Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Gus · Post by **Gus** » 01 Dec 2015 10:05

I see rupay stickers on all ATM in erode dist TN. Not sure if shops take it as well.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 01 Dec 2015 10:11

Gus wrote:I see rupay stickers on all ATM in erode dist TN. Not sure if shops take it as well.

Please ask around and post a firsthand report, if you can. Not necessarily about RuPay alone, even.

rohiths · Post by **rohiths** » 01 Dec 2015 10:15

Based on the GDP data and the trajectory, I think we can safely say that India has cleared itself out of the mess that UPA had created. Every economic metric (which is important) is better than in early 2014. Many in BRF had estimated that it would probably take 3 years to clear the UPA mess but it has happened in 1.5 years only. This is the single biggest achievement of the govt which has been missed in all the noise. The economy will accelerate in the next 3.5 years and India will be in a very good position by 2019. The economy in 2019 will be a more balanced one with the right amount of consumption, investment and good sectoral share between manufacturing and services

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 01 Dec 2015 20:11

After RJ, its HR now experimenting with labor law reform ...

>>dna ‏@dna 3m3 minutes ago
Haryana Assembly to bring bill to amend labour laws: Manohar Lal Khattar http://dnai.in/d3pd

soumik · Post by **soumik** » 01 Dec 2015 20:24

It's interesting how the NDA ruled states are proceeding with reforms in both Labor and land laws, I see Jharkhand and Maharashtra(with the SS this will be tricky) changing their own laws next .Along with the implementation of GST this will create a set of states with very business friendly laws. Investment will flock to these states and the opposition ruled states will have to change their own laws to keep up. In short Modi wins!

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 01 Dec 2015 20:57

Hari Seldon wrote:After RJ, its HR now experimenting with labor law reform ...

>>dna ‏@dna 3m3 minutes ago
Haryana Assembly to bring bill to amend labour laws: Manohar Lal Khattar http://dnai.in/d3pd

Haryana would actually be the fourth, not second, NDA state to do this. As mentioned in the last page, RJ, MP and GJ are all ahead.
President clears Madhya Pradesh labour reforms

The wait of the Shivraj Singh Chouhan-led Madhya Pradesh government to usher in labour reforms in the state is over with President Pranab Mukherjee approving amendments to 15 central labour laws.

Some of the key amendments include easing retrenchment norms, three months’ compensation to retrenched workers, raising overtime hours and night shift for women.

Madhya Pradesh is the second state after Rajasthan to be granted presidential assent to its labour law amendments. Gujarat, which had passed a slew of labour law amendments earlier this year, is awaiting presidential assent.

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 02 Dec 2015 01:28

rohiths wrote:Based on the GDP data and the trajectory, I think we can safely say that India has cleared itself out of the mess that UPA had created. Every economic metric (which is important) is better than in early 2014. Many in BRF had estimated that it would probably take 3 years to clear the UPA mess but it has happened in 1.5 years only. This is the single biggest achievement of the govt which has been missed in all the noise. The economy will accelerate in the next 3.5 years and India will be in a very good position by 2019. The economy in 2019 will be a more balanced one with the right amount of consumption, investment and good sectoral share between manufacturing and services

I don't entirely agree. I think there is def some streamlining and added efficiency. More than that however, there is a boost of confidence. It will still take the next few years to clean up the muck.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 02 Dec 2015 03:05

The FinMin MoS talks about the expected theme of the next budget. The four themes address respectively welfare, primary sector, job creation and corporate ease of doing business. It's a new approach to discuss the broad theme a full quarter ahead, presumably with a plan to seek input beforehand.
Sinha spells out four pillars of Budget '16

The first, and major theme, he said, would be the expansion of universal social security, which he hoped would be a historic accomplishment for the National Democratic Alliance government. The roll-out of universal social security would be based on the direct benefits transfer platform, which he said was already working effectively in the employment guarantee programme, for the liquefied petroleum gas subsidy and for pensions and scholarships.

The second theme in the Budget would be agriculture, "an area where we can do much more". The minister singled out crop health cards, agricultural credit, funding for state-led irrigation schemes among others.

The third theme, Sinha said, would be job creation and the various associated programmes - 'Make in India', 'Skill India', 'Start-up India', and so on. The Union government's much-anticipated draft start-up policy, he indicated, would be finalised soon but probably not made public till the end of the year or in the New Year.

The Budget's final theme would be "simplifying the tax structure… Let us see if the committee we have formed has some suggestions by then that we can put in the Finance Bill".

Strange divergence between manufacturing GDP growth and manufacturing PMI, though the GDP data was for July-Sept and this PMI data is for November. The lack of condidence suggests businesses are not confident yet, even though output itself is up.
Manufacturing PMI falls to 25-month low

A day after official data showed high growth in the manufacturing sector, a record since the new gross domestic product series came out, the widely-tracked Nikkei purchasing managers’ index had quite a different story to tell. Manufacturing activities fell to a 25-month low in November because of a slower increase in new work and output.

Subdued demand prevented firms from hiring more hands. Input inflation rose at the quickest pace since May. Output prices were not raised that much, which prompted experts to call the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to cut rates to spur growth, minutes before the RBI was to unveil its monetary policy review.

Interesting that Singapore has now superceded Mauritius as the biggest source of FDI, suggesting fresh inflows rather than companies laundering money through shell entities in Mauritius.
FDI up 13% to $16.6 billion in H1

Foreign direct investment (FDI) in the country grew 13 per cent to $16.6 billion during the April-September period of the current financial year.

The foreign investment was $14.7 billion during April-September 2014, according to the latest figures of the Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP).

During the first half of the financial year, India received most FDI of $6.7 billion from Singapore, followed by Mauritius ($3.6 billion), the Netherlands ($1.09 billion), and Japan ($815 million).

Sectors that attracted highest foreign investment in the period include computer software and hardware ($3.05 billion), trading ($2.3 billion), services and automobile ($1.5 billion each), and telecommunications ($659 million).

We used to import urea worth ~$2 billion (Rs.13000cr) a year until a year ago. Big turnaround from being a chronic importer to surplus producer and exporter in one year.
India to produce surplus urea this year

India will soon become an urea surplus state from a deficit state and start exporting it, Union Fertilizer Minister Ananth Kumar said today.

Kumar told Lok Sabha during question hour that the country will produce 20 lakh tonnes additional urea this year after a number of pro-active steps, including revival of defunct fertilizer plants, taken by the government.

"We will soon become a urea surplus country from a urea deficit country as we are going to produce 20 lakh tonnes additional urea this year. We will start exporting urea soon," he said.

The Minister said there was no crisis of fertilizer anywhere in the country and all states and union territories were satisfied with its availability.

"There is no shortage of fertilizers during the current sowing season," he said.

disha · Post by **disha** » 02 Dec 2015 04:35

Suraj wrote:
India will soon become an urea surplus state from a deficit state and start exporting it, Union Fertilizer Minister Ananth Kumar said today.

Kumar told Lok Sabha during question hour that the country will produce 20 lakh tonnes additional urea this year after a number of pro-active steps, including revival of defunct fertilizer plants, taken by the government.

"We will soon become a urea surplus country from a urea deficit country as we are going to produce 20 lakh tonnes additional urea this year. We will start exporting urea soon," he said.

The Minister said there was no crisis of fertilizer anywhere in the country and all states and union territories were satisfied with its availability.

"There is no shortage of fertilizers during the current sowing season," he said.

I am not surprised. I was wondering the implications when on Aug 15, 2015 - Modi talked of neem coated urea for agriculture (and this is the only urea which is subsidized)., the diversion of urea to industries stopped.

Basically, a whole lot of Urea was siphoned off from agriculture into industrial feed stock creating an imbalance - an artificial shortage in agriculture and lack of robust uptake from manufacturers of urea for the industry.

Imagine the amount of public money that was being siphoned off! Just clearing up this muck led to overall surplus and hence India went from a chronic importer of Urea to a net exporter of urea!

johneeG · Post by **johneeG** » 02 Dec 2015 07:05

Great achievement by Modi sarkaar in making the country Urea surplus within an year. This is big. It should be tom-tommed to farmers. Their help is needed on LAB.

vina · Post by **vina** » 02 Dec 2015 11:23

I am not surprised. I was wondering the implications when on Aug 15, 2015 - Modi talked of neem coated urea for agriculture (and this is the only urea which is subsidized)., the diversion of urea to industries stopped.

Basically, a whole lot of Urea was siphoned off from agriculture into industrial feed stock creating an imbalance - an artificial shortage in agriculture and lack of robust uptake from manufacturers of urea for the industry.

Imagine the amount of public money that was being siphoned off! Just clearing up this muck led to overall surplus and hence India went from a chronic importer of Urea to a net exporter of urea!

Missing the wood for the trees. While this diversion business is real and neem coating cuts it, I am not sure what percentage of urea production in India is neem coated in the first place.

The trick is the huge subsidy burden that was carried when gas prices were high and naphtha prices were high, resulted in automatic shut down of many plants and increase in import cost, and the subsidy of domestic urea encouraged diversion.

With prices falling like a rock of inputs, that has pressure has gone, more Naptha based plants have reopened , diversion down (imported urea costs must have plummeted) , and of course probably neem coating of domestic urea.

Thank oil & gas price correction more than Modi , who does deserve a huge thanks though.

nandakumar · Post by **nandakumar** » 02 Dec 2015 14:59

I am not sure about the science of it. But I understand urea was also being diverted for making explosives for terror. Neem coating eliminates that source of diversion.

vina · Post by **vina** » 02 Dec 2015 15:48

I am not sure about the science of it. But I understand urea was also being diverted for making explosives for terror. Neem coating eliminates that source of diversion.

No way! You are talking gargantuan industrial quantities here. And neem coating doesnt do zilch for that. Urea was being diverted for industrial uses.

mohanty · Post by **mohanty** » 02 Dec 2015 18:11

rohiths wrote: The economy will accelerate in the next 3.5 years and India will be in a very good position by 2019. The economy in 2019 will be a more balanced one with the right amount of consumption, investment and good sectoral share between manufacturing and services

The economy isn't going anywhere. RBI site clearly shows credit growth in India is consistently slowing. Company earnings we have seen are falling. Real estate market is stagnant due to exorbitant prices. Exports are steadily falling.

So the claim that economy will accelerate in next 3.5 years(not sure why not 3 or 4.5) is not based on reality.

But yes, Modi is not at fault for this. But he is at fault for creating unrealistic expectations using his marketing techniques.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 02 Dec 2015 18:25

mohanty wrote:
rohiths wrote: The economy will accelerate in the next 3.5 years and India will be in a very good position by 2019. The economy in 2019 will be a more balanced one with the right amount of consumption, investment and good sectoral share between manufacturing and services
The economy isn't going anywhere. RBI site clearly shows credit growth in India is consistently slowing. Company earnings we have seen are falling. Real estate market is stagnant due to exorbitant prices. Exports are steadily falling.

So the claim that economy will accelerate in next 3.5 years(not sure why not 3 or 4.5) is not based on reality.

But yes, Modi is not at fault for this. But he is at fault for creating unrealistic expectations using his marketing techniques.

Modi is lucky. He will do it.

You might well end up eating your words.

3.5 is because his first term ends then??.

mohanty · Post by **mohanty** » 02 Dec 2015 18:39

chetak wrote:Modi is lucky. He will do it.

You might well end up eating your words.

3.5 is because his first term ends then??.

Ok, that's the 3.5.

I will love to eat my own words. I have been trying to since last 1.5 yrs too when stock market went to moon expecting Modi to do miracle. All we have seen so far is reality catching up to the hype.

Modi may have good intentions but he does not understand how GDP grows and effect of debt. His plans to making India follow China's export driven path won't work. Instead as Rajan of RBI said, we should plan on a domestic demand driven growth.

But the problem is we have had too much demand in last 20 or so years. It can't grow like that going forward without some restructuring which will be painful.

Modi govt was lucky due to oil price fall but instead of giving that windfall to people they have jacked up taxes to hijack that money from people.

The expectations are absolutely out of place.

Raveen · Post by **Raveen** » 02 Dec 2015 18:59

mohanty wrote:
chetak wrote:Modi is lucky. He will do it.

You might well end up eating your words.

3.5 is because his first term ends then??.
Ok, that's the 3.5.

I will love to eat my own words. I have been trying to since last 1.5 yrs too when stock market went to moon expecting Modi to do miracle. All we have seen so far is reality catching up to the hype.

Modi may have good intentions but he does not understand how GDP grows and effect of debt. His plans to making India follow China's export driven path won't work. Instead as Rajan of RBI said, we should plan on a domestic demand driven growth.

But the problem is we have had too much demand in last 20 or so years. It can't grow like that going forward without some restructuring which will be painful.

Modi govt was lucky due to oil price fall but instead of giving that windfall to people they have jacked up taxes to hijack that money from people.

The expectations are absolutely out of place.

Ok Rahul - I mean Mohanty

JTull · Post by **JTull** » 02 Dec 2015 19:04

Hmm, I hear a gripe of increasing taxes! I think they are making unorganised retail sector more accountable, so yes they can't get away without paying taxes as before. What's the evidence for your assertion, mohanty?

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 02 Dec 2015 19:23

Modi is personally lucky. oil prices are a bonus.

petrol prices are high because termite queen busted up the money and left a scorched earth for Modi to bat on.

we don't mind paying because Modi is using it intelligently.

Modi can still ride the internal demand for some time to come. He wants to industrialize to this end, not to follow china.

the commie days are very long gone.

mohanty · Post by **mohanty** » 02 Dec 2015 20:30

JTull wrote:Hmm, I hear a gripe of increasing taxes! I think they are making unorganised retail sector more accountable, so yes they can't get away without paying taxes as before. What's the evidence for your assertion, mohanty?

I am not sure why the gripe of increasing taxes should be surprising. Are there people who like to pay more and more taxes?

Also I am not sure what evidence you want, but if it is on the oil price then it is open fact that we pay now more tax in oil than the actual cost of retail oil coming to market. That is a pure theft and greed of the govt. And this hurts the poor and middle class he most. Not the rich.

About retail unorganized sector not paying taxes, that argument doesn't hold good. Did Modi govt. reduce the income tax for organized sector to compensate them? No! In fact they refuse to even increase tax slabs for years now. Their 2.xx lakh-10 lakh slabs are worthless now. But they almost never raise them meaningfully. The argument always is, "this time our finances and deficits are tight". What if you say, "Dear Govt, this year is my daughter's marriage, I will pay only 10% tax, not 30%"? Govt gets you an IT raid/notice and jail. This is how mafia works.

This isn't a Modi thing. This is what Govt. does. always no matter who is in power.

mohanty · Post by **mohanty** » 02 Dec 2015 20:37

chetak wrote: we don't mind paying because Modi is using it intelligently.

Modi can still ride the internal demand for some time to come. He wants to industrialize to this end, not to follow china.

the commie days are very long gone.

How come you have so less self belief that you think you can handle the money you earned less intelligently than Mr. Modi? This is sad.

And I disagree on China. Modi clearly wanted/wants to emulate China. He even publicly speaks about in forums like "India replacing China" etc etc.

And there is hardly anything commie about china. They are very much capitalist now(except in political sphere).

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 02 Dec 2015 20:48

@mohanty

We have discussed this before. The govt is correct in trying to maintain oil/gas prices in a comfort zone. You don't want to go too low as this is temporary and there will be a shock to the economy when it goes up again. IIRC Modi has never said that he wants to make India an export economy like China. It is Rajan's conjecture. What he has said is he wants to make India a manufacturing hub. India has a lot of pent-up demand. If his manufacturing policy succeeds it is going to mainly feed domestic demand. In China the govt used to suppress local demand and urge manufacturers to export. That is not what he is trying to do. Please don't make assumptions based on conjecture.

Mukesh.Kumar · Post by **Mukesh.Kumar** » 02 Dec 2015 21:03

Used to work closely ith a major Urea procedure during a consulting stint long back. The basic problem in the urea department was misdirected government policy which while trying to help farmers actually harmed them. Kind of went like this in mod 2000's. Mix of Naptha and Gas based plants; Gas more efficient; government wanted to sustain naptha plants, hence it put artificial caps on capacities of gas-plants which were more efficient. Also to manage urea retail prices government gave subsidy as in lack of proper competition people played the market. So most plants with fixed retail price, fixed cost and fixed production quotas increased profits by dumping material in 20 km radius of plant to reduce transport burden. As a result between W. UP and Lucknow large belts were bereft of urea. And between Lucknow and Paradip and Assam entire belt could not get urea because firms were nt interested in transporting there. The only way farmers got it was from black market.

It was a holy mess which unwieldy policy made worse.

Hearing this news makes me very happy, but I hope that the government would have done away with the badly thought out urea subsidies that ended up hurting farmers and efficient producers.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 02 Dec 2015 21:26

A reminder: This is NOT the politics thread. Please keep discussions on politics out of here. Mohanty, since you're a newcomer here, political economy issues go into the politics thread. Thanks.

nandakumar · Post by **nandakumar** » 02 Dec 2015 21:35

vina wrote:
I am not sure about the science of it. But I understand urea was also being diverted for making explosives for terror. Neem coating eliminates that source of diversion.
No way! You are talking gargantuan industrial quantities here. And neem coating doesnt do zilch for that. Urea was being diverted for industrial uses.

I am in Chennai. I wish I could add something more to the debate. But my mind is distracted with no electricity, possibility of no safe drinking water if power shut down lasts another day. Believe me money doesnt get anything you want. Not always. Sorry Vina. I am rambling. But that is how things are at the moment.

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 02 Dec 2015 22:28

India has offset opportunity of $50-60 billion: Saraswat

http://www.business-standard.com/articl ... 037_1.html

The offset opportunities in defence and aerospace for India are estimated to be $50-60 billion out of the $150 billion market by 2025, said V.K. Saraswat, a member of NITI Aayog.

He said with the recent policy changes, the canvas of offset had increased and it had become profitable to manufacture aerospace and defence systems in India

The former secretary of defence, however, suggested that the country should remove the impediments to tap the huge opportunity the offset offers.

He called for bringing down the cost of capital, increasing investment on research and development, synergy among research laboratories, academics institutions and industry, reverse brain drain, focus on designing, smart manufacturing, value addition and ensuring quality and on time delivery.

Saraswant, who also served as scientific advisor to the defence minister, pointed out that the Maintenance Repair and Overhaul (MRO) alone offered $2.6 billion opportunity by 2020 but disability factors were impeding the growth.

He said new MRO facilities were not coming up because of the impediments like high taxation. "Most of our aircrafts go to Singapore, Malaysia and Dubai for MRO.

"The reason is state governments have got huge VAT and other taxation on all the spare parts which come here. On top of it, the government of India has some duties.

"This tax structure is not making the service sector competitive."

He said even transportation cost of taking the aircraft to Sri Lanka or Dubai was lower than doing business here.

The defence scientist pointed out that the high cost of capital was another disability factor. He also called for infrastructure development and supply of electricity at reasonable rate to tap the potential.

He hoped that the civil aviation policy will address issues like high taxation.

The former director general of DRDO believes that if the ease of doing business was ensured and some disability factors taken care of as part of Make in India programme, investment in defence will rise considerably.

"Already there are agencies wanting to set up lot of activities in Bengaluru, Hyderabad and Pune. If we increase 49 percent (FDI cap) to more on case to case basis, that will also attract more investment."

Stating that the sector will not be sustainable unless there were exports, Saraswat was optimistic the exports would get a push with the proposed policy.

He said India could tap the export potential by selling defence systems like Akash missile to friendly countries. He believes India would have an edge because the cost of manufacturing was still competitive.

Vipul · Post by **Vipul** » 03 Dec 2015 00:09

Bihar fastest growing state, Maharashtra tops in economic size: Report.

Bihar has emerged as the fastest growing state in terms of gross state domestic product (GSDP), clocking a growth rate of 17.06 per cent in FY 2014-15, while Maharashtra grew by 11.69 per cent to become the biggest state with Rs 16.87 trillion economy, says a report.

Tamil Nadu and Uttar Pradesh come in the second place, but far behind Maharashtra, with a GSDP of Rs 9.67 trillion each, according to the report by Brickwork Ratings.

However, Gujarat leads Maharashtra when it comes to composition of industry in GSDP at 27.26 per cent, versus the latter’s 25.18 per cent, the domestic rating outfit said.
Fastest-growing states are Bihar at 17.06 per cent, Madhya Pradesh at 16.86 per cent and Goa at 16.43 per cent, while the newly-formed Telangana, with expansion of 5.3 per cent, is the laggard.

Along with Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra is at the forefront of development in the services sector with a healthy growth in the IT/BPO/KPO space, it said.

On infant mortality rate (the number of infant deaths for every 1,000 live births), Maharashtra’s 25 is half of the national average of 50.
Maharashtra is also the leader when it comes to dependence on taxes collected within the state, which account for 70 per cent of total revenue receipts, it said, adding it is followed by Gujarat and Tamil Nadu.

Bihar, Odisha, Tamil Nadu and Kerala spend the most on pensions, while Karnataka and Maharashtra have kept this item of expense “reasonable”, the report said. Andhra, West Bengal, UP, Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu account for about 60 per cent of the outstanding debt of States. Agriculture contributed 19 per cent of states’ GSDP and supported between 40 to 60 per cent of the workforce.

Top five states with higher share of farm sector are Punjab, MP, Bihar, Andhra and West Bengal, where agriculture contributes between 23 and 29 per cent of the GSDP, the report said, but rued the key segment remains neglected for 60 years in spite of emphasis on it by all political parties.
“The futures markets are not well developed and farmers have to bear the price risk of crops. That results in everyone going for the same crop like sugarcane and the sugar factories unable to crush the standing cane.”

Contribution of industry to states’ GDP is very low at an average of 27 per cent compared to 40 per cent-47 per cent in other developing countries.
“Access to finance, regular technology upgradation, skill enhancement, regular supply of power and market support through stronger links with larger firms have to be improved to boost competitiveness of manufacturing sector,” it said. On the expenditure front, the report said states spent an average 43 per cent towards social services, 22 per cent on economic services and 23 per cent on general services.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 03 Dec 2015 10:37

Govt to tighten curbs on steel imports to aid local producers

India will step up curbs on steel imports before the end of the year to combat a rising tide of cheap shipments and aid local producers, according to Steel Secretary Aruna Sundarajan. Shares of Tata Steel and JSW Steel rallied.

The basket of products that face a 20 per cent safeguard tax may be widened beyond hot-rolled coil, Sundarajan said. The curbs, which could include additional measures, may be announced in about two weeks, Sundarajan told the station on Wednesday. India is among countries facing a surge in steel shipments from China, the world's top producer, where slowing local consumption has spurred mills to ship unprecedented volumes. India's plan for additional barriers adds to signs that importers are pushing back with greater vigor against the tide, potentially capping China's exports into 2016.

"In the coming few weeks, India will have tough measures in place to provide a level playing field for domestic producers," Sundarajan said, estimating that imports were set to jump to 14 million tonnes (mt) to 15 mt in the financial year ending March 31. Inbound shipments were 10 mt in 2014-2015, ministry data shows.

Services PMI at five-month low in November as confidence slumps

India's services industry barely expanded in November, growing at its weakest pace in five months, as firms grew increasingly gloomy about the coming year, a business survey showed on Thursday.

The Nikkei/Markit Services Purchasing Managers' Index fell sharply to 50.1 in November from October's eight-month high of 53.2. A reading above 50.0 indicates growth

For the first time in the 10-year history of the survey, the business expectations sub-index tipped below 50, falling to 49.9 from 53.7 and highlighting firms' pessimism regarding prospects.

"Gloomy PMI data show a broad-based weakness in output, with little prospect of a rebound apparent in the near term," said Pollyanna De Lima, economist at Markit.

"Firms were concerned about stuttering demand and tough economic conditions."

The downbeat outlook came despite Asia's third-largest economy expanding 7.4% annually in the July-September quarter - outpacing China.

Commerce Ministry meeting with pulse importers on Thursday

Concerned over widening gap in demand and supply of pulses leading to exorbitant rise in prices, the Commerce Ministry will hold a meeting tomorrow with importers on their strategy on dealing with the situation in the coming months.

The meeting will be chaired by the Commerce Secretary. The secretaries from Consumer Affairs and Agriculture will also attend the meeting, an official said.

Based on the inputs from private trade, the government will decide on the amount of pulses to be imported by PSUs for the rest of the year to address the crisis.

The meeting will deliberate on quantity of pulses that India can purchase from the overseas market at a time where there is sluggish supply of lentils even in the global market.

Production in key growing countries Myanmar, Canada and Australia has fallen sharply due to droughts.

Pulses prices in most retail markets are still ruling as high as Rs 180 per kg due to fall in the domestic output by 2 million tonnes in the 2014-15 crop year (July-June) following 14 per cent deficit monsoon rainfall.

According to the official data, private players have imported 2.23 million tonnes of pulses during April-September of this fiscal, while the state-owned MMTC has imported 5,000 tonnes of tur.

The country's pulses production was 17.20 million tonnes in the 2014-15 crop year, much lower than the requirement of 25 million tonnes. The gap is being met through imports.

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 03 Dec 2015 17:52

The decision making process on something as simple as pulses import is still too slow. This should have been taken care off at least 6 months earlier when there were indications that there will be a shortfall. A lot of improvement needs to be done with such simple things in governance.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 03 Dec 2015 21:36

xposting from another thread:

From the Dept of Agriculture, Cooperation and Farmer's Welfare:
Commodity Profile for Pulses-November, 2015
Department website
From the first PDF, the futures prices indicate that pulses will moderate in price over December and January. However, it's also true that the weak monsoon has exacerbated prices, especially for tur and urad dal. With other countries also affected by drought, it's became a perfect storm situation. Approx 2-3lakh tons has been found in the hands of hoarders, but it's a long way from bridging the demand supply gap. It will require a multiyear crop planting financial package because otherwise farmers will just plant what's more profitable. Right now, just the gap between demand and supply exceeds the entire production of most countries.

I dispute the notion that anything could have been done 6 months ago that would have been substantial. Could anti-hoarding measures have been put in place ? Sure. But the actions barely registered a blip because the shortfall much exceeds anything that was recovered from the hoarders. We're talking about a deficit of 8MT between demand and supply. We can bridge about 3MT through imports. They rest cannot be fixed overnight.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 04 Dec 2015 21:56

GST panel agrees upon rates, in line with what the opposition too wishes. Hopefully this will generate the passage of the amendment bill.
GST panel keeps standard rate at 17-18%

In what could help the government strike a deal with the Congress on the proposed Goods and Services Tax (GST), a panel, headed by chief economic adviser Arvind Subramanian, has recommended that 1% tax proposed to be levied on the inter-state trade of goods to help the manufacturing states be done away with. This is one of the major demands of the Congress.

In a report submitted to Finance Minister Arun Jaitley on Friday, the committee recommended that the standard GST rate be in the range of 16.9-17.9%. The standard rate would apply to most goods and services under the new indirect tax regime.

However, the panel also recommended other rates, with the lowest rate for goods at 12% and the highest rate at 40%. The highest rate is for demerit goods such as alcohol.

In fact, the panel said petroleum and alcohol should be brought under the GST at an early opportunity. According to the constitution amendment Bill on GST, petroleum will be out of GST for the time being after which the proposed GST council will take a call on it. Alcohol was to be out of GST, according to the Bill.

The Subramanian committee estimated the revenue neutral rate (RNR) of GST at 15%. The RNR is the rate at which the states and the Centre would not have any revenue loss or gain after GST comes into being.

The equity compensation model has been used in China successfully:
Gadkari backs equity for land to farmers in road projects

Farmers must be allowed upto 10% equity in road projects in return for their land acquired as a measure to address land acquisition hurdles delaying infrastructure projects, road transport and highways minister Nitin Jairam Gadkari said today.

He also announced the government will soon award development of 18 roads projects on hybrid annuity model.

“Five to 10% equity sharing with the farmers can be done. Oppression of the poor will not happen. Villages, poor persons, labourers and farmers are this government’s priorities,” Gadkari said addressing investors at a Confederation of Indian Industries (CII) summit on Public Private Partnership (PPP). Farmers in rural areas will also get compensation equal to four times the land value.

After subsidies, even MSPs are being moved to the DBT system:
Now a DBT for cotton farmers' minimum support prices

In a landmark change in the way it adminsters minimum support prices (MSPs) for crops, the central government is set to begin direct transfer of cash into farmers' accounts, instead of physical procurement of cotton from wholesale markets.

Normally, it intervenes through state federations or its Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) arm, when the market price falls below the MSP. Under MSP operations, CCI has so far this year procured a little over 100,000 bales (170 kg each), largely in a few districts of Telangana and Andhra. Last year, it had procured a record 8.6 million bales, nearly a fourth of overall cotton output.

The Centre is now introducing a 'Direct Payment Deficiency System (DPDS)' under which the difference between selling price and MSP would be borne by it. The amount of the price difference would be transferred from the ministry of textiles to the respective state governments for distribution.

gashish · Post by **gashish** » 05 Dec 2015 03:32

Read very interesting view/interpretation on recent RBI notification (Schedule 11, Point 4) on my LinkedIn newsfeed:

RBI effectively lifts all FDI restrictions, including etail & retail

Let me translate that for you. All of us Venture Capitalists in India operate under a regime called "Alternative Investment Funds" or AIF, regulated by SEBI.

<snip>

Now to the RBI notification.

If you read it, it does one simple thing - in one magnificent stroke, it says that any Alternative Investment Fund, as long as it is sponsored or managed by an Indian resident, is to be considered as a domestic vehicle. Regardless of what percentage of its corpus is from overseas funds.

This means that, hey, ANYTHING we invest in, now is a domestic investment.

And as a domestic investor, we can back e-com companies, insurance companies, retail, defence firms, whatever.

Wow. This means the end of FDI restrictions as we now it.

Let's say I'm Walmart. Till now I couldn't invest in an Indian retail company. FDI restrictions, you see. But here's what I decide to do.

I set up an AIF, under SEBI. Let's call this the Martwal Fund. I find an Indian manager for this AIF. I put, say a billion dollars into it from Walmart's balance sheet. My Indian manager puts his fair share, say a hundred dollars. The Indian manager affirms that he acts independently.

And, voila, Martwal is now a domestic entity. Which can invest in any sector under the sun. So Martwal then backs a company building a chain of supermarkets in India. Sounds like a good idea?

I believe this is little optimistic interpretation of notification, ignoring tax implications and AIF has to go thru FIPB for dollars coming in etc. Nevertheless, a good move that is hidden in plain sight.

Prem · Post by **Prem** » 05 Dec 2015 06:57

http://www.hindustantimes.com/india/wor ... EE5jK.html

World’s richest, Tirupati Temple may move stash to Modi’s gold scheme

The richest Hindu temple in the world could soon come to the rescue of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s plan to recycle tonnes of idle gold and cut economy-hurting imports.
The gold monetisation scheme, aimed at persuading individuals, institutions and rich temples to deposit some of their gold stash with banks to recycle, has only attracted about one kg in a month out of a total hoard of over 20,000 tonnes.But the Sri Venkateswara Swamy Temple, popularly known as the Tirupati Temple that is believed to have been the abode of Lord Venkateswara for 5,000 years, may become the biggest contributor with more than 5.5 tonnes of gold.“It’s a good scheme,” said Yanamala Ramakrishnudu, the finance minister of Andhra Pradesh, where the temple is located. “We have already issued a directive to go for the scheme.”
India is the world’s second-biggest consumer of gold after China and the country’s insatiable appetite meant imports of the precious metal accounted for 28% of India’s trade deficit in the year ending March 2013.Seeking divine blessings, devotees have offered billions of dollars worth of jewellery, bars and coins to temples over the centuries. Most temples are secretive about their stash and their gold is often stored in subterranean vaults.Tirupati has already deposited most of its gold with banks under previous monetisation schemes that offer interest of about 1%, said D. Sambasiva Rao, executive officer of the trust that manages the temple.“They (temple investment committee) will evaluate and whichever scheme is beneficial we are going to do that,” he said, adding the temple will move its entire hoard to Modi’s programme if convinced.The new scheme offers annual interest of up to 2.5%.Rao said the temple would take a final decision in the next 10-15 days.The temple gets offerings of almost one tonne of gold every year and all of that could also be deposited under the new scheme once a decision is made, he added.But Mumbai’s two-century-old Shree Siddhivinayak temple, which is devoted to Lord Ganesha, remains unconvinced as banks accept deposits only after gold is melted down, leading to a potential loss in weight due to impurities.The government remains hopeful individuals and institutions will participate in the scheme under which banks will melt the deposited gold and loan it to jewellers.The scheme “will help in reducing our gold imports and save foreign exchange and deal with the problem of current account deficit”, the finance ministry said in a statement on Friday.

disha · Post by **disha** » 05 Dec 2015 07:28

Suraj wrote:After subsidies, even MSPs are being moved to the DBT system:
Now a DBT for cotton farmers' minimum support prices
In a landmark change in the way it adminsters minimum support prices (MSPs) for crops, the central government is set to begin direct transfer of cash into farmers' accounts, instead of physical procurement of cotton from wholesale markets.

Normally, it intervenes through state federations or its Cotton Corporation of India (CCI) arm, when the market price falls below the MSP. Under MSP operations, CCI has so far this year procured a little over 100,000 bales (170 kg each), largely in a few districts of Telangana and Andhra. Last year, it had procured a record 8.6 million bales, nearly a fourth of overall cotton output.

The Centre is now introducing a 'Direct Payment Deficiency System (DPDS)' under which the difference between selling price and MSP would be borne by it. The amount of the price difference would be transferred from the ministry of textiles to the respective state governments for distribution.

Does anybody realize the implications of this?

I will be the first to bet that after successful implementation for the cotton farmers this will be rolled out to other cash crops like tobacco, sugarcane, jute etc. Other than the roll out., this will eliminate several things including an unnecessary middlemen. For example, a authorized wholesale buyer can go to a farmer, even if it is a marginal farmer and buy his cotton crop at an agreed upon rate. All the farmer has to do is show the receipt and the buyer id and claim the difference if lesser than the MSP., directly into his account. Farmer does not have to haul his cotton to the market, wait for the market to open up and wait around in line. Saves trouble to the farmer. Saves government money to haul away the produce and store it in godown and then redirect it to the textile market. Now take a step further., the textile markets become their own authorized wholesale buyer and buy directly from the farmer. This eliminates the need for the entire FCI process! Imagine the increase in productivity!

Now take a step further., from cotton farmers to oil seeds. To fruit. All GOI has to do is issue is an MSP (note there is no MSP for fruits, oil seeds) but imagine the possibilities! Extend this to food crops. This will eliminate FCI as the middle man. Issue with FCI were the godowns where the food used to go to rot and then diverted to liquor brewers. All of that gone.

Coupled with GST., a wholesale buyer of rice can buy rice from Bengal and Manipur and Mizoram and if the rice is below an MSP, the farmer gets his balance. The local rice farmers who cannot compete on the price point will move to other more lucrative crops like oil seeds or intercrop with other crops. This also induces the farmer to be productive, since his goal will be to farm the crop below MSP., any upside is bonus. And the risk to identify and haul the produce to an FCI will be eliminated.

This is game changer. So keep an eye on it for its progress. I want to hear no news of rotting food in FCI godowns. This is the first step towards it.

disha · Post by **disha** » 05 Dec 2015 07:42

This is the one speech by Modi that I wanted to post here on economy thread., got distracted.

http://www.narendramodi.in/text-of-pm-s ... 015-385917

The text is in Hindi in the above link and one has to scroll down after the share "this" tweets.

I am reproducing the text below:

उपस्थित सभी महानुभव और इस summit में पधारे हुए सभी वरिष्ठजन
आपने विषय तय किया है कि हम उज्वल भारत की दिशा में है या नहीं ?
मुझे विश्वास है कि ये जो दो दिन मंथन चलेगा पक्ष-विपक्ष में अनेक विचार उभरकर के आएंगे, नए सुझाव आएंगे, स्थितियों का मूल्याकंन होगा, परिस्थिति का आंकलन होगा और उस सब के द्वारा कुछ न कुछ बातें उभर कर आती हैं जो देश के लिए काम आती हैं।
मैं हिन्दुस्तान टाइम्स को और शोभना जी को बधाई देता हूं कि पिछले 12 साल से लगातार ये उनका अनुष्ठान चल रहा है, जिसमें सभी विचार के पक्ष-विपक्ष के विचार के लोग आते हैं, मिलते हैं, संवाद करते हैं। आज जो वैश्विक परिस्थिति है उसमें By and large इस बात को स्वीकृति मिली हुई है कि दुनिया की बड़ी economies में भारत सबसे तेज गति से आगे बढ़ने वाला देश है। और जब भारत सबसे आगे बढ़ने वाला देश माना गया है, तो दूसरी तरफ देखें, तो विश्व की स्थिति पूरी तरह Slowdown की है। China की तो बहुत सी चीजें पिछले दिनों उजागर हुई। Euro region के अंदर 1.5 percent GDP आकर के अटक गया है और ऐसे में world bank कह रही है कि भारत का जीडीपी 7.5 percent और already पिछले तीन महीने का जो हिसाब आया है वो 7.4 आया। अगर आंकड़ों के हिसाब से देखा जाए तो, ये हम मानकर के चलते हैं कि भारत उज्वल भविष्य की दिशा में बहुत ही सफलता पूर्वक आगे बढ़ रहा है। ये अचानक नहीं होता है और आज की भारतीय स्थिति को समझना है तो एक वैश्विक संदर्भ में देखना होता है।
दूसरा, हमारे बीते हुये कल के संदर्भ में भी देखना आवश्यक होता है। अगर हम हमारे बीते हुए दो साल, पांच साल जो भी तय करें उसको अगर हम नजरअंदाज कर दें और फिर तराजू लेकर के बैठेंगे तो बात सही नहीं निकलेगी। लेकिन मैं जानता हूं कि यह बहुत मुश्किल काम है। क्योंकि इसके लिए एक खुला मन चाहिए, एक साहस चाहिए कि हम कहां थे, किस हालात में थे। अब उसमें से निकलना कितना कठिन था। चारों तरफ निराशा का माहौल था। यहां बैठे हुए जो उद्योगकार हैं, वो एक पैर तो already बाहर रख चुके थे और दूसरा ले जाने की तैयारी कर रहे थे। अगर इस रूप को पहले ध्यान में लिया जाए और फिर देखा जाए, तो पता चलेगा कि हां भाई ये समझने के लिए मोदी की जरूरत नहीं है, अपने आप समझ आता है कि काफी बदलाव आया है। और इसलिये मैं आशा करूंगा कि हम चीजों को इन दो प्रमुख बातें हैं, एक वैश्विक परिवेश, एक हमारा बीता हुआ कल। और ये जो कुछ भी परिणाम आया है एक तो stable government होना वो अपने आपमें एक बहुत बड़ा योगदान होता है। इसे कोई नकार नहीं सकता है। कितनी ही अच्छी पार्टी हो, अच्छे लोग हों लेकिन अगर factual mandate है, तो आशंकाओं का माहौल बना रहता है। करेंगे नहीं करेंगे, कर पाएंगे नहीं कर पाएंगे। तो सबसे पहले जो बदलाव आया है, जो हमें उज्वल भविष्य की दिशा में ले जाने वाले का अगर सबसे पहला कोई क्रेडिट जाता है और सबसे पहला यशस्वी कदम कोई है तो हिन्दुस्तान की जनता ने उन्होंने बहुमत वाला mandate दिया। Credit goes to सवा सौ करोड़ हिन्दुस्तानी है। ये बहुत बड़ा काम देश की जनता ने किया है।
सरकार जब परिवर्तन लाती है अचानक नहीं लाती, एक लम्बा परिश्रम करना पड़ता है। अब हमें मालूम है कि world bank ease of doing business का rating करती रहती है। कई वर्षों से या तो हम स्थिर हैं या फिर लुढ़क जाते हैं। आगे जाने की तो अवस्था हमारे नसीब में ही नहीं थी। और हम भी ऐसे आदी हो गये थे कि हां गुजारा कर लो। मन से हमनें उस स्थिति को स्वीकार कर लिया था। इतने कम समय में अचानक 12 point उछलकर के आगे बढ़ना। दुनिया के जितने भी लोग मिलते हैं वो इस बात को ध्यान से कह रहे हैं कि भई इतना बड़ा jump कैसे लगा। और ease of doing business तब होता है जब राज्य सरकारें, केन्द्र सरकारें मिलकर के निश्चित दिशा में सुधार अभियान चलाते हैं। सरलीकरण करते हैं। Minimum Government Maximum Governance को साकार करते हैं। 20 forms हैं उसको 2 कर देते हैं। प्रक्रिया तीन साल चलती है, उसको छह महीने में ले आते हैं। ऐसे एक-एक चीज , और इसके लिए मैंने पहले राज्यों के सभी अधिकारियों को बुलाया। एक 100 point का चार्टर दिया। दो दिन का workshop किया। आग्रह किया।

लेकिन सबसे खुशी की बात इस form में समझने वाली जो बात है, वो यह है, 12 point उछल कर जाना अच्छी बात ,है अच्छी दिशा है। लेकिन उसमें सबसे बड़ी महत्वपूर्ण बात है, उन राज्यों ने कमाल करकर के दिखाया है। जिसकी तरफ कभी हिन्दुस्तान की आर्थिक जगत वालों का ध्यान कभी जाता ही नहीं है। ओडिशा, झारखंड, छत्तीसगढ़, ease of doing business में ये rank profile बढ़ा है अपना। इसका मतलब यह हुआ कि हिन्दुस्तान के मुख्य धारा में जिन राज्यों को आर्थिक विकास यात्रा में योगदान कभी गिना नहीं जाता था, वे आज lead role कर रहे हैं। इसका मतलब ये हुआ कि राज्यों में एक नई ताकत, नई ऊर्जा, नया विश्वास पैदा हुआ है। भारत को आगे बढ़ना है तो दिल्ली से देश आगे नहीं बढ़ सकता है। राज्यों के मजबूत खम्बों पर ही देश खड़ा हो सकता है। और अगर हम इस psyche करके चलते हैं कि दिल्ली देने वाला है और राज्य लेने वाला है। तो देश आगे नहीं बढ़ेगा। राज्य और दिल्ली दोनों मिलकर के कंधे से कंधा मिलाकर के चलें, एक दिशा में चलें, गति समान बनाने की कोशिश करें। परिणाम अपने आप निकल आएंगे।

नीति आयोग का जो गठन हुआ है। उसका मूल प्रयास यह है कि राज्य और केन्द्र मिलकर के काम करें। पहली बार केन्द्र और राज्य के पैसों का आवंटन कैसे किया जाए 14 Finance commission ने 42 percent रुपये राज्यों को देने के लिए कह दिया। स्थिति ये बनी है कि आज देश का जो पूरा खजाना है उस खजाने में से करीब 65 प्रतिशत खजाना राज्यों की जेब में है, सिर्फ 35 प्रतिशत दिल्ली के पास है। ये पहले कभी नहीं था। पहले reverse था। 35 प्रतिशत राज्यों के पास था 65 प्रतिशत दिल्ली के पास। ये बदलाव आया। उसके बाद करना था तो मैंने राज्यों के मुख्यमंत्रियों की कमेटी बनाई उनको कहा कि देखिए भाई ये काम करना है आप मिल बैठकर के तय करके लाओ। अब तक क्या होता था दिल्ली तय करता था ये करेंगे ये नहीं करेंगे। पहली बार हुआ कि राज्यों ने मुख्यमंत्रियों ने मिलकर के तय किया कि ऐसा करिए। और मैं राज्यों के मुख्यमंत्रियों का अभिनन्दन करता हूं कि उन्होंने भी दिल्ली के प्रति उदारता भी रखी और अपनी चिंता भी की और ऐसा एक समावेशी व्यवस्था बना कर के दी जिसको हमने लागू कर दी । हम राज्यों को कैसे साथ लें। हमारे देश में हम चाहते हैं export हो लेकिन राज्यों का agenda ही नहीं है। और इसलिये quality production, quality packaging, quality branding ये राज्यों की कोई initiative है क्या, राज्यों के उसकी incentive, कोई scheme है क्या। export करने वालों के लिए राज्य कुछ करता है क्या। पहली बार हमने राज्यों में Export Promotion Council बनाने का आग्रह किया। और राज्यों को कहा कि आप अपने राज्य में इसके लिये जो काम करने वाले लोग हैं उनको जरा प्रोत्साहित कीजिये उनको मिलिये उनकी कठिनाइयां समझिये औऱ ग्लोबल मार्केट में वो कैसे जा सकते हैं।

उसी प्रकार से हमारा इतना बड़ा देश है। हम इंडिया कहते हैं, भारत कहते हैं, तो दुनिया को ये समझ नहीं आता कि हम क्या कह रहे हैं। ज्यादा से ज्यादा उसको मुम्बई का पता है, दिल्ली का पता है, कलकत्ता का पता है। IT revolution के बाद बैंगलोर, हैदराबाद का पता है। पूरे हिन्दुस्तान की ताकत विश्व को मालूम नहीं है। हमारे राज्यों को दुनिया पहचाने ये बहुत आवश्यक है। हमारे राज्यों की अपनी-अपनी ताकत है। पहली बार हमने विदेश व्यवस्था के अंदर राज्यों को जोड़ने का सक्रिय प्रयास किया है। विदेश विभाग में special राज्यों के लिए अलग डिपार्टमेंट बनाया है। और विश्व के नेताओं का राज्यों से मिलना-जुलना बढ़े, राज्यों की ताकत पहचाने। भारत इतना बड़ा विशाल देश है, हम सिर्फ दिल्ली से हिन्दुस्तान दुनिया को नहीं दिखा सकते। राज्यों की ताकत दिखाएंगे तो बदलाव आएगा। ये जो दिशा है वो दिशा बदलाव लाती है।

कभी-कभार आर्थिक दृष्टि से हम लोग उस सोच के लोग हैं। मान लीजिये यानी इसमें दोष, कुल मिलाकर हमने कई वर्षों से जो सुना है हमारी जो सोच बनी है, तो हम चीजों को उसी दायरे में देखते हैं। अगर दिल्ली सरकार ये कहे कि हम एक साल में 20 हजार मेगावाट बिजली के कारखाने लगाएंगे। डेढ़ लाख करोड़ रुपये का पूंजी निवेश करेंगे। तो आर्थिक जगत में जरूर लिखा जाएगा वाह, सरकार कुछ कर रही है। बड़ा कमाल का काम कर रही है। सरकार बहुत तेजी से आगे बढ़ रही है। क्या मोदी ने decision ले लिया। क्यों 21 हजार मेगा वॉट बिजली एक साल में , लेकिन मोदी ने छोटा काम किया| हिन्दुस्तान के 100 शहरों के साथ MOU किया LED Bulb, street light में LED Bulb बदलना, घरों में LED Bulb बदलना अब तक बीस शहरों का काम पूरा कर दिया। 83 शहरों का काम चल रहा है। जिस दिन ये 100 शहरों का काम पूरा हो जाएगा LED का उस दिन इस देश में 21500 मेगा वॉट बिजली बचेगी। 21500 मेगा वॉट बिजली अगर मोदी कारखाना लगाता है तो हिन्दुस्तान टाइम्स में तो मैं नहीं कह सकता हूं। लेकिन किसी न किसी अखबार में तो Headline हो जाती है। मोदी ने 21500 मेगा वॉट का बिजली का कारखाना लगा दिया। क्योंकि हमने वो सोचा है। 21500 मेगा वॉट बिजली के कारखाने ने सवा लाख करोड़ रुपया का investment मतलब देश का सवा लाख करोड़ रुपया बच गया। LED Bulb लगाने से इन 100 शहरों को और उन सौ शहरों के नागरिकों को हर साल 45000 करोड़ रुपये की बचत होगी। 45000 करोड़ रूपये आप कल्पना कर सकते हैं कि बदलाव कैसे आता है।

अभी मैंने एक छोटा सा Pilot project के रूप में काम किया। चंडीगढ़ में हमने कहा कि जरा technology का उपयोग करके थोड़ा बारीकी से देखें चंडीगढ़ को कैरोसीन मुक्त बनाना। विनोद शर्मा अगर यहां होंगे तो उनको कुछ ओर सुनाई देगा। मैं कैरोसीन मुक्त कह रहा हूं। चंडीगढ़ में हर वर्ष 30 लाख लीटर कैरोसीन जाता है। उसमें subsidy जाती है करीब साढ़े तीन करोड़ रूपये की। अब चंडीगढ़ ऐसा शहर है जहां लोगों के पास गैस सिलेंडर भी है फिर कैरोसीन जा रहा है। मतलब कहीं गड़बड़ है। मैंने टेक्नोलोजी का उपयोग किया। मैंने कहा देखो भई और आप जानकर के हैरान होंगे 80 percent कैरोसीन उन घरों में जाता ही नहीं था। फिर भी सरकार का जाता था। और पैसे जाते थे। import करना पड़ता था, खर्च होता था। कहीं ओर चला जाता था। हमने तय किया कि भई जहां गैस सिलंडर है, घर में बिजली उसको कैरोसीन की क्या जरूरत है उसको कोई जरूरत ही नहीं। 80 प्रतिशत कैरोसीन बचा। लेकिन ये जांच करते समय ध्यान में आया कि 3200 गरीब परिवार ऐसे थे जिनमें कैरोसीन का इस्तेमाल होता था। हमने तय किया कि उनको गैस सिलंडर पहुंचाएंगे। और चंडीगढ़ को कैरोसीन मुक्त करेंगे। चंडीगढ़ को कैरोसीन मुक्त करना मतलब सरकार की तिजोरी में बहुत बड़ी मात्रा में subsidy चोरी होती थी बंद हो गई। Environment को जो नुकसान हो रहा था बंद हो गया। 30 लाख लीटर कैरोसीन जो की डीज़ल में मिक्स होता था, जो total pollution समस्या पैदा करता था वो रुक गया। 30 लाख लीटर कैरोसीन जो की हम विदेशों से import करते थे, देश का फॉरन एक्सचैंज जाता था वो रुक गया। crude oil लाते थे refine करते थे।

मैं देश के संदर्भ में, मैं सिर्फ ये चीजें बताता हूं कि दिशा क्या है। इससे पता चलता है कि आप देखिये गैस सिलंडर, हमारे यहां गैस सिलंडर को हमने Direct Benefit Transfer के साथ जोड़ दिया बैंकों में सीधा subsidy देना शुरू कर दिया। पहले जितने गैस सिलेंडर जाते थे और जब डायरेक्ट बेनिफिट सीधा बैंक Account में जाने लगा, तो करोड़ो की तादाद में गैस सिलंडर लेने वाले कोई निकले ही नहीं। मतलब करोड़ों गैस सिलंडर बच गए यानी की करोड़ों गैस सिलंडर की subsidy बच गई। यानी targeted subsidy। आज देश में अगर मोदी ये निर्णय करता कि हम इतनी subsidy कट कर देंगे। तो जो अपने आप को reformist मानते हैं, वे हफ्ते भर मोदी की तालियां बजाते कि यार subsidy मोदी ने निकाली है। है आदमी में दम है। लेकिन Targeted Subsidy कर के leakages रोक कर के देश के धन को बचाने वाला मोदी reform नहीं दिखता है। और इसलिये सोचने वालों को भी दिशा पकड़नी पड़ेगी कि हम जिसे काम मानते थे। वो ही काम नहीं होता है, जो हम परिणाम चाहते थे, वो परिणाम किसी और रास्ते से भी आ सकता है। देश का भी भला हो सकता है और welfare state के नाते हमारा रास्ता नहीं चला जाता। और इसलिए हम चीजों को कैसे बनाते हैं।

हमारे देश में हम लोगों का स्वभाव कैसा है। हम मान लीजिये विमान में जा रहे हैं, क्योंकि यहां सब विमान वाले बैठे हुए हैं। कुछ पढ़ने की किताबें कुछ चीज बगल वाले सीट खाली है वहां रख दी। हमारी तो सीट पर हम बैठे हैं। बगल वाली सीट हमारी नहीं है। लेकिन हमनें अपनी कुछ चीजें रखी हैं कुछ छोटा बैग,पाउच,किताब रख दी। और विमान चलने से पहले-पहले आखिरी इंसान आ गया और उसकी वो सीट वहां बैठ गया। तो हमें क्या लगता है मेरी सीट ले ली। this is our Psychology यानी जो सीट मेरी नहीं है , सिर्फ मैंने किताब रखी है, उसका मूल मालिक आ गया तो भी मुझे लगता है मेरी सीट ले ली है। हम उस मनोवैज्ञानिक aवस्था में काम करते हैं इसको हम इंकार नहीं कर सकते और ऐसे मनोस्थिति के अंदर अगर मोदी कहता है। जब आपको ईश्वर ने इतना दिया है ये गैस सिलंडर 400-500 की subsidy में क्या लगा है क्यों लेते हो। और मुझे खुशी है मैंने ज्यादा campaign नहीं किया। इस देश के 40 लाख से अधिक लोगों ने गैस सिलेंडर की subsidy छोड़ दी। जो देश बगल वाले की सीट छोड़ने को तैयार नहीं वो खुद की चालीस लाख लोग गैस सिलंडर छोड़ दें। मतलब देश का जन-मन विकास की दिशा में कितना बदला है। इसका ये उदहारण है। और इसलिए बदलाव कैसे आते हैं। ये बदलाव हमें ध्यान आते हैं। हमने भी तय किया कि जिन्होंने 40 लाख गैस subsidy छोड़ी है। ये पैसे मैं सरकार की तिजोरी में नहीं ले जाऊंगा। उन्होंने अगर इतनी उदारता बताई है तो सरकार का भी दायित्व बनता है कि उसको समाज की ताकत में convert करें। इसलिये हमने क्या किया चालीस लाख उन गरीब परिवारों को ढूंढा। इनकी गैस subsidy के बदले में गैस सिलेंडर उनको दिया। subsidy उनको ट्रांसफर की और जो घर में लकड़ी का चूल्हा जलाते थे, खुद का स्वास्थ खराब करते थे, बच्चे रोते रहते थे, पर्यावरण का नुकसान होता था उन चालीस लाख परिवारों को बाहर निकालने का काम किया इतना ही नहीं कोशिश यह है कि जिसने subsidy छोड़ी है उसको हम बताते हैं कि तुम्हारे वाली subsidy राजस्थान के उस गांव में पहुंची है। कैसे बदलाव आता है। ये सब संभव है।

रेलवे, किसी ने सोचा होगा क्या कि दुनिया के बाजार में रुपये की इतनी बड़ी ताकत हो माफ करना मुझे ये हो जाने के बाद भी अभी कइयों को समझ में नहीं आया कि कुछ काम हुआ है। पहली बार London Stock Exchange में रेलवे के लिए रुपये बॉन्ड को स्वीकृति मिलना, वरना गोल्ड चलता है, डॉलर चलता है, पॉउन्ड चलता है, रुपया दुनिया के बाजार में नहीं चलता है। पहली बार लंदन एक्सचैंज ने रुपये बॉन्ड को हमने मंजूरी दे दी रुपया बॉन्ड निकला। अब दुनिया का कोई भी व्यक्ति निवेश करेगा रुपये में करेगा और उसको वापस भी रुपया मिलेगा। ये रुपये की प्रतिष्ठा विश्व में बनना। अब धीरे-धीरे मैं एनटीपीसी को भी उसमें ले जाने वाला हूं। हो सकता है हम सिंगापुर जाएं, लंदन जाएं कहीं और जाएं लेकिन विश्व के बाजार में हमारी ये साख पैदा होना ये अपने आप में आर्थिक विकास के लिए एक साख, साख बहुत बड़ी बात होती है जी। साख बहुत बड़ी बात होती है।

हमारे देश में आपको हैरानी होगी जानकर के और कभी आप जाओगे तो देखना, रेल जाती है ऊपर ब्रिज बना है। एक तरफ यहां बना है एक तरफ यहां से बना है। बीच में खाली है। तो रेलवे वाले permission नहीं देते। अब बन चुका है वो तोड़ने वाला तो है नहीं। permission लेकिन दो-दो साल चार-चार साल हमने एक फॉर्मूला बनाया कि महीने में जिने लोग होंगे एक बार exchange करेंगे बातों को और फॉर्मूला के तहत clear कर देंगे। आज इस प्रकार का कोई project pending नहीं पड़ा है। जो दो-दो, तीन-तीन साल पड़ा रहता था। चीजों को गति कैसे दी जाती है।

हमारे देश में मेरी ये सोच है कि आज हमारे देश का विकास कितना ही क्यों न हो ...मान लीजिए साइकल में हम हवा भरते हैं। तो नापते हैं कि 40 डिग्री हवा गई कि 30 डिग्री गई। मीटर ठीक बताता है लेकिन मान लीजिए कि साइकल की ट्यूब में एक कोने में फुग्गा हो जाए गुबारा हो जाए और हवा वहां चली जाए तो मीटर तो ठीक बताएगा, लेकिन साइकल चलेगी क्या। मैं समझा पा रहा हूं। साइकल की पूरी ट्यूब में समान रूप से हवा पहुंचनी चाहिए तब साइकल चलेगी। अगर उसी ट्यूब में उतने ही point वाली हवा गुब्बारा हो जाए तो साइकल नहीं चल सकती। उसी प्रकार से देश की इकोनोमी भी अगर पश्चिम भारत में ही चलती रहे और पूर्वी भारत में विकास न हो तो ये देश कभी आगे नहीं बढ़ सकता है। ये बात हमें समझनी होगी पूर्वी उत्तर प्रदेश हो, बिहार हो, असाम हो, बंगाल हो, नॉर्थ ईस्ट हो, ओड़िशा हो, ये ऐसे potential क्षेत्र हैं हिन्दुस्तान के second green revolution की ताकत eastern India में पड़ी हुई है। हमारी पूरी योजना का केन्द्र बिन्दु वो होना चाहिए देश की economy को नई ताकत मिलेगी।

उसी प्रकार से अभी चार दिन पहले एक महत्वपूर्ण काम हुआ, अच्छा होता देश के मीडिया जगत का उस पर ध्यान गया होता। भारत में Railway Engine बनेंगे। कई वर्षों से फाइलें चल रही थीं। फैसला नहीं हो रहा था। Foreign Direct Investment, चालीस हजार करोड़ रुपया। दो railway engine बनाने के उद्योग के लिए already agreement हो गया। काम शुरू हो गया। पिछले हफ्ते की बात है और दोनों major policy है Eastern India को develop करना है। ये दोनों कारखाने बिहार में लगेंगे। और निर्णय अभी किया है मैंने चुनाव के पहले नहीं किया है। कहने का तात्पर्य आपने देखा होगा बजट को बारीकी से हमनें infrastructure में बहुत बड़ी राशि Eastern India में लगाई है। पहली बार हम Eastern India को gas grid से जोड़ रहे हैं।

Here is google translation:

Excellencies and all present at the summit appeared all seniors

The topic you have decided today is "Is India on a glorious path or not?"

I believe that these two days will brainstorm the pros and cons of various ideas will emerge, new suggestions come, situations will evaluate, assess the situation and some things that by all the country to emerge Working come.

I believe that in this two days of churning of opinions and counter-opinions several thoughts will come forth, newer suggestions will come forth, positions will be evaluated and the current situation will be reviewed and through all that some fruitful thoughts useful for the nation will come out.

I congratulate the Hindustan Times and Shobhana'ji that the event has been going on these last 12 years consecutively, in which people of all school of thoughts come together, meet and discuss. Given the world situation today., By and large it is accepted that in the big economies of the world, India is the fastest growing country. And when India is considered the fastest growing country on the other hand the world is going through a slowdown. Regarding China, there are lot of new things that has come to light. Euro region has stopped growing just below 1.5 percent GDP and in this world bank says that India's GDP is 7.5% and already the last three months the account has been 7.4. If we look at the numbers, we can believe that India is successfully on the way to a glorious future. This is not sudden and today's situation has to be understood in the context of the global paradigm as well.

Second, this needs to be seen in our own past. If we take 2 years, 5 years whatever we decide of the past and ignore that and then sit and judge then it is not a right outcome. But I understand that it is a very difficult task. For this we need an open mind, a courage to appreciate where we were, in what situation we were. And how difficult was it to come out of there. It was a hopeless situation in all four directions. Businesspersons sitting here were keeping their one leg outside and in the process of taking their other leg. And if we look at this form and observe it and then see it again, we will realize here, to understand this we do not need Modi., we will realize it ourselves that a major change has happened. And hence I hope that we keep this two important things, one the current global situation and second our recent past in view. And whatever be the outcome, one to have a stable government in itself is a big contribution. This somebody cannot deny. However good the party is, good the people are but without a factual mandate an environment of doubt is created. Whether we should do this or not, will we be able to do that or not? So the first change that has come which has taken us to towards the path of a glorious future and the if any credit first has to be given than for this celebrated step than it has to be given to the people of Hindustan. Credit goes to those 125 crore Hindustanis. This is a big step (work) taken by the people of the country.

{My take is this: Modi is trying to tell that do not ignore the past 2-5 years. Please see the progress in that context., because if we do not see it in that context then our evaluation is wrong. In my opinion, India was in stagflation (having called it out in 2010 itself). Going from a stagflation to a possibility of Goldilocks economy in a space of 2 years (note we are at the cusp of goldilocks., GST bill etc is the threshold we need to cross) is a miracle. Modi achieving that in 1.5 years of his coming to power is just breathtaking. (BTW, I expected this situation to be in 2017/2018! And here Modi credits Indians for this by giving a decisive mandate!}

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Second, in terms of our past are also necessary to see that tomorrow. If we had our last two years, five years, whatever, decide if we ignored him and then took the scales would not sit right thing. But I know that it is very difficult. Because it requires an open mind, a courage that we were where, what the circumstances were. Now how hard it was to get out. All around was despair. Udyogkar who are sitting here, a leg if he had already put out and were preparing to take second. If this is taken into consideration and then to be seen as the first, then they will know that brother so he does not need to understand, you understand that a lot has changed. And so I would hope that we do things these two major points, a global environment, a desire yesterday. And whatever the outcome of these came to be a stable government so that in itself is a huge contribution. It can reject. How good party, but if the factual mandate're good people, then there is an atmosphere of fear. Will not do, will not be able to. Then came the first changes, which take us towards a bright future if the first ones are no credit and no is the first successful step with a majority mandate he gave the people of India. Credit goes to the quarter billion Indians. This huge work has been done by the people.
When the government does not bring sudden change brings, has a long labor. Now we know that the world bank ease of doing business keeps the rating. Several years or so we are stable or declined. If the state did not go forward in our destiny. And we were so accustomed that get passed so. We had accepted the position of mind. 12 point ahead of the sudden jump in such a short time. They meet all the people of the world are saying that the mind Well, how did such a big jump. And ease of doing business when state governments, central governments together to improve the campaign's direction. If simplification. Minimum Government Maximum Governance embody. There are 20 forms give him 2. The process lasts three years, it took six months to come. One such thing, and for that I first called on the authorities of the States. The charter has a 100 point. The two-day workshop. requested.
But the most heartening thing to understand in this form, that is, 12 point bounce to be good, good direction. But the biggest thing is important, prior to the breakthrough of those states is shown. Never mind the country's economic sector towards which never goes away is not. Orissa, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, ease of doing business is increasing its in the rank profile. This means that the states of India into the mainstream to contribute to economic growth were never counted, they are today the lead role. This means that a new force in the States, new energy, new faith is born. Then proceed to India, Delhi is the country can not proceed. Strong states the country can stand on poles. And if we go by the psyche that is going to Delhi and the taker. Then the country will not proceed. State and Delhi together side by side of the head, a direction to go in, try to build speed bumps. The results will come out by itself.
The policy of the Commission which has been formed. His original efforts of the state and the center work together. The first is how to allocate the money to the Central and state by 42 percent to Rs 14 Finance commission to states said. This remains the case that the entire wealth of the country, about 65 percent of the treasure is in the pocket of the Treasury states, only 35 percent is near Delhi. They had never before. The first was the reverse. 35 percent to 65 percent of the states near Delhi. These changed. I then had to committee of chief ministers told them that this work is brother to look ahead and bring you sit. What had hitherto been that it was set in Delhi will not. The first time that the Chief Ministers of the states decided to meet, do so. And I am greetings to chief ministers of Delhi, he also laid the generosity and concern of its membership and to make such an inclusive system which we have implemented. States how we stay together. We want to export in our country, but states there is no agenda. And therefore quality production, quality packaging, quality branding what these states have no initiative, states the incentive, what is a scheme. What state is certain to export those. First we create the Export Promotion Council urged states. And states that you are the people who work for it in your state just Encourage them and meet them in their difficulties Awrh Understand how they can go global.
Similarly ours is a vast country. We say India, India says to the world that they do not understand what we're saying. More and more he is aware of Mumbai, Delhi, know know of Calcutta. IT revolution after Bangalore, Hyderabad is detected. India's strength is not known to the whole world. The states recognize that our world is very necessary. Our states have their own strengths. State law states the first time we have tried to add active. Different states have created special department in the State Department. And world leaders to visit the state increased, the states recognized the strength. India is a vast country so big, we just can not show the world from Delhi, India. If states show strength will change. This is the direction that brings changes direction.
Sometimes people think that we are economically. Suppose that the flaw, overall we have heard for many years that we've been thinking, we see things in the same realm. If the government says that we will have a year 20 thousand MW power plant. Will invest half lakh crore. Wow must be written in the economic world, the government is doing something. The big thing is amazing. The government is moving too fast. What he took the decision. Why 21 thousand MW electricity in a year, but little has worked Modi | India has 100 million MOU with LED Bulb, street light in LED Bulb change, change houses LED Bulb twenty cities has been completed so far. 83 cities are under development. This work will be completed on the day to 100 cities in LED 21500 MW power will save the day in this country. 21500 MW power plant if he does not then I can say in the Hindustan Times. But some in the newspaper is the Headline. He put the 21500 MW power plant. That is because we thought. 21500 MW power plant in the country means the investment of twenty trillion rupiah survived twenty million rupees. LED Bulb planting in 100 cities and towns hundred citizens will save Rs 45,000 every year. 45000 crore, you can imagine how that change comes.
Now I work as a small Pilot project. We said in Chandigarh just by using technology to free kerosene little look closely at Chandigarh. Vinod Sharma If you are here on they will hear something. I am saying kerosene free. Every year 30 million liters of kerosene in Chandigarh are. It is a subsidy of Rs three crore. Chandigarh is a city where people have gas cylinder is then kerosene. Means is wrong somewhere. I used the technology. I look stupid and you will be surprised to learn that 80 percent of households used kerosene was not. Yet the government was. And used the money. had to import, was spent. Goes elsewhere. Well we decided that is where the gas cylinder, kerosene is the need for electricity in the home he needed her there. Save 80 percent kerosene. But that came to mind when the investigation of which there were 3,200 poor families were also used kerosene. We decided that they convey the gas cylinder. Kerosene will be free and Chandigarh. Chandigarh kerosene meant to free a large amount of government subsidy in the safe was stolen closed. Environment who were losing closed. 30 million liters of kerosene diesel, which was in the mix, the total pollution that was causing the problem stopped. 30 million liters of kerosene, which we used to import from abroad, the country's Foreign Exchange had he stayed. were brought to refine crude oil.
In the context of the country, I just let these things that is what direction. This shows that you see the gas cylinder, the gas cylinder to us, we combined with Direct Benefit Transfer banks started direct subsidy. The gas cylinders were first and the direct benefit was in direct bank Account, then the gas cylinder in the number of millions who do not have any left. That means tens of millions of millions escaped gas cylinder gas cylinder survived the subsidy. The targeted subsidy. Today, if he decides that it will cut such a subsidy. If you consider yourself reformist, they would applaud that man subsidy week Modi Modi is removed. In the man's own. But stop leakages of Targeted Subsidy save the country's wealth, which he does not reform. And therefore think that we will settle down on those who did the work. She does not work, we wanted results, they can also come from the way that results. The good of the country and welfare state as it goes our way. And how we make things.
What is the nature of us in our country. Suppose we are in the plane, because sitting here with all aircraft. Some read books and put the empty seat next to some thing. So we're sitting on our seat. The seat is not next to us. But we kept some things, some small bags, pouches, and put the book. The last human case before the aircraft came running and his seat where he was sitting. So do you think we took my seat. ie this is our Psychology is not my seat, just as I have kept the book, even if it was the original owner I took my seat. We have a psychological mechanism that work in it and we can not rule within the frame of mind if he calls. God has given you so much of what is on the gas in the cylinder 400-500 Why take the subsidy. And I'm glad I did not campaign much. The country's 40 million people left the gas cylinder subsidy. She refused to leave the seat next to the country's four million people own leave gas cylinder. How in the direction of the country's population growth means the mind has changed. Here is the example. And how come the changes. These changes are noticeable to us. We have also decided that 40 million gas subsidy is made. I will not take the money in government coffers. He said that if such generosity that it is responsibility of the government in the strength of society to convert. So what we have found four million poor families. The gas subsidy given them in exchange for the gas cylinder. subsidy and transfer them in the house were burning wood stove, used to own ill health, children were crying, the environment is the loss of four million families who had worked out that the subsidy is not only trying We show you a subsidy that has left him in the village of Rajasthan is reached. How changes. All this is possible.
Railways, what anyone would have thought that such a big power in the world market to be worth it when you're still sorry I did not understand that something has happened to many. London Stock Exchange for the first time in railway bonds bucks to have been accepted, or gold moves, walks dollar, Pound suggests, the money in the world market does not. We first London Exchange approved the bonds worth Rs bonds turned. Now no one will invest in world currency and it will get back the money. The reputation of the world to be Rs.

Will do the word smith on the above later in the day.

Kakkaji · Post by **Kakkaji** » 05 Dec 2015 09:31

Four-tier GST proposal

Table in the article summarizes the proposal.

mohanty · Post by **mohanty** » 05 Dec 2015 09:39

[quote="Jhujar"]
World’s richest, Tirupati Temple may move stash to Modi’s gold scheme

[quote]

I don't think goddess Laxmi really likes Raghuram Rajan stamped paper that says, "I will pay the bearer nothing because he is dumb".

That means Mr. Modi's war on gold is draining his precious heavenly capital/blessings.

The giant Ponzi scheme Modi is promoting called "gold deposit" will come to bite those participating in their rear and then they will realize the consequences of trusting a politician. But it will be too late then.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 05 Dec 2015 09:44

So GST will be at 17-18%? So what was all the talk about it being 24% all these days and 18% being too low. But now they are saying 17-18% is the revenue neutral rate. I think 18% is one of the sops for congress to claim credit to allow passage of the bill.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 05 Dec 2015 09:45

vina wrote:
I am not surprised. I was wondering the implications when on Aug 15, 2015 - Modi talked of neem coated urea for agriculture (and this is the only urea which is subsidized)., the diversion of urea to industries stopped.

Basically, a whole lot of Urea was siphoned off from agriculture into industrial feed stock creating an imbalance - an artificial shortage in agriculture and lack of robust uptake from manufacturers of urea for the industry.

Imagine the amount of public money that was being siphoned off! Just clearing up this muck led to overall surplus and hence India went from a chronic importer of Urea to a net exporter of urea!
Missing the wood for the trees. While this diversion business is real and neem coating cuts it, I am not sure what percentage of urea production in India is neem coated in the first place.

The trick is the huge subsidy burden that was carried when gas prices were high and naphtha prices were high, resulted in automatic shut down of many plants and increase in import cost, and the subsidy of domestic urea encouraged diversion.

With prices falling like a rock of inputs, that has pressure has gone, more Naptha based plants have reopened , diversion down (imported urea costs must have plummeted) , and of course probably neem coating of domestic urea.

Thank oil & gas price correction more than Modi , who does deserve a huge thanks though.

It's mandatory for companies to neem coat 75% of their domestic production.

Yagnasri · Post by **Yagnasri** » 05 Dec 2015 09:48

http://www.firstpost.com/business/leake ... 33764.html

FP post so can be not believed. Still some of the concepts need discussion.