Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

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achoudhury
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by achoudhury »

https://www.ndtv.com/video/shows/walk-t ... eatured...

Here CEA Arvind Subramanian explains what was the NPA issue, why it happened and what is being done to resolve it and how can we avoid the re-ocurence. Two thing he did not clearly spelt out was 1. How Accounting of recap bond will happen and 2. What are policy response to avoid re-occurence.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Sicanta »

A bold step in bank reform

http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/lead/a- ... 926994.ece

T.T. Ram Mohan is a professor at IIM Ahmedabad
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by ShauryaT »

Bowing to necessity: The bank recapitalisation scheme reflects government’s failure to transform state-capital relations
First, the government has to demonstrate the capacity to discipline big capital; it has to demonstrate the capacity to penalise at least some big companies for their brazenness or their incompetence. Instead of a moralised, all pervasive, fear-producing crusade in the name of black money that was carried out on the backs of ordinary Indians in the name of demonetisation, the ability to smartly go after defaulters would have been far more reassuring for the future of state-capital relations.
The government has, to be fair, initiated steps both on disciplining-the-companies front and on renegotiation. But there is still a big question mark on the credibility and effectiveness of these processes. The government will still be left with what we might call the twin legitimacy problem. If it goes after big capital rigorously, it risks derailing growth; if it does not, it will lend credence to the perception that the big sound and light show over black money was essentially to take from the poor to protect the rich. And the sequencing of measures sure makes it look that way. Recapitalisation may be necessary. But the fact that recapitalisation has happened before real NPA reform and disciplining of errant companies will give credence to the impression that ordinary Indians are being imposed upon, while big capital is still protected.

Whether this recapitalisation will lead to growth and when is an open question. More than the alleged credit slow down, tax uncertainties, supply-side shocks, the fact that savings of middle-class Indians are stranded in non-delivered investments like housing, and the uncertain costs of formalisation are probably bigger factors. So the jury is out on the growth gambit. That the government bets on another old play, increase investment in roads, suggests it has also run out of diagnosis about why private investment is not picking up.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by A_Gupta »

Two Cheers For India’s Banking Stimulus... And Why I Held Back The Third One
https://swarajyamag.com/economy/two-che ... -third-one

The mechanics of recapitalization bonds (from 2016):
http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/opi ... 276459.ece
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by vijayk »

Why could they not do this stimulus earlier?
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Supratik »

Becoz without cleaning up bad habits and business as usual will continue.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by VinodTK »

A digital financial economy and tax reform could boost India to a decade of 10% per year GDP growth
A new report from Morgan Stanley Research finds that two major initiatives—digitizing its predominantly cash-based economy and reforming its archaic tax system—have the potential to amplify India’s expansion, making it one of the world’s fastest-growing large economies over the next 10 years.

“The country was already on a strong trajectory, but digitization puts India’s nominal GDP growth on track to compound annually by more than 10% in U.S. dollar terms over the coming decade,” says Anil Agarwal, Head of Asian Financial Research at Morgan Stanley. “The result could be a multi-trillion-dollar opportunity.”

India has near term economic problems but visible shifts in economic activity should be seen in 2018. Morgan Stanley believes India’s economy is poised to leapfrog from its current seventh-place position to the third-largest economy by 2027 with $6 trillion gross domestic product. Its equity market, now tenth in the world, could jump to fifth, with financial services and consumer discretionary stocks leading the way.

The beginning of India’s digital revolution was the 2010 launch of a biometric identification program called Aadhaar, which assigns everyone a unique 12-digit number that can be verified by fingerprint or iris scan. The project is nearly complete, with most of India’s 1.3 billion people now registered in the government’s digital database.

Currently, India has around 800 million unique mobile users, and about 430 million have Internet access—a third of India’s population. “We believe Internet access will double in the next 10 years and we estimate that 915 million Indians will be on the Internet by 2026,” says Ridham Desai, Head of India Research.

Goods and services tax will fix fiscal issues

The new Goods and Services Tax (GST) that launched in July also has the potential to improve India’s overall outlook. India’s ratio of tax revenues to GDP is lower than the average for emerging markets, which is a key reason why its fiscal deficit has been relatively high. High fiscal deficits are often a red flag for foreign investors.

Specifically, India is moving from an archaic and complicated tax system to a unified and completely digital system.

Morgan Stanley is bullish on the India stock markets and sees 24% annual returns for the next five years.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by vijayk »

http://www.financialexpress.com/economy ... ts/908310/

Infrastructure investments to rise to Rs 50 lakh cr in FY18-22, says Crisil, suggests 5 steps to ensure results
Investments in India’s Infrastructure sectors will grow to Rs 50 lakh crore in the five fiscal years to FY22, up over a third from the previous five years, Crisil said on Thursday, predicating the estimate on average GDP growth of around 7% during the period.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by vijayk »

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 307269.cms
India poised for 8% GDP growth: ET Awards Panel


Indian economy is on the threshold of expanding at 8% per annum at the least for many years as it enters the promising phase of recovering from the teething troubles of the new tax regime and demonetisation at a time when macroeconomic indicators are among the best in the world, top Indian and foreign business leaders and key ministers said at the glittering ET Awards ceremony on Saturday. The country will see a spurt in domestic and foreign investment along with creation of millions of jobs if the government makes it easier for entrepreneurs to do business and bankers get well-structured, sound projects to appraise, panellists at the ET Awards ceremony said.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by disha »

vijayk wrote:Why could they not do this stimulus earlier?
Where would you think the stimulus would go if the Banks were not forced to declare their existing NPAs?
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by disha »

^^ All of the above figures and facts are wrong. The above facts and figures do not point to a downward spiral.

Here is the declaration from CNN Money "India's economy in 'downward spiral.' What did Modi get wrong?" http://money.cnn.com/2017/10/04/news/ec ... index.html

Is this what a downward spiral looks like?

Indicators of Indian economy in a downward spiral
Hindustan Unilever Ltd (HUL), India’s biggest maker of packaged consumer goods and a corporate proxy for consumption demand in the economy, beat analysts’ expectations on Wednesday, reporting a stellar 16.42 per cent increase in net profit for the September quarter to Rs 1,276 crore from a year earlier. The company had posted a 9.3 per cent profit increase in the June quarter, the period when businesses slowed production in the run-up to the historic rollout of the goods and services tax (GST) from 1 July.
And this:
August data also suggested a recovery in capital goods production, taken as a proxy for investment demand in the economy, from a sustained contraction since the beginning of the financial year. It expanded 5.4% in August. Consumer durables production recovered to grow 1.6% in August after contracting 3.6% in July as manufacturing regains momentum in the new GST regime.
Such cratering of demand!
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Kakkaji »

Bank cleanup roadmap: Capital infusion first, restructuring later

The contours of the Rs 2.11 lakh crore recapitalisation programme for public sector banks have begun to emerge, with the government setting a target of “three quarters”, spread across the current fiscal and the next, to get the plan off the ground. The government also appears to have decided that the much-awaited plan of reorganisation of PSU banks will have to wait until the bank recapitalisation plan takes off, according to a senior source in the government who is in the know of the deliberations at the highest levels.

“The reorganisation of banks is not likely to be pushed in the immediate backdrop of the recapitalisation announcement. It will have to be deferred till the bank recapitalisation plan takes off,” said the source. The top official also said the bank recapitalisation announcement was delayed by two to three months as the government debated which of the two tasks — reorganisation of public sector banks or recapitalisation – should be taken up first.

“Restructuring of public sector banks to consolidate them by way of mergers has been a publicly announced objective after which the strengthening efforts could have followed. However, it became clear that reorganisation is not easy and will take long. So, it was decided to go ahead with recapitalisation,” said the source. “This debate took place for two to three months within the government before it was settled in favour of recapitalisation first.”

With recapitalisation bonds adding to government equity, banks will have more equity to dilute and raise more capital. Banks, consequently, will be given the option to dilute government equity after availing recapitalisation bonds. The government now hopes that with markets cheering banking stocks after the recapitalisation announcement, banks will be able to raise more than the estimated Rs 58,000 crore.

“The capacity for banks to mobilise capital through this route will go up. This option is likely to place banks in a much better position to raise capital from the market by diluting government equity. This, in fact, may result in banks raising more capital than the Rs 58,000 crore that they were expected to,” said the source.

The bank recapitalisation plan comes after the government considered various other plans over the last few years to deal with the crisis in the banking sector. Policymakers had first toyed with the idea of a bad bank under the public sector. Subsequently, they also considered setting up an asset reconstruction company in the private sector.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Sicanta »

Ease of business: India in top 100

http://www.thehindu.com/todays-paper/ea ... 942803.ece

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by chaitanya »

Jobless growth is for real, says rating agency Care
Aggregate employees in 1,473 companies grew to 5.18 million in FY17 from 5.01 million in FY15, a growth of a little over 1 percentage point per year compared to over nearly 7 per cent economic growth.
How accurate are these numbers, and is there any source for somewhat accurate employment figures in the informal sector? Trying to understand how bad these numbers are!
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Supratik »

Too small a number that to in organized sector to come to a conclusion.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by chaitanya »

Thanks, found the report here. Should've read this first, it clearly says it ignores the SME sector.

Adding to my previous question, is there any good information on employment in the SME sector or do we just have to go off of indirect indicators? (For example, are there any figures released by job websites, etc.) It would be good to know this to potentially counter the belief that India is undergoing jobless growth.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by A_Gupta »

^^^ As far as I can tell, GOI gets a view into the unorganized sector via National Sample Surveys; but the last one related to employment was 2011-2012!!!!!!!!!!

PS:
Excerpt from the 2016-17 Annual Report of the Ministry of Labour and Employment:
http://labour.gov.in/annual-reports
As per the survey carried out by the National Sample Survey Organisation in the year 2011-12, the total employment in both
organized and unorganised sector in the country was of the order of 47 crore. Out of this, about 8 crore were in the organized sector and the balance of 39 crore in the unorganized sector. The workers in the unorganized sector constitute more than 90 percent of the total employment in the country. A large number of unorganized workers are home based and are engaged in occupations such as beedi rolling, agarbatti making, papad making, tailoring, and embroidery work.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Supratik »

Rahul Kanwal twitter

India moves up 30 places in ease of doing business from 130 to 100. If true still a long way to go.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by achoudhury »

Jaggi on digitization https://swarajyamag.com/economy/demos-o ... able-force . The push by banks and pull of youngsters are two core reasons for Digital takeoff. Also, as of now story is in adoption and volumes.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by vijayk »

^^
Digital is waiting to explode.

If Rahul Gandhi wants to make a big deal of the digital push, he should aim at its chinks: big potential flaws in cyber security. Or, maybe, ask his pet Pidi to handle this issue. :rotfl:
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by chaitanya »

A_Gupta wrote:^^^ As far as I can tell, GOI gets a view into the unorganized sector via National Sample Surveys; but the last one related to employment was 2011-2012!!!!!!!!!!

PS:
Excerpt from the 2016-17 Annual Report of the Ministry of Labour and Employment:
http://labour.gov.in/annual-reports
As per the survey carried out by the National Sample Survey Organisation in the year 2011-12, the total employment in both
organized and unorganised sector in the country was of the order of 47 crore. Out of this, about 8 crore were in the organized sector and the balance of 39 crore in the unorganized sector. The workers in the unorganized sector constitute more than 90 percent of the total employment in the country. A large number of unorganized workers are home based and are engaged in occupations such as beedi rolling, agarbatti making, papad making, tailoring, and embroidery work.
Thanks for finding this - thats pretty sad... the government should really spend more on employment statistics to gauge the performance of schemes
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Mollick.R »

NEW DELHI: Bringing in more reason to cheer, India's ranking in the World Bank's ease of doing business index showed a significant improvement. As per the latest report released, India has moved to 100th spot from 130th position.

Finance Minister Arun Jaitley said that "this is the highest jump any country has made in the doing business rankings."

The ranking, however, does not take into account business environment post implementation of GST, which weaved the country of 1.3 billion into one market with one tax and removed inter-state barriers for trade.


#AacheyDin :D

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/bus ... 360578.cms
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Pratyush »

World bank is a bhakt :((

Secularism in danger :P

On a serious note this coupled with GST should kick us in high growth phase in the next few months.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Prasad »

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Pratyush »

India was ranked at 100 in the World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business report this year, up from 130 last year

https://swarajyamag.com/economy/ease-of ... -30-places

A nice list of initiatives reflecting the nature of reforms which have helped in improving the rankings.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Suraj »

Here's the official link:
World Bank Ease of Doing Business Rankings
Subcategory rankings:
Starting business 156
Dealing with construction permits 181
Getting electricity 29
Registering property 154
Getting credit 29
Protecting minority investors 4
Paying taxes 119
Trading across borders 146
Enforcing contracts 164
Resolving insolvency 103

In summary, the result is heavily skewed by two categories being extremely good, and the rest being bad to terrible. Where we're good, we're surprisingly good. Getting electricity, for example. We rank 29, near Japan (17), France (26) and Italy (28). PRC ranks 98. Several of the bad categories (property registering, starting business, construction permits) are state level tasks. But then so is access to electricity. Interesting that we can do so well in providing hard infrastructure, but not paperwork. On the other hand, it means it's possible to quickly rise up the rankings with bureaucratic reforms.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by vijayk »

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Prasad »

Maruti sales go up 9.5% to 1,46,446 units in October - https://twitter.com/IndianExpress/statu ... 7359683584
Toyota Kirloskar domestic sales up 6.45% yoy http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/com ... m_term=SOF

Car sales seem to be rocketing upwards.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by hanumadu »

Suraj wrote: Starting business 156
I thought the process to start a business has been simplified. 156 is too high for something we hear being reformed continuously.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by hanumadu »

When will september quarter GDP figures come out?
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by hanumadu »

hanumadu wrote:When will september quarter GDP figures come out?
November 30.
http://www.mospi.gov.in/national-accoun ... eases-2017
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Suraj »

All GDP figures are released by CSO two months after the end of the quarter . So yes quarter ended September 30 is reported November 30 . However this is the Advance release . The figures and subsequently updated twice, I think 6 and 12 months after the quarter .
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by achoudhury »

Suraj wrote:Here's the official link:
World Bank Ease of Doing Business Rankings
Subcategory rankings:
Starting business 156
Dealing with construction permits 181
Getting electricity 29
Registering property 154
Getting credit 29
Protecting minority investors 4
Paying taxes 119
Trading across borders 146
Enforcing contracts 164
Resolving insolvency 103

In summary, the result is heavily skewed by two categories being extremely good, and the rest being bad to terrible. Where we're good, we're surprisingly good. Getting electricity, for example. We rank 29, near Japan (17), France (26) and Italy (28). PRC ranks 98. Several of the bad categories (property registering, starting business, construction permits) are state level tasks. But then so is access to electricity. Interesting that we can do so well in providing hard infrastructure, but not paperwork. On the other hand, it means it's possible to quickly rise up the rankings with bureaucratic reforms.
Suraj,

We were 137 in Getting electricity in 2014 and now we are at 29. Likewise we can leapfrog in many. E.g. Getting Credit. We have banks, fintech, now Customers as well but we are hampered in credit revolution as we do not yet have a measure of creditworthiness. We definitely need a Equifax or Experian in India now. Other areas where we would make major jumps next year will be Resolving Insolvency and Paying Taxes. On policy front, we are at first world level in this two area after being in gutter for so long. What is needed is the validation of that policy in execution which will be evident once some cases are resolved through NCLT and GST implementation smoothens. Now if we are able to work on Dealing with construction permits and Registering property, which also requires state level co-ordination, then we can truly hope for sub-50 level in 2019. And unlike Russia's window dressing, this will be achieved through real reforms.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Sicanta »

achoudhury wrote: Suraj,

We were 137 in Getting electricity in 2014 and now we are at 29. Likewise we can leapfrog in many. E.g. Getting Credit. We have banks, fintech, now Customers as well but we are hampered in credit revolution as we do not yet have a measure of creditworthiness. We definitely need a Equifax or Experian in India now. Other areas where we would make major jumps next year will be Resolving Insolvency and Paying Taxes. On policy front, we are at first world level in this two area after being in gutter for so long. What is needed is the validation of that policy in execution which will be evident once some cases are resolved through NCLT and GST implementation smoothens. Now if we are able to work on Dealing with construction permits and Registering property, which also requires state level co-ordination, then we can truly hope for sub-50 level in 2019. And unlike Russia's window dressing, this will be achieved through real reforms.
RBI for setting up public credit registry

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/in ... 476799.cms

RBI sets up task force on ‘Public Credit Registry’

http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/mon ... 920197.ece
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Suraj »

Nice references there, Sicanta! Now that's the kind of material that helps this thread.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by ManishC »

GOI should look into providing State-wise scorecard on ease of doing business, economic and social indicators, quality of Human capital and infrastructure.
Similar to metrics in scoring smart cities but in a centralized Governance portal. We cannot fix if the data is not easily accessible and actionable.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Suraj »

Strong core sector output in September. No base effect, since Sept 2016 was also very strong:
Core sector growth hits 6 month high of 5.2% in September
Eight core sectors grew to a six-month high of 5.2 per cent in September, helped by a robust performance in coal, natural gas and refinery segments, official data showed today. The eight infrastructure sectors — coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertilisers, steel, cement and electricity — had witnessed a growth of 5.3 per cent in September last year. The expansion in September is highest since April, when the core sectors’ growth stood at 2.6 per cent. The production of coal, natural gas and refinery products rose by 10.6 per cent, 6.3 per cent and 8.1 per cent, respectively on annual basis, according to the data released by the commerce and industry ministry. Crude oil output registered a growth of 0.1 per cent during the month under review as compared to a contraction of 4.1 per cent in September 2016. On the other hand, growth rate of steel and cement production was slower in September this year as against the same month previous fiscal. Electricity generation recorded almost flat growth. However, fertiliser output recorded a degrowth during the month under review.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Ananth »

ManishC wrote:GOI should look into providing State-wise scorecard on ease of doing business, economic and social indicators, quality of Human capital and infrastructure.
Similar to metrics in scoring smart cities but in a centralized Governance portal. We cannot fix if the data is not easily accessible and actionable.
See here: http://eodb.dipp.gov.in/

One can further drill into each reform areas.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by Rudradev »

Arnab Goswami interviews Arun Jaitley on many aspects of the economy (among other things).

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Post by ManishC »

Ananth wrote:
ManishC wrote:GOI should look into providing State-wise scorecard on ease of doing business, economic and social indicators, quality of Human capital and infrastructure.
Similar to metrics in scoring smart cities but in a centralized Governance portal. We cannot fix if the data is not easily accessible and actionable.
See here: http://eodb.dipp.gov.in/

One can further drill into each reform areas.
Thanks Ananth!
Spot checked a few links and data seems to be reliable - State report cards needs to be talked about and highlighted (good and bad) by the pink press
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