Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Will · Post by **Will** » 11 Apr 2015 21:45

There is no question that the IAF needs to make up nos urgently. But I think the GOI has missed a trick here. After years of negotiations with the French they know what were the short comings of the tender. The tender should have just been scrapped and the GOI shld have played off Dassault against Eurofighter Gmbh. That would have made the French more willing to bend backwards to satisfy the GOI. Both aircraft have been evaluated and meet the IAF's requirements. All that was required was to negotiate with both and see who was willing to supply the aircraft cheaper and more willing to transfer tech to build up Indian industry. Maybe a sqn each could have been bought from each to get both parties interested and fight over the rest of the 100 odd nos

Rampy · Post by **Rampy** » 11 Apr 2015 22:38

PMOIndia-ReportCard ‏@PMOIndia_RC 4h4 hours ago
India to buy 36 Rafale jets in fly away shape, HAL to build another 108

Marking a breakthrough in the protracted... http://fb.me/3q4JezpUg

Guddu · Post by **Guddu** » 11 Apr 2015 22:52

I think what has not been appreciated by many is that the NaMo govt took a decision. After berating saint Anthony for so long, we should appreciate this.

I think the deal is an overall plus. We don't know the details so, we should not judge the govt hastily.
1. IAF stock depletion might be a serious issue, worse even than what is known.
2. We do not know if the MMRCA tender is a closed issue, maybe there will be a follow up, the current deal calms IAF nerves and gives the govt time to complete negotiations from a position of strength.
French: The govt has the option to end the MMRCA tender and go with another Russian plane. Yes, France may get some follow up straight buy deals of a couple more squadrons, but a long term make in India type deal is in both nations interests. It guarantees that the French production lines will remain open and profitable.
Russia: The govt can also play against the Russians, we can always buy more French planes.
USA: In the background, is the F-35. Its a non-contender at the moment, but a sharp deterioration of the world's geopolitical situation, combined with a security council seat could change the equation.
3. We don't know what other technological quid pro quo might have occurred.
4. I am not worried about the multitude of platforms, some older ones are retiring, so we are not adding platforms except temporarily.
5. this deal is unequivocally positive for the LCA. I personally think, we were having difficulties absorbing the French TOT, we are better off focusing on the LCA. I find it amusing that jingos talk of AMCA, when we need to first learn to walk before we run. If the LCA will take forever, AMCA is a pipe dream.

The key again is that everyone knows that the NaMo govt can make decisions. This changes everything. Think about it, it has implications in trade orders as well as geopolitics.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 11 Apr 2015 22:52

So it confirms 144 Rafale for now .... So essentially what Modi did was added 18 more to 126 MMRCA deal......Excellent.

Melwyn · Post by **Melwyn** » 11 Apr 2015 22:59

Hopefully this will be the end of MMRCA saga and this dhaga.

Meanwhile, French press.

Paul · Post by **Paul** » 11 Apr 2015 23:00

Airbus Chief procurement officer was in Bangalore last week.

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 11 Apr 2015 23:08

arvin wrote: This 36 aircraft will be fresh of production line or will we be getting already produced moth balled ones. Since two year is a short time how will long lead items like engines be integrated, tested and delivered by April 2017.

I'm not aware of any mothballed units. Current production rate appears to be 1 per month (11 per year, but August doesn't count as a month in France

) which apparently can be raised by Dassault to 2.5 per month (not sure at what ramp up rate).

http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/fra ... ime-05991/

http://www.defensenews.com/story/defens ... /70211852/

The French authorities are discussing the schedule for Egypt, as there is a "substitution" effect on deliveries that had been due for the French Air Force and Navy, Trappier said.

Annual production will remain at 11 units, or one per month, and output could rise to a little more than 2.5 units per month, he said.

With the Egyptian order for 24 and the IAF order for 36, that's 60 additional orders. The French Air Force / Navy orders will probably be pushed to the back of the queue.

So, if the production rate is ramped up, we could get our 36 in 24 months. Maybe we will get a handful within 24 months, and the rest soon thereafter. All speculation till the schedule of deliveries is announced.

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 11 Apr 2015 23:18

Austin wrote:So it confirms 144 Rafale for now .... So essentially what Modi did was added 18 more to 126 MMRCA deal......Excellent.

I'm not sure we can say that just yet. The order for 36 certainly gives more time for the HAL line to be set up (if it is set up). The time and cost ($8bn) of setting up the HAL line had become the biggest impediment to the acquisition. Only PM Modi knows whether Make in India applies to Rafale or maybe it's a step we cannot afford.

Government may order 36 now, another N after a couple of years, etc. subject to financial condition, condition of IAF, how nervous we are feeling about China, etc.

Rakesh · Post by **Rakesh** » 11 Apr 2015 23:19

From Reuters...

India to wait another two years for French Rafale jets - Parrikar
http://in.reuters.com/article/2015/04/1 ... JC20150411

"It may take two to two-and-a-half years to get the first plane," Parrikar told reporters. "Fly-away means not tomorrow, it has to be designed as per India's need, plus there is a requirement of working out the price."

A Deshmukh · Post by **A Deshmukh** » 11 Apr 2015 23:24

This 36-plane outright purchase
reduces negatives
- sidelines HAL with all its incompetencies in production setup, quality issues and delayed timelines
- satisfies IAF arresting dwindling squadron numbers
- keeps financial outgo controlled - lesser price per plane (no TOT cost) and fewer planes
- sidelines Reliance as Rafale partner
Positives
- Keeps French happy for their support during N-testing.
- Keeps option open for the future additional 108 Rafales or 'n' Tejas + Su-30 or FGFA/PAK-FA.

Overall good or bad depends on price for 36 and next purchases.

eklavya · Post by **eklavya** » 11 Apr 2015 23:25

^^^^
Makes sense! Dassault will be working out whether to ramp up production from 11/y. Part of their calculation is whether India will order more flyaway units.

member_23694 · Post by **member_23694** » 11 Apr 2015 23:55

eklavya wrote:Dassault will be working out whether to ramp up production from 11/y.

With Egypt and India's order of 60 plus French own orders ramp up will surely happen (production line ~24 per year feasible for now) . At least both export customers have mentioned the need for delivery ASAP

chaanakya · Post by **chaanakya** » 12 Apr 2015 00:28

Karan M wrote:
Singha wrote:the fat parts of the wing root behind the two canards have two avionics bays where a mass of LRUs are vertically inserted and removed from slots by removing one panel.
so due to the compact main fuselage they moved the avionics bay there from its usual position just behind the cockpit or under the floor of the cockpit.

imo we will probably get another 36 made in france and never assemble it in india. HAL will ofcourse setup deep overhaul facility in due course starting with 1st line ops. it just does not make sense for 36 planes of such a complex nature. simpler craft like pilatus or hawk it could be justified as their tech and avionics are much more austere and HAL is already at or beyond that level courtesy su30 and jaguar.

rafale apparently has 500 sub part suppliers.
Do note though, the official line is still 108+36!

Tender is not abandoned. And I have a feeling that depending of experience India might operate about 10 to 12 Rafale squadrons on both fronts. MIG 21 will be replaced by LCA MK-II.( speculation only)

Painting a grim picture of India’s combat readiness, a Parliamentary panel on Monday dropped a bombshell by revealing that the force levels of the Indian Air Force are down to a mere 25 fighter squadrons. The IAF till recently had maintained it had 32-34 squadrons with about 18 planes each.

But the revelation by the standing committee on defence in a report tabled in Parliament indicates the IAF's traditional air superiority over Pakistan may have been severely diluted.

India requires 45 fighter squadrons to counter a “two-front collusive threat,” but the panel found that the air force has only 25 active fighter units.

"Moreover, 14 of these squadrons are equipped with MiG-21 and MiG – 27 which will retire between 2015- 2024. Thus the strength will be reduced to just 11 squadrons by 2024..our capability has already come down,” the panel said.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 12 Apr 2015 01:28

xpost >

dhiraj wrote:http://indianexpress.com/article/india/ ... -parrikar/

We need some lighter type of single-engine kind of aircraft, but we also need deep penetration double-engine aircraft which has latest technology and other equipment which can give India a decisive edge over its traditional enemies,” the minister said.

Noting that Light Combat aircraft Tejas will undergo final flight testing next month, he said, ‘Make In India’ is a long-term solution for India’s Air Force strength.
“We have to push the development of Tejas and we have to also ensure that we could build some high grade aircraft,”

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 12 Apr 2015 01:35

^ Reg. articles posted by PankajS and Chanaakya - Hmm, 25 sqds, how?

10 X Flanker
6 X Bison
6 X Flogger
6 X Jaguar
3 X Fulcrum
3 X Mirage

I get 34. But yes, with Bisons and Floggers retiring in 5-7 years, we will need more in a hurry. Plus the current deficit of 4 sqds. Total requirement by 2022 to get force levels to sanctioned 39.5 sqds ~ 14 sqds.

Incoming:
5 X Flanker
2 X Tejas
2 X Rafale
2 X Pakfa

Short by 5 sqds, but I am assuming Tejas numbers will go up (the report above shows MP's determination and that is hopeful) and we will see flyaway Pakfa worth 2 sqds. A couple of MKI or Rafale is not out of the picture either. Altogether, at least the 39.5 number can be maintained.

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 12 Apr 2015 02:08

LCA MKII will have to be given a huge order. There is no other way around it.

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 12 Apr 2015 02:41

With the Egyptian order for 24 and the IAF order for 36, that's 60 additional orders. The French Air Force / Navy orders will probably be pushed to the back of the queue.

So, if the production rate is ramped up, we could get our 36 in 24 months. Maybe we will get a handful within 24 months, and the rest soon thereafter. All speculation till the schedule of deliveries is announced.

It depends upon when the deal is signed and how early Egypt wants its fighters. A batch of 4-6 can certainly be delivered in 2-2.5 years with the remaining taking 36 months (imho) unless both France and Egypt cooperate and let the IAF take a bulk of the production surplus. Full delivery (36) by 2020 would be an excellent pace, by 2022 would be nice as well for that particular program and given from where they start (11 a year). All 36 handed over before 2020 would be outstanding.

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 12 Apr 2015 03:20

RoyG wrote:LCA MKII will have to be given a huge order. There is no other way around it.

They'll find a way

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 12 Apr 2015 03:31

Singha wrote:the famous photo of a f22 snagged in a rafale gunsight during some dogfight
http://i146.photobucket.com/albums/r279 ... 000000.jpg

In actual combat, I suspect the F22 would have seen and shot the Rafale long before the latter could acquire it in its gunsight.

In knife fights it's a different dynamic. But Khan's strategy is based on first look/first shot BVR vs dogfights

srai · Post by **srai** » 12 Apr 2015 03:58

ldev wrote:30 years ago, India bought 49 Dassault Mirage 2000 off the shelf in a knee jerk reaction to the US supplying F16s to Pakistan. Today India may buy 40-60 Dassault Rafale off the shelf in a knee jerk reaction to falling squadron strength. The more things change, the more they remain the same.

India was also supposed to locally build 106 Mirage-2000s after it acquired those 40 off-the-shelf. But that never materialized (due to cost). Same could happen today with the Rafale. Only time will tell.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 12 Apr 2015 04:05

chaanakya wrote:{quote="Karan M"}.....

Painting a grim picture of India’s combat readiness, a Parliamentary panel on Monday dropped a bombshell by revealing that the force levels of the Indian Air Force are down to a mere 25 fighter squadrons. The IAF till recently had maintained it had 32-34 squadrons with about 18 planes each.

But the revelation by the standing committee on defence in a report tabled in Parliament indicates the IAF's traditional air superiority over Pakistan may have been severely diluted.

India requires 45 fighter squadrons to counter a “two-front collusive threat,” but the panel found that the air force has only 25 active fighter units.

"Moreover, 14 of these squadrons are equipped with MiG-21 and MiG – 27 which will retire between 2015- 2024. Thus the strength will be reduced to just 11 squadrons by 2024..our capability has already come down,” the panel said.

So what was the IAF thinking during the last decade? And was above delusional or worse?

I think IAF top leadership needs to introspect what they are all about.
Accountability starts with them.

Admiral Joshi showed the way when he resigned after repeated incidents in submarines.

Here a parliamentary committee is reporting that fighter planes strength is at variance with IAF estimates.

32-34 vs 25 about ten squadrons less. and 14 of these are past their prime planes.

And they want Rafale or nothing.

Looks like hey already have nothing.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 12 Apr 2015 04:06

srai, The early Mirages were financed by BCCI and the ensuing scandal ensured that the Mirages were not made in India.

srai · Post by **srai** » 12 Apr 2015 05:18

ramana wrote:{quote="chaanakya"}{quote="Karan M"}.....

Painting a grim picture of India’s combat readiness, a Parliamentary panel on Monday dropped a bombshell by revealing that the force levels of the Indian Air Force are down to a mere 25 fighter squadrons. The IAF till recently had maintained it had 32-34 squadrons with about 18 planes each.

But the revelation by the standing committee on defence in a report tabled in Parliament indicates the IAF's traditional air superiority over Pakistan may have been severely diluted.

India requires 45 fighter squadrons to counter a “two-front collusive threat,” but the panel found that the air force has only 25 active fighter units.

"Moreover, 14 of these squadrons are equipped with MiG-21 and MiG – 27 which will retire between 2015- 2024. Thus the strength will be reduced to just 11 squadrons by 2024..our capability has already come down,” the panel said.
{/quote}

So what was the IAF thinking during the last decade? And was above delusional or worse?

I think IAF top leadership needs to introspect what they are all about.
Accountability starts with them.

Admiral Joshi showed the way when he resigned after repeated incidents in submarines.

Here a parliamentary committee is reporting that fighter planes strength is at variance with IAF estimates.

32-34 vs 25 about ten squadrons less. and 14 of these are past their prime planes.

And they want Rafale or nothing.

Looks like hey already have nothing.

Yes ... the IAF Chiefs like to reiterate "there is no Plan B"!

It had two decades to shore up its numbers of existing types, namely Mirage-2000 and MiG-29. They should have slowly added more squadrons of those to at least 6 of each. Had they had done that it would have looked this by 2018:

6 x Mirage-2000
6 x MiG-29
6 x Jaguar
14 x Su-30MKI

Total (sqdn): 32

Plus, if the IAF had started LCA induction at IOC-1 (2010) then by 2020 there would have been easily around 6 LCA squadrons (IOC-1, IOC-2 & FOC). That would have totaled to 38 squadrons with all MiG-21 and MiG-27 retiring.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 12 Apr 2015 05:22

ramana wrote:
I think IAF top leadership needs to introspect what they are all about.
Accountability starts with them.

ramana I would ask that you do not start a frenzy of cursing IAF leadership by making "hang them" statements.

The fact that squadron strength would be down by 2015 was pointed out by the IAF as early as 2000. Why has India not produced or bought any aircraft since then.

In a parallel, but similar issue. India has not inducted heavy artillery since Bofors. What is the reason for not saying:

I think Army top leadership needs to introspect what they are all about.
Accountability starts with them.

The army and Air Force are part of the nation and they can do nothing about capital expenses unless the politicians open their purse strings. The politicians and bureaucrats have had their hands so dirty that the instituted a system under Antony to make no decisions.

And, exactly as the Air Force had predicted in 2000, squadron strength is down by 2015. Why are you or anyone else pretending that this was unknown to anyone but the air force brass who kept their mouths shut and did not tell anyone? With respect ramana, when the IAF was pointing out very clearly that operational readiness was going to dwindle, we had people on BRF laughing and mocking the entire idea of operational readiness. Clearly ignorance is bliss. How come no one thinking about why the Air Force was saying that? What's the big surprise that makes us want the top brass to introspect today when they have been hollering for the last 15 years? That is simply shifting the blame. And 15 year ago the LCA was already 15 years old as a concept and no where near induction. Many IAF senior officers were joining the air force when this country offered them an LCA. It is still not there. The country has failed them.

Right here on BRF in 2011 we had forumites saying "Ah the MMRCA will be here by 2013 - so China should attack us before that or they are finished". It is 2015 now and fortunately China has not attacked, but why imagine that we did not know the state of affairs?

Please choose your words carefully. As senior most admin people may encouraged to echo what you say in more forceful terms. I don't think that is good for the Air Force or the country

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 12 Apr 2015 05:25

srai wrote:
Yes ... the IAF Chiefs like to reiterate "there is no Plan B"!

Please take a deep breath before you post.

There was no plan B because the Rafale was going to be purchased anyway. Do you believe that Modi would not have discussed plans with the CAS?

Plans B, C and D were BRF delusion based on BRF's echoing the media and presstitutes

srai · Post by **srai** » 12 Apr 2015 05:43

^^^
Yes ... it was a sarcasm! Why keep harping "no plan B"?

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 12 Apr 2015 05:53

At any given time the IAF "top brass" are 58 to 60 years old after putting in about 35 years service.

In the early 1980s when the nation promised them an LCA - the air chief of the time was a person who had joined the IAF in 1950 or so. A young patriot entering the Air force in the early 1980s would have put in 25 years service and retired without seeing a single LCA fly. The current top people in the IAF have spent their entire working lives waiting for the LCA. Even back in the 80s they were looking for a Mig 21 replacement and the country has not given them that. What is there to introspect? Who must introspect?

The MMRCA saga started way back in 2001 when the IAF had a requirement for 126 aircraft after the LCA failed to arrive. At that time the current senior IAF officers would have been middle ranking. What control would they have had on what is happening today? The brass of today cannot be blamed for errors made by others or by their own bosses 30 or 15 years ago. 30 years ago the IAF should have jumped into the design and manufacture game of LCA. Who were the senior brass 30 years ago? I will get back with this point later. They did not. What could Air Marshal Arup Raha current CAS have done 30 years ago as a flight lieutenant?

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 12 Apr 2015 06:03

Is one Rafale capability equal to 1 Mig 21 /27 or little more than that , same for MKI?

partha · Post by **partha** » 12 Apr 2015 06:14

As soon as Parikkar took over as DM, he made a statement - "We are in a mess, I can't spell it out".

I was reminded of his statement yesterday when I read the breaking news about the fighter purchase. We are not privy to a lot of data that IAF and DM have. To me this is a good progress. Stalemate sucked.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 892688.cms

How Narendra Modi reworked Rafale deal, and why it’s a winner

NEW DELHI: Two themes dominated Prime Minister Narendra Modi's decision to do an outright buy of 36 Rafale fighter aircraft from France — national security and cutting through bureaucratic red tape. In the process, India was able to get better terms for the fighters, which has been hanging fire for the past few years.

The Indian Air Force has been raising red flags over the appalling lack of India's defence preparedness for some time. But this time, the Air chief received a sympathetic hearing from the PM. While it was the same shortcoming that had prompted the Rafale deal in the first place, the subsequent tortuous negotiations meant that the deal had less and less chances of going through.

Between the Dassault-HAL mistrust, looming liability issues that Dassault flagged for the 108 aircraft supposed to be built in India, and rising lifecycle costs for the aircraft, it was threatening to become one of those famous defence quagmires that have regularly bedeviled Indian defence procurement.

READ ALSO: Rafale deal is 'oxygen' for IAF, Parrikar says

India was not only in danger of not getting the Rafale, but not getting anything else either because nobody would be able to actually scrap the deal without incurring penalties. It would have been a festering sore that would have impacted India-France relations.

Modi's pact ensured better price for Rafale jets

Late last year, the Indian government decided to look at other options on how to get the necessary aircraft without raising hackles or having the deal questioned. The Modi government decided to cut through the red tape, which included everything from offset rules to pricing. Abandoning the 'Make in India' mantra for 36 planes, Modi was able to do two things.

First get a better price from France for the 36 planes because they are a direct G2G buy and do not involve technology transfer. Secondly, there was also no question of going back to the drawing board to re-issue the RFP (Request for Proposal) which would have added to the delay and could attract unnecessary criticism, political opposition and allegations of corruption, which this government is keen to avoid.

A national security assessment also highlighted the growing uncertainty in India's neighbourhood-- not only with its traditional challenges of China and Pakistan, but the growing instability in India's western neighbourhood. An aggressive China could also be unpredictable and any potential conflict with India's northern neighbour would be all about air power.

China, because of its arms embargo, cannot access the kind of weapons that India can - but in the past few years, Beijing has ramped up its fighter aircraft production with a lot of help from Russia. With its deep pockets and near absent bureaucratic delays on defence production, China would soon have an unbeatable edge over India.

READ ALSO: Direct purchase of 36 fighters will alter original Rafale deal

Meanwhile, Dassault itself was having problems, until they got a shot in the arm with Egypt ordering 24 Rafale jets off the shelf in February for $5.9 billion, a much higher price than negotiated by India for 126 aircraft. This gave them the ability to continue negotiations with India while they worked on the Egypt order. It would mean that India would add several years to its already long waiting period to get the aircraft. In the meantime, Indian Air Force would continue its downward spiral.

French defence minister Jean-Yves Le Drian visited India in December and in February after India indicated it would seriously relook at overcoming the hurdles for Rafale. India sent a number of teams to France to complete the negotiations in time for the PM's visit. As in the India-US nuclear deal, negotiations went down to the wire, with Indian officials negotiating the minutiae of the deal as late as late last week.

French President Francois Hollande (right) listens to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's speech (centre) during an official dinner in his honor at the Elysee Palace in Paris, on April 10, 2015. French Prime Minister Manuel Valls (left) is also seen. (AFP photo)

The order for 36 jets, double the original number, was used by the government to drive a harder bargain with France. The government was persuaded to pressure Dassault to fast track delivery, and secure better terms for servicing and maintenance besides spares. The political heavy lifting was spearheaded by the PM, including the internal decision to slice away at the red tape.

Sources said the earlier deal on 108 aircraft to be manufactured in India still stands and would be renegotiated with Dassault incorporating the new terms agreed on. It's not yet clear whether government entity HAL would be the Indian manufacturer or whether with the liberalized defence production norms, it could be someone else. For the moment, India will continue to hold the French feet to the fire for swift delivery of the aircraft.

The government has already announced the two new squadrons would be inducted into the IAF in two years.
The India-France joint statement said the order for the 36 jets would be "on terms that would be better than conveyed by Dassault Aviation as part of a separate process underway".

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 12 Apr 2015 06:22

Jhujar wrote:Is one Rafale capability equal to 1 Mig 21 /27 or little more than that , same for MKI?

Jhujar that is too simplistic a way of looking at it. But if one must go down that route the Rafale is at least 2-4 times as capable as a MiG 21 for several reasons.

Flying older aircraft the pilot had a heavy workload - navigation and "engine management". the latter concept is something that we who do not fly aircraft never see. This heavy workload is in addition to combat if and when it happens. So pilot takes off, navigates his way though darkness or bad weather, all the time "managing his engine" for speed or range or power or whatever is needed for that minute. After that, in wartime there is a brief period - maybe 10 minutes or 15 minutes of intense combat where navigation may be ignored other than hitting the target (or escaping from being shot down) but the pilot must do weapons management and engine management and still stay alive and flying. After this he has to get back and some things may be damaged. He has to start navigation again, fuel management, engine management etc and try and find his way back home.

In modern aircraft the workload is reduced. Engine management is computerized and smart with "FADEC", navigation is much easier. Weapons management is easier - and I could write a couple of paras on that alone but I won't. Add to that the fact that the Rafale carries twice as much as Mig 21 so there is no comparison really. Of course a pilot in a MiG 21 can give a Rafale a run for his money. Merely having Rafale's cannot win wars. But if two aircraft can do the work of 6 then you have a much more efficient force.

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 12 Apr 2015 07:11

Cosmo_R wrote:
Singha wrote:the famous photo of a f22 snagged in a rafale gunsight during some dogfight
http://i146.photobucket.com/albums/r279 ... 000000.jpg
In actual combat, I suspect the F22 would have seen and shot the Rafale long before the latter could acquire it in its gunsight.

In knife fights it's a different dynamic. But Khan's strategy is based on first look/first shot BVR vs dogfights

I wouldnt be surprised if each and every jet in the US fighter inventory (F-15, 16, 18, T38) at the moment has scored a gun kill on the F-22 (and Vice Versa) at some point in time. There are pictures of the F-18E doing so. The T-38's have done so (i think a HUD video is up on youtube), and I believe that there was a comment somewhere on the fence check forums that the F-15C had also scored a few gun kills. BFM and DACT is there for one purpose i.e. TRAINING and learning and you end up dyeing quite a bit in the process. GUN FIGHTS don't regard generational fighter classifications and technology either. Google "Luftwaffe F-4F Rafale Eaters" and you'll find german F-4 with multiple Rafale kills in DACT. Its a part and process of learning through going up against a different aircraft and different tactics. Now Put the thing through BVR, without a Luneburg lens (which the F-22's never train without - even with allies) and you may end up with a different story.

arun · Post by **arun** » 12 Apr 2015 07:50

chaanakya wrote:Tender is not abandoned. And I have a feeling that depending of experience India might operate about 10 to 12 Rafale squadrons on both fronts. MIG 21 will be replaced by LCA MK-II.( speculation only)

Painting a grim picture of India’s combat readiness, a Parliamentary panel on Monday dropped a bombshell by revealing that the force levels of the Indian Air Force are down to a mere 25 fighter squadrons. The IAF till recently had maintained it had 32-34 squadrons with about 18 planes each.

But the revelation by the standing committee on defence in a report tabled in Parliament indicates the IAF's traditional air superiority over Pakistan may have been severely diluted.

India requires 45 fighter squadrons to counter a “two-front collusive threat,” but the panel found that the air force has only 25 active fighter units.

"Moreover, 14 of these squadrons are equipped with MiG-21 and MiG – 27 which will retire between 2015- 2024. Thus the strength will be reduced to just 11 squadrons by 2024..our capability has already come down,” the panel said.

Excerpt from the Primary source for information that that our Air Force’s force levels have plummeted to the dangerous level of 25 squadrons, namely the Fourth Report on Demands for Grants (2014-15) of the Ministry on Defence on Navy and Air Force (Demand No. 23 & 24) tabled by our Parliaments Standing Committee on Defence on December 22, 2014:

Force Level

2.8 The Committee enquired about the sanctioned and existing strength of combat squadrons that Air Force possesses. The representatives of Air Force replied as under:

“The IAF requires at least 45 fighter squadrons to counter a two front collusive threat. The IAF today has 25 active fighter squadrons as against a Government authorized strength of 42 squadrons. 14 of these fighter squadrons are equipped with the MiG-21 and MiG-27 aircraft which will retire between 2015 and 2024.”

2.9 On enquiring about the reasons for gap in the squadron strength, the Committee were informed that the gap exists because the rate at which fighter aircraft are retiring after completion of their total technical life exceeds the rate at which their replacements are being inducted into the IAF.

2.10 The Committee wished to know how the Ministry of Defence proposes to fill the gap during the 12th Plan period. Through written reply the Ministry informed as given:-

“IAF has contracted 272 Su-30 MKI fighter aircraft to form 13 Squadrons and the delivery of these aircraft is likely to be completed by 2020. Further, the series production of LCA by HAL is also awaited, to form the first LCA squadron in IAF. The MMRCA project is at CNC stage. Early induction of additional aircraft is crucial for arresting the drawdown in the strength of fighter squadrons.”

The Web link is here:

Fourth Report on Demands for Grants (2014-15) of the Ministry on Defence on Navy and Air Force (Demand No. 23 & 24)

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 12 Apr 2015 07:53

shiv wrote:
Jhujar wrote:Is one Rafale capability equal to 1 Mig 21 /27 or little more than that , same for MKI?
Jhujar that is too simplistic a way of looking at it. But if one must go down that route the Rafale is at least 2-4 times as capable as a MiG 21 for several reasons.

Flying older aircraft the pilot had a heavy workload - navigation and "engine management". the latter concept is something that we who do not fly aircraft never see. This heavy workload is in addition to combat if and when it happens. So pilot takes off, navigates his way though darkness or bad weather, all the time "managing his engine" for speed or range or power or whatever is needed for that minute. After that, in wartime there is a brief period - maybe 10 minutes or 15 minutes of intense combat where navigation may be ignored other than hitting the target (or escaping from being shot down) but the pilot must do weapons management and engine management and still stay alive and flying. After this he has to get back and some things may be damaged. He has to start navigation again, fuel management, engine management etc and try and find his way back home.

In modern aircraft the workload is reduced. Engine management is computerized and smart with "FADEC", navigation is much easier. Weapons management is easier - and I could write a couple of paras on that alone but I won't. Add to that the fact that the Rafale carries twice as much as Mig 21 so there is no comparison really. Of course a pilot in a MiG 21 can give a Rafale a run for his money. Merely having Rafale's cannot win wars. But if two aircraft can do the work of 6 then you have a much more efficient force.

Continuing in a simplistic vein, the Rafale is truly an amazing fighter in terms of capability, and surely the best among all the MRCA contenders. Superlative on so many counts - payload of 9500kg on 14 stations, high twr, supercruise, compact and well integrated sensors using next gen TRMs in its EW suite and an AESA radar, truly multirole with the capacity to carry as many as 7500liters in EFTs + IFR, exotic armaments and good looks to boot! Yes, I am a fan.

FWIW, from http://defense-update.com/20140127_rafa ... SngoI10zIU

Equipped with this configuration, two Rafale aircraft represent the same potential as six Mirage 2000 class aircraft

I do hope that Dassault sweetens the pot with the Meteor. Does anybody know if the IAF evaluated the Rafale with the Topsight HMS? IIRC, earlier variants did not have one.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 12 Apr 2015 08:31

First IAF one to have AESA too. I think the French got this deal by better price & faster induction into IAF. Price seems to be the main one. May be all 144 imported with local production going to LCA Mk2 in full.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 12 Apr 2015 08:56

The 25 squadron number just seems to be a classic case of "Aswatthama" by the IAF to spook the politicos into action - and their approach actually makes ample sense. See below..

They say 25, and 14 are MiG-21 and MiG-27. Good news here is that MiG availability of the locally sourced types seems to be decent.

11 are left.

We know some 8 Su-30s sq are in service. There are 3 Mirage 2000 sqs and 3 MiG-29 Squadrons. There are 5 Jaguar squadrons. That's 19 versus 11.

If we take the important part as "active" and assume it relates to overall number of airframes available in all probability. We know Su-30s for instance have 5 squadrons worth available out of 8 (60% availability). Mirage 2000s are at 1.5 squadrons worth (a quarter of airframes are grounded, 3rd Mirage 2000 sq is actually less in number, overall squadrons when divided by 18 hence go to 1.5 number). That still leaves 60 MiG-29s and around 100 Jaguars.. even at 60% availability for these two types , we have around 5 squadrons worth left. So around 11.5.

So what the IAF has done is take the actual number of operational airframes and divide it up by squadrons. This approach is actually sensible and logical.

The good news is that as I was reiterating, around 2 squadrons worth of Su-30s can be added back to the Orbat by year end (improvements in serviceability). The Mirage 2000's likewise - the issues are not technological but bureaucratic (Spares delays etc). The MiG-29s and Jaguars are in the midst of an upgrade (which should account for extra aircraft pulled off the flightline and so forth taking the availability to an average of 60 odd%).

In short, the sky has not fallen (yet). The immediate need of the hour is to get the Su-30 fleet (and the rest as well) serviceability up asap, even as new inductions (Rafale and Tejas, more Sukhois) progress.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 12 Apr 2015 09:00

Thanks for that explanation Karan - good on the IAF - I see that creativity in numbers is not just an accounting skill!

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 12 Apr 2015 09:03

Its actually a very practical approach TBH. I always felt the overall "number of squadrons raised metric" was not too accurate as actual details around airframes available.

Good part is since new tech is flowing in - new radars, SAMs, PGMs etc, IAFs combat edge is still there but numbers matter. As famously said, one plane cant be in two places at the same time.

arun · Post by **arun** » 12 Apr 2015 09:18

Karan M wrote:................ but numbers matter. As famously said, one plane cant be in two places at the same time.

Also as Joseph Stalin is reputed to have said, "Quantity has a quality all its own."

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 12 Apr 2015 09:37

Guys, confirmation on my thoughts above!!! Man we guys on BRF do five minute soch samaj versus our MSM which can't be bothered

http://week.manoramaonline.com/cgi-bin/ ... 5&tabId=13

Alarmingly, in one of its reports, the committee put the actual operational squadron strength at a paltry 25, after discounting aircraft undergoing repair and refit at any given time. The estimate is that 35 to 40 per cent of the aircraft in a squadron can be expected to be in the maintenance or refit or upgrade hangar at any given time.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 12 Apr 2015 09:45

Some real interesting details above (if true).

Before HAL started a spares bank, UPA lack of funding (correlate between Std Committee reports on funding and IAF piecemeal orders from Business Std)

So much so that three or four Su-30MKIs have been turned into 'Christmas Trees' from which the engineers pluck spares. “These [new] aircraft are being cannibalised to meet the requirement of spares for the other aircraft in the Su-30 squadrons,” said an official at the Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd (HAL), which builds the aircraft under Russian licence. “But I won't blame the IAF. They are facing problems in getting spares from Russia.”

New Govt comes in

Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar, though new to his job, is aware of the shortage of aircraft. He recently asked the IAF and HAL to improve the availability of fighter jets. “If we improve the availability, the current squadrons are reasonably adequate,” he told THE WEEK. “It doesn't mean that we should not increase it. We have to have 42 squadrons, but equally important is that we should improve the availability of the present 35 squadrons.”

HAL starts a spares bank, heavily used LRUs are being stockpiled in advance

Parrikar claims that the IAF has improved aircraft availability by 10 per cent in the past six months. “If you improve the availability, 75 per cent of your problem is solved,” he said. “Sukhoi availability is also improving. Low availability is due to servicing issues and spares.” Agreed former HAL chairman R.K. Tyagi: “The availability of aircraft in the squadrons was 50 per cent earlier. But, with steps like creation of spares bank for the aircraft, we have brought it up to 60 per cent in the last few months.”

Good on the Defence Minister & the figure of 75% for the Su-30 fleet definitely seems achievable. 10% in six months is why he said, 70-75% by year end!