VKumar wrote:In time to come, I expect Rafale to reach at least 5 squadrons by 2022, as MIG 21 & 27 retire in large numbers.
I expect LCA production to ramp up 2017, especially with LCA 2, to give 5 squadrons of LCA (mix) by 2022.
Perhaps if PAKFA is delayed, we may induct more of SU 30MKI, maybe 3 squadrons additionally by 2022.
UCAV will be an additional layer.
Aircraft numbers will reduce but capability of new aircraft will take care of that.
With PAKFA, LCA newer versions, MCA all coming about 2025 time frame and with essential force multipliers sufficient in numbers and technology as compared to our neighbours , IAF will be in strong position by 2030 on all fronts. Its the economy that has to hold up. Hardware will be in place but attracting right type of pilots will be critical requiring more investment in HRD, better emoluments etc.
Your timelines are a bit off.
For instance, the first LCA Mk.2 will not be joining the IAF until after 2022 (that is if revised R&D go according to plan). AMCA, with lots of next gen technologies, will not be ready until after 2030. Aurora UCAV is post 2040. PAK-FA/FGFA is post 2020 at the earliest if the IAF wants just a "limited" capability and un-customized version; otherwise, it is more likely 2025. Rafale is too damn expensive @$300 million per plane! More units decision is out of the hands of the IAF as that needs to pass MoD and Finance ministry, which doesn't have the funds to support more Rafales and all other acquisitions for all three services. You will need a much bigger defence budget if you want that.
So the choice for the IAF remains: does it want to order more of under production LCA Mk.1s and Su-30MKIs between 2017 and 2022? Or keep waiting for a more "perfect" Rafale, FGFA, LCA Mk.2, etc?