Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

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Viv S
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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Viv S » 14 Apr 2015 11:14

Philip wrote:(MIG-29K price $32M)

B.S.

or 72+ MKIs (MP's own statement)!

Compared to a licensed built Rafale delivered by HAL perhaps. For the price of 36 off-the-shelf Rafales, you'd get maybe 50-55 Su-30MKIs, albeit locally built.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Philip » 14 Apr 2015 11:16

A few more from the above BK interview.

Q: So has the government been advised wrongly?

A: Given the enormous price differential between the Rafale and Su-30 options, the decision makes no sense, unless it is that the government of India has bought into the IAF’s argument that it needs to diversify its sources of hardware. All this means that the Indian Air Force and the country are in hock to many more countries, and can be manipulated by them in the foreign policy arena and in crises. I am quite sure the PM was not offered the alternative to consider by the MEA-IAF-NSA combine.

Q: The Su-30MKI has been in service since the late 90s. If it can fill the requirement, then what was the need for the MMRCA (medium multi-role combat aircraft) tender in the first place?

A: You tell me what the need is. In fact, as I have argued, the entire concept of a medium, light, heavy combat aircraft categories are unique to IAF and entirely spurious.

Q: But if you keep buying Russian hardware, you risk being manipulated by them?
A: The reality is this – Russia post-Crimea is getting into deep financial waters and India holds the whip hand in its reins with Moscow, which is not the case with our reins with France.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby sarkar » 14 Apr 2015 11:53

Now HAL has all the time and manpower in world to work on Tejas on full speed. They can't make excuses now.
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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Viv S » 14 Apr 2015 11:53

Philip wrote:(MIG-29K price $32M)


I've heard you repeat this over and over again. And I've corrected you over and over again. Close to dozen times I'd say.

India, Russia to ink $1.2 bn deal for 29 more MiG-29Ks
Russia Ready to Send More MiG-29K Fighters to India (Same figure repeated)
Navy to induct Russia's MiG-29K fighter jets (Same figure repeated)

That's 29 fighters for $1.2bn. $41.5 mil each. Confirmed by multiple sources. What part of this calculation are you finding hard to absorb?

^ The above figure dates back to 2010. A MiG-29K ordered in 2016 will be close to $60 mil per unit. More if it incorporates upgrades like an AESA.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Altair » 14 Apr 2015 12:02

Philip wrote:Ciu Bono?
A;France ,the IAF and the Looney Tunes!

My Thoughts
I think in the long term its the Russians who will benefit out of this deal.
There are other National priorities to keep an eye on and Russia is the only country who can give India that Technology edge. Their contribution to Arihant and Chaandrayaan will not be ignored. Also, the geopolitical realities must also be considered. Invincible Pigeon was not in France and Germany for sight seeing. There may be lot of undercurrent which we may be acutely unaware off. Any future mess in "soothiya rapekiya" by current King or his dozen a dime cousins and we will be dealing directly with Kremlin for our Oil supplies. This G-G deal will set a tone for many deals in pipeline with Russians. More bhaav to Mig29s, FGFA and MKIs. I love Rambha anyways..
Modi Mantra "More Planes per Billion Rupees"..

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby kit » 14 Apr 2015 12:07

Altair wrote:
Philip wrote:Ciu Bono?
A;France ,the IAF and the Looney Tunes!

My Thoughts
I think in the long term its the Russians who will benefit out of this deal.
There are other National priorities to keep an eye on and Russia is the only country who can give India that Technology edge. Their contribution to Arihant and Chaandrayaan will not be ignored. Also, the geopolitical realities must also be considered. Invincible Pigeon was not in France and Germany for sight seeing. There may be lot of undercurrent which we may be acutely unaware off. Any future mess in "soothiya rapekiya" by current King or his dozen a dime cousins and we will be dealing directly with Kremlin for our Oil supplies. This G-G deal will set a tone for many deals in pipeline with Russians. More bhaav to Mig29s, FGFA and MKIs. I love Rambha anyways..
Modi Mantra "More Planes per Billion Rupees"..


Not sure of how much technological edge the Russians can keep up vs the west in the long run !

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Altair » 14 Apr 2015 12:12

kit wrote:Not sure of how much technological edge the Russians can keep up vs the west in the long run !

Brahmos-II is still the most potent hypersonic cruise missile system in the world. The Akula is still the most affordable boat and most silent in its class. We need at-least a half a dozen more of these for just the eastern side. Who is going to give us? Not to mention, If we are planning for Manned space missions we need Russia help and they have been helping us.
India needs Russia just as Russia needs India in the next decade.
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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby prabhug » 14 Apr 2015 12:14

Happy Day :) Our Expertise is killing brochures.Will it move us close to russians again or we are going it make ourselves.I am keeping fingers crossed

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby GeorgeWelch » 14 Apr 2015 12:16

Philip wrote:
Q: But if you keep buying Russian hardware, you risk being manipulated by them?
A: The reality is this – Russia post-Crimea is getting into deep financial waters and India holds the whip hand in its reins with Moscow, which is not the case with our reins with France.


Who has more control over Russia: China or India?

Hmmmmm

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Singha » 14 Apr 2015 12:22

lifecycle cost of western fighter will be lower than su30 because the airframe will last longer and so will the engines. so MLU can be delayed and less number of new engines needed over its lifecycle. mtbf of most systems will be higher.
the onlee downside are political and upfront 50% costlier and spares more costlier. but you get what you pay for.

we see the Mirage-III still soldiering on around 45 years later...same for M2K..ours are pretty elderly at 30 yrs old but still going for a upg and will last another 15 yrs for sure.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby member_20453 » 14 Apr 2015 12:28

http://ajaishukla.blogspot.be/2015/04/m ... otine.html

“Make in India” has a nice patriotic air to it, especially when Prime Minister Modi tells an international audience at the Aero India 2015 show in Bengaluru that “India will emerge as a major global centre for defence industry”, with aerospace the sun that lights this new dawn. Successive Congress-led and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led governments have looked to $10 billion worth of offsets arising from India’s tender for 126 Rafale fighters to galvanise India’s aerospace ecosystem. Indian negotiators had made it clear to Dassault that it must lower prices and increase indigenisation to win that tender. Yet, it is now clear this is not to be. With Dassault reeling on the ropes, Mr Modi last week scuppered the negotiations by presenting France with an order for 36 Rafale fighters. His apparent wish for a successful summit drove three weeks of frenetic New Delhi-Paris talks that handed a delighted Dassault an unexpected knockout victory.

Essentially, Dassault has dragged out negotiations until New Delhi’s need increased, and the wish to seem strong on defence converged with the desire to make a diplomatic splash in Paris. At that point the French were rewarded for their obstinacy with exactly what they wanted --- an order for fully built aircraft without the need to transfer technology. Says a keen observer of Indian defence procurement: “All vendors are now clear that ignoring India’s demands long enough ends in a reward that makes all Christmases come at once. This doesn't bode well for New Delhi in that next negotiation on whatever.”

Effectively, New Delhi, Paris and the IAF agreed that a bird in the hand was worth two in the bush. Inking a government-to-government agreement to bypass the deadlocked negotiations for 126 Rafales, the IAF would get 36 fully-built Rafales and, inevitably, buy 18 more as “options”, settling for three Rafale squadrons instead of the six squadrons of medium multi-role combat aircraft (MMRCA) earlier visualised. Done away with was the tiresome prospect of building 108 of those 126 fighters in Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL). Instead, New Delhi followed the Mirage 2000 model of the 1980s, when an initial purchase of two squadrons in 1983 was followed up with a few more aircraft to make up a third squadron. The Mirage 2000 was never built in India, just as the Rafale will never be.

After three days of silence, Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar on Monday stated the tender for 126 fighters was dead, and procurement would continue on the government-to-government route alone. His ministry tweeted: “G-2-G route [is] better than the [open tender] path for acquisition of strategic platforms”. It is unclear whether this puzzling statement means that Indian defence procurement would henceforth follow only the G-2-G route; or whether he means that his ministry retains the discretion to arbitrarily scrap a tender at any time and follow a different path. For the spurned aircraft vendors, who had each spent an estimated $50 million on the tender processes and trials, this is an important question.

In any case, the figures had already made clear that further purchases were a pipedream. Each of the 36 Rafales now requested would cost some $150-180 million dollars along with its basic armaments and payload. Even if we accept the bare-bones figure of $125 million that government spin-doctors will put out, 36 Rafales would cost $4.5 billion, and 54 Rafales $6.75 billion. Paid out over seven years, that would add Rs 4,000-6,000 crore annually to the IAF capital budget, which already accounts for a third of all modernisation funds (Rs 31,818 crore out of 94,583 crore in 2015-16). With this already a stretch, where is the scope for another $18-20 billion contract for 126 more Rafales, which would add another Rs 15,000 crore to the IAF’s annual procurement budget.

To divert attention from this the government insinuates Paris was pressured into selling 36 Rafales at a (so far, inexplicably, secret) price that is cheaper than the one being negotiated in Delhi. This is laughable. Even a defence novice knows that buying off-the-shelf is inherently cheaper; since the vendor is no longer required to supply proprietary technology or intellectual property, and is spared the risk, effort and expense of establishing production abroad and standing guarantee for products built there. New Delhi has spared Dassault all this, ensuring in the process that Indian defence industry (especially HAL) derives no technology benefit from buying the Rafale. The IAF will remain dependent on Dassault for maintenance and spares and, two decades hence, when the Rafale needs to be modernised, India will pay more for the upgrades than it paid for the Rafale itself --- just as the IAF is currently doing for upgrading the Mirage 2000.

To justify handing out billions to a French company that is struggling to survive, rather than directing the money towards India’s fledgling aerospace industry, the government has deployed the tired bogey of national security, citing “the critical operational necessity of fighter jets in India”. Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar had declared that these 36 Rafales would enter IAF service within two years. Apparently the government has a two-year threat assessment that requires two squadrons of Rafales so urgently that we must abandon a decade-long (and widely-praised) selection process right at the point of culmination.

What remains unclear is how Mr Parrikar imagines these 36 Rafales would be delivered to the IAF within two years. Currently, Dassault is building barely one Rafale every month for its sole customer, the Armee de l’Air, as France calls its air force. Ramping up fighter production requires a lead time of at least 18 months, during which Dassault’s sub-vendors --- Thales, Safran and some 500 sub-contractors --- would ramp up production of engines, avionics, etc to meet India’s demand (and Egypt’s contract for 24 aircraft, when signed). Only after this supply chain cranks into higher gear will the Rafale roll off the lines faster. Given France’s desperation to export the Rafale, it is entirely possible that the Armee de l’Air suspends its own requirements and diverts Dassault’s entire production to India (and Egypt). Even so, it would be a manufacturing miracle if the IAF receives its 36 Rafales in less than four years. On August 8, 2014, then defence minister, Arun Jaitley, told parliament that Dassault would take three to four years to deliver 18 Rafales in flyaway condition. Mr Parrikar inexplicably promises twice that number in half the time.

Another troublesome question hanging over this handsome present to Dassault is: once Mr Modi decided to bypass the deadlocked August 2007 tender, why was Dassault awarded a “single-vendor” contract? The Eurofighter Typhoon had met every IAF requirement in its evaluation trials. At the very least, Eurofighter should have been invited to submit a parallel bid for 36 Typhoons in flyaway condition. Apart from the possibility of getting the Typhoon cheaper and more quickly than the Rafale, introducing competition into the bidding --- as the defence procurement procedure explicitly recognises --- would almost certainly have driven Rafale’s bid lower.

Like in all defence deals, the market place is abuzz with speculation. Anil Ambani, who attended Mr Modi’s meeting with defence CEOs in Paris, reportedly held a long discussion with Dassault chief, Eric Trappier. With the procurement of 36 Rafales not bound to HAL as the tender for 126 fighters was, how are new players positioning themselves to benefit from New Delhi’s turnaround. The coming days will tell.
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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Austin » 14 Apr 2015 12:28

Viv S wrote:
Philip wrote:(MIG-29K price $32M)


I've heard you repeat this over and over again. And I've corrected you over and over again. Close to dozen times I'd say.

India, Russia to ink $1.2 bn deal for 29 more MiG-29Ks
Russia Ready to Send More MiG-29K Fighters to India (Same figure repeated)
Navy to induct Russia's MiG-29K fighter jets (Same figure repeated)

That's 29 fighters for $1.2bn. $41.5 mil each. Confirmed by multiple sources. What part of this calculation are you finding hard to absorb?

^ The above figure dates back to 2010. A MiG-29K ordered in 2016 will be close to $60 mil per unit. More if it incorporates upgrades like an AESA.


Last year Russian Airforce procured 16 Mig-29SMT for a total cost of $495 million each costing ~ $31 million

http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/ ... 9smt-order

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby member_20453 » 14 Apr 2015 12:34

Interesting take from Shukla. After reading this, seems to me Make in India is dead for Rafale, will we ever be able to order/afford more than 54 Rafales is a valid point. More so, rightly said EF needs to be allowed back in the game, I am sure they will be more than willing to provide a valid counter offer in 90 days. Best to have a valid fair fight and may the best G2G offer win. Lets keep in mind both aircraft cleared trials.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Kartik » 14 Apr 2015 12:35

Looks like this direct buy will be truly expedited..but am well and truly amazed if HAL execs actually uttered such lines about not having done any groundwork on their part to set up the assembly line.


India to Sign Rafale Contract By June


PARIS --- French Defense Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian is to shortly travel to India to iron out the details of the direct sale of 36 Rafale fighters for the Indian Air Force, with a view to signing the contract during the Paris air show in mid-June.

Negotiations will continue in parallel for the local production of at least 108 Rafale in India, although it can no longer be assumed that state-owned Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL) will be automatically involved [wait and see, in any case, not under MMRCA]. Dassault had originally planned to team with India’s privately-owned Reliance group and, in the wake of the April 10 announcement of a direct purchase, HAL officials made remarkably lackadaisical statements to Indian media:
“We did not initiate any concrete step at the HAL for manufacturing the planes here”, one HAL official told the India Tribune, adding that “After all, there was never much clarity on whether the deal with Rafale would be finally signed.” The official also revealed that HAL had done remarkably little to prepare for Rafale production: “There was never any question of acquiring land or bring together a team for MMRCA”, he said.

Given that Egypt, which has just ordered 24 Rafales, and India are both in a hurry to receive their aircraft, France will turn over to them its next 49 delivery slots, and will resume its own deliveries after 2019.
Dassault currently builds Rafales at a rate of 11 a year, and needs about three years to double it.

Indian Defense Minister Manohar Parrikar told reporters in New Delhi on Saturday that "It may take two to two-and-a-half years to get the first plane……Fly-away means not tomorrow, it has to be designed as per India's need, plus there is a requirement of working out the price” which he also said would be about 4 billion euros.

As we noted on Friday, a direct purchase will resolve most of the bottlenecks that have blocked the MMRCA contract negotiations over the past three years, and which mostly focus on the price of the 108 Indian-made aircraft and on who would provide their contractual warranty. The fundamental problem, however, is that by codifying and closely regulating as many aspects of defense procurement as it could, India’s previous government created a web of red tape so complex and so arcane that mutually-acceptable defense deals have become virtually impossible.

Another – and so far unsaid - factor is that HAL’s work-force is not yet capable of assembling aircraft as advanced as Rafale, and the Indian government appears to have realized that it was insisting on an expensive and time-consuming industrial fantasy that it would probably be unable to implement in the short term. Finally, a direct purchase would elegantly sidestep thorny coproduction issues, give India fixed, firm prices guaranteed by the French government, and relieve the current pressure to conclude a license production agreement that suits neither side.


India to sign contract for first 36 Rafale by June

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Viv S » 14 Apr 2015 12:41

Austin wrote:Last year Russian Airforce procured 16 Mig-29SMT for a total cost of $495 million each costing ~ $31 million

http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/ ... 9smt-order


Last year the Russian Air Force also ordered 7 Su-30SMs for a total cost of $331 million, each costing ~ $47 million.

http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/ ... m-fighters

Who knows what is including and omitted in those prices. What matters to us is what price India pays for the aircraft. And that is certainly in excess of the $31 mil for the MiG-29K and $47 mil for the Su-30MKI.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Austin » 14 Apr 2015 12:42

Lic production and TOT for 100 more Rafale is a must , we need to support these beauties across life cycle and dont have to run to france for spares , MRO , upgrade.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Austin » 14 Apr 2015 12:44

Viv S wrote:
Austin wrote:Last year Russian Airforce procured 16 Mig-29SMT for a total cost of $495 million each costing ~ $31 million

http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/ ... 9smt-order


Last year the Russian Air Force also ordered 7 Su-30SMs for a total cost of $331 million, each costing ~ $47 million.

http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/ ... m-fighters

Who knows what is including and omitted in those prices. What matters to us is what price India pays for the aircraft. And that is certainly in excess of the $31 mil for the MiG-29K and $47 mil for the Su-30MKI.


We cannot just guess and come with arbitrary price ........ atleast we know the MKI Made in India cost $60 million.

Mig-29 would certainly be cheaper but how much is any bodys guess , If I have to do the same guess work which you are doing I would says 29K/SMT would cost around $40-45 million .....again its all guess work

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Austin » 14 Apr 2015 12:46

I wont take Mr Shukla value on Price of Rafale with any degree of reliability .....he has the tendency to pull out prices right out of his aarse if I may say so.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Viv S » 14 Apr 2015 12:51

Austin wrote:We cannot just guess and come with arbitrary price ........ atleast we know the MKI Made in India cost $60 million.

Mig-29 would certainly be cheaper but how much is any bodys guess , If I have to do the same guess work which you are doing I would says 29K/SMT would cost around $40-45 million .....again its all guess work


Forget arbitrary prices and guesswork. The actual contract we signed with Russia in 2010 was for MiG-29Ks priced at $42 million each. How can they be any cheaper in 2015-16, (let alone a full $10 mil lower)?

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby member_20453 » 14 Apr 2015 13:00

Austin wrote:I wont take Mr Shukla value on Price of Rafale with any degree of reliability .....he has the tendency to pull out prices right out of his aarse if I may say so.


Sure but the prices being mentioned now are not that un-realistic, I do not expect the rafale to cost anything less than 100 million euros per bird. But, here is the silly thing, why continue with Dassault alone, why not bring in the EF? Why not allow for a direct buy face off, as said I am sure EF consortium can provide a good counter offer by June. Moreso, the production rate of the EF is much faster at 35 per year at the moment. We'd have more birds in hand in 2-3 years than Rafale. As said, it would take 2-3 years to increase production for the Rafale while with EF with some adjustment in deliveries we can have a squadron in 3 years.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Viv S » 14 Apr 2015 13:01

Austin wrote:I wont take Mr Shukla value on Price of Rafale with any degree of reliability .....he has the tendency to pull out prices right out of his aarse if I may say so.


Its a perfectly reasonable number ($150-180M incl. weapons). Even if we go with official $125M for the aircraft, the cost of munitions will easily take the total well past $150M.
MICA: $2.5M x 8-10 = $20-25M
Meteor: $4M x 4-6 = $16-24M.
AASM - ?
SCALP-EG - ?

Of course, if the actual price overshoots the estimates we may be looking at a unit cost in excess of $200M.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Singha » 14 Apr 2015 13:05

as per wiki the last batch of 42 we ordered from HAL in 2012 cost $102 mil each, not $60 mil

>> By August 2010, the cost increased to $4.3 billion or $102 million each ...

another report on web says $75 mil each

and this is before any weapons pkg.

---
Oct 23/14: Readiness. According to India’s Business Standard, the readiness rate for IAF SU-30MKIs has risen from 48% before 2013 to around 55%, meaning that 87 of 193 fighters are grounded at any one time. The paper cites MoD figures and documents that show 20% of the fleet (about 39) undergoing 1st line and 2nd line maintenance by the IAF, another 11-12% (about 22) undergoing overhaul at HAL, and 13-14% (about 26) grounded waiting for major repairs.

What’s interesting is that HAL is beginning to push back against the IAF, offering to take most maintenance off of the IAF’s hands under a Performance Based Logistics (PBL) arrangement that would pay HAL for fighters fit to fly, instead of paying for parts and labor. PBL would threaten a lot of military jobs, so the IAF has resisted such offers for the SU-30MKI and Hawk Mk.132 fleets. But HAL is touting the possibility of a 20% absolute improvement, under a contract structure that directly links pay and performance. That’s 2 full operational squadrons worth.

Meanwhile, the current arrangement continues, with the IAF vastly underspending on spares (INR 500 million per year, vs. INR 34.5 billion at a standard 5%/year rate), and spares worth INR 4 billion stockpiled by HAL at Nashik. Even if the IAF doesn’t adopt PBL, HAL would like to see 5 years worth of spares stockpiled. Most of the spares must still come from Russia, and surge capability is very poor. Sources: India’s Business Standard, “Govt takes note of Su-30MKI’s poor ‘serviceability'”
-----

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby vina » 14 Apr 2015 13:08

Anujan wrote:Mirage 2000 performance was the decisive edge during Kargil. The strike package of Mig-29 escorts and Mirage 2000 precision bombing is what shifted the air war decisively.


The M2K's role in Kargil was precision strike,which it performed well. What is ironic and interesting is that in an airforce with a large fleet of dedicated strike aircraft , i.e. , Jaguar and Mig 27, it is actually a modern multi role aircraft with ground strike as SECONDARY capability could do the job far better than the dedicated strikers !

The Jaguar's sights could not even come on, above a certain altitude (whatever it was) and the Mig 27 couldn't do the strikes with any reasonable accuracy. The realisation at the IAF that their dedicated strike fleet was useless at tactically important situations that their enemy could use to his advantage, saw the Mig 27 and Jaguar upgrade programs (with tech flowing back from the LCA into legacy systems) and closed that gap.

Now with the Jags and Mig 27s upgraded, the need for M2Ks to shoulder the precision strike all by themselves doesn't exist. The tech spin off from the LCA program plugged it. So what is needed now is batch and bulk replacement of Mig 21s, Mig 27s and Jaguars.

My guess is that the IAF is primarily looking for the Rafale as a multirole Jaguar replacement and also the M2K replacement. You don't need that. We already have a SU-30 that flies further , carries more than an Jaguar and M2K and is already multirole. The Tejas can effectively replace the Mig 21s and Mig 27s (these are more tactical fighters).

But anyways, even by replacing legacy dedicated strikers, fighters , with multirole weapons, with Su 30 MKI and Tejas Mk1/2 you are deploying far far more capable airframes and sensors than earlier, and also , effectively you are making the entire airforce multirole and increasing the number of airframes in the strike and fighter roles many fold. You really don't need the goldplated Rafale. It doesn't fit anywhere , other than saying it is a "better" multirole plane which does a particular role X better than an SU 30 or Tejas.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Austin » 14 Apr 2015 13:09

Viv S wrote:
Austin wrote:We cannot just guess and come with arbitrary price ........ atleast we know the MKI Made in India cost $60 million.

Mig-29 would certainly be cheaper but how much is any bodys guess , If I have to do the same guess work which you are doing I would says 29K/SMT would cost around $40-45 million .....again its all guess work


Forget arbitrary prices and guesswork. The actual contract we signed with Russia in 2010 was for MiG-29Ks priced at $42 million each. How can they be any cheaper in 2015-16, (let alone a full $10 mil lower)?


Yes it wont be cheaper but it wont be $60 million either .....I would still put the cost at ~ $45 million may be in worst case + $3 million ~ $47 million , but then there is no way to know the exact cost.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Austin » 14 Apr 2015 13:11

Viv S wrote:
Austin wrote:I wont take Mr Shukla value on Price of Rafale with any degree of reliability .....he has the tendency to pull out prices right out of his aarse if I may say so.


Its a perfectly reasonable number ($150-180M incl. weapons). Even if we go with official $125M for the aircraft, the cost of munitions will easily take the total well past $150M.
MICA: $2.5M x 8-10 = $20-25M
Meteor: $4M x 4-6 = $16-24M.
AASM - ?
SCALP-EG - ?

Of course, if the actual price overshoots the estimates we may be looking at a unit cost in excess of $200M.


I would wait for MOD to put out official figure on Rafale Deal........ we should get that in few weeks once deal gets signed.

Mr Shooklaw has a dubious reputation on this matter and just invents figures from his well.......

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Philip » 14 Apr 2015 13:19

The price for our French fillies have been quoted as either "$4B" or "$5B".This means that the price will be nothing less than $120M to $140M approx. That is a far cry from the $40M+ or $60M+ which are the conservative figures for MIG-29s or MKIs. Even if they are $50M and $75M respectively,they are infinitely cheaper than the Rafale at $130M-$150M ,a higher being mentioned in above posts. One can clearly see that we could've obtained approx. 3 MIG-29s or 2 MKIs for the price that we are getting for just one Rafales. In addition,the entire infrastructure already exists in India for manufacture/uogrades,support and training for these two aircraft,surely more billions saved? In addition,the first total overhaul of an MKI was done by HAL earlier this year. We will never be able to overhaul a Rafale ever with this deal,at France's mercy forever!

On the cost aspect of the deal,there is simply no justification for it. Moreover,what will it do to the entire strategy,mantra,goal of indigenisation of our defence needs,of which 70% is bought from abroad? What lesson does this give the IA and the IN too? Will the IA will now demand the Armata tank because it is superior ( like a 5th-gen stealth fighter) instead of the Arjun? Why must we then adopt "make-in-India" the P- 75I subs,when it will be cheaper buying them outright from abroad as MDL is busy with building Scorpenes ,late by 3+ years and HSL busy with building our N-subs? The ripple and cascade effect that this decision is going to have on our entire indigenous programmes has the potential to be an "unmitigated disaster" for the nation's self-reliance in defence weaponry and systems,as this deal has been described.
Last edited by Philip on 14 Apr 2015 13:30, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby member_20453 » 14 Apr 2015 13:28

Austin wrote:I wont take Mr Shukla value on Price of Rafale with any degree of reliability .....he has the tendency to pull out prices right out of his aarse if I may say so.


Sure but the prices being mentioned now are not that un-realistic, I do not expect the rafale to cost anything less than 100 million euros per bird. But, here is the silly thing, why continue with Dassault alone, why not bring in the EF? Why not allow for a direct buy face off, as said I am sure EF consortium can provide a good counter offer by June. Moreso, the production rate of the EF is much faster at 35 per year at the moment. We'd have more birds in hand in 2-3 years than Rafale. As said, it would take 2-3 years to increase production for the Rafale while with EF with some adjustment in deliveries we can have a squadron in 3 years.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Austin » 14 Apr 2015 13:36

Not being un-realistic is not the same as being factual ......Shuklaw had last year mentioned the MKI cost at $75 million when we know from MOD latest figure its $60 million.

Like I said Shuklaw cannot be depended for thing like price unless he direcly quotes that can be verified.

So lets wait for MOD to come with factual price once deal gets signed.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby hnair » 14 Apr 2015 13:39

deejay wrote:There is some talk of a developing a new base in South India. But so far it is talk.


True. The Kayathar AFB was mentioned back in 2009

It is likely to station Su-30 MKI or MRCA, if not another LCA squadron. Kayathar will, however, be the command’s principal base with an area of about 1,700 acres.


It seem to be the equivalent of Karwar-Seabird project of IAF. Seem to take decades to fruition. We will hear a lot, until cheen starts tarring up some island nearby and MoD wakes up

(Some local jingos, even petitioned both Central and State gubmints, to resurface a "lost road", Kottur-Ambasamudram road through the forests and ghats, which existed till 50 years ago and still exists as a hiking trail. So the SAC HQ travel time is cut by 2 hours or so, from the present 4 hours :( )

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby DexterM » 14 Apr 2015 13:55

hnair, that area is a Tiger reserve. Ambasamudram had one notable industry (Coats PLC UK - later Madura Coats) and their colony was surrounded by a reserve. Have heard of stories when the tigers would descend the ghats and be seen behind this colony. I don't think either the road or the airbase would be a good idea. I've been to Papanasam as a child, but never knew that area had a defunct airbase or at least one planned.

PS: Do you know why that passway had nasty stories associated with it?

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby KBDagha » 14 Apr 2015 14:06

If you hear Mr. Parikkar's interview, he says the total cost of 126 Rafael would have come to Rs. 90,000 Crores that comes to USD 115 Million per plane approximately at rate of 1$ = 62 Rs.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Viv S » 14 Apr 2015 14:19

Austin wrote:Yes it wont be cheaper but it wont be $60 million either .....I would still put the cost at ~ $45 million may be in worst case + $3 million ~ $47 million , but then there is no way to know the exact cost.


If it was $42 million in 2010, it can hardly be just $47 million six years later. A very modest 5% inflation rate takes us past $56 million.

Austin wrote:Not being un-realistic is not the same as being factual ......Shuklaw had last year mentioned the MKI cost at $75 million when we know from MOD latest figure its $60 million.

Can you give me a quote for that? Is it a specific official figure or ballpark estimate from a speech/tweet/interview?

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby chaanakya » 14 Apr 2015 14:32

Why you people are cribbing about $$ so much. Did Namo mention it anywhere. While importing some stupid Appil or sammy phone at exorbitant unthinkable price you don't even flinch. 1.25 billion people (err 33% of voting and 100% of non voting population minus BDs , assorted Pakis and congi pasand NRIs{if any still left standing} ) would be funding it for national security. Trust this gujju businessman to get the best deal.

$1400+ for 172 gm.
Image

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby DexterM » 14 Apr 2015 14:49

KBDagha wrote:If you hear Mr. Parikkar's interview, he says the total cost of 126 Rafael would have come to Rs. 90,000 Crores that comes to USD 115 Million per plane approximately at rate of 1$ = 62 Rs.

And he says we have got a better deal in place. So, what exactly does that mean? Better than what Dassault promised in its bid and then reneged or better than the overall price after involving HAL - the number mentioned is 31mn man hours for Dassault and 2.7 times that number for HAL. They also mention that as the reason for the price escalation. Is manpower in France not 4 times the cost in India?

What specific metric is being applied here when they say this will be a better deal. I would've wanted Nitin to drill further, but there was reluctance to push since there were more questions to be asked.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Altair » 14 Apr 2015 14:52

Dumbest question of the day.
What are the chances for Indo-French joint development fighter aircraft floated like "BrahMos"?

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby vaibhav.n » 14 Apr 2015 15:43

Very Interesting interview....

Parrikar mentioned that the cost was getting high as while OEM takes 31 million man-hours to manufacture the jet, HAL would have taken 2.7 times longer. More planes will be procured but it will completely depend on how best to go forward and while HAL could be preferred we cannot restrict to just HAL as we are on a separate path now..

French Scorpene Subs programme had mistakes made for both sides from us and probably the French too.

OROP is being held by Supreme Court verdict which has given an interim order. Will be finally cleared by May.

Lastly, The UPA Govt has just cleared everything at the CCS level for the Mountain Strike Corps. This is a guzzler and without any financial projections by Cabinet Secy/Defence Secy. MoD Commited Liabilities for acquasitions will stabilize only after 5 years to 38,000 crores.

The size of the MSC is the problem and needs to be trimmed down.
Last edited by vaibhav.n on 14 Apr 2015 16:00, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Singha » 14 Apr 2015 15:45

none of the euros have a manned 5th gen fighter program in place, though france could certainly do it alone. the rest euros have bits and pieces of the puzzle. Uk-italy-spain-germany combo could make another. Saab could buy some stuff and create a third perhaps folding in help from norway, denmark and netherland as northerly biraders.

none have the funds and political support for it.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Kartik » 14 Apr 2015 15:57

So the breakup is 32 single seaters and 4 twin seaters.

Highlighted part also confirms what I'd written some time ago when writing about the Mirage-2000 on the practice of putting some aircraft into storage and rotating airframes in order to even out usage and take care of those aircraft that go into overhaul and repairs

Modi announces Rafale buy- Janes

...

Senior IAF officers said the 36 Rafales would comprise two squadrons of 14 single-seat and two twin-seat trainers each. The remaining four single-seat fighters would be part of the "maintenance reserve", a two-star IAF officer said.


An official Indian statement declared that the Rafale fighters "would be compatible to the IAF's operational requirements".

The aircraft and associated systems and weapons would be delivered on the same configuration, as had been tested and approved by the IAF and with a longer maintenance responsibility by France, it added.
..

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Austin » 14 Apr 2015 16:00

Viv S wrote:If it was $42 million in 2010, it can hardly be just $47 million six years later. A very modest 5% inflation rate takes us past $56 million.


That pretty much applies to any thing you buy if that is the basis of calculation

Viv S wrote:Can you give me a quote for that? Is it a specific official figure or ballpark estimate from a speech/tweet/interview?


https://www.saddahaq.com/foreign-affair ... at39s-life

Parrikar : MKI to cost 358 crore and Rafale 700 crore

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articl ... ce-408269/

The air force received its first overhauled Su-30MKI (SB 027) from HAL in January. The overhaul facility at HAL Nashik is the first to be set up for the type globally. HAL chairman RK Tyagi says the airframer will now act as “a single window original equipment manufacturer for supporting the Su-30MKI fleet”.

“We are confident of improving the serviceability and ramping up capacity,” he adds.

New Su-30MKI’s delivered by HAL are estimated to cost $60 million each, with a comprehensive 14 year/1,500h overhaul costing the operator just under $20 million. With a second overhauled fighter now due for delivery, HAL says it can overhaul 15 aircraft annually at Nashik. Presently the total technical life of an Su-30MKI is 6,000h/25 years, and time between overhaul for its NPO Saturn AL31FP engines is 1,000h, with a total technical life of 2,000h. The time between overhaul and total technical life for the thrust vector nozzle is half of that of the engine.


Janes http://www.janes.com/article/47533/indi ... fale-talks

"The Su-30MKI is an adequate aircraft for meeting the air force's needs," Parrikar said, adding that at INR3.58 billion (USD59.66 million) each, the unit cost of the Su-30MKIs being licence-built by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) was less than half that of a Rafale.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Austin » 14 Apr 2015 16:25

Any good videos of Rafale specially if there is any mission or BFM videos ?


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