Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

arthuro · Post by **arthuro** » 10 Mar 2015 17:47

It Is already known that april will be too short to finalize the deal.

kit · Post by **kit** » 11 Mar 2015 00:20

OTeeeee but Why don't India make Russia a couple of LPDs if so concerned

arthuro · Post by **arthuro** » 11 Mar 2015 15:44

Rafale deal continues to face turbulence (PTI)
[...]"There are some issues which still persist because of which the final contract is pending for such a long time," defence sources here said when asked if the issues relating to pricing and the guarantee clause had been sorted out.[...]
Meanwhile, talking about the likely options in case the Rafale deal were to fall through, the sources said that Indian defence procurement rules do not permit any lateral entry and a fresh tender was the only solution if the contract does not get signed. The sources, however, refused to give a timeline for a final decision.]
They also insisted that the Rafale deal and the joint development project with Russia for a Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA) are two different things.
"There is no link between the two. We want to speed up the process on the FGFA front, but that has got nothing to do with the Rafale deal," the sources said.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 11 Mar 2015 17:47

Pictures Rafale at AeroIndia

http://saidpvo.livejournal.com/382142.html

VinodTK · Post by **VinodTK** » 12 Mar 2015 05:53

With fall in the value of of Euro vs USD, will the over all cost of the Rafale deal go down? When the price was quoted at ~$12 billion, the Euro used to trade at $1.37 for 1 Euro, today the intra-day price dipped to $1.055 for 1 Euro, and as per Deutsche Bank on Tuesday forecast it is expected to fall to 85 U.S. cents by the end of 2017.

shaun · Post by **shaun** » 12 Mar 2015 07:25

If no announcement is made within PM Modi's visit to France , Rafale deal can be considered dead .

krisna · Post by **krisna** » 12 Mar 2015 09:30

looks like rafaele is like katrina onlee. good only to ogle but not own it.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 12 Mar 2015 15:34

If Dassault get the order,they may have to thank Putin band the Greek PM! The Euro's fall is due to the UKR crisis,sanctions hurting the EU more and the Greeks threatening to seize German assets for WW2 war reparations,which Germany refuses to pay for.If the Zero plummets...Ooops!,Euro,that might strangely save the deal.

rkhanna · Post by **rkhanna** » 12 Mar 2015 16:11

The Euro's fall is due to the UKR crisis,sanctions hurting the EU more

Errr. Really?

nits · Post by **nits** » 12 Mar 2015 16:21

We are doing overall calculation on the current Euro price which is wrong. Lets say deal gets finalized in May - now it does not mean we are going to pay all Money on 1st June and be done with it. Money will be paid in various parts till last Aircraft gets delivered.

There will be Milestones for every Payment; small example is how we pay money to Builder for an under construction Flat; you pay money on building of different slabs and final payment is done once you get possession of flat.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 12 Mar 2015 17:04

Philip wrote:If Dassault get the order,they may have to thank Putin band the Greek PM! The Euro's fall is due to the UKR crisis,sanctions hurting the EU more and the Greeks threatening to seize German assets for WW2 war reparations,which Germany refuses to pay for.If the Zero plummets...Ooops!,Euro,that might strangely save the deal.

That's ridiculous on multiple levels. Factually and analytically.

1. The Euro has remained (relatively) weak primarily as a result of slowing growth and low business confidence. The Greek crisis obvious has and had an impact. Not Ukraine. And the weak Euro is essentially to reviving European export competitiveness.

2. EU-Russia trade accounts far smaller portion of the EU GDP than it is the Russian GDP. And the trade balance was tilted in Russia's favour (at least until the oil prices collapsed). The EU & US can withstand sanctions far far better than their Russia, which needs to recapitalize its heavily indebted (in USD/EUR) private sector as its forex reserves (and economy) continue to contract.

3. The Greek govt can threaten all its wants. They have limited leverage and increasing little sympathy. Push comes to shove the Eurozone are confident of handling a Grexit without being afraid of a domino effect (unlike 2008). The consequences for Greece on the other hand (at least over the short term) will be grim.

Its one thing to have a pro-Russia bias quite another to slip towards Russian nationalism.

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 12 Mar 2015 19:08

EUR is falling due to ECB quantitative easing, otherwise known as printing money. Inflation in eurozone is still zero/negative, and short term bunds are yielding in -ve territory.

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 12 Mar 2015 20:33

Dassault, HAL To Be Co-Contractors On Indian-Built Rafales

http://aviationweek.com/defense/dassaul ... lt-rafales

SAINT-CLOUD and PARIS – France’s bid to sell 126 Rafale combat jets to India moved a step closer to reality in recent weeks, with Dassault Aviation and Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd. (HAL) reaching an agreement as to who will be responsible for guaranteeing 108 Indian-built aircraft required under the deal.

The first 18 Rafale jets are to be built in France. After that, India’s HAL would take over production of the remaining aircraft.

"This is the first time Dassault agrees to be a co-contractor," Dassault CEO Eric Trappier said following his company’s annual earnings conference March 11. "Dassault and HAL will both take responsibility for the part they will each build on the Rafale aircraft made in India," he continued, asserting the commitment is in line with the Indian government’s initial request for proposals under the Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) tender.

Trappier’s comments track with those of French defense procurement chief Laurent Collet-Billon in February: "Dassault will not be responsible for the whole contract," Collet-Billon said. "It is a co-management setup," meaning France will not assume full liability for the HAL-produced aircraft, and therefore HAL will not be a subcontractor to Dassault.

The question of production of Rafale aircraft on Indian soil has been one of the main sticking points between Paris and New Delhi in talks over the estimated €10.2 billion ($12 billion) agreement underway for the past three years.

Trappier did not confirm the amount of the MMRCA contract, saying only that Dassault’s offer "stays the same."

The Dassault-built Rafale chalked up its first export sale in February with a contract to sell 24 of the combat jets to Egypt, along with a Fremm multi-mission frigate built by French shipbuilder DCNS.

"The first check arrived at the beginning of the week," Trappier said, adding that three of the aircraft will be delivered this year. He said Paris and Cairo are now discussing delivery rates for the coming years. Dassault is currently producing 11 Rafales a year for the French air force and navy, but Trappier says the factory could raise production to "a bit over 2.5 a month, if needed."

Dassault draws the bulk of its revenue from sales of the Falcon family of business jets. For the military side of its business, the company relies heavily on Rafale sales to the French armed forces, aircraft upgrades and after-sale services, and development of future combat aircraft, including the pan-European Neuron unmanned stealth demonstrator that recently completed flight trials in France.

Additional Neuron test campaigns will get underway this spring in Italy and this summer in Sweden, where weapons drop tests with the Mk. 82 bomb are planned.

Dassault is also using Neuron to inform work underway since November on a Franco-British study of future combat air systems (FCAS), a €150 million ($160 million) agreement that could lead to development of an operational unmanned combat air vehicle (UCAV) in the 2030s.

Trappier said the company also expects to start studies for a pan-European medium-altitude, long-endurance unmanned aerial vehicle before this summer.

"It will cost only tens of million," Trappier said of the study, for which he hopes to garner support from Berlin, Paris and Rome.

Dassault Aviation recorded sales of €3.68 billion in 2014, compared to €4.6 billion the previous year. Adjusted net income amounted to €398 million, compared to €487 million year over year, a decrease of 22.3%.

Exports represented 89% of order intake, with 90 orders for new Falcon aircraft, compared to 64 in 2013. Consolidated backlog stood at €8.2 billion, compared to €7.4 billion at the end of 2013. The "book to bill" ratio was 1.26, benefiting from orders of Dassault’s new Falcon 5X and Falcon 8X.

Falcon net sales reached €2.7 billion in 2014, compared to €3.2 billion the previous year, with a total of 66 new aircraft delivered versus 77 in 2013. Dassault says deliveries are likely to slow further this year to 65 business jets, though a rebound is anticipated in 2017 with shipment of the new Falcon aircraft.

Defense orders amounted to €693 million in 2014, compared to €1.256 billion the previous year. Dassault said the orders corresponded to after-sales and development, while 2013 included orders by the French military for development of the Rafale’s new F3-R standard and Atlantique 2 upgrades.

As planned, 11 Rafales were delivered to the French military last year, as in 2013, and defense net sales amounted to €995 million compared to €1.4 billion in 2013, which included Neuron program sales.

arthuro · Post by **arthuro** » 12 Mar 2015 20:42

Talking about chances that the deal would be worked out ahead of Modi's visit to France next month, the sources maintained the two were not linked.

"The Rafale deal is not linked to the official visit of the Prime Minister. These are two separate things. An official visit is not only about signing defence deals," the sources said.

They made it clear that the makers of Rafale -- Dassault Aviation -- will have to stand by the clauses of the Request for Proposal (RFP) to which they had agreed.

arthuro · Post by **arthuro** » 12 Mar 2015 20:49

Warranty Compromise Agreed on India Rafale Contract

PARIS --- A compromise solution splitting contractual warranties between France’s Dassault Aviation and India’s Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd. (HAL) has removed the biggest obstacle to closing the long-delayed sale of 126 Rafale fighters to India.

Dassault chief executive Eric Trappier confirmed here today that the compromise solution makes each company contractually responsible for its own work on the contract. This is of crucial long-term importance as HAL is due to gradually assume a bigger share of the 108 Rafales it is due to assemble, and ultimately manufacture, in India.
“Now, there will be a shared warranty as each partner will be responsible for its own work, Trappier told reporters here, “and HAL will provide warranties for its own work.” The Indian government has been insisting that Dassault take responsibility for the aircraft assembled by HAL, over which it had no control, and both sides have wrangling over this point for the best part of two years.
This is the same warranty arrangement that is currently in force for the two companies’ work on the ongoing upgrade of India’s fleet of Mirage 2000H fighters, and it is not clear why it was not adopted from the start. A senior Dassault executive said “taking responsibility is the only way to grow up and to gain experience,” and it is what Indian manufacturers must do to implement the governments “Make In India” policy.
For the Mirage upgrade, Dassault is supplying the first two complete upgraded aircraft – they are due to be delivered in the coming weeks – while the rest will be upgraded by HAL in Bangalore. HAL will provide the warranty for the latter, with Dassault providing assistance as necessary.

Trappier was careful to note that resolution of the warranty issue does not mean an immediate signature of the Rafale contract, as this is always a long process in India as many administrative levels are involved. (The long-overdue report of the Contract Negotiation Committee, which is necessary for the Rafale contract to be approved, has still not been released—Ed.)
Dassault has replied to a request for information from the Indian Navy on the naval Rafale M single-seat carrier-capable variant of its fighter, Trappier said, but this aspect has been overshadowed by the main contract.

He also declined to provide any clarity among the conflicting cost figures published in India on the Rafale contract, but he did say that, in euros, its cost has not increased since 2012. And the euro’s depreciation compared to the US dollar makes Rafale more competitive than its foreign competitors, he added.
According to current plans, Dassault is to build and deliver the first 18 Rafales from its own production line at Bordeaux-Mérignac, but HAL will assemble all aircraft beginning with the 19th aircraft, and will manufacture a gradually bigger share of the aircraft so that, by the time the 126th is delivered, it has become practically autonomous.

Trappier also dismissed reports in the Indian press that the Rafale deal will be replaced by a new buy of Russian fighters. “I see that Rafale is a fighter that scares the Russians, but we are not afraid of their fighters,” he said, adding that Russian competitors had been eliminated from the Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) competition that Rafale ultimately won.

arthuro · Post by **arthuro** » 12 Mar 2015 20:53

Indian Navy Submitted an RFI to Dassault about the Rafale M Carrier Capable Variant

Dassault Aviation chief executive officer Eric Trappier announced yesterday during a press conference that the French company has replied to a request for information from the Indian Navy on the naval Rafale M single-seat carrier-capable variant of its fighter.

shravanp · Post by **shravanp** » 12 Mar 2015 21:14

At this point, I would be happy if they go with Rafale, and I would be happy if they cancel the Rafale deal. This limbo is worst. IMHO, Rafale have good strike, SEAD capability which I am afraid Ruskis don't have to offer. If price negotiation works out, that would be the best.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 12 Mar 2015 21:47

AESA Radar for Rafale at AeroIndia ( Pic )

http://i-korotchenko.livejournal.com/994310.html

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 13 Mar 2015 04:00

eklavya wrote:EUR is falling due to ECB quantitative easing, otherwise known as printing money. Inflation in eurozone is still zero/negative, and short term bunds are yielding in -ve territory.

Unlike the Fed and BoE, the ECB hasn't engaged in any substantial QE programs. Its only now that stagnation has set in Northern Europe that the ECB has sanctioned a QE program (which started on Monday I think). Thus far (aside from low interest rates) its (austerity) policy had been limited to asset purchases and limited bond buying, both of which were hugely dwarfed by the scale of the same programs by the Fed.

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 13 Mar 2015 07:12

@ Arthuro, kindly provide url's to your news stories in the future if possible.

member_23694 · Post by **member_23694** » 13 Mar 2015 08:55

A Rafale Fable

http://www.newindianexpress.com/columns ... 710276.ece

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 13 Mar 2015 09:12

^^ a lot of fibs or near misses in the above article, while he takes jibes at karnad, he is not averse to doing an aswatthama himself
"rafale is MMRCA but Su-30 is air dominance fighter"... hmm, wonder then what the Kh-31s, Kh-29s, Griffin LGBs, Brahmos planned, Kh-59s are for?
"Rafale has AESA but Su-30 has older radar tech"... correct, but then again, what prevents IAF from upgrading it further if funds were available (eg if Rafale wasn't there) and why avoid the performance comparison of so called older tech vs the Rafale AESA? reminds me of how folks used to hype up the Japanese first fighter AESA which turned out to be barely equivalent to MSAs
"Rafale better survivability due to state of art EW".. ermm.. Su-30 EW has been upgraded as well & has a pretty powerful SAP jammer & new ESM/warners with dual color MAWS in trials.

point being the selective portrayal of "buy Rafale or we are doomed" messaging seems to be flagging after a while!

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 13 Mar 2015 09:33

while the basic airframe rafale is fine, the french will clean out the bank in terms of weapons which only they will supply like Mica EM, IR and AASM.

so far I have not seen any note of integrating regular GBU-xx type LGBs, SDB, Astra....and ofcourse our vast existing stock of AA11 and AA12 cannot be used as Russia will not be willing and neither the french as it needs work on the radar. neither can the KH31 and KH59.

if we had a domestic family of weapons, the deal could be better .... just integrate them all into rafale and skip buying any french weapons.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 13 Mar 2015 10:02

exactly.
the good air marshal is behaving as if india is some rich nation which can afford to purchase nothing but the fanciest toys in the market to play with. cost effectiveness and ecosystem be darned.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 13 Mar 2015 11:30

The good AM has completely ignored the "(white) elephant in the room",the cost! That the Rafale is a fine aircraft is not in dispute.But looking at the IAF's future force plans holistically,there are other more attractive cost-effective options should the Rafale deal be anywhere in the region of $15-20B. The good AM has also ignored the fact that in March,the first test of an air-launched BMos will be conducted. Secondly,is the IAF not open to any criticism from informed sources? While the DRDO/ADA/HAL have played their part in the dismal,delayed performance in the LCA project,so too has the IAF also been lukewarm about the project for the better part of its development,only coming aboard when realization set in that there were no other cost-effective alternatives for the replacement of legacy MIG21/27s.
The French are now desperate and are compromising on the earlier stand only because of the threat of the MKI edging the Rafale our on many fronts especially its cost.

Some facts about the MKI programme.This year,Irkut will deliver the final kits for the 222 MKIs contracted for in the 4th phase of the programme.In addition,the overhaul facilities for the aircraft ($300M) have been successfully completed with the first aircraft delivered to the IAF this year.India can now overhaul Flankers for 10 nations operating the same and a line of local component suppliers have been identified as well.More than 70% of raw material is now sourced from India.We can now support the aircraft fro upto 40 years according to defence sources.This is a huge achievement and with even more capable upgrades for the entire fleet of MKIs,so that they can also carry BMos,both BMos-A and BMos-M in the future,apart from the entire gamut of air delivered munitions for the type,the MKIs will be superior in strike capability to the Rafale.

If the IAF are so blinkered that they can think only of a "Plan-A",Rafale or bust attitude,and expect the GOI to sign a blank cheque for the Rafale,then it would be better that the IAF was dissolved and the assets en-bloc merged/divided between with the IN and the IA!

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 13 Mar 2015 13:22

Viv S wrote:
eklavya wrote:EUR is falling due to ECB quantitative easing, otherwise known as printing money. Inflation in eurozone is still zero/negative, and short term bunds are yielding in -ve territory.
Unlike the Fed and BoE, the ECB hasn't engaged in any substantial QE programs. Its only now that stagnation has set in Northern Europe that the ECB has sanctioned a QE program (which started on Monday I think). Thus far (aside from low interest rates) its (austerity) policy had been limited to asset purchases and limited bond buying, both of which were hugely dwarfed by the scale of the same programs by the Fed.

Fed QE has finished. Markets react to expectations. ECB announced a €1.1 trillion QE programme in Jan 2015.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/econ ... raghi.html

Japan has been stagnant for decades and the ¥ was appreciating, until Kuroda-san announced his QE programme, and you know what happened to USD/JPY.

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 13 Mar 2015 13:43

Karan M wrote:exactly.
the good air marshal is behaving as if india is some rich nation which can afford to purchase nothing but the fanciest toys in the market to play with. cost effectiveness and ecosystem be darned.

Every stage of the MMRCA process has been sanctioned by the MoD. The BJP has not criticised the process in opposition or in government.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 13 Mar 2015 13:49

eklavya wrote:Fed QE has finished. Markets react to expectations. ECB announced a €1.1 trillion QE programme in Jan 2015.

The ECB's QE program went into effect this week. The Euro on the other hand has been sinking against the Dollar for almost a year now. Some of it you could chalk up to markets pricing in the impact ahead of implementation, but fact is when the ECB's QE program was announced in January, the Euro had already sunk to $1.15, so the erstwhile slide in the Euro can hardly be accounted for by simple money printing, even though the current policy will drive it down further.

JTull · Post by **JTull** » 13 Mar 2015 14:08

Euro is more like $1.059 now.

satya · Post by **satya** » 13 Mar 2015 15:29

Approaching parity if Fed play along.

Kartik · Post by **Kartik** » 13 Mar 2015 15:55

Philip wrote:The good AM has completely ignored the "(white) elephant in the room",the cost! That the Rafale is a fine aircraft is not in dispute.

Hoooly Cow! Are YOU saying that a "good AM" has got it wrong? Could it possibly be...?? It is ! Previously, when such "good AM's" would show similar shortsightedness when making pronouncements on the LCA, all that mattered to you was that they were AMs..

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 13 Mar 2015 16:07

Dassault, HAL To Be Co-Contractors On Indian-Built Rafales

http://aviationweek.com/defense/dassaul ... lt-rafales

dinesha · Post by **dinesha** » 13 Mar 2015 16:47

Rafale fighter jet deal not yet finalised: Parrikar
http://post.jagran.com/rafale-fighter-j ... 1426241179

"Rafale deal is not through or final. If it is at all finalised in future, it will take time. I would not like to comment on it as it is still in the negotiation stage," he explained during question hour.

SandeepS · Post by **SandeepS** » 13 Mar 2015 20:38

Do you really think what the Chief says makes any difference on the decision making process? Its MoD that decides which aircraft to buy or not. IAF only does trials as per laid down parameters, and many a times these parameters get moulded by MoD's diktats. I think it might be helpful to read this BRF article by AM Raghavendran that gives an insider view of the abysmal process on how and who decides weapons acquisition and remind ourselves of the reality http://www.bharat-rakshak.com/IAF/Histo ... Funds.html and then also reflect on the frustration shared by Adm. Joshi of lack of empowerment which led to him taking the decision to resign.

At the expense of over-simplifying, weapon acquisition decisions are made by MoD, not by Indian armed forces. If it was indeed the armed forces that made the decision then wouldn't they have had all the weapons at the time they ever wished for and we will have been more justified to criticise an ACM here, a Gen there? (and maybe saved the exchequer the cost escalation in the bargain). I will have to dig an informative post by Rohit Vats from last year (IIRC) in which he mapped out the various MoD functionaries and their roles, responsibilities & accountabilities...the forces are way down on that totem pole, or Rohit might want to re-post it again to refresh everyone's knowledge.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 13 Mar 2015 20:40

If it is at all finalised in future, it will take time. - Parrikar

Ominous language. I'd be uneasy if I were Dassault.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 13 Mar 2015 21:18

eklavya wrote:
Karan M wrote:exactly.
the good air marshal is behaving as if india is some rich nation which can afford to purchase nothing but the fanciest toys in the market to play with. cost effectiveness and ecosystem be darned.
Every stage of the MMRCA process has been sanctioned by the MoD. The BJP has not criticised the process in opposition or in government.

if that's the case, why is he so worried that the MOD may no longer sanction the same? after all, if its the MOD which is the final arbiter then he should let it make up its mind, no?

facts are that india's defence preparedness needs are huge, and the funds available are limited. each service (with the possible exception of the navy) has been busy seeking to maximize its pie, the overall architecture be darned.

in the process, gold plated acquisitions by one service which can actually compromise greater punch elsewhere are hardly our panacea. if a more prudent mix of acquisitions allows for arty modernization, BPJ procurement etc in bulk then that's the better choice, the good AM's disappointment not withstanding.

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 14 Mar 2015 00:59

^^^^^
The MoD is negotiating. BK's article is puerile nonsense. There was no need to respond to it.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 14 Mar 2015 04:57

FYI only:

A recent report, out a day or two ago, has recommended that France retain their budget numbers, but reduce their forces (by 10's of thousands).

These reductions in addition to the ones recommended and legislated under the previous Prez.

So, I expect this deal to mean a lot more to France now.

On the deal itself, I see India kicking the can and Dassault washing her hands already. That co-whatever has no meaning. Or it just means that HAL is responsible for everything HAL does. ????

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 14 Mar 2015 06:33

I think this means that India will never officially say the deal is dead. In the meanwhile, MOD and the IAF will look at buying other fighters while officially waiting for Dassault to meet the conditions/price laid down. This deal has entered never never land, that is what Parrikar's "if" appears to mean.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 14 Mar 2015 07:38

I think it is unavoidable - for both. It is just that Dassault - I am assuming based on the previous GoI - made some bad decisions. IF Parrikar was there in 2010, the deal - in my vision - would have been signed for $12 billion in 2012/13. Both sides - IMHO of course - had to undo what the previous guys had done and start all over again. From that angle this is great progress.

The Rafale will come - both sides need this deal.

It will cost both sides something more than originally envisioned. To the IAF there will be a higher risk (because of local manufacturing, etc) and to Dassault it is a loss on two fronts: their calculus had a third party involvement, so I expect a loss on control and less profits (than their plan envisioned).

Dassault should never have hatched secret plans and the GoI should have wised up to all these games long back. Both will have to pay for their shortcomings.