Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 13 Oct 2017 16:02

My prediction is it will bounce back to around 7%.

ShauryaT · Post by **ShauryaT** » 13 Oct 2017 17:37

disha wrote:
Of course "Kitna Gaya!?". How much did you lose?

No, what he is saying is govt corruption, inefficiency and lack of public trust are the major causes of tax avoidance. But, you just made a personal attack on him.

disha · Post by **disha** » 13 Oct 2017 20:07

ShauryaT wrote:No, what he is saying is govt corruption, inefficiency and lack of public trust are the major causes of tax avoidance. But, you just made a personal attack on him.

Let him/her state that clearly and to your point above it is obvious that previous govt. corruption, inefficiency over generations led to current situation of tax avoidance.

However the said person cited that tax avoidance is actually a fair distribution of money is to me just a plain bellicose rhetoric., you cannot twist that to your view point to make your point based on your political beliefs and sans any data.

disha · Post by **disha** » 13 Oct 2017 20:08

Supratik wrote:My prediction is it will bounce back to around 7%.

8-10% on the new formal base. Zoom-Zoom-Zoom.

Businesses who do not change will suffer.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 13 Oct 2017 21:23

We all agree that transparent system is only way forward but middle urban class is pissed. They don't want to pay taxes, do legal things because it is how things are done for 70 years. We are either not able to explain or they are not willing to reform or no one has confidence in babus.

Along with all these reforms, Govt. Should have kept cutting tax rates. Do something to keep ppl feel their tax burden is going down. If not, Pappu will be PM. Mark my words. Don't attack the messenger.

We do all these reforms and hand it over to looters and traitors, what good is going to come out?

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 13 Oct 2017 21:33

vijayk wrote:We all agree that transparent system is only way forward but middle urban class is pissed. They don't want to pay taxes, do legal things because it is how things are done for 70 years. We are either not able to explain or they are not willing to reform or no one has confidence in babus.

Along with all these reforms, Govt. Should have kept cutting tax rates. Do something to keep ppl feel their tax burden is going down. If not, Pappu will be PM. Mark my words. Don't attack the messenger.

We do all these reforms and hand it over to looters and traitors, what good is going to come out?

It will be an election year budget and everyone will get something

disha · Post by **disha** » 13 Oct 2017 21:55

vijayk wrote:We do all these reforms and hand it over to looters and traitors, what good is going to come out?

Yatha Praja., Tatha Raja. This is democracy. If people want to borrow from their future., nobody can help it or them.

If you do not want looters and traitors and Pappu to take advantage of the current sacrifices made by the people., then the people have to get over their individual pet peeves and work towards a common goal.

A tax burden is tolerable if it is equitable., that is all sections are made to pay tax then the complain will be against tax evaders. Currently the tax evaders are highly vocal and there are many of them hence the tax payers voices are drowned down. Further when everybody is making money or busy making money., they will be more than happy to not complain but concentrate on making more money.

India's economy will be taking off. It will be anywhere between 6-8%. Do not get surprised if it touches 10%. This will coupled with huge infrastructure spend.

Here is one reason why:

Talks To Bring Real Estate Under GST Soon, Says Jaitley: Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said the issue of bringing real estate under the ambit of goods and services tax (GST) will be discussed next month, as he acknowledged that it is one sector where maximum amount of tax evasion and cash generation takes place. Delivering a lecture at Harvard University, Jaitley said, the matter will be discussed in the next meeting of the GST, which is scheduled on 9 November. "The one sector in India where maximum amount of tax evasion and cash generation takes place and which is still outside GST is real estate. Some of the states have been pressing for it. I personally believe that there is a strong case to bring real estate into the GST," Jaitley said, while delivering the 'Annual Mahindra Lecture' on India's tax reforms. Petroleum products, alcohol and real estate are three sectors which were kept out of GST as several states were opposed to it.

Since that is another big and bold reform. A single tax system for RE and in line with other common goods and services.

Another thing I want to point out., on this very pages people were bemoaning 'where are the major reforms?' !! My qstn is now where are the bemoaners?

Reforms Undertaken By India Are Significant, Says World Bank Chief: The World Bank chief said on Thursday that the reforms initiated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi have been "significant" and the results would be reflected in the mid and long-term growth figures, just a day after the global lender forecast that India's gross domestic product (GDP) may slow down to 7 per cent in 2017. He was speaking at the start of the annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank in Washington. "Our team feels that the slowdown has been because of the waiting for the passage of goods and services tax (GST)," Kim said. "The GST will be very good for Indian growth, but for now the sense is that companies are waiting until that passes before really making investment and taking action. So, our sense is that this (slowdown in growth) is temporary," said the World Bank president.

ShauryaT · Post by **ShauryaT** » 13 Oct 2017 22:59

disha wrote: Let him/her state that clearly and to your point above it is obvious that previous govt. corruption, inefficiency over generations led to current situation of tax avoidance.

However the said person cited that tax avoidance is actually a fair distribution of money is to me just a plain bellicose rhetoric., you cannot twist that to your view point to make your point based on your political beliefs and sans any data.

Another violation. You just leaped to presume what my political beliefs may be. With all due respect, you have NO IDEA.

So, two violations from you. One a personal attack on someone, another presuming what someone's political beliefs maybe and the reason someone posts a critique to the govt's policy. All I can request you to do is, do not be so quick to judge. An opposing view point is just that many times, nothing less, nothing more. Moving on.

When a system is so corrupt and inefficient then money in private hands is far better than being in the hands of the public corrupt. Most of BM is just that money with unpaid taxes, not criminal. There is a systemic issue at play here. Blaming groups and individuals does not help. To what degree the govt forces the issue or creates incentives is a matter of debate for a govt that seeks to clean up. Force does not work well with the people of India, is my submission. It has ALWAYS backfired. Think about this aspect as you support the govt's policies.

If you have your ears to the ground, then GST at least in the short term has not ensured less generation of BM. Entire supply chains from consumers to manufacturers collude to avoid taxes as they have in the past. The high rates of GST to consumers simply makes the choice more clear. If you have your ears to the ground in the retail markets, wholesale markets, the capital markets, the services industry you will know what is going on and how are people feeling about this matter. People feel harassed, threatened. Indirect taxes have always been considered regressive, not progressive. It is also possible, what I hear and read is wrong and you do have a more accurate read of the ground situation.

Part of this change is simply just that pains of change management. Glad the govt is responding. However, outside of this do feel the reforms that needed be on the fast track are on the slow track and the one's that were needed to be on the slow track are on the fast lane. Our primary issue remains jobs, private investment and building trust in public systems. Some say, it will pick up and change and cite reasons of controlled deficit, inflation and capital spending by govt and private spending to follow backed by consumer demand. The stock market bulls are in that category. Hope they are right, to my benefit

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 13 Oct 2017 23:19

Spread this on Demo and GST

*Modi, Demonetisation, GST and Outrage beautifully explained.*

*CNN*

*Reasons for lower GDP Growth during the past quarter:*

*Imagine that you are appointed a Principal/Director of a college which is notorious for cheating and poor quality of education.*

*You find that most students cheat during the examination with the support of the teachers and do quite well in exams. The result of the college has been always more than 90% in recent years.*

*You are a person with principles and hence you decide to totally eliminate cheating from the examination. You install CCTV cameras in all examination halls and take actions against the students and the teachers who are found engaged in cheating.*

*The result is that cheating is totally stopped in examinations.*

*However, the performance of your college dips drastically and less than 50% students pass. This has been a bad performance in recent times.*

*You now face flak from all sides.*

*Students are angry because they failed due to your strictness.*

*Teachers are angry because their track record got spoiled because of you.*

*Trustees of college are angry because the result of their college has taken a beating under your charge.*

*This is what is happening in India right now.*

*But someone had to cleanup the mess!!*

JayS · Post by **JayS** » 13 Oct 2017 23:24

DD tweets, Exports grew 25.67% in Sept 17 vis a vis Sept 16. But wait, I thought exporters got screwed up big time by GST. So I read in multie articles. So whats the catch..?

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 13 Oct 2017 23:29

You are trying to do Bharatnatyam with your arguments. The public is as much corrupt as the system. It is someone's brother, uncle, father-in-law, etc which makes the system. Someone needs to clean-up. A politically astute person will be able to convey to the public why he is doing what he is doing. Contrary to popular belief the majority would like corruption to go down. That is why they voted him. If it backfires he is going to loose. And it is easier and saner to try to clean-up a 2 trillion dollar economy than a 10 trillion one and 10 trillion black economy. The student should first stop cheating before he starts studying hard for IIT.

Prasad · Post by **Prasad** » 13 Oct 2017 23:38

There's an article on troll.in not linking it here but it's a report after meeting steel traders in bombay. Buggers used to do large chunk of transactions in cash and outside of billing and legal scrutiny. All that tax evasion and now due to the input tax credit system everything is talked right from iron ore. So evasion is difficult and they're having to go by the book. They feel they're doing seva for the govt because they're having to pay tax apparently. Like i said, buggers.

Rishirishi · Post by **Rishirishi** » 14 Oct 2017 02:18

Prasad wrote:There's an article on troll.in not linking it here but it's a report after meeting steel traders in bombay. Buggers used to do large chunk of transactions in cash and outside of billing and legal scrutiny. All that tax evasion and now due to the input tax credit system everything is talked right from iron ore. So evasion is difficult and they're having to go by the book. They feel they're doing seva for the govt because they're having to pay tax apparently. Like i said, buggers.

This goes for most trades in India. Deeals are done with the exchange of a few words. Nothing is written. Huge transactios are done by cash. Traders are happey to do business in white. But IT is impossible AS long AS your competitor can sell IT cheaper, by avoiding sales tax. Customers are happy to purchase without bill.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 14 Oct 2017 02:33

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 14 Oct 2017 02:36

http://www.financialexpress.com/economy ... st/892084/

India’s merchandise exports grew at the fastest pace in six months in September, helping cut the trade deficit to a seventh-month low, belying concerns that implementation of the goods and services tax (GST) from 1 July may blunt export competitiveness.

Exports rose 25.7% to $28.6 billion last month, and the trade gap narrowed to $8.9 billion. “India’s growth story is back! During Sep’17, all the top ten commodity groups of export exhibited positive growth over Sep’16, comprising 82.14% share in total exports,” commerce minister Suresh Prabhu tweeted.

http://www.financialexpress.com/economy ... st/892084/

Double bonanza for economy: Macros improve as inflation down, factory output up
Industrial production has made a remarkable growth at 4.3% defying slowdown from previous month's 1.2%.

It is a twin bonanza for the economy as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September has gone down and the industrial production for July has made a remarkable growth defying slowdown from the previous month. The CPI Inflation for September was recorded 3.28%, down from previous month’s 3.36% mainly due to fall in food prices post monsoon.

The industrial production, which grew a meagre 1.2%, bearing the brunt of a dismal show of the manufacturing sector, made a remarkable comeback at 4.3%. Both CPI and IIP defied conservative predictions, including ET Now’s, which had predicted CPI to rise 3.4% and IIP to rise 2.5%. However, the with August’s industrial production at 4.3%, it is inching towards 4.5% growth in July last year.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 14 Oct 2017 02:40

Looks like it is true

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 14 Oct 2017 02:44

I really feel sad that we take CON looter supporters who pose as free market economists seriously and they are sophisticated enough to fool people even in this well informed forum like BRF

achoudhury · Post by **achoudhury** » 14 Oct 2017 03:12

ShauryaT wrote: When a system is so corrupt and inefficient then money in private hands is far better than being in the hands of the public corrupt. Most of BM is just that money with unpaid taxes, not criminal. There is a systemic issue at play here. Blaming groups and individuals does not help. To what degree the govt forces the issue or creates incentives is a matter of debate for a govt that seeks to clean up. Force does not work well with the people of India, is my submission. It has ALWAYS backfired. Think about this aspect as you support the govt's policies.

System is corrupt and that is why People should not pay tax. This is a circular argument. So, should we let the situation to continue and fester or should we try to make system transparent and also make sure that people pay their fair share of taxes. Better would have been to explain how Modi's policies are enabling or maintaining status quo in corruption and then take fig leaf of why people should not pay. Otherwise it is just a cop out to not pay taxes. As of now, I can cite many major policies which actually has reduced big ticket corruption e.g. Online Auction of Resources, DBT, DeMo, GST, RERA, Bankrupty Code, Push for Digitisation, etc. Can you cite me one which has increased corruption ?

If you have your ears to the ground in the retail markets, wholesale markets, the capital markets, the services industry you will know what is going on and how are people feeling about this matter. People feel harassed, threatened. Indirect taxes have always been considered regressive, not progressive. It is also possible, what I hear and read is wrong and you do have a more accurate read of the ground situation.

Please substantiate with data, not ears to ground theory. You claim entire some Industry have managed to keep themselves out of GST. Which are these industries and how they have managed this seemingly impossible feat. While it is entirely possible some of traders at the bottom of chain may not pay GST and absorb the impact to reduce their income but entire chain ? Sounds incredible. Also, if people are not paying or not being able to pay GST then should not it reflect in number of filings and overall tax collection. Not sure where you get your data but compliance seems be really good and tax collection better then estimates. This data is from agency which actually runs GSTN. Try google for Jul and Aug GST figures. One legitimate grievance is about adapting to new tax regime but that is temporary and people will figure it out eventually. Another is the technical capacity issue with GSTN framework but that is also not systemic or structural issue and it will probably sort out quickly. There is also features like Composition scheme which substantially reduces compliance burden for small traders. This leaves only one group of dis-satisfied people. This class of people have been accustomed to not pay tax and hence feeling the pinch. Not really sure, if something can be done for them

I have not seen one coherent argument about why GST is bad, other then citing some anecdotal arguments or theory built on one quarter of slow growth. All logical one points out that GST will being compliance, reduce inefficiencies in the system and boost growth. Proof of that is Capital Markets which is forward looking in nature and actually prices in all current economic conditions, good or bad.

achoudhury · Post by **achoudhury** » 14 Oct 2017 03:40

disha wrote:
Supratik wrote:My prediction is it will bounce back to around 7%.
8-10% on the new formal base. Zoom-Zoom-Zoom.

Not going to happen any time soon. Too many supply side constraints like Land, Labour, Credit, etc. May go upto 8% if exports and Private Investments shoots up. Both of them are likely to underperform for some more time. Till then, we should expect 7%+. One thing which will grow way more than trendline will be tax collection both direct and indirect. It will go zoom, zoom and zoom. Last fiscal direct tax was 8.5 lac crore ( 2013-14 it was 5.83 lac crore. 2013-14 was last year of UPA2) and indirect was 8.6 lac crore ( 5 lac crore in 2013-14) , I expect this figure to almost grow 1.5 times in next two years. Which means total tax collection would have increased by 2.5 times in 5 year span with CAGR of 20% ( Add to it that this is all done with inflation in 3-4% , rather then 8-10% of UPA2 days). That will be incredible and will give GoI an unprecedented bounty.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 14 Oct 2017 03:52

ShauryaT wrote:
When a system is so corrupt and inefficient then money in private hands is far better than being in the hands of the public corrupt. Most of BM is just that money with unpaid taxes, not criminal. There is a systemic issue at play here. Blaming groups and individuals does not help. To what degree the govt forces the issue or creates incentives is a matter of debate for a govt that seeks to clean up. Force does not work well with the people of India, is my submission. It has ALWAYS backfired. Think about this aspect as you support the govt's policies.

You may not have to heart to carry out the reform and withstand the consequences. Other Indians do and they don't want the system to continue. They believe they can fix the system and will fix it.

Its ridiculous that you should support a corrupt system on the pretext of it is better than the what should be the ideal system. Your assumption that private individuals are more efficient at deploying capital for GREATER GOOD than the govt is specious and has no proof. And you bring up issues like force, incentive and what not. What exactly did the Indian govt did that govts all over the world are not doing? They are creating a level playing field for honest people to compete with corrupt people. For some one like me who has hopes of starting my own enterprise in India some day, I cannot but support what this govt is doing.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 14 Oct 2017 05:11

http://www.producer.com/2017/10/indias- ... se-supply/
India’s bumper summer crop adds to ample pulse supply
( Unlike UPA importing 9 Billion $ worth Dals)

India is forecasting the second biggest kharif (summer) pulse harvest on record, but a Canadian analyst believes it will be smaller than the government thinks. In its first advance estimate for the 2017-18 kharif crop, the Indian government predicted 8.71 million tonnes of pulse production. 
That would be down from last year’s record 9.42 million tonne harvest, but 49 percent higher than the average output for the five years before last year. The news is troublesome, considering India is already sitting on a stockpile of pulses that has reduced early post-harvest exports from Canada. The summer pigeon pea crop is expected to be 3.99 million tonnes, again down from last year but 40 percent higher than the previous five-year average. Canadian green lentils are used as a substitute for pigeon peas in years when India’s crop is inadequate. Chuck Penner, analyst with LeftField Commodity Research, said India’s first crack at estimating production should be taken with a grain of salt. 
“They don’t make any attempt to establish yields,” he said. The government multiplies its pulse acreage estimate by longer- term average yields to come up with the production estimate.  On the surface that would appear to be a reasonable approach given that this year’s monsoon rains were just five percent below normal for the country as a whole. However, about one-quarter of kharif pulses are grown in Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh, two states where rainfall has been 15 to 30 percent below normal. Indian farmers planted more pigeon peas than normal despite lacklustre prices because they have limited options and the market price was above the minimum support price, he said. Stat Publishing reports that the Indian government is starting to sell off its 1.8 million tonne stockpile of pulses. It will begin by selling 550,000 tonnes to state governments and the private sector. 

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 14 Oct 2017 07:45

achoudhury wrote:
disha wrote:
8-10% on the new formal base. Zoom-Zoom-Zoom.

Not going to happen any time soon. Too many supply side constraints like Land, Labour, Credit, etc. May go upto 8% if exports and Private Investments shoots up. Both of them are likely to underperform for some more time. Till then, we should expect 7%+. One thing which will grow way more than trendline will be tax collection both direct and indirect. It will go zoom, zoom and zoom. Last fiscal direct tax was 8.5 lac crore ( 2013-14 it was 5.83 lac crore. 2013-14 was last year of UPA2) and indirect was 8.6 lac crore ( 5 lac crore in 2013-14) , I expect this figure to almost grow 1.5 times in next two years. Which means total tax collection would have increased by 2.5 times in 5 year span with CAGR of 20% ( Add to it that this is all done with inflation in 3-4% , rather then 8-10% of UPA2 days). That will be incredible and will give GoI an unprecedented bounty.

Will they consider eliminating taxes for all revenues below 10 lakhs?

There is a lot of alienation in middle class. They are crying because a lot of black money making channels are closing. Hope Modi does something drastic that is good them. They are buying all crap which Liberal media is selling due to closing of illegal means.

Dipanker · Post by **Dipanker** » 14 Oct 2017 08:05

India slips 3 notches to 100 on Global Hunger Index; trails N Korea, Iraq

India has a ‘serious’ hunger problem at hand, with the country slipping three notches to 100 among 119 countries on the Global Hunger Index (GHI), 2017. This is worse than the likes of North Korea, Bangladesh, and Iraq, and better only than Pakistan and Afghanistan among Asian countries.

Over three-year duration, the country has seen a slide of 45 positions from 55 in 2014. However, the rankings are not strictly comparable, as the current formula was introduced in 2015. The earlier formula was used to calculate GHI scores from 2006 to 2014.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 14 Oct 2017 08:09

Dipanker wrote:India slips 3 notches to 100 on Global Hunger Index; trails N Korea, Iraq

India has a ‘serious’ hunger problem at hand, with the country slipping three notches to 100 among 119 countries on the Global Hunger Index (GHI), 2017. This is worse than the likes of North Korea, Bangladesh, and Iraq, and better only than Pakistan and Afghanistan among Asian countries.

Over three-year duration, the country has seen a slide of 45 positions from 55 in 2014. However, the rankings are not strictly comparable, as the current formula was introduced in 2015. The earlier formula was used to calculate GHI scores from 2006 to 2014.

Mostly crap. India is continuously improving

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 14 Oct 2017 08:22

If the Govt. collects more taxes, they are wrong
If Govt. tries to convert black economy to white, they are wrong.
If people are asked to pay taxes, they are wrong.
If they cut interest rates, they are wrong.
If the inflation goes up, they are wrong.

But we need to be developed like China/US and all indices should improve by 30% every year.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 14 Oct 2017 08:47

Dipanker wrote:India slips 3 notches to 100 on Global Hunger Index; trails N Korea, Iraq

India has a ‘serious’ hunger problem at hand, with the country slipping three notches to 100 among 119 countries on the Global Hunger Index (GHI), 2017. This is worse than the likes of North Korea, Bangladesh, and Iraq, and better only than Pakistan and Afghanistan among Asian countries.

Over three-year duration, the country has seen a slide of 45 positions from 55 in 2014. However, the rankings are not strictly comparable, as the current formula was introduced in 2015. The earlier formula was used to calculate GHI scores from 2006 to 2014.

All congis and commies have been quoting this report on SM for the last month or two inspite of many people pointing out the discrepancies.

1. The 2014 report ranked only 76 nations. India was 55 out of 76.
2. The 2017 report ranked 119 nations.
3. The scoring methodology changed in 2015, so even the ranking and scores are not comparable pre 2015 and post 2015.

Dipanker · Post by **Dipanker** » 14 Oct 2017 09:14

hanumadu wrote:
Dipanker wrote:India slips 3 notches to 100 on Global Hunger Index; trails N Korea, Iraq

All congis and commies have been quoting this report on SM for the last month or two inspite of many people pointing out the discrepancies.

1. The 2014 report ranked only 76 nations. India was 55 out of 76.
2. The 2017 report ranked 119 nations.
3. The scoring methodology changed in 2015, so even the ranking and scores are not comparable pre 2015 and post 2015.

Technicality notwithstanding, the numbers are still pretty dismal though, if we are being ranked behind North Korea and Bangladesh, that should tell us something.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 14 Oct 2017 09:31

Dipanker wrote:
hanumadu wrote:
All congis and commies have been quoting this report on SM for the last month or two inspite of many people pointing out the discrepancies.

1. The 2014 report ranked only 76 nations. India was 55 out of 76.
2. The 2017 report ranked 119 nations.
3. The scoring methodology changed in 2015, so even the ranking and scores are not comparable pre 2015 and post 2015.
Technicality notwithstanding, the numbers are still pretty dismal though, if we are being ranked behind North Korea and Bangladesh, that should tell us something.

why should India worry about what some gora thinks of us??

Let the lefty/congi idiots in the SM do what they will. what did they do when they were in the drivers seat?? are things hunky dory in kerala and WB??

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 14 Oct 2017 09:33

Dipanker wrote:
hanumadu wrote:
All congis and commies have been quoting this report on SM for the last month or two inspite of many people pointing out the discrepancies.

1. The 2014 report ranked only 76 nations. India was 55 out of 76.
2. The 2017 report ranked 119 nations.
3. The scoring methodology changed in 2015, so even the ranking and scores are not comparable pre 2015 and post 2015.
Technicality notwithstanding, the numbers are still pretty dismal though, if we are being ranked behind North Korea and Bangladesh, that should tell us something.

I am not contesting how dismal India's performance has been since independence, just the skewed impression the comparison between 2014 and 2017 rankings give as if India's performance has been bad only recently.

krisna · Post by **krisna** » 14 Oct 2017 09:43

Many are writing that economy is in tailspin .
what that economy is meant is generally the formal economy -- about the cities led economic activities mainly- exports imports IT and its assorted service industry agriculture stocks etc etc.

The non formal economy size is known or not I don't know. does anyone know the impact of it due to GST and demonetisation.

Being a novice with some understanding-
-majority of Indians with population of >1.2 billion don't use too much of high denomination notes. hence not much impacted by demonetisation as those with minority with lot of money(illegally mostly)
-majority have had a free bank account since 2014. deposits have increased steadily over time.
-many poor people have had money in accounts thru direct benefits transfer.
-many women have had the benefit of gas cylinder scheme
-many villages have got electricity
-many have had toilets constructed with improved sanitation to great extent
-many small scale enterprises have had some benefit from MUDRA type schemes.
- have had improved neem coated urea supply to farmers for better yields.
-swaach Bharat campaign
-irrigation reforms, crop insurance program
- and many more.......

Now the question is -- how will we reconcile these economic developments to nation's economic grid. How to make these have a positive or negative impact so that it gets counted.
IOW are we neglecting the common Indian economic activity and focussing only what westerners want to hear.

Are we actually underestimating the Giant Indian economic activity.

----------------------------------------------
Now with ensuring better tax compliance and GST implementation after ironing out teething troubles-- will we see a quantum jump in our GDP as formal economy gets the non formal economy included officially etc etc.

manju · Post by **manju** » 14 Oct 2017 11:13

vijayk wrote:Spread this on Demo and GST

*Modi, Demonetisation, GST and Outrage beautifully explained.*

*CNN*

*Reasons for lower GDP Growth during the past quarter:*

*Imagine that you are appointed a Principal/Director of a college which is notorious for cheating and poor quality of education.*

*You find that most students cheat during the examination with the support of the teachers and do quite well in exams. The result of the college has been always more than 90% in recent years.*

*You are a person with principles and hence you decide to totally eliminate cheating from the examination. You install CCTV cameras in all examination halls and take actions against the students and the teachers who are found engaged in cheating.*

*The result is that cheating is totally stopped in examinations.*

*However, the performance of your college dips drastically and less than 50% students pass. This has been a bad performance in recent times.*

*You now face flak from all sides.*

*Students are angry because they failed due to your strictness.*

*Teachers are angry because their track record got spoiled because of you.*

*Trustees of college are angry because the result of their college has taken a beating under your charge.*

*This is what is happening in India right now.*

*But someone had to cleanup the mess!!*

Super!! will disseminate this

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 14 Oct 2017 12:15

Dipanker wrote:India slips 3 notches to 100 on Global Hunger Index; trails N Korea, Iraq

India has a ‘serious’ hunger problem at hand, with the country slipping three notches to 100 among 119 countries on the Global Hunger Index (GHI), 2017. This is worse than the likes of North Korea, Bangladesh, and Iraq, and better only than Pakistan and Afghanistan among Asian countries.

Over three-year duration, the country has seen a slide of 45 positions from 55 in 2014. However, the rankings are not strictly comparable, as the current formula was introduced in 2015. The earlier formula was used to calculate GHI scores from 2006 to 2014.

Yes Yes, detailed statistics are available for North Korea.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 14 Oct 2017 13:36

According to the GHI report, more than a fifth (21%) of children in India suffer from wasting (low weight for height)—up from 20% in 2005-2006.

By contrast, the report said, India considerably improved its child stunting rate, down 29% since 2000, but even that progress leaves India with a relatively high stunting rate of 38.4%.

https://www.google.co.in/amp/www.livemi ... bal-h.html

JayS · Post by **JayS** » 14 Oct 2017 14:43

Dipanker wrote:India slips 3 notches to 100 on Global Hunger Index; trails N Korea, Iraq

India has a ‘serious’ hunger problem at hand, with the country slipping three notches to 100 among 119 countries on the Global Hunger Index (GHI), 2017. This is worse than the likes of North Korea, Bangladesh, and Iraq, and better only than Pakistan and Afghanistan among Asian countries.

Over three-year duration, the country has seen a slide of 45 positions from 55 in 2014. However, the rankings are not strictly comparable, as the current formula was introduced in 2015. The earlier formula was used to calculate GHI scores from 2006 to 2014.

Before taking such reports seriously one needs to make sure the methodology is correct or not. A few years ago similar report came saying 60-70% babies in India are malnourished. Now i was thinking if so many were malnourished then I should see a good number of kids in my acquaintance to be unhealthy. But guess what I dont see such thing. And I come from lower middle class strata so I am not looking only at well to do population. So I looked more into the details of the weight and hieght and other body measure matrices they use. Turns out that majority of matrices used by western organizations are derived from data for Western and African population who tends to have more height and weight on an average than asian people. At best they have very limited data on Asian population and Indian population in particular. Obviously using that min value would put many asian countries on lower quartile. There have been many studies and debates on this. So its better we check what parameters are used and whether they are statistically relevant or not. A casual look around oneself is enough to tell you such reports have something wrong in them. Its better to trust Indian agency's data which is specific for Indian population.

I observed this lack of biological data for Indian population previously also while I was preparing a computational model of human body for some tool I was making in one of my previous jobs. Its not so easy to get reliable data on Indian population while data for western population is dime a dozen on internet, simply because they do far more such studies.

Deans · Post by **Deans** » 14 Oct 2017 14:55

JayS wrote:DD tweets, Exports grew 25.67% in Sept 17 vis a vis Sept 16. But wait, I thought exporters got screwed up big time by GST. So I read in multie articles. So whats the catch..?

Exports have grown for 13 consecutive months (over the corresponding month a year ago). So have imports (even if you exclude over invoiced
imports post demo, which might have been an attempt to get black money out of the country). Not exactly a sign that the economy has collapsed.
The only category of import that has fallen is gold, which is unproductive.
Oil imports have fallen in terms of volume. That implies we are using oil more efficiently (e.g. due to better power availability, we don't use
diesel generators).

Peregrine · Post by **Peregrine** » 14 Oct 2017 15:26

IMF favours three structural reforms in India

WASHINGTON: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has suggested a three-pronged approach for structural reformation in India that includes addressing the corporate and banking sector weaknesses, continued fiscal consolidation through revenue measure, and improving the efficiency of labour and product markets.

Deputy Director Asia Pacific Department of IMF, Kenneth Kang, said the favourable outlook for Asia was an important opportunity for India to push forward with difficult reforms.

"As such, there should be three policy priorities in the area of structural reforms," Kang, Deputy Director Asia pacific Department IMF told reporters at a news conference here.

"First priority is to address the corporate and banking sector weaknesses, by accelerating the resolution of non-performing loans, rebuilding the capital buffers for the public sector banks, and enhancing banks' debt recovery mechanisms," he said.

Secondly, Kang said, India should continue with the fiscal consolidation through revenue measures, as well as further reductions in subsidies.

"And lastly, it's to maintain the strong momentum for structural reforms in addressing the infrastructure gaps, improving the efficiency of labour and product markets as well as furthering agricultural reforms," said Kang.

Responding to a question on labour market reforms, Kang suggested reforming the market regulations in order to create a more favorable environment for investment and employment.

"There is a need to reduce the number of labour laws which currently number around 250 across the central and the state level," said Kang.

He said India should also focus on closing the gender gap which may help a great deal in boosting the employment opportunities for women in India.

"Improvements in infrastructure can be one important way to facilitate the entry of women into the labour force. But in addition, there is a need to strengthening the implementation of specific gender regulations, as well as to invest more in gender specific training and education," Kang said.

According to IMF's Regional Economic Outlook, India's growth slowed in recent quarters due to the temporary disruptions from the currency exchange initiative 6-- demonetisation -- that took place in November 2016, and the recent roll-out of the Goods and Services Tax (GST).

The report, however, went on to say that the growth in 2017 was revised downward to reflect the recent slowdown, but is expected to accelerate in the medium term as these temporary disruptions fade.

Cheers

vera_k · Post by **vera_k** » 14 Oct 2017 21:16

JayS wrote:Before taking such reports seriously one needs to make sure the methodology is correct or not.

The data in the GHI report pretty much agrees with data from GoI. The implication is that nutrition in India is not improving as fast as elsewhere in the world, which is why the country slipped in the rankings.

disha · Post by **disha** » 14 Oct 2017 21:28

^^ The data in GHI report (and the low weight to height ratio) should be taken with a huge truck load of salt. In essence the GHI data is useless and not even worth the toilet paper it is printed on.

The weight to height ratio even though is generally a good indicator is actually useless. The key indicator is under 5 mortality index and that is falling and has more than halved in one generation.

The "malnutrition" or "undernourishment" is a subjective factor. One can have excellent weight to height ratio and still be "malnourished".

Further GHI goes and compares the data with North Korea and the headline is made even more misleading. In essence., #mediapimps at work.

What is the solution for Mal-nutrition? No it is not more food., it is clean water and cleaner surroundings. It is easy to correlate nourishment with food but nourishment is more correlated to clean water and clean surroundings.

disha · Post by **disha** » 14 Oct 2017 21:42

achoudhury wrote:Not going to happen any time soon. Too many supply side constraints like Land, Labour, Credit, etc. May go upto 8% if exports and Private Investments shoots up. Both of them are likely to underperform for some more time. Till then, we should expect 7%+.

That is the traditional view of the economists and the economists have an excellent track record of missing entire green forests when searching for leaves.

Land, Labour and Credit definitely are related in a macro sense., however one sector that is being ignored in all calculations is agriculture. Agriculture accounts for @10% of the GDP now. The growth rate in this sector is @4-5% and is going to grow further. Do not be surprised that agriculture and agri-based industry (think Baba Ramdev products and herbal and forestry products and canned food etc) grows at 10-15% and the overall sector will account for 15-20% of the GDP by 2020.

The land cost is already factored in and credit is actually available. Mechanization of labour is helping this sector a lot.

Another sector that is being ignored is textiles. Agri-Textiles are poised for take off.

One thing which will grow way more than trendline will be tax collection both direct and indirect. It will go zoom, zoom and zoom. ... That will be incredible and will give GoI an unprecedented bounty.

Could not agree more. And that bounty will be re-invested efficiently back into economy.

Prasad · Post by **Prasad** » 14 Oct 2017 22:37

Kaur has silently moved processing parks/plants at a great speed. If that expands even further agro processing and storage will see a jump.