Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby nash » 14 Sep 2015 22:22

Viv S wrote:
Suraj wrote:
Among the major states, West Bengal occupied 11th slot, Tamil Nadu (12th), Haryana (14th), Delhi (15th), Punjab (16th), Himachal Pradesh (17th), Kerala (18th), Goa (19th), Bihar (21st) and Assam (22nd).


Kind of goes against conventional wisdom, doesn't it? What am I missing here?


this might be probably the reason, whole video worth a watch:

http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/econom ... 72261.html

Q: Why perhaps no one is surprised about the fact that Gujarat has actually topped the rankings and come in at number one. The surprise is really where Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh coming in at number three and number four, states like Maharashtra and Karnataka one would have imagined that they would have been higher up. Are you surprised by where Maharashtra and Rajasthan will have come up?
A: No, I am not surprised at all because we were assessing everything against the 98 parameters laid down, it was like passing an examination. You need a huge political and administrative will to pass those 98 points. Now these states were able to crack that. Maharashtra has not been able to put several things on line. They have just not been able to put several things on line. It is a large state and they will be able to do this later. Similar with Karnataka. Tamil Nadu was able to do several things in July but it was a little too late.

Q: West Bengal coming in at number 11, does that surprise you? Is it a story that hasn't been given enough weight in terms of the measures that the government there has undertaken?
A: West Bengal did a lot of hard work and if they hadn't done that hard work they would have been ranked very badly but they just pulled themselves up and they cracked a number of things which made them jump up to come to the 11th position, otherwise they would have done pretty badly. So, West Bengal has done pretty well according to me.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby deejay » 14 Sep 2015 22:27

^^^There are only 07 states above 50% score and six of them have BJP run governments as per a tweet I saw today. It is the criteria for judging by World Bank that is important. The news clearly states that GOI asked the World Bank to prepare this report on the listed criteria.

The ranking of the states, prepared by the World Bank at the behest of the government, was based on eight specified parameters which include setting up of business, allotment of land, labour reforms and procedure for environmental clearance.

The parameters also include infrastructure, procedure for registration for tax purposes and inspections for compliance of various norms.


While the best state and individual state position is being discussed, the following statement by World Bank country director catches the eye:
"A disproportionately high regulatory burden is borne by businesses in India today."


So where is India in terms of ease of doing business:

Because of regulatory burden, India has been ranked at the 142nd position, among 182 nations ranked in the World Bank's Doing Business study, he added.

Various initiatives taken by India in recent times, Ruhl said, would help the government in focusing on "implementation of reforms relating to start a business, resolving insolvency, enforcing contracts, and trading across borders.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby nash » 14 Sep 2015 22:44

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... n=ETFBMain

Link has the list

here is the whole ranking list, only concern about data point is that they cover only Mumbai and Delhi:

http://www.doingbusiness.org/data/explo ... mies/india

http://www.doingbusiness.org/rankings

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Theo_Fidel » 14 Sep 2015 22:54

Viv S wrote:Kind of goes against conventional wisdom, doesn't it? What am I missing here?


What you are missing is people have no idea what happens on the ground in these states. On paper all things can be hunky dory.... ..but this does not track where people actually live....

By these rankings these countries are higher than India
Yemen, land of civil war
Pakistan, Land of god knows
Iran, Land of Sanctions

I would advise people to ignore these garbage items and focus on getting things to work. We all know which parts of India work and which do not. Heck we have voted with our feet and live in these more functional areas..... ..without skilled productive people businesses have nothing to sell and no one to sell it too... ...It doesn't matter how easy it is to start a business in Gwalior unless more skilled and productive people, meaning wealthy live there...

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 14 Sep 2015 23:12

Wholesale inflation continues to remain in negative territory:
WPI inflation contracts further to -4.95% in Aug

Two crucial inflation data points released on Monday presented a mixed picture, placing the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in a difficult position on the policy rate front.

While the Wholesale Price Index-based inflation continued to positively surprise with the August print contracting further to (-) 4.95 per cent, retail inflation, based on the Consumer Price Index, came in a tad higher than market expectations at 3.66 per cent.

Reacting to the two sets of inflation numbers, Finance Minister Arun Jaitley told newspersons that overall inflation continues to moderate and seems to be under control. He, however, admitted that some products saw an increase in prices mainly due to seasonal variations and the monsoon.

Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Subramanian said that the core momentum had decelerated over the last three months and this was an encouraging sign.

All eyes are now on the RBI, whose next monetary policy review is scheduled on September 29, to see how it will react to the latest inflation numbers and the US Fed’s move on interest rates later this week.

RBI appears to be waiting on the US Fed action (or the lack of one) this week. The futures market only ascribes a 30% probability to a US Fed rate hike in this week's meeting, rising to 40% in next month's meeting.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby shaun » 14 Sep 2015 23:28

Who filled up those questionnaires ?? How they gather data , from case studies or field investigation or official data from individual states.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Vayutuvan » 14 Sep 2015 23:55

Yagnasri wrote: Preferably a digital one which can be used by debit card like instrument.

If you are talking about bitcoin, dragons be there lurking somewhere. If the internet gets "fork"ed, there could be duplicate bitcoins, i.e. several people can be holding the same bit-coin in different "fork"s of the internet. There is something called alt-coin. I will give a latest reference (reasonably technical but written for managers - so no proofs and such) in a few hours. I think anybody who is working in banking, finance, or corporate/financial law needs to understand this technology.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Vayutuvan » 15 Sep 2015 00:01

Folks, help me out here. Is there a link not to the video but some kind text (HTML/PDF/ASCII) source for the list and summary (if there is one)? TIA

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby KrishnaK » 15 Sep 2015 01:19


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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby A_Gupta » 15 Sep 2015 03:35

^^^, thank you, KrishnaK!

So they got the tax deflator wrong, and so underestimated the GDP? :)

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 15 Sep 2015 03:40

KrishnaK wrote:Economic Research Note - India GDP: Gross Deflator Problem?
Has this been posted before ?

This JP Morgan analysis is quite interesting:
Bottom line: growth accelerated in 2Q
All told, we believe the 1Q15 deflator likely has been grossly underestimated and that of 2Q15 overestimated. The result: 1Q growth gets an artificial boost,
and 2Q growth is artificially depressed. We are therefore left with the deceptive image that growth is slowing. Instead, if the deflators are properly calibrated, we believe GDP growth should have been just shy of 7% in 1Q and a tad above 8% oya in 2Q. This is consistent with the dynamics of GVA, which are untainted by this problem. GVA sequential momentum surged from less than 4% in 1Q to over 16% in 2Q. Net of agriculture and government spending, it accelerated from 12.2% q/q, saar to 15.4%

Thus, the headline GDP growth lift in 1Q and slowdown in 2Q appear to be on account of a statistical aberration. Given the problems with the NIT deflator and growth rates, we believe the dynamics of gross value added(GVA) on the supply side are a much more accurate indication of economic activity. And they reveal an economy that accelerated in 2Q, which seems consistent with the large and positive terms of trade shock that India has experienced.

The report thus asserts that rather than the economy slowing down in Q1 2015-16 (Apr-Jun 2015) on the basis of of a comparison of the yoy GDP growth of 7% in that quarter compared to Q4 2014-15 (Jan-Mar 2015), it actually accelerated in Q1 2015-16. The report further estimates that Q4 GDP growth was not 7.5% but just under 7%, and that Q1 growth is not 7% but just over 8% , i.e. quarter to quarter sequential growth was not -0.5% but over +1.0% instead.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Singha » 15 Sep 2015 19:42

we need jobs at any cost even if its stitching shoes and making plastic gumlas.
today I was driving along the ring road and hordes of young students from god knows where were spilling out onto the street from a college.....many from economically failed corners of the empire no doubt...clouds of dust...a few more miles along the roads 100s of semi-violent uneducated young men roaming around on the fringes of the organized economy making eyes at any women passing in cars.....the best they can hope is construction labour kind of jobs even security guard needs 12th pass.

youth demographic is a route to superpawa status if harnessed else it will be the death of us and take into the abyss if unemployement soars to say west european levels without their social safety net and law and order systems.

time is running out and pressure increasing to breaking point on the areas which create jobs in india.

Balrog is watching..and waiting

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby member_29172 » 15 Sep 2015 20:36

^^ I am pretty sure none of that happened Singhaji, but it provides for good visuals I am sure. Paranoia aside, one interesting trend I've observed among 20-something kids here in Pune/Mumbai area is how they begin working in their second year of college. Some girls that I grew up with are working for an advertising company, IT, fashion design industries. Guys are mostly working in computer engineering/graphics/IT industries. Lots of new companies are popping which maynot be popular, definitely provide a challenge to these nanha jihadis. One of my friend's younger brother is studying in University of Pune and has a small app website for himself, mostly relating to password and network security. It was quite a success on google play, mostly getting a 4 star review. He's working for Schlumberger since grade 11. about 5 years now.

Lots of young entrepreneurs are coming up in Pune/Mumbai belt atleast, a similar situation exists in Gurgaon. It seems most of them are interested in expanding in their respective cities instead of going nationwide. Also, given that most of these are started by students, it'd make sense that they can't leave their studies while they are promoting themselves around the country.
It seems a slow and steady entrepreneurial boom is happening in major cities, I hope the powers that be can learn how to tap and promote the talents of these youngsters.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby member_29172 » 15 Sep 2015 20:43

Folks here should check out the Niti Aayog website to get an idea of what's happening on ground, lots of thorough information. Better than empty spectulations and curses I suppose.

http://niti.gov.in/mgov_file/presentati ... slides.pdf

Slide on infrastructure work done so far in the 2014-15 term and the plans ahead. Released in May 2015. Will also post in the Modi achievement thread for quick summary

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 15 Sep 2015 23:59

That is an excellent report from Niti Aayog. A great summary of where things stand, together with what to expect in the next two fiscals. I wish they'd also present information on employment growth, in future reports.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby member_29172 » 16 Sep 2015 00:13

It must be there somewhere, NITI aayog website is a goldmine for all kind of data, let me see if I find something useful. Have similar slides regarding education and a few other parameters. Will post them soon.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Falijee » 16 Sep 2015 04:37

Gold Rush Fever In India

Ministers want to increase domestic supply in country that imports 1,000 tonnes of gold a year, and hope to mine £2.5bn worth near city of Kolar

They are calling it the great Indian gold rush. Within months, Indian officials are expected to auction licences for new gold mines across the country, and abandoned colonial-era mines are set to be revived.


India is the world’s largest consumer of the precious metal, importing more than 1,000 tonnes a year. In August alone, 120 tonnes were brought in, and demand is expected to rise still further in the runup to Diwali and weddings season. Local production of gold totals less than two tonnes.


Kolar was first mined by British companies at the end of the 19th century, said Bridget White-Kumar, a local author and historian. In 1850 a retired Irish soldier who had fought in the army of the East India Company during its campaigns to seize the princedom of Mysore investigated reports of mines in the region. Over the decades that followed, the project and a thriving community grew. But most of the gold was sent back to London, White-Kumar said.


Huge quantities of gold – about 3,000 tonnes, more than two-thirds of the gold held in the US bullion depository at Fort Knox – is stored in temples, donated by pious Hindu worshippers. Narendra Modi, the Indian prime minister, has already tried to exploit the resource with a scheme that encouraged places of worship to deposit their gold with banks in return for interest payments.

The government planned to melt the gold and loan it to jewellers to meet the appetite for gold and reduce imports.


White-Kumar said the latest project to exploit the mines was “good news for the country and the community”. She said: “We are literally sitting on a gold mine.”

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Suraj » 16 Sep 2015 04:56

Trade data remains in a freefall with the weakening global economy:
Exports decline 21% to $21 billion in August
Merchandise exports plunged 20.7 per cent to $21.3 billion in August from $26.8 billion in the year-ago period, the ninth consecutive monthly decline and the steepest in the first five months of this financial year. The fall resulted from a massive demand slowdown in global markets and an uncertain global economic environment, owing to a crisis in China.

For April-August, exports from India stood at $111.1 billion, down 16.2 per cent compared with $132.5 billion in the year-ago period, according to data released by the commerce and industry ministry on Tuesday.

In August, imports shrunk 9.9 per cent to $33.7 billion from $37.5 billion a year earlier. For April-August, imports fell 11.6 per cent to $168.6 billion from $190.7 billion in the year-ago period. Gold imports, however, jumped 140 per cent to $4.95 billion.

Aditi Nayar, senior economist, ICRA, said the surge in gold imports was mainly due to a decline in prices of the commodity. Others attributed it to the coming festival season.

Oil imports declined 42.6 per cent year-on-year to $7.35 billion, compared with $12.8 billion in August last year. For April-August, these imports stood at $41.5 billion, down 38.8 per cent year-on-year.

Though it might appear that industrial activity saw a turnaround, as non-oil imports rose 7.01 per cent to $26.4 billion in August, a closer look shows much of the growth is coming from gold imports.

Non-oil, non-gold imports contracted 4.4 per cent, showing demand for industrial goods was yet to pick up, evident from the fact that the import of project goods almost halved to $206.7 billion in August.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Singha » 16 Sep 2015 07:00

Alka_P wrote:^^ I am pretty sure none of that happened Singhaji, but it provides for good visuals I am sure. Paranoia aside, one interesting trend I've observed among 20-something kids here in Pune/Mumbai area is how they begin working in their second year of college. Some girls that I grew up with are working for an advertising company, IT, fashion design industries. Guys are mostly working in computer engineering/graphics/IT industries. Lots of new companies are popping which maynot be popular, definitely provide a challenge to these nanha jihadis. One of my friend's younger brother is studying in University of Pune and has a small app website for himself, mostly relating to password and network security. It was quite a success on google play, mostly getting a 4 star review. He's working for Schlumberger since grade 11. about 5 years now.

Lots of young entrepreneurs are coming up in Pune/Mumbai belt atleast, a similar situation exists in Gurgaon. It seems most of them are interested in expanding in their respective cities instead of going nationwide. Also, given that most of these are started by students, it'd make sense that they can't leave their studies while they are promoting themselves around the country.
It seems a slow and steady entrepreneurial boom is happening in major cities, I hope the powers that be can learn how to tap and promote the talents of these youngsters.


I totally agree with you except the first sentence. I did take a long drive yesterday to fill up petrol. normally you drive down some techie street like santa clara gateway or tasman drive in bay area and there's hardly any people on the street in the day. you drive down ORR or near ITPL here and its still crawling with all sorts of people - shop workers, bands of construction workers going to and from work, huge numbers of shift duty security guards walking or cycling to duty, vagrants, thieves, part time maids moving around, lots of stray dogs, a few cows ...you let your mind drift for a moment..time slows down...images of long dead loved ones... and imagine this scene countrywide. just look at the construction workers -- they were clearly malnourished as kids and never reached their physical growth potential, let alone educational...the men and women are about a **1 foot** shorter than well fed urban people...its not uncommon to see bands of young men who are under 5-feet tall and women again frail and much lesser still.

clearly there is a giant underfed and weak underclass of around 300 million with no prospects or agricultural future in whatever dark territory of a failed state they are born in and are on the march, looking to survive , with even the harsh tin roof shanties of the construction labour camps preferable to starving at home. assam is slightly better off in terms of food due to favourable soil and climate, but HS/BA/even BSC people who can clearly work in manufacturing are working in droves here as security guards - quite a few in my apartment alone. they know some basic english but lack any other employable skill given the state of our rural colleges in most parts and lack of mega-jobs in manufacturing. some have moved to cooks, delivery boys, waiters, shop assistants.....they have no entry into autos and taxis since the local unions and clans wont let them in.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby member_29172 » 16 Sep 2015 07:45

^^ Agree with everything you said Singhaji, the first line was a joke (seriously, no attempt at saving face here :mrgreen: ).

Have seen plenty of tutors, shopkeepers, small time technicians, watchmen, milkmen and women etc. having BSc./B.Com degrees and being forced to do these jobs. While those who are uneducated, can pretty much forget about social mobility. That's why manufacturing at every little level matters. I can't say much about some people resenting here and on other forums/websites/ analyst websites about Indian economic system's stupidity in going for services first and then looking for manufacturing. I think in the tight red tape and berucratic environment of early 90s, opening up shops and running them like a clockwork with adequate infra and energy and water supply would've been impossible. And unlike imperial europe and communist china, our govt. wouldn't have been able to direct resources, deemed important for the people to these factories.

It'd be a political suicide. But I think people who get their degrees from villages and small towns do make it big. My own grandfather and his three brothers are a testament to that. He received his chemical engineering degree from Belgaum in the early 1950s, then moved to Mumbai and worked as an engineer at the Calico mills till late 80s. His brothers were managers and chemical engineers as well. Point is, mills and manufacturing plants are what will give these people the job they deserve. The political drama in Mumbai during the 80s, caused the mills to shut down, my grandfather was retired by then so luckily he had a pension.

I agree with you, and it seems things are improving, depending on which state you are talking about ofcourse :)

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Singha » 16 Sep 2015 10:15

my grandfather got a diploma in civil engg and 'overseering' from dhaka univ, which apparently with chittagong are old and respected places dating way back. two of my maternal uncles got mtech from roorkee and BHU which again predate the iits I think. all of them came from well-fed but rural community and village schools. so people do claw their way up. one thing all of them got is dedicated teachers even at village school level and sometimes talented kids of that era were sponsored for higher studies in the city by rich villagers as a social tradition. elder less educated siblings also slogged to give better opportunity to their younger ones

but we have clueless but widely read people like chidanand rajghatta(TOI) still waxing eloquent on why india should make manhole covers for the world, let china do it, let us use our so called global pool of managerial cadres to abolish poverty and become a continent sized singapore :rotfl: a decade ago pritish nandy was saying the same thing, why should india make cement, let someone else make it.

http://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.co ... facturing/

Of course, the prime minister’s emphasis on ‘Made in India’ suggests he wants to chip away at China’s near monopoly as the world’s factory. But India needs to be picky about what it will manufacture. Why should India make industrial grade, environmentally detrimental manhole covers for the world, a job China is all too ready to give up even as it aspires to India’s advantages as an Anglophone country with managerial bench strength? Not to speak of automation destroying manufacturing jobs by the thousands.

http://www.rediff.com/business/1998/may/18nandy.htm

hat is why the most powerful profit opportunities of the future lie not in oil refineries nor in steel factories nor in cement plants. They lie in media and entertainment and information technology. In movies, TV channels, music, magazines, art, theatre, fashion, newspapers, restauranting, advertising and brand building. Content, in other words. Software.

Factories, gold, silver, flats, offices, diamonds, plants and machines are anachronisms in our age and time. But, because of vested interests, they have perpetuated their stranglehold over our economy. That is why we remain a nation of shopkeepers and traders, where the bania still rules over his decrepit, decaying empire while creativity is taboo and genius seen as too risky to fund.

---
with eggsperts like these who needs enemies :rotfl:

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby member_29172 » 16 Sep 2015 10:42

:rotfl: Your first mistake was taking these buffons seriously saar. These cartoons learn a few words of english and they think they are most sophisticated, cultured and "educated" Indians whose job it is to teach us unwashed Hindi/Tamil/Malyalee speaking gawars about how we should be modern, cultured, high nosed english speaking ******** like them. They are like the 100% literacy state in that regards they're supposedly smart and developed, but they have little to show for it.

I might sound classist (another invention of the jhollawallas) but these are just liberal arts students who lack the critical reasoning/thinking skills that's needed to analyze the world both at micro and macro levels. All they can do is write long and impressive essays about emotionally charged bs that have little to no content in them.

They read like a good story and might convince an unsuspecting reader into agreeing with them, but their ability to put 2 and 2 together is quite undeveloped. It's not hard to find sports writers writing about politics and Hindutva, some third rate actor speaking about India or Indian culture, the good old Bharat vs. India argument, where ofcourse the Bharat part is supposed to be a backward shithole while the Indian part is modern shorden and yinglish speaking. Wonderful no? :)

These morons live in a lala land of their own. I used to read TOI every day after coming back from school and you'd find such condescending articles about Bharat or us villagers everyday. It just seems so weird, an almost entirely separate species of Indians who roleplay as britshits or americans with their try hard accents and cheap attempts at looking cool and modern. It's laughable and quite sad at the same time. I wonder how can someone have so little self respect and dignity that he/she would rather act like a foreigner than an Indian, that too on an Indian news channel/paper network. Sadly these cartoons are lapped up by the english media quite readily, because they're perfectly suitable candidates. Brainwashed, yinglish speaking, bootlicking story writers who'll do the bidding for the highest bidder while feeling smug about how smart they are compared to us villagers. Either way, you can write an entire book about these wannabes.

Coming back to the topic, these unemployed people need to make manholes, pens, pencils, electronic circuit boards, shoes, chappals, your, my and some american's banyaan and underwear :mrgreen:. Anything and everything that the country can produce. Just imagine the massive amount of money that'd be saved. There are still lots of basic stuff that Indian companies have to import, it's quite despicable. Also, we need the mass manufacturing capabilities because that's how you learn how to create something, how to design something, how to imagine something, put it on a drawing board and eventually manufacture, test and market it to millions of your countrymen. Manufacturing is the mother of innovation and entrepreneurship. Without it, we might become developed but we won't be self reliant. And I believe being the latter is necessary before we can become the former.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Singha » 16 Sep 2015 16:28

powergrid corp has inaugurated a 1800km long HDVC 800 kv line between agra to biswanath chariali in assam on 15-sept.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Singha » 16 Sep 2015 18:05

Toi.

Height of joblessness: 23 lakh applications for 368 peon jobs in UP
Shailvee Sharda,TNN | Sep 16, 2015

LUCKNOW: What could be the height of unemployment? The answer to this lies in UP where more than 23 lakh persons have applied against 368 posts of peon in the state secretariat. The number is almost half the population of Lucknow, which is 45 lakhs.

What is even more shocking is that over two lakh applicants are at least graduate with BTech, BSc, MSc and MCom degrees. Applications also include 255 candidates with a PhD degree in hand. :shock:

The figures come from department of Sachivalaya Administration which would be conducting the appointment. Prabhat Mittal, secretary, informed that candidates had to apply online against the advertised posts. "We were shocked to see the response," Mittal said.

The recruitment was to be done through direct interview which may take a couple of years.

Candidates have their reason for applying. "It's better to work as a peon than to roam without a job," said Alok, an applicant who holds a PhD degree. Graduate Ratan Yadav added, "there is nothing wrong in taking up menial work."

Rekha Verma, another applicant, said that it was better to serve water to officers than to lead a life of dependency. "If you are jobless, you eventually seek help from relatives and friend... but for how long can one survive on the kindness of well-wishers," she said.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Singha » 16 Sep 2015 18:06

Just a glimpse of what the congis have nicely created all these years

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Theo_Fidel » 16 Sep 2015 19:41

Not to worry, a few pages back UP ranked at 10, higher than TN & KL in ease of business rankings, all ees well.... :roll:

UP/Bihar have still not slowed their population growth, still having 3-4 kids each without investing in the infrastructure for the next generation. Same could be said for that band of states stretching from central to North to East India. In the past 10 years of travel through TN I don't know a single young couple with 4 kids, same is true of KL. 1-2 max. Yet quite common in UP and the population of the frikking state of UP is set to double again in 25 years. This is starting to approach 1/3 of India. UP will have 1/3 of Indias population. There is no way they can save enough money to invest in the infrastructure for a population doubling, least of all in 25 years. If there is something as a nation we should tackle on a war footing, it is this one problem, along with litracy for women.... ..the heartland is struggling and folks are twiddling their thumbs...

http://articles.economictimes.indiatime ... h-assembly
The population of Uttar Pradesh will reach 45 crore in the next 20 to 25 years, the Uttar Pradesh Assembly was informed today.

While replying to a question by Suresh Kumar Khanna of BJP on population control policy of the state government, Minister of State for Health and Family Welfare Shankh Lal Majhi said that the state policy was launched in 2000 on the lines of the national policy.

"As per the state policy, the birth rate by 2016 has to be brought down to 2.1 which stood at 3.4 (per couple) in 2011," the minister said, adding that in 2012 it came down to 3.3 and in 2013 to 3.2 (per couple).

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby gakakkad » 16 Sep 2015 19:45

PhDs wanting a peons job reflects poorly.. it is said that in US, 5000 janitors have a PhD...

Supratik
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Supratik » 16 Sep 2015 19:51

While the TFR is still high except BH the pop growth rates have come down considerably close to that of Muslims in SI and approaching that of Hindus minus KL. For example, the growth rate of Hindus in UP is close to that of Muslims in TN. However, due to population momentum it is still going to grow for sometime. Coerced population control has only led to only non-Muslims limiting their family leading to demographic imbalance and female foeticide. In fact the official reason given for discontinuing govt involvement in family planning was female foeticide. Let people decide what kind of future they want for their children.

Theo_Fidel

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Theo_Fidel » 16 Sep 2015 19:55

Singha wrote:What is even more shocking is that over two lakh applicants are at least graduate with BTech, BSc, MSc and MCom degrees. Applications also include 255 candidates with a PhD degree in hand. :shock:


Not one of these fellows can be employed in a factory. What we need are engineers. Engineers that we can throw at every problem, from installing a glass wind shield on a Hyundai meant for export to operating the Rs 10 crore road laying machine. This is our competitive advantage. While the rest of the world uses HS grads to law roads, India can use engineers and the quality that will come from them.... ..at least the usable half...

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Singha » 16 Sep 2015 19:58

our part time cook , from bihar, has 4 kids and is slogging in 10 houses and a share in a new samosa-tea restaurant to feed them. why he produced 4 is a mystery. he is not literate but otherwise sensible and well-aware of the world. he has also landed himself into a debt trap for starting his small restaurant.

Theo_Fidel

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Theo_Fidel » 16 Sep 2015 19:59

Supratik wrote:While the TFR is still high except BH the pop growth rates have come down considerably close to that of Muslims in SI and approaching that of Hindus minus KL.


Yes, the story is complex and trend lines are slowly down but no one can say that a TFR of 3.1 is anything but disastrous out of control population growth right now. As the ministers says @ TFR 3.1 the state doubles every 25 years. This something that should alarm our mantris but mostly crikets...

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Singha wrote:why he produced 4 is a mystery.


That is a million dollar question isn't it. Most probably because his wife has zero control over her fertility. Look at the female literacy rate on the right side of the graph. But it can be changed if our Neta's highlight the problem and attack it. Without getting TFR below 2.5 any state in India can not be fixed....

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Supratik » 16 Sep 2015 20:18

It is a function of governance. The BIMARU states are the only hold-outs. They were also the most poorly governed states. But with SSC and VR Raj and MP has come out of it. They have shown sharp drop in pop growth. It is not impossible to control TFR if you really want it. Bdesh has gone from close to 3 to 2.1 in one decade just by making it easier to control birth. If you visit UP, BH it is mostly in shambles even by Indian stds. However, if they make correct governance choices it is not difficult to work a turn around.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Singha » 16 Sep 2015 20:30

our ex-maid who is from north karnataka again has the same issue - no control over her fertility. husband desperately wanted a boy and kept firing into her...out came 4 girls one after another. thankfully he has retired (one hopes) and she is relatively ok now.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Supratik » 16 Sep 2015 20:33

That is still better than killing 4 girls to get one boy. That is what was happening in place like PJ, HY, CH. So coercion was stopped. Unofficially it had no effect on the Muslim community as you can estimate from the growth rates till 2001.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby member_22733 » 16 Sep 2015 20:49

Theo_Fidel wrote:
Singha wrote:What is even more shocking is that over two lakh applicants are at least graduate with BTech, BSc, MSc and MCom degrees. Applications also include 255 candidates with a PhD degree in hand. :shock:


Not one of these fellows can be employed in a factory. What we need are engineers. Engineers that we can throw at every problem, from installing a glass wind shield on a Hyundai meant for export to operating the Rs 10 crore road laying machine. This is our competitive advantage. While the rest of the world uses HS grads to law roads, India can use engineers and the quality that will come from them.... ..at least the usable half...


While you have the right to your sarcasm, I find the situation rather sad.

Think of it this way: When one of your limbs is paralyzed for most of your life, you are going to try and develop other parts of the body. If long enough time has passed, you will forget how to use the paralyzed limb, even if it becomes responsive. You will still limp on making half hearted advances towards whatever goal you have set yourself up for.

To make it more obvious: The paralyzed limb is obviously the capability to think for ourselves. This resulted in lack of educational policies that helped people to think for themselves. We still emphasized rote learning.

Add on top of all of that another paralysis: One of the Brishit/Nehruvian kind, Industrial paralysis. The stifling of small scale/medium scale industries through whatever imported political ideology that was the flavor of the day.

The "other parts of the body" was the solution to "make it" in this bountiful country shackled with artificial Nehruvian scarcity, and your options were:

1) Govt job.
2) Doctor
3) Engineer

The reason for those goals was obvious, it was the only way the middle class/poor folks were going to make it. It was the only way we were not shackled by laws that enforced artificial scarcity. But we were still shackled with the paralysis of independent thought and rote learning was the only way to make it in those professions.

I can only empathize and be sad about the situation. I find sarcasm distasteful.

Melwyn

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Melwyn » 16 Sep 2015 21:01

Singha wrote:Toi.

Height of joblessness: 23 lakh applications for 368 peon jobs in UP
...


Like many in India, these people got degrees because they had nothing else to do. Gathering degrees is a way to hide unemployment in India. I doubt if these guys are in any way better than a 5th failed.

Do not underestimate the power of a peon in a corrupt place like UP. In a matter of years these peons will be crorepatis grabbing money from people for moving files from department to department. The vicious cycle continues unabated.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby member_22733 » 16 Sep 2015 21:20

Let me set aside my objectivity for a moment, not that I have too much of it with me. Pliss to bear with me.

As someone who grew up in a tiny middle-of-nowhere-farming village (albeit in a slightly ok to do family there), every one of us unwashed in those places were advised by our elders to seek out and "do something" and not be like that kishan mamu who sits and smokes ganja all day under the village banyan tree.

Doing something was going to school, which at that point was a govt school. Other than helping others at odd jobs here and there, life was pretty much barren. The only "role models" we had were not bizness men, they were:

1) the local IAS babu who used to bless the "big shots" in the village with an occassional vijjit with his missus.
2) Local dada who somehow had enough political connections to land a small job in the local taluk office. He later on became a big real estate guy in a nearby city.
3) Distant (3rd, 4th, 5th removed) cousin who landed in the eye-eye-tee and was supposedly making gazzillion dollahs a month even before graduation.
4) A daak-tar who used to drive around in a Maruti car (cutting edge at that time), when the rest of us only ever saw two ambys pass by the village every year.

These were my role models, when I was a kid. If learning was what it took to get there, so be it. i.e. Learning something, anything, was a means to an end.

Given how scarce the resources were in that tiny village (now a small town), a degree was what economists call; a "signal". It did not matter how you got it, or whether you used rote learning or real learning. What mattered was that you had a degree. Very similar to money, no one really gives a damn if you have money. How you made it is really not a question usually asked, especially if you have lots of it.

I would not blame these people for applying for that peon job. It makes sense, given the economic distortions and the social conditions that caused it.

Instead I would try to fix those distortions in both economy and in social perceptions.

Sorry for the ramble. Over and out.

Theo_Fidel

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Theo_Fidel » 16 Sep 2015 21:40

Supratik wrote:It is a function of governance. The BIMARU states are the only hold-outs. They were also the most poorly governed states. But with SSC and VR Raj and MP has come out of it. They have shown sharp drop in pop growth.


Trend lines are OK to good but these states will still double in size. It appears to be less a politics or governance thing and more cultural.

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amitkv wrote: I doubt if these guys are in any way better than a 5th failed.


That is the very question I had. Would any of the factories around Chennai hire these folks. Nope.

One item, spoken and written English is vital in all Chennai factories. All the equipment instructions, operating manual, touch screens, signs, mangers, etc is in English. Without top of the line exposure to English these folks do not belong in a factory. As it is working out, only the best of our best get to work in the world class factories that surround cities like Chennai. They after all need to produce world class product.

There is no space for 5th standard fails anywhere in India, certainly not in our factories. I have no idea what they are going to do, one way or another we are going to have to pay them off….

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby member_29172 » 16 Sep 2015 22:54

I think that's a stupid thing to say. one language doesn't determine your success rate, unless you are working in a call centre. This chi-chi yinglish will solve everything attitude is a stupid one and quite cringeworthy. Lots of countries have developed themselves without knowing a single word of yinglish at all, USSR, China, Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Germany (although recently they've acquired a taste for it) etc. etc.

If english was the barometre of knowledge and creativity, we wouldn't be hating and cursing our yinglish media folks here on a daily basis, some of the most mentally retarded bunch I've seen. I am not sure if the 23 lakh figure is that alarming. Was it a counting error? were there dud applications? It's hard to believe half of the state applying for a single job. It's skills that matters and skills that the people in the BIMARU states seem to lack. The mai-baap congi sarkaar only kept feeding them farmer subsidies since independence. No growth targets, no training and education targets no nothing. No wonder it's the marvel of stupidity and poverty it is today. I also think your strange hatred for northerners reflects in these statements. Working in a manufacturing setting can be done better by being proficient in your skills instead of acting tfta by learning a completely foreign language.

The growth rate in BIMARU is coming down considerably, you need to go to places like Lucknow to see it yourself. Not the best city out there but atleast it doesn't look like a village anymore. Is quite ahead of what it used to be in 2000-2001 time period when I first went to Lucknow-Kanpur area. Plus, given the exploding muslim population and gobermint's aversion to stop iqbal from having 5 kids from 4 different wives, I think it'd be stupid to promote severe slowdown of birth rates.

This mighty talk about birth rates, yinglish, tfta dramabaazi is well suited for UN or world bank speeches. The ground realities are far different and they can be resolved more effectively by teaching, teaching and only teaching these people how to manufacture and produce stuff. The BIMARU belt is a human resource goldmine if manufacturing sets up shops there. Young, semi-skilled population willing to work for anything.
Even if cities like Lucknow and Kanpur take the steps, things will go a long way.

Theo_Fidel

Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby Theo_Fidel » 16 Sep 2015 23:05

I assume you have some data to back up your comments.
Present it or expose yourself to be what you appear to be....


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