Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby NRao » 12 Jan 2015 08:42

. .
Last edited by NRao on 12 Jan 2015 09:12, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Indranil » 12 Jan 2015 08:55

Move the F-35 discussion off Rafale and MMRCA thread.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby NRao » 12 Jan 2015 09:10

If Rafale goes thru it will most likely be because we buckled. No way is Dassault or French govt going to accept HAL-based risks without heavy insurance premiums to protect their company. Nobody will. Maybe, as NRao says, the French govt might pick up these premiums. OTOH if neither of these work, Dassault will choose the least bad option and walk out. Try as I might, I simply can't see it any other way but would be very pleased to be proved wrong.


No sane company would do what Dassault has done - just not possible. Dassault *over played their cards* - betting that India has no options. Parrikar called their bluff, when he said we have an adequate option.

On the L1 price: I bet they had built this mark up when they bid with the "L1".

IF true, then the L1 price point projects a loss for Dassault. And, there is no way they can go back from the current asking price. Even if their Government steps in - just no way.

I suspect it is the same thing with the other issue: guaranteeing the end product HAL would produce. They bid knowing they could not carry that risk at that price point.

As I see it, there is at least a difference of $5 billion between the GoI and Dassault. Will or can the Fr gov cover that? Doubt it.

Then I am sure a billion or so to carry the risk of HAL produced products.

I think Dassault made a very bad corporate and commercial decision. Bad for her stock holders.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby pankajs » 12 Jan 2015 10:40

For commonality sake, we could see a mix of Mig29 + MKI replacing the Rafale (in numbers) but the GOI willing to negotiate means we are still *very* interested in Rafale if *reasonable* terms can be worked out.

Mig29 + MKI should be our fallback option just because we already have them in service. It is not only about cost but infra, training, tactics, logistic train, etc. Also the quickest to do.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby uddu » 12 Jan 2015 10:49

Su-30 MKI's and Tejas. The production of Tejas need to be doubled to 30 aircraft per year. The money can go into it.
By 2025 we must have a combination of only four different types of aircraft in service.

Tejas MK-I, II and AMCA
PAK-FA and Su-30 MKI (later can be replaced with AMCA MK-II)

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Philip » 12 Jan 2015 12:28

LCA production cannot keep pace with the demand of aircraft.Even if 200 are produced within 10-15 years,there will still be a shortfall of at least 100-120 aircraft to meet the 40+ sqd. requirement. Another 60-80 MIG-29/35s,which in any case are being upgraded,engines already manufactured here,almost 50 in service/on order for the IN,logistics etc. will be esasier and bring down costs.320MKI/Super Sulhois,120 MIG-29UG/53s,200 LCAs (to replace the MIG-21s mainly) and between anther 240-300 M-2000UGs,Jaguars,etc plus the first few sqds of FGFAs from 2020 onwards will makje up a total of 900+.Extra LCAs can replace retiring Bisons,MIG-27s,later on.

On purely economic terms,the IAF would get far more bang for its buck from the alternatives of 240+ aircraft rather than 120+ Rafales.There would be no loss of capability and the extra numbers of aircraft acquired speak for themselves.As the saying goes,"there's safety in numbers!"

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Pratyush » 12 Jan 2015 12:41

Philip, if the IAF decides today that it will have 500 LCA's by the end of the calendar year 2025. You can rest assured that a way will be found to deliver on that goal.

10 years is a very long time.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Prasad » 12 Jan 2015 12:45

Err who is saying F-35 will be offered to us, if we go and ask the US? Ajay shukla has been going on and on about it but has there been any reasonable noise over it at all.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby pankajs » 12 Jan 2015 12:59

On F-35 it is either that or FGFA, it can't be both. Going by the latest GOI pronouncement on the issue FGFA is still on. With AMCA also in play there is no place for a F-35 even if it were offered.

IMVHO wonlee.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Viv S » 12 Jan 2015 13:00

Philip wrote:LCA production cannot keep pace with the demand of aircraft.Even if 200 are produced within 10-15 years,there will still be a shortfall of at least 100-120 aircraft to meet the 40+ sqd. requirement.


Based on what? The plan thus far was for HAL to operate three production lines simultaneously in 2018 - Tejas, MMRCA, Su-30MKI. There is no technical reason why a second Tejas production line cannot be operational and running at full capacity by 2020, if the requisite capital is sanctioned by the MoD right now. 30 aircraft per year is perfectly doable (CAC is already hitting that mark with the J-10 IIRC). Assuming an additional Mk1 squadron is also ordered, it would take the Tejas fleet to 250 fighters by 2026 (which is when the last Rafale was supposed to be delivered).
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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby karan_mc » 12 Jan 2015 13:04

Parrikar writing a letter to his French counterpart asking where is their Negotiation team and when will it come to India suggests French are not serious and Deal is Gone case .

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby member_20317 » 12 Jan 2015 20:00

From Aroor's site - his tweee feed:

Livefist @livefist
'Rafale deal not certain but problems can be sorted out,' @ManoharParrikar tells Karan Thapar on @HeadlinesToday @ 8pm. #MMRCA

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Cosmo_R » 12 Jan 2015 21:41

Prasad wrote:Err who is saying F-35 will be offered to us, if we go and ask the US? Ajay shukla has been going on and on about it but has there been any reasonable noise over it at all.


"US offers F35JSF to India as India-US Defence Cooperation grows"
http://www.indiastrategic.in/topstories462.htm

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby nirav » 12 Jan 2015 21:49

The only restriction for the Eurofighter to come back in the fray is the all mighty DPP rule which does not allow re negotiation if talks with L1 fail/stall.

The RM has said that the new DPP will be about 25-30 pages long .. how long does it take to shred the old DPP and that specific rule forbidding L2 to come back in the fray ?

As it is, France isnt really sticking to/abiding by the terms of the original RFP. So France must be disqualified if they dont abide and I dont think it should be that big an issue if GOI decides to go with Eurofighter.

More Su-30s would be a panic reaction to the deal with France being called off. If the Sukhois were adequate for the role of MMRCA, we never would have the MMRCA tender in the first place !

That stupid rule that L2 cannot be considered is being made to sound like a patthar ki lakeer, which if breached heavens might fall apart ..

We made that rule and can scrap it whenever we want !

Either Rafale or more Sukhois, does not make sense.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby brar_w » 12 Jan 2015 21:55

Cosmo_R wrote:
Prasad wrote:Err who is saying F-35 will be offered to us, if we go and ask the US? Ajay shukla has been going on and on about it but has there been any reasonable noise over it at all.


"US offers F35JSF to India as India-US Defence Cooperation grows"
http://www.indiastrategic.in/topstories462.htm



Not going to happen. It would be extremely difficult if not outright impossible for the US to agree to offer the JSF as per the MRCA norms and requirements. No current deal of such nature has taken place and the aircraft already has its production line fairly well stacked with orders. Given that the export clearance for sensitive technology was sold to the Pentagon and Congress under the pretext that the users would jointly take care of many of their concerns through working on a collaborative sustainment plan jointly developed through the JPO, it would be surprising to see the aircraft sold in this time frame outside of the currently established JPO model. Even if one such hybrid deal were to be negotiated, the time-frame required for the hurdles to be crossed would be fairly large. I don't see the Indian position changing from the current MRCA technical requirements (TOT, sustainment, local production) nor do I see the Congress and the Pentagon being flexible enough to enact important changes to the way it conducts the program in a relatively short period of time. Therefore, unless the requirements radically change (which would be extremely unusual) there is no chance in hell that the F-35 is a viable solution for the MRCA or a clean sheet program that borrows from the TOT and production model that formed the basis of the MRCA program.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Cosmo_R » 12 Jan 2015 23:36

@brar_w ^^^. The link was merely to point out that LM had offered the JSF a while back. Agree that it would not work under the MMRCA rules.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby member_26622 » 12 Jan 2015 23:56

US is unlikely to do any TOT for 100 odd plane order when they already have 2~3000 orders. Dassault is entertaining us as we will potentially be a larger customer than even France for their Rafale.

That said US should see the strategic value in 'Made in India' for furthering their economic and strategic interests

1. Lowering cost from 100+ million to under 100 million for the program and in process gather 'more' orders (like TATA building cabins for Sikorsky)
2. Lower life time costs by using India as a service base for Middle east and South East asian users - double points and finally
3. Make inroads in to India defense partnership

India wins by
1. Been a service center and actually earning FOREX money on the TOT investment (Italians will cry hoarse and scuttle this)
2. Sporting Stealth jets before China
3. Fast tracking our AMCA learning curve using F35 learnings and piggy backing on F-35 'service' infrastructure in India

MMRCA was written 15~20 years back and scenario has changes significantly with China (and potentially Pakis) fielding Stealth jets much before we get ours from Russia. Best to dump and start afresh ...

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Viv S » 13 Jan 2015 00:09

Okay folks. Lets get the conversation back on track before Indranil loses his patience with our idle chatter. :D


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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Vamsee » 13 Jan 2015 00:42

Parrikar outlines alternatives to Rafale :eek:

Speaking to a television channel, Headlines Today, on Monday, Parrikar said the Su-30MKI offered a viable alternative, especially given that Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) was upgrading and overhauling the fighter and equipping it with state-of-the-art electronic warfare systems.

Said Parrikar: "Sukhoi-30 choice is always there. What I mean to say is: upgrade the Sukhoi-30, make it more capable." Dismissing concerns about the IAF's falling fighter numbers, Parrikar said the IAF could put more fighters into the sky by improving the serviceability rate of its current fleet of 35 squadrons.


barely half of the IAF's premier Russian fighters are available for combat missions at any given time. Since then, due to HAL's efforts, that has risen to 58 per cent, still below the global norm of 80-85 per cent. Parrikar made it clear that the IAF needed to look at the issue of fighter costs. He said, "It is not always… go and purchase it. A cost effective purchase is also important."

Declining to reveal the actual cost of buying the Rafale, Parrikar said, "Whether it is Rs 40,000 crore, or Rs 50,000 crore or Rs 1 lakh-crore, we are speaking about 50 per cent of the capital budget of the defence services."

Parrikar also voiced his concern at Dassault's reported reluctance to meet the terms of the IAF tender, which required the French company to guarantee the 108 fighters that HAL would build in India, after the first 18 were supplied fully-built in France. The defence minister said, "I have told (Dassault) to send a person to work out the (differences). You have to be clear that, irrespective of anything, the (tender's) terms have to be met. They cannot be diluted."


Interestingly, Parrikar said he was considering creating a list of defence products that would no longer be imported. He said, "Maybe some items can be brought under that, where we have already developed a certain import substitution (ability). Some items may be brought under that by 2015."

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby KrishnaK » 13 Jan 2015 04:47

barely half of the IAF's premier Russian fighters are available for combat missions at any given time. Since then, due to HAL's efforts, that has risen to 58 per cent, still below the global norm of 80-85 per cent. Parrikar made it clear that the IAF needed to look at the issue of fighter costs. He said, "It is not always… go and purchase it. A cost effective purchase is also important."

Declining to reveal the actual cost of buying the Rafale, Parrikar said, "Whether it is Rs 40,000 crore, or Rs 50,000 crore or Rs 1 lakh-crore, we are speaking about 50 per cent of the capital budget of the defence services."

Parrikar also voiced his concern at Dassault's reported reluctance to meet the terms of the IAF tender, which required the French company to guarantee the 108 fighters that HAL would build in India, after the first 18 were supplied fully-built in France. The defence minister said, "I have told (Dassault) to send a person to work out the (differences). You have to be clear that, irrespective of anything, the (tender's) terms have to be met. They cannot be diluted."


Interestingly, Parrikar said he was considering creating a list of defence products that would no longer be imported. He said, "Maybe some items can be brought under that, where we have already developed a certain import substitution (ability). Some items may be brought under that by 2015."


Very impressive, Manohar Parrikar. It's not as much the exact decisions he takes, but the fact that he is decisive.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby NRao » 13 Jan 2015 05:58

Modi visits France + Germany in March/April?

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby member_26622 » 13 Jan 2015 06:10

Here is my simple suggestion to GOI before packing bags for Europe

Dassault Rafale deal price - $ 20 ~ 40 Billion > Approx. 30 billion
Dassault Rafale Profit Margin - 33% or more
Dassault Profit - $ 30 billion * 33% ~ 10 Billion $

Compare this to

Dassault Aviation Market Cap < 10 Billion $

Better for India to buy/invest in Dassault Aviation by ponying up $ 10 billion upfront for controlling stake, and then get Rafale at 33% discount i.e. mnfr. cost. We will have the plane and company for full leverage - no screwing us up for spares and upgrades :roll:

Not inventing this by any means - our import mafia was doing above math all this time - check Tatra dealings.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby nirav » 13 Jan 2015 08:41

^ that be $ 10 Billion + the less 33% disc , which would still be more than 20 Billion ...

Since RIL was keen abt getting a slice of the pie, GOI could "advise" RIL to short the hell out of Dassault aviation and then declare scrapping of the deal. Dassaults current stock price - 1012.
it was 595.10 on 27th Jan 2012, a few days before being announced L1. Shot up immediately to 695 and since then has been in a visible uptrend..

Can then buy Eurofighter at a lesser price and profit returned to GOI by RIl is a bonus .. :mrgreen:

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby member_26622 » 13 Jan 2015 10:02

^ What you are hinting is that the profit from Indian order is already baked in to Dassault Aviation price. Since it's about double after our L1 announcement i.e. $ 5 billion increase on a $ 10 billion order (now 20 and even approaching 30 billion $), profit margin is easy 40% - considering markets know everything.

Looking at ownership structure is more interesting, it's more or less a family owned company with Mr. Serge Dassault. Further digging uncovers more muck - convicted (not even accused) of buying votes (http://www.forbes.com/profile/serge-dassault/) and bribing government officials in defense deals (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agusta_scandal).

This wine is going to be hard to resist, looks like UPA left an 'IED' for the next government.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby deejay » 13 Jan 2015 10:51

nik wrote:^ What you are hinting is that the profit from Indian order is already baked in to Dassault Aviation price. Since it's about double after our L1 announcement i.e. $ 5 billion increase on a $ 10 billion order (now 20 and even approaching 30 billion $), profit margin is easy 40% - considering markets know everything.

Looking at ownership structure is more interesting, it's more or less a family owned company with Mr. Serge Dassault. Further digging uncovers more muck - convicted (not even accused) of buying votes (http://www.forbes.com/profile/serge-dassault/) and bribing government officials in defense deals (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agusta_scandal).

This wine is going to be hard to resist, looks like UPA left an 'IED' for the next government.


I think, if there is sufficient discussion on Dassault owners on MSM, Rafail will always remain a fighter with the French Air Force and we will have USD 30Billion to spend on LCA Mk 1, Mk 2, AMCA.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Philip » 13 Jan 2015 10:59

Assuming that the budget for the MMRCA with inflation has been hiked to only $15B,$10B can be used to buy 200+ MKIs,MIG-29s,etc.,plus 40 more LCAs ,and another $5B for the FGFA/AMCA whatever. If one looks at the options that can be arrived at given such a budget,the Rafale should be last on the list of anything!

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Sid » 13 Jan 2015 19:02

Is Indian threat of dropping Rafale (and opting for Su 30) linked to French denial of Mistral warships to Russia? Russians did warned that blocking Mistral will have negative impact on Rafale deal.

Everyone knew dropping Rafale deal, due to its gigantuous price tag (<30B), was a sensible decision. I am not even sure if it contains weapons package in original deal. But suddenly MoD grew balls to say it out loud? Even Arun Jately till few months back said everything was on track.

Cancellation of this deal will definitely have adverse effect on French (and their economy).

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby brar_w » 13 Jan 2015 19:13

Which Russians warned (as in any officials connected to the Russian government) ?

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby member_26622 » 13 Jan 2015 19:14

@ Phillip Sir - Their is no 5, 10 or 15 B $ for spending on MKI, Mig-29, FGFA, F-18 or F-35. A quick stroll in Mumbai (or any other metro) suburbs will help folks understand ground reality - recommended for posh Delhi/Paris/Moscow/Washington/London class.

Taking a quote from renowned economist MMS - 'Chadar dekh ke pare failane chahiye'

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby NRao » 13 Jan 2015 19:34

Serious talks:

Indian Defense Secretary in France for Rafale Talks

Indian Defence Secretary Radha Krishna Mathur is in Paris Monday and Tuesday to help speed negotiations on the Medium Multirole Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) program, an Indian Defence Ministry source said. A senior official of state-owned Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd. (HAL) is accompanying Mathur, the official said.

In December, Indian Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar and visiting French Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian agreed to fast-track the MMRCA negotiations for the purchase of 126 Dassault Aviation Rafale fighters for US $12 billion. That figure, originally estimated in 2007, is now put at about $20 billion, the MoD source added.

The contract negotiations are on track, the official said, but refused to specify when a deal could be finalized.

"Negotiations can be stretched in big ticket deals like the MMRCA deal," the official added.

Talks with Dassault began in 2012 after Rafale was down-selected as the preferred aircraft over the Eurofighter Typhoon. Issues relating to the cost of the 108 Rafales to be license-produced by HAL and French guarantees on the delivery schedule have delayed final agreement.

Under terms of purchase, the first 18 aircraft will come in fly-away condition while the remaining 108 will be manufactured under a technology transfer process. Out of the 108 aircraft to be license-produced in India, 74 would be single-seat and 34 twin-seat aircraft.

Even as HAL is finalizing the cost of the Indian-made Rafales, HAL is insisting that Dassault guarantee the delivery schedule because hundreds of spares and subsystems will be supplied by the French.

French officials have said they can assist HAL in the delivery schedule and help lower the cost of the Indian-made Rafales, but cannot give guarantees.

An Indian Air Force official said the MMRCA negotiations would have been finalized long ago if the Indian producer had been a private sector company rather than a state-owned entity.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Paul » 13 Jan 2015 20:29

If Parrikkar thought Minesweeper deal was a landmine for the BJP, then the Rafale deal will be Daisy cutter for NDA govt. Modi is no fool for ignoring these unintended outcomes.

& what if it comes out after the deal is signed that the Gandhi family has received kickbacks for leaving out loopholes in the RFP. Not even Amit Shah will be able to figure out a way out of the mess.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby NRao » 14 Jan 2015 05:22

Original Terms Have to Be Met In Rafale Jet Deal: Parrikar

(Source: Times of India; published Jan 13, 2015)



NEW DELHI --- India on Monday said France would have to adhere to the conditions specified in the original tender for the $20 billion MMRCA (medium multi-role combat aircraft) project, even as defence secretary R K Mathur left for Paris amid the deadlock over the mega deal for 126 Rafale fighters.

"The RFP (request for proposal) terms have to be met... they cannot be diluted," defence minister Manohar Parrikar told a television channel. Ruling out any comeback by the fighters which lost out in the MMRCA race, he added, "How can another plane be considered when the L-1 (lowest bidder, the Rafale) has been determined."

As reported by TOI earlier, finalization of the complex MMRCA project has been stuck for almost a year due to French aviation major Dassault's refusal to stand guarantee for the 108 Rafale fighters to be manufactured by Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) in India with transfer of technology after the first 18 jets are delivered off-the-shelf to IAF.

Apart from this refusal to take responsibility in terms of liquidity damages and production timelines for the jets to be made in India, the MoD is also upset with Dassault's attempts to "change the price line" that had led to Rafale's selection over the Eurofighter Typhoon as the L-1 three years ago.

Sources said Mathur, on a two-day visit to France, will discuss a wide range of issues, including the need for Dassault to stick to the terms and conditions laid down in the original MMRCA tender or RFP floated in August 2007.

India wants to take a final call on the MMRCA project before Prime Minister Narendra Modi visits France and Germany in April. If Dassault does not honour its commitments made in its bids submitted to the RFP, India may be left with no option but to scrap the entire MMRCA project despite having invested almost a decade in the selection process.


(EDITOR’S NOTE: Contrary to what is reported above, “Contract negotiations are on track,” Defense News reported late on Jan 12 from New Delhi, quoting an unidentified MoD official.
The official “refused to specify when a deal could be finalized,” but added that "Negotiations can be stretched in big ticket deals like the MMRCA deal."
India’s desire to complete the deal by April is due to the fact that its financial year ends on March 31, and that any budgeted funds that are unspent on that date are paid back into the general budget.)

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby member_24770 » 14 Jan 2015 06:27

nik wrote:Here is my simple suggestion to GOI before packing bags for Europe

Dassault Rafale deal price - $ 20 ~ 40 Billion > Approx. 30 billion
Dassault Rafale Profit Margin - 33% or more
Dassault Profit - $ 30 billion * 33% ~ 10 Billion $

Compare this to

Dassault Aviation Market Cap < 10 Billion $

Better for India to buy/invest in Dassault Aviation by ponying up $ 10 billion upfront for controlling stake, and then get Rafale at 33% discount i.e. mnfr. cost. We will have the plane and company for full leverage - no screwing us up for spares and upgrades :roll:

Not inventing this by any means - our import mafia was doing above math all this time - check Tatra dealings.


If you have not done business in France what you will not realize is that the employees will own you. You cannot fire without an exorbitant severance, lay off without a social plan and the unions go on strike at a whim. Plus the work week in France is short and holidays many. The initial decision to buy French does not make sense to me.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby kmkraoind » 14 Jan 2015 09:09

Sid wrote:Is Indian threat of dropping Rafale (and opting for Su 30) linked to French denial of Mistral warships to Russia? Russians did warned that blocking Mistral will have negative impact on Rafale deal.

Everyone knew dropping Rafale deal, due to its gigantuous price tag (<30B), was a sensible decision. I am not even sure if it contains weapons package in original deal. But suddenly MoD grew balls to say it out loud? Even Arun Jately till few months back said everything was on track.

Cancellation of this deal will definitely have adverse effect on French (and their economy).


Modi's govt is aiming for multiple birds with 1 stone.
- Help Russian friends when they are in mess and in lieu get some dual technology items that may help our strategic program.
- Head of Scamgress had received a goodwill amount for Rafale, if deal fells through, it will create friction between Madam and Dassult (I am sincerely expecting some some sparks that may burn Con).
- Since Russia is helping us on strategic sectors, may be India want more from France for 20-30 billion dollars as a goodwill (like seeker technology or AMCA consultation).

Definitely, Modi's govt is upping the ante, because we may gain if situation turns to either side. Indeed, Modi is lucky charm for Bharath.

Yagnasri
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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Yagnasri » 14 Jan 2015 09:23

As per the reports some 13k Cr were cut from defense budget this year. I therefore feel we are not getting Rafale at all. Reasons are simple. No money in India and no sense in France.

Victor
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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Victor » 14 Jan 2015 09:46

NRao wrote:Even as HAL is finalizing the cost of the Indian-made Rafales, HAL is insisting that Dassault guarantee the delivery schedule because hundreds of spares and subsystems will be supplied by the French.

French officials have said they can assist HAL in the delivery schedule and help lower the cost of the Indian-made Rafales, but cannot give guarantees.

This may be key.

The French should give a guarantee on the delivery schedules of the spares, subsystems and everything supplied by them to HAL and should be held accountable for delays of such deliveries. But I simply fail to understand the reasoning behind forcing them to guarantee what happens after that, if that is what we are trying to do.

The other thing I don't understand is we are quoting the RFP terms which Dassault responded to and reached L1 on the basis of their proposal. Did the French agree to take responsibility for delivery timelines from HAL after they had delivered everything HAL needs to make the planes? If so, they were stupid and must pay for their mistake. In that case, we should be holding them to the terms of their actual proposal, not the Request For Proposal (RFP). By declaring their proposal as L1, we have sanctified it as the basis for anything that comes afterwards and it overrides the RFP terms.

OTOH, if they did not mention or account for timelines after they deliver the parts to HAL in their proposal on the basis of which they were L1, then we should have caught it and it is our failure. There is no way we can hold them responsible for that.

It could be that both sides goofed up to a certain degree but cannot come out and spell it out for fear of legal ramifications as L2 would jump in with all 3 feet. In that case, both sides would have to give ground.

Philip
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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Philip » 14 Jan 2015 10:54

The manner in which the Scorpene deal was massively mulched up led to a 5 yr. delay and huge cost overruns.I don't think that the NDA wish to repeat the same.The options if the deal are to be cancelled should also be examined in parallel so that the same may be dealt with in detail by the cabinet when the final cut is to be made. If the French have already paid someone "facilitation fees" as some speculate,then they will have to swallow the bitter financial pill as exorbitant prices will surely see the deal nosedive. One can expect a lot of pressure from Russia now that the DM has openly spoken of the Sukhoi option at half the cost. Getting the economy going with the benefits reaching the poorest level of society is Mr.Modi's earnest desire. While there will be an eye on nurgent defence requirements,the other eye will be firmly on the economy.

srai
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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby srai » 14 Jan 2015 12:18

NRao wrote:Even as HAL is finalizing the cost of the Indian-made Rafales, HAL is insisting that Dassault guarantee the delivery schedule because hundreds of spares and subsystems will be supplied by the French.

French officials have said they can assist HAL in the delivery schedule and help lower the cost of the Indian-made Rafales, but cannot give guarantees.


This is from CAG's recommendation from the Su-30MKIs licence production audit. Here is that report: CHAPTER IX: DEFENCE PUBLIC SECTOR UNDERTAKINGS - 9.1 Licence production of Su-30 MKI aircraft

...
Conclusion

HAL did not receive all the components of transfer of technology from ROE as envisaged impacting the timely supply of deliverables to IAF. Similar issue was observed in respect of Transfer of Technology to Ordnance Factories as brought out in para 8.1.9.2. Consequently, HAL could not achieve the required level of absorption of technology to meet the compressed schedule of deliveries and had to resort to outsourcing to ROE which increased the import component and had an impact on the indigenisation programme.

Recommendation

9.1.4
  • Suitable clauses may be incorporated in the contracts with foreign vendors to safeguard the interests of defence forces in respect of delay in meeting contractual obligations including transfer of technology.
  • PERT charts drawn up for each major activity including indigenisation should be adhered to.
...

NRao
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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby NRao » 14 Jan 2015 17:59

True. India, rightly, is correcting old mistakes. The FGFA to is in the same space. All angles, as far as possible, are being covered.

Good.


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