IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 19 Apr 2016 21:05

That Parikrama guy is quoting Parsoon Sengoopta in the def.pk thread. Enough said.

"Mirage 2000 upgrade is berry expensive because india got special new engine upgrades"

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 19 Apr 2016 21:08

MoS is junior official??

wow..MoS Defence is the dude who comes right after the RM.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 19 Apr 2016 21:16

arthuro wrote:The junior defence minister brushed aside a suggestion that at least six indigenously made Light Combat Aircraft Tejas can be bought for the price of one Rafale plane, saying both the aircraft were totally different in nature and that IAF needed both.

absolutely.. cost factor alone is enough.
i'm not sure if IAF needed both, but definitely needed both class of jets.

jayasimha · Post by **jayasimha** » 19 Apr 2016 21:26

MaharathiArjun wrote:36 Rafale's with 90% availability I think these guys can easily prevent any kargil type misadventure from porkies and chinis.
Seems costly but this is to ensure any misadventure can be dealt with swift response and minimum causalities to India.
Hopefully GOI can push frenchie's to let us integrate Mini Brahmos with rafale's.

May be,,,May be it serves well for the cold start doctrine... Its like coffee vending machine,, i press the button and get coffee immediately...

We see only MKI parked on display or flying in airshow/ functions.. but who knows what goes when inside the hangar... how easy ( or tough) it is to get it on AIR...

My experience is ,, western systems have very good built in test instruments and sensors. You plug a laptop and u will come to know health of the every system inside.

But Russian eqpt....... my god ... sometimes you will faint. AFAIK all are non-Standard and you have to do manually lot of things..

Thats why i think IAF wants Rafffy.. May be they want to drive a point to ruskies. Enough of your vodka and next time we will buy something else..

where as navy wants to go 1 step further and

In A Boost To Make In India, Navy Chief Wants To Build All Submarines And Ships In The Country

just my speculations

member_20453 · Post by **member_20453** » 19 Apr 2016 22:35

Karan M wrote:That Parikrama guy is quoting Parsoon Sengoopta in the def.pk thread. Enough said.

"Mirage 2000 upgrade is berry expensive because india got special new engine upgrades"

very true, lots of those guys like Parikrama, Gessler etc. quote Chorgupta quite often, hence Its quite hard to believe them.

Kakarat · Post by **Kakarat** » 19 Apr 2016 22:48

From BJP Twitter

Bhaskar_T · Post by **Bhaskar_T** » 19 Apr 2016 22:51

One of the above defensenews article answers my queries that where would Rafale squadrons be based!!

Out of the 36 aircraft,18 will be deployed at Ambala air base bordering Pakistan and another 18 will be deployed at an air base in the eastern Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, bordering China.

Bhaskar_T wrote:Tell me that such expensive (and one of the greatest - don't debate on this - IAF has done a detailed study for about 2 years based on 750 parameters) fighters making up 2 squadrons will be based in NE against China. None in BRF has remotely attempted/done any lungi dance since many months/years on this Rafale thing. Probably, confirmation of putting these assets in NE will make me do bit of Lungi Dance.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 19 Apr 2016 22:54

Kakarat wrote:From BJP Twitter

Cant help but laugh at that PR

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 19 Apr 2016 23:00

PR apart look at why Kakarat put it there. It means if BJP is announcing it, (hopefully????) the deal is final. Not final pending review which will lead to final decision at DAC to clear final negotiation for final purchase.

Vipul · Post by **Vipul** » 20 Apr 2016 00:15

Got this link from the unmentionable forum.

-Thirty percent offsets will be embarked for future military aviation research and development (R&D) programs and the remaining 20 percent will be with Indian industries making components for Rafale.
-Safran and Thales will join Dassault in providing state-of-the-art technologies in stealth, radar, thrust vectoring for missiles, and materials for electronics and micro-electronics,
-IAF wants and includes Mica air-to-air missile, Scalp cruise missile and Meteor beyond-visual-range missile and precision-guided munitions.
-An IAF source said India-specific Rafale aircraft will be able to carry 10 tons of weaponry.
-The first Rafale is expected to be delivered within 20 months of signing the G2G agreement.
-There is a long-term requirement of about 10 squadrons of Rafale aircraft

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 20 Apr 2016 01:37

Viv S wrote:
Cain Marko wrote:^ so, that parkram chap was on the spot down to the nuts bolts saying statement will be given by junior mod official not mp...
CM, the MoS is not exactly a junior MoD official. Second in order of precedence within the MoD; perhaps third in terms of influence (after the Defence Secretary).

Junior in context of raksha mantri himself, obviously the deal is large enough to merit someone high up, but not highest that's all.

Karan, I have no idea about this guys connection to prasun, but that means little. You don't need to be sound in tech know-how or in journalistic integrity to have connections....least of all in the ddm space

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 20 Apr 2016 01:41

Good to know that the scalp and the meteor are on the cards...would be very interesting to see some analysis of scalp against uber s300 types..

Cybaru · Post by **Cybaru** » 20 Apr 2016 01:44

Karan M wrote: #3
- "Indian DPSUs are a social project" because they are PSUs. Which again ignores the fact that defense is a social project everywhere in the world.

Same reason why Russia does not want to buy Brahmos but will buy Yakhont.
Same reason why Milan2 indigenization is capped at some 80%, rest import in perpetuity.
Same reason why Israel sells us IR detectors but will not consult the expertise to use them optimally.

Every country wants to protect its defense set up at the expense of others.

+1

That is a great point!

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 20 Apr 2016 01:49

Cain Marko wrote:Junior in context of raksha mantri himself, obviously the deal is large enough to merit someone high up, but not highest that's all.

Err...this is getting a bit bizarre.. the MOS is not junior by any means. The dude was clearly wrong about MOS. MOS is as high as it gets.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_Cou ... s_of_State

Do you think Jayant Sinha, Kiren Rijiju, Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi, Prakash Javadekar, Piyush Goyal, Rajiv Pratap Rudy, Bandaru Dattatreya, Giriraj Singhs are nobodies or relatively small fish in the overall scheme of things?? They are all peers of Rao Inderjit Singh.

Karan, I have no idea about this guys connection to prasun, but that means little. You don't need to be sound in tech know-how or in journalistic integrity to have connections....least of all in the ddm space

If he does have connections, why would he repeat the BS Prasun speaks? Anyone with any connections would know easily that Prasun is fibbing most of the time to get eyeballs to his blog and get some attention.

Also what kind of person goes and talks about all this on a Pakistani blog moment the deal is done? Does he have any common sense?

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 20 Apr 2016 01:51

Vipul wrote:Got this link from the unmentionable forum.

-Thirty percent offsets will be embarked for future military aviation research and development (R&D) programs and the remaining 20 percent will be with Indian industries making components for Rafale.
-Safran and Thales will join Dassault in providing state-of-the-art technologies in stealth, radar, thrust vectoring for missiles, and materials for electronics and micro-electronics,
-IAF wants and includes Mica air-to-air missile, Scalp cruise missile and Meteor beyond-visual-range missile and precision-guided munitions.
-An IAF source said India-specific Rafale aircraft will be able to carry 10 tons of weaponry.
-The first Rafale is expected to be delivered within 20 months of signing the G2G agreement.
-There is a long-term requirement of about 10 squadrons of Rafale aircraft

The Meteor is a very positive development. The IAF FINALLY gets its desired silver bullet. Rest time, will determine.

srai · Post by **srai** » 20 Apr 2016 03:36

Kakarat wrote:From BJP Twitter

It really depends on what was "excluded" to get to the above savings of $3.2 billion. As shown in the past practices, a whole set of things are left for future to be negotiated as separate smaller deals. Hardly anyone keeps track of it after the first major deal, which gets all the limelight. TIFWIW.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 20 Apr 2016 03:42

^ or what was promised in return for lower upfront deal...

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 20 Apr 2016 03:51

Karan M wrote:
Err...this is getting a bit bizarre.. the MOS is not junior by any means. The dude was clearly wrong about MOS. MOS is as high as it gets.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_Cou ... s_of_State

Do you think Jayant Sinha, Kiren Rijiju, Mukhtar Abbas Naqvi, Prakash Javadekar, Piyush Goyal, Rajiv Pratap Rudy, Bandaru Dattatreya, Giriraj Singhs are nobodies or relatively small fish in the overall scheme of things?? They are all peers of Rao Inderjit Singh.

True, but I think he was just making it clear that the dm won't make the announcement, but someone lower down..

If he does have connections, why would he repeat the BS Prasun speaks? Anyone with any connections would know easily that Prasun is fibbing most of the time to get eyeballs to his blog and get some attention.

Also what kind of person goes and talks about all this on a Pakistani blog moment the deal is done? Does he have any common sense?

can't speak for him...but seems like he was on to something. but time will tell, the man says indian raffle engines might have slightly different specs from the adla.

Vivek K · Post by **Vivek K** » 20 Apr 2016 03:57

My respect for the IAF and NaMoji has fallen today.

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 20 Apr 2016 05:20

@Karan M ^^ I am not expecting 300 Rafales and nowhere (that I recall) have I said that. You may be conflating my response to ldev with the that number.

I hope I state this clearly as I can: you can can have all the social projects you want and can afford, BUT they have to deliver what the end user wants. Dassault delivers what the ADA wants along with the rest of their MIC. If they don't, people get fired, companies get restructured and they move on.

Indian DSPUs/PSUs have neither a reward nor a penalty structure. When they don't deliver, no heads roll and we just import from IAI which is a PSU which can and does deliver. Or, Bulgaria, Poland Ukraine, SA or Brazil. This has been going on since the Ishapore 303 rifles froze in the 1962 war. Kargil is another example of last minute frantic purchases from IAI and anyone else who could deliver basics at exorbitant prices.

It's not ideology, it's performance. I don't want to bore the rest of the BRF community with endless debate on what HAL and the DPSUs will do/can do if given more money and time.

If the IAF /GoI is happy with 36 Rafales and a 50% offset for something or other and wants to have HAL and co pursue science projects that will determine the future, great.

Anyway, all this is an aside. I was responding to ldev.

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 20 Apr 2016 09:10

^^^
Very true regarding Indian PSU's non performance record.

Your other question asked a few pages back:

IOW, why do mad dog strategies work for others but not for us?

Because there is no long term "body/organization/group of people" in India to build strategies beneficial to India, strategies which require a multi government, multi party length of time possibly measured in decades to give results. The US has it's Deep State, the UK has it's Old Boy Network, the French have their network of Grandes Ecoles graduates, China has a collaborative nexus betwen it's Communist Party and the Armed Forces, heck even Pakistan has it's Army. These institutions in these countries guarantee the continuation of policies irrespective of which political party /government is in power. It is no wonder that every single member of the P-5 has it's own version of the Deep State and hence they have reached where they have. In contrast in India e.g. a covert capability built up at great effort by one Government is canceled by the next, no continuation of policies and hence no long term benefit for the country.

The Soviet Union had the Communist Party, today's Russia is a "One Man Band Putin". He has not built up the replacement for the CPSU. Hence Russian policies post Putin could change quite dramatically. And that is one primary reason IMO to reduce the overwhelming dependence India has on Russia for military equipment.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 20 Apr 2016 09:16

Karan M wrote:PR apart look at why Kakarat put it there. It means if BJP is announcing it, (hopefully????) the deal is final. Not final pending review which will lead to final decision at DAC to clear final negotiation for final purchase.

That part was always know , the IAF had zeroed it on Rafale way back in 2005 and M2K folks had told this first hand , Raffy was always what they wanted ,it simply got bogged into political quagmire

The PR part was very funny though , No one in India would care for how much GOI saved in Defence Deal as long as its not a scam like Bofors and raises eyebrows , People in this country is only worried about Roti Kapda Makan Education and to top it up the ever rising price of every thing in daily use.

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 20 Apr 2016 09:23

All that I can say is that buying just 36 Rafale will be monumentally foolish. Now that GOI has jumped into the sea, may as well swim the ocean and get another 90 at least.

Also, the M2000 upgrade cost $50 million each, these puppies will be at least $100 million each to upgrade, now that we are intimately familiar with French prices.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 20 Apr 2016 09:24

Cain Marko wrote:Good to know that the scalp and the meteor are on the cards...would be very interesting to see some analysis of scalp against uber s300 types..

Considering IAF is in the process of buying these triple digit SAM's , they would develop tactics to deal with these SAM. more ever the SAM belts are layered so it would be a multiple array of different class of SAM and EW/Decoys stuff that a fighter/cruise missile have to deal with , not to mention things like CAP.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 20 Apr 2016 09:27

ldev wrote:All that I can say is that buying just 36 Rafale will be monumentally foolish. Now that GOI has jumped into the sea, may as well swim the ocean and get another 90 at least.

Also, the M2000 upgrade cost $50 million each, these puppies will be at least $100 million each to upgrade, now that we are intimately familiar with French prices.

Agree it would be back to the 80's if we just end up buying 2 squadron and then end up with expensive facilities , weapons ,MRO etc to just maintain , They should go for the full 126 AC and build the complete capability.

I dont know where they would get that kind of money from but Parrikar always keep saying we have all the money etc etc so may be they started their own USD printing press and Forex has swollen to all time high $360 billion

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 20 Apr 2016 09:47

I am sure the Oppn. could also come up with a PR ad stating MP's own words that "for one Raffy one could get two MKIs"!

How much in billions could be saved then? The earliest budgetary figures were $12B for 126 aircraft.At the aforementioned costs,we will get just half the number of Raffys for $12B. At $70M a pop,the fig given for MKI locally built,we would get 120 MKIs for between $8-9B. An infinitely better option.Instead of just 18 Raffys on each front,we would have 60+ MKIs on each! 3 sqds instead of just one.

For the record,M2K upgraded were hideously costly,$2.5B+ for just 40 fighters while the MIG-29 upgrades-also with new engines,etc.,cost just under $1B for 60+! In fact a brand new IN MIG-29K cost just $32M,at least equal or better than the upgraded IAF 29s.

I watched "Latitude" again where Maroof and a former US ambassador and BK debated the Indian "tilt" towards the US over LEMOA,etc. The threat of Russia taking back its Akula and other JV programmes is a very real one according to BK if India goes any further with signing on the dotted line,allowing the US to effectively have a foothold on the subcontinent. The apparent seriousness with which the GOI took up the offer of building ancient "teens" at home may have been a devious ploy by the GOI to get the French to compromise on the Raffy costs.However,unless full details are available,we won't know how much bang we will get for our bucks. BK also drew comparisons with the def tech TOT between Russia and the US,the latter with woefully low tech items,nothing cutting edge. MR and BK wondered why the M govt. was tilting towards the US when it would never ever give up arming Pak.

This is where the French score over the US.They are willing to provide us with whatever we want,but at a hefty price. They too can provide some of the cutting edge tech that the Russians can,with the Israelis coming third in the standings.

GeorgeWelch · Post by **GeorgeWelch** » 20 Apr 2016 10:39

Philip wrote:The threat of Russia taking back its Akula and other JV programmes is a very real one according to BK if India goes any further with signing on the dotted line,allowing the US to effectively have a foothold on the subcontinent.

But I was assured Russia is such good friend and sanction proof . . .

Gyan · Post by **Gyan** » 20 Apr 2016 10:40

IMHO this PR exercise is just an attempt to mould public perception in favor of super expensive and needless deal for 36 Rafales.

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 20 Apr 2016 11:32

Whatever brings this endless saga to a close. Either go forward and sign a contract, or cancel this deal once for all.

Khalsa · Post by **Khalsa** » 20 Apr 2016 12:36

Kakkaji wrote:Whatever brings ghis endless saga to a close. Either go forward and sign a contract, or cancel this deal once for all.

Yeahppp I am with KakaJi.
Lets be done with whatever.

Its the undone work that tires a man.
In this case ... this state of limbo is bloody frustrating.

Gyan · Post by **Gyan** » 20 Apr 2016 13:32

Now with Rafale deal done, the import in India focus will shift to FGFA deal. I have given up all hope of indigenisation of Indian Defence Equipment with this deal. If Modi Govt won't do it, it is futile to expect Congress or kichdi Govt to do it. The fact that BJP is coming out with twitter support shows that they are expecting skepticism in public forum. But BJP should have full faith on DDM on this issue, they would have long sold themselves to Dassault.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 20 Apr 2016 13:39

GeorgeWelch wrote:
Philip wrote:The threat of Russia taking back its Akula and other JV programmes is a very real one according to BK if India goes any further with signing on the dotted line,allowing the US to effectively have a foothold on the subcontinent.
But I was assured Russia is such good friend and sanction proof . . .

they are and will continue to be so long as some red lines are not crossed.

In a manner of speaking, this is the trusted devil that we know as opposed to the untrustworthy devil that we don't or even want to know

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 20 Apr 2016 13:48

Bad deal to the end. But thank god it is all over and done. MOD baboons and IAF with its no plan B statement forced huge cost on the nation and political leadership also may not be willing to make French unhappy at this late stage as we may need them later on. Hopefully this is the last of such horrible deals for the nation.

The US treaty may prove to be much more of a bad deal than this.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 20 Apr 2016 13:52

The money for this act of gross and extreme profligacy will come out of the pockets of the Indian taxpayer,you and me.Don't forget it everytime when prices rise and the pocket pinches.Moreover,when this $12B deal for a full house of 126 aircraft was first envisaged,what was the exchange rate between the Rupee and Dollar? The IAF are getting their fancy toys in a period of extreme drought in the country.The current dispensation needs to act with fiscal responsibly in such times of distress.
No one doubts the potency of the "omni-role" Raffy,but there are sev cost effective alternatives (from both West and East) for the IA which will also raise sqd strength...and save money which could be used for other IAF needs like tankers,AEW aircraft,extra transports,etc.

What dismays the vast majority of BRF members also is the apparent lack of enthusiasm with which the LCA is being pursued.It cannot be denied that the great concerted effort in finalising the Rafale deal is not being shown with the LCA despite a massive requirement for the IAF-at least 200+ and exports too with Egypt and Sri Lanka officially showing interest. This report may offer some solace,from the LCA td.,but even 8-12 aircraft/yr means a decade before 5-6 sqds are inducted.Who will want a Tejas MK-1 that doesn't meet the 1980's specs in 2025?! Tejas at this rate may end up like the HF-24,with just 120+ being built.

HAL on mission mode to ramp up Tejas production

The US treaty may prove to be much more of a bad deal than this.

Bhaskar_T · Post by **Bhaskar_T** » 20 Apr 2016 14:14

Nothing worth in below link so not quoting the text.

20 April 2016 -
http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/move-ove ... ts-1397555

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 20 Apr 2016 14:24

Bhaskar_T wrote:Nothing worth in below link so not quoting the text.

20 April 2016 -
http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/move-ove ... ts-1397555

Dont see the reason why they need another line , when we have the Tejas ready ....so how many class of fighter will they maintain ? Are we back to the circus of 80's ?

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 20 Apr 2016 14:30

May be we never left that circus in the first place. IAF wants light, medium and heavy ACs even now. It is not ready to accept heavy one which can do medium ACs at much cheaper cost. What can we do other than trust IAF.

srai · Post by **srai** » 20 Apr 2016 15:04

^^^

Medium category will have 4 types (Mirage-2000, MiG-29, Jaguar and Rafale) in itself.

arthuro · Post by **arthuro** » 20 Apr 2016 16:10

One should be realistic.

Under the same contract perimeter: 50% offsets, facilities for two air force base, weapons, intial training, full set of spares, development of new capabilities...Any other new wetern type fighter jet would be very expensive...x% less, x% more...But it would not make a huge difference, you would be in the same cost area. There is an initial investement to make to absorb a new type of fighter jet...Follow on orders should be far cheaper if they occur.

It is always the same mistake: some obviously love to compare apples and oranges. When comparing with the price of an MKI they always forget to look at the initial investment necessary (spares, facilities, training weapons, license royalties)...The difference should be much, much narrower than 1vs2 factor at a comparable cost perimeter.

Even the ex-IAF top brass admitted in a video that the LCA was not that cheap of a fighter if you take into account decades of development and delays.

The debate should not be about the rafale being expensive: it is, but just like any new fighter jet type for IAF with such contract conditions...(50% offsets!). But rather whether the IAF need a new type and what is the expected rationalization of IAF assets after the rafale deal (too many types in service).

arthuro · Post by **arthuro** » 20 Apr 2016 16:14

srai wrote:^^^

Medium category will have 4 types (Mirage-2000, MiG-29, Jaguar and Rafale) in itself.

I guess Mirage 2000, Mig 29 and Jaguars will be replaced by rafales gradually to make up for the medium category (or another type but with a rafale deal that would seem odd).