Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

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Ananth
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Ananth »

Gus wrote:Trying to find that graph that showed the infra spending vs subsidy burden that was running bad in UPA2 and recovering now? help!
I found this:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CN5-9KjVAAAPu9h.png

I vaguely remember there was an article that talked about the above graph, but couldn't find it now.

from reddit
https://www.reddit.com/r/india/comments ... 1_to_2015/

another article with converged subsidy and capex %.
http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/201 ... icted.aspx
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Ananth »

Suresh S
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Suresh S »

Rahul M wrote:the most important scheme that the above article missed is the Jan Dhan, that's a true game changer even if only 50% of those with new a/c's are BPL.
Agree with u. Not much talked about but in my opinion this is the most important thing to happen since this govt came to power. Master stroke from the grand master Modi.This may also help in re-election of this BJP govt which is critical for India.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Ananth »

Odisha ratifies Constitution Amendment Bill for GST roll out
On Thursday, Odisha passed the Goods and Services Tax (GST) constitutional amendment bill — officially called, The Constitution (122nd Amendment) (GST) Bill, 2014. It became the 16th state to ratify it paving the way for presidential assent of the Bill, which is crucial for roll out of GST.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Suraj »

That was fast! I thought it would take a few months. It was just a couple of weeks ago that Assam was trying to be the first. Already, 16 states have ratified the amendment, solidifying the GST as a completed constitutional amendment. All that remains now is the money bill that sets the actual rates, and of course the infrastructure in the form of the GSTN to be up and running. There's nothing more left in the way of GST coming into force on April 1 2017 . It gives plenty of times for GoI - two fiscal years at least - to address any political issues with ensuring a smooth roll out and addressing temporary price fluctuations.

As for the Q1 GDP data, the 'growth has slowed!' argument is not really valid. Q1 is typically the smallest and slowest growing quarter, in most years. Q2 (Jul-Sep) is when the impact of monsoons start showing, and therefore is more volatile, but generally contributes more than Q1. Q3 and Q4 are correspondingly the largest in terms of annual GDP contribution. and their growth rates are impacted by the monsoon driven Q2 performance. During the high growth mid-2000s, 6.5-7.5% was the typical Q1 growth rate, and this time around we reported 7.1% for Q1, so it's still very much within acceptable range for a strong annual performance.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by ssundar »

snahata wrote:
Rahul M wrote:the most important scheme that the above article missed is the Jan Dhan, that's a true game changer even if only 50% of those with new a/c's are BPL.
Agree with u. Not much talked about but in my opinion this is the most important thing to happen since this govt came to power. Master stroke from the grand master Modi.This may also help in re-election of this BJP govt which is critical for India.
Two old school subsidy schemes are still alive and the plans to replace them don't seem to be very successful:

1. Fertilizer Subsidies - Manufacture-side urea subsidies should hopefully make way to a farmer-side subsidy for any fertilizer, with a special emphasis on organic, environment-friendly fertilizers.

2. Food Subsidies - Pilot projects in Chandigarh and Puduchery to try out DBT instead of ration shops have thrown some unsatisfactory results. Good news is that government is learning in these pilot projects and measuring success rates.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Suraj »

The efforts to remove the early subsidy systems will be an incremental process and not a quick wrench fix. That's how actual mature execution works. It is not very common for a proposed solution to work right off the bat. What is however common, is for the government to give up on it because it didn't work. That would be the bad thing to do. The good approach is to understand the pros and cons from pilot programs to then be expanded based on lessons learned.

The political viewpoint values the rhetorical argument 'they tried to fix this but have failed' but that's not what's we're interested in within this thread. The implementation hurdles for fertilizer DBT are several, and in effect you cannot simply liberalize one aspect without addressing others:
* lack of gas grid capacity causing the use of higher cost naphtha fuel, rendering losses under DBT
* price and distribution controls on fertilizer, which distorts pricing mechanisms

Similarly, there are several hurdles in the way of food subsidy and the current PDS system cannot be expected to simply transition seamlessly to market priced food paid out of subsidies paid into PMJDY accounts. It takes time - years of it - to understand issues at a pilot level and expand them, dealing with localized issues at times.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Prem »

F reserves now again on upward trend and 367 + billion now.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Yagnasri »

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 971784.cms?

So 18000 per month is the demand. This can be negotiated. But not others rubbish ideological issues by leftist unions which are the primary reason for today's agitation. toilet does not even mention those details of course.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Aditya_V »

Its muscle flexing by INC and Left and thier disruption attempt.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Yagnasri »

INC attached unions may not be as large as BMS or communists. In any event MQ and reds always together when it come to BJP.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Ananth »

Economy recovering but some concerns: T C A Anant
The fundamental difference between GDP and GVA is net indirect taxes (indirect taxes minus subsidies). The growth in indirect taxes is not as high but that was expected. The major change is indeed in subsidies, which have shown growth of 53 per centin Q1 vis-a-vis a decline of 26 per cent in the same quarter last year. The first quarter saw announcement of over 40 per centof budgeted subsidies, resulting in the divergence. This has happened in the past, too. Both tax revenue and government expenditure are subject to administrative decisions. The annual figures reflect overall economic activity but the quarterly disbursal is, to some extent, administrative.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by kvraghav »

There will be greater levels of automation if the wages go up. I at least know of one company which do not buy minor conveyor belts just because you can hire a person to move components in a cart for under 10k
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Yagnasri »

While no one is supporting exploitation of the poor, increasing the wages to unreasonable levels, is not going to help job creation.Communists are not interested in job creation and even allowing people to have some jobs; they are ok with closing units but not ok with agreeing to a lesser amount.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Rahul M »

automation is going up in India not because of high wage costs (it's not high in the first place) but because of extremely restrictive hire and fire laws that discourage hiring.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by ricky_v »

sir, is the gst constitutionally valid? because it's committee to decide upon the rate and act as the authority infringes on the sc's power of jurisdiction of arbitration between centre and states or between two and more states(barring water tribunals), while at the same time concentrating power at the centre instead of devolving it mandated as per the directive principles(though they are non enforceable)
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by disha »

Wasn't GST a constitutional amendment? Constitution is amended by directly elected representatives to Lok Sabha, indirect representatives of state in Rajya Sabha, most of the states themselves with their directly elected representatives. SC can now go and suck thumb.

And GST committee is a result of that constitutional amendment and the committee constitution is also the result of the above constitutional amendment. SC can now go and such thumb.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by SK Mody »

Last edited by SK Mody on 03 Sep 2016 23:59, edited 1 time in total.
Suraj
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Suraj »

ricky_v wrote:sir, is the gst constitutionally valid? because it's committee to decide upon the rate and act as the authority infringes on the sc's power of jurisdiction of arbitration between centre and states or between two and more states(barring water tribunals), while at the same time concentrating power at the centre instead of devolving it mandated as per the directive principles(though they are non enforceable)
I suggest you read the analysis of the bill in full here. There's no longer a GST bill. It's now officially the 122nd Constitutional Amendment, barring the near non-existent chance that the President will exercise a pocket veto.
The Constitution (122nd Amendment) (GST) Bill, 2014
You'd have to explain what you mean by 'is a constitutional amendment constitutionally valid ?' Assuming it's not, how does lawmaking work ? :)
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by ricky_v »

sir, the sc can nullify any amendment it deems to be in violation of the basic structure of the constitution. The separation of powers is considered to be a basic part of the constitution and the committee that would be formed would combine legislative,executive and judicial powers thus violating the basic structure.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Gus »

SC can only interpret constitution and amendment. They cannot review amendments.

Right?
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by disha »

ricky_v wrote:sir, the sc can nullify any amendment it deems to be in violation of the basic structure of the constitution. The separation of powers is considered to be a basic part of the constitution and the committee that would be formed would combine legislative,executive and judicial powers thus violating the basic structure.
With that logic., SC an as well countermand the election results. After all EC is a constitutional authority and SC can say that EC did not fulfill its constitutional role and countermand all elections and usurp power! But that is not gonna happen., since SC itself comes from constitution!

Constitution comes because of the power of people. What is Gana Tantra divas? For 3 years since independence - the GoI was running but transfer of power to the constitution happened on 26 Jan 1951 and India became Gana Tantra (republic is a loosy woosy word, while the word Gana Tantra is very very apt - Gana Tantra means people's mechanism or 'demo' cracy). That day, all the people of India via their representatives agreed that they will be ruled by the constitution. Only the assembly of directly and indirectly elected representatives of people could adapt the constitution and propose amendments to it.

SC can go suck thumb.

Of course any constitutional amendment can be challenged. SC can only observe how an amendment contravenes the basic constitution. For example, if LS/RS passes a constitutional amendment that all women must wear burkhas only, that is in direct contravention of the basic right under constitution and SC can only observe. They cannot do anything other than go and suck thumb.

GST just like EC and CAG and SC/HC/courts itself does not combine legislative, executive and judicial powers. If your point is that it does, then please point out where GST legislates and where it has judicial powers? GST deciding on a rate is not a legislative power but an executive power. That is why CONgoons wanted GST rate to be in constitution making it difficult to adjust going forward. Of course everybody saw through CONgoon game plan and did not put the rate in constitution.

ricky_v., this is a economy thread and there is a judiciary thread. Rest of your conversation IMHO should go into judiciary thread.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Vayutuvan »

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Last edited by Suraj on 04 Sep 2016 04:52, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Judiciary related queries can go in the judiciary thread.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Suraj »

ricky_v wrote:sir, the sc can nullify any amendment it deems to be in violation of the basic structure of the constitution. The separation of powers is considered to be a basic part of the constitution and the committee that would be formed would combine legislative,executive and judicial powers thus violating the basic structure.
Take a step back and think through what you just suggested. The national representatives of the country implement an amendment, approved by 2/3rds majority of both houses of parliament after almost 15 years of careful debate at the central and central-state level. Once passed, it has subsequently been ratified by more than half the state within a month . You are therefore implying that all these elected representatives at the central and state level have consciously chosen to pass an amendment against 'the basic structure of the constitution' ?

It's easy enough to come up with mental floss 'technically it's possible' arguments, but these have to be realistic. Since you assert it can be done, YOU prove that the GST amendment violates the basic structure of the constitution, such that your argument has standing. Its no longer upto others to prove otherwise. Otherwise 'technically possible' ideas include 'SC bench can ban all parties and elevate itself to grand poobahs of the country'.

Since you are new here, I also suggest that you keep discussions in this thread to economics alone. The political and judicial issues should be in the respective threads for them in GDF.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Rahul M »

ricky_v wrote:sir, is the gst constitutionally valid? because it's committee to decide upon the rate and act as the authority infringes on the sc's power of jurisdiction of arbitration between centre and states or between two and more states(barring water tribunals), while at the same time concentrating power at the centre instead of devolving it mandated as per the directive principles(though they are non enforceable)
the parliament has overriding power to create taxes and set rates, SC's arbitration power does not extend to deciding tax rates. in any case it is not infringed upon by the GST. it can still arbitrate on GST etc, although it is debatable if SC should poke its nose into executive sphere.

btw, if the suspension of SC's arbitration powers in case of inter state water disputes is not an infringement of its authority, why should it be an infringement in case of tax rates ? :wink:
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by pankajs »

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 987956.cms
Projects worth Rs 20 lakh crore set to get green light from key PMO group
NEW DELHI: Investments worth Rs 20 lakh crore, more than 500 projects - that's what a key group in the PMO is focussing on. The Project Monitoring Group (PMG) that works under the Prime Minister's Office has cleared 276 projects, stalled due to various reasons and accounting for investment of nearly Rs 10 lakh crore, in the last two years. Another 258 projects, with investment of more than Rs 10 lakh crore, will be cleared soon.

Roads, coal, power and railways comprise bulk of the projects while land and environment issues accounted for the majority of clearance hurdles. Roughly half the projects are public sector and the rest private plus PPP (public-private partnership).
Image
Since 80% of clearance problems are state-level, PMO has reduced the number of such clearances from 63 to 31, and has asked all states to digitise the process of applying for these clearances. States have an incentive to do this. "We have told states that digitisation of these clearances will help them obtain a better score on the index of Ease of Doing Business (EDB).
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Arjun »

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Singha »

http://money.cnn.com/2016/09/01/news/in ... index.html

india starts investor visa program like a GC but the terms look too high to me...and it should be made permanent GC.

10 cr + 10 jobs ought to be enough to get a GC. might encourage movement of money from SAARC region to here.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Yagnasri »

Arjun wrote:Raghuram Rajan's last hurrah: http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 012699.cms
If anyone has any doubts about R3, this alone will clear all those doubts. Seems Muslims has the "first right' of finance policy is the idea of R3.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Uttam »

RuPay debit cards to gain from small finance banks
According to the NPCI, RuPay card use at points of sale increased from 5.25 million transactions worth Rs 1,100 crore in 2014-15 to 18.62 million transactions worth Rs 2688 crore in April-July 2016.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Gus »

my understanding of islamic banks is - its just different verbiage. instead of interests, they collect 'service charges'.

i could care less about private islamic banks as long as govt does not step in with cash infusion at lower rates than similar institutions.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Ananth »

President's nod to Constitution Amendment Bill on GST
President Pranab Mukherjee on Thursday gave assent to the Constitution Amendment Bill on Goods and Services Tax (GST). The move, paved the way for setting up of the GST Council that will make recommendations on the model GST Bill, rates and other important aspects to roll out the new indirect tax regime targeted for April 1, 2017.

Now, a mere procedural formality is left to put it on the official gazette to make the Bill an Act
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Suraj »

Congratulations to the government for persevering so hard to bring the GST to fruition. The funny thing is that GoI moved with such rapidity on this recently that industry has been caught wrong footed, unprepared since they guessed that the GST would not come into force by Apr 1 2017, but which now seems all but certain. There's nothing more to do but pass a money bill setting the agreed upon rates.
India Inc unprepared for GST roll-out
Industry must gear up for GST era
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by chetak »

Suraj wrote:Congratulations to the government for persevering so hard to bring the GST to fruition. The funny thing is that GoI moved with such rapidity on this recently that industry has been caught wrong footed, unprepared since they guessed that the GST would not come into force by Apr 1 2017, but which now seems all but certain. There's nothing more to do but pass a money bill setting the agreed upon rates.
India Inc unprepared for GST roll-out
Industry must gear up for GST era
"money bill" will cause some very intense itching in congi nether regions 8)

even though this bill passes all set criteria for "money bill", the congis fought tooth and nail to try and get the BJP to pass it not as a money bill. Zero loss was very vociferous in his demands. Hope the mafia queen was suitably impressed.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Suraj »

Please, no more of the politics here.

The GST rate will be set by the GST council chaired by the FM, represented by the FMs of all states as well. The council has been notified now that the Bill has become an Act.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Lilo »

Gus wrote:my understanding of islamic banks is - its just different verbiage. instead of interests, they collect 'service charges'.

i could care less about private islamic banks as long as govt does not step in with cash infusion at lower rates than similar institutions.
Yes money has no religion.
More money invested or in circulation(& accounted for) in white economy only means less money available to fund nefarious activities of malsi mafia networks like smuggling,trafficking,funding etc.

Although its true that in Islamic banking, malsics will get one more differentiator to turn the nose up at the mainstream dutty kafirs ....but hey they are literally getting invested in Bharat via their money as the first step.Next is to skim the income their investment generates via TDS deductions & fund the Govt - there by leaving them nochoice but to turnout as tax paying citizens - instead of the freeloading tendencies bred into them via 60 years of votebank based mainority appeasements.

Net Net MAD should have forced RBI to allow Islamic banking (or whatever) in 2015 itself.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Gus »

Suraj , I think I mentioned before - my friend in customs was saying that folks were sent for training as soon as bill cleared RS.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Suraj »

The government is clearly getting things prepared on its end. It's probably the business community who will now need a boot to its posterior to rework its systems to be GST compliant by April 1 2017 .
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by chandrasekaran »

Hopefully GSTN will not hit a road block - Swamy has been raising a red flag on it for a while.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by RoyG »

Niti Aayog has constituted an expert panel on methanol and dimethyl ether. There are plans to substantially reduce our oil imports. I wonder if Dr. Surya Prakash is going to have any role.

The key is really powering heavy industrial systems and mass transit. If this can be done, it'll be a game changer.

RBI is going to full of smiles from now on. Hopefully, we'll see a day sooner or later where we quit buying american debt. No more routing payments through NYMEX.
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