IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

nirav · Post by **nirav** » 17 Feb 2016 20:40

Gyan wrote:He said "aircraft" which may not mean additional types of fighter jets, can be civilian transport aircraft also.

Confuse ho rahe ho ya kar rahe ho

India is likely to select by the year-end at least one fighter aircraft that will be manufactured by the private sector under the 'Make in India' process for supply to IAF, Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar has said.

Read more at:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/art ... aign=cppst

Bharadwaj · Post by **Bharadwaj** » 17 Feb 2016 20:47

Tejas,Fgfa,rafale,Make in India*2..... Amca ..... confusing indeed

Bharadwaj · Post by **Bharadwaj** » 17 Feb 2016 20:53

I hope GOI extracts maximum pound of flesh for this new deal including unrestricted technological input for AMCA....

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 17 Feb 2016 21:22

So should wee now have a make in India fighter thread

This explains all the noise and visits from various folks too various places such as fadnavis bhau in linkopen. So what is this second 4.5gen fighter line all about? Listing by priority...
1. Meet Namos goal of becoming manufacturing hub for hi end tech.
2. Boost jobs and aerospace sector
3. Hopefully, enter fighter export market by cheaply producing high quality affordable fighters...currently only Russians can somewhat match these often opposing goals
4. Meet IAF numbers need...HAT TIP to Viv for reminding us that Raha was not joking about other fighters
5. Probably meet navy's needed for next gen. fighter, hence all the noise about sea gripen
6. Take the next step in the relationship with the US as Rao sahib has been suggesting....

Imho, this is surely for the shornet to come in...Euro fighter is unlikely thanks to lack of naval variant. Ditto with Saab.

One would have thought that the rafale would meet all above criteria, but the French are as usual, terribly expensive...only yanks or Swedes can meet cost limitation.

Jmtp

member_29294 · Post by **member_29294** » 17 Feb 2016 22:53

He said that there may be one or two more jet fighter plants, either operational or in the process of being set up, in India in the next three years or so.

Asked if this meant HAL will set up more plants, Parrikar said, It is private sector which will be required to supply to the air force. We need fighters. We may encourage...there are proposals." Parrikar said yesterday through "proper process", by year end "we might select few aircraft to Make in India. Which one? I don't commit. But there will be at least one, may be two also."

So it seems we have a few different options here:

1. 36+MII Rafale + MII Tejas for IN and IAF

2. 36 Rafale (IAF only) + MII F-18SH + MII Tejas for IN and IAF

3. 36 Rafale (IAF only) + MII F-18SH + MII Gripen for IN and IAF

Russian MiG-35, F-16, and Eurofigther can be completely disregarded at this stage, for a number of reasons. PakFA won't be able to come in time, Super 30s can't fit the desired role, and neither of them can fit the IN's needs for +2-3 squads for new ACs.

Option 1 would probably be the most preferable for logistics and supply chain concerns. However, the French are the most difficult to work with, most expensive, and reluctant about MII.

Option 2 would mean getting a strong partner that will be fully committed to MII and move their ENTIRE supply chain (Yes, not a screwdriver ToT but the entire line from US->India), while giving IAF their 2 squads of Rafale + option for 1 more.

Option 3 is similar to the one above, but includes Saab Gripen shelving the Tejas which has evidently little support from IAF. Their talks about an 'AC capable Gripen' are a direct result of them trying to muscle out NLCA for the IN. The plot thickens because not only will they move their entire line to India, but will probably sell their entire aerospace division to an Indian company.

I know everyone here likes to think in terms of foreign vs indigenous, but the MoD's thinking is more concerned with trying to setup a private aerospace manufacturing hub and move away from the ineffective DPSU mentality of the past. This will put India in line with US, Russia, Chine, etc. who have a number of companies making fighter jets rather than some bloated PSU. MoD is dreaming of a distant future, +2 decades from now, when a tender for fighter aircraft are put out and multiple private Indian companies respond with competing offers, like how it is done in America. The fastest, and arguably only, way for this to happen is with JV and tie ups with experienced foreign players right now.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 17 Feb 2016 22:57

Yup, sounds great GOI
36 Rafale +36 F-18+36 EF

Hopefully all this is to put pressure on Dassault

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 17 Feb 2016 23:55

The only option is massive + expensive confusion.

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 18 Feb 2016 00:05

As I've said before, this is probably all just a pressure tactic. It doesn't make sense to open another line or two.

This is the only equation that works:

LCA MKIa/II - Light

Rafale(Air and Naval)/AMCA - Medium

Su-30MKI - Heavy

member_28990 · Post by **member_28990** » 18 Feb 2016 03:00

is it time to rename this the MRCA thread again

I will say this - the way things are panning out, in my opinion the only way we see mass induction of LCA is if we ditch the Rafale and go en masse for SHORNET (MII or whatever). Nothing else is making sense.

(unless of course the RM is talking about setting up private lines for the Tejas)

srai · Post by **srai** » 18 Feb 2016 03:21

Karan M wrote:Yup, sounds great GOI
36 Rafale +36 F-18+36 EF

Hopefully all this is to put pressure on Dassault

Sounds like stalling tactics to me. The price per unit for a MRCA (of any variety) is hard to swallow. For a country like India, $10 billion for just 36 aircraft (2 squadrons) is ludicrous. It doesn't address anything other than suck up most of the capital spending budget for years.

Longer this MRCA deal is held at bay, secondary options would be forced to become viable, such as orders for more LCA and Su-30 MKI. For that same amount of money, India can get all its planned 6 squadrons (and possibly more) from a combination of more LCA and Su-30 MKI squadrons.

Khalsa · Post by **Khalsa** » 18 Feb 2016 04:37

If this is indeed a scare tactic for the French, shows just how well our discussion committees are doing against the french discussion committees.

If not then God help us... License Production are nothing but warm fuzzy blankets that make you believe that you can produce an aircraft from scratch.
No you can't.

What will help us is continuing Tejas up till Mark 1a or 1b or 2 ...
and starting work on the AMCA from scratch.

We need to learn our to make our screwdriver to screw ourselves otherwise the whole world will continue to screw us.
Off the shelf purchase of the Rafael is the way to go and be done with it.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 18 Feb 2016 07:44

srai wrote:
Karan M wrote:Yup, sounds great GOI
36 Rafale +36 F-18+36 EF

Hopefully all this is to put pressure on Dassault

Sounds like stalling tactics to me. The price per unit for a MRCA (of any variety) is hard to swallow. For a country like India, $10 billion for just 36 aircraft (2 squadrons) is ludicrous. It doesn't address anything other than suck up most of the capital spending budget for years.

Longer this MRCA deal is held at bay, secondary options would be forced to become viable, such as orders for more LCA and Su-30 MKI. For that same amount of money, India can get all its planned 6 squadrons (and possibly more) from a combination of more LCA and Su-30 MKI squadrons.

One hopes but one doubts....these comments don't seem to be the posturing kind, plus there have been too many talks and dignitaries visiting here and there for it to be mere stalling I'm afraid.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 18 Feb 2016 08:09

Folks chill please.

Private sector making fighters is not going to come soon. Forget money - which may well be available. We will require land because planes cannot be made without an airstrip. That is itself going to take a while. There may be old unused airstrips from WW2 that GoI/MoD may be willing to lease/sell to a pvt concern, but that apart a small city will have to be built and manned with skilled labour. Where such a facility goes will depend a lot of state governments - I am simply guessing Maharashtra, Andhra or Tamil Nadu as possibilities. Rajasthan/Gujarat? Don't know. Other possibilities are 2-3 plants for components - all shipped out for assembly and testing at a pre-existing airfield facility such as Hosur.

I do not foresee an pvt industry manufactured fighter taking off for a decade at the very least. There is a huge difference between the intent (which I welcome) and the actual production which is easier said than done

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 18 Feb 2016 09:31

I see SAAB and the Gripen as the most likely foreign fighter to be made in India .The F-16s are used by Pak and F-18s similarly belong to a past generation,no future.That would also rule out the MIG-35 in IAF thinking,even though its a very good cost-effective solution for numbers.This extra aircraft is meant to accompany the Rafale on multi-role duties as the raffy is just too expensive.Remember the words,room for another "another Rafale type fighter" used earlier. The Gripen would also be insurance against the LCA from not reaching its maturity as we want. I said many years ago that it would be ironic if we eventually produced another HF-24,with 120 or so aircraft only.That prospect looms nearer with this news.

Costwise,the max no. of Raffys that we can afford is perhaps 3 sqds. With 40-50 M2Ks and 60+ upgraded MIG-29s,it would give us around 8 sqds of highly capable twin-engine med. sized fighters. So what is really required are cost-effective replacements for the 200+ MIG-21s and 100 MIG-27s.The oroder for 100 + LCA MK-1s still leave a hole for around 150-200 aircraft.That's where the new extra fighter steps in.FGFAs and extra MKIs/270+ upgraded MKIs belong to the heavyweight division.

habal · Post by **habal** » 18 Feb 2016 10:02

the idea here seems to be to get as many global vendors to manufacture as many medium combat a/c as soon as possible. And not one vendor dragging out for 2 decades. there is no time for such nonchalance.

member_29245 · Post by **member_29245** » 18 Feb 2016 12:25

srai wrote:
Karan M wrote:Yup, sounds great GOI
36 Rafale +36 F-18+36 EF

Hopefully all this is to put pressure on Dassault

Sounds like stalling tactics to me. The price per unit for a MRCA (of any variety) is hard to swallow. For a country like India, $10 billion for just 36 aircraft (2 squadrons) is ludicrous. It doesn't address anything other than suck up most of the capital spending budget for years.

Longer this MRCA deal is held at bay, secondary options would be forced to become viable, such as orders for more LCA and Su-30 MKI. For that same amount of money, India can get all its planned 6 squadrons (and possibly more) from a combination of more LCA and Su-30 MKI squadrons.

Agreed seems more like it

This is one big ****** situation

Look when modi ditched mmrca and announced direct purchase

We got time and came up with 106 lca mk1a and at least 40 more su30mki

With one more year we will come up with other options as economic realities and oems demads implications set in

member_29245 · Post by **member_29245** » 18 Feb 2016 12:31

The only solution is to step on the gas on tejas incremental development / paralelly and amca

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 18 Feb 2016 12:46

The quickest they can manufacture by end of this year in a Pvt Company would be Tejas and Rafale.

Any new aircraft chosen with TOT , local manuf etc would take another 10 years to negotiate by MOD

Looks like people in MOD dont have better work to do then to endlessly negotiate with Foreign OEM that gives them work for 10 years hopefully

Not sure why they even want to look beyond Tejas , Rafale and MKI when it comes to local manufacturing , All are very capable to defend Indian skies for next 30 years with suitable upgrades.

member_20453 · Post by **member_20453** » 18 Feb 2016 13:20

Austin wrote:The quickest they can manufacture by end of this year in a Pvt Company would be Tejas and Rafale.

Any new aircraft chosen with TOT , local manuf etc would take another 10 years to negotiate by MOD

Looks like people in MOD dont have better work to do then to endlessly negotiate with Foreign OEM that gives them work for 10 years hopefully

Not sure why they even want to look beyond Tejas , Rafale and MKI when it comes to local manufacturing , All are very capable to defend Indian skies for next 30 years with suitable upgrades.

Tejas yes, Rafale, nah, Dassault is too busy screwing this deal. As for neotiations of other aircraft, it appears they are already chit chatting with others since last year. Being a Raffy fan boy clouds your judgement, it is not worth it at the prices being quoted. Let's not even go into the costs of Rafale's suitable upgrades

Hopefully they cancel the Rafale deal.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 18 Feb 2016 13:43

The complexity of TOT , LIC production is so vast that they would take many years to negotiate and no Vendor has even claimed negotiating with MOD neither MOD said so from offical statement , Even the Rafale negotiation took many years .......so the only aircraft that they can think of producting locally is Rafale .... the other is Tejas , lets see what surprise awaits us.

kvraghav · Post by **kvraghav** » 18 Feb 2016 15:48

Seems like Raksha Mantri Ji has a lot of things running on his mind and every time someone stops him and asks question, he just says everything that's on his mind. I will just wait till he signs on the dotted line. Rest everything is his own random thoughts is what I feel.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 19 Feb 2016 11:14

No Rafale deal unless price is right: Parrikar

By Ajai Shukla

Business Standard, 19th Feb 16

Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar bluntly stated on Thursday that negotiations for buying 36 Rafale fighters from French aerospace vendor, Dassault, were deadlocked on the issue of price, and that no deal would be signed until the price was right.

Well-informed defence ministry sources that are close to the negotiation say there is a wide gulf between the two sides. “The difference between what France is demanding and what India is willing to pay is too large to bridge easily --- about 25 per cent.”

Business Standard understands that Dassault has quoted about Euro 12 billion (Rs 91,548 crore), while Indian negotiators are refusing to go above Euro 9 billion (Rs 68,499 crore).

Parrikar told India Today TV: “Price is the problem which has to be resolved. Unless I get the right price, I cannot sign.”

Debunking recent media articles that a deal was imminent, most recently in Hindustan Times on February 11, Parrikar said ironing out the remaining issues would take “a few months”.

Pressed on the question of time-frame, Parrikar responded: “You can’t commit yourself to a time, because this is not a negotiation for a few hundred crores. This is thousands of crores. I should not… put a time line on my price negotiation.”

On January 25, during his visit to Delhi, French President Francois Hollande declared after signing an inter-governmental agreement for the supply of 36 Rafales, “There are some financial issues that will be sorted out in a couple of days…” It now appears he may have been speaking figuratively.

On January 27, French ambassador to New Delhi, Francois Richier, put a deadline of four months for the price to be negotiated.

Today, Parrikar also confirmed that India had demanded offsets worth 50 per cent of the deal value, and that Dassault had agreed to that condition.

“We have resolved all the other issues. There were terms of guarantees, there were terms of supply, there were terms of how it will be done”, said Parrikar.

The defence minister denied that the window was open for buying more Rafale fighters, beyond the 36 being currently negotiated. “As of now, the negotiation is for 36 (fighters). There are many possibilities, but this deal is for 36”, he said.

When Prime Minister Narendra Modi, on a visit to Paris last April, requested for 36 Rafales, New Delhi and had Paris agreed the price would be less than what Dassault had quoted in response to the Indian tender of 2007 for 126 medium multi-role combat aircraft (MMRCA). Of those 126 fighters, the first 18 were to be supplied in “flyaway condition”, i.e. fully built. Since 36 Rafales are now being bought in “flyaway condition”, their per-piece price must be lower than what Dassault quoted for those 18 fighters.

The Indian Air Force had chosen the Rafale on January 31, 2012, in India’s tender for 126 MMRCA aircraft. However, in protracted price negotiations that followed, the defence ministry found problems in Dassault’s financial bid. Eventually, Modi chose to abandon the MMRCA tender, and instead buy 36 Rafales over-the-counter.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 19 Feb 2016 11:17

Septimus looks like Dassault is ideal vendor for MMRCA.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 19 Feb 2016 11:23

Like I've mentioned before, neither the MoD nor the IAF is too pleased with the deal in its current form at its current price point. If not for the involvement of the PMO, they'd have canned it long ago. Now with the high profile media events out of the way, the political aspects have lost some of their steam.

And while kudos to the Raksha Mantri are in order, for his hard-headed negotiating attitude, the price we're 'willing' to pay is still shockingly high - €9 billion ($10 billion). [Indian negotiators are refusing to go above Euro 9 billion (Rs 68,499 crore)].

member_29245 · Post by **member_29245** » 19 Feb 2016 12:24

There were reports earlier of India asking for 6-7 billion and dasault for 12

Split the difference at 8-9

India has done that

Dasault not willing

This I
Price of 9 billions is ridiculous

member_29245 · Post by **member_29245** » 19 Feb 2016 12:28

Looks like the only way forward is

Lca + su30mki + amca + pakfa + fgfa + su39mki upgrade to super su 30 standard

member_29245 · Post by **member_29245** » 19 Feb 2016 12:28

Looks like the only way forward is

Lca + su30mki + amca + pakfa + fgfa + su39mki upgrade to super su 30 standard

kvraghav · Post by **kvraghav** » 19 Feb 2016 13:05

When dessault was chosen as L1, I knew that the actual price will be very high. The French cannot compete with the US on price and the only way they could have quoted very low price was with the hope of increasing it in the CNC. Unlucky for them, there is a regime change.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 19 Feb 2016 13:10

Ther are only 3 countries that can deliver the goods. Russia,the US and Sweden.
Ru both xtra upgraded MKIs and MIG-35s,the US with the SHornet and Sweden with the Gripen.Prices will also be competitive. The EF is as expensive as the Raffy and unless they match what the GOI is willing to pay ,it will be hi and bye.So let's watch series 2 in the MMRCA ever popular horror story! Will this series last ss long as the AJT where the Hawk finally flew in after 20 years?

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 19 Feb 2016 13:20

Looks more like Posturing by MOD , If it helps in negotiation to reduce the price then its good for them

Parrikar has said so many things so many times last time he mentioned the Plan B was more Sukhoi if Rafale gets cancelled

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 19 Feb 2016 15:06

Austin wrote:Looks more like Posturing by MOD , If it helps in negotiation to reduce the price then its good for them

Parrikar has said so many things so many times last time he mentioned the Plan B was more Sukhoi if Rafale gets cancelled

Question is, what if it doesn't help in negotiation? Will the MoD fold i.e. admit they were bluffing, or are they willing to walk away?

The most pertinent revelation in that article (aside from the huge gulf between what they're demanding and what we're willing to pay), is the Raksha Mantri's prediction that it would still take “a few months” to sort the issues out. The cost negotiation is still devoid of any timeline ("I should not… put a time line on my price negotiation".). The lack of even lip service towards urgency doesn't bode well for the acquisition.

Vipul · Post by **Vipul** » 19 Feb 2016 16:20

It will be a blessing in disguise if the deal now breaks down over the price. I hope UAE places large order for the Rafale and the French get adamant and refuse to do a frenchie.

If India then negotiates for the American Teens or Gripen or god forbid MIG35 our condition for new contract should be immediate delivery of a couple of squadrons worth of older airframes and return them as the new ones are delivered.

member_20453 · Post by **member_20453** » 19 Feb 2016 18:47

Austin wrote:The complexity of TOT , LIC production is so vast that they would take many years to negotiate and no Vendor has even claimed negotiating with MOD neither MOD said so from offical statement , Even the Rafale negotiation took many years .......so the only aircraft that they can think of producting locally is Rafale .... the other is Tejas , lets see what surprise awaits us.

Negotiating with Dassault can easily take 5-10 years, the rest have a much lower median time. Rafale isn't the only one 'they' can think of to produce locally, from PAKFA/SH/Gripen, options exist. Time to cancel the deal and look elsewhere while increasing of fresh MKI orders from 40-60 till the next aircraft arrives. TOT isn't a biggy, even if Rafale is 'made in India' it won't come with any significant TOT, it will merely be assemble in India with some screw driver tech. Consdering a similar set-up for others, it will be much faster to negotiate with the rest.

Gyan · Post by **Gyan** » 19 Feb 2016 20:06

I think that Euro 12 Billion is too less. We should round it off to USD 20 Billion and get it over with once and for all. Karan Thapar asked no other relevant question except Rafale import, I wonder how much Dassault spent? Will it be considered in offset? How hard HAL is trying to delay LCA? Will they get points for excellent effort?

Sid · Post by **Sid** » 19 Feb 2016 20:58

In my opinion DM Parrikar has always been against this deal, mainly due its exuberant cost. French came to some sense once he cancelled the MMRCA process. Maybe Modi folded, maybe not. But when decision came back to him, he is still sticking to his earlier argument... Cost+liability. Liability issue is not resolved, cost part is still stuck.

~10 Bil is still an exuberant cost for 36 fighters, from Indian perspective. IAF has a long checklist of items to purchase, same as IA/IN and Parrikar us left to scrape the bottom after OROP went into effect. A 10 or 20 bil deal will be a burden on current and next generation.

P.S. I shudder to think we had Mulayam as DM once upon a time.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 19 Feb 2016 22:39

Viv S wrote:The most pertinent revelation in that article (aside from the huge gulf between what they're demanding and what we're willing to pay), is the Raksha Mantri's prediction that it would still take “a few months” to sort the issues out. The cost negotiation is still devoid of any timeline ("I should not… put a time line on my price negotiation".). The lack of even lip service towards urgency doesn't bode well for the acquisition.

No one really puts time line for negotiation why should they any ways , considering MMRCA did not have any time line to start with

Any way he says a lot of think if Rafale deal fails Plan B is to acquire more MKI , then he says 1 or 2 fighter to be made by PVT companies by end of the year ,in next few months he might say 2-3 may be made and Rafale would take few more months

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 19 Feb 2016 22:56

Austin wrote:No one really puts time line for negotiation why should they any ways , considering MMRCA did not have any time line to start with

If you want to use interviews with the press as a pressure tactic for negotiations, it makes much more sense to hint at failing patience rather than an inevitable accommodation.

Any way he says a lot of think if Rafale deal fails Plan B is to acquire more MKI , then he says 1 or 2 fighter to be made by PVT companies by end of the year ,in next few months he might say 2-3 may be made and Rafale would take few more months

He's obviously considering the various alternative options available. However, the one thing he's suprisingly refused to do, in most recent interactions, is explore the prospect of follow-on Rafale orders (or a local assembly line). Even though that possibility would have helped negotiate a lower price for the current batch of Rafales. For whatever reason, he's clearly not happy about the Rafale purchase.

And as I've pointed out before, he's not the only one contemplating alternatives - curiously the IAF chief has been doing it too.

member_28990 · Post by **member_28990** » 19 Feb 2016 23:53

Rafale deal is a ticking time bomb politically. No win situation for signing it - gov. will feel too much money down the drain, IAF will say too few machines, CAG + Press will cry scam.

MMRCA will be SHornet, especially if uncle promises some aggressive deliveries.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 19 Feb 2016 23:54

Austin wrote:
Viv S wrote:The most pertinent revelation in that article (aside from the huge gulf between what they're demanding and what we're willing to pay), is the Raksha Mantri's prediction that it would still take “a few months” to sort the issues out. The cost negotiation is still devoid of any timeline ("I should not… put a time line on my price negotiation".). The lack of even lip service towards urgency doesn't bode well for the acquisition.
No one really puts time line for negotiation why should they any ways , considering MMRCA did not have any time line to start with

Any way he says a lot of think if Rafale deal fails Plan B is to acquire more MKI , then he says 1 or 2 fighter to be made by PVT companies by end of the year ,in next few months he might say 2-3 may be made and Rafale would take few more months

I'd rather he says that then say "Rafale is onlee option"..

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 20 Feb 2016 00:09

I would say that right now, the company with the most credibility with MOD and IAF/IN is Boeing. They have delivered on the C17 and the P8, on time (before time?) and the IAF and IN are happy with both aircraft. The F18 could be the dark horse that wins the race? Lockheed have also delivered on the C130, but their offering, the F16 is tainted with the PAF also using it.