Indian Military Aviation - 21 Sept 2015

All threads that are locked or marked for deletion will be moved to this forum. The topics will be cleared from this archive on the 1st and 16th of each month.
Rakesh
Forum Moderator
Posts: 8271
Joined: 15 Jan 2004 12:31
Location: Planet Earth
Contact:

Re: Indian Air Force News and Discussion - 21 Sept 2015

Postby Rakesh » 25 Oct 2016 23:31

Saar, look at the story line here. The MoD will gladly spend 8+ billion euros for 36 Rafales + who knows how many more billions (in dollars) for shiny new F-Solah, Block 70s....but they cry hoarse that six A-330 refuellers cost too much money for the IAF?

The IL-78 has not had a fairy story episode in the IAF either. KC-46 Pegasus it is.

Pegasus Pegasus Pegasus, aaja aaja aaja
Pegasus Pegasus Pegasus, aaja aaja aaja

Aajare mere saath, yeh jagi jagi raath
Pukare thuje sun, sunade wohi dhun

Pegasus Pegasus Pegasus, aaja aaja aaja
Pegasus Pegasus Pegasus, aaja aaja aaja

Gagan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11202
Joined: 16 Apr 2008 22:25

Re: Indian Air Force News and Discussion - 21 Sept 2015

Postby Gagan » 25 Oct 2016 23:50

The KC-46 is smaller than the A330MRTT, and holds 20% less fuel, and is also cheaper.
Of Note: Singapore has ordered 6 A330 MRTT, wonder where they will station these? Singapore Air Base Kalaikunda hain ji?

Rakesh
Forum Moderator
Posts: 8271
Joined: 15 Jan 2004 12:31
Location: Planet Earth
Contact:

Re: Indian Air Force News and Discussion - 21 Sept 2015

Postby Rakesh » 25 Oct 2016 23:58

As per wiki, Singapore selected the A-330MRTT over the KC-46.

Viv S
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5303
Joined: 03 Jan 2010 00:46

Re: Indian Air Force News and Discussion - 21 Sept 2015

Postby Viv S » 25 Oct 2016 23:59

Rakesh wrote:The MoD will end up with the KC-46. This is NOT about the platform. This is about the pivot to America. This is pure geopolitics. Some will call it we-are-becoming-an-American-stooge, but it is more likely we are being armed to stand against China. F-Solah, Block 70 is coming as well, with the F-35 coming right after. America is too broke to stand against China by herself, so they are arming China's neighbours as well.

Its about the platform too.

1. The KC-46 is likely to be cheaper than A-330. Partly because its a smaller lighter aircraft and partly due to high volume production for the USAF.

2. Unlike the Il-78, the KC-46 (& A-300) is capable of boom-refueling. Allows for compatibility with the P-8I, C-17 & F-16/F-35A. Will also enable quicker refueling for the C-130Js.

Rakesh
Forum Moderator
Posts: 8271
Joined: 15 Jan 2004 12:31
Location: Planet Earth
Contact:

Re: Indian Air Force News and Discussion - 21 Sept 2015

Postby Rakesh » 26 Oct 2016 00:02

Viv Saar: Since we already have the P-8I and the C-17 and the C-130...the only pieces of the puzzle left are the F-16/F-35. See Bheeshma, it is never a done deal.

Viv S
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5303
Joined: 03 Jan 2010 00:46

Re: Indian Air Force News and Discussion - 21 Sept 2015

Postby Viv S » 26 Oct 2016 00:23

Rakesh wrote:Viv Saar: Since we already have the P-8I and the C-17 and the C-130...the only pieces of the puzzle left are the F-16/F-35. See Bheeshma, it is never a done deal.

No 'saar' for me please. 'Abe' and 'oi' will do just fine. :mrgreen:

Indranil
Forum Moderator
Posts: 7978
Joined: 02 Apr 2010 01:21

Re: Indian Air Force News and Discussion - 21 Sept 2015

Postby Indranil » 26 Oct 2016 00:29

Kartik wrote:Not exactly related to transport aircraft for the IAF, but hey, its MRTT, so in a way its a part time transport too. So it's going to be KC-46, Airbus A-330 MRTT and Il-78MD-90A MRTT.

I have a few questions based on the above.

an aerial tanker to replace its seven Ilyushin Il-78MKIs

Already? They were inducted in 2003-4!!

“We talk about an open and transparent competition,” the Indian official says. “We don’t say we need this airplane or another. We state what capabilities the air force needs; whichever manufacturer can meet those needs obviously goes into the competition. It’s a global tender. Every country or industry that has the capability and can prove it will be cleared to respond

This is a welcome change. Thank you Mr. Parrikar. Thank you Mr. Modi. Thank you IAF. Please extend the same to the desi products.

Rakesh
Forum Moderator
Posts: 8271
Joined: 15 Jan 2004 12:31
Location: Planet Earth
Contact:

Re: Indian Air Force News and Discussion - 21 Sept 2015

Postby Rakesh » 26 Oct 2016 01:06

Indranil: There is a saying in procurement circles in the MoD @ New Delhi. The IAF waits for a new jet(s) to come on the scene and then they formulate a RFI based on those aircraft's specifications. Thus the IAF gets the aircraft it wants. Take a look at the latest RFI for 90 phoren, single engine, fighters. How anyone can state that it is not designed for the F-Solah, Block 70 beats me.

WRT to procurement, the MoD and the Armed Forces are like a dysfunctional family. Each trying to outsmart and undermine the other and could care less about the larger picture.

Rakesh
Forum Moderator
Posts: 8271
Joined: 15 Jan 2004 12:31
Location: Planet Earth
Contact:

Re: Indian Air Force News and Discussion - 21 Sept 2015

Postby Rakesh » 27 Oct 2016 00:17

Air Chief Marshal P V Naik (retd) endorsing the Bombay Shaving Company. Admins, I did not know where else to post this.

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=ACM+PV+Naik

Zynda
BRFite
Posts: 1726
Joined: 07 Jan 2006 00:37
Location: J4

Re: Indian Air Force News and Discussion - 21 Sept 2015

Postby Zynda » 27 Oct 2016 01:24

A few Russians were posted at NAL (when we were close) and apparently they used to go through a copy of IAF RFI and point out "this spec is taken from this aircraft" even providing page reference from Janes World Aircraft book :)

Philip
BRF Oldie
Posts: 20419
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: India

Re: Indian Air Force News and Discussion - 21 Sept 2015

Postby Philip » 27 Oct 2016 10:47

Russia, India Discuss FGFA Advanced Fighter, Su-30MKI Upgrade
Thursday, October 27, 2016
By: SPUTNIK News

On Wednesday, the India-Russia intergovernmental commission on military and technical cooperation held a meeting in New Delhi, bringing together the delegations headed by Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and his Indian counterpart Manohar Parrikar.
"We discussed… the FGFA project and [upgrade] of SU-31 MKI which is presently India's priority," the sources said on Wednesday.
The Russian-Indian FGFA has stealth capabilities and is based on the Russian T-50 prototype jet. The FGFA project came about following the signing of a Russian-Indian cooperation agreement on October 18, 2007.

ks_sachin
BRFite
Posts: 1002
Joined: 24 Jun 2000 11:31
Location: Sydney

Re: Indian Air Force News and Discussion - 21 Sept 2015

Postby ks_sachin » 27 Oct 2016 11:19

Viv S wrote:
Rakesh wrote:Viv Saar: Since we already have the P-8I and the C-17 and the C-130...the only pieces of the puzzle left are the F-16/F-35. See Bheeshma, it is never a done deal.

No 'saar' for me please. 'Abe' and 'oi' will do just fine. :mrgreen:

'Oi'? you in Oz?

Akshay Kapoor
Forum Moderator
Posts: 1625
Joined: 03 May 2011 11:15

Re: Indian Air Force News and Discussion - 21 Sept 2015

Postby Akshay Kapoor » 27 Oct 2016 14:25

Rakesh wrote:
pkudva wrote:KC-46 may be as expensive as Airbus. Sure that MOF shall reject the Funding.

IL-78 certainly looks to have an Upper Hand. Frequent Cancellations are only hurting the IAF as it been a Decade since it was Last Planned for.

Jai Hind!!!

The MoD will end up with the KC-46. This is NOT about the platform. This is about the pivot to America. This is pure geopolitics. Some will call it we-are-becoming-an-American-stooge, but it is more likely we are being armed to stand against China. F-Solah, Block 70 is coming as well, with the F-35 coming right after. America is too broke to stand against China by herself, so they are arming China's neighbours as well.


Arming India - for free ??

The reason this tender oh sorry RFI isn't it , is that when the airbus cleared all trials and IAF followed the set proceedure (set by babus) and all was fine the MOF killed the deal. That process had taken about 5 years and was killed 5 years ago ? So we have already lost a decade. Another decade will go in this new tamasha. Wake me up when any refuellers come in. For those who don't know the process and love taking potshots at the forces the proceedure is

1 service formulates a requirment
2. it is assessed by babu (ex Animal hiusbandry dept)
3. babu asks questions which are answered
4. Babu is transferred ( 2 years have passed and this baby wants to go back to state as the political party he has allegiance to has come into power so he can lord it over as a maharaja)
5. New babu comes in - go to 3
6. Acceptance of necessity is recommended
7. Goes to DAC - numerous questions are asked. Answers will be given in next DAC
8. More up and down. Media pressure. Acceptance of necessity is given
9. QRs are framed. Depending upon regime lots of pressure is applied by politicos and Babus at this stage. 10. RFI Goes out.
11. New govt has come as 5 years have past
12. RFP is given. Trials start
13. News articles form paid journalists come out.
14. Recommendation is given. But it is a one vendor situation. GO to 1 if you are realistic but if you are severely optimistic go to 15
15. Winner is announced. Loser goes to court. If you are glass half full kind go to 16
16. Negotiations start. Prices have escalated as 7 years have passed.
17. file has to go to MOF. MOF raises objections. Go to 2. Refuellers are a great example of this.

If some one is more glutton for punishment then take file to DAC, MOF again and then to CCS. And back form CCS.

That is our process. Services have very little control. Could they do some things better. Sure. VK Singh did. Look what happened.

Problem is not only MOD, it's the whole cumbersome procedure with MOF and CCS and back and forth.

Akshay Kapoor
Forum Moderator
Posts: 1625
Joined: 03 May 2011 11:15

Re: Indian Air Force News and Discussion - 21 Sept 2015

Postby Akshay Kapoor » 27 Oct 2016 14:28

Quotable quote ' I did not sign one contract during my tenure ' - ex Defence Secy.

Jai Hind. Mera Bharat Mahan

rohiths
BRFite
Posts: 399
Joined: 26 Jun 2009 21:51

Re: Indian Air Force News and Discussion - 21 Sept 2015

Postby rohiths » 27 Oct 2016 15:09

The even bigger irony is that red tape is much lesser for domestically produced arms. There is no need for RFI, RFP etc for DPSUs. The process is simpler for private cos as well. The armed forces would prefer not to have any weapons than have desi weapons

Akshay Kapoor
Forum Moderator
Posts: 1625
Joined: 03 May 2011 11:15

Re: Indian Air Force News and Discussion - 21 Sept 2015

Postby Akshay Kapoor » 27 Oct 2016 16:59

rohiths wrote:The even bigger irony is that red tape is much lesser for domestically produced arms. There is no need for RFI, RFP etc for DPSUs. The process is simpler for private cos as well. The armed forces would prefer not to have any weapons than have desi weapons


Bull shit !! Over the years I have given at east 3 examples of situations where armed forces desire for local weapons was sabotaged by the bureaucracy. Problem is some people on this forum refuse to apply their minds and read stuff in front of them. L52 Bharat Forge is one example.

Gagan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11202
Joined: 16 Apr 2008 22:25

Re: Indian Air Force News and Discussion - 21 Sept 2015

Postby Gagan » 27 Oct 2016 17:07

Why do people think our forces do brochuritis hain ji?
Because
1. There is no domestic production.
2. The politicians and babus want bribes and are not interested in domestic production, because there is no ghoos, foreign junkets or natasha. The forces can't fight this system, where the Neta-Babu combine overrules their every decision.
3. The forces are like kids, dreaming about a toy by reading comics - Parrikar has a point when he talks about RFPs being from the Marvel Comics. Can't blame them, because they put their lives on the line, pay with their blood when the need comes, and so must seek out the best equipment out there - the so called pot of Amrit.

All this because everyone has played their role in styming domestic production.

Akshay Kapoor
Forum Moderator
Posts: 1625
Joined: 03 May 2011 11:15

Re: Indian Air Force News and Discussion - 21 Sept 2015

Postby Akshay Kapoor » 27 Oct 2016 17:35

What I don't understand is that in a 20 step procurement procedure the forces have input in 2 steps all in one ministry - MOD. This does not even include the MOF and CCS. And yet when we talk about the ills of our procurement system we put all the blame on the forces. I don't get it - why this visceral hatred for the forces ? There is a huge systemic problem and yet we talk about 5 % of it. Boggles my mind. Did you read an article a few weeks ago that said 'financial powers delegated to the forces - a copr commander can now spend some 1 lac on equipment without babu permission. With permission he can do 5 times'. Just think about this for a second. Before this a chap who controls 30000-50000 lives cannot be trusted for a few thousand Rs of spending power. This means that we value our troops less than a paper clip !! Its a fact and the forces know this - that is why its so difficult to recruit these days. How many people on this forum have served ? How many would the number be if this was a US forum ? Why ? Because from a top ranaking profession after independence the sad reality now is that you are treated like dirt. Even people from fauji families do not wnat to touch the armed forces these days so battered they have been by the system. Just think about it.

'Sahab no one values us...no value for our lives'...I have heard this many many many times in combat. I know of a case who makes shoes for the US or some western army. A friend has tried them...very good and apparently not more expensive than our ordnance stuff. But despite getting support from the army he couldn't get the MOD to give him a chance. Do you that an army commander (responsible for 1-2 lac lives) cannot reject the substandard vegetables that are procured by the ASC...because the contractor has the MOD sewn up. A dear friend who is in the Navy (Wesse at that time) was part of the signing of team for INS Kolkatta. There were massive issues with some systems (I think communication - BEL made). He got calls from ministry threatening him to sign off or else..

I am not saying that we don't need domestic production or simpler QRs are needed - I would happily scrap 90 pct of imports and dilute many QRs IF the Indian pvt sector and forces were able to work together to create a MIl. But they are NOT. Every time the forces want to work with pvt sector they get a huge kick up their backsides. Problem is our system and our mentality.


SandeepS
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 40
Joined: 22 Dec 2009 02:34
Location: Cuckoo-land

Re: Indian Air Force News and Discussion - 21 Sept 2015

Postby SandeepS » 31 Oct 2016 05:11

Let me illustrate what Akshay has been trying to convey with an article from our very own BRF by none other than Air Marshal S Raghavendran, VCAS. He has gone to into great details to explain the ACTUAL decision-making process of MoD babus that he & his Ops team faced every time they wanted to acquire any equipment. Spend 10 min & you will be a lot wiser in who really wields the power of decision-making and who just carries the can.

Honey, I shrunk the funds! by Air Marshal S Raghavendran

shiv
BRF Oldie
Posts: 34982
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Pindliyon ka Gooda

Re: Indian Air Force News and Discussion - 21 Sept 2015

Postby shiv » 31 Oct 2016 05:55

SandeepS wrote:Let me illustrate what Akshay has been trying to convey with an article from our very own BRF by none other than Air Marshal S Raghavendran, VCAS. He has gone to into great details to explain the ACTUAL decision-making process of MoD babus that he & his Ops team faced every time they wanted to acquire any equipment. Spend 10 min & you will be a lot wiser in who really wields the power of decision-making and who just carries the can.

Honey, I shrunk the funds! by Air Marshal S Raghavendran

Thanks for posting. But we must also understand that telling the truth makes no difference and actually may make things worse.

Cross post from the other forum
How does misinformation spread online?

But couldn’t we combat that by spreading better information?

No. In fact, there is evidence that this only makes things worse.

In another study, we found that people interested in a conspiracy theory are likely to become more involved in the conversation when exposed to "debunking". In other words, the more the exposure to contrasting information a person is given, the more it reinforces their consumption pattern. Debunking within an echo chamber can backfire, and reinforce people’s bias.


What can be done to fight misinformation?

Misinformation online is very difficult to correct. Confirmation bias is extremely powerful. Once people have found "evidence" of their views, external and contradicting versions are simply ignored.



Gyan
BRFite
Posts: 1277
Joined: 26 Aug 2016 19:14

Re: Indian Air Force News and Discussion - 21 Sept 2015

Postby Gyan » 31 Oct 2016 21:06

Zynda wrote:A few Russians were posted at NAL (when we were close) and apparently they used to go through a copy of IAF RFI and point out "this spec is taken from this aircraft" even providing page reference from Janes World Aircraft book :)


I think GSQRs should be drafted by a joint team of DRDO, Military' and MOD.

Cain Marko
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3938
Joined: 26 Jun 2005 10:26

Re: Indian Air Force News and Discussion - 21 Sept 2015

Postby Cain Marko » 01 Nov 2016 07:49

Ahem, some experts from BR might also be consulted if you ask me :) After all there are folks here who have contributed enough to publish multiple theses.

ks_sachin
BRFite
Posts: 1002
Joined: 24 Jun 2000 11:31
Location: Sydney

Re: Indian Air Force News and Discussion - 21 Sept 2015

Postby ks_sachin » 01 Nov 2016 08:05

Cain Marko wrote:Ahem, some experts from BR might also be consulted if you ask me :) After all there are folks here who have contributed enough to publish multiple theses.


Well said..

Gyan
BRFite
Posts: 1277
Joined: 26 Aug 2016 19:14

Re: Indian Air Force News and Discussion - 21 Sept 2015

Postby Gyan » 01 Nov 2016 10:23

BRF Is repository of loads of people with life long interest in Defense issues with no self interest. They are a better resource then IAS lobby on short tenures who just want to make money from lucrative posting with no consequences.

zoverian
BRFite
Posts: 228
Joined: 16 Aug 2016 10:58

Re: Indian Air Force News and Discussion - 21 Sept 2015

Postby zoverian » 01 Nov 2016 11:51

Gyan wrote:BRF Is repository of loads of people with life long interest in Defense issues with no self interest. They are a better resource then IAS lobby on short tenures who just want to make money from lucrative posting with no consequences.


+1

Philip
BRF Oldie
Posts: 20419
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: India

Re: Indian Air Force News and Discussion - 21 Sept 2015

Postby Philip » 01 Nov 2016 12:06

The showing off in public of the Chinese J-20 stealth bird at the Zhuhai air show will hopefully accelerate sealing the deal.
What beats me is that our current insistence for the very latest of the latest in tech,forgetting that superior training,tactics and skills allowed us in all our past wars with Pak to win the aerial battle with supposedly inferior aircraft.Tiny Gnats brought down a Mirage-3,Sabres et al,and our MIG-21s ruled the roost in '71.It was only from Kargil onwards,when we had Mirage-2000s and MIG-29s (that scared the sh*ts out of the PAF) and the arrival of the SU_30s and later MKIs,that we for the first time since Independence had a qualitative edge over the Pakis and Chinese.

However,the Chinese have made astonishing progress,catching up v.fast with the Russians and US in certain areas.Moreover,their ability to mass produce such high-tech items,unlike inferior milware earlier,is scary.They will have from 2020 onwards,vast numbers of top-of-the-line milware which nations like India will not be able to match .We therefore need a mix of affordable fighters (LCA type/cost) plus cutting edge force-multipliers like the FGFA,etc. The sooner decisions are sealed the better,as it will still take at least 3-5 years before any "food" arrives on the table.

http://defencenews.in/article/Russia-ex ... -end-29020
Russia expects to ink FGFA deal with India by Dec-end
Tuesday, November 01, 2016
By: TNN

Russia expects to reach an agreement with India for the joint development of Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft (FGFA) for the Indian Air Force by December. The aircraft, known as the Perspective Multi-role Fighter (PMF) in India, will be based on Russia's PAK-FA T-50 jet fighter but will boast a radar and avionics suite that could be superior to the prototype.

"From our end, the agreement has been completed. There are, however, some formalities to get through. I think the agreement can be signed by the end of this year," the head of Rostec state corporation, Sergei Chemezov, said, adding, "We have pretty much finalized details. The onus is now on the Indian government."

Confirming the developments, a senior official of Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) said that a formal announcement had been expected at the Brics summit, but that certain issues caused the formal inking of the agreement to be "missed by a whisker".

On whether the FGFA would include technology that is currently being developed for the sixth generation fighter aircraft that Russia is working on, Chemezov said, "The sixth generation aircraft is not really something we can seriously discuss right now as it is too far off. PAK-FA features can be introduced in the FGFA but, more importantly, one has to realize that this is a plane that will be developed jointly with India's engineers and constructors.

"I see, very realistically, that something such as avionics and radar detection would be even more improved and that would make the Indian FGFA more advanced than the PAK-FA that was introduced last year," he added.

Rostec is a Russian state-owned umbrella organization of 700 hi-tech civilian and military firms.

rakall
BRFite
Posts: 798
Joined: 10 May 2005 10:26

Re: Indian Air Force News and Discussion - 21 Sept 2015

Postby rakall » 01 Nov 2016 19:04

The induction/retirement schedule of different fighter jets in IAF..

Image

This leads to a squadron strength variation as below:

Image


Clearly, even in the most optimistic scenario the IAF will not realize the sanctioned squadron strength (45 squadrons) in the next 20 years. If the induction of fighter jets follows the nominal induction path, except for 4years between 2016-2020, the IAF will operate below existing squadron levels for the major part of next 17years. Therefore, it is imperative that IAF & MoD coordinate well to chase the “optimistic induction path”. Only such proactive planning will ensure a suitable squadron strength for IAF in the longer term. Nevertheless, the bad news is that the IAF will have to operate at a low 32-33 squadrons during 2019-2024.

The very low squadron strength between 2019-2024, and ofcourse lower than sanctioned strength in foreseeable future makes the S400 acquisition all the more important..
http://swarajyamag.com/defence/understa ... on-the-iaf

JayS
Forum Moderator
Posts: 4480
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Indian Air Force News and Discussion - 21 Sept 2015

Postby JayS » 01 Nov 2016 22:09

Nice charts.

So in 2030, when our existing Medium class fighters retire in 2030, what would stop from SEF_MII to replace that one?? If F16 is chosen, it can very well fill those empty slots. Because, lets face it with the speed with which things are going, AMCA will not be production ready until 2035. That means there could be a gap of 6+3+3-5=4 Sq of Gap. (assuming FGFA will come as expected). If we consider that 200 nos being talked about SEF_MII is true we can see that it means total 10 Sq = 6+4. Which means we fulfill those 4 Sq with SEF_MII.

Ideally this gap should have been filled by LCA. But even this does not happen, still IAF is well short of full Sq strength and going by the increasing Chinese threat we should be aiming for upwards of 50-60 Sq. So LCA MK2 has still a lot of space to come in in numbers. Then why GOI is not ready to commit to LCA fully?? Why we do not talk of 00's of LCAs and stop at 120?? If we have to do something in 2030s we should be planning now. This is sheer blindness to the future.

rakall
BRFite
Posts: 798
Joined: 10 May 2005 10:26

Re: Indian Air Force News and Discussion - 21 Sept 2015

Postby rakall » 01 Nov 2016 22:27

JayS wrote:Nice charts.

So in 2030, when our existing Medium class fighters retire in 2030, what would stop from SEF_MII to replace that one?? If F16 is chosen, it can very well fill those empty slots. Because, lets face it with the speed with which things are going, AMCA will not be production ready until 2035. That means there could be a gap of 6+3+3-5=4 Sq of Gap. (assuming FGFA will come as expected). If we consider that 200 nos being talked about SEF_MII is true we can see that it means total 10 Sq = 6+4. Which means we fulfill those 4 Sq with SEF_MII.

Ideally this gap should have been filled by LCA. But even this does not happen, still IAF is well short of full Sq strength and going by the increasing Chinese threat we should be aiming for upwards of 50-60 Sq. So LCA MK2 has still a lot of space to come in in numbers. Then why GOI is not ready to commit to LCA fully?? Why we do not talk of 00's of LCAs and stop at 120?? If we have to do something in 2030s we should be planning now. This is sheer blindness to the future.


My original estimation was that if AMCA is ready, then Mirage/Mig29/Jaguar replacement will be AMCA.. But, Yes.. we can extend production of both Tejas Mk1A & the SEF_MII to improve squadron numbers..

When I made the charts, I estimated 120 Tejas & 120 SEF_MII.. But in last 2days the news is coming of 200 SEF_MII.

It is heart breaking that we plump so much for imported fighters, and not for Tejas. My heart is still set on 150-160 Tejas & about the same numbers of SEF_MII. Lets see how it goes.. I dont think the deal for SEF_MII is going to be easy.. India specific modifications & shifting of production line may highly increase the cost of the fighter.. BK estimates F16 ending up as costly as Rafale (though I always take BK with some salt).. but the main point is cost of F16/Gripen will increase a lot with MakeInIndia factors & duplicating production line
https://bharatkarnad.com/2016/11/01/gut ... -zindabad/

Cain Marko
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3938
Joined: 26 Jun 2005 10:26

Re: Indian Air Force News and Discussion - 21 Sept 2015

Postby Cain Marko » 01 Nov 2016 23:09

rakall wrote:The induction/retirement schedule of different fighter jets in IAF..

Image

This leads to a squadron strength variation as below:

Image


Clearly, even in the most optimistic scenario the IAF will not realize the sanctioned squadron strength (45 squadrons) in the next 20 years. If the induction of fighter jets follows the nominal induction path, except for 4years between 2016-2020, the IAF will operate below existing squadron levels for the major part of next 17years. Therefore, it is imperative that IAF & MoD coordinate well to chase the “optimistic induction path”. Only such proactive planning will ensure a suitable squadron strength for IAF in the longer term. Nevertheless, the bad news is that the IAF will have to operate at a low 32-33 squadrons during 2019-2024.

The very low squadron strength between 2019-2024, and ofcourse lower than sanctioned strength in foreseeable future makes the S400 acquisition all the more important..
http://swarajyamag.com/defence/understa ... on-the-iaf


Great work Rakall. one nitpick

M2Ks wont retire that early.

Another thing is that the single engine MII fighter could potentially see deliveries a lot earlier than the estimated 2022 framework.

nachiket
Forum Moderator
Posts: 7306
Joined: 02 Dec 2008 10:49

Re: Indian Air Force News and Discussion - 21 Sept 2015

Postby nachiket » 01 Nov 2016 23:18

Cain Marko wrote:M2Ks wont retire that early.

We have to keep in mind that the M2k upgrade does not include new engines, unlike the Mig-29 upgrade. I know that French build quality is top notch, but how long will those engines last? Most of our M2ks were bought in the early-mid 80's

rakall
BRFite
Posts: 798
Joined: 10 May 2005 10:26

Re: Indian Air Force News and Discussion - 21 Sept 2015

Postby rakall » 01 Nov 2016 23:30

Cain Marko wrote:
Great work Rakall. one nitpick

M2Ks wont retire that early.

Another thing is that the single engine MII fighter could potentially see deliveries a lot earlier than the estimated 2022 framework.


I really considered the likelyhood of upgrade affecting the retirement.. but upgrade only involves Radar, Weapon & Cockpit upgrades.. No life extension or structural work.. So all available material pointed to retirement in 2030. No mention of extended service anywhere.. Imagine 2030 is still 15years away for an airframe that already served 25-30yrs.. Ofcourse, it is good if it serves longer..

Anyway we now have a baseline picture.. if info becomes available - can update accordingly..

However, lets see if re-engine of Jags allows them to serve longer; As late as last week ACM Raha said Jags will go for engine upgrade.

RohitAM
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 47
Joined: 25 Oct 2016 21:28

Re: Indian Air Force News and Discussion - 21 Sept 2015

Postby RohitAM » 01 Nov 2016 23:54

Ideally this gap should have been filled by LCA. But even this does not happen, still IAF is well short of full Sq strength and going by the increasing Chinese threat we should be aiming for upwards of 50-60 Sq. So LCA MK2 has still a lot of space to come in in numbers. Then why GOI is not ready to commit to LCA fully?? Why we do not talk of 00's of LCAs and stop at 120?? If we have to do something in 2030s we should be planning now. This is sheer blindness to the future.


Three things to be noted here are that one, the IAF might not have the budgetary support to afford a 50-60 squadron force; two, the LCA needs full-blown institutional support in order to be brought into production in significant numbers (at least two squadrons worth every year, though I would like more), which it doesn't have, especially from the IAF side; and three, the PLAAF is downsizing as it attempts to replace quantity with quality - anyone thinking that the thousands of J-7's etc can be replaced on a one-to-one basis by the J-11's, let alone the J-20's and J-31's, is badly mistaken. At a stretch (and its a very large stretch), I'm not expecting the PLAAF to have more than 2000 fighters in service by 2030. On top of that, given the number of feathers they have ruffled around themselves, in an outright war, I do not expect to see the PLAAF being able to commit any more than a quarter of that number to the Far East theatre, and that's without aggressive posturing from Taiwan, Japan, and/or Vietnam. Getting snarky with the first two brings the US Pacific Fleet steaming on to the Chinese Eastern Seaboard, the bedrock on which China stands. With the PAF expected to degrade significantly over the same decade (there is only so much a beggar can do to keep himself going), a 40-45 squadron IAF with quality equipment and a fairly equivalent technological standing should be able to at least stalemate the Eastern Theatre in a two front war, while laying waste to the retards across our Western border.

Gyan
BRFite
Posts: 1277
Joined: 26 Aug 2016 19:14

Re: Indian Air Force News and Discussion - 21 Sept 2015

Postby Gyan » 02 Nov 2016 00:58

Note:- Hot Section of western engines is changed after a few hundred hours along with a major overhaul. This represents practically a new engine with 60-70% components being changed every decade or so.

Secondly IAF average usage of aircraft is 1/4th of hours imagined by BRF jingos. Like average utilisation of Su-30MKI is around 75 hours per annum.

brar_w
BRF Oldie
Posts: 8263
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Indian Air Force News and Discussion - 21 Sept 2015

Postby brar_w » 02 Nov 2016 01:08

Hot Section of western engines is changed after a few hundred hours along with a major overhaul.


The entire spec has been shared for the GE404/414 families. No major costly component is changed that frequently. I have also provided the cost of each of the replaced components so you can calculate exactly what cost is and when.

ramana
Forum Moderator
Posts: 53956
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: Indian Air Force News and Discussion - 21 Sept 2015

Postby ramana » 02 Nov 2016 01:12

rakall, Very good article gives a data driven perspective to discuss.

Kudos.

JayS
Forum Moderator
Posts: 4480
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Indian Air Force News and Discussion - 21 Sept 2015

Postby JayS » 02 Nov 2016 01:53

RohitAM wrote:Three things to be noted here are that one, the IAF might not have the budgetary support to afford a 50-60 squadron force; two, the LCA needs full-blown institutional support in order to be brought into production in significant numbers (at least two squadrons worth every year, though I would like more), which it doesn't have, especially from the IAF side; and three, the PLAAF is downsizing as it attempts to replace quantity with quality - anyone thinking that the thousands of J-7's etc can be replaced on a one-to-one basis by the J-11's, let alone the J-20's and J-31's, is badly mistaken. At a stretch (and its a very large stretch), I'm not expecting the PLAAF to have more than 2000 fighters in service by 2030. On top of that, given the number of feathers they have ruffled around themselves, in an outright war, I do not expect to see the PLAAF being able to commit any more than a quarter of that number to the Far East theatre, and that's without aggressive posturing from Taiwan, Japan, and/or Vietnam. Getting snarky with the first two brings the US Pacific Fleet steaming on to the Chinese Eastern Seaboard, the bedrock on which China stands. With the PAF expected to degrade significantly over the same decade (there is only so much a beggar can do to keep himself going), a 40-45 squadron IAF with quality equipment and a fairly equivalent technological standing should be able to at least stalemate the Eastern Theatre in a two front war, while laying waste to the retards across our Western border.


Well, I am talking about time around 2030. So LCA should be able to go 25/yr (Even 40/yr if need be) by that time for sure if planned accordingly, even in worst case scenario (if we can't do that, we are in deep shit already). Our economy is growing fast. Even at constant 2% defense budget IAF should get more money in 2030s and 2040s. As such the budget depends on threat perception and force requirement. And 55Sq or 65Sq is not my number that I pulled out of my musharraf. Its been there for long time. I would not assume that China will not have a large force. Remember they are not preparing against India, they are preparing to counter US. That means significant number is imperative. They have money, manufacturing capacity, will power and intent to field excessively large number of next-gen fighters. But these arguments, one way or the other, do not have very strong base now. Next 5-10 yrs will make picture more clear and then GOI can set the required number of Sq needed. True that they will not field entire force on our border. So is true for us to. We will have to defend not only north/West but south side as well. Hence the entire logic of two front war. And don't forget, arming Pak is way cheaper for China against India, and they can make Pakis actually use those weapons with impunity. If I were China, I would always make sure Pakis have decent force.

This quality vs quantity is a never ending debate. But I believe that there are fairly large number of missions with relatively lower sophistication requirements from the fighter. Its waste of resources to put uber class tfta jets for those, especially when we have cheap alternatives available. I still see a good deal of work that LCA could do in 2030's and 2040's in the event of war. Finally it depends on the tactics as much as the fighters as well.

JayS
Forum Moderator
Posts: 4480
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: Indian Air Force News and Discussion - 21 Sept 2015

Postby JayS » 02 Nov 2016 02:01

Gyan wrote:Note:- Hot Section of western engines is changed after a few hundred hours along with a major overhaul. This represents practically a new engine with 60-70% components being changed every decade or so.

Secondly IAF average usage of aircraft is 1/4th of hours imagined by BRF jingos. Like average utilisation of Su-30MKI is around 75 hours per annum.


Way off the mark on Hot section parts. For example the F414 HPT parts have life of 2000hr in base version and 6000hr in EDE version. It does not constitute 60-70%, by any matrix, neither by part counts, nor by cost. If what you say is specific to M2K engines, I dont know, but its certainly not true for typical western engine. Heck even Su-30 engine doesn't have HPT parts replaced in few hundred hrs.

IAF utilisation of Su-30MKI was lower than assumed 1500hrs or 10yrs for overhaul by OEM. So it was extended to 14yrs of 1500. That means ~100hr/yr is assumed. That number should be in line with actual flight hours.

Gyan
BRFite
Posts: 1277
Joined: 26 Aug 2016 19:14

Re: Indian Air Force News and Discussion - 21 Sept 2015

Postby Gyan » 02 Nov 2016 10:29

brar_w wrote:
Hot Section of western engines is changed after a few hundred hours along with a major overhaul.


The entire spec has been shared for the GE404/414 families. No major costly component is changed that frequently. I have also provided the cost of each of the replaced components so you can calculate exactly what cost is and when.


Link the post where you have provided the cost of components. In any case, I think my post is being misread. I am not saying few hundred hours as in 2-3 hundred hours but meant ~2000 hours in more than a decade. Mirage 2000 has spent 30 years flying so around 3000 hours. Difficult to believe that no hot section replacement contemplated even after another 20 years.


Return to “Trash Can Archive”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 30 guests