Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 06 Dec 2014 17:58

ravi_g wrote:The apology for US arming Pakistan is that France & Russia arm or will arm China. Thus US is friend. But they still have no explanation for why Pakistan gets armed by US.

When the PM met the US President in September, he advised him not to rush the troop withdrawal from Afghanistan. And as long as US troops are deployed in Afghanistan, a dribble of aid to Pakistan will continue; its the cost of doing business/annual subscription rate.

With regard to our defence purchases, friend-foe history-future is secondary. The primary concern has to be the core merits of the equipment, high among which ought to be cost-effectiveness. And where at $12bn it was attractive, at $20bn+ plenty of folks are left wondering whether the Rafale deal is worth it.

If its not being bought for exports (zero sales by Dassault after 14 yrs of operation, good luck HAL) and not being bought to penetrate China's airspace, then additional Su-30MKIs and Tejas' would more than suffice in the same role until the FGFA entered service.

I expect Mig 29 upgrades to get phased out faster than Mirage upgrades and only later does the Rafale begins to go out as the AMCA production peaks.

The Rafale will remain in service long after the AMCA production ends. We'll probably be the only country in the world (aside from Brazil) operating a 4.5 gen fighter in 2055.

abhik · Post by **abhik** » 06 Dec 2014 18:53

dinesha wrote:
Saurav Jha ‏@SJha1618
Okay the French Defence Minister is on record saying that HAL could export Indian built Rafales. I think this deal is happening.

If we fall for this we would be the biggest suckers in the world.

abhik · Post by **abhik** » 06 Dec 2014 19:06

Everybody who is not us is an enemy.

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 06 Dec 2014 20:25

The export point is rather moot. As mentioned by Viv, Dassault has itself over the entire life of the aircraft only managed 1 sale that has yet to conclude. This is with their relationships that go back decades, with a proven track record as a supplier, the french defense industry and MIC supporting them, their marketing and of course the fact that a 4.5 generation fighter would look the most attractive in 4th and 4.5 generation timelines. Knowing this, its rather smart for Dassault to go ahead and give HAL authority to export and find a customer that took it so hard to find. But needless to say around the 2030's when an Indian built HAL may be open for export, Dassault itself would be marketing something totally different such as a stealthy aircraft which it would most likely claim is absolutely necessary for the threats of the future. Its not like Dassault is planning to seize to be an airframe exporter in the long run. At least not by design anyways!

The Rafale will remain in service long after the AMCA production ends. We'll probably be the only country in the world (aside from Brazil) operating a 4.5 gen fighter in 2055.

Given an 8000 hour airframe life and a nominal 1000-1500 hour life extension (probably on the conservative side) a Rafale delivered from HAL's line in the mid 2020's, would be operational till 2055 given 300 hours per year of utilization. I think HAL's production for the IAF would extend beyond 2025 so it wouldn't be surprising to see the Rafale still in usage till perhaps even 2060, unless the IAF decides to retire the type prematurely which i seriously doubt any air force would want to do.

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 06 Dec 2014 20:28

Marten wrote:This is a surprise. So you're saying Russia and France are in a state of war? LoL.

In case you missed this:

Gorbachev says world is on brink of new Cold War

Mikhail Gorbachev warned in a speech in Berlin on Saturday that East-West tensions over the Ukraine crisis were threatening to push the world into a new Cold War, 25 years after the fall of the Berlin Wall.

Gorbachev, who is credited with forging a rapprochement with the West that led to the demise of communist regimes across Eastern Europe, accused the West, and the United States in particular, of not fulfilling their promises after 1989.

"The world is on the brink of a new Cold War. Some say that it has already begun," said Gorbachev, who is feted in Germany for his pivotal role in helping create the conditions for the Berlin Wall's peaceful opening on Nov. 9, 1989, heralding the end of the Cold War.

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 06 Dec 2014 20:39

Viv S wrote:The leverage that the Chinese can bring to bear on the other hand is very real.

So, you quote an article from 2004, knowing that there is an EU arms embargo, which in the current state of relations between the West and China, has no chance of being lifted. 10 years have passed since that article was written, and the embargo is still in place.

Anyway, the past and future President of France appears to be quite immune from this supposed "leverage":

http://static.lexpress.fr/medias_660/w_ ... 338266.jpg

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 06 Dec 2014 21:03

abhik wrote:Everybody who is not us is an enemy.

We have met the enemy and he is us

http://lh5.ggpht.com/_5XvBYfxU_dM/TbGYr ... imgmax=800

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 06 Dec 2014 22:12

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/n ... s-deported

Read for yourself

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 06 Dec 2014 23:02

France deployed its Rafale's to Poland in addition to the typhoons, Mig-29's and F-16's that are part of the Baltic Air policing. What are they policing (threat?), A possible flight of J-20's coming in from china? Al Qaeda? What are they upping this policing and who is the primary threat that the rafale, typhoon, fulcrum and the viper are there to police? There is heightened alert in eastern european NATO partners and NATO members across the board have responded to up their activities in the eastern border of the alliance. The economic agreement that triggered off the crisis, was not between Obama and Ukraine but between the EU (last I checked France was still an EU member state) and Ukraine. No one explicitly state that the cold war is imminent or has indeed begun, however there is heightened tension due to the recent chain of events and the stakeholders are Russia, Ukraine, EU, USA, and particularly the eastern european NATO states. As such NATO is beefing up its activities on the eastern border to reassure its members there. The EU has slapped economic sanctions on Russia, and are likely to do so again, if the situation takes a turn for the worst. Under such circumstanses it would be inappropriate for France, USA, UK, Germany to turn around and go through on a multi-billion dollar defense deal with Russia when it is simultaneously spending money from its pocket to beef up NATO due to the heightened activity in its eastern flank. Of course the French would and should reverse the decision if they think appropriate measures have been taken by Russia to satisfy their own internal fears..and this is essentially what they are doing i.e. putting a condition on the deal..They will obviously be liable to any penalties agreed upon for either delay or outright cancellation, and they would most likely pay those as well. At the end of the day, those penalties are put in place to protect for these sort of situations. France does through the penalties and cancellation charges has a "get out clause".

Having said that, I seriously doubt that this has any sort of harm to France's relationship with India and the fear that this may happen to India are ill founded.

http://www.janes.com/article/37253/nato ... ion-begins

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 06 Dec 2014 23:59

Depends upon how you characters the relationship vis-a-vis this deal. If indeed you are getting TOT as was the plan, after france finishes up delivering its obligation the process shifts to technology absorption. One would assume that as the Rafale production in India picks up in pace, given the TOT being touted the reliance on Dassault would reduce proportionally. So yes, ideally you would want a strong (er) clause, but it must be reasonable given the nature of the deal. I'd rather focus it on TOT obligations since that is more important to actually produce the rafale..Anyhow, those negotiating the deal would no doubt pay attention to these things. One would hope so anyway.

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 07 Dec 2014 00:32

There isn't going to be an "act of war". If you are in search of one, you won't find any. The current chain events have escalated tensions, and has place the eastern NATO border in heightened alert both from those members that make up the eastern NATO boundary as well as those that contribute in policing it. There is absolutely no reason for Hollande or anyone else to go and meet with Putin or other Russian power players to bring these tensions back down to the historic levels. So yes, France can engage in a discussion with Russia, yet at the same time it can also be a part of the broader EU economic sanctions. Germany will do the same.

Official after official on both sides have resisted the "cold war" nomenclature while discussing the current level of tensions. The article says:

Hollande is on his way home from a visit to Kazakhstan, a day after vowing to work towards a "de-escalation" of the crisis, which plunged relations between Moscow and the West to a post-Cold War low as fighting between Kiev's forces and pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine has caused more than 4,300 deaths.

Thats about the level most would characterize it. Most in power would resist calling this an act of war (since that is a technicality) or even claiming that this is the beginning of another "cold war". The fallout of all this could eventually lead to another cold war but it is quite unlikely in my opinion.

For some France would only be "unreliable" if they do not deliver the Ships to russia, yet for some it by holding the ships hostage is unreliable..It all depends upon who you ask

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 07 Dec 2014 00:42

^^^^
Marten, the reality is that France would dearly love to deliver those ships to Russia, bank the cash, and forget about the contract. Unfortunately for France, life is not nearly so simple. France is a member of NATO and EU, which also include Poland, Romania, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, among others, who have a visceral fear of Russian aggression. France will become a pariah within EU and NATO (leave aside the impact on its relationships with the US, Germany and the UK) if it delivers these ships to Russia under current circumstances. $70/bbl oil and USD/RUB at 53 (from 33 one year ago) are probably giving Putin nightmares, but he is showing no signs (as yet) of retreating from his ambition of creating Novorossiya. There are lawyers in France working on the Force Majeure clause and how the arbitration courts may interpret it. Russia may or may not get her money back, let alone damages; but in current circumstances, she certainly won't be receiving any Mistral ships.

The IAF Rafale and Mirage 2000 fleet will be hugely reliant on Dassault, Snecma, Thales, MBDA, etc for support for decades to come, just as the Su-30MKI fleet is hugely reliant on various Russian suppliers, and the C-17 and C-130 fleet are on US suppliers. If we put our relations with these countries into jeopardy in the manner of Russia's relations with the West, the reality is we will impair our war fighting capability.

VijayN · Post by **VijayN** » 07 Dec 2014 00:53

eklavya wrote:^^^^
Marten, the reality is that France would dearly love to deliver those ships to Russia, bank the cash, and forget about the contract. Unfortunately for France, life is not nearly so simple. France is a member of NATO and EU, which also include Poland, Romania, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, among others, who have a visceral fear of Russian aggression. France will become a pariah within EU and NATO (leave aside the impact on its relationships with the US, Germany and the UK) if it delivers these ships to Russia under current circumstances. $70/bbl oil and USD/RUB at 53 (from 33 one year ago) are probably giving Putin nightmares, but he is showing no signs (as yet) of retreating from his ambition of creating Novorossiya. There are lawyers in France working on the Force Majeure clause and how the arbitration courts may interpret it. Russia may or may not get her money back, let alone damages; but in current circumstances, she certainly won't be receiving any Mistral ships.

The IAF Rafale and Mirage 2000 fleet will be hugely reliant on Dassault, Snecma, Thales, MBDA, etc for support for decades to come, just as the Su-30MKI fleet is hugely reliant on various Russian suppliers, and the C-17 and C-130 fleet are on US suppliers. If we put our relations with these countries into jeopardy in the manner of Russia's relations with the West, the reality is we will impair our war fighting capability.

Your points are valid w.r.t India being reliant on foreign suppliers and impairing our overall capability. This sadly is the case, and surely reflective of how it affects our foreign policy. Anyways, here is some additional insight from the Putin Hollande meeting. Politics is like our chamak challo songs, it changes every step of the way.

http://uk.sputniknews.com/world/2014120 ... 80026.html

France’s handling of the Mistral contract with Russia is not helping its image of a reliable commercial partner. The delivery of the two Mistral warships has been delayed several times under the pretext of Russia’s alleged involvement in Ukraine, and the latest from the French Defence Minister was that the ships may not be delivered at all. The breach of contract would cost France EUR 3 billion in damages and thousands of jobs.

The Mistral saga is being closely watched by India which also has a contract with France – for the delivery of 126 Rafale combat jets to the tune of $15 billion.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 07 Dec 2014 03:40

The Mistral saga is being closely watched by India which also has a contract with France – for the delivery of 126 Rafale combat jets to the tune of $15 billion.

The Rafale is supposed to be made in India. Are some critical parts still sourced from france? And, if so, could they not be replaced over time (just curious)?

Having said that I would not worry about the France-Russia deal.

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 07 Dec 2014 05:58

NRao wrote:
The Mistral saga is being closely watched by India which also has a contract with France – for the delivery of 126 Rafale combat jets to the tune of $15 billion.
The Rafale is supposed to be made in India. Are some critical parts still sourced from france? And, if so, could they not be replaced over time (just curious)?

Having said that I would not worry about the France-Russia deal.

Four Mistrales . Two built in France with 40% Russian components by value. Two thirds by weight: the rear 70% form Russia and the from France

The big point here is that even France is subject to US pressure on delivery.

In which case what is the difference between dealing with US vs. France?

rohitvats · Post by **rohitvats** » 07 Dec 2014 12:16

MODERATOR NOTE: Stick to Rafale and MMRCA

RKumar · Post by **RKumar** » 07 Dec 2014 14:59

My understanding is that India will be getting "Rafale Tranche 4", can anyone confirm it?

Does anyone guess the number breakdown of Rafale B and C?

Any suggestions/guess for the the weapons and equipment package?

nash · Post by **nash** » 07 Dec 2014 17:10

Saurav Jha
‏@SJha1618
Okay the French Defence Minister is on record saying that HAL could export Indian built Rafales. I think this deal is happening.

If above one is the recent development then only signature is required to done this deal.

Victor · Post by **Victor** » 07 Dec 2014 19:54

pandyan wrote:so, now HAL manufacturing process and quality is good after two years of chai-biskoot?

The reports say that now 70% will be made in India and 30% in France instead of 100% in India. So the chai-biskoot has resulted in the Rafale deliveries being fast-tracked by bypassing HAL for the 30% that Dassault was worried about. Over time, the India/HAL share may increase. Good move by Parrikar but goodbye 'full ToT' for now. Costs reduced accordingly. That's how I read it.

Thakur_B · Post by **Thakur_B** » 07 Dec 2014 20:02

Le Journal de l'Aviation

:: Actualités aéronautique :: Le futur Rafale indien exportable ?
Dimanche 07 décembre 2014

Article publié le 04/12/2014 à 17h58 | Romain Guillot | 132 mots

Alors que le contrat des futurs Rafale destinés à l’Inde est toujours en cours de négociation, le ministre français de la Défense a indiqué à la presse indienne le 2 décembre qu’ Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) pourrait à son tour exporter l’appareil qui sera produit sous licence.

Selon Jean-Yves Le Drian, « HAL possèdera la technologie complète et la licence pour fabriquer des appareils supplémentaires qui, en outre, pourraient être exportés ».

Copyright ©2014 Le Journal de l'Aviation - Un site du Groupe AEROCONTACT

- See more at: http://www.journal-aviation.com/actuali ... aX1jy.dpuf

Translation:

The Journal of Aviation

:: News :: The future aviation exportable Indian Rafale?
Sunday, December 7, 2014

Article published on 12/04/2014 at 17:58 | Romain Guillot | 132 words

While the contract for future Rafale India is still being negotiated, the French defense minister told the Indian press on December 2 that Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) could in turn export the device which will be produced under license.

According to Jean-Yves Le Drian, "HAL possess the complete technology and license to manufacture additional devices which, moreover, could be exported."

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 07 Dec 2014 20:15

Why would any one buy Rafale from HAL when they can buy from OEM and OEM has all the IP's and manufacturing capability for Rafale.

Essentially what would happen is Dassult would allow HAL to sell Indian made Rafale to make it competitive against its peers but with strings attached and many black boxes coming from Dassault.

Every time HAL build Rafale it will have to pay lic fee along with stuff they import from Dassault

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 07 Dec 2014 20:25

Austin wrote:Why would any one buy Rafale from HAL when they can buy from OEM and OEM has all the IP's and manufacturing capability for Rafale.

Essentially what would happen is Dassult would allow HAL to sell Indian made Rafale to make it competitive against its peers but with strings attached and many black boxes coming from Dassault.

Every time HAL build Rafale it will have to pay lic fee along with stuff they import from Dassault

+1. The HAL Rafale will also cost more. It's a deal made in HA(E)LL

member_23694 · Post by **member_23694** » 07 Dec 2014 20:35

I think allowing export of HAL built Rafale should be considered more as the kind of freedom Dassault is ready to give to India from the contract point of view.
Though real export of HAL built Rafale seems very unlikely unless Reliance has some other plan

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 07 Dec 2014 20:47

Why would any one buy Rafale from HAL when they can buy from OEM and OEM has all the IP's and manufacturing capability for Rafale

Depends upon the timeframe. The french line would require additional orders to sustain it into the 2020's. If these orders do not come from export customers, the french would have to order them themselves. Ultimately they would have to make a call to wind down the production line and move over to other systems such as the Neuron-Taranis offshoots or a dedicated next generation manned platform. The IAF can however sustain its line longer into the 2020's by doing a followup order etc.

Even with that, I don't see much success in this given how hard Dassault (even with its years of experience as a supplier) has found to sell the Rafale at a time when 4.5 generation would be most appealing. In the 2020's, the F-35 production rate would be in the 3 digits per year, the PAKFA production would be in full swing, the Gripen NG would have two lines in two different continents and the Chinese would be producing their stealth jets and aggressively marketing their defense hardware. Not only that, the European OEM's/partners should be looking to pick up export partners for their Next generation of projects. Good luck finding an export customer in that time-frame.

member_28756 · Post by **member_28756** » 07 Dec 2014 21:32

brar_w wrote:
Why would any one buy Rafale from HAL when they can buy from OEM and OEM has all the IP's and manufacturing capability for Rafale
Depends upon the timeframe. The french line would require additional orders to sustain it into the 2020's. If these orders do not come from export customers, the french would have to order them themselves. Ultimately they would have to make a call to wind down the production line and move over to other systems such as the Neuron-Taranis offshoots or a dedicated next generation manned platform. The IAF can however sustain its line longer into the 2020's by doing a followup order etc.

Even with that, I don't see much success in this given how hard Dassault (even with its years of experience as a supplier) has found to sell the Rafale at a time when 4.5 generation would be most appealing. In the 2020's, the F-35 production rate would be in the 3 digits per year, the PAKFA production would be in full swing, the Gripen NG would have two lines in two different continents and the Chinese would be producing their stealth jets and aggressively marketing their defense hardware. Not only that, the European OEM's/partners should be looking to pick up export partners for their Next generation of projects. Good luck finding an export customer in that time-frame.

Well said, and also its very expensive plane which customer would be able to afford the Rafale ? Those customers who can afford it like the UAE or Kuwait will likely be buying F-35 instead.

Liu · Post by **Liu** » 07 Dec 2014 21:33

brar_w wrote:
Why would any one buy Rafale from HAL when they can buy from OEM and OEM has all the IP's and manufacturing capability for Rafale
Depends upon the timeframe. The french line would require additional orders to sustain it into the 2020's. If these orders do not come from export customers, the french would have to order them themselves. Ultimately they would have to make a call to wind down the production line and move over to other systems such as the Neuron-Taranis offshoots or a dedicated next generation manned platform. The IAF can however sustain its line longer into the 2020's by doing a followup order etc.

Even with that, I don't see much success in this given how hard Dassault (even with its years of experience as a supplier) has found to sell the Rafale at a time when 4.5 generation would be most appealing. In the 2020's, the F-35 production rate would be in the 3 digits per year, the PAKFA production would be in full swing, the Gripen NG would have two lines in two different continents and the Chinese would be producing their stealth jets and aggressively marketing their defense hardware. Not only that, the European OEM's/partners should be looking to pick up export partners for their Next generation of projects. Good luck finding an export customer in that time-frame.

any country of EU can not provide enough order to sustain a new bird project ,unless EU were integrated further.that is why UK gave up and France is giving up developing new bird alone...it is simplly not economical. only those countries who has huge demand have motives to develope new bird alone . Any state of EU is not on the list.

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 07 Dec 2014 21:50

any country of EU can not provide enough order to sustain a new bird project ,unless EU were integrated further.

You do not need the whole of EU to pool resources to develop a project. 2 to 4 nations can begin things off as was done in the typhoon. The only problem is that compromises have to be made to encourage participation or else you would end up with 3 distinct fighter projects none of which has the longevity that compares to 5th generation programs.

member_23694 · Post by **member_23694** » 07 Dec 2014 21:56

nd also its very expensive plane which customer would be able to afford the Rafale ?

As long as it meets IAF requirement across current and future adversaries and provides freedom to leverage the learning for our own aerospace industry, it is a job well done. Exports will definitely be a big bonus if at all.
BTW J 20 [all hype] has a very long way to go before it comes any close to Rafale / Typhoon etc.

member_28756 · Post by **member_28756** » 07 Dec 2014 21:58

brar_w wrote:
You do not need the whole of EU to pool resources to develop a project. 2 to 4 nations can begin things off as was done in the typhoon. The only problem is that compromises have to be made to encourage participation or else you would end up with 3 distinct fighter projects none of which has the longevity that compares to 5th generation programs.

And another problem is economically Europe is not doing so well....can't afford to spend billions on these kind of projects when they are cutting back deeply on defense spending.

member_28756 · Post by **member_28756** » 07 Dec 2014 21:59

dhiraj wrote:
nd also its very expensive plane which customer would be able to afford the Rafale ?
As long as it meets IAF requirement across current and future adversaries and provides freedom to leverage the learning for our own aerospace industry, it is a job well done. Exports will definitely be a big bonus if at all.
BTW J 20 [all hype] has a very long way to go before it comes any close to Rafale / Typhoon etc.

I am talking about prospect for export. Obviously the Rafale meets the IAF requirement that goes without saying.

shaun · Post by **shaun** » 07 Dec 2014 22:18

Rafael will definitely fill the numbers and it is a very very potent platform and is more than a match to all the chinese hypes for the foreseeable future. The sad story will be ,if it impacts the procurement of LCA.

member_23694 · Post by **member_23694** » 07 Dec 2014 22:31

The sad story will be ,if it impacts the procurement of LCA.

Ideally LCA (including Tejas MK.2) will not fail. If at all it fails it can only be because of the designer or manufacturer end.

http://tarmak007.blogspot.in/2014/12/ar ... ortly.html

This time it is Navy Chief

LCA Navy delay is a matter of concern: Admiral Dhowan said that the delay in the Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Navy programme has been taken up seriously. “It’s an important programme for us and we have the IAC (Indigenous Aircraft Carrier) in Kochi getting ready and the SBTF (Shore Based Test Facility) waiting for LCA Navy. It’s important that the programme is speeded up,” he said.
He said the Navy was monitoring the progress of the project closely. “We have conveyed our concerns to the agencies concerned. We hope to start the trials of LCA Navy at SBTF at the earliest. The delay has been a cause of concern. We have also conveyed our concern to the Ministry of Defence and the defence production officials,” he said.

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 07 Dec 2014 22:41

LCA Navy must be a separate achievement for the Tejas program.

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 07 Dec 2014 23:35

MANNY K wrote:
brar_w wrote:
You do not need the whole of EU to pool resources to develop a project. 2 to 4 nations can begin things off as was done in the typhoon. The only problem is that compromises have to be made to encourage participation or else you would end up with 3 distinct fighter projects none of which has the longevity that compares to 5th generation programs.
And another problem is economically Europe is not doing so well....can't afford to spend billions on these kind of projects when they are cutting back deeply on defense spending.

The flip side to that is that if the defense exports and production reduce significantly for a nation like France, that would also impact the economy. They would have to do something beyond the Typhoon and Rafale programs (I'll leave Gripen outside this because Sweden is a non nato european nation). Britain, Italy and Spain can afford to delay things because they have the F-35 to fall back upon (Britain can keep piggy backing on the US and partner investments on the F-35 and buy more (even the A) if need be) but France has nothing in the manned space post-rafale. Early days yet but at least they are working towards merging the Taranis and Neuron spin offs into one program. Budgetary pressures would still force them to make a lot of compromises in ambitions just as was done by not pursuing the more costly and risky 5th generation route.

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 08 Dec 2014 05:37

dhiraj wrote:I think allowing export of HAL built Rafale should be considered more as the kind of freedom Dassault is ready to give to India from the contract point of view.
Though real export of HAL built Rafale seems very unlikely unless Reliance has some other plan

They can't sell it. If we think we can sell it at 25% more to overseas users, I have a large bridge I want to sell you cheap.

member_26622 · Post by **member_26622** » 08 Dec 2014 05:58

Forget Rafale, We can't even sell Pilatus trainers as we will never be cost effective as compared to OEM. That is unless we decide to dumb it down using local tech on ket cost items - engine, avionics..think J-11

Sourcing cost to Pilatus or Rafale will be decidedly cheaper than IAF given the quantity or local sourcing factor - one Boeing jet comes at list price, order 25 and discounts are substancial - 25% plus. For same reason - FMS deal with US makes sense because of demand pooling to lower maintenance costs.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 08 Dec 2014 09:52

What is the point in laborious negotiations with OEMs for "reinventing the wheel"? 4+/++ gen tech is already being overtaken by 5th-gen stealth birds and 6th-gen concepts are in the works.A v.careful study should be made as to what really cutting edge tech the West in particular is willing to give us.Barring our missile programmes,and a few JVs like BMos,B-8,etc.,the huge amounts that we will be paying for tech on the downhill curve are questionable esp. if the numbers to be produced be small. Unless the tech being provided endures for at least 2+ decades,before needing upgrades or replacement,How many Rafales do we think will be produced beyond 100 at home? We won't be churning out Rafales as we did with the MIG-21s,building hundreds at home..Imagine therefore how many Rafales it can build ,because of the cost and HAL's production capabilities,which as of now can only build 8 Tejas/yr.

Incidentally JDW in an issue not too long ago had a report on IAF aircraft serviceability.Surprisingly,the MIG-29 % was higher than the M-200,etc.Must locate the same and post details.

kit · Post by **kit** » 08 Dec 2014 10:43

OEMs can negotiate better terms from component manufacturers because their orders are large and usually long term for the entire life cycle of the product .. it is essentially a relationship where both needs to evolve the product and component to stay relevant., as in case of high technology items.Pilatus very nicely got themselves off indicates a quaint business move .. Russians did the same by ensuring HAL produced Sukhois at a premium. If a Rafale has to be produced at a relevant cost its not just HAL but a whole set of local component manufacturers need to be identified and get them to co produce those with the manufacturers abroad ..After all no use producing a super duper plane at an exorbitant cost when you need a good plane in numbers !!..someone already tried that

Victor · Post by **Victor** » 08 Dec 2014 20:29

pandyan wrote:
saar..where is the 70-30 mentioned? is there a link to the article?

is it 70% by $$$ amount or by weight or more like all critical parts will be manufactured in France and 100% assembled in india?

There are many articles if you do a search for Rafale workshare. This has been floated for some time now. Its probably the critical parts requiring inordinate investment in time and money that will be made in France but 100% will be assembled in India. The radar will be made by BEL but some parts will come from France as an example.

srai · Post by **srai** » 08 Dec 2014 21:03

Victor wrote:
pandyan wrote:
saar..where is the 70-30 mentioned? is there a link to the article?

is it 70% by $$$ amount or by weight or more like all critical parts will be manufactured in France and 100% assembled in india?
There are many articles if you do a search for Rafale workshare. This has been floated for some time now. Its probably the critical parts requiring inordinate investment in time and money that will be made in France but 100% will be assembled in India. The radar will be made by BEL but some parts will come from France as an example.

When talking about workshare, we need to look at the Su-30MKI model. Reposting part of my answer posted here. We should expect to see something along these lines:

First lot (18 units [2017-2019]) -> direct from France
Second lot (~18 units [2018-2021]) -> assembled by HAL via CDK supplied from France
Third lot (~28 units [2019-2022]) -> assembled by HAL w/ partial SDK from France and partial SDK from India
Fourth lot (~60 units [2021-2024]) -> assembled by HAL w/ SDK mostly manufactured in India and some indigenous parts/LRUs replacing OEM's; some raw materials could be sourced from OEM (Note: depending on delivery deadlines, ToT transfer rate and technology absorption rate, some parts could still be directly manufactured by OEM)
Fifth lot (follow-on order ~60 units [2024-2027]) -> assembled by HAL w/ SDK mostly manufactured in India and and more indigenous parts/LRUs replacing OEM's; some raw materials could be sourced from OEM (Note: depending on delivery deadlines, ToT transfer rate and technology absorption rate, some parts could still be directly manufactured by OEM)

The percentage workshare will change over time. Each lot will be using a different workshare arrangement.