Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

All threads that are locked or marked for deletion will be moved to this forum. The topics will be cleared from this archive on the 1st and 16th of each month.
chaitanya
BRFite
Posts: 179
Joined: 27 Sep 2002 11:31
Location: US
Contact:

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby chaitanya » 07 Oct 2015 19:40

Consumer sentiment hits record low in September: Survey

NEW DELHI: Domestic consumer sentiment in September dipped to its lowest level since November 2012 as households were increasingly pessimistic about their finances amid sluggish demand conditions, a Deutsche Borse survey said.


How reliable is this survey? Also, a smattering of things in this article (I posted relevant quotes in the appropriate threads but did not know where to put these):

National War Memorial, new AIIMS & bonus for railway employees: 7 things Cabinet cleared today

2) The Cabinet cleared a national watershed management plan, Neeranchal, to be done under the Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayi Yojana. This plan will have a total outlay of Rs 2,142.30 crore, which will be implemented at the national level as well as in the nine states of Andhra Pradesh, Chattisgarh, Gujarat, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Odisha, Rajasthan and Telangana. Of the Rs 2142.30 crore alloted, the government's share is Rs 1,071.15 crore and the rest is the loan component from the World Bank.


7) The Cabinet also approved the protocol for avoidance of double taxation with Israel and Vietnam for prevention of fiscal evasion with respect to taxes on income and on capital.

Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 12654
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 07 Oct 2015 20:35

The consumer sentiment survey sounds fairly new. Without historical data comparing the survey to subsequent monthly or quarterly household spending figures, it's hard to say if it translates to anything.

panduranghari
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3751
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby panduranghari » 08 Oct 2015 10:40

^ Its similar to Michigan survey in the US. Its not used much by the establishment but it is a good weather vane of the economic times.

Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 12654
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 08 Oct 2015 12:36

It's not the methodology that's the issue, but the lack of backtested history correlating the data to other macroeconomic numbers. It can't be fixed by anything except a longer history.

asgkhan
BRFite
Posts: 1676
Joined: 16 Apr 2009 17:19
Location: Helping BRF research how to seduce somali women

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby asgkhan » 08 Oct 2015 14:21

http://www.dnaindia.com/money/report-in ... ly-2132725

India not even close to where China was 5 years ago: Chinese daily

The Chinese daily has taken on a New York Times news report that claimed that India may replace China as the next big frontier for US tech companies.

Taking a dig at an American media report that 'India replaces China as next big frontier for the US tech companies', an article in a state-run Chinese daily said India was "not even close" to where China was five years ago.

Commenting on the New York Times report that 'India replaces China as next big frontier for US tech companies' after meetings of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping with the executives of US tech companies during their recent visits to the US, an article in the Global Times pointed to the inability of the BJP government to get the GST legislation through the Parliament.

"For instance, the states of India all have set their own varied taxes and multiple payments have to be made when commodities circulate between states. Unifying the taxes of commodities and services has been called on for years, but this is always blocked in the parliament. Even Modi cannot overcome this. In this circumstance, it is hard to forge ahead with developing an Internet economy," the article said.

"The development of the Internet cannot be separated from the level of the overall economy. India's Internet economy will not advance rapidly, let alone become the main driving force for India's economy unless the country enhances the openness and competitiveness of its overall economy, integrates markets effectively, and builds a base for primary and intermediate manufacturing," it said.

"If this cannot be done, Modi's plan of making 'Digital India' will be just empty talk. From this perspective, India is not even close to where China was five years ago," it said.

It is the development of China's manufacturing that has laid a foundation for the rapid expansion of Internet economy, the daily said.

"Shopping online after all requires the provision of commodities. What India needs is an all-round and multi- layered manufacturing industry that can adapt to changes and be competitive," it said.

"India lags behind China in the fields of manufacturing, logistics and infrastructure by more than five years. Apart from the hardware, the key actually lies in the integration and openness of markets and in this respect China is more accomplished than India," it said.

"Undisputedly, India has huge potential in terms of population and Internet use. But the development of the Internet economy doesn't solely depend on large population, and it is not decided simply by factors like the number of mobile phones in use and Internet surfers," it said.

India has 243 million Internet users of which 35 million shop online. In China, the numbers were 649 million users and 361 million online shoppers.

"The data can prove that the number of Internet users is important for Internet economy, but is just one of the factors," it said.

"To develop, the Internet economy cannot build castles in the air or take off regardless of a frail economic foundation.

It depends on the maturity of the market economy and the development of other sectors like business, finance, logistics, transport, manufacturing, Internet infrastructure and public education," it added.


Somebody call the waaaaaambulance :mrgreen: :mrgreen: :mrgreen:

Bl00dy 50 cent'ers

panduranghari
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3751
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby panduranghari » 08 Oct 2015 15:56

Suraj wrote:It's not the methodology that's the issue, but the lack of backtested history correlating the data to other macroeconomic numbers. It can't be fixed by anything except a longer history.


At least the GOI has started doing this! It took us so long to do something this easy. The issue might also be down to the absence of an organisation like Nielson, TNS which is rooted in India who can do such exercise regularly. If you listen to the talks by McKinsey institute on youtube, they put so much emphasis on data to help make those decisions. And in one of the talks they were talking about leadership- And what makes the difference in the long term. Its not just what qualifications a leader has but also who the leader is that makes the difference.

I have wondered why has the Indian statistical institute not morphed into something more or why the graduates from ISI not gone to develop such data mining companies?

Chandragupta
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3469
Joined: 07 Dec 2008 15:26
Location: Kingdom of My Fair Lady

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Chandragupta » 08 Oct 2015 16:12

Point to note is that it is due to cheap Chinese hardware that has somewhat fuelled Indian internet penetration.

Arjun
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4264
Joined: 21 Oct 2008 01:52

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Arjun » 08 Oct 2015 17:08

....and cheap Indian software talent that has somewhat fuelled the global Tech boom.

Hari Seldon
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9215
Joined: 27 Jul 2009 12:47
Location: University of Trantor

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Hari Seldon » 08 Oct 2015 18:35

Re the Chinese rag's rant that India isn't even where China was 5 years ago... I'd say those are the facts. However, the facts also say that in terms of growth rates, China's best days are behind them and ours are on their way. Only.

Viv S
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5304
Joined: 03 Jan 2010 00:46

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Viv S » 08 Oct 2015 20:36

Do we have a thread for climate change where I can cross post this. Very interesting analytical piece in this week's Economist.
_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


India and the environment

Catching up with China

The prime minister wants India to grow as fast over the next 20 years as China has over the past 20. Does that mean Chinese levels of pollution?

Oct 10th 2015 | BANGALORE | From the print edition

Image


EVERY so often a country comes along whose economic transformation has a vast impact on the world’s climate system. For the past generation that country has been China. Next it will be India.

Given India’s size and population (1.3 billion), its emissions of carbon dioxide are in relative terms still tiny. At 1.6 tonnes of carbon per person each year, they are roughly the same as China’s per-head emissions in 1980, when that country dived into economic reforms. Now India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi, wants to emulate China’s sizzling growth. He has set India a target of expanding GDP by 8% a year. If it comes close to meeting that target, emissions will soar, just as China’s have done. Today, Chinese emissions per head are four times those in India.

Government planners think that, with economic growth of 8-9%, India’s total emissions of carbon dioxide would more than triple by 2030, from 1.7 billion tonnes in 2010 to 5.3 billion tonnes. Per-head emissions would increase to 3.6 tonnes. And that assumes a fair amount of energy savings. If India were to use the same amount of energy per unit of GDP in 2030 as it does now, then emissions would top 6 billion tonnes by 2030. India is on the way to becoming the biggest contributor to increases in greenhouse gases within 15 years—a powerful reason for caring about its progress on environmental matters.

On October 1st Mr Modi’s government filed its emissions plans in advance of a UN climate conference to take place in Paris in November. Unlike most other big countries, India refused to set a date at which the absolute amount of carbon it pumps out would peak and start to fall. Instead it promised that its carbon intensity—that is, carbon emissions per unit of GDP—would fall by a third before 2030.


Image


By setting a relative rather than an absolute target, India has come in for criticism. That is unfair, for to cap emissions would be to deny many Indians the chance to better their hard lives. The country has more poor people than anywhere else in the world: 230m living on $1.90 a day or less—the World Bank’s definition of extreme poverty. Almost half of rural households, or 250m-300m people, have no electricity. For the poor, growth is essential—and carbon comes with it.

Yet to accept that is not to give up on curbing emissions. India has huge potential to change its trajectory. To put this in context, consider that plans announced by Barack Obama’s administration would cut American emissions by 26-28% by 2025, or just under 2 billion tonnes of carbon a year. By contrast, the difference between a good and a bad outcome in India over the same period, depending on whether good policies are adopted or not, would amount to almost 3 billion tonnes. In other words, India could do more good for the climate, as well as more harm, than most.

If there is reason to be optimistic, it is that the environment matters to Indians themselves. Thirteen of the world’s 20 most-polluted cities are in the subcontinent. Smoke from cooking with wood or dung in Indian homes may be responsible for 500,000 early deaths a year, mostly of women and children. Climate change could do grave harm to India. Some two-thirds of its agriculture depends on the monsoon, which may become less reliable as a result of global warming. Some Himalayan glaciers are retreating, sending less water to rivers that feed hundreds of millions of people downstream. A quarter of Indians live near coasts that are vulnerable to sea-level rises. Many countries suffer one or more of these problems. Few have all of them. So while Indians need growth, they cannot ignore the consequences of it.

Given the environmental pressures, gloom is not hard to find. Jairam Ramesh, environment minister in the previous Congress-led government, shakes his head as he reflects on the near-total local opposition to a plan to protect the Western Ghats, a mountain range that is one of the world’s most biologically diverse regions. “We are losing the battle of ideas,” he says. Although tree plantations are growing in India, old-growth forests are still shrinking. Pressure to cut down more trees will increase because most of India’s untapped coal reserves are underneath its forests. Coal accounts for more than half of India’s power generation—and India plans to double coal output by 2020.

As for water, another crucial environmental resource, for the moment India is one of the lucky large developing countries with adequate supplies. But according to a study in 2013 by two UN agencies, it will go from having 1,800 cubic metres of water per person per year in 2001 to only 1,340 cubic metres in 2025—and little more than 1,000 cubic metres per head by 2050, which is the international definition of water scarcity.

As if all that were not enough, Mr Modi came to power in 2014 vowing to sweep aside regulatory obstacles to growth (including, by implication, environmental regulations). He vowed to expand a manufacturing sector which, at 17% of GDP, is half the relative size of China’s. Factories pollute more than services do.

If India faces a trade-off between growth and greenery, then the only likely outcome is that growth wins. Yet it is not a simple swap. Rather, the government has multiple objectives, and this multiplicity makes pro-environment policies more likely to stick.

To see how, look at energy. The government has four main goals beyond increasing power to cities and industry. First, it wants to bring electricity to those without it. Total electricity production has risen sharply in recent years, but the number of people without power has fallen only slowly. Something needs to change.

Next, India wants to improve its energy security by buying less from abroad. At the moment, the country spends about half its foreign-exchange earnings on fuel imports, an unusually high share. Though the world’s third-largest coal producer, India imports a fifth of its coal because domestic mines cannot keep pace. And it imports four-fifths of its oil. That leaves the country vulnerable to oil shocks, even if right now it is a beneficiary of cheaper supplies.

Third, with 10m-12m young Indians entering the labour market each year, the country needs jobs, and factories without power are no way to create them. And lastly India needs to reform the inefficient electricity-distribution system. Blackouts and brownouts are rife, and almost all the state utilities are bankrupt.

India needs to do all these things regardless of environmental considerations. But research by the Centre for the Study of Science, Technology and Policy (C-STEP), a think-tank in Bangalore, suggests that the energy mix you get if you try to improve access, security and so on is similar to what you get if you just concentrate on cutting carbon and preventing deforestation. In other words, the trade-off between doing the right thing for the economy and the right thing for the environment is not as stark as it looks.

Again, the energy sector shows why. Given the atrocious quality of the electricity grid, the quickest way to improve energy access is to supply power away from the grid through “distributed energy”—things like solar panels on houses or a micro-grid for a particular village linked, say, to a wind turbine. Distributed energy can use various sources of power, but renewable energy is particularly suited to it. Providing villages with reliable energy would allow families to switch from burning wood and dung to electric stoves, saving many of the lives now cut short by filthy air.


Image


Solar and wind power are domestic energy supplies, so they help conserve foreign exchange. Import substitution is usually a bad idea, because it keeps prices high and makes producers lazy. But in many parts of the country solar and wind are competitive on price. Electricity from power stations that run on imported coal costs about 6 rupees (9 cents) per kilowatt-hour. In Karnataka state, in the south, new providers of solar power are selling it for 5.5 rupees per kilowatt-hour, while wind costs about 6 rupees per kilowatt-hour. The solar business also provides jobs, typically more than from generating power through burning fossil fuels. Arunabha Ghosh of the Council on Energy, Environment and Water, a think-tank in Delhi, the capital, reckons that building 100 gigawatts of solar capacity would produce 1m jobs, albeit most of them short-term.

Lastly, alternative forms of energy might even help solve those problems of the grid which have their roots in India’s unwise decision to supply farmers with free electricity to pump water for irrigation. A huge lobby for subsidised power exists as a consequence, along with neglect of the electricity infrastructure, the beggaring of utility companies, which lost a staggering $300 billion in 2012, and a catastrophic overuse of water for farming. Because pumping water is in effect free, farmers are using groundwater faster than it can be replenished. In north-west India states are withdrawing up to nearly three times more water from aquifers than is being recharged by rains. The perversities of the power sector damage many parts of economy. So expanding solar and wind power could help with a range of things that have little to do with the environment but are essential for other reasons. That is the main justification for thinking greenery can take off even in a country that is trying to grow as fast as it can.

But the big questions are whether India’s environmental policies are the right ones and whether they will be overwhelmed by the demands of growth. The government’s signature policies are a huge expansion in solar and wind power, a sketchy “100 smart cities” plan to improve urban design and infrastructure, and a “clean-up India” campaign which includes everything from better waste management to building over 100m lavatories (about half of Indians defecate in the open—an environmental crisis in its own right, since it causes a panoply of diseases).

Soon after coming to office, Mr Modi promised to increase renewable energy more than fivefold by 2022. This would require doubling solar capacity every 18 months for the next seven years and cost about $100 billion. At a big conference on renewable energy earlier this year, investors said they would be happy to build all that and more, but they made financial commitments to less than a third of their proposals. Mr Modi’s plan would save perhaps 170m tonnes of carbon a year compared with adding the same amount of power using the current energy mix. At about 3% of emissions forecast for 2030, that is something, but not a huge amount.

More important are a number of actions that usually get short shrift when talking about climate policies. A study by the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory at the University of California calculates that if India switched to using the most efficient air conditioners, with the least-polluting refrigerants, it would save over 300m tonnes of carbon a year compared with expanding sales of current air conditioners—twice as much as the savings from solar power. India’s programme to subsidise the replacement of 400m cheap incandescent light bulbs with dearer LED ones would save 6,000 megawatts of installed capacity—equivalent to the entire electricity-generating capacity of Nigeria.


Image
And now they can do their homework, too


As for urbanisation, India has a “last mover” advantage. Perhaps seven-tenths of the urban infrastructure that it will need in 2030—such as roads, buildings and sewers—has yet to be built. In the meantime, India can learn from the lessons of others as they grow. Building compact cities with efficient transport systems and non-wasteful buildings would go a long way to slowing the rise of emissions.

Greenish India

So how much would all that achieve? Using varying assumptions about future policies and actions, five Indian forecasting groups predicted that emissions in 2030 could be between 3 billion tonnes and 5 billion tonnes a year, compared with a range of 4 billion tonnes to 5.5 billion tonnes on current trends. It is a significant difference, but not a huge one. According to C-STEP, the think-tank in Bangalore, it would be possible to cut emissions by a further 20-30% through more drastic actions, such as having four-fifths of lighting from LED bulbs by 2030 and sending half of all freight by rail instead of road rather than 39%, as is planned. That really might help India avoid the pattern of “grow first, clean up later”.

India has shown that it can enact reforms that have a big environmental impact. In the past two years, for example, it has removed a subsidy on diesel consumption (which subsidised carbon), and replaced subsidised liquefied natural gas with a cash payment for the poor, encouraging people to use gas less wastefully.

India’s emissions are still too modest for it to rival China anytime soon. Modest, too, are its manufacturing sector and middle class, both big polluters. As always, India will go its own sweet way. But it could do more to make that way greener.

From the print edition: Asia

Kakkaji
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3223
Joined: 23 Oct 2002 11:31

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Kakkaji » 08 Oct 2015 23:04

News fit for the Achievements thread?

Number of National Pension Scheme, Atal Pension Yojna subscribers crosses 1 crore mark: FinMin

The number of subscribers under National Pension Scheme and Atal Pension Yojna has crossed one crore mark while total assets under management have soared to Rs 1 lakh crore.

saumitra_j
BRFite
Posts: 334
Joined: 24 Dec 2005 17:13
Location: Pune, India

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby saumitra_j » 09 Oct 2015 07:03

A very good interview with Nitin Gadkari, has lots of data to track: Link

I am quoting some excerpts:

After roads, the ports sector has now shown some signs of revival. Can you talk about it?
For the first time all our ports and corporations are in profit. The combined profit will be around Rs 4,000 crore. Under the Sagarmala project, within five years, we'll completely modernise all our ports. The focus is on port-led development. We'll also be generating around 200 megawatts of green energy at our ports. There's a proposal to set up green smart cities on Paradip and ..

You have sets targets for the ministry.. What targets have you set for yourself? What will you consider as being successful?
I want to give employment to 50 lakh people through my sector. In inland waterways, shipping and roads we have huge opportunity. We have around 1.8 lakh seafarers, which is 8 per cent of the global number. We want to increase it to 10 per cent. I'm focusing on environment friendly development of roads sector.

Also tells us how difficult it is for the GOI to attract lateral talent given GOI constraints:
Just to know the trends in private sector, I asked a top executive about his salary. He told me he was drawing Rs 16 crore a year. Here, in government, we can't pay more than Rs 30-40 lakhs :shock: . So, I tried convincing him that you should do this for your country. He said he would come back after discussing it with his wife.
:rotfl: SHQs rule everywhere

Singha
BRF Oldie
Posts: 66601
Joined: 13 Aug 2004 19:42
Location: the grasshopper lies heavy

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Singha » 09 Oct 2015 07:33

thats because men do not spend much except on booze. its women who decide the level of lifestyle a family leads => expense levels and savings levels.

chaanakya
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9516
Joined: 09 Jan 2010 13:30

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby chaanakya » 09 Oct 2015 08:58

After roads, the ports sector has now shown some signs of revival. Can you talk about it?
For the first time all our ports and corporations are in profit. The combined profit will be around Rs 4,000 crore. Under the Sagarmala project, within five years, we'll completely modernise all our ports. The focus is on port-led development. We'll also be generating around 200 megawatts of green energy at our ports. There's a proposal to set up green smart cities on Paradip and ..


This gave me one thought, unworkable or idiotic may be, but worth looking at if we are thinking of Sagarmala and River Transport ( National Waterways) and Linking of Rivers. We all know Godavari rises in Nasik area and empties in Bay of Bengal. How difficult it would be to connect JNLPT or NaVi Mumbai Port or some other port on Arabia sea ( west coat) to Godavari and make Godavari a river transportation Hub for ships crossing Malacca strait from Suez canal. It would cut the travel distance and time as well.

terrain would be one of the most formidable.And several locks would have to be built besides ensuring year long navigation channel with adequate water and draft for Malaccamax and Capesize/SuezMax ships.

Atri
BRF Oldie
Posts: 4156
Joined: 01 Feb 2009 21:07

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Atri » 09 Oct 2015 11:45

Deccan plateau is a huge table-land raised above sea-level by 400-500 meters Chanakya ji. What you say is geographically impossible. It is perhaps possible with Narmada and Tapi, but not Godavari or Krishna. If from central India, Narmada be linked to Vainganga which drains into Godavari in MH-TL border region, what you say can theoretically happen. not counting the money factor and other sociopolitical factors.

chaanakya
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9516
Joined: 09 Jan 2010 13:30

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby chaanakya » 09 Oct 2015 13:28

Atri ji. Between Godavari or Krishna, and Arabian sea we have formidable Western Ghat as you pointed out. It is less than 100 Km from Arabian sea. May be we can find some alternative route through valleys. Also as you pointed out we might be able to link narmada or Tapi with Godavari through vainganga or may be some other tributary of Godavari.

Money and socio political aspects will have to be taken into account. We have to see if it is financially viable.

A_Gupta
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11153
Joined: 23 Oct 2001 11:31
Contact:

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby A_Gupta » 09 Oct 2015 15:55

http://thebricspost.com/indias-car-sale ... september/
Car sales in India rose for the 11th month in a row in September, new industry data revealed on Friday.

Sales growth rose 9.5 per cent in September, with carmakers selling 169,590 cars in September, said the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM).

Total passenger vehicle sales rose 3.8 per cent from a year earlier to 232,167 vehicles in September.

JayS
Forum Moderator
Posts: 4076
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby JayS » 09 Oct 2015 17:57

chaanakya wrote:This gave me one thought, unworkable or idiotic may be, but worth looking at if we are thinking of Sagarmala and River Transport ( National Waterways) and Linking of Rivers. We all know Godavari rises in Nasik area and empties in Bay of Bengal. How difficult it would be to connect JNLPT or NaVi Mumbai Port or some other port on Arabia sea ( west coat) to Godavari and make Godavari a river transportation Hub for ships crossing Malacca strait from Suez canal. It would cut the travel distance and time as well.

terrain would be one of the most formidable.And several locks would have to be built besides ensuring year long navigation channel with adequate water and draft for Malaccamax and Capesize/SuezMax ships.


Apart from Western Ghat (Sahyadri) and 600mtr from MSL height of Nashik, as already pointed out by others., one more issue is Godavari is a small river until after it reaches almost the MH border with not so much water flowing in summer that could facilitate any meaningful cargo movement. Not even small boat could pass through some sections of Godavari which passes through Nashik, for in Summer there is hardly any water. Even for Kumbh/Ganesh Visarjan, they have to release water from dam.

Not sure about Narmada and other in that region, But Tapi has dried river bed in summer, with literally no water in some places.

(I remember to have read about one idea that was considered - building huge reservoir on the top of Sahyadri - (like Koyna dam) - fill that reservoir with water from the heavy rain that Konkan receives and in summer transfer that water with pipeline to Eastern part of MH. Guess even that was not feasible).

They could perhaps bring in ships inland from Bay of Bengal through the Godavari as much as possible. That point to West coast could be connected to dedicated Rail freight lines for domestic use at least if not for Int'l users.

chaitanya
BRFite
Posts: 179
Joined: 27 Sep 2002 11:31
Location: US
Contact:

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby chaitanya » 09 Oct 2015 20:10

A_Gupta wrote:http://thebricspost.com/indias-car-sales-rises-9-5-yoy-in-september/
Car sales in India rose for the 11th month in a row in September, new industry data revealed on Friday.

Sales growth rose 9.5 per cent in September, with carmakers selling 169,590 cars in September, said the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM).

Total passenger vehicle sales rose 3.8 per cent from a year earlier to 232,167 vehicles in September.



This seems to contradict the consumer confidence report I posted earlier, so maybe it is unreliable/psyops to make it look like India is not recovering under Modi

Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 12654
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 09 Oct 2015 20:51

India's farm growth in FY16 could be marginally better despite poor monsoon: CRISIL
India's agriculture growth in this financial year could be around 1.5 per cent, marginally better than 0.2 per cent of 2014-15, because of some support from the allied sectors of horticulture and livestock despite a poor monsoon, rating agency CRISIL said in a report released on Thursday.

"Agriculture GDP comprises crops (foodgrains and horticulture), livestock, forestry and logging, fishing and aquaculture. Past data show that growth in livestock, fishing and aquaculture categories has remained healthy at 5 to 5.5 per cent even in years of weak monsoon. These two sectors comprise nearly 27 per cent of the agriculture and allied sector GDP, and their growth rates could hold up this year too," the agency said in a report published today. It expected overall GDP in 2015-16 to be 7.4 per cent, as compared to 7.3 per cent in 2014-15.

Tax collection information suggests growing economic momentum:
Indirect tax collection up 35.8% in Apr-Sep period
Indirect tax collection was up 35.8% to over Rs 3.24 lakh crore in the first half of the current fiscal, reflecting growth in economic activity.

Indirect tax collection in the April-September of the last fiscal, 2014-15, was about Rs 2.38 lakh crore.

The growth rate in collection during the first half of 2015-16 is double the budget requirement of 18.8% for the full fiscal.

Bulk of the growth in the indirect taxes has been contributed by excise duty collection which grew 69.6% during the period, a Finance Ministry official told PTI.

Excise collection during April-September 2015-16 was over Rs 1.25 lakh crore, as against Rs 74,019 crore in the same period last fiscal.

Customs mop up grew 17.5% to over Rs 1.03 lakh crore during the six months.

Service tax revenue grew 24.3% to Rs 95,493 crore.

RBI's foreign exchange reserves rise by $827.4 mn
The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) foreign exchange reserves rose by $827.4 million for the week ending October 2 to $350.81 billion, shows data released on Friday.

Foreign currency assets, a key component of foreign exchange reserves, rose by $717.6 million to $327.30 billion.

During the week gold reserves stood at $18.15 billion after a rise of $116.5 million.

LTV has been raised to upto 90% for homes upto 30 lakh, from 20 lakh earlier:
Housing finance cos gain as much as 9.3% on RBI move
Shares of housing finance companies gained as much as 9.3 per cent after the RBI said that banks can now provide loans up to 90 per cent for properties that cost Rs 30 lakh or below.

Consequently, GIC Housing Finance surged 9.24 per cent, Dewan Housing Finance Corporation gained 4.68 per cent, LIC Housing Finance was up 3.95 per cent and Housing Development Finance Corporation rose by 1.57 per cent on BSE.

Earlier, the facility was available only in cases where the cost was up to Rs 20 lakh.

This will benefit those home seekers who plan to buy properties in the range of Rs 20-30 lakh.

The RBI's decision comes in the wake of all the major banks reducing interest rate on home loans.

A_Gupta
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11153
Joined: 23 Oct 2001 11:31
Contact:

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby A_Gupta » 09 Oct 2015 20:52

^^^ Quite possible.
Dated Oct 6:
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ind ... 242829.cms
"Consumer durable companies like LG, Samsung eye 30% sales growth on festive demand"

Vriksh
BRFite
Posts: 406
Joined: 27 Apr 2003 11:31

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Vriksh » 10 Oct 2015 18:16

I had a vision of contour ringing with canals western ghats every delta_z= 100m or 50m and connecting each contour with each other via inverted siphons and finally transfer the water captured to the rain shadow Deccan plateau generating power where ever possible.

Supratik
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6167
Joined: 09 Nov 2005 10:21
Location: USA

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Supratik » 11 Oct 2015 17:03

2 million consumers have given up LPG subsidy till Aug, 2015.

Kakkaji
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3223
Joined: 23 Oct 2002 11:31

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Kakkaji » 12 Oct 2015 04:23

Mineral auctions on way

New Delhi, Oct. 11: The Centre is set to start the auction of minerals other than coal next month.

About 71 mines will be put up for bidding on behalf of the states, with 20 iron ore blocks in Karnataka, shut down on court orders, part of the exercise.

Top officials said state-run Mecon had surveyed the mines and ruled out auctions in about a score of them as these had land acquisition issues or were in areas affected by militant activities.

The government expects to auction around 200 mines on behalf of the states in at least two phases. Top steel makers, such as Tata Steel, JSW and Essar, can be expected to bid for the mines as also aluminium manufacturers such as Vedanta and Hindalco.

NRao
BRF Oldie
Posts: 16238
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Illini Nation

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby NRao » 12 Oct 2015 04:45

This seems to contradict the consumer confidence report I posted earlier, so maybe it is unreliable/psyops to make it look like India is not recovering under Modi


Def of "Consumer confidence":

Consumer confidence is an economic indicator which measures the degree of optimism that consumers feel about the overall state of the economy and their personal financial situation.


Increase in sales of autos are related to something the RBI did (cut rates).

Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 12654
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 12 Oct 2015 07:27

The RBI cut rates on Sept 29. Too late to do anything for consumer goods data for September, since the lower rates took a couple of days to be passed on . Rising car sales over several are a sign of growing domestic consumer confidence.

Both cars and commercial vehicles have registered steady gains this year: SIAM October release
Almost 10% growth in car sales between April-September, and >7% growth in CV sales. The first is a proxy for consumer demand, and the second is a proxy for industrial and infrastructural activity.

Gus
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8214
Joined: 07 May 2005 02:30

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Gus » 12 Oct 2015 08:51

CV are a very good indicator of confidence, especially HCV.

These are typically bought when orders are picking up and truck owners feel that the trend would keep up, considering the risk of taking a debt of several lacs on top of existing debt

kmkraoind
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3908
Joined: 27 Jun 2008 00:24

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby kmkraoind » 12 Oct 2015 11:42

Skeletons tumble out of Mallya closet: Kingfisher diverted bank loans to tax havens

The material recovered during searches on Saturday indicated that the airlines, which stopped flights in October 2012, has allegedly diverted part of loans taken from 11 nationalised banks, with total exposure of Rs 4,000 crore, to tax haven countries for different purposes not specified in loan applications, sources claimed.
........
The consortium of 17 banks had an outstanding of over Rs 7,000 crore on loans to Kingfisher with State Bank of India having the highest exposure of Rs 1,600 crore.


Its an unforgivable crime. If banks declare NPAs, its effects ever naive bank savers who did not indulge in any sort of financial risky behavior. Congi years are heyday for all types of scamstars with big gravy trains doling out a part of loot generously to all players.

panduranghari
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3751
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby panduranghari » 12 Oct 2015 11:57

Suraj wrote:The RBI cut rates on Sept 29. Too late to do anything for consumer goods data for September, since the lower rates took a couple of days to be passed on . Rising car sales over several are a sign of growing domestic consumer confidence.


Suraj saar,
were the rate cuts for consumer confidence concerns or for liquidity concerns? I think for the later than the former. Though you could argue for both. But in your opinion, what were they for?

Javee
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2377
Joined: 13 Jan 2003 12:31
Location: NJ

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Javee » 12 Oct 2015 16:48

Not sure if this report has been posted before, lots of information to glean,

http://www.niua.org/sites/all/files/cites_for_all.pdf

vivek.rao
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3775
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby vivek.rao » 12 Oct 2015 19:34

http://netindian.in/news/2015/10/12/000 ... ugust-2015
India's industrial production grows by 6.4% in August 2015

India's industrial production grew by 6.4% in August 2015, as compared to the same month of last year, up from 4.2 percent in the previous month, an official statement said here today.

The Quick Estimates of Index of Industrial Production (IIP) with base 2004-05 for August 2015, released by the Central Statistics Office of the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation here, said the general index for the month stood at 176.9.

The cumulative growth for the period April-August 2015-16 over the corresponding period of the previous year stood at 4.1%, it said.

vivek.rao
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3775
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby vivek.rao » 12 Oct 2015 20:08

Image

Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 12654
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 12 Oct 2015 21:02

panduranghari wrote:Suraj saar,
were the rate cuts for consumer confidence concerns or for liquidity concerns? I think for the later than the former. Though you could argue for both. But in your opinion, what were they for?

Rajan isn't really the type to make his thinking clear. Unlike the Fed meetings, no minutes are released, and even his deputies are not consulted, something the new interest rate panel will fix. At least half his rate policy moves were not anticipated. In spring, he cut rates over a weekend. At the end of september, he cut rates by 50bps despite 30% of the analysts betting on no rate cut, and the rest betting on only 25bps. It's hard to parse his explanations, because they're not exceptional - the conditions he claims are the reasons for his action have been true before and since, so there's no explanation of why the rate cut didn't come sooner, or later. But yes I would agree that he feels inflation drivers are weak, even though inflation is expected to rise in the coming months as the base effect that was causing reduced y-o-y inflation numbers is due to recede.

Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 12654
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 12 Oct 2015 21:21

vivek.rao wrote:http://netindian.in/news/2015/10/12/00035325/indias-industrial-production-grows-64-august-2015
India's industrial production grows by 6.4% in August 2015

India's industrial production grew by 6.4% in August 2015, as compared to the same month of last year, up from 4.2 percent in the previous month, an official statement said here today.

The cumulative growth for the period April-August 2015-16 over the corresponding period of the previous year stood at 4.1%, it said.

Successive months of high IIP growth is a sign of building industrial growth momentum. So far it reads:
* 4.4% in June (after between 2.5-3% growth in the previous 3 consecutive months)
* 4.1% in July
* 6.4% in August

September 2014 reported 2.5% growth, and October 2014 was -2.7% , which suggests two weak bases for the next two months, that may further increase September/October 2015 IIP figures. Four consecutive months of IIP averaging over 5% would strongly point towards an industrial recovery gaining steam; so far there have been several blips where IIP grows >4% one month, then falls to ~2% next month. But the past three months have all registered >4% growth, with a rising trend:
Image
Between mid 2011 and early 2014 the IIP figures have been treading water, between either side of 0%, with practically every 2nd or 3rd month reporting <0% growth . Since 2014 and in particular early 2015, there's a clear upward trend. The momentum takes time to establish itself. Nevertheless, 6.4% IIP growth in August is the highest monthly growth since that 1-month blip in 2012, and before that, the fast industrial growth until the slowdown in 2011.

Hari Seldon
BRF Oldie
Posts: 9215
Joined: 27 Jul 2009 12:47
Location: University of Trantor

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Hari Seldon » 13 Oct 2015 04:57

WSJ checks out Modi's recent 11-point list on what his govt has done so far to raise India's position on the ease-of-doing-biz index. Happy to see, many of the ponts check out.

http://blogs.wsj.com/indiarealtime/2015 ... port-card/

Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 12654
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 13 Oct 2015 05:03

More coverage on IIP:
Industrial growth soars to 3-yr high of 6.4% in Aug
In the first two months of the second quarter, IIP rose at an average of 5.2 per cent. In the first quarter, industrial growth in volume terms had stood at 3.3 per cent.

All the three broad segments — manufacturing, mining and electricity — posted higher rate of growth in August compared to July. Because of this, industrial growth rose 4.1 per cent in the first five months of the current financial year against three per cent in the same month of the previous year.

While manufacturing growth climbed to 6.9 per cent in August from -1.1 per cent a year ago, mining saw an expansion of 3.8 per cent against 1.2 per cent and electricity recorded 5.6 per cent growth against 12.9 per cent in the year-ago period.

Although base effect resulted in a spurt in manufacturing and mining as the former contracted and the latter expanded only 1.2 per cent in August 2014, electricity managed to grow at a reasonable rate despite a huge growth in the year-ago period.

In terms of use-based category, capital and consumer durable goods pushed up industrial production. While capital goods rose 21.8 per cent in August against 10.6 per cent in the previous month, consumer durables posted 17 per cent growth against 10.3 per cent.

“We suspect that the growth in consumer durables is also coming on the back of some pick up in urban consumption levels as already being shown by auto sales numbers,” said Rishi Shah, economist, Deloitte India.

Going forward, Aditi Nayar, senior economist with ICRA, said inventory build-up ahead of the festive season should provide some sequential boost to output of manufactured goods, particularly consumer durables, contributing to a pickup in IIP growth in September 2015 relative to the 2.6 per cent growth in September 2014.

August industrial output growth at 6.4%; retail inflation rises 4.41% in Sept
Industrial output growth beat expectations to surge 6.4% in August from a revised 4.1% in the month of July, while retail inflation moved up to 4.41% in September, compared with 3.74% in the previous month, according to government data released on Monday. Analysts were expecting industrial output growth at 4.8% in August, and 4.3% rise in retail inflation, according to a Thomson-Reuters poll.

Manufacturing grew 6.9% in August, compared with -1.1% a year before, while mining rose 3.8%, against 1.2% in the same period last year. Electricity generation picked up 5.6%, thanks to an unfavourable base (The segment grew 12.9% in August last year).

Food inflation — for long an irritant in the consumer price index (CPI)— stood at 3.88% in September, compared with 2.2% in August. This indicates that despite a deficient monsoon season, prices of most food items have not gone up, except for pulses which rose 23.65% in September, according to the data. However, some analysts point at a pick-up in core inflation.

Since global commodity prices are expected to remain low for some more time and food and fuel items comprise more than a half of the CPI basket, some analysts expect retail inflation to undershoot the Reserve Bank of India’s stated inflation target by January, even taking into account the fact that the favourable base effect might wane in the coming months. The central bank now expects retail inflation to touch 5.8% by January 2016. The RBI’s glide path calls for retail inflation under 5% by January 2017 and 4% by March 31, 2018.

vivek.rao
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3775
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby vivek.rao » 13 Oct 2015 05:22

Guys

Here is my blog

http://mysciencefinder.blogspot.com/201 ... -modi.html

Please give me any feed back.

I will address Modi's solutions in Part-2 and list out achievements

Suraj
Forum Moderator
Posts: 12654
Joined: 20 Jan 2002 12:31

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 13 Oct 2015 05:30

DBT plan saves Rs 14,672 cr on liquefied petroleum gas subsidy in a year: Govt
A total of Rs 14,672 crore is saved in LPG subsidy in a year as a result of direct benefit transfer, the government said on Monday.

A petroleum ministry statement said as on April 1, there were 181.9 million registered LPG consumers and 148.5 million active consumers, implying a gap of 33.4 million duplicate/fake/inactive accounts.

The duplicate/fake connections were blocked under the direct benefit transfer scheme, called PAHAL.

"If we take into account the quota of 12 cylinders per consumer and the average LPG subsidy of Rs 336 per cylinder for the year 2014-15, estimated savings in LPG subsidy due to the blocking of 3.34 crore accounts work out to Rs 14,672 crore, during that year," the ministry said in a statement.

August fiscal surplus may taper off from Oct, only to emerge towards FY16-end
The data for central finances during April-August showed a pleasant surprising anomaly that the month showed a fiscal surplus of Rs 15,808 crore. It was the first time in eight years that there was a fiscal surplus for the month of August. However, this certainly looks difficult to sustain from October till at least January. This is so because the government has started raising excise duty on petrol from October last year and that base effect will come to an end from that month this year.

Essentially, fiscal surplus is when revenues outstrip expenditures for any given period. For any financial year, the central government frontloads its expenditures and garners in a bulk of its tax revenue in the October-March period.

In fact, March is when we see a fiscal surplus most years, when spending is curtailed and additional revenue is garnered to meet strict fiscal deficit targets. For example, the fiscal surplus for March 2015 was Rs 1 lakh crore, much required since by February, the fiscal deficit had overshot its budgeted target for the year. For March 2014, the surplus was Rs 91,150 crore.

The reason why August saw a kind of surplus not usually experienced at that stage of a fiscal year is because the tax and non-tax numbers were very encouraging. April-August net tax revenue were 23 per cent of the full fiscal year target, compared with 19 per cent for the same period last year. Non-tax revenue was 61 per cent of the full year target compared with 40 per cent for April-August last financial year.

The mid year surplus is on account of buoyant tax and non-tax revenues. typically a surplus is only observed at the end of fiscal year, if at all. Strong revenues in turn suggests growing business activity.

GST still on track for 2016 rollout:
Centre circulates model GST laws among states
The Centre and states have completed the drafting of model Goods and Services Tax (GST) law as well as an integrated-GST (iGST) law, which will be put up in public domain by early November.

According to a government official, the Empowered Committee of state Finance Ministers is likely to meet this month to discuss the legislations — Central GST (CGST), State GST (SGST) and iGST.

“The model GST law and iGST law has been circulated among the states. The Empowered Committee would meet soon to discuss them,” a senior official told PTI.

The CGST will be framed based on the model GST law. Also the states will draft their own SGST based on the draft model law with minor variation incorporating state based exemption.

“Trade and Industry should also be a part of the law because ultimately they would pay the tax. Hence their views are essential. The drafts will be put up on website by first week of November,” the official added.

The drafts of the proposed legislations are based on three principles — definitional clarity, certainty in assessment and promoting ease of doing business, the official said.

Singha
BRF Oldie
Posts: 66601
Joined: 13 Aug 2004 19:42
Location: the grasshopper lies heavy

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Singha » 13 Oct 2015 06:12

diageo has been trying to oust the king of good times from his stake in UB group, without success so far.
he is a very chalak fellow. but might be easier now as the public is fed up with him and he might be too hot a potato for political parties to quietly prop up.

kmkraoind
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3908
Joined: 27 Jun 2008 00:24

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby kmkraoind » 13 Oct 2015 10:03

ONGC gas worth Rs 9000 crore may have flown to RIL

US-based consultant DeGolyer and MacNaughton (D&M) has, in a draft report submitted to the petroleum ministry stated that, at least, 9 billion cubic meters of natural gas valued at around Rs 8,600 crore may have flown from ONGC's idle Bay of Bengal fields to adjoining KG-D6 fields of Mukesh Ambani-led Reliance Industries Limited (RIL).

Senior officials confirmed that D&M on Friday submitted to the two firms as well as the directorate general of hydrocarbons (DGH) a draft report stating that ONGC's Godavari Block (known as G-4) is contiguous to RILoperated Block KG-DWN-98/3 (KG-D6).


Bade bhai should be remember one thing, he may be powerful and wealthy like Saatrajit, but he cant win over Lord Krushna (NaMo), better for him to raise white flag and join Indic forces.


Return to “Trash Can Archive”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 31 guests