The Rafale has a very good chance in Qatar as well.
Did not know that the IAF was willing to fund them too!!!!
How many are they being funded for?
The Rafale has a very good chance in Qatar as well.
Vipul wrote:If Qatar opts for Rafale then it is a good chance for the IAF to buy their Mirage 2000's. We will have a squadron worth to replace the other aircrafts being retired.
Cosmo_R wrote:Thank you Vipul! I knew we'd come full circle after 10 years. In fact, I had suggested this was going to come up as Plan B, earlier in this thread. And, it is a sad testimony to the utter lack of defense planning and political expediency in 2001 when the IAF simply wanted 126 new build M2Ks. However, since that could not be cast as a follow on order, the ghost of Bofors arose and you know we would do anything not to jeopardize the first familia.
JMVHT, the Qatari Mirages are going to need updates/upgrades and the Frenchies will make us pay through the nose as in $40-50MM per.
We would be better served by a war footing approach to LCA MK2 with a built in expansion to a F-16 size fighter in a MK3 version that allows us breathing room and numbers to segue into AMCA. Then of course, there is HAL but that's another story.
Philip wrote:You know the idea that Shiv and I mooted a decade ago,best replacement for an old MIG-21....new MIG-21s!",seems to come to mind every now and again.Tongue in cheek of course,but with some reasoning. There is no aircraft available right now as a cheap replacement for the retiring MIG-21s other than the Gripen,MIG-29s and LCAs,which have yet to pass final tests and with an abysmally slow production rate.
M-2000 upgrades are being done at horrendous expxense,more than $50M /aircraft! How on earth was that passed when new MIG-29Ks for the IN were available for just $32M and MIG-29 deep upgrades ,all 60+ for only under $1B?
The time has really come to bite the bullet. Unlike the IN,where the naval design team is firmly under IN control,similarly unless the IAF is also allowed a deep involvement right from the start into every aspect of aircraft and helo design,since it is the end user,the IAF's ultra-expensive requirements will prove to be a millstone around the services' neck. One cannot understand why there has not ben greater ass-kicking up the LCA/HAL's team to deliver on the umpteenth revised schedule for the LCA. HAL too has been selective in its vociferous support for indigenisation.
When it comes to the BT,it is all up in arms to supply the IAF with a paper plane (to replace the world's best trainer,the Pilatus) which has never ever flown,that too on the abysmal track record of the "crashing" success of the HT-32 and the IJT,which surely must be the world's first "stealth trainer",because no one can locate it at all!
Such frenzied support for the HTT is inexplicable when it has kept mum over the need for a firang MMRCA to be "licence built",when the LCA MK-1 has attained IOC,MK-2 in development and comes in at low cost! When the SU-30MKIs are also being built at home by HAL,why has it not proposed that just these two aircraft (plus stealth aircraft in the future,FGFA/AMCA) could serve the IAF's needs for the future? Is this selective policy due to the irresistible scent of umpteen freebie visits to the fleshpots of Paris for HAL/DRDO boffins ?
Philip wrote:That is what the majority of thinkers are suggesting,but why is there resistance in the official quarters? NO urgency visible reg. LCA prod acceleration,spl. task force teams to achieve results. The IAF seems content to simply wait for HAL to deliver "as per ususal",so that they can claim non-delivery of the LCA and lay their hands on their latest French toy! I agree,in a fleet of around 800+ aircraft,about 350+ MKIs would be sufficient,provided the rest of the fleet did not consist of legacy aircraft tied up with string and duct tape. Just imagine that the MIG-21 Bisons will soldier on until 2025!
NRao wrote:.. Egypt will default.
are the UAE mirages even for sale? they seem to have got F-16-block60 in good number also and using them to bombard ISIS but would hold on to the mirages until they get JSFs most likely
Chief of Air Staff Air Chief Marshal Arup Raha has repeatedly and publicly declared “there’s no Plan B”, that in effect it is Rafale or nothing with respect to the Indian Air Force’s dubious Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) requirement. It merits his dismissal from service, because these words denote gross incompetence, failure to anticipate the unexpected and prepare for it—axiomatic in all military planning and, hence, of leadership. For every plan there is always an alternative plan of action in case things don’t work out as envisaged.
The absence of a fallback scheme is, of course, a ruse by Raha to pressurise the government into acceding to IAF’s wishes for the Rafale, despite defence minister Manohar Parrikar spelling out an alternative—the cost-effective, Nasik-produced Su-30MKI, which won’t require multi-billion dollar investment in another production facility and beats the French combat aircraft by any performance standard.
The prohibitive cost and questionable fighting qualities of the Rafale apart, the unwillingness of the French consortium headed by Dassault to guarantee the aircraft licence manufactured by Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd. (HAL), and to fully meet transfer of technology (TOT) obligations involving Indian public and private sector entities directly or by way of offsets, too, are factors of serious concern. Source codes, flight control laws, and “black box” technologies, including all aspects of the engine, advanced sensors and avionics are likely to be left out of any TOT agreement or worse, paid for but not delivered, if previous defence deals are any guide. Dassault plans on supplying critical components and technologies for the entire production run of the “Indian-made” Rafale to ensure massive recurring profits, whence its insistence that its novice Indian partner, Reliance Aerospace, be part of the local production cycle. One other aspect is equally worrying. HAL assembling Rafale may face the kind of troubles Mazgaon Dockyard Ltd. is experiencing with the French Scorpene submarine where French vendors are delaying the supply of material and hence delaying induction and raising the direct and indirect costs.
The Price Negotiation Committees (PNCs) instituted by the defence ministry to hammer out contracts with foreign firms are to blame for such flawed transactions. Voluminous contracts are drawn up—the Rafale document reportedly exceeds 1,500 pages—but the use of indistinct language deliberately leaves large enough loopholes for even middling technologies, what to speak of the more sensitive “know why” knowledge, to be legitimately denied even as the suppliers pocket the monies the defence ministry is quick to disburse in full at the start. The PNCs need investigating, particularly for the vast leakage of the national wealth through this route.
A recent visit to HAL facilities by Dassault officials is a pointer to things to come. They complained to the US-based Defense News about the low productivity of HAL workforce and lack of economies of scale to argue that Indian-built Rafales will be costlier. Besides indicating that defence PSUs are not proficient in even the low-end screwdriver technology, the French hinted at further escalation of realistic cost beyond the presently estimated $30-$35 billion!
Flawed contracts drafted by PNCs that do not insist on penalties for time and cost overruns, and on staggered payments to fit delivery schedules, moreover, substantiate the fear repeatedly voiced by this analyst, of manipulation of assembly kits and spares supply, for foreign/economic policy reasons by France to ground the IAF squadrons at any time, is real. Such apprehensions are sought to be doused by Paris claiming that owing to TOT India will achieve “industrial autonomy”. But considering the guaranteed high level of French content in the supposedly “indigenous” Rafales, this is a laughable claim.
There are operational reasons as well why Rafale will be a liability. The IAF has always been wary of buying foreign aircraft accessible to its Pakistani counterpart. This was a reason for the rejection of F-16s as MMRCA given that they outfit the Pakistan Air Force (PAF) strike squadrons. Now consider this: Dassault is cock-a-hoop about the likely purchase by Qatar of some 66 Rafales. The Qatari Air Force (QAF) has traditionally been run by PAF pilots, with the understanding that these squadrons will switch to PAF use in any conflict with India. So, IAF Rafales will go up against Pakistani-flown Qatari Rafales that potentially will be better equipped and periodically upgraded with more sophisticated sensors, avionics, and weapons that Saudi Arabia will happily finance, as it did the $500 million deal for PAF’s F-16s and Pakistan’s acquisition of nuclear weapons and missile technologies from China. The Gulf regimes, after all, consider the Pakistan military their palace guard.
And, Rafales cannot be effectively used against China either. Why? Because, firstly, it will not survive sophisticated Chinese air defence; secondly, Dassault won’t allow the indigenous Brahmos supersonic cruise missile to take out targets inside China from standoff range to be integrated with it; and thirdly, because the Rafale is a compromised system for another reason. Pakistan is the prime conduit for Western military, especially aerospace, technologies to China. A Qatari Rafale will be disassembled in Pakistan for Chinese engineers to scrutinise, or wing its way to a Chengdu Aircraft Industry Groupsite for its best features and technologies to be reverse-engineered and incorporated in Chinese combat aircraft, and otherwise permit the Chinese military to familiarise itself with its technical weaknesses and configure appropriate counter-measures and counter-tactics.
Every demerit attends on the Rafale aircraft deal, including its outrageous cost and negligible effects in growing a self-sufficient Indian defence industry. It should be terminated also because of the country’s meagre resources—the capital defence budget of `94,588 crore for 2015-16 remains unchanged from last year, and careful inter se choices will have to be made from among myriad military procurement programmes. In the competition for the defence rupee, the Rafale is eminently expendable. It is time Parrikar told IAF, using the words of former US defence secretary Robert Gates, that “there’s no endless money”. If a Rafale deal is still signed to crown Narendra Modi’s April 10 visit to France, the government will have much to answer for.
Philip wrote:http://www.newindianexpress.com/columns ... 699390.ece
Terminate the Rafale Deal
By Bharat karnad
Published: 06th March 2015
Karnad on the Raffy deal,2 articles.Thw war for and against is reaching summer temperatures!
NEW DELHI — India may not have the funds to seal the deal with Dassault Aviation to purchase $12 billion Rafale fighter planes, according to an Air Force source.
While India plans to boost hike defense spending by almost 8 percent, defense analysts and military officers say it falls short of expectations and isn't enough to buy fresh weaponry.
India will spend US $40.4 billion on defense in the April 1 2015-March 31 2016 financial year, according to the Feb. 28 proposal to Parliament.
That's an increase of 7.74 percent over the previous year. The previous year's budget went up 12.4 percent.
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley gave no additional funds in the "Capital Account Head" of the budget proposals, which is earmarked to buy fresh weapons. The budget included the same amount as last year: $15.5 billion.
"With the stagnation in capital expenditure, I believe there is very little left in the budget to cater to new contracts," said Laxman Behera, research fellow at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses think tank in New Delhi.
Russia Eyes India, Dassault Celebrates in Egypt
Amit Cowshish, retired Defence Ministry finance adviser and defense analyst, said: "It is unlikely that the allocation [under Capital Account] would cater for only committed liabilities."
Said an Air Force officer: "With no fresh money it is unlikely if we can contract the $12 billion Rafale fighter deal with Dassault Aviation of France, nor buy additional aircraft in the next financial year."
The contract is to be paid in installments, with 15 percent due at the signing of the deal.
At best, a $2.5 billion deal finalized two years ago to purchase attack and heavy lift helicopters from Boeing could be inked as the US company has threatened to hike the price if the deal is delayed, the official added.
"The budget allocation may not be sufficient even for contracted projects as they are carry over from the 2014-15 budget on capital account," said Rahul Bhonsle, retired Indian Army brigadier general and defense analyst.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) promised during that election to modernize defense and meet weapons requirements, said defense analyst Nitin Mehta. "The first full budget of the new government announced Feb. 28 is a let down on expectations," he said.
"There are serious concerns over government's commitment to fully budget India's defense and security needs despite statements by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on modernization of the armed forces," he said.
Said Mehta: "Sadly, the budget reflects continuation of the policies of the previous government. For structural changes there has to be greater synergy between the Ministry of Defence and Finance."
Behera said security needs to have support from both the government and lawmakers.
"However, such security needs are to be satisfied within the overall resource availability," he said. "The defense budget 2015-16 has been subject to resource crunch arising out of slowdown in revenue mobilization and greater devolution of resources to the state government."
However, Cowshish said defense still constitutes around 13.88 percent of India's total budget and as such is a major chunk of allocation.
"Defense budget is the second largest single item of expenditure in the non-plan segment of the union budget. One has to keep these facts in view while forming an opinion on whether the allocation is in sync with the promise or not," Cowshish said.
With such a tight defense budget, it remains to be seen which of the ongoing programs will be inked. Nearly $20 billion worth weapons purchase projects are in the mix, including:
• $12 billion to purchase medium multirole fighter jets
• $1.2 billion for six Airbus A330 tankers
• $1.1 billion for 22 Boeing Apache attack helicopters
• $1 billion for 197 light utility helicopters,
• $833 million for 15 Boeing Chinook heavy lift helicopters,
• $600 million for light howitzer guns from BAE Systems
• $200 million for 98 Black Shark torpedoes from WASS
• $350 million for 1,418 Israeli-made thermal imaging sights for T-72 tanks
• $250 million for 262 Barak missiles from Israel Aerospace Industries
When someone gives to X money to buy some medicine, you don't end up buying Old Monk.
What I would like to see:
• $12 billion to purchase medium multirole fighter jets-- nope
• $1.2 billion for six Airbus A330 tankers --nope
• $1.1 billion for 22 Boeing Apache attack helicopters --nope, built some toilets with money!
• $1 billion for 197 light utility helicopters --yep.
• $833 million for 15 Boeing Chinook heavy lift helicopters --yep.
• $600 million for light howitzer guns from BAE Systems -- nope.
• $200 million for 98 Black Shark torpedoes from WASS --yep.
• $350 million for 1,418 Israeli-made thermal imaging sights for T-72 tanks -- werent these tincans the cheap ones? yep.
• $250 million for 262 Barak missiles from Israel Aerospace Industries -- done deal.
what I fear
• $12 billion to purchase medium multirole fighter jets-- yep
• $1.2 billion for six Airbus A330 tankers --yep
and next month too.
The 2S25 is designed to be parachuted from aircraft such as the Il-76 with the crew inside, allowing nearly immediate combat readiness upon landing to provide high firepower alongside paratroopers. Like other tank destroyers, the Sprut-SD is designed to fight and destroy modern main battle tanks such as the M1A2 Abrams or the Merkava IV.
..and then go for a tendering process lasting nearly half a decade to find the lowest bidder which we'll less said the better .... no logic no reasoning except for a transparent veil of apparent selection process . !
The Government not purchasing an advanced jet trainer all these years defies logic. It has to be accepted that the IAF is very serious about getting such a plane, but somehow it has not been able to convince the bureaucracy about the urgency of the need. Other air forces have similar requirements and are able to meet them expeditiously by going about the identification, analysis and procurement process systematically and in a timely fashion. In the Australian Air Force, the procurement was done within four years of the need being felt. This time includes that for identification of the qualitative requirements, selection of the plane, placing the order and obtaining it.
Meanwhile, flight safety is being jeopardised and operational preparedness is suffering, as without a proper advanced trainer many combat exercises have to be restricted or deleted in the training syllabi. Perhaps it is not understood by Government functionaries that just producing pilots to fly fighter planes for displays and flypasts is only a small confidence- building measure for public consumption. What the country pays big bucks for and needs is combat pilots who are trained to fly, fight and win against an adversary. It has to be remembered that in war, there are no prizes for a runner-up.
The IAF had been demanding AJTs for the last 20 years. As a stop-gap measure, it brought 27 second-hand MiG-21 trainers from Kyrgyzstan recently.
A variety of factors prevented successive governments from negotiating an AJT deal; the price was one of them. The government was also keen to diversify its purchases. It wants to use defence purchases for political leverage, particularly in capitals such as London, Paris and Washington.
The IAF finally opted for the Hawk, as it had a proven track record. Most of the other planes on offer were either on the drawing board or had yet to prove themselves
Discussions about the MMRCA/Rafale deal are getting frightfully tiresome with vested interests churning out "news" that say diametrically opposite things. The Russians and people in their payroll are constantly saying that the deal will not take place. Others say something else. I think Indians need a break from this relentless yes-no- yes-no- yes-no news about the Rafale. I hope the damn thing is signed or junked soon - I have lost interest in reading anything further. Indian military enthusiasts need something different to talk about - this has gone on too long
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