Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

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vina
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby vina » 04 Oct 2017 11:09

Back from a weeklong trip to Kerala (drove through TN to get there and back). Took the BLR-MDU-Aryankavu Pass-Punalur-Kollam route, and stayed and travelled and lived in literally no name Podunk places in Kerala.

A couple of observations.

1. Every city /town, in TN (starting from Hosur, Dharmapuri,Krishnagiri, Salem, Namakkal, Karur, Dindigul, Madurai along the NH) to the offbeat from NH44, Rajapalayam, Srivilliputtur, Tenkasi etc, were pretty prosperous. No visible poverty and indeed looking pretty well decently and no stress. A far cry from these places I remember form 30 years ago.

2. In Kerala , Aryankavu (my great grandpa on mom's side used to live there, I have been to the Shasta temple there as a kid) Punalur, Kottarakara and other no name places too are absolutely fine. No poverty, no distress, clean, neat, people well dressed well fed.

3. Chavara and the fingers around the Ashtamudi lake and other places too, absolutely fine .

Indeed, the quality of life and infra in any part of Kerala, is streets ahead of anything here we have in Bangalore (in terms of traffic, pollution, water, power etc.etc). The only thing (not a small matter) that BLR has in abundance over Kerala is jobs.

If the rest of India reach Kerala and TN's HDI and living standards, we would be fine.

I have not travelled to MH and GJ. Uttarakahand, HP seemed "Kerala lite" to me (though probably not reaching Kerala and TN levels of infra, public services and HDI and wealth). Goa of course is great. MH from what I hear seems to be fine. GJ is something I cant understand with their poor HDI numbers.

The trouble is with North India and East India. It is the classic stereotypes of "Hell holes of Kaladhungi" , but then stereotypes have some basis in them. The key is as always governance and discipline and effectiveness of Govt.

For e.g., upto the 60s and 70s, Kerala and TN had similar per capita income and GDP as UP and other N.Indian states and Bengal was ahead. TN's HDI was actually similar as well (Kerala's was ahead).

Fast forward 30 years, and UP is just 1/3 of Kerala and TN's percapita GDP and a HDI that is severely behind. The N. Indian states somehow shot themeselves in the foot by their politics and instability, while the Jaya-KK duels in TN dont affect governance in the popular level.

Bengal was of course totalled by the Commies, while their counterparts in Kerala had some popular opposition that moderated their extreme idiocy.

Whatever said and done, TN and Kerala's focus of govt was in public goods and they have actually done pretty well on that. And now the private sector is stepping in too. For e.g., in Madurai, in the Trichy - Tirunelveli ring road , there is now a MASSIVE private sector hospital called "Velammal Hospital", that is BIGGER in size than the old Main Govt Hospital (it is what a 100 years old, the old Erskine Hospital renamed Rajaji Hospital in the early 80s?) and a whole host of hospitals and other stuff around. In fact, in a 10 Km radius around Madurai, it seems like there are more hospitals and colleges than you can possibly find in Patna !

I think there is some lessons to be learnt from TN and Kerala. Public goods matter, safety nets matter. Much as we dont like to admit it and indeed people sneered at it, people like Kamaraj, MGR, NTR and others who addressed hunger and nutrition deserve their laurels. They did right.

Consider this. TN can set up and run Amma Canteens in every nook and corner and run it brilliantly, while KA struggles to get a half a dozen working here. You get reliable bus service to every small village and hamlet along with a primary health centre and school in TN and KA, while people travel on roof tops of some ramshackle wrecks (from what I have seen in N. India) on barely motor able moonscapes in N. India. There is a lesson here I suppose.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Prasad » 04 Oct 2017 11:18

This probably goes into the healthcare thread but given its importance to the economy and following on from vina's post -
http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/5S922Wh ... cture.html
This is part of brookings' work on indian healthcare.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby putnanja » 04 Oct 2017 11:26

chetak wrote:
Rishirishi wrote:It is very hard to estimate such things. One has to consider issues like peek load, error corrections, population, etc. To fire the people may not be the answer if it was caused by a lot of unknown factors. Actually they will have learned some valuable lessons.





Our IT software and portal handles such peak loads without such issues and has been doing so for years.

We have the capability and the expertise to handle such high peak load portals.

We are slow to fix accountability and penalize incompetent high ranking staff who are more often than not, made heads of institutions because of who they are connected to and not because of what they bring to the table.



It is basic capacity planning that any hosting company/services does. It is not rocket science, and it's not like there was no data available. IT payers have been using online filing for long time now. It could be one starting point. They know roughly how many businesses are registered, how many pay VAT/other taxes etc. Some of them were already online. Plus in almost all parts of the world, IT/Tax filing peaks close to deadline. Once they have all these numbers, is it hard to determine how much capacity they need?

And some of them need to be planned at the start. How many front ends/backends are they using? How much traffic can the backend DBs support? How are the backends configured, how much traffic can each frontend handle, whats the ratio of frontend to backend servers, where are the bottlenecks, are they RAM/CPU/IO/DB read/writes limited ? This is just a short list, but these type of questions ticked early in the cycle influences the code architecture/design changes too.

Someone messed up pretty bad. I am surprised Infosys messed this up, given that they have been in this space for a long time, and some of them are basic requirement gatherings which they should be adept at.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby chetak » 04 Oct 2017 11:41

putnanja wrote:
chetak wrote:
Our IT software and portal handles such peak loads without such issues and has been doing so for years.

We have the capability and the expertise to handle such high peak load portals.

We are slow to fix accountability and penalize incompetent high ranking staff who are more often than not, made heads of institutions because of who they are connected to and not because of what they bring to the table.



It is basic capacity planning that any hosting company/services does. It is not rocket science, and it's not like there was no data available. IT payers have been using online filing for long time now. It could be one starting point. They know roughly how many businesses are registered, how many pay VAT/other taxes etc. Some of them were already online. Plus in almost all parts of the world, IT/Tax filing peaks close to deadline. Once they have all these numbers, is it hard to determine how much capacity they need?

And some of them need to be planned at the start. How many front ends/backends are they using? How much traffic can the backend DBs support? How are the backends configured, how much traffic can each frontend handle, whats the ratio of frontend to backend servers, where are the bottlenecks, are they RAM/CPU/IO/DB read/writes limited ? This is just a short list, but these type of questions ticked early in the cycle influences the code architecture/design changes too.

Someone messed up pretty bad. I am surprised Infosys messed this up, given that they have been in this space for a long time, and some of them are basic requirement gatherings which they should be adept at.


there are people at these companies who are needlessly verbose on every topic under the sun, whether connected to them or otherwise.

their silence is deafening.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Arjun » 04 Oct 2017 12:00

http://www.business-standard.com/articl ... 155_1.html

Its ridiculous the way these cretinous Western news agencies like Reuters bring a religion angle to every issue.... Yes sure abbatoirs are being shut down - but the government's clampdown had nothing to do with it being Muslim dominated.

Besides - the industry is probably Muslim dominated only in terms of the menial labourers with the required skillset in butchering (something most Hindus would feel queasy about). The bulk of the entrepreneurs leading the top firms are Hindu.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Yagnasri » 04 Oct 2017 12:30


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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Vidur » 04 Oct 2017 13:17

vina wrote:Back from a weeklong trip to Kerala (drove through TN to get there and back). Took the BLR-MDU-Aryankavu Pass-Punalur-Kollam route, and stayed and travelled and lived in literally no name Podunk places in Kerala.

A couple of observations.

1. Every city /town, in TN (starting from Hosur, Dharmapuri,Krishnagiri, Salem, Namakkal, Karur, Dindigul, Madurai along the NH) to the offbeat from NH44, Rajapalayam, Srivilliputtur, Tenkasi etc, were pretty prosperous. No visible poverty and indeed looking pretty well decently and no stress. A far cry from these places I remember form 30 years ago.

2. In Kerala , Aryankavu (my great grandpa on mom's side used to live there, I have been to the Shasta temple there as a kid) Punalur, Kottarakara and other no name places too are absolutely fine. No poverty, no distress, clean, neat, people well dressed well fed.

3. Chavara and the fingers around the Ashtamudi lake and other places too, absolutely fine .

Indeed, the quality of life and infra in any part of Kerala, is streets ahead of anything here we have in Bangalore (in terms of traffic, pollution, water, power etc.etc). The only thing (not a small matter) that BLR has in abundance over Kerala is jobs.

If the rest of India reach Kerala and TN's HDI and living standards, we would be fine.

I have not travelled to MH and GJ. Uttarakahand, HP seemed "Kerala lite" to me (though probably not reaching Kerala and TN levels of infra, public services and HDI and wealth). Goa of course is great. MH from what I hear seems to be fine. GJ is something I cant understand with their poor HDI numbers.

The trouble is with North India and East India. It is the classic stereotypes of "Hell holes of Kaladhungi" , but then stereotypes have some basis in them. The key is as always governance and discipline and effectiveness of Govt.

For e.g., upto the 60s and 70s, Kerala and TN had similar per capita income and GDP as UP and other N.Indian states and Bengal was ahead. TN's HDI was actually similar as well (Kerala's was ahead).

Fast forward 30 years, and UP is just 1/3 of Kerala and TN's percapita GDP and a HDI that is severely behind. The N. Indian states somehow shot themeselves in the foot by their politics and instability, while the Jaya-KK duels in TN dont affect governance in the popular level.

Bengal was of course totalled by the Commies, while their counterparts in Kerala had some popular opposition that moderated their extreme idiocy.

Whatever said and done, TN and Kerala's focus of govt was in public goods and they have actually done pretty well on that. And now the private sector is stepping in too. For e.g., in Madurai, in the Trichy - Tirunelveli ring road , there is now a MASSIVE private sector hospital called "Velammal Hospital", that is BIGGER in size than the old Main Govt Hospital (it is what a 100 years old, the old Erskine Hospital renamed Rajaji Hospital in the early 80s?) and a whole host of hospitals and other stuff around. In fact, in a 10 Km radius around Madurai, it seems like there are more hospitals and colleges than you can possibly find in Patna !

I think there is some lessons to be learnt from TN and Kerala. Public goods matter, safety nets matter. Much as we dont like to admit it and indeed people sneered at it, people like Kamaraj, MGR, NTR and others who addressed hunger and nutrition deserve their laurels. They did right.

Consider this. TN can set up and run Amma Canteens in every nook and corner and run it brilliantly, while KA struggles to get a half a dozen working here. You get reliable bus service to every small village and hamlet along with a primary health centre and school in TN and KA, while people travel on roof tops of some ramshackle wrecks (from what I have seen in N. India) on barely motor able moonscapes in N. India. There is a lesson here I suppose.


This is an interesting observation. I have run a district in a North fo Vindhyas state and would like to share some experiences and perspectives. I would very much welcome perspectives from South too. Will do this in a couple of days.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby vina » 04 Oct 2017 13:58

Deleted
Last edited by Suraj on 05 Oct 2017 19:45, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Political diatribe

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby vina » 04 Oct 2017 14:19

Dhanushkodi Journal

The last time I visited Rameshwaram was close 25 years ago and before that as a child with family. The scene was exactly as described here. Now with the changes mentioned, I would be very interested looking going there myself.

A Hyatt at Rameshwaram ? Who would have guessed about one even a decade ago ! If there is a Hyatt, the number of others from the bottom , right up to the tip of the Pyramid where the Hyatt is must be huge!

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Supratik » 04 Oct 2017 14:24

August GST collection nearly 94000 crores i.e. 15 billion dollars.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby vina » 04 Oct 2017 15:09

Hmm. Urjit Patel has bluntly stated the obvious. There is NO fiscal space (when you take the total central + state deficits together) for any stimulus!

If this isn't a blunt enough message to the Finance Ministry, I don't know what is.

However, I expect the clowns to do off balance sheet nonsense , pulling a leaf from the play book of the Kangress govts of old.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby vijayk » 04 Oct 2017 16:23

https://www.myind.net/Home/viewArticle/ ... ic-growth/

Effect of Reforms
The relation between the measures introduced by the government and the RBI to formalize the economy, reform the taxation system and to regulate lending practices have “fundamentally changed the way companies in India operate and will yield long-term benefits.” But this “fundamental change” which is very good for the long term also results in a painful adjustment period in the short term.

This is not confined to the GST roll-out and the demonetization, but also to several other necessary and painful reforms, many of which predate them. The Asset Quality Review (AQR), a special inspection conducted in 2015-16, took a detailed look at the loan portfolio of banks and resulted in an increase in the official non-performing loans NPL (Non-Performing Loan) ratio to almost 10%. Banks were forced to disclose NPLs adequately on their balance sheets. The AQR caused record losses to be recognized by several Banks. And as the article states: “This new wave of transparency, which was met with much opposition from the business community… has also contributed to a decline in bank lending to industry.” This is continuing as the RBI now requires banks to undertake periodic reviews with stringent guidelines on recognition and provisioning of NPAs (Non-Performing Assets). The check to the economy due to this is justified by precluding a more serious bust in the future by checking the underreporting of NPAs and evergreening of accounts by banks, often benefitting politically well-connected promoters. Also stated: companies “face significantly more stringent economic criteria to access bank funding than in the past , when loans were often provided more on the basis of political connections than business plans”, again forestalling short term exuberance for long term and sustainable benefits.

Another such measure is the Real Estate Regulation Act (RERA) which came into force on May 1, 2017, and has led to a short-term slowdown in the construction sector. But it regulates the sector for the first time, and will bring about the efficiency and transparency needed for sustainable growth, protect consumers, and provide fewer avenues for corruption.

These measures will inevitably lead to churn as unprofitable businesses, in a world where profitability cannot ensue from inefficiency, political connection or tax evasion, either go out of business or merge with better run concerns.

The GST has caused a shift in the Supply and Demand equilibrium of every item in the economy, and the equilibrium point on the Price-Quantity chart will be reached over the coming months causing inevitable friction. There is also a learning curve involved in the informal economy coming into the formal system.


It is curious that much of the adverse short-term effects of the reforms were anticipated prior to them being enacted, and indeed were seen as largely unavoidable, but the resulting slowdown is being treated as an aberrant phenomenon by the popular press.

A typical governance issue at companies ensues from CEOs who are under pressure to yield yearly results at the expense on longer term benefits, thus harming the company interests over the longer term. Similarly leaders in a democracy are under pressure to deliver within their term. This incentivizes their decisions even if the benefits prove transitory. But decisions regarding the future of a country will ideally have to consider a longer time horizon. It requires boldness and courage to jeopardize one’s prospects for the next term to make decisions beneficial to the country in the long term.
.
The key danger does not come from following through with these reforms. Instead it is this: We have a government led by someone who has expended his political capital and put his future on the line to clean up the system. While the GST is an important reform, globally governments that introduced it had to relinquish power from the short term effects and the election cycle. The danger is that the effect of the short term pain involved in the exercise could pose challenges to the present government in coming back in 2019. And the old ecosystem which supported, and is sponsored, by those who converted access and power into illegal gain could come back, undoing everything that would have been achieved.


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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby vijayk » 04 Oct 2017 16:32

Image
Image


Is this all part of event management too?
Last edited by vijayk on 04 Oct 2017 16:43, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby vijayk » 04 Oct 2017 16:34

vina wrote:
ShauryaT wrote:If there is one man in India who's advice should be acted upon by ANY government, it is Arun Shourie. May you live many more years and provide fearless critique of those in power and their follies.

Do not watch this for dissecting numbers. It is about credibility, predictability and the willingness to listen. This is what separates great leaders from failed ones. I wish this prime minister succeeds based on India's success.


Yes. Absolutely . A MUST WATCH interview. This really lays out the problem with the Modi Govt. It is like he put it a 2.5 man govt that is surrounded by brainless flunkeys and the net result is a total echo chamber.

And his advice on Mr. Modi not to rely on some low level "cunning" (he used the word cleverness) is very apt. I fear things are going to get worse from here. I had said it here before and Shourie mentioned it again. This is an "event management" govt. They are focused on headline and perception management and actually not delivering anything durable.

Watch global oil prices. That will make or break the economy here. I was hoping that finally we could insulate ourselves from the global commodity cycle and shocks and have sustained growth. But no, we are back to that same exposure and weakness again. The shock buffers are all gone. On top of that we have absolute igenues running the govt economy wise.


Prasanna Viswanathan‏
@prasannavishy

Shourie, Sinha etc. Surfeit of sourpusses who can't offer even a one coherent idea either in the realm of ideology or governance.



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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby TKiran » 04 Oct 2017 17:04

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=7280&p=2078524&hilit=Currency+demonetization#p2078524

This is what I said on 22 Nov 2016.

TKiran wrote:
Primus wrote:
Kiran Ji, 2 points.


Finally, it is unfair to expect the salaried class to subsidize the 'mom and pop' business owners for everything that they take for granted, as has been pointed out already. If they cannot be a productive part of the society then they cannot expect the society to be sympathetic to their plight when things go south.

BTW, even in the US, those small businesses that deal mostly in cash, are liable for and do pay all the other kinds of taxes that businesses incur, including the equivalent of ESI/PF and some others for their employees that are not applied in India. I do agree that the lack of corruption at grass-root level does help enormously.


Primus ji, you are missing the jungle for trees. In India, small business people provide the employment for almost 95% of the population. 5% are elites, most of the people in brf are in that category. This demonetization is not primarily intended to disrupt smaller businesses, but a collateral damage.

There's no mitigation to repair the collateral damage.

The focus should be to protect the small businesses, what I mean to say is that nobody should talk about taxing businesses, in fact, the government should say that nobody would be harassing the businesses, they are not our target. We have already achieved the target of

1. FICN has been rendered useless
2. Black money horders (big fishes such as politicians and baboons) lost their wealth

And no more objectives.

But I think a lot of posters want to add another objective

3. We will tax businesses, close all the loops.

The 3rd objective is a good one, if we have less population like in Australia or Canada, where the responsibility of generating employment opportunity rests with the governments.

Here in India, it's not practical with very high semi-skilled or unskilled workers which comprises 95% of the population. They all depend on cash for transactions. You can call it 1shade of black money or 2 shades, it's immaterial, they are not your target.

Added later.....

Gus wrote: ..for somebody who knows stuff, they ought to know .. especially brfites - that steps are being taken to move more into formal economy and tax evasion will no longer be tolerated.


Gus ji, you said it... You cannot employ 1crore people to produce 83 LCA's in HAL, where is the formal economy?

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby nam » 04 Oct 2017 17:19

vina wrote:Indeed, the quality of life and infra in any part of Kerala, is streets ahead of anything here we have in Bangalore (in terms of traffic, pollution, water, power etc.etc). The only thing (not a small matter) that BLR has in abundance over Kerala is jobs.

If the rest of India reach Kerala and TN's HDI and living standards, we would be fine.



The reason for Kerala's "high" HDI is because someone else is paying for it and it does not have to worry about the aftereffects.

While Bangalore is in horrible state, the town of Mangalore (probably the second richest in Karnataka) is a perfect mirror of what happens in Kerala. Highly educated population and pretty rich. However no local jobs what so ever. People work in Gulf, US, Bombay, Bangalore and pour their earning in this town.

It is a town full of parents, with kids working in other places!

So for no worthwhile economy, it is a clean city, concrete roads, high rises, people living in bunglows, no side effects of large population and rare to see a beggar on the street.

Bangalore with high level of economic activity faces the same issues as Mumbai.

So it would be a apple vs orange comparison.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby vijayk » 04 Oct 2017 17:54

^^ Totally agree

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby nandakumar » 04 Oct 2017 18:42

vina wrote:Back from a weeklong trip to Kerala (drove through TN to get there and back). Took the BLR-MDU-Aryankavu Pass-Punalur-Kollam route, and stayed and travelled and lived in literally no name Podunk places in Kerala.

A couple of observations.

1. Every city /town, in TN (starting from Hosur, Dharmapuri,Krishnagiri, Salem, Namakkal, Karur, Dindigul, Madurai along the NH) to the offbeat from NH44, Rajapalayam, Srivilliputtur, Tenkasi etc, were pretty prosperous. No visible poverty and indeed looking pretty well decently and no stress. A far cry from these places I remember form 30 years ago.

2. In Kerala , Aryankavu (my great grandpa on mom's side used to live there, I have been to the Shasta temple there as a kid) Punalur, Kottarakara and other no name places too are absolutely fine. No poverty, no distress, clean, neat, people well dressed well fed.

3. Chavara and the fingers around the Ashtamudi lake and other places too, absolutely fine .

Indeed, the quality of life and infra in any part of Kerala, is streets ahead of anything here we have in Bangalore (in terms of traffic, pollution, water, power etc.etc). The only thing (not a small matter) that BLR has in abundance over Kerala is jobs.

If the rest of India reach Kerala and TN's HDI and living standards, we would be fine.

I have not travelled to MH and GJ. Uttarakahand, HP seemed "Kerala lite" to me (though probably not reaching Kerala and TN levels of infra, public services and HDI and wealth). Goa of course is great. MH from what I hear seems to be fine. GJ is something I cant understand with their poor HDI numbers.

The trouble is with North India and East India. It is the classic stereotypes of "Hell holes of Kaladhungi" , but then stereotypes have some basis in them. The key is as always governance and discipline and effectiveness of Govt.

For e.g., upto the 60s and 70s, Kerala and TN had similar per capita income and GDP as UP and other N.Indian states and Bengal was ahead. TN's HDI was actually similar as well (Kerala's was ahead).

Fast forward 30 years, and UP is just 1/3 of Kerala and TN's percapita GDP and a HDI that is severely behind. The N. Indian states somehow shot themeselves in the foot by their politics and instability, while the Jaya-KK duels in TN dont affect governance in the popular level.

Bengal was of course totalled by the Commies, while their counterparts in Kerala had some popular opposition that moderated their extreme idiocy.

Whatever said and done, TN and Kerala's focus of govt was in public goods and they have actually done pretty well on that. And now the private sector is stepping in too. For e.g., in Madurai, in the Trichy - Tirunelveli ring road , there is now a MASSIVE private sector hospital called "Velammal Hospital", that is BIGGER in size than the old Main Govt Hospital (it is what a 100 years old, the old Erskine Hospital renamed Rajaji Hospital in the early 80s?) and a whole host of hospitals and other stuff around. In fact, in a 10 Km radius around Madurai, it seems like there are more hospitals and colleges than you can possibly find in Patna !

I think there is some lessons to be learnt from TN and Kerala. Public goods matter, safety nets matter. Much as we dont like to admit it and indeed people sneered at it, people like Kamaraj, MGR, NTR and others who addressed hunger and nutrition deserve their laurels. They did right.

Consider this. TN can set up and run Amma Canteens in every nook and corner and run it brilliantly, while KA struggles to get a half a dozen working here. You get reliable bus service to every small village and hamlet along with a primary health centre and school in TN and KA, while people travel on roof tops of some ramshackle wrecks (from what I have seen in N. India) on barely motor able moonscapes in N. India. There is a lesson here I suppose.

Vina
Don't know about Kerala but as far as Tamil Nadu is concerned, the bureaucracy is in reasonably good shape. The quality of delivery of public goods especially healthcare is very good. One data point. The infant mortality rate is now 19 per thousand. This is within spitting distance of Kerala's which is 14 per thousand. Politicians can be venal or honest. But if public administration is not committed to a modicum of delivery of public goods then there is not much that politicians can do.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby guru.shetty » 04 Oct 2017 20:05

While Bangalore is in horrible state, the town of Mangalore (probably the second richest in Karnataka) is a perfect mirror of what happens in Kerala. Highly educated population and pretty rich. However no local jobs what so ever. People work in Gulf, US, Bombay, Bangalore and pour their earning in this town.

It is a town full of parents, with kids working in other places!

So for no worthwhile economy, it is a clean city, concrete roads, high rises, people living in bunglows, no side effects of large population and rare to see a beggar on the street.


IMO, One of the reasons for Mangalore's current prosperity is because of the banking and healthcare industry. Canara Bank (Mangalore 1906), Karnataka Bank (Mangalore 1924), Vijaya Bank (Mangalore 1931); Corporation Bank (Udupi 1906) and Syndicate Bank (Udupi 1925) were established here. All of the banks initially exclusively hired locally generating huge employment and the locals eventually went on to establish chains across the country. They all got nationalized and now not in good shape. Manipal became the hospital city and has a good micro-economy around it. The local economy/education sector also produces a lot doctors and also has a bunch of medical and nursing colleges. It can partially be traced back to the matrilineal sub-cultures of the area (daughters get ancestral property instead of sons) which lead to women empowerment and smaller and educated families. Being educated a couple of generations earlier than the rest of the country also meant that people simply found easy pickings to establish businesses across the country - much of it hotel chains. It also did not help that Indira Gandhi's land redistribution act was implemented effectively here. So people that lost land had to move out for better pasture.

The city's roads are mostly good because they always win the best muncipal/city co-operations in the state and that is mainly because of less corruption.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby VinodTK » 04 Oct 2017 20:33

PM Modi slams critics, says GDP dipped to 5.7% or below 8 times under UPA
NEW DELHI: Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Wednesday made a strong defence of the economy+ and used growth numbers to prove that the country has taken great strides in the last three years of the NDA government.
Hitting out at critics of the government's economic policies, PM Modi pointed out that this wasn't the first time the country's GDP has dipped.
"During six years of the previous government, there were 8 instances when GDP was at or below 5.7 per cent. There were some quarters in which the growth rate plunged as low as 0.2 per cent," he said while addressing company secretaries at the inauguration of Golden Jubilee Year of ICSI.
The Prime Minister further said the country's financial difficulties had been compounded by the policy lapses of the erstwhile UPA regime.

"These slumps posed great danger to the economy, as at that time, India was struggling with higher inflation, higher current account deficit and higher fiscal deficit," he added.
In response to the opposition's charges of an economic crisis, PM Modi admitted that while there has been a slowdown in the current quarter, the government is already working to turn things around.
"After achieving average growth of 7.5 per cent over three years, we accept that growth rates came down in April-June, but the government is committed to reverse it. The steps being taken by the government will put the country in a new league of development," he assured.
Taking a dig at critics of his government's handling of the economy, PM Modi remarked, "There are some people who sleep well only after they spread a feeling of pessimism all around.
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Short video of PM's speech is embedded in the article

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby VinodTK » 04 Oct 2017 20:38

PM Modi assures economy on right track: Top quotes
* "Registration of 2.10 lakh companies out of 3 lakh suspicious firms identified post note ban has been cancelled."
* "This is the time of a big transformation, the importance of honest and transparent governance is being realized."
* "I will not let the present problems jeopardize the future of the country."
* "Fundamentals of Indian economy are strong; reform process will continue keeping financial stability in mind"
* "The government understands the value of your hard-earned money, our policies are focused at bettering the lives of the poor and middle class."
* "Demonetistaion was a great success. It has reduced cash to GDP ratio to 9%. Before November 8, 2016 it was 12%."
* "I have told the GST council to review the problems being faced by traders and we are willing to make changes as per the suggestions."
* "GDP growth dipped to 5.7% or below eight times during UPA regime when nation was faced with high inflation, CAD and fiscal deficit."
* "The dip in economic growth in one quarter has boosted pessimists; not first time growth has dipped to 5.7% in any quarter."
* "Double digit inflation has come down to less than 3%, CAD brought down to 2.5%, fiscal deficit reduced to 3.5%."
* "This government will maintain the country's financial stability. We will take all the needed steps for economic development."
* Your honest advice can make a big difference to the country's corporate governance, PM Modi tells company secretaries.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Subdas » 04 Oct 2017 20:41

One of the pet narrative is that demo killed the black , sorry , informal economy and they made it sound like the govt took away their money. On reality , it would kill those business that doesnot want to pay tax or engaged in dirty money. In either case u r corrupt and deserve to be shut down

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Subdas » 04 Oct 2017 20:47

Cash drives corruption. Demo is a big reform towards less cash and hence less corruption. MODIJI is on a clean india movement and the gargbages r yeling at top of their voice.as they donot want to route their transactions via the banking system.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby vina » 04 Oct 2017 21:27

guru.shetty wrote:IMO, One of the reasons for Mangalore's current prosperity is because of the banking and healthcare industry. Canara Bank (Mangalore 1906), Karnataka Bank (Mangalore 1924), Vijaya Bank (Mangalore 1931); Corporation Bank (Udupi 1906) and Syndicate Bank (Udupi 1925) were established here. All of the banks initially exclusively hired locally generating huge employment and the locals eventually went on to establish chains across the country. They all got nationalized and now not in good shape. Manipal became the hospital city and has a good micro-economy around it. The local economy/education sector also produces a lot doctors and also has a bunch of medical and nursing colleges. It can partially be traced back to the matrilineal sub-cultures of the area (daughters get ancestral property instead of sons) which lead to women empowerment and smaller and educated families. Being educated a couple of generations earlier than the rest of the country also meant that people simply found easy pickings to establish businesses across the country - much of it hotel chains. It also did not help that Indira Gandhi's land redistribution act was implemented effectively here. So people that lost land had to move out for better pasture.

The city's roads are mostly good because they always win the best muncipal/city co-operations in the state and that is mainly because of less corruption.


Couldnt agree more with all that is written here.

1. Kanara belt (both north and south) are highly entrepreneurial, with strong focus on education and like Kerala have a mobile population and have done well.
2. In fact, South Kanara feels very much like Kasaragod and the Kerala influence is very strong . The food , culture and even religious traditions wise (for e.g., the Kadri Manjunath temple had a very distinct Kerala look and feel to it, and also the Tantric based religious rites like Kerala) it feels more "Kerala" than the "Kannada" areas to the east of the ghats . Even the calendar (Solar) is more in common with Kerala and Tamil Nadu (Vishu for e.g.) than with the interiors.
3. Mangalore - Udipi belt will have Kerala like HDI and income (or better). Old Mysore areas too will be pretty decent. Karnataka numbers are brought down because of North Karnataka and the old Hyderabad Karnataka areas of the old Nizam dominion.

Again, pretty amazing how long history of good governance and social capital (health, education, infra etc .. South Canara was Madras Presidency & Old Mysore was Mysore Kingdom, an enlightened and well run welfare state for what like 200 years?), while areas with deficits in those things (like the old Nizam dominions under an exploitative and feudal Nizam) continues to lag.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby SBajwa » 04 Oct 2017 21:29

by Vina
The trouble is with North India and East India. It is the classic stereotypes of "Hell holes of Kaladhungi" , but then stereotypes have some basis in them. The key is as always governance and discipline and effectiveness of Govt.


Have you been to Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh and Himachal? The only poor people and beggers are from UP and Bihar. In fact all the low level jobs from electrician, plumbing, painters, sweepers, etc have been taken up by the people from UP and Bihar. Punjabis/Haryanis/Himachalis do not wish to work in menial jobs. Even the factories in Ludhiana and Jalandhar have all labor from UP and Bihar. Farmers in Punjab/Haryana many times do not reap their crop as there is not enough labor. Visit train stations and check out how many tractors with trolleys are there to lure labor as soon as they arrive from UP and Bihar. How about Gujarat? Have you visited Gujarat and MP cities like Indore, Bhopal lately?

The Indian poverty was created by British but they left behind their proxy aka Congress who alleviated it to commie levels of USSR & China., only realizing in 1991 by Narsimha Rao who freed the economy. Sonia through Manmohan came back and then again started the same policies of Nehru by giving money to people for digging holes (MNREGA). Modi is increasing economic activity by ten folds and on top he is hell bent upon a legitimate cashless economy. That is the right way!

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby vina » 04 Oct 2017 21:31

During six years of the previous government, there were 8 instances when GDP was at or below 5.7 per cent

The difference between the "new" CPI numbers and the old series is 2% . So 5.7 % per the new series == 3.7% in the old series.
Please ask Mr Modi, in how many instances did the GDP dip below 3.7% in the UPA years ? It surely wont be 8 times.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby SBajwa » 04 Oct 2017 21:32

This is mohali., Punjab side of Chandigarh

Last edited by SBajwa on 04 Oct 2017 21:39, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby SBajwa » 04 Oct 2017 21:39

Here you can see Chandigarh-Mohali from Air




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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby SBajwa » 04 Oct 2017 21:41

Since Chandigarh has PGI now there are many private hospitals the famous one is Fortis in mohali. In Fortis hospital we have foreigners coming to get their various surgeries.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Mort Walker » 04 Oct 2017 21:46

vina wrote:
During six years of the previous government, there were 8 instances when GDP was at or below 5.7 per cent

The difference between the "new" CPI numbers and the old series is 2% . So 5.7 % per the new series == 3.7% in the old series.
Please ask Mr Modi, in how many instances did the GDP dip below 3.7% in the UPA years ? It surely wont be 8 times.


You’re playing dirty pool. The base index is revised using an impartial analysis by the CSO. There are legitimate criticisms of the govt. but this isn’t one them. You’re doing a disservice to your arguments.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby SBajwa » 04 Oct 2017 21:48

by Vijaykk
Is this all part of event management too?


Yashwant Sinha, Prakash Raj, Arun Shourie, Sagarika Ghouse, Rajdeep Sardesai, Shekhar Gupta, Karan Thapar, All commies and other assorted AApias and congoons are claiming that everything done by NAMO is event management.

so when you choke somebody at first they try to hit you with their arms and legs but after a minute or so they started shaking and with last ditch effort finally give up and die. These BIF are on their last leg watch them die in Gujarat elections!

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Gus » 04 Oct 2017 21:50

let's also calculate GDP in old old series for the index before and old old old series for the index before that and the old old old old...

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby vina » 04 Oct 2017 22:07

SBajwa wrote:Have you been to Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh and Himachal?

No. I haven't. I hope to do so next winter and visit Shima etc.
But that said. Punjab & Haryana were far ahead of TN & Kerala in per capita GDP/income in 60s to 80s even. Today KA and TN are ahead of Punjab Indian States Per Capita GDP. Haryana is ahead probably because of the spill over from Delhi into Gurgaon etc.

The fact is Punjab stagnated in the last 25 years and did not take off industrially and fell behind. Even HDI wise, it has slipped behind as well.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Supratik » 04 Oct 2017 22:14

GDP growth is calculated on a quarterly basis. Doesn't matter if it is old or new series. At least have some common sense.

Western MH, GJ, PJ, HY are pretty well developed by Indian stds. I have traveled through TN, PJ, HY. More modern infrastructure development and wealth in HY, PJ than TN HDI not withstanding. HY has per capita GDP and income higher than TN, in fact the highest among major states. UP, BH and WB are the problem states in north.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby ShauryaT » 04 Oct 2017 22:21

vina wrote:
During six years of the previous government, there were 8 instances when GDP was at or below 5.7 per cent

The difference between the "new" CPI numbers and the old series is 2% . So 5.7 % per the new series == 3.7% in the old series.
Please ask Mr Modi, in how many instances did the GDP dip below 3.7% in the UPA years ? It surely wont be 8 times.
The issue is not just a debate on numbers, it is about credibility, about being truthful and being predictable. It is also about capability. They can raise the GDP numbers in a few quarters and there are many tools to do so. I am also sure the hiccups in GST will eventually settle. But what will you do about the fact that people elected a leader to drive fundamental governance and administrative reform. The key word here is fundamental.

    NPA's and banking reform
    3rd tier governance reform - especially for large cities - provide them with real financial powers and accountabilities
    Strengthening of state administration and true devolution of power (GST is not an example of it, sorry)
    Incentives for manufacturing
    Creating a trusting environment between government and SME's - the key to private investment
    Judiciary Reform - Critical if there is to be trust and faith in the rule of law
    Changing the mix of indirect to direct tax base in favor of direct taxes (GST again not an example)

At the end of the day, it comes down to capabilities. A half lawyer masquerading at the helm of economic policy will not cut it. I actually like this Jaitley bugger and think he is a fabulous asset in the law ministry and can drive judicial reform.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby SBajwa » 04 Oct 2017 22:27

by Vina
But that said. Punjab & Haryana were far ahead of TN & Kerala in per capita GDP/income in 60s to 80s even. Today KA and TN are ahead of Punjab Indian States Per Capita GDP. Haryana is ahead probably because of the spill over from Delhi into Gurgaon etc.


If you do not count the number of UPits/Biharites in Punjab/Haryana then it automatically becomes the most developed area of India. The HDI numbers are because these areas are inviting people from UP/Bihar and not because Punjabis/Haryanvis have become poor or less educated. In my own village not one of my Nephew is willing to work in land rather they hire a person from UP/Bihar to become sort of manager to guide other labor for agriculture while they themselves roam around all over India. Also the saner punjabis have move of (from agriculture) to professional jobs.

Earlier in 1950-70 most of my uncles (from both sides) would enlist in defense forces as "Recruit" aka "Soldier" aka "General Infantry" and retire some JCO (Junior commissioned officer). My nephews and nieces whoever in armed forces are all officers from NDA.
Regarding infrastructure it is again excellent All over Punjab/Haryana/Himachal they have 3g in villages while in all cities it is 4g, no power outages and electrified trains. There used to be just one railway line from Delhi to Amritsar which now have been doubled and now there is one more line that goes through Chandigarh-Mohali-Ludhiana and all the way to Amritsar/Ferozepur.

The factories and farms of Punjab do need labor from UP/Bihar and thus HDI numbers looked as if they are down. I have often debated whether I should stay here in USA or move back when I see them enjoying their life.

The guy who used to sell sweets in Jalandhar (Ladoo, Jalebis, etc) now have a huge university where people from around the world come and study.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lovely_Pr ... University

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby hanumadu » 04 Oct 2017 22:42

Except Bihar and Manipur, all other states have crossed 1000$. Chattisgarh, MP and Rajasthan are close to national average. A few more terms of stable and honest govt will do wonders for those states.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby vina » 04 Oct 2017 22:49

Mort Walker wrote:You’re playing dirty pool. The base index is revised using an impartial analysis by the CSO. There are legitimate criticisms of the govt. but this isn’t one them. You’re doing a disservice to your arguments.


Is it ? The Govt promised that they will report the GDP based on both the new and old indices and infact said that they would recalculate the old index using the new index methodology so that a like to like comparison can be made.

It has been close to two years now, but the parallel reporting and recalculation of old index is not to be seen. Why is that ?

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby vina » 04 Oct 2017 22:57

SBajwa wrote:If you do not count the number of UPits/Biharites in Punjab/Haryana then it automatically becomes the most developed area of India.

Not true. This itinerant labor dynamic is true in every part of India, right from Kanyakumari to Kashmir. In fact, in my recent trip in Kerala, all the waiters and folks in Kerala (Sree Suprabatham Restaurant in Kollam for example) were Hindi speakers and I spoke Hindi with them (as did many locals). I opened my mouth to speak Tamayalam , and after one word and looking their face switched to Hindi. Same dynamic in Tamil Nadu as well. I know chicken farms where 100% of the labour is from UP/Bihar/Odisha/Assam etc.

Punjabis/Haryanvis have become poor or less educated.

It just means that others did better. The folks who were behind you in the race have lapped you and are now ahead. That is all. The general education & other indices have improved in Punjab & Haryana. But it improved faster in other places.


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