Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

All threads that are locked or marked for deletion will be moved to this forum. The topics will be cleared from this archive on the 1st and 16th of each month.
RoyG
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5180
Joined: 10 Aug 2009 05:10

Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby RoyG » 22 Feb 2015 03:02

I'm glad these UPA jokers are out. We finally brought in people who can negotiate indian ishtyle. This deal is just too big for the French to back out of. I have a feeling they're going to cave.

devesh
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5129
Joined: 17 Feb 2011 03:27

Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby devesh » 22 Feb 2015 06:57

They might not. I have a feeling both Ind and France are playing a cat-and-mouse game calling each others' bluffs.

Fundamentally, there might be 3rd parties who are whispering selective "intel" to both sides to call the bluff. Either way, this might turn out to be a nasty exercise in relations between India and France.

If Rafale doesn't happen, what are the options? Su-30 has already been heard as an alternative. But Chief Raha is clearly saying that Su-30 cannot be the MRCA. I think there might "emergency meetings" that will probably involve NaMo directly if the Rafale deal falls through. Then the Civ/Mil leadership will have to sit and decide what to do next: there is no way they can restart the process and spend another decade twiddling thumbs. In that scenario, they might decide to do the unthinkable: Govt-to-Govt deal for F-18.

this is pure speculation, on my part. But I'm wondering what is the alternative if Rafale is too expensive, as I'm sure many others are as well.

SaiK
BRF Oldie
Posts: 36415
Joined: 29 Oct 2003 12:31
Location: NowHere

Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby SaiK » 22 Feb 2015 09:23

well, there are ups and downs after parrikar took over, and i am all seeing red on modi's face that rafale folks would not budge too much on 'make in india' [at least that is what i get a feel after aero india 2015].. modi never was happy with full blow imports, and wants make in india happen. 70% import is something he does not want to see. that is a strong stand, and i don;'t think france can get past that line so easily.

now, comes the cost.. and recent issues regarding various aspects of who are the likely screw drivers.. now that leaves a big question on should we be actually doing screw drivers or look at some deep manufacturing capabilities. given some huge bucks, we can establish advanced facilities for LCA mk2, and further on to AMCA, that might equal Rafale in all terms.

Rafale would come, if they France agrees in make in india, and accepts what modi might want them to do.. when visits paris, a fine oppty for sealing the deal or get embarrassing to note, Fr would not bow down on their heavy handed technology and egoistic projections of that is the best thing for India. [capabilities and nothing else India has better ]

I'd see a big win, if France wuld come down on their cost, make in India, and consider some reasonable ToT per RFP, and not to back off on responsibilities. we can't be making deals if two hands don;'t shake

Sumeet
BRFite
Posts: 1518
Joined: 22 May 2002 11:31

Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Sumeet » 22 Feb 2015 11:33

France in new bid to nail fighter jet deal with India

France's defence minister will visit New Delhi this week in a fresh bid to nail a troubled deal to sell 126 Rafale fighter jets which has been snagged for three years and now faces new questions about its cost.

Jean-Yves Le Drian will meet his counterpart Manohar Parrikar and other officials on Monday and Tuesday to prevent the sale's collapse ahead of an upcoming visit to Paris by India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

French company Dassault Aviation won the right in January 2012 to enter exclusive negotiations with India to supply 126 Rafale fighters, with experts saying a final deal could be worth $12 billion.

The idea is for Dassault to supply 18 of the twin-engine fighters later this year while the remaining 108 would be made by state-run Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd under technology transfer agreements with India.

But negotiations have proved fraught, both under Modi's government and its Congress predecessor, while a committee which is looking into the deal has reportedly found that it was not the cheapest option.

France's defence ministry has said the visit will give the governments a chance to discuss "international affairs and defence industry issues", but there is little doubt Rafale will dominate proceedings.

Le Drian's visit comes barely two months after he also came to India for talks with Parrikar when they both agreed to push on with negotiations.

Modi's right-wing government, which won power in elections last May, has been blowing hot and cold about the progress of discussions.

A defence ministry spokesman said during Le Drian's visit in December that outstanding differences "would be resolved in a fast-track manner".

- Doubts over costs -

But the government has also commissioned a report about the project costs, adding yet more uncertainty.

Speaking at an air show in Bangalore last week, Parrikar said he expected the contract negotiation committee (CNC) to submit its report within weeks.

"I have asked the CNC to speed up the process of completion of the report for us to take a decision on the acquisition of Rafale," he told reporters.

India's Business Standard newspaper reported earlier this month that the committee had found the Rafale proposal was in fact more expensive than a rival one by Eurofighter for its Typhoon jets.

The paper quoted defence ministry sources as saying the Rafale deal was "effectively dead" although the Indian top brass is still publicly backing it.

If the deal were to collapse, it would be a huge embarrassment for the French government, which is preparing to welcome Modi for his first visit to Europe as premier in April.

Dassault was able to celebrate the signing of a purchase agreement with Egypt last Monday for 24 Rafales, the first foreign sale of the fighters.

While the company's chief executive Eric Trappier has acknowledged the Indian negotiations have taken longer than expected, he told France's Les Echos financial daily recently that "we are not particularly worried".

One of the main sticking points has been over who should carry the can for any problems with the 108 planes that would be made in India, with the government in Delhi wanting guarantees from Dassault.

Dassault however has baulked at the idea of taking responsibility for the larger Indian-made batch of fighters.

India, which has long been the world's largest buyer of defence equipment, is in the midst of a multi-billion-dollar upgrade of ageing hardware, and recently lifted a cap on foreign investment in defence.

While his government has pledged to push forward with purchases which stalled under Congress, Modi wants to end India's status as the world's number one defence importer and to have 70 percent of hardware manufactured domestically by the turn of the decade.

With clouds hanging over the Rafale deal, there have been reports India could instead buy more Russian-made Sukhoi jets.

But the head of the Indian air force said that the Sukhois had different capabilities and could not be seen as a like-for-like replacement, as he called for the Rafale deal to be expedited.

"Rafale has been selected as L1 (lowest bidder)," Arup Raha said in Bangalore.

"It is important that we have the MMRCA (Rafale) and we need to have it in the quickest possible time".

Raha insisted no alternative plan was being considered at the moment but did not rule one out for the future.


"No, we don't have a Plan B as of now. We are only working on Plan A," he said.

Gyan
BRFite
Posts: 1183
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Gyan » 22 Feb 2015 13:04

Modi has not given any major deal to USA or Japan even though he visited them.

kit
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3967
Joined: 13 Jul 2006 18:16

Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby kit » 22 Feb 2015 13:26

Gyan wrote:Modi has not given any major deal to USA or Japan even though he visited them.


As if poseidons hercules galaxy et all worth about 10 billions are not given ? ..but i see what you mean .. the "strategic deals" like the mega submarine or MMRCA will happen only with Russia or France as has happened before .. but again only if France plays ball on transference of technologies and hold the price line . Crystal ball says Rafale deal can happen but at lesser numbers than originally anticipated .. more sukhois coming up Rafale or no rafale ! plus a sizeable order for mark 2 LCA :mrgreen:

btw the new AESA Captor E seems to have " revolutionary" capabilities compared to contemporary AESA fighter radars ..but doesnt make the Typhoon a contender

JTull
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2737
Joined: 18 Jul 2001 11:31

Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby JTull » 22 Feb 2015 14:55



Gives a good summary of all current news on this saga.

I was quite disappointed that the French weren't reacting to negatives news about the deal being 'dead'. Glad that they finally are. We'll soon know if there's any sincerity as by all accounts the deal is stuck at their end.

NRao
BRF Oldie
Posts: 16814
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Illini Nation

Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby NRao » 22 Feb 2015 17:11

Modi has not given any major deal to USA or Japan even though he visited them.


OT:

Not the way to look at it. Look at what he has done that is India centric and he has done more than would be expected.

With Japan, he has signed on to a quadrilateral spoken agreement. Offered them to participate in the sub deal. Tagged Japan for "infrastructure" (he is leaning on them for pretty much all the infrastructure - granted most of it is civilian, nonetheless it is of huge importance and implications for the military too). He has Japan helping with roads in AP (recall Chinese concerns on this). The recent visit (of Modi) to AP is not trivial and must have been done with some backing of the likes of Japan, etc.

As far as the US is concerned, Apache/Chinook deal, talks on 4 more P-8Is are the smaller of the deals. Expansion of military relations, especially with IN, and DTTI are huge steps. And, that is just the start - much work remains to be done (IF it is done). I would look for Indian participation in the Af-Pak and ISIS too.

/OT

Coming back to the Rafale, IF - as some posters here have claimed - the goings were THAT good, why is the French DM visiting India for the second time in as many months? I say it is good to see that the French come *down* to ground level. Now Dassault need to follow too. Then they all will be on the same level and real talks can begin.

The plane is great, Dassault + France needs a sale, the IAF, which has options, needs a great plane to up her numbers. BUT, the GoI *also* needs to pay the right price for a great product. The recent M2K deal has left a very bad taste in the mouth - the M2K is also a great plane.

Simple as that.

brar_w
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8836
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby brar_w » 22 Feb 2015 18:11

kit wrote:
Gyan wrote:Modi has not given any major deal to USA or Japan even though he visited them.


As if poseidons hercules galaxy et all worth about 10 billions are not given ? ..but i see what you mean .. the "strategic deals" like the mega submarine or MMRCA will happen only with Russia or France as has happened before .. but again only if France plays ball on transference of technologies and hold the price line . Crystal ball says Rafale deal can happen but at lesser numbers than originally anticipated .. more sukhois coming up Rafale or no rafale ! plus a sizeable order for mark 2 LCA :mrgreen:

btw the new AESA Captor E seems to have " revolutionary" capabilities compared to contemporary AESA fighter radars ..but doesnt make the Typhoon a contender


Revolutionary capabilities?

Philip
BRF Oldie
Posts: 20797
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: India

Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Philip » 22 Feb 2015 20:50

US manufacturers do not expect any quick deals with India.Read somewhere.There is much work to be done and competition too.The manner in which the Israelis defeated the Javelin is appoint to consider.With Israel.there are fewer doubts about TOT,sanctions,etc. that plague Indo-US defence deals. Russia and Israel will be our principal collaborators as we move from outright purchases,licence-building to JVs. If you take aircraft alone,we have the MKIs,MIG-29UGs,FGFA,and MTA deals with Russia. Only the Hawk AJT is western as of now,with hopefully local manufacture of the Pilatus trainers to come.

The bottom line will definitely be the pricing .As the DM said earlier,the price of an MKI is half that of a Rafale. The FM alone will red flag any purchase of the Rafale on that score.

NRao
BRF Oldie
Posts: 16814
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Illini Nation

Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby NRao » 23 Feb 2015 03:41

Last gasp.

Last Chance For Rafale-Do Or Die !! Empowered Teams For Non-Stop Negotiations, Rajiv Verma To Represent India-Man To Watch Out For !!

Empowered teams from the French and Indian side would begin non-stop negotiations, to arrive at a decision about the MMRCA/Rafale. Joint Secretary Rajiv Verma (who got this project after Jt Sec Bal's untimely demise), is the man to watch out for, as his decision/recommendation cant be overruled even by PM Modi !

The bone of contention is India wants Dassault to take full responsibility of the delivery of the planes, while Dassault has refused the same for the HAL-made/assembled ones.

It was recently decided that such teams (small in composition) would be formed which would be empowered and would be in a position to take decisions, right there and then, as it was wasting too much time, when the French were holding discussions but needed time to go back home to ask their bosses and come back with decisions. All the best Dassault !!

SaiK
BRF Oldie
Posts: 36415
Joined: 29 Oct 2003 12:31
Location: NowHere

Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby SaiK » 23 Feb 2015 04:19

brar_w wrote:Revolutionary capabilities?

rotating panels? :mrgreen:

trivia:

IAF needs MMRCAs and I am not saying it has to be Rafale.

who said this?

brar_w
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8836
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby brar_w » 23 Feb 2015 04:58

rotating panels? :mrgreen:


Its been proposed before for other programs in the west and is used in some (Global Hawk). They need greater organic FOV for their data-links are not LPI/LPD and are L16/MIDS, as they did not invest heavily in different secure waveforms for large volumes SA sharing through LAN's (IFDL and MADL for example ). Not sure which projects are totally brand new and which are AESA antenna addition to existing back ends (ala Super Hornet)..The Typhoon and Gripen Radars that are only beginning to get going are still lacking some of the advanced waveform capability or electronic warfare functionality that are standard with other western AESA's..
Last edited by brar_w on 23 Feb 2015 17:41, edited 1 time in total.

Gyan
BRFite
Posts: 1183
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Gyan » 23 Feb 2015 09:34

I think it would be better to go for early versions of FGFA (like we went for Su-30s before Su-30MKIs) rather than Rafail. I think Russians will be able to provide first batch of FGFA by 2018-2020, the timeline by which we will get first batch of Rafails.

Philip
BRF Oldie
Posts: 20797
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: India

Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Philip » 23 Feb 2015 09:54

Unfortunately,the Rafale/MMRCA acquisition has suffered from a blinkered vision,not looking at the entire spectrum of the IAF's future fleet strength and capabilities in a fast changing aerospace scenario. Two elements have above all changed the rules of the game.Stealth and the advent of UCAVs/drones,with the assistance of real time targeting through sats,and other ISR assets.Networking between aircraft synergising their joint capabilities with the use of stand-off missiles and smart bombs has increased the kill probability in an increasingly intense EW/ECM environment.

The IAF suffers an acute shortage of numbers,apart from wanting to increase the lethality of every asset.The Rafale deal has languished for years now after the decision selecting it.By now the first aircraft should've been inducted.Even if it signed today,the first aircraft will arrive 3 years hence of a 4+ gen aircraft arriving at almost the same time as the T-50/FGFA! As the cost of the Raffy has gone increasingly up,so has the merit of its acquisition come down,with more cost-effective solutions available with an eye to the future of the FGFA and AMCA. "Shoehorning" a Rafale deal which will beggar the IAF and stunt our futuristic programmes would be an act of folly. Especially if the words of the DM that "we can acquire two MKIs for the price of one Rafale" holds true.A BMos armed MKI with its air dominance superiority would thus also have better stand-off strike capability as well...for half the price!
Extending that argument,one could get an MKI plus at least 2 LCAs for the price of one Rafale.
That too all built in India.Just imagine 378 aircraft instead of just 126 Rafales.

JTull
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2737
Joined: 18 Jul 2001 11:31

Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby JTull » 23 Feb 2015 17:24

Philip, it would help if you compared 'a Brahmos armed MKI' with other swing-wing load to a Rafale with such a load in an operational scenario before concluding which one is superior. e.g., as a naive comparison, a single Brahmos ($2.5mln) equipped MKI is not necessarily superior to a Rafale with 5 SCALPs ($0.7mln * 5 = $3.5mln) or Brimstones ($0.15mln * 5 = $0.75mln).

negi
BRF Oldie
Posts: 13112
Joined: 27 Jul 2006 17:51
Location: Ban se dar nahin lagta , chootiyon se lagta hai .

Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby negi » 23 Feb 2015 17:40

^ While MKI might not be a replacement for MMRCA(remember Rafale!=MMRCA) that cost comparison is lame, no one is selling us a SCALP as it violates MTCR and even if they did it will cost us at least 5-10 times the official price .

Philip
BRF Oldie
Posts: 20797
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: India

Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Philip » 23 Feb 2015 17:51

Are Scalps and Brimstones part of the package? I think not.With MTCR complexities,the range will have to be within 300km and the export price as Negi has said will not be "friendship" rates either.Plus BMos is "made in India".Why would we need a foreign missile ? With the KH series of missiles already in service on the MKI and MIG-29s,there is no need for Brimstone either.Once BMos-M arrives,as is planned with work on it already started,an MKI will be able to carry 5 BMos if required.

In the final run up to the tape,the cost of the Rafale acquisition vs an MKI alternative is going to be crucial.The Indian aerospace industry will not be able to absorb the TOT in large measure immediately. Whereas the MKI is already 70%+ indigenous including material,the first MKI overhaul handed over to the IAF recently,and the TOT has been effectively absorbed as of now.Another 70+ aircraft have to be manufactured,plus the upgrade of the entire fleet,which will keep the MKI unit going for at least 10-15 years. Acquiring more MKIs would be the most cost-effective solution. With the MIG-29 service/support unit also being established from next year for IAF and IN MIG-29s,that bird is another much cheaper alternative.

PS:The fine print about the negotiations are what was speculated before the Raffy was chosen as winner.France to transfer a sqd. or two immediately for the IAF to play with its "toys",and then supply the remainder in a timeframe based upon mutual agreement. The IAF can then say we've got the aircraft to shore up falling numbers asap. The initial aircraft will in time be replaced with new ones.This was done with both the Jaguar deal and the original SU-30s.

GeorgeWelch
BRFite
Posts: 1393
Joined: 12 Jun 2009 09:31

Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby GeorgeWelch » 23 Feb 2015 20:01

Philip wrote:The Indian aerospace industry will not be able to absorb the TOT in large measure immediately. Whereas the MKI is already 70%+ indigenous


Why would Rafale be harder to absorb than MKI?

Also, should you choose the one that offers better technology, perhaps down the road, or the the one that offers nothing new because you already have it all?

Sid
BRFite
Posts: 1651
Joined: 19 Mar 2006 13:26

Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Sid » 23 Feb 2015 20:09

I do not think weapon package is attached to this initial MMRCA deal, else total cost will skyrocket beyond control. Expect another deal worth $$ Billions for weapon configuration.

Few AAM like meteor were not even ready when proposals were submitted by selected vendors.

If possible get AIM 210 for MMRCA :mrgreen:

member_24684
BRFite
Posts: 197
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby member_24684 » 23 Feb 2015 21:09

Sid wrote:I do not think weapon package is attached to this initial MMRCA deal, else total cost will skyrocket beyond control. Expect another deal worth $$ Billions for weapon configuration.

Few AAM like meteor were not even ready when proposals were submitted by selected vendors.

If possible get AIM 210 for MMRCA :mrgreen:


Gentleman from France close to Dassault and A'lA Halloweene said in DFI, deal includes lots of weapon package

Gyan
BRFite
Posts: 1183
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Gyan » 23 Feb 2015 21:20

It seems cost of each Rafale will be equal to 4 Su-30MKIs

GeorgeWelch
BRFite
Posts: 1393
Joined: 12 Jun 2009 09:31

Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby GeorgeWelch » 23 Feb 2015 22:11

Gyan wrote:It seems cost of each Rafale will be equal to 4 Su-30MKIs


No.

Cosmo_R
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3407
Joined: 24 Apr 2010 01:24

Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Cosmo_R » 23 Feb 2015 22:21

negi wrote:^ While MKI might not be a replacement for MMRCA(remember Rafale!=MMRCA) that cost comparison is lame, no one is selling us a SCALP as it violates MTCR and even if they did it will cost us at least 5-10 times the official price .


SCALP/MTCR? It (Storm Shadow) seems have been sold to KSA and UAE and Greece.

fanne
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3453
Joined: 11 Feb 1999 12:31

Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby fanne » 23 Feb 2015 22:24

1 rafale = 5 SU30MKI then?

negi
BRF Oldie
Posts: 13112
Joined: 27 Jul 2006 17:51
Location: Ban se dar nahin lagta , chootiyon se lagta hai .

Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby negi » 23 Feb 2015 23:01

Hello MTCR is for us not for others remember M-11 sale to TSP ? Besides UAE is a munna Unkil did make noise about storm shadow sale to UAE so French and Uk claimed that they calculated the range at sea level onlee which amounts to less than 300 km . MBDA then tried to clean their own potty by saying that UAE version has a smaller fuel tank . We on the other hand are suspected of using PSLV as a ICBM , chootiye sale.

NRao
BRF Oldie
Posts: 16814
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Illini Nation

Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby NRao » 23 Feb 2015 23:33

The Indian aerospace industry will not be able to absorb the TOT in large measure immediately. Whereas the MKI is already 70%+ indigenous


Philip Bhai,

The *whole* purpose of the Rafale deal (outside of the IAF needs) is to get more recent technologies. Recent is in relation to the MKI!!!!!!

Also, take a close look at the FGFA "discussions". That in fact - IMVVVHO - is even more complicated. India now has the MKI, Hawk and now Rafale. I pity the FGFA team from Russia. I bet they have never dealt with the details that they are facing - pure, distilled, DNAed mara-mari.

But, this is all good stuff. This agni pariksha is needed. Burnt flesh is good for the longer run. That smell is what keeps project in line and moving.

nirav
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2020
Joined: 31 Aug 2004 00:22
Location: Mumbai

Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby nirav » 23 Feb 2015 23:40

negi wrote:Hello MTCR is for us not for others remember M-11 sale to TSP ? Besides UAE is a munna Unkil did make noise about storm shadow sale to UAE so French and Uk claimed that they calculated the range at sea level onlee which amounts to less than 300 km . MBDA then tried to clean their own potty by saying that UAE version has a smaller fuel tank . We on the other hand are suspected of using PSLV as a ICBM , chootiye sale.


:mrgreen:

We might get an early indication of the deal happening or not @ this Saturday .. The defence budget outlay should give some clues ..

Also budget wise we are in a real good position all thanks to Shri Abdul Aziz (PBUH) and his fiefdom @ Crude pricing.

Helped knock off a good few billion $$s off the fiscal deficit .. :twisted:

Sid
BRFite
Posts: 1651
Joined: 19 Mar 2006 13:26

Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Sid » 23 Feb 2015 23:44

negi wrote:Hello MTCR is for us not for others remember M-11 sale to TSP ? Besides UAE is a munna Unkil did make noise about storm shadow sale to UAE so French and Uk claimed that they calculated the range at sea level onlee which amounts to less than 300 km .

MBDA then tried to clean their own potty by saying that UAE version has a smaller fuel tank .

We on the other hand are suspected of using PSLV as a ICBM , chootiye sale
.


negi ji, this quote is classic.

Speaking the naked truth with such panache is an art :mrgreen:

JTull
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2737
Joined: 18 Jul 2001 11:31

Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby JTull » 24 Feb 2015 02:35

fanne wrote:1 rafale = 5 SU30MKI then?


If Philip had bothered to see my posts on previous pages he would have seen I'm also keen on MKI+Tejas solution in the interim from the perspective of what is available and doable now versus what needs to be put in place over next 5+years in case of Rafale. All I wanted to say was that 'a Brahmos equipped desi MKI' is not the solution it's being made out to be for any other reason than that. You can't compare it to Rafale on performance/capabilities as they are very different aircraft with potentially very different armament choices. This comparison would have been better served with a reasoned argument based on load out and mission objectives rather that a blanket A is better than B.

NRao
BRF Oldie
Posts: 16814
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Illini Nation

Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby NRao » 24 Feb 2015 04:34

As the world turns..................


Russia Eyes India, Dassault Celebrates in Egypt

MOSCOW, NEW DELHI, PARIS AND WASHINGTON — When Egypt signed an agreement to purchase 24 Dassault Rafale fighters, it marked a milestone for the program: the first international sale of the jet, which has struggled to find a market outside of its home nation of France.

But what should be a celebratory attitude at the company's Paris headquarters has instead turned glum, as the crown jewel of its expansion plans — a $12 billion deal with India that has been in the works since 2012 — now appears in danger, with Russia hovering nearby in the hope of stealing the contract.

If Dassault can finally cement the Indian deal, it will add 126 fighters to a production facing domestic budget cuts. If Russia can come in and undercut Dassault, it would seriously harm the future of the French fighter, while exacting some measure of revenge on France's decision not to deliver to Russia a naval vessel following the crisis in Ukraine.

In 2012, the Indian Defence Ministry made Dassault its preferred vendor to fill its Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft requirement. The Rafale beat out five other competitors — the Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornet, Lockheed Martin F-16, Mikoyan MiG-35, Saab JAS 39 Gripen and the Eurofighter Typhoon, the latter which was the runner up in the competition.

What seemed like a major win for the Rafale quickly entered a stalemate, however, in large part due to India pressuring Dassault to guarantee work produced by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), the Indian firm that would produce the domestic models of the jet. (Under the contract, Dassault would produce only 18 of the jets before turning production over to HAL.)

Such a guarantee puts a burden on the family-controlled Dassault, which thus far has declined to accept that agreement.

Cost concerns also come into play, with the French saying the cost of integration at HAL facilities would be higher than the normal Rafale because the productivity of labor at HAL is low compared to the plants in France. And after visiting the HAL facilities, Dassault officials concluded there are no economies of scale at HAL to help drive down the cost of the platform.

No resolution appears in sight. Richard Aboulafia, an analyst with the Teal Group, gives Dassault a 40 percent chance of landing the deal.

The obvious alternative to the Rafale is the Eurofighter Typhoon, which was the other finalist after the program downselection. Eurofighter has maintained a presence in Aero India both in 2013 and 2015, and would love to win the contract from its French rival. But another contender has emerged — one with strong ties to India and a desire to spite the French.

Red Dawn

Russia has begun a very public campaign to convince Indian officials that Moscow has a better solution on the table.

Sergei Goreslavsky, deputy director of Russia's arms export agency Rosoboronexport, told the RIA Novosti news agency on Feb. 16 that "if [India] needs additional Su-30MKI fighters, then we are ready to work out such an agreement," stressing that New Delhi need only ask.

Goreslavsky is the head of Russia's delegation to the Aero India 2015 air show, which was held last week in Bangalore.
Indian Air Force (IAF) Sukhoi-30 aircraft drop bombs

India already operates a large fleet of Sukhoi Su-30 fighters, some of which have been locally produced by HAL. That argument was pushed by Yuri Slyusar, the recently appointed head of the state-owned United Aircraft Corporation, during a Feb. 19 appearance in Bangalore.

"Which aircraft would better suit the needs of the customer? Our obvious competitive advantage is that India is already making these aircraft right here, right now," Slyusar said. "The factories have been built, the technology debugged, the documents transferred, the pilots, engineers and technicians have been trained."

Russia's RSK MiG has also announced plans to throw its hat in the ring with an upgraded version of its developmental MiG-35 if India rejects the Rafale and reopens the tender.

"We have every chance to compete [for the contract]," RIA Novosti quoted MiG chief Sergei Korotkov as saying at Aero India on Feb. 18. "We have not lost hope that a future tender or competition will be announced."

Ruslan Pukhov, director of the Center for the Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, a Moscow-based defense think tank, said Russia has been lobbying for some time for India to ax the Rafale contract.

"Russia has tried its best to explain to India, as the Eurofighter people have, that it is completely senseless to buy a platform designed in the 1980s for such a huge amount of money," Pukhov said, "especially since the full fleet won't be operational for, let's say, 10 years."

For the money India would spend on Rafale, it could buy from a mature product that they already know how to maintain and operate, Pukhov argued, adding that its combat capability surpasses that of any other aircraft in India's Air Force.

Pukhov, who is also a member of the Defense Ministry's public advisory board, didn't discount that Russia may be working further behind the scenes to influence the situation in Moscow's favor, but stressed the cause is Dassault's inexperience with exporting the Rafale.

"This is totally Russian," François Lureau of consultancy EuroFLconsult and former head of the French procurement office. Until a contract is signed, he said, the Indian deal is seen to be open to competition and the Russians will push the message of French unreliability.

Aboulafia noted that the Russian position is fairly strong, given its industrial presence in India.

"You're looking at two groups who could each decide to walk away," he said of Dassault and the Indian MoD. "India says it loves the Rafale, but has a production line for the cheaper Sukhoi already in India. And while it would be a transformative sale for Dassault, they are essentially telling India it is asking for the impossible."

The strength of Dassault's position depends on whether the Egyptian sale represents a major change in the fortunes of the jet — Aboulafia describes its history as "25 years of trying and multiple defeats snatched from the jaws of victory" — or if the sale was a very specific case.
Indian workers at a Rafale fighter jet stall prepare

The financing on the Egyptian sale, which may involve gulf nations and France providing very favorable terms to Egypt, could end up meaning the sale is a one off, rather than the start of a trend for the jet.

On the other hand, the Rafale is still alive in three major competitions in the gulf region. There is a potential agreement with Qatar, in discussion for as many as 36 jets, as well as a potential 60-ship sale to the United Arab Emirates and a smaller contest in Kuwait.

Landing any of those deals could boost Dassault's negotiating strength with India, or at least embolden the company to cut its losses.

Mistral Fallout?

Meanwhile, Russia's state-run media outlets last week were littered with statements from officials across Russia's defense industry boasting Russia's proven track record of technology transfer and product delivery.

These comments have been juxtaposed against France's refusal to deliver the first of two French-built Mistral-class amphibious assault carriers to the Russian Navy last year.

Under international pressure, France decided not to hand over the ship as a result of Russia's role in the crisis in Ukraine. The move greatly angered Russia, which has derided France as an unreliable business partner since.

Dmitry Shugaev, deputy director for international affairs at state defense holding Rostec, also pinned the Rafale's troubles on France's reluctance to guarantee the jets in comments carried by the state-run TASS news agency on Feb. 16.

Shugaev said France's failure to deliver the Mistral could also be one of the reasons India has expressed concerns over the deal.

The sentiment in Russia is that snatching the contract, or at least getting India to commit to more Su-30s while it works through its problems with Dassault, would provide some measure of solace in the wake of the scorned Mistral delivery.

Russian officials and pundits have gone out of their way in recent months to cast France as an unreliable trading partner, a supplier that may cancel deals at the last minute in accordance with the political whims of its puppet masters in DC, and have promised to pursue legal damages if Paris does not go through with the delivery.

The fact that Russia is pushing the Mistral issue as a marketing tool does not come as a surprise in Paris.

But a Russian message of the risk of a potential French embargo does not stand up to scrutiny because there would be a technology transfer to India that would deliver "industrial autonomy" on the Rafale, Lureau said.

French Senator Daniel Rainer, who sits on the defense committee, said Russia is using the Mistral as a "commercial argument of circumstance." The circumstance is the suspension of the warship and the commercial interest is the Indian fighter contest.

Dassault, the Direction Générale de l'Armement procurement office and Defense Ministry are well aware of the Russian lobbying effort in India, he said.

Dassault's talks with its prospective Indian partner, HAL, "are on the right track", he said.

While the message of French unreliability may not be a major concern at the political level, public opinion about the Mistral suspension shows a different story.

An opinion poll commissioned by La Tribune business news website showed 64 percent in favor of handing over the two Mistral helicopter ships, with 77 percent concerned about a hit on French jobs. DCNS is prime contractor and STX France builder of the hulls.

Some 69 percent saw the Mistral suspension as helping foreign competitors, such as the UK, US and Russia. The poll found 56 percent saw the French reputation hurt by the decision to withhold delivery, La Tribune reported. IFOP polled 1,001 respondents Jan. 9 to 12 for La Tribune.

In comments made Oct. 29, procurement chief Laurent Collet-Billon told the French Senate defense committee that the Russians tell the Indians that the French are unreliable. "The English, too" say the same, he said.

The message does not appear to be working in New Delhi — yet.

An Indian MoD official said the government has full faith in France as a friend, and its surety to transfer technology as promised. That said, Delhi is also not going to turn its back on Russia. India-Russia defense and strategic ties remain intact with the current government under Narendra Modi as well.

"Russia remains a trusted, well-tried weapon supplier to India," the MoD official said.

By Aaron Mehta in Washington, Matthew Bodner in Moscow, Pierre Tran in Paris and Vivek Raghuvanshi in New Delhi. Andrew Chuter in London also contributed

Boreas
BRFite
Posts: 315
Joined: 23 Jan 2011 11:24

Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Boreas » 24 Feb 2015 07:22

scrap rafale, invest a part of saved billion $$ for speedy upgrade of strike capabilities (weapons+sensor+avionics) of tejas. Same would be resuable in AMCA.. at the end India will have two home made aircrafts well versed for strike role.

mirage are getting upgraded, fgfa will be coming in some time, mki, tejas, mig-29, than amca.. add a rafale to all that! speaking of benefits of standardization..

Boreas
BRFite
Posts: 315
Joined: 23 Jan 2011 11:24

Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Boreas » 24 Feb 2015 07:31

I dream of a future 50 sqdn IAF. comprising of 200 FGFA + 800 AMCA.

With large number of AMCA enhanced for strike role and and few dozen in growler like configuration.

First they will be added to reach number of sqdns, than as life cycle of exisitng planes end to replace mig29, m2000, mki and lca.

Mort Walker
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8498
Joined: 31 May 2004 11:31
Location: The rings around Uranus.

Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Mort Walker » 24 Feb 2015 07:49

Let's say the deal is hypothetically signed by April 2015. When will the first Rafales arrive to India and when will production start? When will all Rafales be available? I don't see it happening before 2022. In that time frame, the expertise exists on the Tejas and there is no reason not to have 200 more Tejas Mk.III by then. To be honest, the AMCA and FGFA are a pipe dream realistically since both of those won't come before 2030.

brar_w
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8836
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby brar_w » 24 Feb 2015 07:55

The first deliveries to the best of my knowledge are to begin within 2 years of contract signing, and are to come from the french production line. The more important part is how quickly can HAL get everything in order to start hitting some of its production numbers. That would ultimately determine how quickly the squadron strength is maintained/regained.

kmc_chacko
BRFite
Posts: 326
Joined: 07 Feb 2007 10:10
Location: Shivamogga, Karnataka

Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby kmc_chacko » 24 Feb 2015 08:07

Is there any possibility of increasing order for Rafale like Su-30. I would love to exchange Mirage rather upgrading it.

Don't forget with 270+ Rafale & 270+ Su-30s and additional Mig-29s, Jaguars a strength of 600+ top line fighters have would made IAF a far far superior force for combined PLAF & PAF.

In addition HAL could have got a extra time for inducting and later upgrading Tejas fighters and by 2020 we could have hoped for Tejas Mk2 or Mk3 with PAKFA.

I prefer to see a force of 270 Rafale + 270 Su-30s + 200 Tejas + 100 PAKFA/FGFA by 2025 42 sq of 20 each fighters

brar_w
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8836
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby brar_w » 24 Feb 2015 08:22

Is there any possibility of increasing order for Rafale like Su-30. I would love to exchange Mirage rather upgrading it


I believe there are options built into the contract.

Mort Walker
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8498
Joined: 31 May 2004 11:31
Location: The rings around Uranus.

Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Mort Walker » 24 Feb 2015 08:40

kmc_chacko wrote:Is there any possibility of increasing order for Rafale like Su-30. I would love to exchange Mirage rather upgrading it.

Don't forget with 270+ Rafale & 270+ Su-30s and additional Mig-29s, Jaguars a strength of 600+ top line fighters have would made IAF a far far superior force for combined PLAF & PAF.

In addition HAL could have got a extra time for inducting and later upgrading Tejas fighters and by 2020 we could have hoped for Tejas Mk2 or Mk3 with PAKFA.

I prefer to see a force of 270 Rafale + 270 Su-30s + 200 Tejas + 100 PAKFA/FGFA by 2025 42 sq of 20 each fighters


There is an option for upto 200 Rafales. I don't see where there is any possibility of 270 Rafales.

The Mirages will probably be upgraded, but Jags have to go and the Mig-29s have to be reduced. Ultimately the IAF should think of the Tejas Mk2/Mk3, Su-30MKI and AMCA by 2030. By that time phase out everything else.
India needs a domestic military industrial complex similar to what is in the US. All foreign weapon systems must be phased out. The country has been robbed for far too long domestically and internationally. By 2030 India must have nearly a $8 trillion GDP.
Personally, I would want to see an immediate purchase halt to ALL major foreign weapon system platforms as part of Make in India. The services must buy in India if a weapon system exists. We have that today with the Tejas and Arjun.

Philip
BRF Oldie
Posts: 20797
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: India

Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Philip » 24 Feb 2015 09:38

Read the latest Vayu.Prof. Das has a piece on the LCA,"lemon" or asset,similar to the JSF td. title.In it he gives data,etc. comparing the LCA with the MIG-21,Gnat,etc.Offering both criticism and appreciation.His take is that Mk-2 may not reduce weight and be a fruitless exercise.Reduce the weight of MK-1 now,improving pefformance.No need for the refueling probe (weight reduced).The wing shape of the LCA must also be tweaked for better performance,gives stats.The MK-1 design already flying must be tweaked to the max to improve performance and built in large number.He emphasizes that LCA single-digit production is meaningless,prod. should be 60/yr if we are serious about the aircraft.

Another interesting idea is to start Gnat production again... for export.V.low cost,markets available. I wonder what the cost diff. would be between a locally manufactured Hawk and a Gnat today ,for export,as the Hawk is being touted by some as a poss. GA/close support option. With a host of PGMs,smart bomb kits available,small light platforms offer v.useful cost-effective alternatives to expensive multi-role aircraft for close-support/GA.

Mort Walker
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8498
Joined: 31 May 2004 11:31
Location: The rings around Uranus.

Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Mort Walker » 24 Feb 2015 10:21

Neither the LCA or JSF is a lemon. The MMRCA has to go. The Tejas Mk1 is needed in at least a quantity 200 followed by 200 Tejas Mk2. All of the Mig-21s and -27s must be decommissioned.


Return to “Trash Can Archive”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Majestic-12 [Bot] and 12 guests