Ok, we are all still learning to use this system, including myself
So what I'm going to do as Umpire is take Shiv's "preparatory" moves as included in his action:
1. Identification of 17 locations where LOC fencing is to be targeted for breaching. Sabotage and earth moving teams readied if necessary.
2. Location and marking of Indian positions relevant to these areas
3. Reinforcement of mortar and artillery along these areas and ensuring adequate stocks for 7 days of shelling
4. Coordination with LeT to select 500 of the most dedicated Fidayeen, to be split into groups of 30 and transported to 17 locations where LoC fencing is to be breached
5. Arms and supplies, comm sets, NVGs for Fidayeen provided to LeT ,
6. Identification of suitable Pakistani village near LoC which can be shelled from a direction that makes it appear like shells are from India. Indian munitions to be used.
7. Identification of crowded spot at which Pakistani civilians will be beheaded by commandos in Indian army uniform.
8. Soldiers in civilian clothes to act as "witnesses" of killing, to be recorded on cellphones and security camera
9. Readying of Nasr missiles with tactical nuclear warheads under Lt Gen Pakhan's command
10. Information fed to Chinese Intel that India is planning an attack, requesting further info if they have any."
This is because Lt. Gen Pakhan can specify taking all these measures in advance of his Action, which is:
Direct Action (DA) day minus 1: Pakistani village attacked, 6 people beheaded by "Indian" soldiers and videos recorded. 4 hours of intense shelling to destroy houses and mosque. ISPR and TV channels including BBC and CNN given footage. 18 hours before "retaliation".
All the steps 1-10 are preparatory to the Action itself, so we can include them in the Matrix since Shiv has specified them. Fair enough.
Now the Intended Result. Shiv has said the Intended Result of Gen. Pakhan's action is:
"To set the stage for the next step to be undertaken 18 hours later"
This can be rephrased as the following three (correct me if I am wrong Shiv)
1) MILITARY PREPARATION for FUTURE MOVES: Preparatory positioning of X Corps elements across 17 LOC locations selected for breaching. Provision of said elements with mortar and artillery reinforcement and stocks for 7 days of shelling. Positioning of 30 groups of LeT fidayeen at each of the 17 locations, in preparation for infiltration. Provision of equipment such as NVGs, arms, comm sets to the fidayeen groups. Readying of Nasr missiles with TNWs.
2) MILITARY ASSAULT on UNDEFENDED TARGET in one's OWN TERRITORY: Targeting of a selected village on Pakistan side of LOC with the following: attack by Border Action Teams elements wearing Indian commando uniforms, beheading of 6 inhabitants by these elements in a public area, video recording of the beheading by cell phone cameras, followed by shelling the village with Indian munitions and from a direction that appears to come from India.
3) DISINFORMATION WARFARE: Information about impending Indian attack, and request for further information, conveyed to PLA. Cell phone videos of beheading are sent to ISPR, CNN, and BBC.
All these three goals are part of "setting the stage", which Shiv has cited as his Intended Result. Therefore we must weigh the PROs and CONs separately around each of these goals.
Goal 1) PREPARATION FOR FUTURE MOVES
PRO: All the actions described fall within the purview and capacity of the Pakistan Army and are approved for Lt. Gen. Pakhan to take. Weight +1
CON: (Paraphrased, based on RIEN's input) When news (or even rumors) of Pakhan's forces shelling/beheading in a Pakistani village get out within Pakistan itself... and they very well might given RAW presence and/or the large numbers of PA and LeT personnel involved in this op... the results may include protests, will be counterproductive for future moves, and hence diminish the effectiveness of preparation.
This is based on Rien's following CONS which I have rolled into one as described above.
Con: We have radio surveillance and listen for chatter. Multiple jehadis/soldiers means more chance of a slipup.
500 troops are involved. Chance of leakage is proportional to no of troops involved. 500 should mean roll is loaded
in my favour.
Con: RAW has informers in Pakistan. Multiple soldiers/jehadis are involved in the generals action. Therefore, 100% chance of leakage to a RAW informant. 2 people can keep a secret if 1 of them are dead.
Con: Local villagers have suffered from shelling in the past. They have taken action against PA in the past.
Con: Chaotic situation with Pakistani government distracted by protests.http://www.ryot.org/pakistani-protester
Con: Army will be called on to deal with protesters.
However, I make the ruling as Umpire that the possibility of leaks, plus the actual protests if any occur, would not be large enough IN TIME to significantly impact the results of the move described in THIS action. So while most CONs are weighted -2, I will weight this CON as -1.
Target Roll: 10 + 1 -1= 10 or less on 3d6. Actual Roll: 10.
The process of positioning the PA units and is a little hurried and slipshod, largely because of the slack response of the logistics corps which are badly trained/out of practice in conducting an operation of this size. However, in general the preparatory goals are more or less accomplished. LeT is by far the most competent element involved in the preparatory phase: one gets the feeling they've been waiting, and drilling, for something like this for a long time.
Anyway, at the end of this move your forces are positioned across from 17 locations on the LOC which, to the best of your knowledge, are suitable for breaching and infiltration following sustained artillery barrage. Teams of 25-30 Fidayeen are in place at each location. Every team has at least one comm set and between 8-15 functioning NVGs, plus small arms and ammunition; also water and packets of dried fruits sufficient to survive in wilderness for up to 3 days.
The 17 positions are fortified with elements of X Corps' Independent Artillery Brigade (48 105- and 155-mm guns divided to cover 17 LOC positions with interlacing fields of fire wherever possible) plus mortar teams from X Corps' infantry divisions.
The only sketchy factor from the PA side has been the transfer of Nasr missiles with TNW to Gen. Pakhan's command. The missile batteries are available, but Raheel Shareef and SFC-in-charge Gen Obaidullah Khattak are not comfortable giving over the arming and launch codes at this time.
There are all kinds of rumors circulating in the nearby towns and villages, but as yet the shock and building anger have overpowered any urge among the people to protest against Islamabad or disrupt law and order. Compliance is the way things are going, for now anyway.
Goal 2) MILITARY ASSAULT on UNDEFENDED TARGET in one's OWN TERRITORY.
PRO: There is no military opposition: nothing to stop Gen Pakhan's forces from conducting the beheading and video recording it, or from shelling the village. "No one can stop it, we are killing our own".
PRO: Total advantage of initiative/element of surprise." We make the first move and hold the initiative with our version".
CON: None. There is nothing to stop this military assault from succeeding except random chance (black swan event).
Target Roll: 10 + 2 = 12 or less on 3d6.
Actual Roll: 5.
The village is attacked by a squad of "Indian commandos" at 0600 hours. Several inhabitants are killed in the assault but about a dozen are allowed to flee with bullet or grenade injuries. Others are rounded up and taken to the market square. At least 50 locals witness the family of 6 being beheaded in the market square at 0715. Cell phone video recordings are taken of the beheading, and the speech by one Indian commando who swears in the name of Modi that Akhand Bharat will be restored, Muslims will be killed wherever they are, let this be a warning etc.
The commandos withdraw by 0800 and the shelling begins from X Corps IAB positions north and south of the village. It continues for the next three hours. No dwellings, people or animals survive.
GOAL 3: DISINFORMATION WAR
PRO: No one will believe that we would kill our own especially when we have video footage of men in Indian army uniforms.
PRO: Indians (and others) may suspect a conspiracy, but tthey will get no time to do anything as we move on to the next step.
And some CONs by Rien and Aditya Dange. These, too, I will paraphrase and modify without giving individual credit:
CON: India will collect UAV evidence regarding the beheading/commando assault.
CON: Indian WLRs will track and establish the origin of the Pakistani shells.
CON: Between the large number of TSPA/LeT personnel involved, the large number of witnesses, and the presence of RAW agents in the region... it is possible that more evidence will be collected (cell phone photos, videos, intercepted transmissions) that will inhibit the capacity of Pakistan to use the incident in a disinformation war.
CON (by me): Nobody trusts the Pakistanis. Seriously. At the time of Chittisinghpora the whole "Indian Army Uniform" gambit may have worked but by now nobody is going to take such a report at face value and start publishing it without lots of verification. Which is not going to happen in the next 18 hours, therefore it will not be of any help to Gen Pakhan's disinformation war attempt.(NOTE: Aditya Dange's and Rien's points about FLIRs, Intensified Patrolling, Detection of preparatory PA troop movements, surveillance, etc. are all VERY VALID, YET they cannot possibly affect Shiv's goal of starting a disinformation war in THIS move. They can only be of value to the Indians when making THEIR subsequent move... not immediately affecting the success or failure of Shiv's attempt to start spreading FUD. They can be used as PRO arguments by Rien when he makes a move as MOD of India, to argue that he is likely to have received quick and relatively accurate reports about the PA action... but they cannot be used in the PROCON evaluation for THIS move).
Target Roll: 10 + 2 - 8 = 4 or less on 3d6. Actual Roll: 11.
At least in the short term, there is no widespread international condemnation of India (or in fact, anyone else except faceless "terrorist groups"/"extremist elements") for the attack on the village. News reports are conflicting and confused. The Urdu Press takes up the preferred line, calling it an "Indian Attack" in the afternoon papers. The English press is baffled and makes an on-camera circus out of waiting tensely by the phone for imminently-expected "latest official updates" throughout the evening. The buzz is that the Indians did it, but in the cities and towns of Pakistan it still has not risen to the sort of mass outrage that (for example) India experienced following 26/11.
ISPR gives its comments dutifully to BBC and CNN saying "we are still investigating but we believe it to be an Indian military aggression and we will retaliate if that is the case". The cell phone video of beheading is also sent to BBC, CNN, New York Times, Washington Post, Al Jazeera etc. but most of these outlets sit on it without broadcasting it, claiming a need for "further verification."
Only in India, The Hindu writes a "Truth Must Be Found" editorial, and NDTV invites a few kurta-clad guests on the evening shows to ask the "brave questions"... is Modi a Mad Dog, Are We Now Like Pakistan, Is RSS = LeT, etc. But on the whole there is only skepticism. Social Media is where you are getting the only decent traction for your version of the story... ISIS guys are forwarding the beheading video to each other and making snide tweets about the Kaffir's effeminate machete technique.
The phones are ringing off the hook in the MOD and PMO with requests to comment on what happened, from both the Indian and the International press.
FINAL RESULT: Two of the three INTENDED RESULTS of Shiv's second MOVE were achieved. The third one failed. Thus Shiv has lost the initiative and has to give up his conch to the next player.
Rien, as MOD of India... it's your turn now.