Neutering & Defanging Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

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Ashokk
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Ashokk » 24 Jul 2017 13:59

TOI faithfully reports today's rant - China tells India not to harbour illusions

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby sudhan » 24 Jul 2017 14:13

The latest statement comes straight from their Ministry of Defence (these guys probably also write catchy punchlines for Chinese action movies).. They are upping the ante..

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby TKiran » 24 Jul 2017 14:14

https://mobile.twitter.com/Chellaney/st ... 8692441088

Brahma Chellaney @Chellaney

Instead of leveraging trade to rein in Chinese bellicosity, India has done the opposite—allowed China to double its trade surplus since 2014


This is still a mystery.... N Sitharaman should explain... What balls China is holding of NaMo that he is not able to control this bull$hit?? A sixth class student in Andhra Pradesh aspires to become a scientist in NASA, but would not like to study in Shatong University in Shanghai... What stops us to impose severe economic strangulation of cheen imports since 2014?? The Hans have the finance ministry of GoI by balls...
Last edited by TKiran on 24 Jul 2017 14:24, edited 1 time in total.

nam
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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby nam » 24 Jul 2017 14:18

Anyone wants to comment on my query?

nam wrote:This "brigadification" business is great for overseas deployment, fighting helpless countries, TV wars and works for USA because of the hammer called USAF.

How will the Chinese use brigades against a large army formation? Let say there are 25 PLA brigades with their own artillery support. Will they will have 25 point of action? Will PLAAF be on call at 25 points? How will integral artillery work with other brigade artillery? Will the artillery move with the brigades? or sit together with other brigade artillery?

So say against a IA Strike Corps will these brigades fight their own battles? If the brigades have to be deployed together because it has to face a Corp, well what is the point of having brigades? They might as well be divisions.

Even if 25 brigades make 25 point of entry , any brigade meeting IA corps would be decimated. Corps don't even have to call in for IAF, as they can handle the brigades themselves. Which leaves IAF lot of time on their hand .....having fun with brigades "integral" air support.

Or I am being naïve.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Philip » 24 Jul 2017 14:58

In a "broad front" Chinese action,the role of the IAF will be crucial,esp. in the first few days/hours. Apart from destroying Chin forces in support of the IA,destroying their logistic support and infrastructure remains a key priority.The Ladakh/Aksai Chin sector must be cut off from the rest of Tibet,as it is the most difficult to support except through Pak,Karakorum Highway key points attacked, and destruction of the Chinese airfields a must. The IAF have to dominate the skies over Tibet (not part of China).Snapping the links between TIbet and China itself another key task.The road/rail link severed at as many places as possible.Here the use of Spl. forces becomes evident. Once we have disrupted China's ability to supply Tibet logistically,the hurt and pain will be felt up XI Gins' "internals".A string of blazing wrecks of Chinese "junks" in the IOR and ICS will be the best signal to the PRC and the world at large not to F-around with India.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby krisna » 24 Jul 2017 15:03

SwamyG wrote:<snip>

Both India and China can gain allies and enemies in those lands, and keep China and India embattled in that region, without ever bringing it to the shores of India. :mrgreen: India is the nice kid, China is the bully. In order to appreciate the nice, one needs a bully around. The nice kid just needs to be strong and mind its business.

Give China a break folks, allow it back to come into Indic Sphere of Influence.


Only way is for China is to lose its Eurocentric view and become Chinese in nature.
Communism is one of the poisons of enlightenment and reformation in Europe which came out of church repression for centuries
(Analogy of reformation is sort of similar but not exactly to samudra manthan as seen in Hinduism. Others are feminism etc.)
Jmts

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Singha » 24 Jul 2017 15:14

brigade can mean anything these days - without details of orbat it is premature to speculate.

- at the high end are the american expeditionary brigade which pack the firepower of atleast a div in any other army

- at the low end are the syrian-iraqi volunteer militias like marytr ahmed abdo brigade, imam ali brigade, liwa fatemiyoun brigade and many more which number a few 100 , and have a few technicals/ifv/tanks/artillery under charismatic leaders based on some sect, or regional, or town affiliation same way mohallas get together to celebrate durga puja or ganesh puja , the middle east societies have militias based on town/clan/political party. and they can be agile and expeditionary too - afghani liwa fatemiyoun with probably some pak shias mixed in are fighting tank battles far away in syria. they carry everything necessary , forage for food if needed, do not expect lavish artillery and air protection and are mobile hordes. they can do fight pitched battles if needed, sometimes they scout for bigger forces or screen them.

- even lower are the isis raiding parties which appear suddenly out of the desert in hit and run mode and sometimes to stay (takeover of mosul in 2014). these too are the new age light brigades. these are real PITA as they move fast, travel light and can lurk anywhere. they killed some 25 syrians last week and were beaten off either by alert defenders or minefields in a couple of other places.
the first isis attack on mosul was intended to hit a few places, open a few jails and then decamp. but seeing the collapse of police and army except few points, the commander thought why not go all in and called in a second convoy from syria which arrived a day later and they managed to take this huge city with maybe just a couple 1000 fighters.

regular armies have the org structure and training to command multiple brigades from division and corps HQs and nothing prevents multiple brigades from operating together or sharing resources. even our divisions mainly operate in brigades due to lack of wide open terrain for move larger formations.

if we consider tibet plateau to be a colder and higher version of the middle east desert with its sparse pop density, there is a place and role for all 3 types of brigades i outlined above in the army commanders playbook

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Jits » 24 Jul 2017 15:30

krisna wrote:
SwamyG wrote:<snip>

Only way is for China is to lose its Eurocentric view and become Chinese in nature.
Communism is one of the poisons of enlightenment and reformation in Europe which came out of church repression for centuries
(Analogy of reformation is sort of similar but not exactly to samudra manthan as seen in Hinduism. Others are feminism etc.)
Jmts


Feminism is communism in skirts, both are poison (cancer) for society.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby nam » 24 Jul 2017 16:05

PLA brigades are not going to have the firepower of US brigades, which has more Apaches than toilet roles and 24/7 grocery by USAF.

So what is the kind of force, the PLA can throw at us? 3-4 battalion sized brigades? 3 brigade division?

It is given that we will not fire the first shot. So PLA will have first comer advantage, which will allow them to strike at their place of choice. So I think it is important for us to understand the force level that will go in to action.


PS: if the Chinese mobilise, we need to make up stories of CFV and strike first, not let them have this advantage of striking at will. We cannot sit and wait for our men to die for some moral grandstanding of "he did it firsst"

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby rajpa » 24 Jul 2017 16:15

this might be a good time for the dalai lama to implore to the tibetans to save their lands from the han. and welcome the indians.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby UlanBatori » 24 Jul 2017 16:56

Time fol dhoti shiveling.
Vely vely vely VELY glave consequences. "Do not have any irrusions!"

This is the kind of noise that preceded the 1967 clash. Which is why I was hoping someone has the history of 1967.
IMO they are trying to use this to capture Arunachal Pradesh. So perhaps the right planning should be to go all-out and kick the PLA out of Appukuttan Mesa (aka "tea-pet")

[urhttp://www.news18.com/news/india/indian-soldiers-can-withdraw-get-caught-or-be-killed-says-ex-chinese-diplomat-1467545.html]Indian Tloops Can Withdlaw, Get Caught or be Kirred: China's Ex-dipromat[/url]
“When peopre in unifolm get acloss the boldel to move into the tellitoly of the othel side, they natularry become enemies who can go out voruntaliry, be captuled or kirred,” said Liu Youfa, a former Chinese consur genel(i)ar.
Last edited by UlanBatori on 24 Jul 2017 17:03, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby rajpa » 24 Jul 2017 17:03

just saw this video


now it dawns on me that the Bhutanese simply do not want to have diplomatic relations with China because of the murder of Buddhism and Tibet by the Chinese.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby UlanBatori » 24 Jul 2017 17:04

Wonder what happens if there is a regime change in NoKo about now....

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SSridhar » 24 Jul 2017 17:17

India's dollar diplomacy takes off, puts China's domination under threat - Dipanjan Roy Chowdhury, Economic Times
Although a late starter, India is fast catching up with China in extending credit world over to build infrastructure and push economic ventures.

While Delhi extended LoC worth 10 bn USD to its partners between 2003-2014 the figure has now touched 24.2 bn USD since the Modi government came to power. 52 LoCs worth 14.2 bn USD has been granted since May 2014 and more are in pipeline when King of Jordan and President of Belarus visits Delhi later this year.

While correcting malpractices that had crept into India’s African endeavours, New Delhi had completed 20 major ventures in the past two years, official sources told ET. The focus under LoC extended through MEA’s Development Partnership Administration (DPA) wing is now on key infrastructure projects and not just capacity building ventures, sources said referring to two such endeavours in Africa – Presidential office in Ghana (symbol of Indo-Ghana friendship) and National Assembly building complex in Gambia.

Such iconic symbols of bilateral partnership have been hallmark of Chinese presence across continents. “This kind of infrastructure projects have political significance and contribute to overall strengthening of bilateral partnership between two countries,” pointed out an expert who has closely followed Chinese infrastructure projects across Asia and Africa. It is a common knowledge that while China dictates type and terms & conditions of projects for which it extends grants, Indian approach is consultative in nature keeping in mind local requirements and sentiments while extending LoC through EXIM Bank.

A non-traditional area where India has extended LoC during the past three years is defence sector. Defence related LoC have been extended to Vietnam (500 mn USD), Bangladesh (500 mn USD), Sri Lanka (100 mn USD) besides Mauritius. India has been receiving requests for supply of defence equipment from friendly countries in SE Asia, Africa and Latin America. Defence related LoC extended by India is expected to grow in the coming years, according to an expert who has followed India’s defence partnerships across regions.

During the past one year alone 13 projects aggregating 925.94 mn USD across 10 countries have been completed under LoC mechanism. “Development Partnership is a key instrument in India’s foreign policy. Extension of LoC on concessional terms is an important component of India’s development cooperation policy in Africa, Asia and Latin America. The surge in LoCs since May 2014 reflects political commitment towards development partnership. LoCs are governed by IDEAS (Indian Development & Economic Assistance Scheme) guidelines which were revised by the Modi government in 2015 and these guidelines will remain applicable till 2019-20. The new guidelines have been able to check malpractices and nepotism in extension and implementation of LoC supported projects particularly in Africa,” pointed out one of the sources quoted above.

New IDEAS guidlines classify LoC recipient countries as per levels of their development and also specify rate of interest of concessional loans depending on income level of countries besides outling oversight mechanism and operational guidelines of LoC. Unlike India Chinese loans are offered at commericial rates and this has pushed certain countries in Asia and Africa into debt trap.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Marten » 24 Jul 2017 17:24

From the PRC perspective:
Simply put, there is only one country that threatens both terrestrial and oceanic supply routes for China!

So, they need to get India to pick one of two options:
1. Join OBOR and enable PRC empire building without interference,
2. Face war, face defeat, and then accept PRC empire building without interference.
----------------------------------------------------
If both the US and USSR were unable to subdue local groups in Afghanistan, and smaller groups in the ME give the world such trouble, have PRC considered the kind of threats that will be posed by local insurgent groups across both Bakistan and the north of India? They will be stretched to their nuts trying to protect their supply routes and assets. A demonstration by a local non state actor would bring this wisdom to Xi and gang!

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby panduranghari » 24 Jul 2017 18:02

chola wrote:]
All three are simply hopeful wishes for the best.

What you are proposing is doing nothing except sitting around hoping the bully kicking at your door trips and falls while refusing to drop the anvil you have hanging over his head.

Just drop the anvil from the second floor and crush his fvcking skull don't wait.


Well you are in all probability Wrong. I do not wish give data proving this, as its available on the PRC Economy thread.

Or you could listen to this https://grantpub.libsyn.com/the-biggest ... s-yet-seen

Or did you check the video AnupMishra ji posted on Bass-Chanos at Vanity Fair?
Last edited by panduranghari on 24 Jul 2017 18:16, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby DrRatnadip » 24 Jul 2017 18:04

http://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2017/ ... 32611.html
Sikkim standoff: India must hold ground in Doka La, save Bhutan from falling into Chinese hands

The recent standoff between India and China over the Doka La area is one of the many tactical attempts by China at a strategic containment of India. Within the larger regional picture, after having made inroads into Pakistan, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Myanmar and Bangladesh, China has now targeted Bhutan which appeared to be the last man standing in the immediate neighbourhood of India. It is not surprising, therefore, that China decided to unilaterally change the status of a disputed tri-junction; a move that is possibly intended to test the strength of India-Bhutan relations as well as to undermine the status of India as a second pole to China in South Asia.
Last edited by DrRatnadip on 24 Jul 2017 19:51, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SwamyG » 24 Jul 2017 18:39

rajpa wrote:this might be a good time for the dalai lama to implore to the tibetans to save their lands from the han. and welcome the indians.

I have always regarded him as useless.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Bart S » 24 Jul 2017 19:09

DrRatnadip wrote:sikkim-standoff-india-must-hold-ground-in-doka-la-save-bhutan-from-falling-into-chinese-hands-3849739.html/amp

Sikkim standoff: India must hold ground in Doka La, save Bhutan from falling into Chinese hands

The recent standoff between India and China over the Doka La area is one of the many tactical attempts by China at a strategic containment of India. Within the larger regional picture, after having made inroads into Pakistan, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Myanmar and Bangladesh, China has now targeted Bhutan which appeared to be the last man standing in the immediate neighbourhood of India. It is not surprising, therefore, that China decided to unilaterally change the status of a disputed tri-junction; a move that is possibly intended to test the strength of India-Bhutan relations as well as to undermine the status of India as a second pole to China in South Asia.


Post the full link please.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Gyan » 24 Jul 2017 19:18

The problem is that USA seems to have conceded space to China in SE Asia, therefore China is strutting around.

In 1962, Korea/s had a very tense border and China had directly fought with USA, inspite thereof they took on India.

I strongly feel India should prepare for a tense winter, stock up on basic equipment like Comms, winter clothing, winter survival equipment, NVDs, AMRs, scopes, snow scooters, artillery fuses and few extra Dhanush Howitzers will not hurt either.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Pulikeshi » 24 Jul 2017 19:35

Couple of random thoughts - alguments welcome: :mrgreen:

  1. By sitting on the disputed territory between Buthan and China over a month - India has already won diplomatically!
  2. If the Chinese start a war they look like dicck's to the rest of the world, if they don't they look like wusses internally by having made this noise publicly (unless its only in the English media and the Chinese media is a whimper.)
  3. Take this for what it is worth - India is blessed with CHIPAK {Please to use this instead of CPEC} - just like 1962 determined India's nuclear goal, this abomination called CHIPAK will enable India to pursue strategic goals while appearing weaker than she really is...
  4. That said, there will be a rethink on PAK as a buffer state - if the CHI becomes biggerly embedded in the PAK! :P
  5. PAK is now the religious ideological enemy and CHI the politico-economic ideological enemy - neither seems to understand how India is going use this to her advantage. This formulation is sheer genius for India with her secular democratic credentials - hence the kujli, but no policy options.
  6. PAK cannot say India is strong - it will mean Islam is weak! CHI cannot say India is strong - it will mean the Palty/Confusionus Harmonium Society is weak! In saying this like the Chinese they will have to believe the two UNTRUTHS that is ONE!
  7. Finally - even if China attacks and gives India a bloody nose, it will only cause another set of actions to be taken by India which are worse for China. The Supreme Leaders of the PLA perhaps are clueless, but hopely Eleven and his gang are not, given the superior mandarian intelligence they supposedly possess!

It is sad to see some rather pathetic behavior in defending India on CCTN -
I am not taking about outright surrender monkeys such as Sourabh Gupta who appears to be a paid henchman for another suplepower!
Indian scholars and reporter who are on Chinese TV need some basic training - the PLA brainwashed Chinese Media is still better trained.

Couple of positional points:
India and Indian supporters need to maintain that China has not settled the border and is therefore the troublemaker.
China has not supported India in NSG, against Hafiz, is building roads through Indian territory in PoK, etc. and is therefore reckless
China has no respect for any laws or treaties - see Indo-Pacific/CSC, how it treats other neighbors - Vietnam, Philippines, Mayanmar, etc.
Last edited by Pulikeshi on 24 Jul 2017 19:45, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Arjun » 24 Jul 2017 19:44

Pulikeshi wrote: India is blessed with CHIPAK {Please to use this instead of CPEC}

Indeed !

Is that why hype on Chabahar has become subdued in recent times ? Perhaps somebody in GOI realized it would be much more fun blowing CHIPAK and $50 Bn to smithereens than look for boring alternatives to the port.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby DrRatnadip » 24 Jul 2017 19:53

http://m.timesofindia.com/india/sikkim- ... 739145.cms

Sikkim stand-off: China hints at Doval-Yang bilateral meet

BEIJING: Amid the Sikkim stand-off, China on Monday hinted that a bilateral meeting between state councillor Yang Jiechi and national security adviser Ajit Doval could take place on the sidelines of a BRICS NSAs' meet here this week.
Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lu Kang, during a briefing, left the door open for talks between Doval and Yang by saying that he cannot confirm it but in the past meetings of BRICS NSAs, the officials have held bilateral meetings.

Future of this stand off depends much on Doval sir's visit to chin..
I think chinese may try to escalate during his visit..

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Hari Seldon » 24 Jul 2017 19:59

Hah, so must for cheeni bluster of "nobtalka unless India withdraws its troops" etc. Lol.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby kancha » 24 Jul 2017 20:05

SwamyG wrote:If I am not mistaken, Harpreet is a BRFite. What I earlier said, Indian Ocean is called for nothing the Indian Ocean.


That would be me. Put out some thoughts on the Doklam issue last evening. Nothing that folks here haven't already discussed. Still, this is the text out there in 31 tweets.

Link

Sharing some ramblings on the recent Doklam incident between India and China. Strictly my personal opinions.
The current world order is a result of two devastating world wars in which the stakeholders threw in all that they had in terms of men and material. Each of these wars was a mighty bloody affair. And then came the spoils which the victors claimed for themselves, and their lackeys, be it permanent seats at the UNSC, P-5 Status, NSG, IMF .. and the works. Even a break up of the Soviet Union wasn't sufficient to change this world order, though it 'hobbled' a bit for sure. What is happening now is the rise of China which is a possible catalyst for a recalibration of the current world order. I call it a recalibration 'coz China is still already at the high table of the UNSC / P-5 / NSG etc. This recalibration involves displacement of the West as the foremost military as well as economic power in the world. Utterances about G-2 notwithstanding, the Middle Kingdom aims to stand alone with the rest of the world under its thumb. It is here that geography might end up putting a spanner in the PRC's works. More specifically, the neighbourhood it gave to itself after the invasion of Tibet soon after formation of the PRC. Here's a tweet from Feb 2012 (QUOTED TWEET: “Did China and India ever share a common political border before 1950?”).
Now with India and China together ascendant at the same time after a long while, along with a shared boundary too, friction is bound to occur as both jostle for the same geopolitical space atleast in the neighbourhood for the time being, neighbourhood that extends from Japan to Iran / Afg. Given the history of 1962 as also 1967 & 1986, mutual trust is at a premium. Then there is the question of gap in relative military capabilities which India is working hard to bridge. Recently cleared acquisitions (QUOTED TWEET : “Anatomy of China land disputes-Claim others' land,settles for partial gains. India is only 1 actually claiming land occu by China #AksaiChin”) will start arriving in the next couple of years - Rafale, LCA, Dhanush, Vikrant and the works. Point is, the window for 'Showing India its Place' once again, is closing rapidly. A conscription based PLA army which turns over bulk of its troops every 3-4 years vs a well bloodied, all volunteer Indian Army with new acquisitions coming online soon will be an 'interesting' match to witness. That Doklam is strategically important enough to be denied to the PLA is not in doubt. But for all the hoopla around it Chinese access to Doklam is still via the Chumbi Valley that only narrows down close to Doklam. Not going into tactical aspects out here, but what I personally feel is that Doklam might just have been a 'probe' to gauge Indian reactions, pending further course of action. This time round own folks handled the situation fantastically, both at political as well as military levels.
But it hasn't played out fully as yet, despite going away from media glare fore time being. In any case, given the current monsoon season, nothing much could have been done militarily by either side. Let the monsoons finish, say from Sep onwards before we can safely say that the current stand-off is truly over. Weather does play a big role out here - 1962 happened in Oct-Nov, 1967 in Aug-Oct & 1986 again in the same time period. Keep the gunpowder dry till then. Alternatively, this Doklam thing could merely be a diversionary tactic, with real intentions lying elsewhere, say in Mana / Badrinath / Kedarnath and thereabouts. Point is, if the PRC really wants to insure its rise WITHOUT India challenging it, a visible military engagement with a visible victory is essential for the PLA. And the window for that, if not already closed, is closing rapidly. Same goes for us, as we look for a seat at the high table of the UNSC / NSG etc. Bottomline is that no one will just give it to you if you are a good boy .. they earned it after catastrophic events -world wars, nukes cold war etc. To think that they will just make space for India at the table is being utopian. To this effect, a military clash with China, ending on terms favourable to us, may not be a very bad idea. PRC knows too!
JMTs / Rambles. Take it FWIW. :Fini:

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby pankajs » 24 Jul 2017 20:32

Interesting nuggets IF true but I, with my limited knowledge, was able to spot a few errors too.
http://www.scmp.com/week-asia/geopoliti ... doff-china
Dispatch from Doklam: Indians dig in for the long haul in standoff with China
As I travel up from eastern India’s Bagdogra airport to Gangtok and then to Indian army’s Nathang base near the fraught Doklam area [If the Chinese are allowed to settle at Doka La plateau and if they somehow gain control of the Doka La pass during war Nathang valley will come under the direct fire of the Chinese guns. I am novice here but that is how it looked to me the last time I looked at the map. This valley access is used to supply a lot of forward posts. That is one way to cut off Sikkim and roll down into the Chickens neck.], I count at least six military convoys heading in the direction of Sikkim’s border with China.

At Nathang, a few kilometres from Doklam in the now-famous “tri-junction” of Tibet, Bhutan’s Doklam plateau and Sikkim’s Chumbi valley [I was under the impression that the valley under the Chinese control was called Chumbi.], the theatre of the o ngoing stand-off between Indian and Chinese forces , the build-up is even more palpable, even though vehicles carrying artillery pieces and light tanks slither through the night to avoid public attention.

New bunkers are being built, the ground is being mined to pre-empt Chinese attack, machine-gun nests are being placed at strategic points, and soldiers are performing battle drills at least twice a day. But restraint is still the buzzword.

“We are under clear orders not to exacerbate the tensions, so we won’t provoke a scuffle, certainly not a firefight, but we are ready for a suitable response if the Chinese get aggressive,” says a young captain of India’s famous “Black Cats” division at Nathang. The cheerful-looking captain, in his late 20s, can’t be named as he is not authorised to speak to the media. The media isn’t even supposed to be here. The Indian Army isn’t embedding reporters as yet.

Nathang serves as a base to reinforce India’s forward outpost of Lalten in the tri-junction. Lalten is located in higher ground that gives the Indians a clear view of the Chinese movements in Tibet’s Yadong zone [Doka La too seems to be at a higher elevation than the plateau that under dispute. We should have a clear field of fire] that is part of the Chumbi Valley between Indian and Bhutanese hill territory. This part of the Chumbi Valley, at a height of 3,000 metres (9,800 ft) is likened to a broad dagger aimed at the so-called “Chicken’s Neck”, a narrow corridor that connects Indian mainland to its remote Northeast.

India is paranoid about the Chicken’s Neck for its potential vulnerability. But this is also where the Indian army has terrain and tactical advantages of higher ground and a clear vantage point in the event of a border clash. “It’s important for us to stop the Chinese here because if we fail, they will roll on to the Chicken’s Neck and can cut off our northeast,” says the captain.

At Lalten, says a lieutenant colonel, the Chinese troops crossed into Indian-held ground in June and smashed two bunkers built by the Black Cats. “We restrained our troops with some difficulty, we ensured nobody fired but we finally pushed back the Chinese physically.”

The captain says the Indian army is determined to stop construction of the C40 road (capable of carrying a 40-tonne load) that the Chinese have been trying to build through Bhutan’s Doklam plateau from Yadong to connect to the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) forward post opposite Lalten.

Under its treaty obligations to Bhutan, India must come to the Buddhist kingdom’s aid in times of military need, and the Chinese efforts to build the road in this undemarcated region was seen as such a provocation. Bhutan joined India in boycotting May’s Belt and Road Summit in Beijing, which is said to have provoked China. Indian analysts believe the Chinese decided to start building the C40 road through Doklam after the summit to test India’s special relations with Bhutan [Also Indian resolve for more serious provocation they might have in mind. Also as a gauge to measure Indian resolve wrt CPEC.].

They are trying to show Bhutan who calls the shots in the Himalayas. So we have to ensure we are capable of defending Bhutan’s territorial integrity,” says Maj-Gen Gaganjit Singh, who commanded a division in India’s Northeast before retiring as the deputy chief of the Defence Intelligence Agency (DIA). “We have to prove we can defend Bhutan and we are determined not to lose the current terrain and tactical advantage we have in Chumbi Valley.”

Chumbi Valley is among the few areas in India’s Sikkim state – adjoining the theatre of conflict – in the 3,500km-long disputed border between India and China.

After jettisoning its traditional, defensive “just-hold-the-border” strategy, India has spent the last four years raising a mountain strike corps of about 80,000 for a new limited offensive doctrine in the event of a war.

“That worries the Chinese PLA, now that we have better infrastructure and a much better strategic airlift capability, with many advance landing grounds in the Himalayas for the newly inducted giant US-built transport aircrafts to operate from,” says Maj-General Apurba Bardalai, who has commanded the Indian Military Training Team in Bhutan and brigade formations in India’s northeast. “With every passing day, we are closing the gap with the Chinese in terms of capabilities.”

And that is exactly what may be fueling the hostilities. “Failing to build the road will undermine the PLA’s domination strategy in the disputed Himalayan border. It will pour water over Chinese attempts to draw Bhutan into its fold by undermining its special relations with India,” says Subir Dutta, a former Intelligence Bureau officer specialising in China.

India has called for resolving the issue through dialogue, but China insists the Indian army must pull back first. “But the moment we vacate our forward posts, the Chinese will build the road through Bhutanese territory. We can’t allow that,” says a brigadier at the Black Cats headquarters.

With so much at stake on both sides, a resolution is unlikely anytime soon. At least that’s what the Black Cats think. “We would love peace to return. We want normal relations with the Chinese in maintaining tranquillity on the border. But we are digging in for a long haul because there’s no let-up in the aggression on the other side,” says the brigadier, who also cannot be identified.

As I am speaking with the brigadier in a tent, the buzz of activity seems to be picking up outside. Soldiers constructing bunkers and building other fortifications try to complete their assignment, racing against time as the sun sets on a cloudy day. “Speed up guys,” barks an officer supervising the construction.

“We don’t want war, but we are prepared for it and this is not 1962. Diplomacy should work and normal relations should be restored, but we are not going to be cowed down by threats,” the brigadier says.

China conducted military exercises in Tibet just after the Doklam stand-off began and its official media has threatened teaching a lesson to the Indian army if it doesn’t pull back from Bhutanese territory.

“But those are routine exercises, so we are not perturbed,” says the brigadier. “We are not leaving Bhutan to its fate, come what may.”

Bhutanese graziers at Jigme Kesar nature reserve just behind the Doklam plateau, however, don’t seem to mind being left alone. “We don’t want war between two large armies like India and China. That won’t be good for Bhutan,” says grazier Pema Namgyal.

Fellow graziers nodded furiously in agreement.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Iyersan » 24 Jul 2017 21:26

Time for a second lesson for forgetful India
http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1057817.shtml


The public's patience is running short with India's Doklam transgression. Nothing can stand in the way of China's and Chinese people's dignity. No government in the world can stand still doing nothing while its borders are being violated.

As India continues down this intransigent path, perhaps it is time that it be taught a second lesson. Their troops in Doklam could either withdraw voluntarily, be captured or may be killed when border disputes escalate, Liu Youfa, China's former consul general in Mumbai, made the above comments in an appearance on CGTN.

As always, India's logic of reasoning on this matter is as feeble as its troops on the ground. India's position is that Doklam is territory in dispute between China and Bhutan, and it has been invited there by Bhutan, its protectorate state. Furthermore, it claims China's road construction in Doklam poses a strategic threat to the "chicken's neck," referring to the 27-kilometer-wide Siliguri Corridor to the south of Doklam that connects the northeastern part of India with the rest of the country.

Chicken's neck or giraffe's neck, who cares? Why would a peaceful China care about the road condition in another country when its only purpose is to improve its own road conditions?

This road in Doklam has been there for at least a decade under firm Chinese administration, and this time China is merely trying to do some asphalt patching work in order to facilitate better logistics support to its border posts. That a public infrastructure project in one country can be viewed as a strategic threat to another, and worse yet be used as an excuse warranting an invasion, is unprecedented in recent human history.

But the Indians have misunderstood their audience. China is no Sikkim or Bhutan, where India's hegemonic tactics have worked. We wouldn't have the patience to listen to that kind of wanton robber logic.

No matter what vassalage relationship India maintains with Bhutan, it baffles this author that India has the courage to transgress another country on its behalf. And in this case, Indian troops even entered into Doklam from the China-Sikkim border. Well, if this kind of logic holds, a third country can certainly enter into Kashmir, including India-controlled Kashmir, upon Pakistan's invitation. (This is not a far-fetched idea.)

Now let's also bear in mind that India has a history of harboring the Dalai Lama in Dharamsala as a strategic counter-China ploy. Underneath the Dalai Lama's façade of peace, there lies a trace of violence at least half a century old. Immediately after he fled to India in 1959, the Dalai Lama became the CIA's henchman in engaging in a terrorist guerrilla war on China.

In more recent years, the Tibetan Youth Congress, the armed wing of the Dalai Lama's regime, instigated several violent riots and is responsible for several terrorist bombings in China. In a way, India is actively harboring terrorism against the Chinese.

To such an unruly neighbor, China should reciprocate in a language that India can understand. The famous or infamous India bravado is never backed up by substance in its history with China. If memory is short on the Indian side, perhaps there should be a second lesson. China is embarking on a historic mission to be a peaceful, prosperous and powerful nation as it has been in history. It can't afford to be constantly distracted by border skirmishes with India.

The author is a professor at the University of International Business and Economics. johngong@gmail.com

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Iyersan » 24 Jul 2017 21:29

Doval visit won’t sway China over border standoff
http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1057851.shtml
India's National Security Adviser Ajit Doval is to visit China for the annual BRICS National Security Advisers' meeting this week. As Doval is believed to be one of the main schemers behind the current border standoff between Chinese and Indian troops, the Indian media is pinning high hopes on the trip to settle the ongoing dispute.

Beijing is firm that India's withdrawal from Chinese territory is a precondition and a basis for any meaningful dialogue between the two sides. The Chinese side will not talk with India on the issue before the Indian troops' unconditional withdrawal from Chinese territory. New Delhi should give up its illusions, and Doval's Beijing visit is most certainly not an opportunity to settle the standoff in accordance with India's will.

The BRICS National Security Advisers' meeting is a routine conference held in preparation for the BRICS summit, and is not a platform to address Sino-Indian border skirmishes.

Doval will inevitably be disappointed if he attempts to bargain with Beijing over the border disputes. India's unconditional withdrawal is China's bottom line. The Chinese government's strong determination requesting Indian troop's withdrawal is backed by all Chinese people who are firm that we can't lose one inch of Chinese territory.

Indian media outlets are exploring "dignified" ways to pull back its troops. We believe that if India complies with international laws, then the withdrawal will display dignity. Beijing has no obligation to coordinate with New Delhi to withdraw its troops or suspend its road construction.

India is wrong by brazenly crossing the Sino-Indian border in the Sikkim sector, and must correct its mistakes. China will neither jeer nor express gratitude for India's retreat.

New Delhi must give up all its illusions. People's Liberation Army (PLA) forces are being deployed to the border area, and will take effective countermeasures if India refuses to pull back voluntarily. The PLA is capable enough to take actions that neither Indian troops nor the government can afford.

We don't believe India is willing and determined to have an all-out military showdown with China. If it chooses this path, Beijing will fight to the end to safeguard its territory and resist being deterred or hijacked by any force. New Delhi will have to pay a heavy price.

India's voluntary withdrawal will incur the least cost to it. If Beijing takes countermeasures, New Delhi will be mired in a more passive political and military situation, and face its most serious strategic setback since 1962.

China's GDP is five times and its defense budget four times that of India's, but this is not the only source of our strength. Justice is on China's side, and Beijing is righteous and resolute to require New Delhi to unconditionally withdraw its troops.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Marten » 24 Jul 2017 22:09

kancha wrote:
SwamyG wrote:If I am not mistaken, Harpreet is a BRFite. What I earlier said, Indian Ocean is called for nothing the Indian Ocean.


That would be me. Put out some thoughts on the Doklam issue last evening. Nothing that folks here haven't already discussed. Still, this is the text out there in 31 tweets.

Link

Sharing some ramblings on the recent Doklam incident between India and China. Strictly my personal opinions.
The current world order is a result of two devastating world wars in which the stakeholders threw in all that they had in terms of men and material. Each of these wars was a mighty bloody affair. And then came the spoils which the victors claimed for themselves, and their lackeys, be it permanent seats at the UNSC, P-5 Status, NSG, IMF .. and the works. Even a break up of the Soviet Union wasn't sufficient to change this world order, though it 'hobbled' a bit for sure. What is happening now is the rise of China which is a possible catalyst for a recalibration of the current world order. I call it a recalibration 'coz China is still already at the high table of the UNSC / P-5 / NSG etc. This recalibration involves displacement of the West as the foremost military as well as economic power in the world. Utterances about G-2 notwithstanding, the Middle Kingdom aims to stand alone with the rest of the world under its thumb. It is here that geography might end up putting a spanner in the PRC's works. More specifically, the neighbourhood it gave to itself after the invasion of Tibet soon after formation of the PRC. Here's a tweet from Feb 2012 (QUOTED TWEET: “Did China and India ever share a common political border before 1950?”).
Now with India and China together ascendant at the same time after a long while, along with a shared boundary too, friction is bound to occur as both jostle for the same geopolitical space atleast in the neighbourhood for the time being, neighbourhood that extends from Japan to Iran / Afg. Given the history of 1962 as also 1967 & 1986, mutual trust is at a premium. Then there is the question of gap in relative military capabilities which India is working hard to bridge. Recently cleared acquisitions (QUOTED TWEET : “Anatomy of China land disputes-Claim others' land,settles for partial gains. India is only 1 actually claiming land occu by China #AksaiChin”) will start arriving in the next couple of years - Rafale, LCA, Dhanush, Vikrant and the works. Point is, the window for 'Showing India its Place' once again, is closing rapidly. A conscription based PLA army which turns over bulk of its troops every 3-4 years vs a well bloodied, all volunteer Indian Army with new acquisitions coming online soon will be an 'interesting' match to witness. That Doklam is strategically important enough to be denied to the PLA is not in doubt. But for all the hoopla around it Chinese access to Doklam is still via the Chumbi Valley that only narrows down close to Doklam. Not going into tactical aspects out here, but what I personally feel is that Doklam might just have been a 'probe' to gauge Indian reactions, pending further course of action. This time round own folks handled the situation fantastically, both at political as well as military levels.
But it hasn't played out fully as yet, despite going away from media glare fore time being. In any case, given the current monsoon season, nothing much could have been done militarily by either side. Let the monsoons finish, say from Sep onwards before we can safely say that the current stand-off is truly over. Weather does play a big role out here - 1962 happened in Oct-Nov, 1967 in Aug-Oct & 1986 again in the same time period. Keep the gunpowder dry till then. Alternatively, this Doklam thing could merely be a diversionary tactic, with real intentions lying elsewhere, say in Mana / Badrinath / Kedarnath and thereabouts. Point is, if the PRC really wants to insure its rise WITHOUT India challenging it, a visible military engagement with a visible victory is essential for the PLA. And the window for that, if not already closed, is closing rapidly. Same goes for us, as we look for a seat at the high table of the UNSC / NSG etc. Bottomline is that no one will just give it to you if you are a good boy .. they earned it after catastrophic events -world wars, nukes cold war etc. To think that they will just make space for India at the table is being utopian. To this effect, a military clash with China, ending on terms favourable to us, may not be a very bad idea. PRC knows too!
JMTs / Rambles. Take it FWIW. :Fini:

This was a brilliant read. Take a bow, Sir.

Read it on Twitter but not active due to Co restrictions. Wasn't sure whether to point to you or not (here) . :D

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Deans » 24 Jul 2017 22:21

nam wrote:PLA brigades are not going to have the firepower of US brigades, which has more Apaches than toilet roles and 24/7 grocery by USAF.

So what is the kind of force, the PLA can throw at us? 3-4 battalion sized brigades? 3 brigade division?

It is given that we will not fire the first shot. So PLA will have first comer advantage, which will allow them to strike at their place of choice. So I think it is important for us to understand the force level that will go in to action.

PS: if the Chinese mobilise, we need to make up stories of CFV and strike first, not let them have this advantage of striking at will. We cannot sit and wait for our men to die for some moral grandstanding of "he did it firsst"


The PLA's western theatre command has a total strength of 8 (Infantry, Armoured or Mechanised) divisions and 8 brigades, plus artillery, air defence and other brigades. That force is numerically inferior to the forces of IA's Eastern command plus the divisions that can be deployed in Ladakh, Himachal & UT. However, the numbers the PLA can deploy are not determined by its ORBAT, but by limitations of terrain and their logistics.
There are detailed posts by Shiv on this topic, in a separate thread. To summarise:

There are limited points along the LAC where road links and the terrain can permit a large scale clash. It is difficult for the PLA to deploy large forces there (because of logistics constraints and the threat of massive interdiction from the IAF), yet they would need overwhelming force to dislodge IA divisions defending these areas (who have war-gamed possible PLA threats for decades). The PLA cannot attack the LAC at multiple points just because they decide to operate in brigade rather than division sized units.

The difficulties of the PLA operating at very high altitudes of the Tibet plateau for sustained periods of time and a supply chain stretching back
thousands of miles would present significant challenges for the forces of Western Theatre command in a war situation, let alone trying to being
fresh units from elsewhere in China.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby phillydesi » 24 Jul 2017 22:46

Why is Eleven Gin pinging so hard about dhokla?! Didn't Modiji offer him plenty of the Gujarati treat during his last visit? May be New Delhi can send some fresh dhokla over to Bitching... voila! no more standoffs over dhokla!

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Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Peregrine » 24 Jul 2017 22:58

India's economy to grow faster than China: IMF

NEW DELHI: India will stay ahead of China in growth sweepstakes in 2017 as well as 2018, said the International Monetary Fund (IMF) while retaining the country's GDP forecast at 7.2 per cent for the current fiscal.

According to IMF's World Economic Outlook Update, India's growth is projected to accelerate to 7.7 per cent in 2018-19, from 7.2 per cent forecast for 2017-18.

While the IMF has retained India's growth estimate as provided in the World Economic Outlook (WEO) in April, in the case of China, the forecast has been marginally raised to 6.7 per cent in 2017 and 6.4 per cent in 2018 from earlier projections.

India, however will continue to grow faster than China in 2017 as well as 2018.

Growth in India , the multilateral agency said, is forecast "to pick up further in 2017 and 2018, in line with the April 2017 forecast.

It added: "While activity slowed following the currency exchange initiative, growth for 2016 -- at 7.1 per cent -- was higher than anticipated due to strong government spending and data revisions that show stronger momentum in the first part of the year."

According to the WEO update, inflation in advanced economies remains subdued and generally below target and has been declining in several emerging economies such as Brazil, India and Russia too.

It further said economic activity in both advanced and emerging and developing economies is forecast to accelerate in 2017 to 2 per cent and 4.6 per cent, respectively, with global growth projected to be 3.5 per cent, unchanged from the April forecast.

Indian economy grew 7.1 per cent in 2016-17.

The IMF further said that with a pick-up in global trade and strengthening domestic demand, growth in the ASEAN-5 economies is projected to remain robust at around 5 per cent.

Cheers Image

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby SwamyG » 24 Jul 2017 23:01

Kancha, thanks. I read that on the twitter as well.

My prediction is that both Modi & Doval would be telling China that the World is big enough for both China and India; and that the countries do not have to be at loggerheads.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby UlanBatori » 24 Jul 2017 23:04

Is this bijnej of blocking a road any more effective than a "bandh" or "hartal" and blocking KSRTC buses? Is India going to station troops in the middle of the road forever? It appears to me that without a rollback of PLA, the situation is unsustainable for India. Then why all the Chinese shrillness? Are they preparing their people for war, or are they in high dudgeon because they are the ones caught in an unsustainable position? I am confused.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Varoon Shekhar » 24 Jul 2017 23:06

Nice article about India's growth. But wasn't there a report a month or two back stating that India's growth rate is not as high as was thought? This piece suggests that India is the fastest growing economy, or no?

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby Varoon Shekhar » 24 Jul 2017 23:07

India is, going by the dismissive article, the second fastest , not the fastest

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby yensoy » 24 Jul 2017 23:16

Iyersan wrote:Time for a second lesson for forgetful India
http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1057817.shtml
...
No matter what vassalage relationship India maintains with Bhutan, it baffles this author that India has the courage to transgress another country on its behalf. And in this case, Indian troops even entered into Doklam from the China-Sikkim border. Well, if this kind of logic holds, a third country can certainly enter into Kashmir, including India-controlled Kashmir, upon Pakistan's invitation. (This is not a far-fetched idea.)
...
The author is a professor at the University of International Business and Economics. johngong@gmail.com


Oh please do come to Kashmir. We don't take shelter under all sorts of niceties there ("no bullet has been fired in 30 years"), so you will get to enjoy first-hand the heat of 105mm shells and ATGMs. If you're lucky, you might also get to "embrace martyrdom" with your chelas.

Idiot "professor" using an illegal instrument of communication (gmail). And they don't see the irony in it.

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby g.sarkar » 24 Jul 2017 23:19

http://www.latimes.com/world/la-fg-chin ... story.html
Doklam standoff: China sends a warning to India over border dispute
Associated Press
The Chinese military Monday asked India not to harbor any “illusions” about its resolve to protect China’s sovereignty, the latest warning to come from Beijing on the Doklam border standoff that is in its second month.
The People’s Liberation Army, the world’s largest armed force, said its capability to protect China’s territory was “indomitable” and it was ready to step up deployment on the plateau, which is close to India’s northeastern state of Sikkim.
“The willingness and resolve of China to defend its sovereignty is indomitable and we will safeguard our sovereignty whatever the cost,” defense ministry spokesman and deputy director-general of information Col. Wu Qian said in response to a question on the border row on Monday.
“Shaking a mountain is easy but shaking the People’s Liberation Army is hard,” he said, adding Chinese troops had undertaken emergency response measures and would step up deployment and drills in the area.
“The Chinese border troops have undertaken emergency response measures in the area and will further step up deployment and training in response to this situation,” Wu said.
.....

Finally Khan papers are waking up.
Gautam

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby phillydesi » 24 Jul 2017 23:24

^ the illustrated professor's name is John Gong? So he is a Christian, and possibly a Fallin Gong practitioner? And he uses gmail... trifecta! When is he going to be sent to a reeducation camp and one of his kidneys harvested?

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Re: Managing Chinese Threat (09-08-2014)

Postby nam » 24 Jul 2017 23:30

Deans wrote:
The PLA's western theatre command has a total strength of 8 (Infantry, Armoured or Mechanised) divisions and 8 brigades, plus artillery, air defence and other brigades. That force is numerically inferior to the forces of IA's Eastern command plus the divisions that can be deployed in Ladakh, Himachal & UT. However, the numbers the PLA can deploy are not determined by its ORBAT, but by limitations of terrain and their logistics.
There are detailed posts by Shiv on this topic, in a separate thread. To summarise:



Thanks for the details. For an offensive in to India through the mountains, you need atleast 1:5 ratio. Given that we maintain huge force level, I was interested to know the mass of a potential PLA attack, given that they have been fiddling around with being Chinese copy of "US Brigade Army".

Say if PLA has to launch an offensive against 1 IA division, they need atleast 5 divisions, which is what they sort of did in 62. At this rate the entire Western Theatre Command needs to mobilise, potentially other commands. Mobilisation which could take months. PLA has no option but to commit entire divisions for any meaningful gains.

Even after they mobilise, they all have to come down to South Tibet. Because of the size required, how much reserve can they hold? and where? because they are 100s of miles away from any meaningful human civilisation.

They have to dump fuel and food for large divisions where "not a blade of grass grows"!, because India will hammer their logs links like bridges, trains & fuel dumps. Moreover the Chinese don't have rail links to South Tibet, only road which means most of their logistics would be fuel.. to fuel the trucks carrying fuel & weapons.

This will take months...

The PLA might do a token mobilisation and carryout standoff missile and PGM attacks. If they do, we need to hammer every PLA units on the border with everything we have.


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