuitable for mountain warfare. Given the distances, we should be able to get to the Barahoti plain faster than any large sized PLA formation.

6. Himachal/Demchok/Chushul: 9th Corps in Yol would handle Himachal. It has 2 Mountain divisions and 3 armoured brigades (intended to fight
in Jammu/Pathankot) though I''m not sure if the terrain here is Tank friendly.

7. Aksai Chin: 14th Corps at Leh, comprising 2 divisions at Leh and Dras (excluding a brigade in Siachen).
I think 2 mountain divisions (infantry) have been raised for 17 MSC. Also, two battalions of scouts in Aru. P and one in Sikkim of recent vintage to supplement ITBP. SFF is a 10,000 man strong asset. In addition since 2009 a methodical plan to upgrade various airfields and a slow but sure progress on border roads.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by ShauryaT »

la.khan wrote: It is always good time to resume nuclear testing; my pet peeve with Indian establishment is that testing is done once in a blue moon, preferably, when no one is looking :P . I prefer nuclear tests be carried out regularly (may be once or twice an year) so that we can validate our bomb designs, have confidence in our bomb designs, our military is familiar with the hardware (dimensions, weight, reliability etc), DAE/DRDO can gather data (input vs. output) etc.

I wonder how far is India from 1 MT H bomb capability :?: There are no known pointers to this in the public domain.
la.khan: Welcome to the forum. If you are interested in nuclear matters, lookup the deterrence threads. Some of us have grown grey (maybe not wise though), some fat and some have grown up kids,who were babies since this nuclear discussion on the board started :)
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by ShauryaT »

SwamyG wrote:
shiv wrote: I will mark this post with a @@@@ and do a string search for it after July 28th. At least you have been kind enough to make a prediction that is a few days away. Most predictions on BRF are so far in the future that people will be dead before anyone can get back and challenge a failed prediction
My prediction is war will not happen; jostling and skirmishes will happen.
Mutual withdrawal to status quo ante pre June 16 is the only viable option for both sides. When will this withdrawal occur no predictions on that but this is a GREAT move by India at many many levels. The minimum we could have done.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by Katare »

This situation is a lot different than what is was in 1960s. Nehru's openly declared forward policy, white paper on Indo-China relations and him mouthing off in media threw a lot of ghee in the fire and got entire nation churning for the action. Now we have a man at helm who knows how to deal with these guys in their own language and manner without having ideological baggage's hanging around his neck. The current administration is not stupid that it'll give any jingoistic statement or address to nation and curtail it's own space for negotiating it's way to it's objectives.

I don't think much of the world, India or China is worried about Dokalam, half as much combined as people here. People are already talking about no-phone and electricity in Northern and southern India.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by Guddu »

Uttarakhand is the home of Chief of Army Bipin Rawat and Kumaon Regiment, doubt Cheeni will initiate anything there!. They are tough fighters there. As others have mentioned, China is doing pysops etc, both sides will withdraw simultaneously AFTER discussions, though none will openly disclose ongoing discussions, which I suspect are happening as we speak. While its too early to take a victory lap, the Chinese are the losers so far. They can only redeem themselves by initiating a war AND winning it. Draws dont count.

On the whole, this will have a lasting effect on Chinese. Future standoffs will only occur where the Chinese have an edge and are willing to go to war for it. It may even lead to lasting peace, since China's bluff has been called. The next battlefield might be CPEC/POK.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by ldev »

I can see comments about "people panicking about electricity being cut off in India etc", maybe in relation to comments posted by me. To panic is one thing, but to be realistic as to what military options are on the table for both sides and to list them is being realistic. 1962 was a debacle for India. I think India has learnt the lessons of 1962 very well and if a border war happens now, India will acquit itself well. Force levels, training, equipment has all been updated and China no longer has superior forces at the border to ensure a repeat of 1962. But one must also not fall into the classical trap of "fighting the last war" even if today India is very well prepared to fight that last war. What if the next war is not a border war? What will be options then for India? A realistic assessment of those options is what is needed.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by UlanBatori »

Anyone remember the pressure on GOI at the end of 1999? From Dilli I mean.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by ldev »

UlanBatori wrote:Anyone remember the pressure on GOI at the end of 1999? From Dilli I mean.
Exactly, NASCOMM and the IT lobby had virtually camped in Delhi. Mota bhai's group was afraid that their refinery in Gujarat would be one of the first targets. And that is before any shots were fired anywhere other than at the border.

The HUGE difference today is the presence of Modi.
Last edited by ldev on 26 Jul 2017 02:23, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by Manish_Sharma »

pankajs wrote:
Mort Walker wrote:The only thing that would calm many of our nerves is if Modi gives a national address stating that India is ready.
No no saar.

Modi giving a national address will imply that India is rattled. Modi is doing the reverse wishing Xi on his birthday as if they are chaddi buddies.
Exactly!

Let me repost thi story:

CHI HSING TZU WAS A TRAINER OF FIGHTING COCKS FOR KING HSUAN. HE WAS TRAINING
A FINE BIRD. THE KING KEPT ASKING IF THE BIRD WERE READY FOR COMBAT.

'NOT YET', SAID THE TRAINER. 'HE IS FULL OF FIRE. HE IS READY TO PICK A FIGHT WITH
EVERY OTHER BIRD. HE IS VAIN AND CONFIDENT OF HIS OWN STRENGTH'.

AFTER TEN DAYS HE ANSWERED AGAIN: 'NOT YET. HE FLARES UP WHEN HE HEARS
ANOTHER BIRD CROW'.

AFTER TEN MORE DAYS: 'NOT YET. HE STILL GETS THAT ANGRY LOOK AND RUFFLES HIS
FEATHERS'.

AGAIN TEN DAYS. THE TRAINER SAID: 'NOW HE IS NEARLY READY. WHEN ANOTHER BIRD
CROWS, HIS EYE DOES NOT EVEN FLICKER. HE STANDS IMMOBILE LIKE A COCK OF WOOD.

HE IS A MATURE FIGHTER. OTHER BIRDS WILL TAKE ONE LOOK AT HIM AND RUN'.


Such is the relaxed+powered level of Karamyogi PM's response. Cheeni throat is under his knee, so cheeni is thrashing about like fish thrown out of water on hot dry sand.
Rudradev
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4226
Joined: 06 Apr 2003 12:31

Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Post by Rudradev »

UlanBatori wrote:Anyone remember the pressure on GOI at the end of 1999? From Dilli I mean.
Are you referring to IC814?
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