Cosmo_R wrote:@Karan M ^^. Whether DPSUs are inherently worthless, chronically underfunded and strangled by the babooz, it doesn't really matter. For either or both of those reasons they have not delivered. Doing things the same way again will get the same results. Your view is that this time it's different. For me, it is "Deja vu all over again."
The current structure is set up to fail. That's about it.
Look you are having a "I shall read what I wish to see as versus what the other person is saying" issue, driven by the fact you are using this event as an excuse to do an idealogy driven exposition,
Such as -the current structure is set up to fail, - yet it is delivering in key areas. (Incidentally, with the private sector happily trundling along in those select programs).
So here is it simplified- and back to the issue at hand - point out where I have said that "this time its different"? That's your conjecture driven by your idee fixe, not mine.
I merely pointed out that the pie in the sky theories about 300 Rafales, about Modi getting the French to sign on the dotted line with the oh so special private sector.. were.. unlikely. They will send stuff over, sure. But it will be mostly assembly work (as versus screwdrivering at HAL, do it at some other firm).
Nothing Modi/or Parrikar have done so far is about being "radical" or engaging in demagoguery of the kind espoused (bad PSUs vs good private sector etc). They have merely opened up the sector and given licenses wherever possible, but also ensured that the current PSU/DPSU structure has NOT been dismantled but instead is being given the support it needs (less political interference, proper planning and budgeting). This is savvy politics too. He does not have to deal with angry trade unions.
In short, this is NaMo's method - he has the Govt deliver, he does not make it disappear. So to expect HAL to somehow trundle away out of the picture IF the GOI puts up a ton of money & the private sector does not have the required capabilities (or will not put up the funding) is unrealistic.
Second, is your insistence that India will somehow convince the French to "buy in" to economies of scale, make us an extension of their MIC to compete with Russia, PRC, US etc. Again - not happened all these days, what is different now? Why would French politicos transfer scarce expertise to a potential competitor? Why would French SMEs allow it?
Even for Rafale TOT there were angry protests.
So, again, i see nothing from your side to state that this "will be different". Face it, Dassault ensured that it did not transfer any technology to India for the core Rafale and I wouldn't hold my breath on the stuff appearing in the media either.
- "Indian DPSUs are a social project" because they are PSUs. Which again ignores the fact that defense is a social project everywhere in the world.
Same reason why Russia does not want to buy Brahmos but will buy Yakhont.
Same reason why Milan2 indigenization is capped at some 80%, rest import in perpetuity.
Same reason why Israel sells us IR detectors but will not consult the expertise to use them optimally.
Every country wants to protect its defense set up at the expense of others.
Again, this reiterates the fact that its not ownership which is the crux of the issue but (lack of) institutionalized leadership. Private or public, we are in the same mess because if the files land up at the table of a RM like AKA who is not interested, then there will be no progress. And there will be issues because his colleagues are either vested (like our hahvahd crook) or his "leader" is a yes man. If you think HAL is more corrupt than pvt firms, then dear sir, you are an idealist or not even following the nature of corruption in India. The paper trail is also missing in our famous concerns (as vs the more reputed pvt firms which are still working for defense but are not getting their due regard).
So, to summarize - if you are expecting 300 Rafales and unicorns from the private sector making these without fuss and supplanting HAL - IMO its unlikely to happen. The cost of setting up a 2nd airframer is non trivial and our prv sector chaps are not going to budge into investment of such a magnitude.
If we are speaking of some screwdriver assembly 2nd production line being run at Oil processing company, then yes that is possible.
But it will NOT lead to any tangible gains in making the LCA or AMCA or supplanting HAL I am afraid.
That will only come, if GOI opens its pocket books and decides to make a strategic decision, ROI be darned & allegations of impropriety be darned of supporting a pvt competitor to HAL (say L&T or Tata). The issue with that is then you have a duopoly, not a monopoly. So no easy answers there either if you let the babus decide. That has to happen for several programs.
Ultimately though, a one time exemption has to be made and somebody asked to step up - say Tata, L&T etc have to choose. I suspect though it was done, and they avoided the risk. Which is the other fact about our setup. Getting the IAF to sign up for 100 odd Mk1As was a big deal by itself but for such a run can you have 2 lines?http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 010908.cms
Until and unless such "political", strong decisions are taken, IMO we will remain import dependent and France or whosover you refer to will continue to make hay and send screwdrivers.