Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby abhik » 25 Jan 2015 04:03

indranilroy wrote:MODERATOR NOTE:

1. Moderating a conversation that one is part of is not against BR rules. It is the moderator's prerogative. Member's can report moderation, if a reason for the moderation is not provided. Please bear in mind that unneccessary reporting may attract further action.
2. The moderation in this case is correct because it stopped this thread going off-topic based on suggestions which are currently both unsubstantiated and infeasible.

OT: I just find it queer that in threads read by multiple moderators(including yourself), almost all the user warnings and bans are handed out by one particular moderator(I'm not talking about the OTposts). Quite clearly the moderating standards are different when it comes to this particular mod.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Karan M » 25 Jan 2015 04:18

brar_w wrote:Doesn't just require that. Each side has its own demands vis-a-vis a ton of matters (Tech transfer etc). As I have explained before on the F-35 issue, the F-35 program has yet to establish a sales, and transfer model outside of the JPO model that it was designed to be procured under (By partners, and by friendly FMS customers etc). Any activity to negotiate a deal outside of that model would involve years of detailed discussion and bargaining, involving the USAF, JPO, US Congress, Pentagon, IAF, MOD and the Indian and US political class. I do not see the IAF or the MOD agreeing to the JPO model therefore this deal is a non-starter as is because I really do not see investments from both sides to hammer these issues out. Ultimately, Obama can only promise to sell the F-35, and Modi can only agree to procure them. What follows is going to involve stakeholders that are not in direct control of either Obama or Modi and this would be a time-consuming process. Anything but a fast deal that catches everyone by surprise. Additionally, it would be extremely unwise on the part of the Indian MOD, or the Prime Minister himself, to enter or commit to a deal of this magnitude whether it is for the F-35, or an equally high_priority, high tech deal without first negotiating or having an understanding of a preliminary position of the US establishment towards their concerns. As such i think that such deals would be extremely unlikely especially when you could for the sake of symbolism move faster on other deals such as those for attack helos, Unmanned aircrafts etc that you have a ground work on.

Just my 2 cents, although we won't have to wait long to find out


Again, you are missing the point I was attempting to make. Let me restate. The processes werent there for other deals? You think a decade back India would be operating the AH-64 or be offered codevelopment of EMALS or a Javelin? Its not about the F-35 per se but the intent. That something like this may be contemplated even if not pursued right now is possible. It opens up alternatives beside the Rafale. It doesnt mean the deal is being signed now. It means Obama and Modi talk about something and the next years are spent working it out to get best optics for both sides. Again, not saying its happening, just saying its within the realms of possibility for any other program too. These are door openers.

These are political decisions and the amount of political leeway that Govts have is incredible.
The F/A-18 E/F in the MMRCA - Boeing execs at the time were open about the fact that they wouldnt be there w/AESA radar but for the USG asking them to specifically take part.

Wise or unwise is besides the point because politicians make these big ticket decisions as huge gestures and symbolism has its role as does the actual significance and their babus and bureaucrats hammer out the details to meet a predecided objective. The Su-30 deal was similarly partly political in nature. IAF then went ahead and modified it to meet their requirements.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby brar_w » 25 Jan 2015 04:23

Of course "pursuing" something out there for the future is definitely a possibility. My opinion was strictly on big ticket announcements on products that haven't been publicly spoken of.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Suraj » 25 Jan 2015 04:33

Note to posters : please use the report post function or post in the forum feedback thread, not here . This is the MRCA thread, not the rumor and gossip thread . There's no latitude to post any tangential topic even if posters state that they will be civil about it. It is a mod imperative to both keep the thread on topic and address posting issues, which is what has happened here . Continuing the debate on forum moderation only sidetracks this thread further and reinforces the original firm moderation action as the right one. Please post on topic and use the suggested options for any further feedback. Thanks .

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Karan M » 25 Jan 2015 04:40

brar_w wrote:Of course "pursuing" something out there for the future is definitely a possibility. My opinion was strictly on big ticket announcements on products that haven't been publicly spoken of.


I am thinking more in terms of what discussions might occur or be sparked off. Of course, its a very short trip but Obama wants a legacy and Modi wants good optics for the home crowd. Personally, a 100 F-35 even with limited TOT is better than a 126 odd Rafale if its cheaper in my opinion. That deal's going sour with all the rubbish Dassault has been upto & the F-35 is a credible dissuasive force against both our adversary AF esp when mixed with FGFAs.

Now I hope Ajai Shukla doesnt invite me to track-2s on TSP thinking I have gone soft on that issue. :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Cosmo_R » 25 Jan 2015 05:31

Karan M wrote:
brar_w wrote:Of course "pursuing" something out there for the future is definitely a possibility. My opinion was strictly on big ticket announcements on products that haven't been publicly spoken of.


I am thinking more in terms of what discussions might occur or be sparked off. Of course, its a very short trip but Obama wants a legacy and Modi wants good optics for the home crowd. Personally, a 100 F-35 even with limited TOT is better than a 126 odd Rafale if its cheaper in my opinion. That deal's going sour with all the rubbish Dassault has been upto & the F-35 is a credible dissuasive force against both our adversary AF esp when mixed with FGFAs.

Now I hope Ajai Shukla doesnt invite me to track-2s on TSP thinking I have gone soft on that issue. :mrgreen: :mrgreen:


You of all people? Arguing that F-35s might be an alternative to Rafale? Shock and awe!

I agree. It's the cost effectiveness that counts. We learn how to manufacture 3/4G a/c from a Rafale ToT @$22bn. But we learn the tactics and utility from a F35 lease/flyway cost at much less. Think about it for our own AMCA.

If we go with the Rafale, we are still still going with the Ambassador/Morris Crowley route. It's a gap filler at the cost of almost every other IN/IA project.

Keeps the Frenchies in Camembert but not much for us.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby vishvak » 25 Jan 2015 16:32

We will learn and have learnt much from FGFA and Sukhoi30MKI. If we want to learn star wars, better learn it inhouse instead of out of the sky ideas that cost billions of $ more. Cost effectiveness is merely part of the deal.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Sumeet » 25 Jan 2015 17:34

Karan M wrote:
brar_w wrote:Of course "pursuing" something out there for the future is definitely a possibility. My opinion was strictly on big ticket announcements on products that haven't been publicly spoken of.


I am thinking more in terms of what discussions might occur or be sparked off. Of course, its a very short trip but Obama wants a legacy and Modi wants good optics for the home crowd. Personally, a 100 F-35 even with limited TOT is better than a 126 odd Rafale if its cheaper in my opinion. That deal's going sour with all the rubbish Dassault has been upto & the F-35 is a credible dissuasive force against both our adversary AF esp when mixed with FGFAs.

Now I hope Ajai Shukla doesnt invite me to track-2s on TSP thinking I have gone soft on that issue. :mrgreen: :mrgreen:



But India would have to perform pretty well economically to support F-35IN, FGFA MKI and AMCA. If this happens barring US's aviation forces Indian forces will be second most powerful aviation force in the world especially when backed by Desi force multipliers like AWACS, fuel refuellers, our own Satellite based Recon, Surveillance and Navigation system.

I would argue one thing though that we should get rights to make changes in CNI, EW systems and Weapon integration as and when we desire.

Not now but in future say 12-15 years from depending on how we grow and our relationship shapes with USA have a big air force base in Arunachal Pradesh that is host to F-35 IN, FGFA MKI, AMCA, F-35A and F-22 Raptor.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby eklavya » 25 Jan 2015 17:52

Karan M wrote:
brar_w wrote:Of course "pursuing" something out there for the future is definitely a possibility. My opinion was strictly on big ticket announcements on products that haven't been publicly spoken of.


I am thinking more in terms of what discussions might occur or be sparked off. Of course, its a very short trip but Obama wants a legacy and Modi wants good optics for the home crowd. Personally, a 100 F-35 even with limited TOT is better than a 126 odd Rafale if its cheaper in my opinion. That deal's going sour with all the rubbish Dassault has been upto & the F-35 is a credible dissuasive force against both our adversary AF esp when mixed with FGFAs.

Now I hope Ajai Shukla doesnt invite me to track-2s on TSP thinking I have gone soft on that issue. :mrgreen: :mrgreen:


No one from India has ever flown a F-35, tested its parameters (in US or Indian conditions), discussed technology tranfer, discussed key operational issues (like access to source codes), discussed delivery schedule, or engaged in price negotiations (for the aircraft, its weapons and maintenance support). Until all this is done, which will not be quick, the government cannot make a decision.

The Apache and Chinook procurement have been under discussion for years, and still no conclusion!

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby NRao » 25 Jan 2015 18:30

Oh my!!! From a turkey to an accepted member of the AF!!!!

Not now but in future say 12-15 years from depending on how we grow and our relationship shapes with USA have a big air force base in Arunachal Pradesh that is host to F-35 IN, FGFA MKI, AMCA, F-35A and F-22 Raptor.


F-35C (or a B ) perhaps. F-22, not worth it - unless the IAF accepts the ones that the USAF is flying (even then not really worth it).

I think it tool Israel some 5/6 years to negotiate for their F-35I. Bet it will take India a better part of the decade to "negotiate" for a F-35IN.

I am not sure what is really holding up the FGFA - as far as a foreign "5th Gen", that should suffice.

WRT the US, they have offered help, take that for the AMCA. Which Indians claim to be a 5th+ Gen plane.
Last edited by NRao on 25 Jan 2015 18:46, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby eklavya » 25 Jan 2015 18:40

NRao wrote:Oh my!!! From a turkey to an accepted member of teh teh AF. That is a huge leap.

Not now but in future say 12-15 years from depending on how we grow and our relationship shapes with USA have a big air force base in Arunachal Pradesh that is host to F-35 IN, FGFA MKI, AMCA, F-35A and F-22 Raptor.


F-35C (or a B ) perhaps. F-22, not worth it - unless the IAF accepts the ones that the USAF is flying (even then not really worth it).

I think it tool Israel some 5/6 years to negotiate for their F-35I. Bet it will take India a better part of the decade to "negotiate" for a F-35IN.

I am not sure what is really holding up the FGFA - as far as a foreign "5th Gen", that should suffice.

WRT the US, they have offered help, take that for the AMCA. Which Indians claim to be a 5th+ Gen plane.


Of a possible 1,000 mile journey, not even the first mile has been accomplished, and you say "accepted"? If it will take 6 years to negotiate for F-35, it is no alternative to the Rafale. If FGFA turns out to be a dud (at this oil price, Russian ability to fund R&D must be suspect), and we need VLO capability, then F-35 may make sense (if it meets our requirements, which without testing, we cannot say one way or another; we cannot take someone else's word for it that it meets our requirements). Everyone was rah rah about F-18IN, until it did poorly in the MMRCA trials.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby brar_w » 25 Jan 2015 18:51

F-35C (or a B ) perhaps. F-22, not worth it - unless the IAF accepts the ones that the USAF is flying (even then not really worth it)


The F-22 cannot be exported. A) It is no longer in production and the RAND estimated cost of bringing it back into production runs into the billions. Even the factory where it was made has been busy producing transport aircraft. B) Existing F-22's are dearly important to the USAF, and even if they weren't they could not be exported. There was never an export protocol developed to cover sensitive technology on the F-22 and as such the cost to do this would be quite significant.

I agree with Eklavya, The F-35 for the IAF is unlikely. You could commit to it and then spend a few years hammering out the details but even that would most likely involve considerable back channel discussions prior to announcements. Given the media scrutiny on this visit, this relationship, and the scrutiny on the F-35 program, something would have come out by now if this were likely being discussed. So there is nothing that even remotely suggests (the baseless F-35 Raptor report aside) that this may be the case.

Regarding testing Eklavya, How much was the PAKFA tested before india committed in principle to invest billions in the program? ;). I don't think the testing bit is very important if it is a government to government deal (it comes later when the IAF may wish to hammer out what it wants in its versions) but you do make a good point.
Last edited by brar_w on 25 Jan 2015 18:58, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby eklavya » 25 Jan 2015 19:26

brar_w wrote:Regarding testing Eklavya, How much was the PAKFA tested before india committed in principle to invest billions in the program? ;). I don't think the testing bit is very important if it is a government to government deal (it comes later when the IAF may wish to hammer out what it wants in its versions) but you do make a good point.


I don't think India has or should commit billions to the PAKFA/FGFA R&D programme. We will have no control over how the money is spent (the Russians might just send it to Switzerland with a stopover in Cyprus), and even if they spend it on R&D, results are far from certain, and even if the results are good, they may not give us in-depth access to the technology, and they may sell the technology developed with our money to the Chinese. Spending billions on R&D programmes managed within India makes sense; if the Sukhoi design bureau is prepared to send its best project managers, design engineers and scientists to Bangalore to work with ADA/HAL, etc, it would make more sense. Same goes for the engines and the radars. If we cannot manage the R&D programme within India, then we should buy proven technology from abroad (and F-35/PAKFA, in my view, are not proven until the IAF has tested them thoroughly and says they are good enough for our requirements; the problems of the F-35 are too numerous and too well publicised to believe it is a "great plane" until it has been tested in our conditions for our requirements; as for the problems of the PAKFA, the Russian secrecy culture will keep them hidden, but you can't hide an engine on fire on the runway).

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby vishvak » 25 Jan 2015 19:33

It is indeed a great plane that is discussed here every time we talk of Su30MKI + Tejas Mk-1/Mk-2 as an alternative to MMRCA competition winner Rafale and then FGFA/F-22/AMCA et al. After all, it is the only available 5th Gen right now from America, and rest of 5th Gen, including AMCA are in planning/design phase.

In fact, we are talking about this great plane even while discussing AMCA now, in the very same line as it is. The most important point therefore that, it is inevitable for India to invest more and more in next Gen engines that will support AMCA - which should be the most relevant discussion here as far as alternate of MMRCA is concerned.

Even for heavyweight fighter Su30MKI deal, we have had discussions, modifications, improvements and much learning. One can not ignore all these decades of experience, not to mention continuous help from USA to project Pakistan. The same Senate of USA has allowed periodic release of wartime hardware to terror munna under various excuses.

Also, fighter deal is not as simple as transport aircraft deal as MMRCA competition has clearly shown with its detailed scrutiny. We can not be buying a fighter jet like we bought a transport aircraft. And we are talking nothing about such a deal in air, have we?

For all this big talk, we need to first invest more and more in our own projects about engines/radars, production lines of LCA, Medium/heavy transport jets for AWACS/refuelers/, and so on.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby brar_w » 25 Jan 2015 19:36

The problems with the F-35 program are highlighted because they are a part of an open system/ open book. The DOT&E reports, GAO reports are published and put online as a matter of policy. Problems are going to be plenty in advanced aerospace development programs. There is absolutely no way around that (have been the norm on the LCA, would be the case even with the AMCA and future ADA/HAL projects), other then to not push the edge with each program (but as the Europeans learned, they still ran into plenty of headache's) There is no such equivalent system on the Russian front with regards to these reports where ball by ball commentary is provided, vetted by auditing agencies that compare it to stipulated requirements and goals published in black and white. No idea of internal targets exist other than media reports which at times are conflicting. One can refer the same reports on previous successful programs such as the F-15, F-16, F-18 as even they are archived if one has access to databases. So as far as challenges, and problems in development, they have to be taken in historic context and as such the US media, political class and most citizenry that does openly tries to study defense spending, is perfectly fine with the anti-defense establishment (such as POGO) running away with these reports and not putting them in context as those deciding on the matter usually do (US Congress, USAF/USN/USMC senior staff, foreign governments and Air Chiefs). This is the flip side of having a very transparent system, where anti-defense folks can and will use your own reports (transitionary in nature) against you, where even competitors would use their PR machinery to malign systems for which they competed and lost etc. There are some programs (such as the B-3) that are off limits, but for most programs this is an acceptable thing given that those with the authority are kept aware and provided a more balanced perspective.

The problems reported have been on COST, Technical challenges (be it the helmet, the sensors, the integration, fusion etc), production capacity issues, development timeline-line-slippage, weapons integration, poor management at some point in the program, poor government oversight at some point in the development, poor capability framework, extra years to redesign for weight overage etc etc etc. None of these are unique aerospace challenges, and neither have been deal breakers because solutions have been developed, designed and implemented and those making the calls are well aware of this. It just so happened that while all this was going on (the delay) those opposing it for any reason (whether that is the anti-defense crowd, whether that is someone who believes that uS could actually afford 2-3 separate 5th gen programs, or whether one believes that his OEM should have been awarded the contract etc) have had a field day. The program still is in development, and will remain in systems development till early 2018 despite of IOC. Until then challenges would be continuously brought out, and responded too with solutions and plans to implement them. This back and forth would continue as has been the norm even before the F-35.

Lets move further discussion to the appropriate thread.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Karan M » 25 Jan 2015 20:08

Cosmo_R wrote:You of all people? Arguing that F-35s might be an alternative to Rafale? Shock and awe!

I agree. It's the cost effectiveness that counts. We learn how to manufacture 3/4G a/c from a Rafale ToT @$22bn. But we learn the tactics and utility from a F35 lease/flyway cost at much less. Think about it for our own AMCA.

If we go with the Rafale, we are still still going with the Ambassador/Morris Crowley route. It's a gap filler at the cost of almost every other IN/IA project.

Keeps the Frenchies in Camembert but not much for us.


LOL :mrgreen:

I am going purely by the tech aspect. Mostly all aspect stealth in the lower bands and a good avionics suite makes for a good argument. Doubt whether PAF & PLAAF will be able to effectively counter it. PLAAF will have to rely on fixed static radar networks which can be degraded.

FGFA + F-35 would make for a winning combo but of course money is an issue. As is TOT - expect negligible for F-35 etc. At best some local sustainment facility.

Rafale is useful but its not the one and only option out there.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Karan M » 25 Jan 2015 20:12

eklavya wrote:No one from India has ever flown a F-35, tested its parameters (in US or Indian conditions), discussed technology tranfer, discussed key operational issues (like access to source codes), discussed delivery schedule, or engaged in price negotiations (for the aircraft, its weapons and maintenance support). Until all this is done, which will not be quick, the government cannot make a decision.

The Apache and Chinook procurement have been under discussion for years, and still no conclusion!


I dont think tech transfer is possible with the F-35. At best it would be an Israel type model. Limited access to add some of our weapons and systems but rest locked down + local sustainment in terms of maint/OH facilities but with foreign supplied components.

Thats the part which would fail to make the cut with the "Make in India" policy.

But we do have the FGFA et al for that.

Rest testing etc is not such an issue. IAF has a long history of adapting aircraft designed for others into its menagerie.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Karan M » 25 Jan 2015 20:17

Sumeet wrote:But India would have to perform pretty well economically to support F-35IN, FGFA MKI and AMCA. If this happens barring US's aviation forces Indian forces will be second most powerful aviation force in the world especially when backed by Desi force multipliers like AWACS, fuel refuellers, our own Satellite based Recon, Surveillance and Navigation system.

I would argue one thing though that we should get rights to make changes in CNI, EW systems and Weapon integration as and when we desire.

Not now but in future say 12-15 years from depending on how we grow and our relationship shapes with USA have a big air force base in Arunachal Pradesh that is host to F-35 IN, FGFA MKI, AMCA, F-35A and F-22 Raptor.


Agreed on all counts except basing in India.. thats just a bit too much. :) We can defend ourselves. We dont need them to base here.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Philip » 25 Jan 2015 20:23

"Safety in numbers".Let's be pragmatic.The economy has to improve drastically for a continued period of time before we can afford an IAF filled with mainly "Rolls Royce/Bentley" class of aircraft. Therefore,talk of F-22s,JSFs,etc. are in the realm of fantasy.Right now our sqd. strength according to the parliamentary committee is down to just 25 sqds! We desperately need large numbers of cost-effective capable aircraft to restore sqd. strength and the IAF's capability when faced with a two-front threat.Unfortunately the LCA programme has not materialized in the timeframe envisaged and another 5 years will it take to stabilize production.Hundreds of legacy MIG types are being retired as of now and need replacement today not 5 years hence.Squandering $20B on just 120+ Rafales would be a monumentally bad decision when we need several hundreds of aircraft to rewach the desired sqd. strength of 40+. We can augment numbers either by increasing MKIs being built at a steady rate in India,or adding to the MIG-29 fleet also being upgraded at home,adding whatever LCAs produced in the next 5 years as a bonus..There would be the added advantage of not investing in new infrastructure,etc. for a new type and the money saved going into the AMCA and FGFA programmes,extra tankers,AEW aircraft,transports,trainers,IJTs,whatever. The budget for the IAF should be fixed and wisely spent covering all bases,not on a fancy fleet of "sports cars".

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby brar_w » 25 Jan 2015 20:26

Those that have sought tech transfer as part of their JSF deal have sought to do so outside of the program. There is nothing stopping you from seeking advanced technologies from the developers (Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, P&W or BaE) as part of an offset, as South Korea and Japan have done in addition to gaining production work-share that they wanted (Japan sought and received a FACO and long term sustainment facility for most of Asian customers under the JPO model). Significant direct tech transfer on the JSF would not happen for at least a decade if not closer to 2 because the business for the jet is strong and the production line would be running at a very high rate supplying to existence customers. There is simply no financial pressure to open the flood gates to secure orders as is the case for some OEM's in the US and abroad. However, that has not stopped those looking to gain something more than just the weapons system, to develop a strategy at acquiring capability while still negotiating within the dynamics of the largest 5th generation program.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby deejay » 25 Jan 2015 21:53

Karan M wrote:
Sumeet wrote:But India would have to perform pretty well economically to support F-35IN, FGFA MKI and AMCA. If this happens barring US's aviation forces Indian forces will be second most powerful aviation force in the world especially when backed by Desi force multipliers like AWACS, fuel refuellers, our own Satellite based Recon, Surveillance and Navigation system.

I would argue one thing though that we should get rights to make changes in CNI, EW systems and Weapon integration as and when we desire.

Not now but in future say 12-15 years from depending on how we grow and our relationship shapes with USA have a big air force base in Arunachal Pradesh that is host to F-35 IN, FGFA MKI, AMCA, F-35A and F-22 Raptor.


Agreed on all counts except basing in India.. thats just a bit too much. :) We can defend ourselves. We dont need them to base here.


Karan M, I think Sumeet meant an Indian base in Arunachal but the F 35 IN and F 22 would require an amazing Indo- US relation. Oh, BTW, the big airbase in Arunachal, should actually be Assam and I was recently near Chabua AFS. I think, that is the big base now.

Though, I do not see the F35 in India. The FGFA is a far more distant dream than LCA Mk 2. Let us focus on the LCA Mk 2, save money from the Rafale deal by scrapping it and invest half on the LCA Mk2 and the other half on AMCA and speed up the development.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby NRao » 25 Jan 2015 22:03

Outside of what India has acquired there are no discussions on acquiring any finished product any more.

The focus is and will be on the DTTI - Co-Development and Co-Production.

Other than that the US has offered to provide support in some areas (ref IN thread). Of interest to this thread is an offer for "stealth" technologies. And, from an Indian PoV, India has tagged the US for defense - so expect to see efforts towards that end - although it could be slow.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Indranil » 25 Jan 2015 22:08

Why do you boys have to be reminded on a weekly basis that MMRCA discussions on this thread, and F-35 discussions on F-35 thread. Don't force the moderators to get ugly.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Philip » 26 Jan 2015 13:35

We'll have to read between the lines to see if the MMRCA deal is to be affected in any way in the aftermath of O'Bomber's visit. For academic reasons let's suppose that the US is willing to part with some exotic tech that is found on the Rafale,which we could use on our desi birds,say LCA MK-2,jaguar UG,AMCA,whatever,it might lower the value in acquiring the Rafale at exorbitant cost. The money saved could be used to acquire "more of the same" in service and beef up our numbers of aircraft and dwindling sqds.Interesting times for the Raffy.

NRao
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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby NRao » 31 Jan 2015 18:41

Had slipped to page 2!!!! Amazing.

Jan 31, 2015 :: (No title!!!)

There are few things like defence procurement that make the passage of time seem nothing. So it shouldn't shake anyone up that its been three years today that the Indian government chose the Dassault Aviation Rafale in the final downselect of the medium multirole combat aircraft (M-MRCA) competition. The M-MRCA competition has acquired mythological status now. It has its own folklore, its own (sometimes apocryphal) anecdotes of the twists and turns. The years have almost completely transformed the programme and how it is perceived. The wisdom of years usually provides insight. The galling thing about the M-MRCA is that it has lost none of its capacity to enthral, mystify, perplex. I've already told you what currently stalls negotiations between India and, well, France. So, as we head into air show month and mark three years since the M-MRCA downselect, here's 5 developments that, in their own way, tell you where things are:

** Three Rafales return to Aero India 2015 this year. Dassault clearly hopes this is the last time they'll need to fly them in and show them off. Thing is: that was the sentiment right before the last show two years ago too.
** The public statement from India's new defence minister Manohar Parrikar earlier this month on upgraded (and additional) Su-30 MKIs could be a viable alternative to 126+ Rafales only confirmed what I'd reported here -- that the negotiations stall was bad enough for high-level messages from the political leadership to begin flying. Incidentally, the message was loud and clear.
** Delegations outside the contract negotiations committee (CNC) have been formed to meet and hammer out final hurdles. No specific results reported just yet but they're expected given that the French delegation is empowered to make decisions.
** Indian PM Narendra Modi travels to France (and Germany) in April this year. Every effort is currently being made by the French government to facilitate at least a preliminary announcement, or at the very least a positive message, on the deal when PM Modi is in Paris. The PM himself hasn't made known his view, if any, on the programme. The French government on its part made it a point to underscore the inherent 'Make in India' component of the M-MRCA, even if it is facets of precisely this that has a deal hanging fire.
** The empirical dynamics of the IAF's requirements have shifted per force -- they're shifting even as we speak with a fresh cloud over the IAF's upgraded MiG-27 that populates a handful of squadrons. :?: :?: :?: The bean count of squadron strength (approximately 32 squadrons currently) set off against sanctioned fleet strength (42) has shifted too. On average, the IAF manages to lose a squadron's worth of fighter planes every two years. Force accretion won't, in any combination, make up for the numbers required to meet sanctioned figures. In fact, it could be just the opposite.

Cosmo_R
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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Cosmo_R » 31 Jan 2015 19:09

Here's a possible clue (I have said this all along) as to why the MMRCA project is not likely to fly:

"Government sources said even though the Narendra Modi government was keen to acquire the helicopters, the deal has been hanging fire as the defence ministry lacks capital funds.

http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-new ... 12202.aspx.

That's for $2.5bn or ~1/10th of the MMRCA deal which is not only expensive on its own but sucks oxygen from every other project.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby GeorgeWelch » 31 Jan 2015 22:31

[Speculative content from another forum pasted here by the poster deleted; George, don't pull this stunt again. It is nothing but flamebait of worst kind. Don't put up stuff you cannot substantiate either ways. Mind that in future. rohitvats]

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby GeorgeWelch » 01 Feb 2015 01:24

Deleted
Last edited by Suraj on 01 Feb 2015 02:15, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Posted banned one week for thread derailment and trolling

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby rohitvats » 01 Feb 2015 19:41

Last couple of posts have been deleted; to everyone - don't post content from another forum unless it is something factual or you can build on it. Also, once a post have been reported, don't indulge in unnecessary discussion and increase Moderator work load - rohitvats

nvishal
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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby nvishal » 04 Feb 2015 12:17

From what I understand from the history of our weapons procurement program, the rafale deal has essentially been scrapped. Plan B is to go indigenous which coincides(?) with modis MII initiative.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Victor » 05 Feb 2015 01:11

^ Nope, don't confuse Modi's Make in India with Made in India. The former can be 100% firangi plant in India. There is nothing indigenous to fill the MMRC need as yet.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Viv S » 10 Feb 2015 14:27

French MoD Backs Dassault's Position on Indian Rafale

by Caroline Bruneau in Ares, Feb 9, 2015


After months of watching Dassault Aviation being brow-beaten in the Indian press, French arms procurement agency DGA defended its contractor, asserting that a 2012 agreement to provide Rafale fighter jets to New Delhi never committed the company to guarantee aircraft manufactured in India.

“Dassault will not be responsible for the whole contract. It is a co-management setup,” says French defense procurement chief Laurent Collet-Billon, who was clear that France will not assume full liability for the HAL-produced aircraft. “It cannot be a problem, because it was not in the request for proposals (RFP).”

Speaking to reporters during an annual media address Feb. 9 in Paris, France's arms procurement chief said the €10.2-billion ($12 billion) agreement – which has been under negotiation for more than three years – calls for the first 18 of 126 Rafale jets to be built in France. After that, India's Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) would take over production of the remaining 108 aircraft.

However, Dassault's responsibility for the latter has been the subject of heated negotiations between New Delhi and Paris in recent months.

“A lot of progress has been made since 2012,” says Collet-Billon, adding that as negotiations enter a fourth year, he wants to believe they will give way to a contract for the 126 fighters plus 63 options.

But Collet-Billon said talks with the Indian government have become bogged down over questions of production of the fighters on Indian soil.

"India has its own pace," he said of New Delhi officials. "It’s not useful to put pressure on the client. We have to live with our differences."

In the meantime, he says rival fighter suppliers pose no serious threat to the Rafale bid. After two failed attempts to export the French fighter – South Korea in 2002 and Brazil in late 2013 – the DGA has learned to be careful.

Collet-Billon says talks are more advanced in Egypt, where France could sell up to 24 Rafale fighters, a FREMM frigate and a number of armaments.

The first of these aircraft could be delivered in 2018, although a very impatient Egypt would want “a handful” very soon, which could be delivered in 2015, according to DGA officials.

These few aircraft would relieve the burden of the French government, which is on the hook to fund 11 Rafale jets per year to keep Dassault's production line viable.

To that end, France has planned to order 11 Rafale in 2015, but just four in 2016, assuming export sales will ultimately materialize.

Export is “crucial” to maintaining the current spending scheme of €31.4 billion per year on defense, Collet-Billon said.

“Problems will occur this year if we don't export Rafale aircraft," he said.

-- with Amy Svitak in Paris

Aviation Week



"rival fighter suppliers pose no serious threat to the Rafale bid" - perhaps if the IAF had stopped publicly insisting that there is no Plan B, the MoD's team would have been negotiating from a position of strength. In either case, when it comes to a battle of wills I don't think its likely that the current MoD will bow to pressure, from Dassault or for that matter from the IAF.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby kit » 10 Feb 2015 14:58

The French government seem to be quite confident about its internal intelligence assessment that India would buy the Rafale no matter what ! ..time to show the Frenchies the boot !

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby kit » 10 Feb 2015 15:01

and by the way France very recently signed a military industrial cooperation with China .. is the Rafale on the agenda ? Quite possible the chinese might buy a couple for evaluation purposes :rotfl:

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby pankajs » 10 Feb 2015 15:07

I think this insistence on performance for HAL delivered aircraft is probably due to our experience with the scorpene deal.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby GeorgeWelch » 10 Feb 2015 20:57

pankajs wrote:I think this insistence on performance for HAL delivered aircraft is probably due to our experience with the scorpene deal.


Or it could just be a way to gracefully scuttle a deal that they now see as a bad bargain.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby JTull » 10 Feb 2015 21:02

Full life cycle costs depend on assumptions to be made on maintainability and availability. Any drop in maintainability can be blamed on domestic manufacturer whereas there may be design issues that cause in an environment that is not similar to to France. India was much wider range of climates and that alone could cause some of the issues. Also, lack of critical spares that may need to be imported could be held up dependent on the whim of the supplier to extract the last dollar. This may need to cannibalising spares from other aircraft which will affect both availability and maintainability.

These may be just couple of instances where we may need guarantees to justify the life-cycle cost model used in their reply to the RFP and whichs formed a critical part of the original L1 selection.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Mort Walker » 11 Feb 2015 00:54

I suspect the French govt. may know of some inside track, or at least they did, to think the Rafale deal will still happen.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby arthuro » 11 Feb 2015 23:52

MMRCA Deal: Dassault Confirming to Indian RFP Conditions

French aircraft manufacturer, Dassault is confirming to conditions laid down in the original request for proposals (RFP) in its conduct of negotiations with the contract negotiations committee (CNC) of the Indian MoD over the sale of 126 Rafale fighters.
A senior Indian Air Force (IAF) officer in the know of things told Defenseworld.net Delhi correspondent that negotiations have so far been within the boundaries of the RFP. The aircraft being discussed to be purchased is what was tested by the IAF and not a later model as reported by various media .The officer who did not wish to be quoted said that a good part of the negotiations have been completed including a work-share agreement with Hindustan Aeronautics Limited.

Responding to a question, the official explained that the delay in conclusion of the contract was due to “the CNC being sensitised about issues by various external sources, including Dassault’s competitors, and the former seeking clarifications for them”.A fresh target time frame for the completion of the negotiations has been set for March-April of 2015. Various reports in the past have noted that Dassault was deviating from the RFP conditions and that the MoD had informed the French company to ‘stick to the RFP’.


http://www.defenseworld.net/news/12138/ ... NssVmiG_iM

It seems obvious that IAF has a different position than Indian MoD.

It also quite realistic to believe the CNC is very cautious avoiding a case with a competitor and that the competition would do anything to delay the outcome.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Karan M » 12 Feb 2015 00:25

LOL, if it was up to the IAF alone, they'd take the entire capex of all three services over the next decade and pass it off to Dassault to get their new toys.
Seriously, its just not done, when negotiations are on, for IAF folks to routinely give either interviews which undercut the MOD position (there is no Plan b ) or make these anonymous sort of statements.


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