Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

[arthuro]

I am curious to learn more on HAL achievement so far. A fighter aircraft in the work for 30 years and with Modest performance and technology or an helicopter which relies massively on foreign suplliers...Or is it that trainer which was declated a failure a few days ago ? ( And these are nothing close from designing and manufacturing your own advanced competitive fighter jet from noise to tale with engine)

[Viv S]

I am curious to learn more on HAL achievement so far. A fighter aircraft in the work for 30 years and with Modest performance and technology

I'm curious as to where you learned that HAL developed the Tejas.

or an helicopter which relies massively on foreign suplliers...

By nominal cost not by value. But yes its certainly a downside. For example, when they wanted to use the same French-origin engine in the LUH as is used in the Dhruv, Turbomeca (a Safran subsidiary) decided to exploit its privileged position and charge an exorbitant rate. It relented only when HAL gave up on logistical commonality and issued an industry wide RFP for a new engine.

Indeed more domestication is the need of the day. With greater production volumes (making local manufacture more economical) and greater R&D investment they'll achieve that.

Or is it that trainer which was declated a failure a few days ago ? ( And these are nothing close from designing and manufacturing your own advanced competitive fighter jet from noise to tale with engine)

Yes, IJT is probably a write-off. But please explain how license building French fighter jet will fix all existing and future organisational problems.

[Manish_Sharma]

Yes,there was a VAYU article on the IAF's predilection for a "heavy" force oftwin-engined aircraft........However,with the SU-35,the workload has been considerably eased.

This is very unintelligent statement. First the writer says that "there was a VAYU article on the IAF's predilection for a "heavy" force oftwin-engined aircraft." straightaway after that the writer presents a solution for totally unrelated problem. That is "However,with the SU-35,the workload has been considerably eased."

The HEAVY means HEAVY, WEIGHTY !!! consumes prodigious amounts of petrol, mobile oils OR whatever!

The workload problem is completely a different problem, apparently the IAF isn't satisfied with even the "workload" reduction of even PAK FA. Hence the IAF wanted "FGFA" to be twin seater as they knew that russkies can't get to the level of work reduction which f-35, rafale, ef2k countries can make.

Reading brar_warriors posts in turkey thread it becomes clear that most of energy and money have been spent that all the different sensors work in unison and present the pilot with quick complete picture so he can just quickly fire away..........

Years ago I had read that article where east german Mig-29 had outmanuevered F-16 but IIRC in either strategy or global forum another pilot had presented Mig-29's problem: THAT WAS THAT FULCRUM PILOT HAD TO PUSH 11 BUTTONS TO LAUNCH THE MISSILE, WHILE F-16 PILOT HAD TO PUSH JUST ONE. That's why IAF wanted even in PAK FA place for 2 pilots. Not that they wanted to start another "Indira Gandhi Rozgar Yojna....", they KNOW how much work their pilots have to do on mki.

Did we ever heard any supply or maintenance problems regard M2k

The Q is what capability does the IAF want ? Or rather what will suffice for it?

As Air Marshal Tyagi had said circa '08 that "we don't merely want a jet that does gymnastics in the air" (clearly pointed to 29/35..)

They want very good sensor integration, they want high availability like m2k and unlike 29.

From the first requirements of the MMRCA,all that was wanted was upgraded M-2000s.It is when the IAF saw the "menu" available in the form of Efs,Raffys,etc.,that they salivated and evaluated all the aircraft choosing what they felt was the best of the best,a playoff between the two most expensive birds.

Double talk again! So whenever it suits the poster its ok to harp upon great capabilities of 35S, but when other's capabilities are presented they have to be condemned as "salivating"? Great!

Is IAF salivating again at PAK FA capabilities? Does the poster wants this salivating IAF reject PAK FA and go for less capable Tejas? After all what is in capabilities forget PAK FA, forget the upgradation to Supersukhoi 30mki. Just go for more Tejas...... RIGHT?

Ahhhh but wait a minute the replacement also has to be ONLY AND ONLY RUSSIAN ! DAMN!!!

[Karan M]

I am curious to learn more on HAL achievement so far. A fighter aircraft in the work for 30 years and with Modest performance and technology or an helicopter which relies massively on foreign suplliers...Or is it that trainer which was declated a failure a few days ago ? ( And these are nothing close from designing and manufacturing your own advanced competitive fighter jet from noise to tale with engine)

The Americans with the F-22 and JSF say the same to you Frenchies with your Rafale "A fighter aircraft in the work for 30 years and with Modest performance and technology"

Not to mention all the other programs going on.

You lot are completely delusional.

[Karan M]

Dhananjay, not to step in for Philipogvskys uber Russia claims but:

Original link gone..heres the excerpt from AWST:

Big Fighter, Big Glass
Posted by Bill Sweetman at 6/20/2007 3:14 AM

Sukhoi's Su-35, to be unveiled in August at the MAKS air show in Moscow, is the biggest revision yet of the company's heavyweight fighter. On show at Paris is a demonstration simulator of the fighter's redesigned cockpit, dominated by two 15-inch diagonal LCDs - more glass area than any other fighter cockpit, including that of the JSF. There are no mechanical displays in the cockpit, and the pilot interacts with the displays using a cursor control device on the stick and soft-key pushbuttons surrounding the glass.

The two screens are each split into four sub-windows, which are normally managed automatically according to the mission plan. Primary flight instruments are carried on the left side of the right-hand screen, with the left-hand screen being the primary display for maps and targeting information - so that the pilot can operate the screen with his left hand with the right hand on the stick.

According to Sukhoi engineer Alexey Mukhin, the Su-35 has a sensor-fusion avionics system which assigns each target a single identity - Sukhoi calls it a "passport" - and indicates which sensor or sensors have tracked it. The fighter also has an intra-flight datalink that can support four groups of four fighters simultaneously and share targeting information between them.

The Su-35 introduces integrated flight and propulsion control using three-dimensional thrust vectoring, providing full-envelope carefree handling with any combination of loads. It has electronic throttle controls and the system also manages the fuel load. One novel feature: when the pilot extends the refuelling probe, the aircraft automatically switches to a more stable flight control mode.

Missing from the new fighter is the big dorsal speedbrake of previous versions. Different combinations of control surface movements are used for deceleration, and the jet can make a 60-degree descent at a stabilized speed. Removing the speedbrake (plus some other changes) bumps the fighter's already impressive internal fuel capacity from 22,000 pounds to 25,300 pounds. The Su-35 should be ready for delivery in 2010.

Basically all the latest fighters - EF/Gripen/Rafale/FA-18EF/JSF/FGFA/Su-35 etc have sensor fusion built in. Hence a two seater FGFA is not required, and IAF may well have been wrong based on earlier estimates of Su-30 MKI remaining a federated system. Heck, even that is supposed to get a sensor fusion system per some reports & a similar softare capability is being built into the LCA MK2.
Of course degree of automated decision making built in may differ platform to platform.

[arthuro]

Viv, HAL and other suppliers will have to follow the instructions from Dassault to deliver a functionning rafale. They will have to adapt and modernize their organization to satisfy the requirements (costs, timeframe, quality...). This will be a tranformational effort to boost Indian aeronautic industry.

Look Indian admin has changed, it could have scrapped MRCA but dis not. They are no fool, their must be a coherence in their decision...You should start your own introspection to understand what in tour reasoning is missing

[arthuro]

What is decribed in the Su35 article is a federated architecture. In the canadian compétition, only the F35 and the rafale are credited with sensor fusion (not the SH nor the Typhoon)

[Viv S]

Viv, HAL and other suppliers will have to follow the instructions from Dassault to deliver a functionning rafale. They will have to adapt and modernize their organization to satisfy the requirements (costs, timeframe, quality...). This will be a tranformational effort to boost Indian aeronautic industry.

How does that make an iota of difference to India's domestic design & development capability? I ask since you've brought up the IJT, Tejas, Dhruv and so on, i.e. indigenously designed aircraft.

As far as production is concerned, HAL has been license building aircraft for over 50 years. The Rafale is merely one more addition to the list.

Look Indian admin has changed, it could have scrapped MRCA but dis not. They are no fool, their must be a coherence in their decision...You should start your own introspection to understand what in tour reasoning is missing

A mistake is a mistake, doesn't matter which govt does it. But for the record, have you seen the new administration's defence budget? If so, did you find adequate funds allocated for a Rafale purchase in the the current fiscal?

As far as introspections are concerned, perhaps you could explain why after nearly 15 years the Rafale's confirmed exports are still zero and confirmed domestic orders are merely 180 units (of which apparently 40 are being earmarked for export).

[arthuro]

Manufacturing an AESA radar and so on, having access to source codes to make your own development helps. When you have a network of suppliers which have absorbed the technology they can capitalize on this capability. It is possible as seen on the ToT for subs (for brazil) that a dedicated "univetsity" is created to pass on the know how.

I find strange that even after a change of administration (with a different political leaning) the MRCA is still considered ad a top priority, even after a fresh look. Besides MRCA is still the priority for the IAF. I guess chances that the mistake is on your side is much higher...Unless IAF, MoD and the whole range of Indian politics, gov are completely incompetent.

As for rafale export, US clout failed several rafale campains when the bird recieved all praises in technical evaluations. Two other cases saw a failure due to cost as the countries did not face imminent threat and went for the cheaper bird instead.

[Viv S]

Manufacturing an AESA radar and so on, having access to source codes to make your own development helps. When you have a network of suppliers which have absorbed the technology they can capitalize on this capability. It is possible as seen on the ToT for subs (for brazil) that a dedicated "univetsity" is created to pass on the know how.

BEL has been manufacturing AESAs for years. License building a fighter AESA isn't going change domestic capabilities. Particularly since the GaAs/GaN foundries supplying the models in production are going to remain based in Europe.

On one hand you want to claim that the Tejas Mk2 cannot be developed and on the other hand, you want to claim that source code for the Rafale will allow India to develop some sort of Rafale NG. Absurd logic.

Aside from the AESA and composites there's nothing on the Rafale that can feed into domestic programs (which as per you should all be canned). The Rafale is arriving too late to be of any use to the Tejas. And the tech transferred will be obsolete by the time the AMCA nears service. And like I said before, domestic design capabilities are not improved in the least.

I find strange that even after a change of administration (with a different political leaning) the MRCA is still considered ad a top priority, even after a fresh look.

- Political leaning is immaterial.
- A 'top priority' that wasn't allocated any funding in the defence budget?

Its of course quite possible the Rafale will get signed next year (or get scrapped). It'll still be a mistake.

Besides MRCA is still the priority for the IAF. I guess chances that the mistake is on your side is much higher...Unless IAF, MoD and the whole range of Indian politics, gov are completely incompetent.

Competent at times. Incompetent at other times. Its been nearly 15 years since the first RFI for the MRCA was issued. No contract signed yet. Do you think that was by design?

As for rafale export, US clout failed several rafale campains when the bird recieved all praises in technical evaluations. Two other cases saw a failure due to cost as the countries did not face imminent threat and went for the cheaper bird instead.

So you'd like to blame it on the Americans? The Mirage 2000 while overshadowed by the F-16 still managed a fair few exports, but okay. What about the fall in domestic orders from 320 to 180. Not the US' fault surely?

Technical evaluations are meaningless when divorced from cost.

[arthuro]

So ToT requirements for MRCA is a joke according to you...One has to wonder why ToT is so important for so many countries in so many tenders...What a waste of money. Of course your wrong and it is not your twisted arguments that will change anything. ToT is of strategic importance for this kind of deals and not only in India. it is not because you (one person) fail to see how it is going to be beneficiary that suddenly ToT is a rip-off.

Second, you can repeat MRCA is a mistake which is perfectly appropriate on a discussion board but I would rather trust IAF, Indian MoD & Mindef than yet another armchair general. If the LCA or any other option weren't considered as viable option there is a reason.

You are also mistaken with french orders : There are never been a cancelation of 140 rafales. 180 is the current order including the F3R but french mindef cimmited to a 5th trench with yet a more capable standard. Just google "rafale 5th batch Le Drian". Total order will be 225 in the end.

[Viv S]

So ToT requirements for MRCA is a joke according to you...One has to wonder why ToT is so important for so many countries in so many tenders...What a waste of money. Of course your wrong and it is not your twisted arguments that will change anything. ToT is of strategic importance for this kind of deals and not only in India. it is not because you (one person) fail to see how it is going to be beneficiary that suddenly ToT is a rip-off.

Who said anything about ripoffs etc. ToT is basically a jobs program. The driving factor is economic.

Its the grand 'ToT-is-transformational' idea that's a complete joke.

Second, you can repeat MRCA is a mistake which is perfectly appropriate on a discussion board but I would rather trust IAF, Indian MoD & Mindef than yet another armchair general. If the LCA or any other option weren't considered as viable option there is a reason.

MoD and Mindef are the same thing. Perhaps you meant MoF or Ministry of Finance which isn't going to be as on-board as you think when they are presented with the MMRCA's bill.

And I'm sure it was trustworthy experts in the French MoD who came up with the 320 aircraft target and then revised it down to 180. MoD's are clearly not infallible.

You are also mistaken with french orders : There are never been a cancelation of 140 rafales. 180 is the current order including the F3R but french mindef cimmited to a 5th trench with yet a more capable standard. Just google "rafale 5th batch Le Drian". Total order will be 225 in the end.

Right. My bad. So that's 225 - 40 = 185 domestic orders. Down from 320. Assuming the 5th tranche goes ahead. Cancellation of only 135 Rafales.

[Manish_Sharma]

Dhananjay, not to step in for Philipogvskys uber Russia claims but:

Basically all the latest fighters - EF/Gripen/Rafale/FA-18EF/JSF/FGFA/Su-35 etc have sensor fusion built in. Hence a two seater FGFA is not required, and IAF may well have been wrong based on earlier estimates of Su-30 MKI remaining a federated system. Heck, even that is supposed to get a sensor fusion system per some reports & a similar softare capability is being built into the LCA MK2.
Of course degree of automated decision making built in may differ platform to platform.

Thanks for the info Karan, good to know that with all these projects, acquisitions etc. going on sensor fusion will get into Tejas Mk. 2. Looking forward to it.

[arthuro]

Viv, you are mixing offset and ToT. Offset is for the economy and ToT is for what it stands for : Transfer of Technology. Twisting, twisting...

Second french rafale numbers is down to 294 to 225. 320 is an antic number. 180 is the current confirmed orders with the current military law. The next one will see the order of the 5th tranche to make up the 225 figure.

[Viv S]

Viv, you are mixing offset and ToT. Offset is for the economy and ToT is for what it stands for : Transfer of Technology. Twisting, twisting...

Its both offsets and ToT. In fact, offsets is less about jobs and more about retaining capital (i.e. limiting the impact of forex & the trade deficit).

Who do you think the ToT goes to? HAL or ADA? BEL or DARE? DRDL or BDL?

Do you know for example know how many anti-tank missiles, BDL has delivered under ToT (French MILANs as a matter of fact) ? Did the Nag program get a fillip? The BAE Hawk is being built under full ToT. Do you think that's going to help the IJT program? Do you think license building the Pilatus will give a boost to the HTT-40?

Second french rafale numbers is down to 294 to 225. 320 is an antic number. 180 is the current confirmed orders with the current military law. The next one will see the order of the 5th tranche to make up the 225 figure.

40 out of those 225 orders are for export. 2014-2019; 26 retained, 40 for export.

That's 225 - 40 = 185 domestic orders. Down from 320 294 (far be for me to use 'antique' figures).

So.. 185 ordered, 109 cancelled.

[RKumar]

As for rafale export, US clout failed several rafale campains when the bird recieved all praises in technical evaluations. Two other cases saw a failure due to cost as the countries did not face imminent threat and went for the cheaper bird instead.

It is a golden line, technically top and financially flop.

I hope, India can manage to secure reasonable funds (max 15-17 billion $ for 126 fighter package with ToT, Weapons, fighters and one production line) for the deal. If price is higher then this, everyone is wasting their time.

[arthuro]

Where do you get this 40 rafales for export from ? Do you have a source ? The plan has always been to delay some delivery slot for export in order to cope with a defense spending peek but never to cancel those deliveries. 225 is the target for the french orders with 180 orderd right now and 225 with the fift batch.

You are still mistaken on offsets and ToT. Saying offsets id mainly for trade deficit and forex is a joke as expenses are spread over years. Impact on one fiscal year is marginal.

[Karan M]

What exactly is being transferred under this TOT anyhow? IIRC the last DPP under which this deal was initially negotiated put the acceptable TOT level for the deal at 65%. Which basically means all the TOT relating to stuff like the AESA radar, Spectra etc is just assembly of electronic modules supplied by Thales, Sagem etc at great expense at a HAL or BEL facility, which is likely to be so unique that it likely won't be used for any Indian program either. Whatever learning we do get will be from programs run by LRDE, CABS, Datapatterns, L&T etc. At best, the much touted TOT is basically a) CNC stuff for HAL to manufacture stuff closely to Dassaults specs - which wont be leveraged for other programs like FGFA since they'll run in parallel with entirely different groups b ) will be somewhat useful for local maintenance and support over the fighter's life. That's about it, really.
The only two good parts- some of this TOT should flow to private SMEs and allow them to scale up and offsets (ditto, we'll have to ensure they are managed well)..

[Viv S]

Where do you get this 40 rafales for export from ? Do you have a source ? The plan has always been to delay some delivery slot for export in order to cope with a defense spending peek but never to cancel those deliveries. 225 is the target for the french orders with 180 orderd right now and 225 with the fift batch.

2014-2019: French MoD to buy 26 Rafales. Total production 66 Rafales. Remaining 40 are for export.

http://www.lesechos.fr/02/08/2013/LesEc ... budget.htm

If the export efforts don't pan out, these aircraft will be delivered to the French military instead, and the plan for the fifth tranche likely shelved.

You are still mistaken on offsets and ToT. Saying offsets id mainly for trade deficit and forex is a joke as expenses are spread over years. Impact on one fiscal year is marginal.

It may be marginal for one year for this one deal. But collectively i.e. along with all other purchases paid for during the year it adds up. Which is why the MoD has introduced the mandatory 30% offset requirement for all arms imports.

India is the third largest importer of arms and equipment in the world. Every year nearly 30 to 40 % of the defence budget finds its way out of the country towards acquisitions either through direct or indirect imports. This is a major amount for any country leave alone India. The bottom line is that a substantial amount of precious National resources move out without giving corresponding benefit to the nation.

The provisions in the Defence Procurement Procedure (DPP) 2006 concerning offsets will be implemented as per the following procedure.

These provisions will apply to all Capital Acquisitions categorized as ‘Buy (Global)’, i.e., Outright Purchase from foreign/ Indian vendor, or ‘Buy and Make with Transfer of Technology’, i.e., Purchase from foreign vendor followed by Licensed Production, where the indicative cost in the Request For Proposal (RFP) is Rs 300 crore or more.

Initially, a uniform offset of 30% of the indicative cost of the acquisition in ‘Buy (Global)’ category acquisitions and 30% of the foreign exchange component in ‘Buy and Make’ category acquisitions will be the minimum required value of the offset. Based on a review of the experience of implementing these provisions, the minimum offset percentage for the following two years will be prescribed with the approval of the Defence Acquisition Council.

Confederation of Indian Industry

^ Older DPP but the principle remains unchanged.

[Viv S]

First, this Indic thought that "Production Technology" is not one of the technologies that is worth anything or is passed on under such agreements should be gotten rid of. So TOT agreements run the entire gamut - sometimes they pass on some "design technologies", sometimes "component technologies", rarely "systems technologies" and usually "production technologies" (with varying degrees of transfer there.

Production technology is indeed important to the industry. Unfortunately, what the Tejas experience demonstrates that creating a new production line from scratch is a very different ballgame from replicating the OEM's home model.

HAL is already building 16 Su-30MKIs annually on the latter basis. And by end year it'll be manufacturing Tejas as well. License building the Rafale might add to that pool of knowledge, but most certainly not enough to justify the cost of the program.

No wonder we can design and demonstrate so many interesting things and they sit and rot forever in going from that point to being in Service at scale

How many things have we designed and developed that couldn't enter service because of production issues? Not many, to the best my knowledge. Whatever problems occur are usually faced in the development stage.

[Karan M]

What is decribed in the Su35 article is a federated architecture. In the canadian compétition, only the F35 and the rafale are credited with sensor fusion (not the SH nor the Typhoon)

Please specify the differences between the Su-35 architecture and the Rafales in detail. Your next point is irrelevant as the Su35 is not in the Canadian competition and neither is its follow on the FGFA/PAKFA.
PS: The article doesn't even mention architecture... just your usual pull stuff out of the air stuff.

[Karan M]

How many things have we designed and developed that couldn't enter service because of production issues? Not many, to the best my knowledge. Whatever problems occur are usually faced in the development stage.

Thats also a lot due to the manufacturing agency. OFB and HAL have both been laggards (one is a disaster, the other had a management which regarded the Tejas as not its own plane). Other DPSUs and private firms been a lot better.

[arthuro]

I guess by reading this article you understood that there was no cancelation of orders. France will ensure there are 11 aircrafts manufactured a year with or without export. If no export it will have to get further ressources to maintain the production but the program will not get canceled until the 225 figure defined in the "white book" is reached. And even then talks are on about developing a rafale NG for the 2030 in parallel to the franco british effort on UCAV.

On this is certain, France won't give up its aeronautic industry easily...the rafale is here for still a long time.

[Viv S]

I guess by reading this article you understood that there was no cancelation of orders.

Domestic orders are down from 320 (or 294) to 185. Which is what I said and which is what the article proves.

France will ensure there are 11 aircrafts manufactured a year with or without export.

Exports were supposed to add to the domestic order, not replace it.

Dassault Indian Win May Triple Rafale Production - 2011

If no export it will have to get further ressources to maintain the production but the program will not get canceled until the 225 figure defined in the "white book" is reached.

225 orders was for the French AF and Navy. The current figure stands at 185. If export orders don't come, the fifth tranche probably won't be ordered.

On this is certain, France won't give up its aeronautic industry easily...the rafale is here for still a long time.

No one is saying that France will give up its aviation industry. The argument was that MoDs don't always get it right, regardless of whether they're British, French or... Indian.

[arthuro]

To correct your misunderstanding and your misinformstion : Current order is 180 (and not 185) with a target at 225 which is enshrined in the white book. Military laws in France are pluri annual and the current one is up to 2018. A fifth batch is almost certain and this will has been reiterated by french Mindef.

Exports will delay current orders but those will not be cancelled. 11 rafale per year will remain the production rate.

[arthuro]

Jean-Yves Le Drian brightens the future of the Rafale for Dassault Aviation and its subcontractors[/b]Modernization contract for more than a billion euros, confirmation of a 5th tranche of national order, launching of a demonstration program for a Rafale successor ... Jean-Yves Le Drian, Defence Minister, gave Dassault Aviation and its partners guarantees for the future of the French fighter aircraft.

They are far the threatening words of Gérard Longuet in 2011, then Minister of Defence, suggesting a possible stop of the Rafale manufacturing after repeated failures to sell abroad. Now the future of the French fighter aircraft appears cleared for many years. January 10 , Merignac (Gironde), in the assembly hall of the comba(t aircraft , the current defense minister Jean-Yves Le Drian reiterated the importance of this strategic sector [....]
For good measure, the Minister did not come empty-handed in Aquitaine . He gave the contract to upgrade the Rafale for 1.1 billion euros (studies and work already started included) to Eric Trappier, CEO of Dassault Aviation before the main actors of the Rafale industry [...]
Jean-Yves Le Drian also wanted to provide guarantees for the supply chain of the Rafale whose production mobilizes 7,000 people and 500 firms, some weakened by the low rates of production. [...] He said that France would continue to order Rafale. "The future of domestic production is assured [...]. Not only the 4th tranche will be achieved but there will be also a 5th tranche.
Icing on the cake, he even spoke after the Rafale! Its successor is expected to enter service for 2030 and would be the result of cooperation with the British. The launch of a demonstration program could take place this year. "This program will lead to the development, on the beginning of the 2020's, of the future operational system that will enter service for 2030," said the minister.

From:
http://www.usinenouvelle.com/article/je ... ts.N231569[/QUOTE]

Read also this article carefully:
http://www.defense-aerospace.com/articl ... e]Dassault Sees More Rafale Opportunities As Indian Deal Nears

(Source: Defense-Aerospace.com; published Mar 14, 2014)

[

] By Giovanni de Briganti
SAINT CLOUD, France --- Dassault Aviation is making a serious effort to compete in a possible Canadian fighter competition, company CEO Eric Trappier said here March 13, but does not believe any other country is likely to drop plans to buy the Lockheed-Martin F-35.

Meanwhile, having made substantial progress in its negotiations to sell its Rafale fighter to India, the also company “believes in our chances” in other countries in the Middle East, in Malaysia and elsewhere, Trappier added. He did not further identify the countries, but Qatar has long been identified as a potential buyer, while France also has resumed Rafale talks with the United Arab Emirates, which BAE Systems said December 19 had abruptly terminated talks over a possible Eurofighter buy.

Except in Canada, Dassault does not see any realistic chance of selling the Rafale as an alternative to the troubled F-35 because most countries involved simply “want to buy American, at whatever price and whatever [its] problems,” Trappier said. He specifically mentioned the Netherlands, where Dassault had made a binding offer for 85 Rafales at a price then slightly higher than that of the F-35. However, the F-35’s price has since increased so much that the Dutch can now only afford to buy 37 F-35s for the same budget, but they have no intention of switching to another fighter.

The situation is different in Canada, he said, where “they are really considering whether to pull out of the F-35 program….if they decide to have a competition, we think Rafale has a good chance of winning.” Dassault would provide a large technology transfer package as well as direct offsets to Canadian industry, including local assembly, Trappier said.

In fact, Dassault stands to make more money by licensing final assembly to export customers than by doing the work itself. It has fine-tuned its own Rafale assembly line for maximum efficiency at a reduced rate of 11 Rafales per year. Increasing this rate would upset the current balance, and increase costs, whereas outsourcing final assembly, which accounts for about 10% of total production costs, actually increases Dassault’s operating margin thanks to the various royalty and technical assistance payments it would receive, not to mention the lower prices it would negotiate from its supply chain. The company has thus been able to turn what is generally regarded as a source of cost into a potential source of profit, although this remains to be tested in real life.

This is one reason why the 18 Rafales that Dassault would supply in “fly-away” condition to India would replace aircraft ordered by France on the assembly line, leaving the production rate unchanged.

Regarding negotiations with India, Trappier said they were progressing well, and confirmed that an agreement had been reached with India’s state-owned Hindustan Aerospace Ltd. (HAL) on work-sharing. “We have passed a decisive milestone with HAL, which has finalized its supply chain, and our supply chains will now work together in a clearly defined industrial organization” for production, he added.

Most importantly, it has now been agreed that “HAL is responsible for what it does,” a condition that Dassault was insisting on as it refused to accept contractual responsibility for work over which it had no control.

Given that work-share and production issues have delayed contract signature for the past two years, the implication is that the final obstacle has now been lifted, although Dassault officials did not say so outright.

Other points made at the March 13 press conference at which Dassault announced its 2013 financial results are:

]- Six of the 11 Rafales delivered in 2013 were equipped with an AESA radar;

- France’s decision that it will operate 225 combat aircraft means that Dassault will receive a final order for 45 additional Rafales, as 180 have been ordered to date. ]- “The euro is a true constraint for European exporters”;
- “The United States are a low-cost country, but with a technological edge.”

- Dassault Aviation has cash reserves of 3.7 billion euros.

- The Neuron UCAV demonstrator has flown about 20 sorties since it resumed flight testing in October. Earlier “ground tests of its radar cross-section confirmed that we have mastered stealth technologies,” Trappier said.

- Dassault’s Rafale offer to Canada would include in-country final assembly, production of certain parts and components, the transfer of all maintenance and upgrade work to Canada, as well as intellectual property rights and all technology transfers approved by the French government, Dassault Vice-President Yves Robins told Radio Canada during a March 13 interview (French only—Ed.) in Montreal.

- The company continues to divide its profits among all stakeholders. Its net profit of €336 million will produce dividends of €90 million for shareholders and profit-sharing of €109 million for its 8,000 employees, while the balance will be re-invested, notably to finance the company’s own research and

[/quote]

[brar_w]

When is the 225th Rafale set for delivery to the french?

[Viv S]

To correct your misunderstanding and your misinformstion : Current order is 180 (and not 185) with a target at 225 which is enshrined in the white book. Military laws in France are pluri annual and the current one is up to 2018. A fifth batch is almost certain and this will has been reiterated by french Mindef.

My posts were all perfectly clear and factual. The fourth tranche raises the total production from 120 to 180 and the fifth tranche as per plan will take it to 225.

France's domestic orders on the other hand have been revised down to 225 - 40 = 185. If those 40 exports don't pan out, the French state will be forced to purchase them, and the subsequent fifth tranche may well not happen.

Exports will delay current orders but those will not be cancelled. 11 rafale per year will remain the production rate.

So you think those 40 aircraft will be accommodated in a sixth production tranche? I believe that's a mistaken idea.

[Viv S]

When is the 225th Rafale set for delivery to the french?

Second half of 2023, if Dassault can swing the Qatar deal. Otherwise production may end with 180 units in 2019.

The stakes are high for France, whose recent multi-year budget would buy only 26 Rafales from 2014 – 2019, despite a minimum required production rate of 11 jets per year. The French order would only last until the spring of 2016. Given the contract penalties involved in falling below minimum production, France would be forced to move its own orders forward, unless significant export orders arrive to rescue the production line. - DID

[arthuro]

]France's domestic orders on the other hand have been revised down to 225 - 40 = 185. If those 40 exports don't pan out, the French state will be forced to purchase them, and the subsequent fifth tranche may well not happen

This is not true that export will decrease the white book figure for 225 rafales. The white book is a major strategic review in France. For the airforce to satisfy its commitments a minimum 225 rafales are needed which will require a fifth batch (confirmed by french mindef).

From the previous article:

France’s decision that it will operate 225 combat aircraft means that Dassault will receive a final order for 45 additional Rafales, as 180 have been ordered to date.

Also an interisting summary of the french white book:

the French White Paper on Defence and National Security ; excerpts:

Page 9:
The air forces will have 225 fighters (Air Force + Navy), 50 transport aircraft, a dozen multi-role tanker aircraft, 12 surveillance drones theater, 7 aerial surveillance and detection aircrafts ...

Page 47:
"The combat Aviation:
The rise of the multirole rafale fleet , which has demonstrated its operational performance in recent conflicts, will be continued quantitatively and qualitatively, with work for the integration of long-range Meteor air-to-air missiles and laser designation pods new generation (NG PDL). The latest 2000 Mirage (Mirage 2000D) will be upgraded. In addition, the studies, initiated with the UCAV demonstrator NEURON will be pursued to lead ,beyond 2020, to a program to renew the combat aviation. "

So, regarding fighter aircrafts , the White Paper does validate the current situation. Indeed, in late 2012, the French army had officially 226 Rafale+Mirage2000+Mirage F1 (see annexe 5, link 2).
What does this mean for the Rafale?

If the objectives of the White Paper 2013 are followed beyond 2018, it would remain a single order of 45 Rafale to be delivered between 2018 and 2022 at the current rate. (180 aircraft are already ordered and will be delivered until 2018).
But in fact, there is no impact on the current decade and we will have to await the outcome of the forthcoming White Paper in 2018, to know the true fate of the French Rafale fleet.

Source:
http://www.lefigaro.fr/assets/pdf/Livre_blanc_2013.pdf
http://www.assemblee-nationale.fr/14...-tIII-a10.asp#

As you can read no cancellation of orders for export but Just postponing of deliveries. It is a budgetary gamble but France is commited to take all the rafale in the end.

Under the draft budget, the military will slow the pace at which it takes delivery of Rafale jets ordered from Dassault Aviation, only taking 26 of the planes over the six years, down from some 11 planes a year.

The government hopes foreign orders will absorb some of the planes being rolled out by partly state-owned Dassault, which has yet to sell one of its flagship Rafales abroad but says it has to produce at least 11 a year to operate efficiently.The move will delay promised payments for the planes, worth roughly $120 million apiece, easing pressure on state coffers.

Relying on elusive export deals to sustain Rafale production is a gamble that could misfire and lead to Paris having to revise its own order upwards in the future. In all, France has made commitments to buy 180 Rafales, a third of which have yet to be budgeted for.

Exports will not decrease french orders in the end, just postpone deliveries which will keep the production line open for a longer period. With india and Quatar if it materializes, production line could be open till close to 2030.

[member_23694]

If i check Wiki , then for Mirage 2000 :
Total aircraft built: 601 .
Introduction : 1982. Last produced : 2007. So 25 years 601 aircraft's, average around 24 per year

Rafale :
Total aircraft built (till now) : 130
Introduction : 2001. average around 10 per year

Yes Rafale is at half the rate compared to Mirage 2000, but then from these figures it shows that France was never in making 1000's of aircraft compared to USSR or USA.
So I am not sure why this discussion of how many Rafale will ultimately be produced. Rafale was never planned for 3000 aircraft like the JSF.

[Philip]

Dhan,pl. don't shoot the messenger! The alternatives are being debated only because of the cost controversy of the Rafale. If the IAF simply want a western bird,then their are cost-effective alternatives like the Gripen.The SU-35 is a completely diff. bird than the original SU-30s which the IAF procured years ago and tinkered with into the MKI version.At that time the sensor fusion tech had not matured enough unlike now,with the single-seat SU-35.The MIG-29UG is also a totally different aircraft capability wise than original 29s sold to E.Germany.Here are two reports which give details of the improvements.The first was posted earlier.

http://in.rbth.com/blogs/2013/09/03/wit ... 29025.html
With the MiG-29 on steroids, who needs the Rafale
September 3, 2013 Rakesh Krishnan Simha
With the air defence MiG-29s being upgraded to an advanced multirole aircraft, the Indian Air Force could save more than $10 billion by scratching the Rafale.
Xcpt:

Rafale’s costs may defy gravity

Another problem with the Rafale is the ballooning cost. The MMRCA was a requirement of the 2000s but the extended competition has inflated costs to stratospheric levels – from $10 billion a decade ago to around $20 billion, according to the New Delhi-based Institute for Defence Studies & Analysis (IDSA). Plus, nobody reckoned with the falling rupee, which has also increased the cost per plane.

DID believes the 100 or so Rafales would offer some compatibilities with the upgraded Mirage 2000s, but will come at about twice the Sukhoi-30 MKI’s price. “If budget pressures intervene and Tejas continues to lag, India could be forced to buy a less expensive mid-tier plane instead,” it says.

Assembly of MiG-29K naval fighters (video)

That plane could well be the MiG-29SMT. Its variant, the MiG-35 could easily replace the Rafale if India scratches the MMRCA and opts for a government to government deal instead.

Need for spending wisely

Acquiring the Rafale at such a prohibitive cost is extravagance which India cannot afford at a time when economic growth has hit an embarrassing 5 percent and the rupee is in free fall. “While it was presumed a few years ago that funds for defence would not be a constraint in the future, a slowing economy has led to these funds being curtailed,” says the IDSA. “The writing on the wall is clear: resource constraints are looming for the armed forces.”

When advanced Russian aircraft are available for less than half the price of the Rafale, it would be prudent to wait before signing on the line that is dotted. The money can be better spent on beefing up the Tejas programme. For the kind of cash we are talking, there is a hell of a lot of red hot technology that cash strapped defence companies in the West will part with.
inShare

http://www.defenseindustrydaily.com/ind ... ted-01879/
A Better Baaz: Program Updates
India’s Fighter Modernization: Add MiG-29s to the List

6 Indian MiG 29 jets upgraded in Russia
Last Updated: Monday, April 01, 2013, 16:26

Kuala Lumpur: Six of the 69 MiG-29 fighter planes of the Indian Air Force have been upgraded in Russia and the remaining jets will be upgraded in India, a Russian official has said.
The official from the Russian Aircraft Corporation MiG made the comments at the Langkawi International Maritime and Aerospace Exhibition 2013 in Malaysia on Saturday, the closing day of the exhibition.

The official said the modernisation is carried out in two stages. At the first stage, six planes were flown to Russia, accompanied by an Indian project team, which will then teach specialists in India, Russian news agency Itar-Tass reported.

Three of the six planes have already gone back home. The other three are being upgraded at Nizhny Novgorod's Sokol, which is part of MiG. They will be handed over to India before the end of the year, the official was quoted as saying.
At the second stage, the remaining 63 fighter planes will be upgraded in India by Indian specialists, the official said.

The modernisation programme was launched in 2009 in cooperation with India's HAL (Hindustan Aeronautics Limited).
The IAF has awarded the MiG corporation a USD 900 million contract to upgrade all of its 69 operational MiG-29s.

These upgrades include a new avionics kit, with the N-109 radar being replaced by a Phazatron Zhuk-M radar. The aircraft is also being equipped to enhance beyond-visual-range combat ability and for air-to-air refuelling to increase flying time.
The service life of the modernised aircraft has been extended to 40 years, Russian media reports had said.
In 2007, Russia gave HAL a license to manufacture 120 RD-33 series 3 turbojet engines for the upgrade

If you look at upgrade costs,for under $1B the entire lot of 69 MIG-29s are being upgraded while upgrading just 40+ M-2000s for $2.5B! The IN's MIG-29Ks (with 30 times rcs reduction due to new stealth coatings,say some reports) were bought at just $32M/aircraft.You could buy 2 new MIG-29Ks for the price of just one M-2000 upgrade.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 804336.cms
High cost of Mirage-2000 upgrade raises eyebrows

NEW DELHI: Should India have simply gone in for new fighters rather than upgrading its 51 Mirage-2000s at an exorbitant cost? This question came to the fore once again on Monday with defence minister AK Antony telling Parliament that the upgrade cost for each jet was Rs 167 crore.

This when the last lot of the French-origin Mirage-2000s - their induction began in the mid-1980s - contracted by India in 2000 cost just Rs 133 crore apiece. However, Antony, in a written reply to Lok Sabha, said, "Applying an escalation of 3.5% per annum as per the pricing policy review committee, to the contracted cost of the year 2000, it works out to be Rs 195 crore at 2011 levels. Thus, the upgrade has been undertaken at 85% of the aircraft's escalated cost."

However, the Rs 167-crore figure does not give the full picture. The overall upgrade programme of the Mirage-2000s is pegged at Rs 17,547 crore, with the first two fighters being upgraded in France and the rest (49) by Hindustan Aeronautics (HAL) under transfer of technology (ToT). If this figure is taken into account, then each Mirage upgrade will cost Rs 344 crore. (almost $60M)

What guarantee is there that Rafale costs will also skyrocket in the future,for just 4.5 gen tech when before the decade end we will be in a position to acquire our first FGFAs?

[Manish_Sharma]

If i check Wiki , then for Mirage 2000 :
Total aircraft built: 601 .
Introduction : 1982. Last produced : 2007. So 25 years 601 aircraft's, average around 24 per year

Rafale :
Total aircraft built (till now) : 130
Introduction : 2001. average around 10 per year

Yes Rafale is at half the rate compared to Mirage 2000, but then from these figures it shows that France was never in making 1000's of aircraft compared to USSR or USA.
So I am not sure why this discussion of how many Rafale will ultimately be produced. Rafale was never planned for 3000 aircraft like the JSF.

I can't remember whether it was Retd. Airchief Fali Homi Major OR Vasant Naik who had said about this being an additional advantage that a certain aircraft isn't used by other airforces. In a way he said if Rafale was not used by other airforces then it was advantegeous to have such a plane, but can't find that statement now!

[Philip]

It makes it even more expensive.If a Western bird is what the IAF want,then the Gripen looks more and more attractive,esp. if as SAAB have offered,tech help to speed up the LCA Mk-2.Another couple of MKI/SU-34/35 sqds. could serve the strike needs,with the far cheaper than the Rafale, Gripen ,affordable in decent numbers.

Option 4?

[Manish_Sharma]

Dhan,pl. don't shoot the messenger! The alternatives are being debated only because of the cost controversy of the Rafale. If the IAF simply want a western bird,then their are cost-effective alternatives like the Gripen.The SU-35 is a completely diff. bird than the original SU-30s which the IAF procured years ago and tinkered with into the MKI version.At that time the sensor fusion tech had not matured enough unlike now,with the single-seat SU-35.The MIG-29UG is also a totally different aircraft capability wise than original 29s sold to E.Germany.Here are two reports which give details of the improvements.The first was posted earlier.

Please educate here that why even after acquiring Su-30s the IAF still demanded the govt. for MRCA ~ Mirage 2000 planes in 126 numbers? Why inspite of having these supermanuevering jets the IAF still wanted delicate darling lesser gymnast M2k?

As for grippen, there is nothing that it adds which is better than Tejas, the swedes are lying and putting up false private company brochures with bloated performance. While Tejas' specifications are presented as factually by the govt. agency which can't act like snakeoil-seller private company swedish saab!

I'd have agreed if you had put a 300 Tejas number instead of su 35s. But you always support russian or british platforms never Bharat's.

"How dare saalaa indians design their own LCA aircraft? They should just make changes in Mig 21 and continue to operate till 2050+..." is presented by you in your diplomatically written posts.

Even in the other thread where LCH was presented as alternative to apache and you'd to bring in mi-35s the russian platform.

NO THE BLOODY CHEAT RUSSIANS WHO EVEN KEPT SAYING RUDELY "ETA SECRET" (its a secret) TO EVERY QUESTION OF OUR NAVY MEN ON TRAINING THIS ROTTEN GORSHKOV. WHAT'S SO SUPER-SECRET ABOUT GORSHKOV THAT THESE INGRATEFUL LOOTERS DON'T WANT TO SHARE WITH BHARAT? Well the russia has move on, they've made it clear by selling S-300s to china and allowing china to provide the copies of these to porkis. Russians have moved on by selling the mi-35s to our mortal enemy porkistan. Now let them become another homo-lover of porkis like america.

Bharat's future is in doing business with France and Israel, even by paying through our nose we will have another pillar supprted which can stand against anglos + americans.

What guarantee is there that Rafale costs will also skyrocket in the future,for just 4.5 gen tech when before the decade end we will be in a position to acquire our first FGFAs?

This is a valid point. I guess only russian cheats have the monoply rights over skyrocketing their original quoted prices, the others they don't. In case it happens with gorshkov just dismiss it with "oh i accept their was mistake on both the sides...."

While reneging on the already paid agreement regarding ToT of T-90 gun barrel is a norm of the day for russians, our experience with french isn't like that, they loot us once in the beginning of deal and then everything goes smoothly till the end.

Actually with pokharan and kargil experience, I don't mind paying french through the nose

1.) Their open support for Pokharan Tests, Statesman Shri Jacques Chirac's statement "we understand India's compulsions......" while cock%^$#%#$^% tony blair and his lover clinton the cock%^$#%#$^% were working secretly and openly respetively agains us.

2.) During Kargil the precision bombing by M2k plus the ease with which our technicians made changes in the platform to make in a strike capable one.

So if scamthony can buy gold tea set equipped helicopters from sonia's country, I don't mind a little extra money going to french.

When the war happens arnold schwarzneggar type airshow impressers like mig 29 and mki will start disintegrating after they're put up sortie after sortie, while like a yogi having healthy organs the M2k and Rafale will pull many times more sorties without breaking a nut. That's what IAF is looking for its elite MMRCA batch & Tejas batch (hence superdemanding by IAF during testing).

While migs-sukhois-jaguars can just make up for the numbers.

[Viv S]

This is not true that export will decrease the white book figure for 225 rafales. The white book is a major strategic review in France. For the airforce to satisfy its commitments a minimum 225 rafales are needed which will require a fifth batch (confirmed by french mindef).

- From the French MoD's White Paper in 2008: total number of fighters (AdlA + MN) was to be 300.

- From the White Paper 2013: the revised total of combat aircraft (AdlA + MN) is to be 225.

- This figure includes both the Rafale and upgraded Mirage 2000Ds. 180 Rafale B/C/M + 45 Mirage 2000D-R3.

- All figures are again subject to revision on release of the next White Paper in 2018.

[Manish_Sharma]

It makes it even more expensive.If a Western bird is what the IAF want,then the Gripen looks more and more attractive,esp. if as SAAB have offered,tech help to speed up the LCA Mk-2.Another couple of MKI/SU-34/35 sqds. could serve the strike needs,with the far cheaper than the Rafale, Gripen ,affordable in decent numbers.

Option 4?

Why the hell would swedes want to help in LCA Mk.2 their own competitor in this class, looks like everybody accept our own people are to be trusted by some.

Having same engine as LCA and almost same size the figures put up for grippen by private company saab is completely false. But I can understand burning with anger and jealousy the rejected mig 35 and su-35 supporters want to take revenge by praising the competitor to LCA Tejas.

----------------------------------------------------------------

Actually saab grippen helping with Tejas Mk. 2 will solve twin purpose, it'll give the competitor to sabotage Mk. 2 and Tejas Or anything indigenous haters can heave a sigh of relief.

As PAK FA lost a prototype in engine fire last month, I have a suggestion for Putin that he should go lick the boots of Obama so Boeing, LM provide assitance with PAK FA.

[arthuro]

With the retirement of mirages, rafale is the only option available to make up the 225 figure. Hence the mindef confirmed that a 5th batch will be ordered which will make up the 225 figure with an homogeneous fleet of rafale.

Jean-Yves Le Drian brightens the future of the Rafale for Dassault Aviation and its subcontractors[/b]Modernization contract for more than a billion euros, confirmation of a 5th tranche of national order, launching of a demonstration program for a Rafale successor ... Jean-Yves Le Drian, Defence Minister, gave Dassault Aviation and its partners guarantees for the future of the French fighter aircraft.

They are far the threatening words of Gérard Longuet in 2011, then Minister of Defence, suggesting a possible stop of the Rafale manufacturing after repeated failures to sell abroad. Now the future of the French fighter aircraft appears cleared for many years. January 10 , Merignac (Gironde), in the assembly hall of the comba(t aircraft , the current defense minister Jean-Yves Le Drian reiterated the importance of this strategic sector [....]
For good measure, the Minister did not come empty-handed in Aquitaine . He gave the contract to upgrade the Rafale for 1.1 billion euros (studies and work already started included) to Eric Trappier, CEO of Dassault Aviation before the main actors of the Rafale industry [...]
Jean-Yves Le Drian also wanted to provide guarantees for the supply chain of the Rafale whose production mobilizes 7,000 people and 500 firms, some weakened by the low rates of production. [...] He said that France would continue to order Rafale. "The future of domestic production is assured [...]. Not only the 4th tranche will be achieved but there will be also a 5th tranche.
Icing on the cake, he even spoke after the Rafale! Its successor is expected to enter service for 2030 and would be the result of cooperation with the British. The launch of a demonstration program could take place this year. "This program will lead to the development, on the beginning of the 2020's, of the future operational system that will enter service for 2030," said the minister

.[/quote]

4th tranche will be achieved and a 5th tranche ordered. Nothing like your minus 40 for export fantasy.

Now lets quote the white book directly...

La nouvelle cible arrêtée par la LPM prévoit 215 avions de combat, dont trois escadrons de Mirage 2000, à l'horizon 2020, ce qui est tout à fait compatible avec le calendrier de livraison envisagé (voir infra). Au-delà de l'horizon 2020, quand la question du remplacement des M2000 se posera, il faudra, au minimum (c'est-à-dire en faisant l'hypothèse d'une absence totale d'attrition pour le futur), une cinquième tranche de 50 appareils pour entrer dans le format cible du modèle d'armée tel que dessiné aujourd'hui (180 en T4 + 50 en T5 - 5 attritions = 225 appareils).

So the fifth batch will be at minimum 50 aircrafts without attrition...you should understand that there are no other option than rafale in france which makes a fifth batch certain. Even the current socialist mindef is already pushing for it...Not to mention France is investing 1.1 billion euros for this tranche in development which is another indicator that a fifth tranche is firmly on its way.

The only remaining question is will French Mindef gamble on export will hold otherwise it will have to found ressources to respect its commitments towards Dassault and the white book.

[Viv S]

With the retirement of mirages, rafale is the only option available to make up the 225 figure.

The Mirage 2000D was delivered to the AdlA between 1995 and 2001 while the first Rafale was delivered in 2000.

The Mirage will remain in service till at least 2030 when it'll likely start being replaced by a UCAV.

Hence the mindef confirmed that a 5th batch will be ordered which will make up the 225 figure with an homogeneous fleet of rafale.

5th batch assuming the 40 Rafales from the 4th batch get exported.

[arthuro]

Wrong again. 4th batch will be executed entirely and a fifth batch ordered. Official sources hereabove or and reposted below (mindef and white book)

With the retirement of mirages, rafale is the only option available to make up the 225 figure. Hence the mindef confirmed that a 5th batch will be ordered which will make up the 225 figure with an homogeneous fleet of rafale.

Jean-Yves Le Drian brightens the future of the Rafale for Dassault Aviation and its subcontractors[/b]Modernization contract for more than a billion euros, confirmation of a 5th tranche of national order, launching of a demonstration program for a Rafale successor ... Jean-Yves Le Drian, Defence Minister, gave Dassault Aviation and its partners guarantees for the future of the French fighter aircraft.

They are far the threatening words of Gérard Longuet in 2011, then Minister of Defence, suggesting a possible stop of the Rafale manufacturing after repeated failures to sell abroad. Now the future of the French fighter aircraft appears cleared for many years. January 10 , Merignac (Gironde), in the assembly hall of the comba(t aircraft , the current defense minister Jean-Yves Le Drian reiterated the importance of this strategic sector [....]
For good measure, the Minister did not come empty-handed in Aquitaine . He gave the contract to upgrade the Rafale for 1.1 billion euros (studies and work already started included) to Eric Trappier, CEO of Dassault Aviation before the main actors of the Rafale industry [...]
Jean-Yves Le Drian also wanted to provide guarantees for the supply chain of the Rafale whose production mobilizes 7,000 people and 500 firms, some weakened by the low rates of production. [...] He said that France would continue to order Rafale. "The future of domestic production is assured [...]. Not only the 4th tranche will be achieved but there will be also a 5th tranche.Icing on the cake, he even spoke after the Rafale! Its successor is expected to enter service for 2030 and would be the result of cooperation with the British. The launch of a demonstration program could take place this year. "This program will lead to the development, on the beginning of the 2020's, of the future operational system that will enter service for 2030," said the minister

4th tranche will be achieved and a 5th tranche ordered. Nothing like your minus 40 for export fantasy.

Now lets quote the white book direc]tly...

La nouvelle cible arrêtée par la LPM prévoit 215 avions de combat, dont trois escadrons de Mirage 2000, à l'horizon 2020, ce qui est tout à fait compatible avec le calendrier de livraison envisagé (voir infra). Au-delà de l'horizon 2020, quand la question du remplacement des M2000 se posera, il faudra, au minimum (c'est-à-dire en faisant l'hypothèse d'une absence totale d'attrition pour le futur), une cinquième tranche de 50 appareils pour entrer dans le format cible du modèle d'armée tel que dessiné aujourd'hui (180 en T4 + 50 en T5 - 5 attritions = 225 appareils)

So the fifth batch will be at minimum 50 aircrafts without attrition...you should understand that there are no other option than rafale in france which makes a fifth batch certain. Even the current socialist mindef is already pushing for it...Not to mention France is investing 1.1 billion euros for this tranche in development which is another indicator that a fifth tranche is firmly on its way.

The only remaining question is will French Mindef gamble on export will hold otherwise it will have to found ressources to respect its commitments towards Dassault and the white book.