IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Postby Bhaskar_T » 17 Apr 2016 12:21

Tell me that such expensive (and one of the greatest - don't debate on this - IAF has done a detailed study for about 2 years based on 750 parameters) fighters making up 2 squadrons will be based in NE against China. None in BRF has remotely attempted/done any lungi dance since many months/years on this Rafale thing. Probably, confirmation of putting these assets in NE will make me do bit of Lungi Dance.

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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Postby member_28880 » 17 Apr 2016 12:24

sohels wrote:Stuff I stumbled upon on other forums:

long day.. just reached home.. but straight to the PC to type good news...
Deal is done.. final papers exchanged..
its officially 36 flyaway
90 make in India tranche 1
Final numbers would be 300 Rafales with 100+ Rafale Ms
The original 36+18 follow on.. The follow on will be later exercised for Rafale M for Indian Navy..
Expect deal announcement soon..
The 18s was pitted very aggressively but a question was asked what besides the jet and cooperation on other projects, the answer was inconclusive.
The deal papers were exchanged in the meeting of March 29,2016.
Bankers are confirmed...
The first 36 flyaway, last batch jets will see a small job work in Indian facilities
Details of the deal and actual contours wont be released in public except limited information.
LnT is getting something very very big from French side as a part of the deal..Will straight forward go to an interesting project where 2 specific products with nuclear propulsion will simultaneously get constructed for 2 very different strategic roles.
Officially certain news will be out soon..but before that expect a flurry of anti Rafale media reports
Big folks expected soon to sign...dates will be announced soon..

Source: http://defence.pk/threads/dassault-rafa ... z4641K5Yjq


Does any of this make sense / seem credible?


This was PARIKRAMA, quiet active in PDF, DFI and IDF but never seen here. good and a very eloquent guy, has won recently first Indian poster of the year in PDF. He claimed to be an ex banker/risk analyzer, his firm was a French conglomerate, strong arbitrator of an Indo-French friendship. He said to have sources in finance ministry, RBI and others in Delhi. According to him he got all the information regarding any France related deal from people, whom he met on his personal capacity. I am not sure how he is accurate on above info but in past most of his leaks (like NAMO France visit n saga of 36, IGA ,Price issue) have spotted on. He broke the above news 2 days before, all of our MSM got the "Rafael jet finalized at 7.8 bn euro" news. He also made it clear that "French demanding 11bn euro but Indian side want it down to 7bn euro" much before parikar said " I am a hard bargainer".

There are many French Pros in above mentioned forum, who are some how(mostly 3rd party consultation on financial issue) related to Dassault or Thales, always make rumor of a no of information and many times surprisingly, they got it perfect. According to them 200-300 Raffy is a done deal. 36 in flyaway mode and most of the rest in MII program as per new DPP( Though I am always highly negative on this)

For all above reasons,I was wondering, why the heck the Czars over here always remain busy in analyzing the awkward Kanard's formulae of 1 Rafael=X no of MKI and people r breaking news over news everywhere else.
Last edited by member_28880 on 17 Apr 2016 14:28, edited 1 time in total.

Viv S
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Postby Viv S » 17 Apr 2016 12:37

Its a pity his statement/disclosure/leak doesn't happen to mention how much these 90 Rafales are going to cost the Indian exchequer.

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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Postby member_28880 » 17 Apr 2016 13:01

^^^ May be a lot, but most of the Indian exchequer are brainwashed now, where ever they see a firangi maal, they think they have invested wisely. May be they will forget LCAs or AMCAs when they goanna watch the fly past of French beauty over Rajpath. let keep aside mango people, who goanna tame the rich spoiled brat "IAF and the babus". Even GOD made their work easier by giving two ultra friendly neighbor on both of our side.

I heard once from the mouth of MoS finance "Agar apko sena, surakha aur bikas chahiye to tax varna padega":
jus like a local DON :rotfl:
So basically it's a hard truth.

But I am a bit assured, bcoz NAMO n Parikar is der, they will try to save up to the last penny, unlike the garib madamji and uski phatichar damadji.
Last edited by member_28880 on 17 Apr 2016 14:28, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Postby NRao » 17 Apr 2016 14:02

If true this could explain some of the reasoning behind the Carter-Parrikar meet. Perhaps India can rethink her posture and not even have to sign anything for the time being.

Interesting that they mention the Rafale M. That would impact the carrier, which could impact the DTTI effort. I think the collaboration with the US will slowly wind down.

BTW, Kuwait signed for 28 Eurofighters, for a little over $8 billion. Supposed to replace their older F-18s.

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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Postby Cain Marko » 17 Apr 2016 14:03

Well...ultimately IF the second line is on, and the funds can be found...esp if funds are to be paid over the entire production period in kishta, it makes sense to go with rafale as the best choice...It was the IN preference too iirc and cns arun prakash had evaluated it himself.

But we are looking at 50-75 billion usd over twenty years. I suppose affordable for a fast growing economy.

Strategically most independent of all other choices. And hopefully some inputs on AMCA plus SSNs.

Damn...why couldn't they have just gone for a twin engined LCA MK3 by 2025...ala mirage 4000?? The interim shortfall could be managed in so many different, inexpensive ways

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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Postby member_23694 » 17 Apr 2016 14:15

JMT :

Officially certain news will be out soon..


Something like
http://indianexpress.com/article/india/ ... dis-visit/

An MoU was signed between Larsen and Tubro and AREVA aimed at cost reduction by increasing localisation, to improve the financial viability of the Jaitapur project.
The agreement will also enable transfer of technology and development of indigenous nuclear energy industry in India.


Then hopefully there will be no/limited movement in Jaitapur and Project 75I. Probably less number of reactors in Jaitapur.
Money saved from these two prg. Scorpene order increase from 6 to 9.

Quick progress in SSN and SSBN program cleared as part of
http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/indi ... 25929.html
with new technology infusion and a few other programs

westinghouse gets 6 reactors and USA gets couple of agreements like LEMOA / P 8, C 130 etc
Last edited by member_23694 on 17 Apr 2016 14:22, edited 1 time in total.

member_22019
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Postby member_22019 » 17 Apr 2016 14:17

Modi and Parrikar are not fools. They must be knowing what they are doing. If 40-50 billion can deter our enemies, it is still not expansive.

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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Postby NRao » 17 Apr 2016 14:24

Cannot see a reduction in number of reactors. Economy is a bigger priority. In fact, I would think, India would get a far better deal from France on other projects for saving Dassault. India would be the largest operator of Rafale, and would continue to operate them long after the French have retired theirs.

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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Postby SaiK » 17 Apr 2016 14:24

Image
@livefist
This was 1 Feb 2012. #JustSaying pic.twitter.com/Bs2HnGwLVg

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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Postby Cain Marko » 17 Apr 2016 14:32

Well, they doo say that India prefers a multi polar world what with NAM and all that....sure hope they get some stocks of the meteor as a silver bullet if raffles goes through

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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Postby member_28880 » 17 Apr 2016 14:57


ldev
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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Postby ldev » 17 Apr 2016 15:47

sohels wrote:Stuff I stumbled upon on other forums:

Final numbers would be 300 Rafales with 100+ Rafale Ms
The original 36+18 follow on.. The follow on will be later exercised for Rafale M for Indian Navy..
Expect deal announcement soon..

The 18s was pitted very aggressively but a question was asked what besides the jet and cooperation on other projects, the answer was inconclusive.

LnT is getting something very very big from French side as a part of the deal..Will straight forward go to an interesting project where 2 specific products with nuclear propulsion will simultaneously get constructed for 2 very different strategic roles.


Source: http://defence.pk/threads/dassault-rafa ... z4641K5Yjq

Le 14 April 2016 à 3:46 AM, Darkjmfr a dit :
They were reportedly promised PAN and SNA? it will be interesting to see where do the plans.
It's Thales who made the plans of the aircraft carrier English, with corrections DCNS ...
But it seems that it would be 6 SNA and a new generation SSBN. DCNS have a say for IAC2 but the Indians want to see if the US is able to cooperate on this.

Source: https://translate.google.co.in/translat ... page%3D419

Does any of this make sense / seem credible?


The 160 Eurofighters (roughly the same price as the Rafale) cost the UK about the equivalent of $35 billion. 300 Rafale, which includes 100 for the Indian Navy, (if this information is accurate) will cost somewhere between $50-$70 billion. That is a massive incentive for the French to cooperate on the nuclear reactors needed for the new generation SSBNs and SSNs for the Indian Navy through L&T.(The reactor is the weak link in the Arihant, based on first generation Soviet technology). 300 Rafale would be incentive enough for the French for this cooperation. 300 F-18s or even 300 F-35s will not be incentive enough for the US to cooperate on SSBN and SSN propulsion. If this information is accurate, that is what will have swung the deal in favor of the Rafale. IMO, India would like US help for aircraft carrier design and launch technology, so maybe it could be US help for design and EMAL technology with French help for nuclear propulsion if the Indian Navy decides to go the nuclear propulsion route for it's large carriers.

Bottom line quid pro quo, seems to be:

India via it's huge Rafale order will help preserve the independence of the French military aircraft industrial base and in return France will help India build up a technology base for military aircraft manufacture as well as nuclear submarine/aircraft carrier propulsion via the Make in India component of the agreement
Last edited by ldev on 17 Apr 2016 16:10, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Postby Viv S » 17 Apr 2016 16:06

Final numbers would be 300 Rafales with 100+ Rafale Ms


Image

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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Postby Viv S » 17 Apr 2016 16:31

We developed the Arihant from scratch for $5 bn, developed the Tejas for $2 bn, developed the Astra for $250 mil, developed the Akash for $200 mil, developed an AWACS for $100 mil, developed the Pinaka for less than $5 mil, developed the ...
.
.

But to spend $50-70 billion on a foreign weapon system!! Because they promise us ToT?!! To what end? I don't know whether to laugh or cry. Like selling your horse to buy a saddle.

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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Postby JayS » 17 Apr 2016 17:37

[doti shiver]

300 Rafales?? hmm...what money will IAF/IN will be left with to buy NLCA/LCA MK2 or AMCA after that?? Why do we even have our own forces?? Lets just outsource entire defense of our country to US or EU or Russia in return of manpower of brown coolies.

Unless Modi is planning to increase defence expenditure to something like 4% of GDP, I would say bye bye LCA MK2 and AMCA.

[/doti shiver]

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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Postby Vivek K » 17 Apr 2016 17:41

SiddharthS wrote:Modi and Parrikar are not fools. They must be knowing what they are doing. If 40-50 billion can deter our enemies, it is still not expansive.

Are you hoping they know what they're doing? Also, you speak of 40-50 billion very casually. Does India have that much to spare on one weapon system? Can India spend 40-50 billion like you say and still build and buy nuke and other subs, additional aircraft carriers, ........ Like I've always said, a fool and his money are easily parted.

For the price of 36 Rafale (reportedly $9 billion), we could get 360 LCA at $25 million a pop!

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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Postby member_22539 » 17 Apr 2016 17:50

Saurav Jha ‏@SJha1618 9m9 minutes ago

The alignment with France is intended to be deep. But the French will have to part with a lot of tech for it to work.


It does seem to be more than just the Rafale.

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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Postby srai » 17 Apr 2016 18:34

GoI/MoD are having a hard time finding $9 billion for 36 Rafale ... and now people talking about $70 billion spending for more Rafales :shock: Let's bankrupt the defense budget while at it. Go figure!

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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Postby Austin » 17 Apr 2016 18:45

If the go for lic production of Rafale. Total number won't exceed 126 including 36 we are buying off shelf , if IN wants Rafale then add 30 more.

It's better to buy more Tejas and Super MKI instead to buy more Rafale beyond 36 , for half the cost of Rafale deal we would get 2x more Tejas and equally more MKI.

Rafale is good at certain role and would be great asset with SFC but beyond that lets opt for existing cost effective solution to build 44 squadron desired by IAF

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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Postby Singha » 17 Apr 2016 19:04

France had promised to help brazil ssn pgm by tot in exchange for rafale deal.

I think brazil went back on rafale deal and so any tot for ssn did not happen. Brazil has not launched ssn so far
http://gentleseas.blogspot.in/2015

They want to launch their last scorpene with a n reactor for test and then build a barracuda sized class

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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Postby Austin » 17 Apr 2016 19:08

^^ We are looking for building 5-6 SSN and Baracudda Class fits the bill

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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Postby Singha » 17 Apr 2016 19:15

So looks like ssbn raises hackles and will source tech from russia in aridaman+

Ssn on bits n pieces of local, scorpene and barracuda tech with new high power long life reactor if frenchies play ball on tot

This reactor would power our second class of ssbn which will be the Aghori class

But why did hollande look so constipated in dilli?

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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Postby Philip » 17 Apr 2016 19:23

GOI spending like trillionaires when merely billionsires.If the report is true,the silver lining is that the asinine idea of scquiring any of the "teens" has been dumped.I don't know how a mix of Ru and Fr n-reactors will work. If accurate, then a nuclear powered Scorpene derivative would be the SSN design for the 6 SSNS .This explains what s little fish told me last month. Didn't link it with the Raffy deal.
.

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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Postby Singha » 17 Apr 2016 19:24

I cannot offer an argument or pc reason for the name

But it is so pure..so inevitable
.so meaningfully pregnant in a shiva the destroyer way

It must happen. It will happen.

Image

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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Postby Austin » 17 Apr 2016 19:30

Singha wrote:So looks like ssbn raises hackles and will source tech from russia in aridaman+

Ssn on bits n pieces of local, scorpene and barracuda tech with new high power long life reactor if frenchies play ball on tot

This reactor would power our second class of ssbn which will be the Aghori class

But why did hollande look so constipated in dilli?


Well make sense , Russia does not have any Small SSN and all their SSN are double hull which we dont need for our tropical water.

The French On the other hand have great experience with small SSN starting with Rubis and now Baracudda class , We need such 4000-5000 T SSN for our needs , not the big Akula class.

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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Postby svinayak » 17 Apr 2016 20:39

Arun Menon wrote:
Saurav Jha ‏@SJha1618 9m9 minutes ago

The alignment with France is intended to be deep. But the French will have to part with a lot of tech for it to work.


It does seem to be more than just the Rafale.

What about the jet Engine.
Will the French part with ToT on the latest Jet tech

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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Postby member_23694 » 17 Apr 2016 20:46

YEAR | 1 US $  = Rs. | 1 GBP = Rs.
1983 | 10.1 | 16.32

"Defence budget 1983" 6000 crore

Jaguar 1978 1 billion pound deal
Mirage 2000 1982 32 million $ per plane

Not going into merit/demerit but the above deal for Jaguar and Mirage 2000 too were not cheap for the 80's [these were also years of massive increase in defense exp. which is again another story.]

In the current context , Interesting read [page 123-126].
http://books.sipri.org/files/books/SIPRI94Smith.pdf

If only in the 80's a decisive action w.r.t leveraging any of the deal to set up MIC along with advanced tech. was done things would have been quite different now. Deals and R&D were mostly parallel to each other. Hopefully we have learnt our lesson at least in this govt.

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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Postby Singha » 17 Apr 2016 20:52

Barracuda has a 150 mw reactor with 10 yr cycle and pumpjet
Its derivative is the dcn offering for australia

Not exactly as large as astute or uber tfta as vieginia or armed to the teerh like yasen but sized right for us

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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Postby DexterM » 17 Apr 2016 21:15

>>Hopefully we have learnt our lesson at least in this govt.
We paid the price of an LCA for the M2K upgrades. We're still dilly dallying over the Honeywell engine upgrades for the Jag.
And we're paying a heck of a lot more than folks are paying for both stealth (F-35) or brute force (35s).
And we are celebrating. Chankian onlee, verily.

Basically we want to give up on conventional strike or retaliation strengths across the board so we can claim chankianness while paying fist over hand to the Frenchies, and having our balls tied to their chain for any upgrades or changes to either the birds or ships or boats.

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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Postby Gyan » 17 Apr 2016 21:15

The technologies we can source from France:-

SSN, SSBN, Aircraft carriers nuclear reactors
Uranium enrichment and fuel reprocessing capacity
Fast breeder reactors technology
UCAV like HALE version of Rustom and Aurora
Radar seeker for missiles
IIR detector/sensors
AESA radars
Help in LCA MK-2, AMCA
Turbofan, turboshaft, turboprop, marine gas turbine technology

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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Postby DexterM » 17 Apr 2016 21:22

If you pay twice the price for an aircraft, how much more would you pay for an aircraft carrier or reactor tech for boats or carrier ships? Maitri was priced manifold what we already have on hand! What does that tell you?

Who in their right mind would imagine that the French would actually give us any help in any tech when all they have been doing over the past decades is make us pay usurious prices for both purchase and upgrades. So many folks willing to suspend their intellect to rationalize the deal!

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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Postby SaiK » 17 Apr 2016 21:22

^and what will our DRDO boys get?

spend everything to France, Russia and America?

I never knew 1.2 billion can be easily gullible like this.

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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Postby Cain Marko » 17 Apr 2016 21:32

While folks including yours truly are concerned about the money involved...do consider that not all of it will be paid up front although expect a rather large down payment...2 billion per year thereafter for twenty years for a fast growing economy is not the end of the world, also consider that the mod always returns a chunk of the capex...around $5 billion last year I think....no wonder mp was talking of second line.

So, they could afford it even with current budget esp if economy continues to grow.

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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Postby Cain Marko » 17 Apr 2016 21:36

However, I don't think the US and shornet is out of the picture yet. I fully expect Carter to return after some lobbying with congress...

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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Postby Cain Marko » 17 Apr 2016 21:57

Vivek K wrote:
SiddharthS wrote:Modi and Parrikar are not fools. They must be knowing what they are doing. If 40-50 billion can deter our enemies, it is still not expansive.

Are you hoping they know what they're doing? Also, you speak of 40-50 billion very casually. Does India have that much to spare on one weapon system? Can India spend 40-50 billion like you say and still build and buy nuke and other subs, additional aircraft carriers, ........ Like I've always said, a fool and his money are easily parted.

For the price of 36 Rafale (reportedly $9 billion), we could get 360 LCA at $25 million a pop!


Vivek, fwiw the same bloke whose newj is being so vigorously discussed on br also said that expect about 300 lca eventually, may be that helps swallow the bitter sticker shock a little easier

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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Postby DexterM » 17 Apr 2016 22:15

CM, if that were indeed the case, what stopped them from investing more in engine development or simply acquiring specialist metallurgical cos or labs (many were open to partnerships over the past ten years) or building a high altitude test bed? Absolutely nothing good will come out of the offsets for Indian cos. If employment generation was the goal of $50bn, how many jobs are going to be created and what is the specific value that the Govt. will receive? In essence, what is the projected ROI?

Investing a couple of billions in the NITs and IITs would give us higher returns than expecting breathroughs in Nukulartech and other such varmints that folks are trying to peddle as the great chankian deal. We got suckered. Period.

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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Postby brar_w » 17 Apr 2016 22:17

Cain Marko wrote:However, I don't think the US and shornet is out of the picture yet. I fully expect Carter to return after some lobbying with congress...


That is highly unlikely. The progress that has been made would have to be picked up by the next administration. The SHORNET or Viper deals were always highly unlikely, but the other DTTI initiatives would stay active, with lots of room to pick up speed.

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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Postby member_23694 » 17 Apr 2016 22:20

also consider that the mod always returns a chunk of the capex...around $5 billion last year I think...


As per MP , for 2015-16, capex for new acquisition overshot the planned budget. Payment for earlier contracts was around 92% of planned exp. and more to do with delay from supplier side or minor technical issue.

Some additional info
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 083970.cms

In 2015-16, Rs 77,406 crore of the Rs 93,675 crore allocated to the defence ministry was earmarked for acquisition of weapon systems for the three forces. The forces have not been able to exhaust their committed liabilities this year in some cases. Officials said this happened because the payments for previous procurements are to be disbursed after reaching certain milestones such as the delivery of a weapon system or a developmental achievement. "In some cases, deliveries or milestones could not be ensured on time by the departments.
This has resulted in some funds for committed liabilities also lapsing," a senior official said on condition of anonymity. The government has brought in several reforms this year to speed up the acquisition process.

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Re: IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Postby SaiK » 17 Apr 2016 22:31

that 300 a/cs were part of the news link perhaps some ddm-wala asking questions to carter/parikkar joint session.


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