IAF Rafale News and Discussions - 26 May 2015

Cosmo_R · Post by **Cosmo_R** » 30 Mar 2016 03:35

^^^"With Parrikar apparently willing to outlast the French, who'll be less willing to knuckle down as they close in on a major UAE deal, the outcome still remains very uncertain."

I think now that is the end game. Get the French to walk away and avoid the substantial penalties written into the original MMRCA bid for failing to select the winner as the supplier. IIUC, the contract was written (by our brilliant babooze) to take any guess work out the process that might be construed as 'corruption': the process was to be strictly followed at great expense to the bidders but with the assurance that one among would be chosen according to the criteria and nothing else on a cost AGNOSTIC basis. Meaning "flyway cost". Once the French 'won', they showed their full price with all the 'necessary extras'. The total cost of ownership or $200MM/unit. There was not and is not enough money to pay for this. AKA took a hike and the NDA was left with this mess.

Modi negotiated that penalty out if they could buy 36 off the shelf at to be agreed reasonable prices. That may now not happen but he will save us from paying the Frenchies the $100MMx penalties OR having to pay ~$200MM per a/c on fully costed basis. If there is no agreement on price, we are free to look elsewhere.

The question now is what are the missing parts of his plan B? LCA certainly. MY guess is the Boeing F/A 18 offer. We'll know shortly after April 10.

srai · Post by **srai** » 30 Mar 2016 03:47

^^^
GoI will likely keep dragging it some more to avoid penalty clauses. Price difference of $4-5 billion for 36 units is too much to overcome, unless old practices are followed by GoI which is to break the deal into smaller digestible parts with initial deal at $7 billion and subsequent deals for the rest spread over years but the grand total still will be $12 billion (probably more since protracted) that the French are quoting. With this approach, final true cost will be hidden to the public/news outlets unless they go digging, which no one seems to be doing.

As far as other foreign MRCA candidates go, it's not going to happen. Takes too long to negotiate a deal that includes 50% offset, ToT, maybe licensed production, weapons, LCC, infrastructure and training along with other G-to-G MoU on usage, monitoring, etc.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 30 Mar 2016 04:31

Just connecting the dots, I would not put the F series out of the picture. If the US can provide what the French were depended on, then the rafale becomes expendable. All that remains is a whole lot of reactors. The French will get their blood there.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 30 Mar 2016 10:57

The statement from the DM that we may see "one sqd each year" of the LCA and that it will shortly be inducted (this year?),means that as far as MIG-21 replacements are concerned,we may be on firmer footing. Perhaps the extra LCA prod. will come from a second prod unit. 2 extra MKI sqds would make up for the 36 Rafales.Cost will be just $4B for 40 MKIs and 40 LCAs.That leaves $4B in the pocket for tankers,AWACS/AEW aircraft,etc.Sheer economics may make this the most likely outcome.

Vipul · Post by **Vipul** » 30 Mar 2016 16:42

I agree. Even if the French now agree to the lower prices we should not be buying the Rafale. It would be criminal wastage of our limited dollars. The french can be kept happy with the order for nuclear reactors and possible new order for extending the production run of Scorpene at Mazgaon Docks.

ldev · Post by **ldev** » 31 Mar 2016 19:43

Qatar, France Complete Dassault Rafale Fighter Jet Deal

The fighter deal, which includes MBDA missiles, training for 36 pilots and some 100 mechanics, was earlier reported to be worth €6.3 billion (US $6.9 billion); however, it was announced Tuesday that the deal is worth €6.7 billion (US $7.5 billion).

The deal has been made for the same number of jets purchased by Egypt in 2014, but the Qatari deal is priced higher due to the provision of long-range cruise missiles as well as Meteor missiles.

So $7.5 billion for 24 aircraft is $312.5 Million per aircraft. If India signs at $8 billion for 36 aircraft, all those who favor it will say that at the resultant price of $222 Million per aircraft, India got a good deal

. At least compared to what the Qataris will pay!!

member_28756 · Post by **member_28756** » 31 Mar 2016 22:15

http://en.terra.com/news/news/uae_says_ ... /act430073

UAE says Rafale proposal "unworkable"
March 31, 2016 • 10:45AM

"Regrettably Dassault seem unaware that all the diplomatic and political will in the world cannot overcome uncompetitive and unworkable commercial terms," he said.

Officials at Dassault Aviation , which builds the Rafale, declined to comment.

A government source close to the deal blamed the current impasse on the "arrogance" of Dassault, despite French military officials saying they were confident about securing a deal and hopes of finalizing the sale at the Dubai Air Show.

Akshay Kapoor · Post by **Akshay Kapoor** » 31 Mar 2016 22:23

^

Very candid comments from UAE right at the top of the government !!

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 31 Mar 2016 22:26

To be fair that's actually a reprint of old news from 2011 -

Rafale warplane deal stalled, UAE says proposal "unworkable" - Nov 2011

A long-awaited French deal for Dassault (AVMD.PA) to sell at least 60 Rafale warplanes to the United Arab Emirates appeared to hit a roadblock on Wednesday after the Arab country's crown prince said proposed terms were "uncompetitive and unworkable."

The deal, which had been negotiated for the better part of a year, was thrown into doubt earlier this week when it became clear that the UAE had asked for details on a rival aircraft, the Typhoon built by the Eurofighter consortium.

"Thanks to President (Nicolas) Sarkozy, France could not have done more diplomatically or politically to secure the Rafale deal," Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed, deputy of the country's armed forces, said in a statement, adding that Sarkozy's "personal intervention in this process has sustained Dassault at the forefront of our considerations."

"Regrettably Dassault seem unaware that all the diplomatic and political will in the world cannot overcome uncompetitive and unworkable commercial terms," he said.

A source close to the deal blamed the current impasse on the "arrogance" of Dassault, despite French military officials saying they were confident about securing a deal and hopes of finalising the sale at the Dubai Air Show.

"There is a shared frustration in both the UAE and French leaderships at the apparent arrogance of Dassault," the source said.

"Rather than using the strength of the bilateral relationship to close the deal out they are attempting to use it to hold out on pricing and a deal structure that hasn't changed in more than a year and that has been significantly bettered by all competitors."

Bhaskar_T · Post by **Bhaskar_T** » 31 Mar 2016 23:48

Have a dekko @Eurofighter, try to get them into AMCA engine tech, starting with Eurojet engine.

<political angle ON>

I really wish someone from opposition (UPA) should have filed a case on this Rafale purchase. Court should order a reanalysis of how L1 was achieved just to expose the babus or Dassault who gave not-so-right-costs to start with. In such scenario, Modi ji can respond by cancelling the Rafale deal (to save himself and India by not paying hard earned cash) and get opposition to sign the Land Acquisition bill. Win-win for all except arrogant Frenchs. Order something else than Rafale - 4 squadrons of Super Sukhoi or Su-35. Parrikar ji is being avoided by Modi ji for latter foreign policy mess-up with regards to Rafale purchase. I so much wish that Subramaniam Swamy could have stopped Modi ji (actually Swami ji wanted to stop this deal) but do not know what offer has been made to Swamy, he is mostly shut-in on this issue.

<political angle OFF>

Regards,
Jingo.

Cain Marko · Post by **Cain Marko** » 02 Apr 2016 03:54

^ IIRC for better or worse, the GE F414 has already been decided upon as the default engine for the AMCA. IOWs, Eurojet fell to the winds the moment it lost the competition for the LCA engine update. So, if second line has to come up - it would behoove planners to consider the commonalities provided by the Shornet.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 02 Apr 2016 05:21

^^^^^

From Dec, 2015 meeting:

Minister Parrikar and Secretary Carter ............................... They further expressed satisfaction that the Jet Engine Technology Joint Working Group (JETJWG), which met this week in Bengaluru, had concluded its Terms of Reference and had productive discussion on cooperation in this area.

...............................

Secretary Carter informed Minister Parrikar that in light of the strengthening relationship between the United States and India, the DoD has updated its policy on gas turbine engine technology transfer to India. As a result of this policy update, the Secretary is confident that the United States will be able to expand cooperation in production and design of jet engine components. Secretary Carter and Minister Parrikar look forward to U.S. companies working with their Indian counterparts to submit transfer requests that will benefit from this updated policy

NOTE:
1) The "DoD has updated policy"
2) "As a result of this policy update, the Secretary is confident that the United States will be able to expand cooperation" - read: it has to still to go past the DoState. But, the DoD seems to have enough ducks lined up to push it through.

Eric Leiderman · Post by **Eric Leiderman** » 03 Apr 2016 08:54

http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-bu ... wins-15670

Quite a few titbits on the F-18 especially the semi stelth one that boooeing has developed , If we are going for 106 aircraft of the medium catogery, then the 18 is looking good, with more thrust possibly a growler light thrown in. Thinking aloud" Possibly RCS of Stealth light of USA = FGFA stealth "

sankum · Post by **sankum** » 03 Apr 2016 09:44

If Rafale deal falls through than Superhornet should be the first choice for GOI in govt. to govt deal.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 03 Apr 2016 10:10

sankum wrote:If Rafale deal falls through than Superhornet should be the first choice for GOI in govt. to govt deal.

If Rafale deal is stuck only on price then there is no guarantee that Superhornet or any other aircraft wont be stuck up in same price negotiation , GOI might just not agree to the price of vendor , Even assuming the other vendor are providing the same terms and condition as Rafale does and the never ending saga of negotiation starts this them the vendor is different.

All in all GOI might be then better to to scrap the deal and invest in MKI and Tejas program and upgrade existing types.

I wonder why they just dont built 4-5 squadron of Jaguar latest variat with Radar , BVR and WVR missile , its a good aircraft and would be better with engine upgrade.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 03 Apr 2016 11:51

MANNY K wrote:http://en.terra.com/news/news/uae_says_ ... /act430073

UAE says Rafale proposal "unworkable"
March 31, 2016 • 10:45AM

"Regrettably Dassault seem unaware that all the diplomatic and political will in the world cannot overcome uncompetitive and unworkable commercial terms," he said.

Officials at Dassault Aviation , which builds the Rafale, declined to comment.

A government source close to the deal blamed the current impasse on the "arrogance" of Dassault, despite French military officials saying they were confident about securing a deal and hopes of finalizing the sale at the Dubai Air Show.

isubodh · Post by **isubodh** » 03 Apr 2016 12:25

Why not form a buyers group to make a good bargain, the bigger number will make the Make in India a worthwhile proposition.

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 03 Apr 2016 12:37

isubodh wrote:Why not form a buyers group to make a good bargain, the bigger number will make the Make in India a worthwhile proposition.

India's requirements are much more stringent than lax sidekick nations of the world and our orders are bigger anyway. Besides if the French successfully bribe the defence min of some ch**tiya nation we will get screwed

Gyan · Post by **Gyan** » 03 Apr 2016 14:19

IAF has presented our RM with two super costly choice of Rafale And T-50. I say, kill both, go for LCA and Su-30MKI while developing UCAV and AMCA for stealth role.

Vivek K · Post by **Vivek K** » 03 Apr 2016 19:26

^^^^^+1 Gyan!!

Vivek K · Post by **Vivek K** » 03 Apr 2016 19:30

It seems that UAE procurement officials are smarter than IAF's procurement officials!

Y I Patel · Post by **Y I Patel** » 03 Apr 2016 21:37

Y I Patel wrote:I could be wrong, but it seems to me that the deal is all but moribund. IAF, IMHO, is not going to get the Katrina at all - not 36, not 96... PAK FA? Maybe. Super Hornet? Maybe. Rafale? No.

I had said this in late October last year, before the hype related to Hollande visit, etc. This is becoming clearer as the days go by, so I feel emboldened to make some more projections.

While the deal is all but moribund, we will not hear any Indian official declare it so... until some other deal is in place. That other deal is increasingly looking like an American vendor (my odds are on the ASH), but FGFA might still pull it off (or maybe both but that's looking less likely). The reason is that Indian officials do not want to fall into the single vendor trap again. So MP will say something, ACM Raha will say something, and even the PM might chime in with how badly he wants the Rafale deal to be done. All that is posturing associated with negotiations, and not aimed just at the French!

So enjoy the popcorn, and try not to get worked up about the hoopla! And if you really want more insight into all of this, no need to be thinking about Gujju businessmen and their attitudes. Just think of your mom's or aunt's tactics when she bargains with the sari-wala

member_29245 · Post by **member_29245** » 04 Apr 2016 20:24

ramana wrote:Dassault got uppity after setting up JV with Ambani gang.
They thought they can throw their weight around.

No they thought they can throw the ambani weight around

member_29245 · Post by **member_29245** » 04 Apr 2016 20:37

Akshay Kapoor wrote:Tell me honestly. What do you really want in terms of alternatives to Rafale. Spell out a few options with costs taking into account our op needs and plans.

Let's look at roles and area of operations

I want

Su34/
Probably 60
Given over to Indian naval aviation wing
Navy will take over the dominance role in Indian ocean region
With naval bases along the coast of India it should be easy
They will dominate the ior from straits of mallaca to Diego Garcia and the northern shores of Africa and gulf countries

It will also free up iaf and reduce the nis requirement of iaf and reduce the iaf tauntrums

Also
60 super su30mki to go with the su34 for the Navy

And of course the naval lca & naval amca in future to go with them

Then that leaves iaf with reduced nis requirement

For iaf 60 su30mki 60 mig29k and 160 more tejas

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 06 Apr 2016 17:21

Kuwaities are buying EF2ks from Italy at $8b for 28 puppies.

The deal also includes logistics, operational support and the training of flight crews and ground personnel,..

now check how much EF2K would have quoted and why IAF chose Rafale?

something is hidden in the files and math

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 06 Apr 2016 18:57

Harin wrote:
ramana wrote:Dassault got uppity after setting up JV with Ambani gang.
They thought they can throw their weight around.

No they thought they can throw the ambani weight around

Mota bhai!

kit · Post by **kit** » 06 Apr 2016 19:17

"Thanks to President (Nicolas) Sarkozy, France could not have done more diplomatically or politically to secure the Rafale deal," Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed, deputy of the country's armed forces, said in a statement, adding that Sarkozy's "personal intervention in this process has sustained Dassault at the forefront of our considerations."

ritesh · Post by **ritesh** » 06 Apr 2016 19:39

ToIlet is out with new....India keen on US’s F/A-18 jet offer Dont know, how true is this news.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 706566.cms

deejay · Post by **deejay** » 06 Apr 2016 19:54

ritesh wrote:ToIlet is out with new....India keen on US’s F/A-18 jet offer Dont know, how true is this news.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 706566.cms

Okay, a Rajat Pandit work. Please filter out the gems of wisdom.

I did not find any.

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 06 Apr 2016 20:11

Some major announcements centered around Carter's initiatives are expected during the upcoming visit, he said as much at CSIS yesterday, but I don't think anyone expects any major move to open up the Super Hornet since Boeing's and Lockheed's proposals most MMRCA have largely been unsolicited.

ritesh · Post by **ritesh** » 06 Apr 2016 20:59

deejay wrote:
ritesh wrote:ToIlet is out with new....India keen on US’s F/A-18 jet offer Dont know, how true is this news.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 706566.cms
Okay, a Rajat Pandit work. Please filter out the gems of wisdom.

I did not find any.

My bad, will check going forward. Thanks

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 06 Apr 2016 22:36

brar_w wrote:Some major announcements centered around Carter's initiatives are expected during the upcoming visit, he said as much at CSIS yesterday, but I don't think anyone expects any major move to open up the Super Hornet since Boeing's and Lockheed's proposals most MMRCA have largely been unsolicited.

saab ji, can you point to exactly the whats on the initiatives?

brar_w · Post by **brar_w** » 06 Apr 2016 22:38

SaiK wrote:
brar_w wrote:Some major announcements centered around Carter's initiatives are expected during the upcoming visit, he said as much at CSIS yesterday, but I don't think anyone expects any major move to open up the Super Hornet since Boeing's and Lockheed's proposals most MMRCA have largely been unsolicited.
saab ji, can you point to exactly the whats on the initiatives?

It could be anything and Everything under DTTI since it was his pet project in his last capacity as US-AT&L and this the last time he'll likely have peer level discussions on it.

This was Yesterday Morning :

And so we’re looking to do – to do more with India. Indians are, like many others, also proud. So they want to do things independently, and they want to do things their own way. They don’t want to do things just with us. They want to do things with – all that’s fine.
So we’re not looking for anything exclusive. But we are looking for as close a relationship and a stronger relationship as we can, because it’s geopolitically grounded.
The specific things we’re doing with them are twofold. One is, you know, we have the rebalance, so to speak, westward from the United States. They have Act East, which is their strategic approach eastward. And these are like two hands grasping one another. And that’s a good thing.
And second, we have our defense technology and trade initiative, John, which is an effort to work with India to do something they want to do, which is they want to improve the technical capabilities of their own defense industry and their own defense capabilities. But they don’t want to just be a buyer. They want to be a co-developer and co-producer. They want that kind of relationship.
That very much – and that’s what we’re working with them on. And that matches very much up with Prime Minister Modi’s Make in India initiative. And so in – we’re very much aligned in terms of what the government there is trying to do strategically and economically and what we want to do with them defense-wise. So we’ve got a whole lot of stuff to do. And when I go over there, we’ve got a whole bunch of things that we’ll be announcing at that time and I won’t announce beforehand but that are new milestones in this relationship.

http://csis.org/files/attachments/16040 ... ground.pdf

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 06 Apr 2016 22:52

Manu Pubby's take:

'Make in India' boost: Boeing & Lockheed Martin offer to locally manufacture F16 and F/A 18 jets

NEW DELHI: In the first government facilitated talks on producing an American fighter jet in India, rivals Boeing and Lockheed Martin (LM) jointly met top defence ministry officials in the capital on Tuesday, offering to locally manufacture the F16 'Super Viper' and a customised F/A 18 'Super Hornet' for Indian Air Force requirements.

Viv S · Post by **Viv S** » 06 Apr 2016 23:37

Manu Pubby's take:

NEW DELHI: In the first government facilitated talks on producing an American fighter jet in India, rivals Boeing and Lockheed Martin (LM) jointly met top defence ministry officials in the capital on Tuesday, offering to locally manufacture the F16 'Super Viper' and a customised F/A 18 'Super Hornet' for Indian Air Force requirements.

'Jointly met'? How peculiar. Maybe the 'top defence ministry officials' were short on time.

Lockheed Martin rep: "Good evening people. We'd like to present the best fighter for the IAF, which should provide a good contrast to some crap that may be peddled by some dumbasses today."

Boeing rep: "Good evening folks. This here is the fighter you're actually looking for. We're sure you'd it will come as a relief after the shit doled out by certain jackasses today."

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 07 Apr 2016 01:22

Gyan wrote:IAF has presented our RM with two super costly choice of Rafale And T-50. I say, kill both, go for LCA and Su-30MKI while developing UCAV and AMCA for stealth role.

What is it that Rafale or F/A-18 do have each and PAK-FA/FGFA does not have?

Indranil · Post by **Indranil** » 07 Apr 2016 01:34

Viv S wrote:
Manu Pubby's take:

NEW DELHI: In the first government facilitated talks on producing an American fighter jet in India, rivals Boeing and Lockheed Martin (LM) jointly met top defence ministry officials in the capital on Tuesday, offering to locally manufacture the F16 'Super Viper' and a customised F/A 18 'Super Hornet' for Indian Air Force requirements.
'Jointly met'? How peculiar. Maybe the 'top defence ministry officials' were short on time.

Lockheed Martin rep: "Good evening people. We'd like to present the best fighter for the IAF, which should provide a good contrast to some crap that may be peddled by some dumbasses today."

Boeing rep: "Good evening folks. This here is the fighter you're actually looking for. We're sure you'd it will come as a relief after the shit doled out by certain jackasses today."

GeorgeWelch · Post by **GeorgeWelch** » 07 Apr 2016 02:09

vishvak wrote:What is it that Rafale or F/A-18 do have each and PAK-FA/FGFA does not have?

Immediate availability and independence of Russia.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 07 Apr 2016 03:18

indranilroy wrote:
Manu Pubby's take:

NEW DELHI: In the first government facilitated talks on producing an American fighter jet in India, rivals Boeing and Lockheed Martin (LM) jointly met top defence ministry officials in the capital on Tuesday, offering to locally manufacture the F16 'Super Viper' and a customised F/A 18 'Super Hornet' for Indian Air Force requirements.'Jointly met'? How peculiar. Maybe the 'top defence ministry officials' were short on time.

About few years back i flew to Delhi and found out the flight out of FRA In Firstaaa class filled with Lockheed and Boeing Team assigned for MMRCA trials. They were freely talking to each other hoping one of them will get the order. There was no hint of rivalry between 2, more like matter of nationalism and opening the new market . I just pretended to not know what they were talking about. After few hard drinks, pounds of caviar and German Dessert wine all got quiet except snoring.

NRao · Post by **NRao** » 07 Apr 2016 03:31

GeorgeWelch wrote:
vishvak wrote:What is it that Rafale or F/A-18 do have each and PAK-FA/FGFA does not have?
Immediate availability and independence of Russia.

1) As a FYI: http://forums.bharat-rakshak.com/viewto ... 5#p2002135.

For sure the FGFA does not even exist. I doubt the PAK-FA exists either. What exists, IMVVHO, is a test product - a tech demo, if you will - that is in a very bad need of funds to take the next step. My feel is that IF India decides not to go this route that the Russians will themselves produce an inferior platform for their own use (than the user expects) and in much lesser number than their real need. They already have opted for the Su-35 and if the numbers for that plane go up, it is a very safe bet that the PAK-FA is not going beyond a certain point - both in quality and quantity.

2) On the F-16 (which I am surprised about) or the F-18 (BUT, MP did mention he may look into getting two lines), it is FAR more than India buying a US plane/s or MMI project. We are witnessing a rearrangement in the world order and India is asking for a higher slot on that rung. And, if one notices the dance very carefully, India is dealing with the US (1-A) and China (1-B). Because India wants to be 2. (Will India get there? Cannot say, although I am betting she will. In about 5-10 years). Russia is not missed anywhere. (That is the way it is, nothing +ve or -ve.)

However, I expect the F-16 or the F-18 to be FAR superior to any other 4th Gen plane out there - neither France nor Russia can match it. My expectation. IF India were to sign the three documents next week, then I expect a ton of sensitive techs to be transferred (and tracked to ensure they are not leaked to adversaries) (but I do not expect any interference in the FP of India)

Even the nuclear summit in DC, IMVVHO, was very well scripted. Nothing out of place.