Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby member_28756 » 03 Jan 2015 21:46

So 2 Rafales = 2 MKI + 4 LCA ......... 8 LCA = 2 MKI + 1 Rafale :roll:

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Sid » 03 Jan 2015 21:49

chetak wrote:
chackojoseph wrote:France is not an unreliable supplier. They never stopped supplies during sanctions or war. Hence I would like India to buy atleast 60 which helps both quantity and quality.


France is an immoral and conscienceless supplier. During the falklands war they supplied the same system to both sides but hiked up the prices. Their only loyalty is to the money. All else is just window dressing.

and they call britain a"nation of shopkeepers"


That's true for all weapon suppliers, Russia, Khan, Brits, Italians etc etc.

You can find same vendors selling stuff to both us and Porkies. Khan even had the balls to sell same bloody F16 while giving them free of charge to Porkies.

But idea is to find a way to benefit in such a lucrative market.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby ritesh » 03 Jan 2015 21:51

Is 20 Billion affordable???
Certainly no....And that why Asutin's proposal is on highly sensible lines.

So 2 Rafales = 2 MKI + 4 LCA ......... 8 LCA = 2 MKI + 1 Rafale

Quantity has its Quality, isnt it?

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby GeorgeWelch » 03 Jan 2015 23:27

chackojoseph wrote:Parrikar to hasten defence acquisition

Speaking to mediapersons, Parrikar signalled that the Sukhoi-30Mki fighter jets — costing Rs 358 crore each, or almost half the expected cost of the French Rafale



Good luck getting it for that price, MKI has not been that cheap for many years.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Victor » 04 Jan 2015 01:04

Rafale is several notches above the MKI in quality, effectiveness, performance, serviceability and cost. Per piece acquisition cost is not relevant. It is a qualitative jump over anything the chinese have right now or will have for some time. It is a force multiplier that we cannot afford not to have. This is why my guess is Parrikar is bluffing to put pressure on Dassault.

Having said that, the French being so stubborn should be a huge concern. It's almost as if they are fairly certain that India has no other option.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Shalav » 04 Jan 2015 02:50

GeorgeWelch wrote:
Speaking to mediapersons, Parrikar signalled that the Sukhoi-30Mki fighter jets — costing Rs 358 crore each, or almost half the expected cost of the French Rafale



Good luck getting it for that price, MKI has not been that cheap for many years.


Good one there George, sitting on your armchair, now you know even more about prices than the guy who actually approves the checks.

Well done!

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Cain Marko » 04 Jan 2015 02:52

One doubts rafales lifecycle cost will be any less than MKI, would hardly be surprised if they were higher - remember French MLUs cost a fortune, exact opposite of Russian gear.

+100 to Austin's idea above, makes excellent sense and mitigates most of the problems cited so far such as:

Cost
Falling numbers
quick induction
top heavy structure by relying mainly on flankers
over reliance on Russia
fleet and supply chain diversity

Hope some decision maker gets wind of this

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby GeorgeWelch » 04 Jan 2015 03:13

Shalav wrote:
GeorgeWelch wrote:
Good luck getting it for that price, MKI has not been that cheap for many years.


Good one there George, sitting on your armchair, now you know even more about prices than the guy who actually approves the checks.

Well done!


Ajay Banerjee does not approve the checks.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Cosmo_R » 04 Jan 2015 03:18

ritesh wrote:Is 20 Billion affordable???
Certainly no....And that why Asutin's proposal is on highly sensible lines.

So 2 Rafales = 2 MKI + 4 LCA ......... 8 LCA = 2 MKI + 1 Rafale

Quantity has its Quality, isnt it?


Depends on whether the numbers are on your side. If not, quality--even the ability to get heck out real fast, matters.

Put another way, to the air staff at HQ, quantity is quality. To the one pilot facing 3 enemy a/c quality is quantity.

If you have in 5 million Sopwith camels against a 5G, it could be a fair fight :)

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Cosmo_R » 04 Jan 2015 03:22

Cain Marko wrote:One doubts rafales lifecycle cost will be any less than MKI, would hardly be surprised if they were higher - remember French MLUs cost a fortune, exact opposite of Russian gear.

+100 to Austin's idea above, makes excellent sense and mitigates most of the problems cited so far such as:

Cost
Falling numbers
quick induction
top heavy structure by relying mainly on flankers
over reliance on Russia
fleet and supply chain diversity

Hope some decision maker gets wind of this


What about the Berievs?, the MTA, the PAK/FA and all the other Russian projects we need to fund? It's our duty to help them. :)

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Cain Marko » 04 Jan 2015 03:58

Well you have a choice to fund outright buys as with the French and the US or at least get some semblance of workshare at half the cost with the Russians. Pick yer pizen, pardner

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby chackojoseph » 04 Jan 2015 06:57

GeorgeWelch wrote:Ajay Banerjee does not approve the checks.


He has quoted official figures.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby GeorgeWelch » 04 Jan 2015 07:08

chackojoseph wrote:
GeorgeWelch wrote:Ajay Banerjee does not approve the checks.


He has quoted official figures.


From when?

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby chackojoseph » 04 Jan 2015 07:11

Same day or a day after the defence minister gave the figures.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby NRao » 04 Jan 2015 07:22

chackojoseph wrote:Same day or a day after the defence minister gave the figures.


How old is the number? IIRC, it should be around 440 crores.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby chackojoseph » 04 Jan 2015 09:00

In this context, I am stating the defence ministers brief and Ajay Bannerjee's article timing as asked by GeorgeWelch. it was reply to a specific question.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby ritesh » 04 Jan 2015 09:39

GeorgeWelch wrote:Good luck getting it for that price, MKI has not been that cheap for many years.

GW, however expensive it may become, but still would be long way off the Rafale price :mrgreen:
Plus point, it is being mfg by HAL with good indigenous content%.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby ritesh » 04 Jan 2015 09:44

Cosmo_R wrote:What about the Berievs?, the MTA, the PAK/FA and all the other Russian projects we need to fund? It's our duty to help them. :)

Atleast on paper, these are equal equal project (JVs).
Not like Rafale, which is already competent and only mfg rights with TOT are to be procured.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby GeorgeWelch » 04 Jan 2015 10:04

chackojoseph wrote:Same day or a day after the defence minister gave the figures.


Do you have a link to him giving those figures? I've looked and can't find where it's listed.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby ritesh » 04 Jan 2015 10:18

deejay wrote:
Nitesh wrote:Well it seems there is some serious issue, now DM says no need for rafales

http://www.business-standard.com/articl ... 706_1.html


Thank You Nitesh, for catching this. I am posting the relevant part of the article and it comes from the keyboard of Colonel Shukla:
For the first time since January 31, 2012, when the French Rafale fighter was chosen as the future medium multi-role combat aircraft (MMRCA) for the Indian Air Force (IAF), it has been officially admitted that there are serious problems in negotiating the purchase with the French vendor, Dassault.

Speaking to the media on Tuesday evening, Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar said there were “complications” in the negotiations, already on for almost three years, with the French side reluctant to meet commitments that IAF had specified in the tender. Parrikar did not reveal details.

Business Standard had reported on Dassault’s unwillingness to assume responsibility for the production of Rafales by Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd, which the tender mandated. HAL is to build 108 Rafales in India with technology transferred from Dassault and its sub-vendors.

Ominously for Dassault, Parrikar said additional Sukhoi-30MKI fighters, which HAL builds in Nashik, were adequate for the IAF in case it was decided not to procure the Rafale.

The IAF currently plans to have 272 Su-30MKI fighters by about 2018. HAL’s Nashik production line is building the fighter at Rs 358 crore each, less than half the estimated cost of buying the Rafale.

“The Su-30MKI is an adequate aircraft for meeting the air force’s needs,” said Parrikar.

Earlier this month, Parrikar had assured French counterpart Jean-Yves Le Drian, during the latter’s visit to New Delhi on December 1, that Rafale negotiations would be placed on a “fast track”, according to ministry of defence (MoD) officials.

The minister revealed on Tuesday that the French minister “has (committed) to send an empowered person to negotiate after New Year.”

According to the terms of the MMRCA tender, 18 of the 126 fighters being bought would be supplied fully built abroad, with the remaining 108 manufactured by HAL. The cost of the project, originally sanctioned at Rs 42,000 crore, has crossed Rs 1,00,000 crore, according to expert estimates.

...
GW, FYI...

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby chackojoseph » 04 Jan 2015 10:24

GeorgeWelch wrote:
chackojoseph wrote:Same day or a day after the defence minister gave the figures.


Do you have a link to him giving those figures? I've looked and can't find where it's listed.


You have already quoted the link in the first post.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby GeorgeWelch » 04 Jan 2015 10:52

ritesh wrote:GW, FYI...


That's not a quote from Parrikar, that's inserted by the article author.

It's not clear where the author comes up with that number.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby ritesh » 04 Jan 2015 11:13

GeorgeWelch wrote:
ritesh wrote:GW, FYI...


That's not a quote from Parrikar, that's inserted by the article author.

It's not clear where the author comes up with that number.

Ok, fair ennuff.

Would this suffice?

By standard norms, a fighter fleet consumes five per cent of its worth in consumables and spares each year. By that benchmark the Su-30MKI fleet, currently worth about Rs 69,000 crore - 193 Su-30MKIs at Rs 358 crore a fighter - should consume spares worth Rs 3,450 crore annually. Yet, IAF orders from HAL add up to less than Rs 50 crore, including ground handling equipment.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby kit » 04 Jan 2015 11:17

How about an Su MKI with conformal fuel tanks and enhanced self protection suites and a better AESA radar .. could very well be better than Rafales! ..also MKI is not the last word on the su 30 airframe !..

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby chackojoseph » 04 Jan 2015 11:21

kit wrote:How about an Su MKI with conformal fuel tanks and enhanced self protection suites and a better AESA radar .. could very well be better than Rafales! ..also MKI is not the last word on the su 30 airframe !..


There is something dubbed as super flanker. It possibly has a roadmap for flankers including MKI version.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby Viv S » 04 Jan 2015 11:36

ritesh wrote:Ok, fair ennuff.

Would this suffice?

By standard norms, a fighter fleet consumes five per cent of its worth in consumables and spares each year. By that benchmark the Su-30MKI fleet, currently worth about Rs 69,000 crore - 193 Su-30MKIs at Rs 358 crore a fighter - should consume spares worth Rs 3,450 crore annually. Yet, IAF orders from HAL add up to less than Rs 50 crore, including ground handling equipment.


The Rs 358 crore figure is probably not at current prices. Rs 69,000 crore would likely be the cumulative spending on 193 aircraft, unadjusted for inflation.

From the same journalist -

Yet this is small change compared to the massive order of 272 Su-30MKIs, which started out as a bargain at $30 million apiece, but which are now priced at $75 million each.

http://ajaishukla.blogspot.in/2014/04/a ... 30mki.html


Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd, which manufactures the Tejas, has quoted Rs 162 crore a fighter as its latest price. Amortising the entire development cost on the envisioned 344 fighters (IAF: 294; Navy: 50), the Tejas would cost Rs 209 crore ($33.5 million) per fighter.

In comparison, the IAF’s Mirage 2000 fighters, bought in the 1980s, are currently being upgraded for $45 million per aircraft. IAF pilots that test-fly the Tejas Mark I find it qualitatively superior to the Mirage 2000.

The heavier Sukhoi-30MKI costs more than Rs 400 crore ($65 million) each. And the Rafale, which is currently being negotiated with Dassault, is pegged at Rs 750-850 crore ($120-140 million) per fighter.

http://www.business-standard.com/articl ... 237_1.html


(The Rafale will cost far more Rs 850 crore each, once the ToT, licensing, training and infrastructure costs are factored in.)

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby GeorgeWelch » 04 Jan 2015 12:15

ritesh wrote:Ok, fair ennuff.

Would this suffice?


Excellent research for finding where the author got that figure from, thanks

And then of course thanks to Viv S for explaining why that figure isn't particularly relevant.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby ritesh » 04 Jan 2015 12:31

:roll:

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby chackojoseph » 04 Jan 2015 12:47

GeorgeWelch wrote:Excellent research for finding where the author got that figure from, thanks

And then of course thanks to Viv S for explaining why that figure isn't particularly relevant.


Not really. Even if the Rafale is equivalent to SU-30 MKI cost, even then, as per the def ministers logic (not mine), is costly. They decide by their logic.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby NRao » 04 Jan 2015 13:11

Chacko,

That is not true. All Parrikar has stated, as far as I know, is that the Rafale negotiations have complications. And that the MKI is "adequate" and costs about half the price.

That does not say anything more than he has an option that he feels is worth talking about to influence the Rafale negotiations.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby ritesh » 04 Jan 2015 13:15

chackojoseph wrote:
GeorgeWelch wrote:Excellent research for finding where the author got that figure from, thanks

And then of course thanks to Viv S for explaining why that figure isn't particularly relevant.


Not really. Even if the Rafale is equivalent to SU-30 MKI cost, even then, as per the def ministers logic (not mine), is costly. They decide by their logic.


NRao wrote:Chacko,

That is not true. All Parrikar has stated, as far as I know, is that the Rafale negotiations have complications. And that the MKI is "adequate" and costs about half the price.

That does not say anything more than he has an option that he feels is worth talking about to influence the Rafale negotiations.
This is called giving a SPIN :lol:

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby NRao » 04 Jan 2015 13:18

Then unSPIN it for me. Instead of adding more SPIN.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby ritesh » 04 Jan 2015 13:39

^ referring to journos who said They decide by their logic

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby kit » 04 Jan 2015 14:36

I suppose the GOI has a lot more data to decide on than open source for BRFites .. it would be reasonable to assume that the more it is delayed the lesser chances that the Rafale makes it ..and even if does it will be at the most about a hundred ..and then it may not make much sense at all ...also indications are that the french are more concentrating on a 5/6 generation tech on a entirely new platform ..the rafale purchase if it goes through will feed into this project via profits .. i would say why subsidise the french , spend the money in india ! ( on the same logic upto a level the russians too) [ hasnt this cycle going on past few decades making india eternally dependent on the west and russia?? ]

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby member_28756 » 04 Jan 2015 16:37

nik wrote:Six aircraft types will require an empire to pay the bill and support. Especially when three of them will cost more than 150 plus million dollars easy. We are again disconnected from reality - look at how many of these uber planes are been deployed or planned by France, Germany and UK. Our economy just cannot support this craziness and we cannot bet on our future growth to be able to 'afford' it. Indian economy is nowhere near US or Chinese economy to play this game.

Rafale and Euro jets are fine pieces of machinery but we just cannot afford these in sufficient numbers to make a difference for our needs. The honest reality is that we can buy parts and components from Europe but not full platforms. Indigenization of foreign designs does not deliver cost savings. They will have their piece of fat no matter how smartly we write the contract. Just look at MKI and Scorpene costs after indigenization. Heck, we still import MKI engines as per my readings.

This MMRCA is spoiling and throwing the wrench in our Europe partnership. We are leading them (and us) in to dead ends and disappointments. Ultimately it will be a waste of time for both (except the middlemen who will walk away with their $$$). Even if we sign the deal, we will cut down the 'planned' numbers couple of years down - when we wake up. Waiting for this day dreaming to stop and hopefully it does not blow up in our face.

No point in beating around the bush - we need to build more LCA MK I and II, Double down on AMCA to replace MKI's in 10 year timeframe.

+1 your post make the best common sense.

LCA all the way !!

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby GeorgeWelch » 04 Jan 2015 19:56

chackojoseph wrote:Not really. Even if the Rafale is equivalent to SU-30 MKI cost, even then, as per the def ministers logic (not mine), is costly. They decide by their logic.


I wasn't talking about the argument of Rafale vs MKI, just the specific cost of the MKI listed as being Rs 358 crore, which wasn't believable.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby GeorgeWelch » 04 Jan 2015 19:58

NRao wrote:That is not true. All Parrikar has stated, as far as I know, is that the Rafale negotiations have complications. And that the MKI is "adequate" and costs about half the price.


That may very well be true, but as far as I can tell he didn't even say that. The only quote from him is that the MKI is adequate. All references to cost were inserted by the journalists.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby pankajs » 04 Jan 2015 20:16

I do not know what the MKI's cost but by the time 272 nos are delivered the fixed/sunken cost would have been recovered as part of the original budgeting/costing. Any additional orders over and above the 272 should come at a discount perhaps even a significant discount depending on the cost structure.

Put another way, any additional order will allow the recovery of fixed cost to be spread over a greater number of air frames than originally planned thus reducing the per unit cost to IAF.

By that time the current orders are done the the production line would mostly be debugged, most TOT issues resolved, manpower fully trained and production running smoothly. Additional MKI's are a good fallback to the French deal and that option should always have been on the table from the beginning.
Last edited by pankajs on 04 Jan 2015 20:23, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby saumitra_j » 04 Jan 2015 20:23

Sorry but do not agree that MKIs will be a good fallback option. There is a reason why the IAF wants the Rafale and not the MKI - and it is primarily due to the operational costs of a Rafale (a single engine jet with one pilot) vis a vis the MKI (twin engine, two pilots et al). If the Tejas were as long legged as the Rafale, that would have made a reasonable substitute but for obvious reasons, that is not going to be the case. For the MKI, IAF will need to change their planning, training and above all, operational costs will go north whilst some of the cool things that the Rafale brought (the electronic suite, man machine interface and so forth) will not come with the MKI ... I think the RM is making that public statement to pressurise the French but I suspect that is his and the IAF's worst case scenario...hope sense prevails with Dassault and the deal goes through. Also, please bear in mind that Tejas Mk2 will also not bridge that gap!

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Re: Rafale & MMRCA News and Discussions-9 August, 2014

Postby pankajs » 04 Jan 2015 20:32

If you read the history of the MMRCA procurement process the IAF needs have evolved and can evolve further to fit the machine. The operational costs and the machine availability(alleged) are the only things that go against MKIs.

But we can agree to disagree.


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